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Title: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 15, 2010, 09:30:21 PM
I know many feel the various FTDNA projects are worthless for sources of data. However I disagree. When sufficient data has been recorded, I feel one may begin to draw some inferences, though one must always proceed with caution.

I have been looking at the P312* and L21 projects at FTDNA. Both P312 and L21 were discovered at nearly the same time, so we don't have the issue where testing for one has been going on for several more years than for the other. Also the well known British Isles bias should apply equally well to both projects.

The P312* project has 209 members and the L21 (excluding L21 subclades) has 458.

There are a number of interesting comparisons. The first is that only 40% of P312* hail from the British Isles- 60% are of continental origin. Compare this to L21 (Xsubclades), 75% of which are from the British Isles and only 25% from the continent. If the L21 subclades, which are almost exclusively of British Isles origin, were added in, I expect the difference would be even more striking.

As time allows and assuming anyone is actually interested, I will add a few more observations at a later time


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: alan trowel hands. on April 16, 2010, 05:53:55 AM
There is a strange tendency for S116* to be poorly represented (on project maps) where L21 is high and vice versa.  In Scandinavia there is a distinct divsion between high L21 Norway and high S116* Sweden.  In France the S116* comes to a halt in an almost boundary-like line that cordons off the L21-rich NW corner of France.  In Iberia S116* and its downstream subclades is high.  L21 is very low and what there is is largely on the NE periphery of the penisula.  S116* seems well represented in Italy where L21 is very low.  In Ireland L21 is very high whle S116* is very low.  It seems to me that the only areas where L21 and S116* (and indeed U152 and U106) coexist in a real mix is the Rhineland and adjacent areas. 

To my eye S116* behaves more like U106 than L21 in NW Europe. Again, overall L21 does have a 'first man in' look with real strength in the NW Atlantic peripheries in the isles, France and Scandinavia while S116* looks more eastern in those areas. Despite the L21 SNP being downstream of S116, S116* superficially looks like it overlies L21 in NW Europe. 

My feeling is:

1. L21 was the first R1b1b2 clade to arrive in the north-west
2. In NW Europe S116* overlaid and diluted L21 from the east with a lessening effect as you head west
3. S116* did not arrive by the Atlantic route to the isles.  I think it is very unlikely that S116* in the isles arrived there from the south/Iberia/by an Atlantic route given that the proportion of S116* is very low in Ireland among those with indigenous surnames than in the east.  I think it arrived in the isles by a more northerly route from the east.  As for timing, I am much less sure of that.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: alan trowel hands. on April 16, 2010, 06:00:46 AM
I know many feel the various FTDNA projects are worthless for sources of data. However I disagree. When sufficient data has been recorded, I feel one may begin to draw some inferences, though one must always proceed with caution.

I have been looking at the P312* and L21 projects at FTDNA. Both P312 and L21 were discovered at nearly the same time, so we don't have the issue where testing for one has been going on for several more years than for the other. Also the well known British Isles bias should apply equally well to both projects.

The P312* project has 209 members and the L21 (excluding L21 subclades) has 458.

There are a number of interesting comparisons. The first is that only 40% of P312* hail from the British Isles- 60% are of continental origin. Compare this to L21 (Xsubclades), 75% of which are from the British Isles and only 25% from the continent. If the L21 subclades, which are almost exclusively of British Isles origin, were added in, I expect the difference would be even more striking.

As time allows and assuming anyone is actually interested, I will add a few more observations at a later time

Again, i think this is evidence that L21 was the first R1b1b2 clade to reach the isles (and perhaps the NW of Europe in general) and that S116* was a more limited overlay from the east whose effect was much diluted the further west one went.
 


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 16, 2010, 07:48:41 AM
Goldenhind's observations are basically correct, but I would add a couple of observations. Not all R-P312* guys join the R-P312 and Subclades Project. That may be because they feel cladeless; I don't know, but it is a fact. I bump into green R1b1b2a1b entries in other projects all the time whose owners are not members of the R-P312 and Subclades Project. Of course, it's hard to tell how many of those are fully tested, because L21 was not included in FTDNA's Deep Clade-R until late January of 2009, nearly a year after testing for P312 began. There are still some guys out there showing the green R1b1b2a1b who have never been tested for L21.

It is tough to say much about R-P312* because it is a paragroup, not a subclade. Much of its continental component is Iberian, but it ranges up into southern Scandinavia and as far east as Siberia (thus far there is one outlier near Novosibirsk). Another good-sized fraction of R-P312* is composed of the R1b North-South Cluster, and I suspect that is actually a subclade of P312, with an as-yet-undiscovered SNP of its own.

As for L21 in the British Isles, well, it is pretty obvious L21 did pretty well there. I suspect it is the single most frequent R1b1b2 subclade in the British Isles. But there is a very heavy British Isles bias in the databases. Perhaps later today when I get time I will do some bean counting, but I suspect men of British Isles descent are at least 50-60% or more of FTDNA's Ancestral Origins database.

Another thing to keep in mind when comparing R-L21 and R-P312* is that R-L21 appears to be more frequent than R-P312* in general. British Isles L21 may account for 75% of the entries in the R-L21 Plus Project in a very Isles-skewed market, but there is about as much continental L21 that we know about as there is continental P312* that we know about.

P312 and L21 were not discovered simultaneously. P312 was discovered in March of 2008, and testing began that same month. P312 was added to FTDNA's Deep Clade-R within a couple of months of its discovery. L21 was discovered in October of 2008 and was added to the Deep Clade-R in late January of 2009. That may not be the same kind of huge lead that U152 and U106 have enjoyed, but it is enough to have made a difference, since results take anywhere from 1-3 months on average.



Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: Mike Walsh on April 16, 2010, 09:05:01 AM
.. In Scandinavia there is a distinct divsion between high L21 Norway and high S116* Sweden.  ...
Do you have a more distinct breakdown than by country?   Looking at old cultural spreads, it is obvious they did not follow modern political boundaries.

The Atlantic Coast of Norway had a larger Bronze Age influence than further inland on the Scandinavian Peninnsula.  The areas along the straits of the Kattegat and Skagerrak cross Norway and Sweden and probably have a high population but they might be quite difference than towards the Atlantic or to the east and the Baltic and the Gulf of Bothia.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: Mike Walsh on April 16, 2010, 09:41:32 AM
... It is tough to say much about R-P312* because it is a paragroup, not a subclade. Much of its continental component is Iberian, but it ranges up into southern Scandinavia and as far east as Siberia (thus far there is one outlier near Novosibirsk). Another good-sized fraction of R-P312* is composed of the R1b North-South Cluster, and I suspect that is actually a subclade of P312, with an as-yet-undiscovered SNP of its own.
...
This is very true.  We may find out future that R-P312* is really R-P312-ContinentalCentral A, B and C;  R-P312-Iberian A, B and C (to go along with M153 and M167/SRY2627); R-P312-Baltic A & B;  R-P312*-NorthSouthContinental; etc., etc.

Other than the North-South Cluster, are there are significant apparent clusters?


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 16, 2010, 07:30:25 PM
Secondly I should have noted I only included those in both projects who listed a geographic origin for their MDKA. I did not include anyone in the colonial sections.

The difference between P312* and L21 is even more striking when one looks at the place of origin within the British Isles.

P312*
England   58%
Scotland  15%
Wales      1%
Ireland     15%
I was unable to determine the exact place of origin  in the Isles for the remaining 11%

L21
England    26%
Scotland   19%
Wales         6%
Ireland      49%

I have long maintained, as Rich pointed out, that P312* is a paragroup rather than a subclade, and as such is very likely hiding as yet undiscovered subclades with very different histories and distributions.
However I still think the differences between the two groups are pretty interesting. Until I started analyzing them, I didn't realize just how startling they were.

Lastly, I am sorry if the dash in my topic title makes it looks like I am talking about L21-. I'm not. I included all those who were listed as L21 in the project, but none of those who are under the L21 subclades section.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 16, 2010, 07:43:41 PM
. . .
Other than the North-South Cluster, are there are significant apparent clusters?

Not that I know about.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 16, 2010, 08:20:36 PM
A couple of more comments about the continental distribution of R-P312* versus that of R-L21.

R-P312* has a more southerly center of gravity than R-L21 does. Of the 125 R-P312* continentals listed in the R-P312 and Subclades Project, 27 of them are from the Iberian Peninsula (about 22%), and 9 more are from elsewhere in Southern Europe, for a total of 36 southern Europeans or about 29% of the total continental R-P312*.

If one subtracts that southern European figure (36) from the total number of continental R-P312* (125), 89 continentals remain. (And I did not count as Southern European those R-P312* from southern France.) Here are those figures.

Total Continental R-P312* = 125
Iberian R-P312* = 27
Total Southern European R-P312* = 36

125-36 = 89 (non-Southern European Continental R-P312*)


L21, on the other hand, is relatively rare in Southern Europe. There are just 7 Iberian R-L21 thus far, and 10 southern European R-L21 total. If one subtracts that southern European figure (10) from the total number of continental R-L21 (116), 106 continentals remain. Here are those figures.

Total Continental R-L21 = 116
Iberian R-L21 = 7
Total Southern European R-L21 = 10

116-10 = 106 (non-Southern European Continental R-L21)


(I did not include those on my R-L21 European Continent Map who are not part of the FTDNA R-L21 Plus Project; I just used figures from the project.)

Now, if one considers the more northerly orientation of R-L21, then it should not be all that surprising that it is so prevalent in the British Isles. After all, perhaps we make a serious mistake in divorcing the British Isles from the rest of Northern Europe, as we sometimes tend to do.

I am not trying to reduce the value of southern European and Iberian results. On the contrary, I seek them out, and when I find them, I do all I can to recruit them for both projects. I was just pointing out the difference in continental distribution between R-P312* and R-L21, which is part of the topic of this thread.

Here is another thing regarding the percentage of Irish in the British Isles total for L21. It is pretty well known, I think, that participation in genetic genealogy by the North American Irish diaspora is phenomenal. There is nothing to compare with it. That is partly why the R-M222 Project is so huge, even though most will acknowledge that, in the grand scheme of things, R-M222 cannot possibly be that big a proportion of all R1b1b2. Similarly, we have fantastic amounts of Irish participation, which is a good thing, but it has led more than one person to the error of thinking everywhere one finds L21, it can traced back to Ireland (I realize Goldenhind doesn't think that).

Personally, while I am pretty sure Ireland is overwhelmingly L21+, I suspect England will eventually produce a far greater overall proportion of the total British L21 than will Ireland.



Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 16, 2010, 08:48:34 PM

This is very true.  We may find out future that R-P312* is really R-P312-ContinentalCentral A, B and C;  R-P312-Iberian A, B and C (to go along with M153 and M167/SRY2627); R-P312-Baltic A & B;  R-P312*-NorthSouthContinental; etc., etc.

Other than the North-South Cluster, are there are significant apparent clusters?
[/quote]

I believe your first point is generally correct, though the geographical division may not be that neat.

Secondly, there are in fact two other Nordtvedt clusters, at least one of which is of interest.

His R1b-Nor[se] is a very tight and easily identifiable cluster, which Nordtvedt says is found throughout Scandinavia. To date only three members of the cluster have had deep clade testing, and all three are P312*. I do not believe this is a coincidence. In fact the distinguishing SNP (L238) may already have been found in one of them, but I can't get anyone at FTDNA interested in pursuing it. They seem to be preoccupied with their new Family Finder program.

The second cluster is his R1b-Ub[iquitous] cluster, which he says is found throughout western Europe (hence its name), Iberia to Britain, Germany, Scandinavia etc. It remains a mystery, as there are reasonable matches to the cluster in some different subclades. I tend to believe it does exist, but probably is much narrower than Nordtvedt originally thought.

 


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 16, 2010, 09:06:10 PM
What are the characteristic marker values of R1b-Norse?


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 16, 2010, 09:26:16 PM
What are the characteristic marker values of R1b-Norse?

R1b-Nor distinguishing markers (with modals in brackets) according to Nordtvedt
385= 11,13 (11,14)
439= 11      (12)
441= 14      (13)
446= 15      (13)
When investigating this, I found that all members of the cluster additionally have the following, not noted by Nordtvedt, but reinforcing the identification of the cluster:
576=  19/20 (18)
534=   17     (15)

Note 441 is only ordinarily tested by SMGF, where I believe Ken first identified it, but can be specially ordered from FTDNA.

I should have added that every other member of the cluster I clould identify with 67 markers but who had not been deep clade tested had 12 at 492, making U106 highly unlikely.

If you want to see a perfect member of the cluster (a 100% match), look at project member Eriksson of Sweden, tested P312*, Ysearch 29TRV.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 17, 2010, 02:06:32 PM




Again, i think this is evidence that L21 was the first R1b1b2 clade to reach the isles (and perhaps the NW of Europe in general) and that S116* was a more limited overlay from the east whose effect was much diluted the further west one went.
 

Allow me to suggest a different scenario, without separate migrations by different R1b subclades. I think it's likely that the initial waves of R1b to reach Britain were of mixed subclades, with the majority being L21, a smaller portion of at least some type of P312* and possibly a few U106 and U152 as well.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 17, 2010, 02:23:33 PM
I think the relative scarcity of R-P312* in the British Isles, as well as its more southeasterly distribution there, is another nail in the coffin of the idea that L21 arose in the British Isles.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 17, 2010, 08:32:49 PM
I think the relative scarcity of R-P312* in the British Isles, as well as its more southeasterly distribution there, is another nail in the coffin of the idea that L21 arose in the British Isles.
I agree with your point about the relative scarcity of P312* as another piece of evidence against  L21 arising in Britain.

However I think the best way to characterize the distribution of P312* there is just more easterly, rather than southeasterly. It seems to be reasonably common in the northeast as well, including the eastern half of Scotland. The area where it appears to me to be the scarcest is the southwest of England and Wales (with the exception of the three in Cornwall).


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 17, 2010, 09:02:14 PM

I agree with your point about the relative scarcity of P312* as another piece of evidence against  L21 arising in Britain.

However I think the best way to characterize the distribution of P312* there is just more easterly, rather than southeasterly. It seems to be reasonably common in the northeast as well, including the eastern half of Scotland. The area where it appears to me to be the scarcest is the southwest of England and Wales (with the exception of the three in Cornwall).


I was thinking of R-P312* relative to R-L21. There are just 13 R-P312* in Scotland on my R-P312* Map. There are 14 R-P312* in Ireland, so Ireland actually has one more R-P312* than Scotland does. Of course, many of the R-P312* in Ireland have English-looking surnames.

Looking at the R-P312* Map again, however, it does seem that R-P312* is scattered all over England. There are more in the southeast than elsewhere, but the distribution in England is not as lopsided as I thought I remembered.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: alan trowel hands. on April 18, 2010, 04:10:32 AM




Again, i think this is evidence that L21 was the first R1b1b2 clade to reach the isles (and perhaps the NW of Europe in general) and that S116* was a more limited overlay from the east whose effect was much diluted the further west one went.
 

Allow me to suggest a different scenario, without separate migrations by different R1b subclades. I think it's likely that the initial waves of R1b to reach Britain were of mixed subclades, with the majority being L21, a smaller portion of at least some type of P312* and possibly a few U106 and U152 as well.


A variation on that is my alternative that the continent closest to the isles from NW France to Holland had something similar to what it does now from the first arrival of R1b1b2.  The British Isles would then have been settled from a broad front from NW France to Holland with the west of the isles being more  settled from the western part of that front (i.e. NW France) and the east from the eastern part of that front (NE France, Belgium, Holland).  That would quite nicely expain the difference in R1b1b2 clade frequency in the British Isles.  There is no doubt there is a tendency for the different parts of the British Isles to have its nearest continental match in terms of clade proportion at the nearest continental landfall.  For example south and east England looks most like the Low Countries with its high U106 presence while very high L21 Ireland and Atlantic Britain looks more like the nearest landfall along the western seaways-NW France. I would hardly be surprising if this is the case.

The alternative is that L21 was dominant (either totally or by a large majority from the start and that the reduction of the proportion of L21/increase in S116*, U152 and U106 is a result of later movements that did not reach the west.  There are a number of scenarios for that model.  Obviously there is the whole Anglo-Saxon and Viking input.  However, there is also the Belgic input into SE England (all the stuff you hear about Belgae in Ireland from amateurs on the web  is dubious and not supported by modern scholars).  On top of that there is the fact that the east and south of Britain has far more evidence for a beaker period migration from the Low Countries area.  If you believe R1b1b2 is older, then its also worth noting that there was probably also some differences in the departure points in the early Neolithic, probably from a similar broad NW French to Low Countries front suggested for the later beaker phase.   However, the latter is still the subject of much debate with Alison Sheridan being the archaeologist who has had the best stab at working this out.  So, one way or another there are plenty of scenarios for the differences in clade proportions in the isles to have commenced long before the Germanic invasions.   

However, the alternative remains that the latter did make a big impact and changed the clade balance significantly in areas affected by them.  There are too many uncertain issues to make a call in this. One of the best parallels for the British Isles would be Belgium where half the country experienced a change to Germanic due to migration of Franks (Flemish) and Frisians across the Rhine from Holland while the other half kept the pre-Germanic language and presumably much more of the pre-Germanic Gallo-Roman (Romanised Gaulish) population (with some blurring at the edges). Unfortunately as yet the data for Walloon Belgium is not available and in addition L21 has not yet been used in the studies.   


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 18, 2010, 09:21:04 AM
I did a little recruiting from Ysearch last night, trying to bring as many R-P312* into the R-P312 and Subclades Project who are not yet in it as possible. The response has been pretty good.

I believe 12 have joined already. Two of them turned out to be U152+ (their Ysearch entries just said R1b1b2a1b), and two of them are untested for L21 (one of Portuguese ancestry, the other, German). The remaining eight are R-P312*.

I just went into Ysearch and used "Search by Haplogroup", entering R1b1b2a1b and Western Europe, Scandinavia, and Eastern Europe, in succession. I emailed everyone in all of those categories who was not already a member of the project.

Needless to say, it took awhile.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: OConnor on April 18, 2010, 10:20:53 AM
I think the relative scarcity of R-P312* in the British Isles, as well as its more southeasterly distribution there, is another nail in the coffin of the idea that L21 arose in the British Isles.

Do you think there is any chance the main body of L21 entered the Isles from scandinavia ? Before L21 made it to northern France?


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: alan trowel hands. on April 18, 2010, 11:25:51 AM
I think the relative scarcity of R-P312* in the British Isles, as well as its more southeasterly distribution there, is another nail in the coffin of the idea that L21 arose in the British Isles.

Do you think there is any chance the main body of L21 entered the Isles from scandinavia ? Before L21 made it to northern France?


no. Archaeology identifies no migration from Norway to Britain prior to the Viking Age. 


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 18, 2010, 02:13:41 PM
I think the relative scarcity of R-P312* in the British Isles, as well as its more southeasterly distribution there, is another nail in the coffin of the idea that L21 arose in the British Isles.

Do you think there is any chance the main body of L21 entered the Isles from scandinavia ? Before L21 made it to northern France?


no. Archaeology identifies no migration from Norway to Britain prior to the Viking Age. 

I'm thinking L21 entered the British Isles from Northern France. Just my opinion.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 18, 2010, 02:51:14 PM
I think the relative scarcity of R-P312* in the British Isles, as well as its more southeasterly distribution there, is another nail in the coffin of the idea that L21 arose in the British Isles.

Do you think there is any chance the main body of L21 entered the Isles from scandinavia ? Before L21 made it to northern France?


no. Archaeology identifies no migration from Norway to Britain prior to the Viking Age. 
I have to partially disagree here.
I am in agreement that the main body of L21 did not enter Britain from Scandinavia.
However according to James Campbell there is archaeological evidence of people coming in with the Angles from an area outside the traditional Angle homeland, specifically northern Denmark and southern Norway. So I think it is possible that some portion (probably a pretty small one) of L21 may have come to Britain from Scandinavia before the Vikings.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: OConnor on April 18, 2010, 03:39:43 PM
I was thinking more southern scandinavia.

If some of these people reached the eastern end of the Baltic Sea from further east or south,.. before entering western europe, I wondered if there may have been a split. One group going north, one west.



Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 18, 2010, 03:58:07 PM
I did a little recruiting from Ysearch last night, trying to bring as many R-P312* into the R-P312 and Subclades Project who are not yet in it as possible. The response has been pretty good.

I believe 12 have joined already. Two of them turned out to be U152+ (their Ysearch entries just said R1b1b2a1b), and two of them are untested for L21 (one of Portuguese ancestry, the other, German). The remaining eight are R-P312*.

I just went into Ysearch and used "Search by Haplogroup", entering R1b1b2a1b and Western Europe, Scandinavia, and Eastern Europe, in succession. I emailed everyone in all of those categories who was not already a member of the project.

Needless to say, it took awhile.
Great. Your efforts are very much appreciated.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 18, 2010, 04:11:17 PM
I did a little recruiting from Ysearch last night, trying to bring as many R-P312* into the R-P312 and Subclades Project who are not yet in it as possible. The response has been pretty good.

I believe 12 have joined already. Two of them turned out to be U152+ (their Ysearch entries just said R1b1b2a1b), and two of them are untested for L21 (one of Portuguese ancestry, the other, German). The remaining eight are R-P312*.

I just went into Ysearch and used "Search by Haplogroup", entering R1b1b2a1b and Western Europe, Scandinavia, and Eastern Europe, in succession. I emailed everyone in all of those categories who was not already a member of the project.

Needless to say, it took awhile.
Great. Your efforts are very much appreciated.

Thanks!

Since last night, if I am counting correctly, 17 new members have been added to the R-P312 and Subclades Project. Two were U152+, five have not been tested for L21 yet (one of those is R1b North-South, though, so he's R-P312*), but the rest are R-P312*.

I got them all sorted out, but I am short on time right now, so I will have to send them all welcome emails later.

All are continentals.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: Mike Walsh on April 18, 2010, 06:02:18 PM
no. Archaeology identifies no migration from Norway to Britain prior to the Viking Age. 
Were there any migrations from Britain to Scandinavia prior to the Viking Age?


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: alan trowel hands. on April 18, 2010, 07:44:57 PM
no. Archaeology identifies no migration from Norway to Britain prior to the Viking Age.  
Were there any migrations from Britain to Scandinavia prior to the Viking Age?


I certainly am not aware of any prehistoric cultural patterns suggestive of a migration to Scandinavia.  From what I know there were no major connections between Britain and Norway in prehistoric times.  It seems to have not happened until the Germanic migration period. Denmark is a less easy to be definitive about.  There were certainly links between Denmark and SE England across Doggerland in the Mesolithic.  I think there was at least trade contact in the Neolithic and Bronze Ages. However, there was no really obvious cross North Sea cultures in those periods.  

Other than the trade in precious metals etc the closest cultural affinities of the British Isles are between the two islands rather than anywhere on the continent during a hell of a lot of the Neolithic and Bronze Age i.e. there was strong insularity.  There are only limited moments of prehistory where any continental links beyond metalwork trade can be seen.   That is why people focus on periods like the start of the Neolithic and the beaker period when looking for migrations.  

So, the presence of L21 seems unlikely to be down to prehistoric isles to Norway movements unless very small archaeologically invisible groups of traders made a very big impact. My own suspicion (total guess) is that the Norwegian L21 got there from a continental source in prehistoric times.     


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 18, 2010, 08:41:43 PM

My own suspicion (total guess) is that the Norwegian L21 got there from a continental source in prehistoric times.     

Mine too, although I think we could elevate it from a total guess to an educated guess.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 18, 2010, 09:00:04 PM
Here is another observation about comparing P312* to L21.

A quick look a the continental L21 map Rich maintains shows it has a limited geographic distribution. If one were to draw a line running northeasterly from Biarritz to Vilnius in Latvia, virtually all L21 would fall above the line. More speculatively, if I were to look for a center of gravity located along that line, I would probably put it in southwestern Germany, not far from the upper Rhine. Not a bad candidate for the region where the subclade's rapid expansion began.

The continental distribution for P312* on Rich's map for them is completely different. It is present in those southeastern parts of Europe where L21 appears to be largely absent, as well as all the areas where L21 is found. To draw a line that would encompass nearly all of the the P312*, it would probably have to run south from Helsinki to Istanbul. If I then were to look for a center of gravity along that line, it would probably be in Roumania or western Ukraine. This area includes several river valleys flowing into the Black Sea.

The different distribution appears to be undeniable. Trying to read too much into it may be speculative, but I think it's food for thought.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: alan trowel hands. on April 19, 2010, 02:40:50 PM
Here is another observation about comparing P312* to L21.

A quick look at the continental L21 map Rich maintains shows it has a limited geographic distribution. If one were to draw a line running northeasterly from Biarritz to Vilnius in Latvia, virtually all L21 would fall above the line. More speculatively, if I were to look for a center of gravity located along that line, I would probably put it in southwestern Germany, not far from the upper Rhine. Not a bad candidate for the region where the subclade's rapid expansion began.

The continental distribution for P312* on Rich's map for them is completely different. It is present in those southeastern parts of Europe where L21 appears to be largely absent, as well as all the areas where L21 is found. To draw a line that would encompass nearly all of the the P312*, it would probably have to run south from Helsinki to Istanbul. If I then were to look for a center of gravity along that line, it would probably be in Roumania or western Ukraine. This area includes several river valleys flowing into the Black Sea.

The different distribution appears to be undeniable. Trying to read too much into it may be speculative, but I think it's food for thought.

  

I think the clue as to where P310, S116, U152 and U106 occurred (if you follow the Danubian east-west model) is which clades do you find at the other ends of the north flowing rivers that run from the Danube/central Europe area?  We have poor clade info for the Danube countries themselves (very poor indeed) but we do have reasonable info for countries at the end of rivers that flow perpendicular to (mainly leading north of) the Danube.  The main rivers are the Rhine, the Elbe and the Vistula.  The Rhine has all the clades so it tells us little.  What about the Elbe?  It empties into north-east Germany near Denmark.  What clades are common there?  Unfortunately its not clear but many people see a lot of U106 and some S116 but a huge drop in L21 and U152 in the parts of Germany accessed by the Elbe compared to the Rhine.   So perhaps that is evidence that L21 occurred along the Danube between those rivers i.e. west of the Elbe but east of the Rhine (well east of the Main actually).  That would perhaps point to the Germany-Austria boundary area for L21.  As for the Vistula, I think that empties into Poland.  I understand U106 is big there and S116 known but U152 and L21 are scarce in non-Ashkenazi people in the Baltic area.  So that could imply that U152 happened along the Danube west of the Vistula but U106 and P310 occurred along the Danube east of the Vistula.  

So that model (and it is only educated guessology) would see a spread of SNPs occurring all along the Danube during an east-west move starting with P310 near the Black Sea end, U106 and S116 on the stretch of the Danube between the Black Sea and the Vistula, U152 occurring along the Danube perhaps somewhere around the longitude of the Elbe and L21 occurring on a stretch of the Danube somewhere east of the Main but west of the Elbe.  Basically the mix changed as you went west along the Danube and that had a big effect on what clades went up the rivers that flow roughly perpendicular to the Danube (the largest ones being north flowing).  I realise that a Danubian model is problematic in terms of explaining the large amount of S116* in Iberia and Italy but I suppose if S116 really did occur on the Danube between the Black Sea and the Vistula then a second route by sea could have hopped off around Croatia where the Danubian and Adriatic are reasonably proximate.

Now all I have to do is look at the project maps to see if this model really works!!          



Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: alan trowel hands. on April 19, 2010, 03:01:40 PM
By the way, I think L21 probably originated in the Upper Danube and multiplied up along an Upper Danube-Main-Middle Rhine-Mosselle-Seine/Loire route west but smaller quantities could have made it up other paths such as the east bank of the Rhine, Wesser etc to Holland and Germany etc.  Perhaps a modest quantity even made it up the Elbe. There were certainly Bronze Age trade routes between the Upper Elbe/Czech area and the Elbe mouth/southern Scandinavia area. 


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: Jean M on April 19, 2010, 03:32:24 PM

My own suspicion (total guess) is that the Norwegian L21 got there from a continental source in prehistoric times.     

Mine too, although I think we could elevate it from a total guess to an educated guess.

Agreed. Bell Beaker sites have been found on in Northern Denmark and the southern coast of Norway, but not in Sweden, as far as I know.   


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: alan trowel hands. on April 19, 2010, 06:40:40 PM
Looking at a physical map of Europe I notice I forgot the Oder river and more importantly there is the issue of the Carpathians and the mountains around the Czech Republic.  They could be argued to cause a barrier in the routes north from the Danube towards the north flowing rivers, perhaps indicating that the main split was between those who headed up the Vistula from the Black Sea area and those who went south of the Carpathians along the Danube. Note sure how much of a barrier to heading up the north flowing rivers these mountains would have been though. 


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: vineviz on April 19, 2010, 07:34:20 PM
Quote
 I realise that a Danubian model is problematic in terms of explaining the large amount of S116* in Iberia and Italy but I suppose if S116 really did occur on the Danube between the Black Sea and the Vistula then a second route by sea could have hopped off around Croatia where the Danubian and Adriatic are reasonably proximate.

Italy is not a problem in this regard, because there isn't a "large amount" or R-P312* in Italy.  There is much more U152+ and L11- than R-P312*, for example, and approximately as much U106+ as R-P312*.

VV


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: alan trowel hands. on April 20, 2010, 02:51:28 AM
Quote
 I realise that a Danubian model is problematic in terms of explaining the large amount of S116* in Iberia and Italy but I suppose if S116 really did occur on the Danube between the Black Sea and the Vistula then a second route by sea could have hopped off around Croatia where the Danubian and Adriatic are reasonably proximate.

Italy is not a problem in this regard, because there isn't a "large amount" or R-P312* in Italy.  There is much more U152+ and L11- than R-P312*, for example, and approximately as much U106+ as R-P312*.

VV

I suppose the big issue is how much Mediterranean P310 derived R1b1b2 can be looked at as relatively late overspill from central Europe.  The sheer amount in Italy and especially in Iberia does make attributing it to late prehistoric period, Celts, Germanics etc a little uncomfortable. However, Tim Jansen's calculations of variance for some clades would (if the small sample is not skewing things) support that model.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: vineviz on April 20, 2010, 08:02:43 AM
I suppose the big issue is how much Mediterranean P310 derived R1b1b2 can be looked at as relatively late overspill from central Europe.  The sheer amount in Italy and especially in Iberia does make attributing it to late prehistoric period, Celts, Germanics etc a little uncomfortable. However, Tim Jansen's calculations of variance for some clades would (if the small sample is not skewing things) support that model.

If you are thinking about the "calculations" I think you are thinking about, then I thin the "calculations" were wrong.  We discussed this before, I believe.  Nothing about the variance of any component of R1b1b2 that points toward a much recent influx relative to central Europe.

I'm sure late prehistoric and historic era movements had some impact.  I just don't think they had a significant impact.

VV


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: alan trowel hands. on April 20, 2010, 09:47:19 AM
Vince  am always glad to here your views on this subject.  I would guess that if U152 and most p310 derived clades are seen as being as old in Italy then a Danubian model would need rethought a bit. Do you have an opinion on what direction U152 entered Italy from? 


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: Maliclavelli on April 20, 2010, 12:27:17 PM
Probably it is an old prejudice that everything entered Italy. Certainly nothing downstream R1b1*, which is well documented in Italy from the most ancient times. I thought that R downstream R-L51* was born out of Italy, but probably not R-U152, which can have had the contrary route, from Italy to everywhere. Probably the downstream of R-P312 are born in different country and R-U152 perhaps in Italy. We should find some snipped R-P312 in different European Regions.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: vineviz on April 20, 2010, 01:51:26 PM
Vince  am always glad to here your views on this subject.  I would guess that if U152 and most p310 derived clades are seen as being as old in Italy then a Danubian model would need rethought a bit. Do you have an opinion on what direction U152 entered Italy from? 

I suppose it depends on "how old", and I'll admit up front I am no student of archaelogy or languages.

But I guess my view is that R-U152 is a marker for the hypothosized Italo-Celtic language family, which would reach back to the Chalcolithic era I think.  Language and the Apenninic techo-cultural movements (especially some of the earlier dates imagined) would tie Italy to Danubian and/or Balkan centers of technology at about the right time.

VV


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 20, 2010, 01:52:12 PM
Not to pat myself on the back, but my little late night adventure a few nights ago recruiting in Ysearch for the R-P312 and Subclades Project paid off in a big way. As of today, 30 new members have joined the R-P312 and Subclades Project, all but one of them either a current resident of a European country or able to trace his ancestry there.

Two were U152+.

Of the rest, nine of them have not been tested for L21, but one of those (as I mentioned before) is an R1b North-South guy, so he is surely R-P312*. The other eight I have encouraged to test for L21. Three of them so far have the L21 test on order. I am hoping the others will follow suit.

The other 18 (all R-P312*) break down as follows:

Iberian Peninsula: 8

Western Europe: 8

Greece: 1

Scandinavia: 1

When I get the chance, I plan to rework the categories on the Y-DNA Results page, arranging them by countries rather than merely by region. I will only do that for R-P312*, however. Most of the subclades have their own projects. No need for me to duplicate their work.

The R1b North-South guy I mentioned above (the one never tested for L21) has ancestry in Germany, so you can add him to the Western Europe column above. I don't see any need for him to order an L21 test.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 20, 2010, 06:18:03 PM
Once again, great work Rich. That both projects are as comprehensive as they are is largely due to your efforts.
I look forward to seeing all the new members on the project maps.

EDIT: I see they are all there on the map. I failed to notice there is now a page 2.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 20, 2010, 08:55:18 PM
Once again, great work Rich. That both projects are as comprehensive as they are is largely due to your efforts.
I look forward to seeing all the new members on the project maps.

EDIT: I see they are all there on the map. I failed to notice there is now a page 2.

Thanks!

Yeah, the recent influx of new members pushed the map over onto a second page.

I rearranged the categories, but I haven't parsed out the R-P312* Eastern Europe category yet. That's my next project.



Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: jerome72 on April 27, 2010, 08:32:23 AM
Given that L21 is also P312, we thought, perhaps, wrongly that both groups came in the Western Europe by the same road. But I find that this assumption is contracdiction with the fact that we find very little P312* in Ireland.

If one tries to approximate the haplogroups with prehistoric cultures (very dangerous, I admit it!),maybe we could see this there:
The Corded Ware culture came from the east with the majority as majority haplogroup L21
The Bell-Beaker of the first phase, from Spain and Portugal, going back up northwarth as haplogroup majority P312*.
The meeting of the two cultures have given the Celtic language (from Archaeology magazine that I am reading now).
The Beaker culture is especially prevalent along the lines of communication (coasts, along rivers).
Thus this culture (bell- Beaker) may well be spread without any massive population
P312 * is perhaps first came to Spain by the Mediterranean sea (Balkans?, Italy?)

What do you think about this?


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: MHammers on April 27, 2010, 11:47:35 PM
Given that L21 is also P312, we thought, perhaps, wrongly that both groups came in the Western Europe by the same road. But I find that this assumption is contracdiction with the fact that we find very little P312* in Ireland.

If one tries to approximate the haplogroups with prehistoric cultures (very dangerous, I admit it!),maybe we could see this there:
The Corded Ware culture came from the east with the majority as majority haplogroup L21
The Bell-Beaker of the first phase, from Spain and Portugal, going back up northwarth as haplogroup majority P312*.
The meeting of the two cultures have given the Celtic language (from Archaeology magazine that I am reading now).
The Beaker culture is especially prevalent along the lines of communication (coasts, along rivers).
Thus this culture (bell- Beaker) may well be spread without any massive population
P312 * is perhaps first came to Spain by the Mediterranean sea (Balkans?, Italy?)

What do you think about this?

Corded-ware territory is mostly R1a today and with R1a aDna found in two Corded-ware individuals.  It doesn't mean r1b couldn't be present during that time period in Germany or Poland.   The people of the Corded-ware culture were originally forest foragers who adopted steppe customs/lifestyle about a millenia after the people of the steppe were doing it.   I think for the most part, R1b would have been south and west of them.  The Cordeds were important in the development of the Indo-Iranians though.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: alan trowel hands. on April 28, 2010, 09:47:54 AM
The bushiness of R1b1b2 around the L11/S116/U106/U152/L21 seems to be a unique event in its history where some sort of demographic window of opportunity was seized.  There is no evidence I am aware of of two periods of demographic explosion in R1b1b2's early history.  So, if this is not due to the spread of farming (still very much an IF in my opinion)  then we need to look at cultures who were marginal to the demographic advantages of early farming in the early Neolithic and who somehow gained some sort of major advantage a few 1000 years later in the late Neolithic.  I dont feel my knowledge of late Neolithic eastern/SE Europe and SW Asia is up to making a suggestion.   


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: MHammers on April 28, 2010, 12:57:31 PM
Hi Alan,

As you mentioned, there is something that gives these downstream R1b's a competitive demographic advantage that you don't see in other European Y HG's like J2, E-V13, and G2.  Even HG I, is only strong in certain regions in central and western Europe.  Here are two highly speculative possibilities:

Scenario 1:
R1b came in with the Neolithic farmers, then they inherit the gene for Lactase persistence from the Pontic steppe where it probably emerged.  Funnelbeaker people had this gene, but not the earlier farmers.  The Cucuteni-Tripolye farmers lived in western Ukraine and Romania for about 2,000 yrs., before the major IE expansions began and finally absorbed/overran them.  Plenty of time to learn IE, acquire LP and Kurgan culture.  They, then would have arrived with steppe incursions during the 4th-3rd mil. primarily into Hungary.  Other HGs were maybe more west or among the Cardial-ware Neolithic and didn't benefit from this.

Scenario 2:
R1b were not originally farmers, but arrived in Europe with the Yamnaya migrations c.3000BC.  Their origin still may have been SW Asia, but they came around the Caucasus instead of with the Balkan Neolithic farmers.

Scenario 2 better explains the R1b in some Asia populations.  With either scenario early L11 and P312 was likely close to Hungary, Poland, or Ukraine.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: NealtheRed on April 28, 2010, 03:47:45 PM
Given that L21 is also P312, we thought, perhaps, wrongly that both groups came in the Western Europe by the same road. But I find that this assumption is contracdiction with the fact that we find very little P312* in Ireland.

If one tries to approximate the haplogroups with prehistoric cultures (very dangerous, I admit it!),maybe we could see this there:
The Corded Ware culture came from the east with the majority as majority haplogroup L21
The Bell-Beaker of the first phase, from Spain and Portugal, going back up northwarth as haplogroup majority P312*.
The meeting of the two cultures have given the Celtic language (from Archaeology magazine that I am reading now).
The Beaker culture is especially prevalent along the lines of communication (coasts, along rivers).
Thus this culture (bell- Beaker) may well be spread without any massive population
P312 * is perhaps first came to Spain by the Mediterranean sea (Balkans?, Italy?)

What do you think about this?

Corded-ware territory is mostly R1a today and with R1a aDna found in two Corded-ware individuals.  It doesn't mean r1b couldn't be present during that time period in Germany or Poland.   The people of the Corded-ware culture were originally forest foragers who adopted steppe customs/lifestyle about a millenia after the people of the steppe were doing it.   I think for the most part, R1b would have been south and west of them.  The Cordeds were important in the development of the Indo-Iranians though.

In reference to Corded Ware, was Scandinavia included in its spread? R1a does not exceed 30% of the population in those countries (excluding Finland), and is overshadowed by R1b in Norway, I believe.

I am confused. Is R1a associated with Satem (Indo-Iranian) languages? Didn't Proto-Germanic stem from Corded Ware?


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: MHammers on April 28, 2010, 04:25:07 PM
Some Corded-ware variants were in Finland and Sweden, Battle-Axe culture I think. Proto-Germanic may have evolved in Corded-ware territory (maybe Poland or Belarus?).  It was brought there by interaction with steppe people.  Germanic being a Centum branch spread north and west into today's Germanic countries.

As to R1a and Indo-Iranian, there is a series of subsequent cultures stemming from CW and leading up to Sintashta/Andronovo around the southern Urals.  All eastern-focused carrying the Satem branch and probably lots of R1a.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: NealtheRed on April 28, 2010, 04:43:24 PM
Ok, I see now.

I was just wondering why R1a would play a great role in Centum when today's Centum-speaking populations are low on R1a - including Germanic ones.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: MHammers on April 28, 2010, 06:46:48 PM
Ok, I see now.

I was just wondering why R1a would play a great role in Centum when today's Centum-speaking populations are low on R1a - including Germanic ones.

I think there was considerable overlap of HGs in those places as today.  Generally though, r1a=north and east/satem branch/forest cultures; r1b=south and west/centum branch/steppe and farming cultures.  Only in later times, did satem speakers move south and onto the steppe as Indo-Iranians, Scythians, Slavs, and so on.  The aDna confirms they were heavily R1a. 


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 28, 2010, 09:08:52 PM
Some Corded-ware variants were in Finland and Sweden, Battle-Axe culture I think. Proto-Germanic may have evolved in Corded-ware territory (maybe Poland or Belarus?).  It was brought there by interaction with steppe people.  Germanic being a Centum branch spread north and west into today's Germanic countries.

As to R1a and Indo-Iranian, there is a series of subsequent cultures stemming from CW and leading up to Sintashta/Andronovo around the southern Urals.  All eastern-focused carrying the Satem branch and probably lots of R1a.
A few comments:

I am reasonably certain the Battle Axe culture also reached Denmark.

I believe Germanic is generally thought to have evolved in Scandinavia during what is called the Nordic Bronze Age.

Although I have seen differing statistics, they seem to agree that R1a is most common in Scandinavia in Norway, with Sweden not far behind, but fairly rare in Denmark. R1b is much more common in Denmark than in Sweden or Norway, although Norway seems to have a little more than Sweden.

Trying to reconcile all this might lead to some interesting speculation.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: NealtheRed on April 28, 2010, 09:22:09 PM
Some Corded-ware variants were in Finland and Sweden, Battle-Axe culture I think. Proto-Germanic may have evolved in Corded-ware territory (maybe Poland or Belarus?).  It was brought there by interaction with steppe people.  Germanic being a Centum branch spread north and west into today's Germanic countries.

As to R1a and Indo-Iranian, there is a series of subsequent cultures stemming from CW and leading up to Sintashta/Andronovo around the southern Urals.  All eastern-focused carrying the Satem branch and probably lots of R1a.
A few comments:

I am reasonably certain the Battle Axe culture also reached Denmark.

I believe Germanic is generally thought to have evolved in Scandinavia during what is called the Nordic Bronze Age.

Although I have seen differing statistics, they seem to agree that R1a is most common in Scandinavia in Norway, with Sweden not far behind, but fairly rare in Denmark. R1b is much more common in Denmark than in Sweden or Norway, although Norway seems to have a little more than Sweden.

Trying to reconcile all this might lead to some interesting speculation.

See, this is why it is interesting. R1a is over-shadowed by R1b and I in all three countries, right? I am not too sure, so let me know if I am wrong.

Would R1b be the latecomer to Scandinavia?


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 28, 2010, 09:45:20 PM


See, this is why it is interesting. R1a is over-shadowed by R1b and I in all three countries, right? I am not too sure, so let me know if I am wrong.

Would R1b be the latecomer to Scandinavia?

No, that isn't correct. R1a and R1b are very roughly equal portions in Sweden and Norway, but there is hardly any R1a in Denmark, which has a much greater amount of R1b than either of the other two countries. Denmark tends to look more like Germany in its percentage of R1a and R1b than the other two.

As to who got there first, I could make an argument either way.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 28, 2010, 09:47:48 PM


See, this is why it is interesting. R1a is over-shadowed by R1b and I in all three countries, right? I am not too sure, so let me know if I am wrong.

Would R1b be the latecomer to Scandinavia?

No, that isn't correct. R1a and R1b are very roughly equal portions in Sweden and Norway, but there is hardly any R1a in Denmark, which has a much greater amount of R1b than either of the other two countries. Denmark tends to look more like Germany in its percentage of R1a and R1b than the other two.

As to who got there first, I could make an argument either way.

EDIT: I am having a lot of trouble trying to work out which quote marks to delete and which to leave.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: MHammers on April 29, 2010, 12:00:13 AM
Is most of Scandinavian R1b P312* or U106?  I know there are about 20 or so L21's. 


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: rms2 on April 29, 2010, 08:13:00 AM
Is most of Scandinavian R1b P312* or U106?  I know there are about 20 or so L21's. 

So far there is more L21 than R-P312* (I think), but it's close, and it differs by country.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: MHammers on April 29, 2010, 11:44:16 AM
Is most of Scandinavian R1b P312* or U106?  I know there are about 20 or so L21's.  

So far there is more L21 than R-P312* (I think), but it's close, and it differs by country.

Interesting, this suggests that R1b is a late-comer to Scandinavia given that P312 and U106 were discovered earlier.  However, the number of members in any of these  groups is probably still too low to be sure.


Title: Re: P312* and L21- Some Observations on Distribution
Post by: GoldenHind on April 29, 2010, 07:14:40 PM
Is most of Scandinavian R1b P312* or U106?  I know there are about 20 or so L21's. 
I assume you mean all P312 rather than just P312*. It is an interesting question, and I don't think anyone really knows. My best guess is that it is very roughly 50/50 between P312 and U106, although, as Rich says, it varies by country.

As for P312* vs. L21, the numbers are both too close and too few to make any predictions. My best guess is that L21 is more common in Norway and P312* more common in Sweden. Denmark is anybody's guess.