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Title: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: alan trowel hands. on November 12, 2010, 02:25:05 PM
The current ideas seems to suggest a very long existence in SW Asia/Asia Minor for R, R1 and earlier forms of R1b (even early M269 forms?) before a sudden Neolithic/Copper Age burst west.  The period before the sudden burst westwards was probably immensely long.  I think R1 was estimated on SNP evidence to be 15000BC-ish) and there is no evidence of much European presence until upstream forms that are unlikely to pre-date the Neolithic in Europe.  So, basically a heck of a lot of us R1b1b2 folks ancestry as 'R' people is an Asian (or Asia Minor?) one.  Lets say for arguements sake we are talking at least 10,000 years (c. 15000BC to 5000BC) between R1 and the appearance of forms downstream of M269 in Europe.  Thats a lot of SW Asian ancestry.  It makes me wonder what Palaeolithic, Mesolithic and early Neolithic cultures harboured our ancestors.  Obviously we need a know the 'where' aspect in a little more detail first.  It still feels very vaguely defined.  I would like to hear any thoughts on the earliest ancestral homelands say from R1 to M269 and perhaps a little downstream again.   



Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Jean M on November 12, 2010, 04:24:04 PM
Here's a map illustrating my current thinking: http://www.buildinghistory.org/distantpast/images/SpecR1b.jpg

R is old enough to need an LGM refuge. The southern Caspian seemed plausible.
 
Quote
So it seems that among the steppe peoples, some tribes were dominated by haplogroup R1a1a, and others by R1b1b2. Judging by the end results, the Volga-Ural region, whence sprang the Afanasievo and Andronovo Cultures, was strong in R1a1a, while the region around the Sea of Azov was strong in R1b1b2. Since earlier forms of R1b appear in the Levant and seem connected to the spread of the Neolithic to Africa, we may hazard a guess that R1b1b2 had fed into the steppe with pastoralists. Yet there is a much older link between the Volga-Ural region and the southern Caspian basin. The Yangelskaya Culture which appears in the former area around 9000 BC is virtually identical with finds in the latter area. Contacts between the two areas continued even into the Neolithic.*  Here we have a clue that Mesolithic people carrying R1 may have moved between summer quarters on the steppe and winter quarters in the more sheltered forest fringing the southern Caspian. Transport by boat was within their power. Indeed images of rowing boats, though of later date, appear among the famed petroglyphs of Gobustan beside the Caspian in South-East Azerbaijan. We can deduce that R1a arose among those of their descendants who settled on the steppe, while R1b appeared among those descendants who favoured the southern homeland, and became involved in agriculture earlier. If their descendants were among those who developed dairy farming in western Anatolia, then R1b-L23 could have entered south-eastern Europe with dairy farmers, who then spread east onto the steppe. This does not rule out the possibility of an entry via the Caucasus. People of the Maikop Culture could have carried it.

* G. Matyushin, The Mesolithic and Neolithic in the southern Urals and Central Asia, chapter 10 in M. Zvelebil (ed.), Hunters in transition: Mesolithic societies of temperate Eurasia and their transition to farming (1986), p. 146.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 12, 2010, 04:58:57 PM
This is purely speculative Alan, but I think in a broad sense this is what the current data shows using germline mutation rates.  Dates, cultures, and locations are approximate.

Late UP
R1-15000BC - somewhere near modern-day Afghanistan, Iran, or south Kazakhstan
R1b343- 15000-10000BC?-Iran
early R1a - 15000-10000BC? - Kazakhstan, eastern Iran

Mesolithic
R1b1 - SW Asia - Natufian and pre-pottery neolithic cultures?
R1bM269 - Armenia, East Asia Minor
R1bM73 - South Caucasus

Neolithic, here's where it's more controversial

R1bM269 - 5000 BC - early dairy farmers of SE Europe Neolithic....and/or possibly South Caucasus
R1bL23 and M73(IE hypothesis)- 4500-3500 BC - Lower Volga, NE Caucasus region - Sredny Stog and early Maikop cultures, and links L23 to the Uralic people
R1bL23(SE Europe hypothesis) 4000-3500 BC - descendants of earlier dairy farmers, major hg in the "Kurganized" Cernavoda-Ezero complex with links from Hungary to Asia Minor

Copper/Bronze Ages
R1bL51(IE) - c. 3000 BC - Yamnaya migrations from the steppe to Hungary
R1bL51(SE Eur.) - 3600-3000 BC - possibly "Kurganized"Baden and Vucedol cultures, however transition to proto-Italo-Celtic was brought by steppe invaders
R1bL11 - 3000-2500 BC - transition to Beaker culture and early Celtic from Vucedol and/or Yamnaya in Hungary or Croatia
R1b P312 - 2500BC? -SW Germany, SE France, or Switzerland - Beaker culture/Celtic speakers


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: alan trowel hands. on November 12, 2010, 05:50:19 PM
This is purely speculative Alan, but I think in a broad sense this is what the current data shows using germline mutation rates.  Dates and locations are appoximate.

Late UP
R1-15000BC - somewhere near modern-day Afghanistan, Iran, or south Kazakhstan
R1b343- 15000-10000BC?-Iran
early R1a - 15000-10000BC? - Kazakhstan, eastern Iran

Mesolithic
R1b1 - SW Asia - Natufian and pre-pottery neolithic cultures?
R1bM269 - Armenia, East Asia Minor
R1bM73 - South Caucasus

Neolithic, here's where it's more controversial

R1bM269 - 5000 BC - early dairy farmers of SE Europe Neolithic....and/or possibly South Caucasus
R1bL23 and M73(IE hypothesis)- 4500-3500 BC - Lower Volga, NE Caucasus region - Sredny Stog and early Maikop cultures, and links L23 to the Uralic people
R1bL23(SE Europe hypothesis) 4000-3500 BC - descendants of earlier dairy farmers, major hg in the "Kurganized" Cernavoda-Ezero complex with links from Hungary to Asia Minor

Copper/Bronze Ages
R1bL51(IE) - c. 3000 BC - Yamnaya migrations from the steppe to Hungary
R1bL51(SE Eur.) - 3600-3000 BC - possibly "Kurganized"Baden and Vucedol cultures, however transition to proto-Italo-Celtic was brought by steppe invaders
R1bL11 - 3000-2500 BC - transition to Beaker culture and early Celtic from Vucedol and/or Yamnaya in Hungary or Croatia
R1b P312 - 2500BC? -SW Germany, SE France, or Switzerland - Beaker culture/Celtic speakers

Well you have faced the question head on!  Interesting stuff.  I agree with Jean that we must think in term of some sort of refugia during the upper Palaeolithic.  We also need to think of the effect of the Younger Dryas although I am not familiar with the effect of it in the east. I dont find high upland areas like Afghanistan a likely refugia zone either in the ice age or the Younger Dryas.  Surely more southerly/lower/lake areas are most likely.   


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 12, 2010, 06:29:48 PM
I'm not sure about the climate in Iran or those other areas during the LGM, but people might have sheltered in the valleys of the Zagros or Hindu Kush. 


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 12, 2010, 06:50:23 PM
Here is a map of the terrain at the time of the LGM.  It looks like most of the area I mentioned above was savanna at the time.  This would be ideal for hunter-gatherers and nearby mountain valleys would be available during times of extreme cold.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Last_glacial_vegetation_map.png


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: A.D. on November 13, 2010, 11:34:47 PM
Wasn't this before the flooding of the black sea. Your man Ballard (the Titanic fella) took a we looksy with his `submersibles'. There was a TV program about it . I think they said that they were hunter gatherers who lived there and moved West. I think the dates for the flood were 7'000 BC.   


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 14, 2010, 12:04:55 PM
This map is for around 22000-18000 kya.  The Black sea flood you're referring to was a result of rising sea levels after the younger dryas event.  This caused the rivers like the Don and Volga to empty an enormous amount of glacial meltwater into the northern Black and Caspian seas.  The overflow went through the Bosporus into the Mediterranean.  The Caspian at one time extended much farther north.  By the Neolithic or so, they returned to present levels.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: alan trowel hands. on November 14, 2010, 01:52:29 PM
This map is for around 22000-18000 kya.  The Black sea flood you're referring to was a result of rising sea levels after the younger dryas event.  This caused the rivers like the Don and Volga to empty an enormous amount of glacial meltwater into the northern Black and Caspian seas.  The overflow went through the Bosporus into the Mediterranean.  The Caspian at one time extended much farther north.  By the Neolithic or so, they returned to present levels.

Yes we really would need a sequence of similar maps showing the state of play at several points from the Last Glacial Maximum through to 8000BC.  All that time wasted brushing up on the climatological and archaeological sequences relating to western Europe a couple of years ago lol !! Now it seems our ancestors were in SW Asia or adjacent parts of extreme eastern edge of Europe at the time. Oh well.   I have not much knowledge at all about the Palaeolithic and Mesolithic of that area.  I vaguely recall that after the Aurignacian and Gravetian stages, the east remained in a Gravetian or epi-Gravetian stage while the west passed through Soluterian and Magdallenian phases among others (pardon all spellings!!).  I also recall that the eastern late Gravetian groups lived in harder climatic conditions and are thought to be more cold adapted in terms of technology compared to the relatively hospitable conditions in the western refugia.  However my knowledge is extremely limited on the subject.  

I suppose we were still in the R1 stage about the time of the LGM.  I wonder if it was the younger dryas that drove the ancestors of R1b south of the Black Sea area and into the early farming zone while R1a were perhaps those who remained north in a hunter gathering condition for longer.  Certainly the younger dryas has been credited with prompting the peoples of the middle east to commence farming.  However, if R1b did not generally spread west until the copper age (and that still is an IF) then that would imply that R1b was not in the path of the great farming movements from Asia Minor, through he Balkans or the Med. Cardial route.  If it was, it would surely have been swept along westwards.  That would (again assuming those who date European R1b1b2 to the copper age are correct) mean it must have been somewhere to the north of the cradle of farming but south of R1a.  So, perhaps it can be placed somewhere around the Caucuses or perhaps peripheral areas of Asia Minor. I like the idea of it being associated with the origin of dairying in NW Turkey. On the other hand I do not think the possibility of a spread with the first farmers is dead yet.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 14, 2010, 06:45:19 PM
In the second post, Jean has a plausible expanation for R1a and how they could have spread north towards the steppe and Urals several thousand years before R1b would have arrived.  It seems that R1a remained as foragers while R1b stayed south and adopted pastoralism, but neither were significantly present in the early farming peoples of SE Europe. 


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: IALEM on November 15, 2010, 05:37:18 AM
This is purely speculative Alan, but I think in a broad sense this is what the current data shows using germline mutation rates.  Dates, cultures, and locations are approximate.

Late UP
R1-15000BC - somewhere near modern-day Afghanistan, Iran, or south Kazakhstan
R1b343- 15000-10000BC?-Iran
early R1a - 15000-10000BC? - Kazakhstan, eastern Iran

Mesolithic
R1b1 - SW Asia - Natufian and pre-pottery neolithic cultures?
R1bM269 - Armenia, East Asia Minor
R1bM73 - South Caucasus

Neolithic, here's where it's more controversial

R1bM269 - 5000 BC - early dairy farmers of SE Europe Neolithic....and/or possibly South Caucasus
R1bL23 and M73(IE hypothesis)- 4500-3500 BC - Lower Volga, NE Caucasus region - Sredny Stog and early Maikop cultures, and links L23 to the Uralic people
R1bL23(SE Europe hypothesis) 4000-3500 BC - descendants of earlier dairy farmers, major hg in the "Kurganized" Cernavoda-Ezero complex with links from Hungary to Asia Minor

Copper/Bronze Ages
R1bL51(IE) - c. 3000 BC - Yamnaya migrations from the steppe to Hungary
R1bL51(SE Eur.) - 3600-3000 BC - possibly "Kurganized"Baden and Vucedol cultures, however transition to proto-Italo-Celtic was brought by steppe invaders
R1bL11 - 3000-2500 BC - transition to Beaker culture and early Celtic from Vucedol and/or Yamnaya in Hungary or Croatia
R1b P312 - 2500BC? -SW Germany, SE France, or Switzerland - Beaker culture/Celtic speakers
I think Yamnaya is most probable R1a, since descendant cultures like Andronovo already have thata attested.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: secherbernard on November 15, 2010, 06:04:05 AM
Copper/Bronze Ages
R1bL51(IE) - c. 3000 BC - Yamnaya migrations from the steppe to Hungary
R1bL51(SE Eur.) - 3600-3000 BC - possibly "Kurganized"Baden and Vucedol cultures, however transition to proto-Italo-Celtic was brought by steppe invaders
R1bL11 - 3000-2500 BC - transition to Beaker culture and early Celtic from Vucedol and/or Yamnaya in Hungary or Croatia
R1b P312 - 2500BC? -SW Germany, SE France, or Switzerland - Beaker culture/Celtic speakers
I think Yamnaya is most probable R1a, since descendant cultures like Andronovo already have thata attested.
Yes I am agree. I think R1b went from Black Sea to Iberia in boats. Then, Bell Beakers spread in Europe along sea shores and rivers. Bell Beakers were primarily sailors.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: A.D. on November 15, 2010, 06:31:11 AM
The Black Sea deluge  hypothesis by William Ryan and Walter Pitman 1997.
This is what I was Reffering too but it has far more critics than when I 1st heard it.
I don't know if the` jurys out' still or it's completely discredited or even if it would have made any differanc to halotype spread.
The thing that always gets me is that peoples/cultures manage to do what appears all but impossable to get some where then dissapeare for reasons that seem far less challenging. This is proabgly down to my lack of in-depth knowledge or over simplefacation.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 15, 2010, 09:44:57 AM
The current ideas seems to suggest a very long existence in SW Asia/Asia Minor for R, R1 and earlier forms of R1b (even early M269 forms?) before a sudden Neolithic/Copper Age burst west.  The period before the sudden burst westwards was probably immensely long.  I think R1 was estimated on SNP evidence to be 15000BC-ish) and there is no evidence of much European presence until upstream forms that are unlikely to pre-date the Neolithic in Europe.  So, basically a heck of a lot of us R1b1b2 folks ancestry as 'R' people is an Asian (or Asia Minor?) one.  Lets say for arguements sake we are talking at least 10,000 years (c. 15000BC to 5000BC) between R1 and the appearance of forms downstream of M269 in Europe.  Thats a lot of SW Asian ancestry.  It makes me wonder what Palaeolithic, Mesolithic and early Neolithic cultures harboured our ancestors.  Obviously we need a know the 'where' aspect in a little more detail first.  It still feels very vaguely defined.  I would like to hear any thoughts on the earliest ancestral homelands say from R1 to M269 and perhaps a little downstream again.    
I put together a chart from the Myres data that shows the mix of the R-L11 (U106 & P312 & L11*) and it's lineage back to M343 (R1b). This doesn't get us all the way back to R1 but here is the chart and underlying table.
http://tiny.cc/9gahy

I call it a "brothers and cousins" chart but it is just technique similar to what Vince V has shown before. It looks like our 2nd cousins have a bigger share of the M343 family back in Asia.  Just from a cursory look, my initial thought was M343 is from Central Asia and M269 (R1b1b2) expanded out of SW Asia.

If the Myres data is anything close to representative, we really should be talking about M269 in Western Europe.... to be more accurate/granular, R-L11 (R1b1b2a1a) is R-M269's representative in Western Europe..
http://www.isogg.org/tree/ISOGG_HapgrpR.html

In the "brothers and cousins" chart, Central Asia represents what Myres calls the "Circum-Uralic Region".  Russia is in Northeast Europe on the Chart. I put Italy in SE Europe although my real inclination is to put N.Italy in NW or SW Europe and Central & S.Italy in SE Europe.

By the way, does "Circum" mean the Artic Circle or what are they talking about there?


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 15, 2010, 11:06:09 AM
I think Yamnaya is most probable R1a, since descendant cultures like Andronovo already have thata attested.

R1a was most likely present in Yamnaya, but Andronovo is not a descendant culture.   Andronovo has more in common with an eastern shift of Corded-ware (originally northern forest-dwellers) then to Middle Dnieper, and a few others ending at the southern Urals. This explains the R1a aDNA being found in Corded-ware, Andronovo, Scythians, and so on.  Yamnaya was western-oriented and about 1500 years older.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 15, 2010, 11:36:51 AM
I put together a chart from the Myres data that shows the mix of the R-L11 (U106 & P312 & L11*) and it's lineage back to M343 (R1b). This doesn't get us all the way back to R1 but here is the chart and underlying table.
http://tiny.cc/9gahy

I call it a "brothers and cousins" chart but it is just technique similar to what Vince V has shown before. It looks like our 2nd cousins have a bigger share of the M343 family back in Asia.  Just from a cursory look, my initial thought was M343 is from Central Asia and M269 (R1b1b2) expanded out of SW Asia.

If the Myres data is anything close to representative, we really should be talking about M269 in Western Europe.... to be more accurate/granular, R-L11 (R1b1b2a1a) is R-M269's representative in Western Europe..
http://www.isogg.org/tree/ISOGG_HapgrpR.html

In the "brothers and cousins" chart, Central Asia represents what Myres calls the "Circum-Uralic Region".  Russia is in Northeast Europe on the Chart. I put Italy in SE Europe although my real inclination is to put N.Italy in NW or SW Europe and Central & S.Italy in SE Europe.

By the way, does "Circum" mean the Artic Circle or what are they talking about there?

I noticed one thing about the distribution in Myres' data and also in your charts that is puzzling.  M269* shows up in SE Europe at the highest frequency than others areas but also has some L23*.  Is this an isolated, early branch of R1b that did go west with the spread of agriculture or just a later historical movement out of SW Asia? Whatever the reason, L23* is highest (frequency and variance) in the Caucasus and Uralic populations, with very little M269*.  This is what makes me think L51+ R1b is not necessarily an early farming Hg, but came out of the Caucasus onto the steppe.

What little L51* there is, is found in north Russia, Romania, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, etc. which suggests an east to west rather than a SE to NW movement.  Yes, there is some in Germany, Slovenia, Croatia, Italy, France, Switzerland, etc., but the beginning of the trail is closer to the higher L23* in the east (Urals and Caucasus) and oriented north of the Balkans.  There is some in Crete, but that is probably an outlier from the locations above.  Also, in the east (south Russia, NW Cauc.-Balkars, Poland, Estonia, Slovakia) Myres found L11*.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Jean M on November 15, 2010, 01:31:39 PM
R1a was most likely present in Yamnaya, but Andronovo is not a descendant culture.   Andronovo has more in common with an eastern shift of Corded-ware (originally northern forest-dwellers) then to Middle Dnieper, and a few others ending at the southern Urals. This explains the R1a aDNA being found in Corded-ware, Andronovo, Scythians, and so on.  Yamnaya was western-oriented and about 1500 years older.

Andronovo is a  descendant culture of Yamnaya, but via intermediate stages, the key one being the Potapovka -Sintashta complex between the middle Volga and the Tobal (i.e both sides of the Urals.) Sintashta (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sintashta_culture) morphs into Andronovo and Potapovka into its sister-culture Srubna (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Srubna_culture).  

The Yamnaya Horizon ran right across the European steppe. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IE5500BP.png Various dates are given for it, but let's take Anthony's (3300-2500 BC) as his book is recent. This is the mother culture with all the Indo-European features - wheeled vehicles, copper-working, etc that were carried out in all directions, developing in various ways as they travelled.  

The Corded Ware Culture is distinctly different from Andronovo. It has neither chariots nor defended settlements.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 15, 2010, 01:53:34 PM
I noticed one thing about the distribution in Myres' data and also in your charts that is puzzling.  M269* shows up in SE Europe at the highest frequency than others areas but also has some L23*.  Is this an isolated, early branch of R1b that did go west with the spread of agriculture or just a later historical movement out of SW Asia? Whatever the reason, L23* is highest (frequency and variance) in the Caucasus and Uralic populations, with very little M269*.  This is what makes me think L51+ R1b is not necessarily an early farming Hg, but came out of the Caucasus onto the steppe.

What little L51* there is, is found in west Ukraine, Romania, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, etc. which suggests an east to west rather than a SE to NW movement.  Yes, there is some in Germany, Slovenia, Croatia, Italy, France, Switzerland, etc., but the beginning of the trail is closer to the higher L23* in the east (Urals and Caucasus) and oriented north of the Balkans.  There is some in Crete, but that is probably an outlier from the locations above.  Also, in the east (Poland, Estonia, Slovakia) Myres found L11*.
The chart below is L23* highest frequency locations, but of the total surveyed population not just R-M343. It definitely makes a different of whether you are looking at frequency as a % of the total population or as a % of just M343.
Quote from: Myres excerpt
L23 xL51   
Bagvalals (Northeast Caucasus) ____________ 67.9%
Tabasarans (Northeast Caucasus) ___________ 37.2%
Bashkirs South-east (Bashkortostan, Russia) 32.2%
Switzerland (Upper Rhone Valley) __________ 27.3%
Bashkirs South-west (Bashkortostan, Russia) 16.7%
Turkey (Cappadocia) _______________________ 14.6%
Kumyks (Northeast Caucasus) _______________ 14.5%
Lezgis (Northeast Caucasus) _______________ 12.9%
Komis (Perm Oblast, Russia) _______________ 11.5%
Bashkirs South (Bashkortostan, Russia) ____ 11.4%
Kosovo ____________________________________ 11.4%
Turkey (unknown) __________________________ 11.1%
Poland ____________________________________ 9.5%

Here are L11* highest frequency of the total population locations.
Quote from: Myres excerpt
L11 xU106 xP312   
England Central   _________________________ 12.0%
Denmark Island (east) _____________________ 10.0%
Switzerland South _________________________ 6.3%
Denmark East ______________________________ 5.9%
Poland North ______________________________ 5.9%
England Southwest _________________________ 4.2%
Switzerland Northeast _____________________ 3.1%
Switzerland (Upper Rhone Valley) __________ 3.0%
France South ______________________________ 2.6%

Here is just Central Asia (Circum-Uralic), but as a percentage of M343
Quote from: Myres excerpt

R-M343 xM269 _________ 27.8%
R-M269 xL23 __________ 3.4%
R-L23 xL51 ___________ 48.1%
R-L51 xL11 ___________ 0%
R-L11 xU106 xU152 ____ 0%
R-P312 (mostly U152) _ 19%
R-U106 _______________ 1.7%

I don't know, but perhaps you are right on L23.  This is just thinking out loud, but it seems like.....

M343 is from Central Asia

M269 was a southerly branch of M343 moving into the Black Sea/Caspian Sea area.

L23 had a growth spurt in or around the Caucasus and Near East

Just about the time L23 started expanding, some segment of P312 and L23* cousins busted out of the Caucasus for Central Asia

Almost simultaneously, a U106 dominated group moved quickly to the northwest into the plains of NE Europe towards Poland and the Baltic and

At the same time another P312 group moved up the Danube towards Switzerland.

Right now, I don't see how P312 could've taken a southerly Cardial Neolithic path through Mediterranean Europe.  There may have been some M269 xL11 folks on the Cardial path, but the bulk of West Europe, including Iberia, appear to be L11 and in SW Europe that is P312.
- P312 has high variance in Turkey (on a very small sample size) and in France.
- U152 and L21 are older than SRY2627 and M153 and they both seem to have a northerly orientation rather than Mediterranean.
- Even though SRY2627 is supposed to be "Iberian", early testing on L176.2 shows L176.2 directly upstream of SRY2627 but the brothers and cousins L176.2* and L165 are only showing up in Germany, the Isles and Scandinavia.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 15, 2010, 04:23:50 PM
R1a was most likely present in Yamnaya, but Andronovo is not a descendant culture.   Andronovo has more in common with an eastern shift of Corded-ware (originally northern forest-dwellers) then to Middle Dnieper, and a few others ending at the southern Urals. This explains the R1a aDNA being found in Corded-ware, Andronovo, Scythians, and so on.  Yamnaya was western-oriented and about 1500 years older.

Andronovo is a  descendant culture of Yamnaya, but via intermediate stages, the key one being the Potapovka -Sintashta complex between the middle Volga and the Tobal (i.e both sides of the Urals.) Sintashta (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sintashta_culture) morphs into Andronovo and Potapovka into its sister-culture Srubna (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Srubna_culture).  

The Yamnaya Horizon ran right across the European steppe. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IE5500BP.png Various dates are given for it, but let's take Anthony's (3300-2500 BC) as his book is recent. This is the mother culture with all the Indo-European features - wheeled vehicles, copper-working, etc that were carried out in all directions, developing in various ways as they travelled.  

The Corded Ware Culture is distinctly different from Andronovo. It has neither chariots nor defended settlements.

Ok, that's what I get for not rereading Anthony and instead using Wikipedia. 

On Corded-ware I was referring mainly to the middle Dnieper culture as an eastern extension of C-W and intermediary which I thought had links to those eastern groups.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Jean M on November 16, 2010, 11:06:26 AM
On Corded-ware I was referring mainly to the middle Dnieper culture as an eastern extension of C-W and intermediary which I thought had links to those eastern groups.

I think I know what you mean. It was a contact zone. According to Anthony (2007), p. 375-380 and fig. 15.5, the Middle Dnieper Culture (2800-2200 BC) was forged out of a complex mixture. Late Yamnaya people pushed up river from the steppe to blend with existing farmers of the former Late Tripolye culture. Globular Amphora pottery spread east from the Dniester into the mix, before retreating to the Dniester, to be replaced by Corded Ware groups from S Poland.

However the Middle Dnieper was distant from Andronovo. We can think of them as the two ends of a cultural/linguistic continuum, with Proto-Balto-Slavic developing at one end and Proto-Indo-Iranian at the other. I have added fig. 15.5 from Anthony 2007 to Peopling of Europe to make the relationships clearer:
http://www.buildinghistory.org/distantpast/images/SteppeculturesMBA.jpg


You are maybe thinking of Scythian infiltration into the forest-steppe at a much later date - the Iron Age.  


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 17, 2010, 01:41:26 AM
On Corded-ware I was referring mainly to the middle Dnieper culture as an eastern extension of C-W and intermediary which I thought had links to those eastern groups.

Here is what Cunliffe says in "Europe Between the Oceans: 9000 BC-AD 1000" - 2008
Quote from: Cunliffe
p.167. "This (Corded Ware/Single Grave Culture) somewhat cumbersome piece of archeological terminology refers to a broad cultural continuum recognizable across a vast area of northern Europe, stretching from the Alpine Foreland to the vicinity of Oslo and from the Rhine valley to the Ukraine in the region of Kiev, with its influence spreading much further east through Russia to the Ural Mountains.  The cultural continuum originates around 2900 BC and lasts, little changed for about 500 years....
Most persistent has been the view that the culture represents an intrusion by people migrating from the Pontic steppe region; some have argued that it was by this means that the Indo-European language was introduced into peninsular Europe."  
p. 170 "Compelling evidence for the westward movement of some steppe communities comes from burials.  In Pachidol, in northern Bulgaria, a pit-grave 5 m deep had been set beneath a massive barrow 7 m high and 55 m in diameter....  The burial, quite alien to the local burial tradition, closely resembles pit-graves from the steppe....  Dating evidence for the movement is imprecise, but the Plachidol burial dates to around 3000 BC."


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 17, 2010, 01:48:03 AM
On Corded-ware I was referring mainly to the middle Dnieper culture as an eastern extension of C-W and intermediary which I thought had links to those eastern groups.

I think I know what you mean. It was a contact zone. According to Anthony (2007), p. 375-380 and fig. 15.5, the Middle Dnieper Culture (2800-2200 BC) was forged out of a complex mixture. Late Yamnaya people pushed up river from the steppe to blend with existing farmers of the former Late Tripolye culture. Globular Amphora pottery spread east from the Dniester into the mix, before retreating to the Dniester, to be replaced by Corded Ware groups from S Poland.

However the Middle Dnieper was distant from Andronovo. We can think of them as the two ends of a cultural/linguistic continuum, with Proto-Balto-Slavic developing at one end and Proto-Indo-Iranian at the other. I have added fig. 15.5 from Anthony 2007 to Peopling of Europe to make the relationships clearer:
http://www.buildinghistory.org/distantpast/images/SteppeculturesMBA.jpg ...
When I read "The Horse the Wheel and Language: How Bronze-Age Riders from the Eurasian Steppes shaped the Modern World" - 2007 by David Anthony, I attempted to consolidate what he was saying about the early branching of the large IE language branches.  Even though I enjoyed his book, his writing was a bit scattered.  Here is my attempt to paraphase what he was saying using as many of his words as possible.

Quote from: Anthony paraphrased
"It is probably safe to assume that the separations of several western Indo-European branches (Italic, Celtic and Germanic) were associated somehow with these "... three "archeological cross-culture contact areas" between the Yamnaya and to the west from "about 3100 to 2600 BC," during the Early Bronze Age.

1) PRE-GERMANIC - "Close integration" with the steppe Usatovo culture (of the lower Danube) and the late Tripolye villages of the upper Dniester and Prut Valleys.  Clear military dominance of the Usatovo steppe peoples over the upland farmers...  He believes the Usatov culture was mix of the Yamnaya and Tripolye and believes the Pre-Germanic languages started with them.

2) PRE-ITALIC & PRE-CELTIC  "True folk migration" of Yamnaya horizon peoples in significant numbers into the lower Danube valley (Romania) and the Carpathian Basin (Hungary) and another branch south into Bulgaria. There was a "massive sustained flow of outsiders into a previously settled land". Some integration with the Corsofeni culture. The Yamnaya in "eastern Hungary" occupied by "larger population of immigrants"  "This regional group could have spawned both pre-Italic and pre-Celtic. Bell beaker sites of the Csepel type around Budapest, west of the Yamnaya settelment region are dated about 2800-2600 BC.  They could have been a bridge between Yamnaya on their east and Austria/Southern Germany to their west, through which Yamnaya dialects spreads from Hungary into Austria and Bavaria, where they later developed into Proto-Celtic. Pre-Italic could have developed  among the dialects that remained in Hungary, ultimately spreading into Italy through the Urnfield and Villanovan cultures."

3) LAST PRE-BALTIC/SLAVIC "Yamanaya expanded toward the border with the Corded Ware horizon on the Dniester in far northwestern Ukraine."

I do find it a bit amusing that the Pre-Germanic branch was the one he thought mixed with some non-Yamnaya people - the Tripolye culture.  Today it appears that people from German speaking areas have more of mix of Hg I in them versus the Celtic areas having less of it. Hg I is not homogeneous and Ken N says there are some younger clades. Perhaps one or two of those integrated with the R-M269 folks early on as Pre-Germanic peoples.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 17, 2010, 01:56:10 PM
Here are some simple variance calculations based on 9 str's (19, 390, 391, 392, 393, 389i-ii, 388, 439) for L23*-L51*.  Most of the haplotypes were from the Myres' data and some from the various FTdna projects. 

L23*
India/Pakistan - .337, n-6
South Caucasus - .332, n-26
North Caucasus -  .330, n-31
SW Asia (Jordan, Palestine, other Middle East) - .320, n-8
Turkey - .309, n-59
Europe ( I made various combinations of the regions below with what was available, but here are the main divisions to keep the samples of similiar size)
East Central (mostly Romania and Hungary, Slovenia) - .254, n-23
South Central (mostly Italy, Switzerland) - .232, n-32
North East (mostly Poland and Slovakia, Russia, Estonia, Czech Rep.) - .175, n-26
South East (mostly Greece, Bulgaria) - .150, n-17

L51*
East (Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Croatia) - .388, n-8
West (Italy, Germany, France, Switzerland) - .148, n-7

L11*
West and South Central (Italy, Switzerland, France) - .359, n-6
North Central (Denmark, Germany) - .349, n-8
North East (Poland, Slovakia, Estonia) - .158, n-8

Unfortunately, these are small haplotypes. Still there is an east to west decrease in variance with no measurable L51* and L11* in the Balkans.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 17, 2010, 04:31:44 PM
As mentioned above I combined those European regions into larger blocks of L23* to try and narrow down the path of R1b-L23* from the east.

East Central and South Central (Italy, Switzerland, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania) - .26

East Central and South East (Greece, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania) - .223

East Central and North East (Estonia, Russia, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania) - .219

This shifts the path south and more in-line with the Danube.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 17, 2010, 04:55:58 PM
As mentioned above I combined those European regions into larger blocks of L23* to try and narrow down the path of R1b-L23* from the east.  ...
Thanks for your work, MHammers.

I have a question related to comparing variance by clade that I haven't completely come to grips with in my mind....  I'm just saying I can be convinced either way.

The question:  Is it useful to compare paragroup (L23*, L11*, P312* or whatever) variance across geographies?

The alternative would be to compare variance for only the full clade, i.e. L23 All, L11 All, etc. by geography. I grapple with this because L23* variance doesn't necessarily tell us the age of L23 as it is really just represents all of the "non-identified" clades. L23* is not any more ancient that M222, it's just we don't have as deep of knowledge of the L23* folks' phylogeny.

An L23* group in country A may be a completely different group than an L23* group in country B. In fact, the country A L23* folks may be more closely related to the M222 subclade than to the country B L23* folks.



Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 17, 2010, 06:30:17 PM
You're welcome.  I prefer to use just the subclade like L23* to see if there are any subtle differences across geography.  Here's one more to represent an Adriatic/Mediterranean L23*, which is lower than the previous groups.  There seems to be a lack of L23-L11 in Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia, etc..

Italy, Slovenia, and Greece - .204

I see what you're saying, but I'm not really the person to answer that.  It seems that if you include all subclades under L23 or L11, it gives you an idea of overall R1b diversity or variance in an area.  I'm not sure how you would determine an age of something unless you look at each subclade individually because they could have arrived at different times from different directions.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 17, 2010, 07:37:02 PM
Your welcome.  I prefer to use just the subclade like L23* to see if there are any subtle differences across geography. ....
I see what you're saying, but I'm not really the person to answer that.  It seems that if you include all subclades under L23 or L11, it gives you an idea of overall R1b diversity or variance in an area.  I'm not sure how you would determine an age of something unless you look at each subclade individually because they could have arrived at different times from different directions.
What good does it do to determine an age for something that isn't a clade, i.e. R-L23* ?  All L23+ folks form a clade but L23* are partial branches on the L23+ tree, and the minority part at that.  Again, it still may be useful to look at L23* variance, but I just haven't figured out of if variance for a paragroup is useful or misleading or just non-relevant.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 17, 2010, 08:31:27 PM
I don't think you could get any granularity for an age estimation by combining subclades, snps, or whatever.  Each one emerge at x point time and in different locations.    I would think by observing the variance of each node individually across several locations and then look for the general pattern is a better approach for interpreting movement.  Of course, there will overlap of the groups, outliers, and back-migrations to consider, but a trend should emerge. 

Hopefully, someone more knowledgeable of statistics will explain.  I could be wrong, but I'm trying to see it logically.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 18, 2010, 09:52:43 AM
I don't think you could get any granularity for an age estimation by combining subclades, snps, or whatever.  Each one emerge at x point time and in different locations.    I would think by observing the variance of each node individually across several locations and then look for the general pattern is a better approach for interpreting movement.  Of course, there will overlap of the groups, outliers, and back-migrations to consider, but a trend should emerge. 
Hopefully, someone more knowledgeable of statistics will explain.  I could be wrong, but I'm trying to see it logically.
I agree with you that granularity is the right thing and that we want to track each subclade that we have enough data for.  Obviously there is a lot of data for P312, L21, U152 and M222 and perhaps SRY2627 and L226. However, I still don't get the logic on doing a paragroup, be it L21* or P312* or L23*. 

Sorry for the distracting questions. I too hope someone knowledgeable on statistics and phylogeny will comment.  Other than that, I'll drop this to get us back on track.

 


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 18, 2010, 10:26:42 AM
I agree with MHammers that granularity is important and so the more we understand about the subclades of R-M269 (R1b1b2) then we have a chance to fit the pieces together and "box in" possible origin/expansion locations.

It is reassuring to see Ken Nordtvedt acknowledge what we already know about P312, U106 and their most immediate upstream haplogroup, L11. In my opinion this has been logically apparent for years as it is just the logical conclusion of the relative lack of variance to the Super Western Atlantic Modal (all 67 markers.)
Quote from: Ken Nordtvedt
When most people take P312 and U106 haplotype collections and estimate tmrcas for the two they typically come out to be very similar and around 4000 years ago. But there is a third estimation which can and should be performed --- the node age for the MRCA ancestral to both the P312 and U106 populations. That age also comes out very close to the same 4000 years. This means there probably was not much time between the single man ancestral to both haplogroups and the individual MRCAs of the two haplogroups.

I think this makes it more difficult to sustain scenarios in which the migratory history and geographical details leading up to the two founding events and locations are excessively different from each other.

There are some constraints in place which probably favor some geographical closeness between these foundings..
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2010-11/1290042075

I am surprised he said 4000 ybp although he didn't come out formally take a position on it (although I know he has been looking at the data.)

His conclusion is a key. P312, U106 and L11 itself must not have originated (expanded significantly) too far from each other both in time and space.

Does anyone think the Myres data on P312 and U106 coalescence times is accurate enough at the country level to be reliable?  I'm not talking about the actual ages themselves as there is a lot of concern about mutation rates. I'm just talking about the relative ages between the countries.
Quote from: Myres excerpt
Table S2 U106 All
Estonia N=10 _____ 12.862
Poland N=9 _______ 10.467
Slovakia N=11 ____ 9.552
Switzerland N=19 _ 8.963
Ireland N=6 ______ 8.756
Italy N=10 _______ 8.333
England   N=26 ___ 7.037
Netherlands N=30 _ 7.005
Denmark   N=20 ___ 6.789
France N=6 _______ 6.703
Germany   N=6 ____ 8.480

Table S2 P312 All
Turkey N=5 _______ 13.043
Vaucluse N=20 ____ 11.270
Germany   N=62 ___ 10.245
France N=40 ______ 10.097
Slovenia N=7 _____ 9.317
Hungary   N=9 ____ 9.259
Poland N=6 _______ 9.058
England   N=43 ___ 8.962
Slovakia N=20 ____ 8.152
Ireland   N=73 ___ 8.152
Italy N=72 _______ 7.637
Romania   N=11 ___ 7.576
Netherlands N=14 _ 7.565
Denmark   N=16 ___ 7.382
Greece N=7 _______ 6.729
Sweden N=10 ______ 6.159
Switzerland N=48 _ 8.610


Myres didn't hit every country but U106 looks oldest along in NE Europe along the Polish and Baltic state countries.

As far as P312, as expected, France and Germany look old, but Turkey is quite high (but that is based only 5 ht's.)  If it is to be believed, it is not a back-migration of Celts to be Galatians.  

Unfortunately, apparently they thought there was only one L11* number that had a large enough count to give a coalescence time to give.
Quote
Table S2 L11*
Germany   N=6 ______ 9.481

MHammers had this for L11*'s greatest variance.
Quote from: MHammers

West and South Central (Italy, Switzerland, France) - .359, n-6

What's between the key points of the Baltic, Germany, Switzerland and Turkey?
... the Black Sea
... Caucasus on one side
... the Lower Danube on the other
... the Steppes up into the Northern European plains to the Baltic (and these plains are separated from the middle Danube by the Carpathian Mountains)

In my opinion L11's potential initial expansion area is limited by the above.... basically Anatolia/N.Iran up through the Eastern Northern European plains.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 18, 2010, 01:06:55 PM
Mike,

I was going to mention interclade variance to estimate the node age, but I see you have a quote from Ken N. about it.  I think this is what you were referring to yesterday.

The variance I was doing, of course, means nothing in terms of an age estimate, but simply shows where L23* is most likely to be older.  I think Ken's method puts an upper and lower boundary on the age of the nodeman.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 18, 2010, 01:45:06 PM
I was going to mention interclade variance to estimate the node age, but I see you have a quote from Ken N. about it.  I think this is what you were referring to yesterday.

The variance I was doing, of course, means nothing in terms of an age estimate, but simply shows where L23* is most likely to be older.  I think Ken's method puts an upper and lower boundary on the age of the nodeman.

Interclade methods separate and compares calculations between clades. This concept, that Ken N developed, has been recognized as reducing error vs. using intraclade variance based approaches.  I agree that intraclade variance results are still helpful, though.

Tim J has taken Ken N's rough interclade spreadsheet, enhanced and run through numbers for R-M269.  Ken N and others seem to support these dates. I'm not sure about Dienekes, but he does recognize that Ken's concept reduces error.

Here is the summary for R-M269's lineage.
Quote from: Janzen excerpt

M269: 6500-8500
L23: 6500-8000
L51: 5500-7000
L11: 5000-6500

U106: 4000-5500

P312: 4000-5500
 U152: 3500-5000
 L21: 3500-5500
 M167(SRY2627): 2600-3500
L11 is a key clade as it is where both U106 and P312 fall and it dominates Western Europe.  Using the Myres* data, L11 makes up 95% of all R-M343(R1b) in Western Europe.

Tim J's TMRCA estimate for L11 is essentially 3750 BC, give or take 1500 years. He is using Ken N's inter-clade techniques so I think this is as good as we can get.
EDIT: 11/19 - fixed inter/intra problem


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 18, 2010, 05:51:39 PM
I am just comparing the MHammers calculated relative variance with the relative positions of the direct Myres age numbers for L23*.
L23*
India/Pakistan - .337, n-6
South Caucasus - .332, n-26
North Caucasus -  .330, n-31
SW Asia (Jordan, Palestine, other Middle East) - .320, n-8
Turkey - .309, n-59
Europe ( I made various combinations of the regions below with what was available, but here are the main divisions to keep the samples of similiar size)[/b]
East Central (mostly Romania and Hungary, Slovenia) - .254, n-23
South Central (mostly Italy, Switzerland) - .232, n-32
North East (mostly Poland and Slovakia, Russia, Estonia, Czech Rep.) - .175, n-26
South East (mostly Greece, Bulgaria) - .150, n-17

Quote from: Myres Table S2 excerpt
L23* Coalescence Times
Pakistan N=5 ___ 14.493
Caucasus N=32 __ 12.217
Romania   N=12 ___ 11.199
Turkey N=58 ____ 11.057
Switzerland N=10 7.246

Greece N=15 ____ 6.763
Hungary   N=7 ____ 5.952
Slovakia N=10 __ 5.153
Bashkir   N=29 ___ 1.624

It is interesting that after Turkey, within the Myres data set, Switzerland is next..... right up the Danube.

Iran is in between Turkey and Pakistan.  Would love to have data from Iran, especially Northern Iran. Of course, we'd love more data from Georgia and the Southern Russia as well.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 18, 2010, 09:59:25 PM
Whether the movement is neolithic or Bronze age, I think we can agree that the Danube is important to the spread of R1b, and possibly Romania for some reason.  I don't see anything in the numbers to support any major Mediterranean or Cardial-ware route for L23+. 


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: TomGull on November 18, 2010, 10:50:41 PM
I was going to mention interclade variance to estimate the node age, but I see you have a quote from Ken N. about it.  I think this is what you were referring to yesterday.

The variance I was doing, of course, means nothing in terms of an age estimate, but simply shows where L23* is most likely to be older.  I think Ken's method puts an upper and lower boundary on the age of the nodeman.

Intraclade methods separate and compares calculations between clades. This concept, that Ken N developed, has been recognized as reducing error vs. using interclade variance based approaches.  I agree that interclade variance results are still helpful, though.

Tim J has taken Ken N's rough intraclade spreadsheet, enhanced and run through numbers for R-M269.  Ken N and others seem to support these dates. I'm not sure about Dienekes, but he does recognize that Ken's concept reduces error.

Here is the summary for R-M269's lineage.
Quote from: Janzen excerpt

M269: 6500-8500
L23: 6500-8000
L51: 5500-7000
L11: 5000-6500

U106: 4000-5500

P312: 4000-5500
 U152: 3500-5000
 L21: 3500-5500
 M167(SRY2627): 2600-3500
L11 is a key clade as it is where both U106 and P312 fall and it dominates Western Europe.  Using the Myres* data, L11 makes up 95% of all R-M343(R1b) in Western Europe.

Tim J's TMRCA estimate for L11 is essentially 3750 BC, give or take 1500 years. He is using Ken N's intra-clade techniques so I think this is as good as we can get.

I think the word usage here is backwards - Interclade (indeed championed as most meaningful by Ken) takes separate groups such as U152 and U106 samples and compares them against each other. Intraclade (a la Tim, typically) works with subsets within one sample (U152 people separated by some STR cluster, for example). I think the problem with the latter is that it is not known factually that the two populations have no overlap with each other, and this may increase the confidence intervals. But Ken and Tim have covered this difference in what is being measured at great length.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 19, 2010, 09:58:44 AM
I was going to mention interclade variance to estimate the node age, but I see you have a quote from Ken N. about it.  I think this is what you were referring to yesterday.

The variance I was doing, of course, means nothing in terms of an age estimate, but simply shows where L23* is most likely to be older.  I think Ken's method puts an upper and lower boundary on the age of the nodeman.

Interclade methods separate and compares calculations between clades. This concept, that Ken N developed, has been recognized as reducing error vs. using intraclade variance based approaches.  I agree that intraclade variance results are still helpful, though.

Tim J has taken Ken N's rough interclade spreadsheet, enhanced and run through numbers for R-M269.  Ken N and others seem to support these dates. I'm not sure about Dienekes, but he does recognize that Ken's concept reduces error.

Here is the summary for R-M269's lineage.
Quote from: Janzen excerpt

M269: 6500-8500
L23: 6500-8000
L51: 5500-7000
L11: 5000-6500

U106: 4000-5500

P312: 4000-5500
 U152: 3500-5000
 L21: 3500-5500
 M167(SRY2627): 2600-3500
L11 is a key clade as it is where both U106 and P312 fall and it dominates Western Europe.  Using the Myres* data, L11 makes up 95% of all R-M343(R1b) in Western Europe.

Tim J's TMRCA estimate for L11 is essentially 3750 BC, give or take 1500 years. He is using Ken N's inter-clade techniques so I think this is as good as we can get.
EDIT: 11/18 fixed inter/intra

I think the word usage here is backwards - Interclade (indeed championed as most meaningful by Ken) takes separate groups such as U152 and U106 samples and compares them against each other. Intraclade (a la Tim, typically) works with subsets within one sample (U152 people separated by some STR cluster, for example). I think the problem with the latter is that it is not known factually that the two populations have no overlap with each other, and this may increase the confidence intervals. But Ken and Tim have covered this difference in what is being measured at great length.
I apologize to all. Tom, you're right - I had "inter" and "intra" flip flopped. I've always had a problem with these two so I guess I can't blame it on age. I edited to fix this (so the quote above is the corrected version.)

Ken N did confirm the young ages that Tim showed (above) for U106, P312 and R-L11 overall. Ken actually used the low end of the ranges, but I don't think he was making any formal statements. Reply 29 below:
Quote from: Nordtvedt
... the node age for the MRCA ancestral to both the P312 and U106 populations. That age also comes out very close to the same 4000 years.

It's probably also worth mentioning that Dr. Hammer, FTDNA's Chief Scientist and a co-author of the 2008 Karafet study, has stated that R-M269's TMRCA is  4000-8000 ybp which fits with Tim J's 6500-8500 ybp.
www.familytreedna.com/pdf/Karafet-et-all-GR508.pdf
The reason is I bring that up is the Karefet study developed another method, counting SNPs, in their approach so this just another methodology confirming Tim's general time-line. I actually think the younger side of Tim's time-line is probably correct, based on Hammer and Nordtvedt.... and also Anatole K too. Dr. Klyosov also comes up with ages on the younger side of Janzen's also. Klyosov has U106 at 4175 ybp and P312 at 3950 ybp.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: alan trowel hands. on November 19, 2010, 01:20:06 PM
I would still feel any interclade date for the node between S116 and U106 that is less than 4500 years old is pretty well impossible to match in the archaeological record.  After the beaker period, there was simply never again any common denominator between all the L11/P310 areas.  If its post-beaker then some ultra complex multi-period, multi-cultural spread would have to have taken place,     


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 19, 2010, 01:45:13 PM
I would still feel any interclade date for the node between S116 and U106 that is less than 4500 years old is pretty well impossible to match in the archaeological record.  After the beaker period, there was simply never again any common denominator between all the L11/P310 areas.  If its post-beaker then some ultra complex multi-period, multi-cultural spread would have to have taken place,    
I admit I am speculating, but perhaps the archaeology can't reflect all changes in people, particularly slow changes in mixed environments.

We know the mt DNA and Y DNA distribution patterns don't align well (or hardly at all) so the question on R-L11 is not how did total cultures change but how did paternal lineages spread?

I know the Eupedia web site is not afraid to speculate and has some inaccuracies. However, that doesn't mean it is wrong all of the time.  Forget Eupedia's data, what do you think of this logic?
Quote from: Eupedia
Western Europeans do look quite different in Ireland, Holland, Aquitaine or Portugal, despite being all regions where R1b is dominant. Autosomal DNA studies have confirmed that the Western European population is far from homogeneous. A lot of maternal lineages (mtDNA) also appear to be of Paleolithic origin (e.g. H1, H3, U5 or V) based on ancient DNA tests. What a lot of people forget is that there is also no need of a large-scale exodus for patrilineal lineages to be replaced fairly quickly. Here is why... Polygamy ... Status & Power ... Gender imbalance...  Warfare (and more.).....
Celtic culture lasted for over 1000 years in Continental Europe before the Roman conquest putting an end to the priviledges of the chieftains and nobility. This is more than enough time for R1b lineages to reach 50 to 80% of the population.
http://www.eupedia.com/europe/origins_haplogroups_europe.shtml#R1b-conquest

If the Celtic cultures really started with the Beaker folks we have about 2000 years of Celtic or Celtic/Italic hegemony in Western Europe.  At the same time a similar hegemony, but slower and less comprehensive, might have been occurring in pre-Germanic cultures to the north.

We know of at least one Celtic oriented subclade, M222, that has grown to be a fairly large even though it is young.... and that's in the last 1700 years, a time of large populations.  M222 shows us an example of a paternal lineage that could have cultural values and technology advantages over prior European inhabitants... perhaps this is just a late representation of P312 and U106 that demonstrates how R-L11 could be young but so big.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Maliclavelli on November 19, 2010, 02:01:12 PM
Mike writes: "we have about 2000 years of Celtic or Celtic/Italic hegemony in Western Europe".

If this had been written  some years ago probably many misunderstandings wouldn't have happened.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 19, 2010, 06:16:27 PM
I am just keeping the TMRCA's in one place. They are lining up pretty well, I think.
Quote from: Janzen
M269: 6500-8500
L23: 6500-8000
L51: 5500-7000
L11: 5000-6500

U106: 4000-5500

P312: 4000-5500
 U152: 3500-5000
 L21: 3500-5500
 M167(SRY2627): 2600-3500

L11 is a key clade as it is where both U106 and P312 fall and it dominates Western Europe.  Using the Myres* data, L11 makes up 95% of all R-M343(R1b) in Western Europe.[/quote]

Ken N did confirm the young ages that Tim showed...
Quote from: Nordtvedt
When most people take P312 and U106 haplotype collections and estimate tmrcas for the two they typically come out to be very similar and around 4000 years ago. But there is a third estimation which can and should be performed --- the node age for the MRCA ancestral to both the P312 and U106 populations. That age also comes out very close to the same 4000 years. This means there probably was not much time between the single man ancestral to both haplogroups and the individual MRCAs of the two haplogroups.
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2010-11/1290042075

It's probably also worth mentioning that Dr. Hammer, FTDNA's Chief Scientist and a co-author of the 2008 Karafet study, has stated that R-M269's TMRCA is  4000-8000 ybp which fits with Tim J's 6500-8500 ybp.
www.familytreedna.com/pdf/Karafet-et-all-GR508.pdf
The reason is I bring that up is the Karefet study developed another method, counting SNPs, in their approach so this just another methodology confirming Tim's general time-line.

... and also Anatole K too. Dr. Klyosov also comes up with ages on the younger side of Janzen's also. Anatokle K has
Quote from: Klyosov summary
U106 at 4175 ybp
P312 at 3950 ybp.

Vince V has also posted his latest TMRCA's for R-M269
Quote from: Vizachero
The TRMCA of R-M269 is about 6,000 years ago.
The TMRCA of R-M73 is about 7,000 years ago.
The TMRCA of R-P297 is about 12,000 years ago.
The TMRCA of R-M415 is about 16,000 years ago."
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2010-11/1290183706
Prior to this he has also recently said:
Quote from: Vizachero
The MRCA of R-L23 I estimate to be about 5700 years ago (+/- 2.1 ky) and the MRCA of R-L11 I estimate to be about 5000 years ago (+/- 1.8 kya)

M415 and P25 are at the same position on the Y DNA tree.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: alan trowel hands. on November 19, 2010, 06:20:49 PM
Mike
I understand the example of the huge expansion of Irish early historic period clades and clusters but I do think one thing should not be lost site of.  We know from the phylogeny that we are not just dealing with the expansion of male lineages.  We are dealing with a fairly dramatic geographical spreading of these lineages.  Europe was not like some kind of free trade zone and movement in this pre-market economy period was certainly not then driven by the labour market.  

As well as the issue of unexplained movement across a wide area divided into many hostile tribes, we have the issue of how on earth the R1b folks in so many areas came to proliferate.  From what I understand from the Irish early historic period evidence, male lineage expansion was related to power.  I certainly find it hard for example to see it as some sort of below-the-radar low status trickle that then somehow came to dominate everywhere.  I dont think the way society was set up at that time would allow that combination of mobility and lineage expansion to happen in that way.  I think there must have been some sort of advantage that either meant R1b lineages could spread at will or that the locals were (initially) happy for R1b lineages to spread into their lands because they were welcome due to something they brought with them (the trojan horse angle).


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Mike Walsh on November 19, 2010, 07:00:05 PM
Mike
I understand the example of the huge expansion of Irish early historic period clades and clusters but I do think one thing should not be lost site of.  We know from the phylogeny that we are not just dealing with the expansion of male lineages.  We are dealing with a fairly dramatic geographical spreading of these lineages.  Europe was not like some kind of free trade zone and movement in this pre-market economy period was certainly not then driven by the labour market.  

As well as the issue of unexplained movement across a wide area divided into many hostile tribes, we have the issue of how on earth the R1b folks in so many areas came to proliferate.  From what I understand from the Irish early historic period evidence, male lineage expansion was related to power.  I certainly find it hard for example to see it as some sort of below-the-radar low status trickle that then somehow came to dominate everywhere.  I dont think the way society was set up at that time would allow that combination of mobility and lineage expansion to happen in that way.  I think there must have been some sort of advantage that either meant R1b lineages could spread at will or that the locals were (initially) happy for R1b lineages to spread into their lands because they were welcome due to something they brought with them (the trojan horse angle).
It's ironic that you mention the Trojan horse concept. I've been reading about the Mycenaean Greeks and the Minoans. At first, Mycenaens integrated peaceably, right?  Even though the Minoans were probably more advanced, the Mycenaeans were more militaristic and eventually they took over. Seems like a similar story, possibly, across Europe. Indo-European (Beaker?) chieftains moved in with their metallurgy, horse riding, cattle herding and militaristic client/host culture.

The IE chieftains were experts at the client/host alliance concept. They no doubt worked it to their advantage but eventually their own worst enemy (from a national standpoint) was themselves.

Vortigern, King of the Brits, invited in the Saxons. We know what Bede thought of that.

Irish King MacMorrough invited in the Normans.

Didn't William the Conqueror at least claim a deal with Harold to rally support, probably from Harold haters?

The Romans allied with and trained Goths. Eventually a Roman soldier, Aleric the Goth King, sacked Rome. That's a little different but the use of alliances can work and then back-fire.

Well, all that's a bit off track, but IE chieftains did have a good 2000 years to infiltrate, institute hegemony and some cases destroy the competition. Given the different morality of the times, the chieftains' lineages may have had an disproportional effect on the population.  Of course, some milk drinking or disease resistant genes they along with them from the east may have been part of the advantage, at least initially, before those genes mixed into the general population.

I don't know my Indo-European society stuff, but wasn't the patri-lineal nature such that they controlled the land?  If so, wouldn't you want your daughters marrying into prosperity? This is a nice way to say it, but it certainly would've been nice to have a military man as a son-in-law.  Europe is big but 2000 years is a long time for the spread to take place and grow.  

Isn't the King of Stonehenge in SW England a native of the Alps? ... 4000 ybp. How large could his clade be by now? His lineage had at 2000 years before religious conventions changed and marital fidelity became a consideration.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Wayne Kauffman on November 20, 2010, 05:48:28 PM
You're welcome.  I prefer to use just the subclade like L23* to see if there are any subtle differences across geography.  Here's one more to represent an Adriatic/Mediterranean L23*, which is lower than the previous groups.  There seems to be a lack of L23-L11 in Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia, etc..

Italy, Slovenia, and Greece - .204

Probably not worth considering using current L23* in the manner that you are talking about.  I believe there is sufficient evidence from 23andMe to know that L277 will define a new major haplogroup under L23.  How much of the L23* area that L277 carves out is what we are interested in figuring out.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: alan trowel hands. on November 20, 2010, 07:05:28 PM
Mike
 I suppose my basic point is no matter how small in the begining, people or clans who proliferated had to have had something special about them to do so, I would guess military power or some sort of specialist role.  It also was a west-Europe wide phenomenon wherebye the same L11 lineages came to be huge everywhere.  So, whatever allowed this lineage in clearly was repeated many times in many localities with the same L11 lineages proliferating for some reason.  So the question is

1. How did the L11 lineages manage to infiltrate in almost every locality from the Daube to the most far flung rock in the Outer Hebrides.

2. How did it come to expand so successfully everywhere.

Obviously one view is simple i.e. that is was linked with the unique demographic window that was the wave of the spread of farming.   If that is not the correct model, the next stop is the beaker period.  Here we do have a potential material reflection of the inflltration of society by new groups.  Certainly infiltrate may be the best term. The Stonehenge area before during and after the beaker phase show enough background continuity that it is easiest to imagine beaker elements were welcomed into the area by the Neolithic native powers, presumably because they had metalworking knowledge and a useful network of trade Europe wide.   There are many examples of less advanced groups or elements taking over the reigns of power of a more advanced society without destroying it.  The beaker people perhaps represented a new outward looking individualistic society where materialistic status symbols and prestige goods and wide contacts dominated.  This may have been in fairly sharp contrast to the relatively inward looking indigenous Neolithic societies which had a huge emphasis on ritual (seemingly more theocratic) and where (although not absent), prestige goods and contact networks were less developed and more geographically restricted (mainly contact within and between the isles). This may have been a social change that swept Europe and the elements that represented the new way came to dominate while the old theocratic leadership may have withered away.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 20, 2010, 08:16:36 PM
Probably not worth considering using current L23* in the manner that you are talking about.  I believe there is sufficient evidence from 23andMe to know that L277 will define a new major haplogroup under L23.  How much of the L23* area that L277 carves out is what we are interested in figuring out.

How many of these 23andMe L277's are also L51+?  The two in the Ht 35 project are L51-.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Maliclavelli on November 21, 2010, 02:10:26 AM
How many of these 23andMe L277's are also L51+?  The two in the Ht 35 project are L51-.

Of course all R-L277+ are L51-.


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: MHammers on November 21, 2010, 05:30:22 AM
So, L277 is parallel to L51?  


Title: Re: Asian deep ancestral homeland for R1b1b2 folks - where is it?
Post by: Wayne Kauffman on November 21, 2010, 09:19:33 AM
So, L277 is parallel to L51?  

That is the current hypothesis until another defining SNP is identified . L277 is present in Italian, Swiss, India, Turkey, and a Jewish Cohane cluster samples.