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Title: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 26, 2012, 06:59:14 PM
Who would now be considered the remants of the first farmers in places like Ireland and Britain in term of yDNA? If R1b is copper age and I clades tend to be interpreted as Mesolithic a lot of the time then it doesnt appear to leave much. 


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 26, 2012, 08:20:44 PM
As far as I know I-M26 is early to late Neolithic in many places in Western Europe, and its presence in Treilles,France 3000BC confirms it.

The presence of G-P15+ folks in Avellaner, Catalonia 5000 BC, then Treilles, France 3000 BC, and also in G2a3 in 5000 BC Germany, would lead me to think that first farmers in NW Europe were likely G-P15+ folks.

PS: I wouldn't yet assign R1b-L11 as Copper age haplogroup.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: OConnor on May 26, 2012, 08:57:20 PM
Who would now be considered the remants of the first farmers in places like Ireland and Britain in term of yDNA? If R1b is copper age and I clades tend to be interpreted as Mesolithic a lot of the time then it doesnt appear to leave much.  

I enjoyed my tour of Ceide Fields a few years ago.
Ceide Fields claim a farming existance some 6000 years ago. What European haplo groups were in existance back then?

http://www.museumsofmayo.com/ceide1.htm


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 27, 2012, 07:58:45 AM
As I recall (I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong), Coon described the Neolithic inhabitants of Britain as a longheaded, Mediterranean type.

I suspect they were G2a , I2a, and perhaps even E1b1b.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Bren123 on May 27, 2012, 08:14:53 AM
Who would now be considered the remants of the first farmers in places like Ireland and Britain in term of yDNA? If R1b is copper age and I clades tend to be interpreted as Mesolithic a lot of the time then it doesnt appear to leave much. 

Wasn't Ötzi copper-age?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 27, 2012, 08:15:13 AM
As I recall (I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong), Coon described the Neolithic inhabitants of Britain as a longheaded, Mediterranean type.

I suspect they were G2a , I2a, and perhaps even E1b1b.


I have several concerns with ancient dna testing.

One is the risk of contamination. One bad result could have us all back to thinking that R1b is "Cro-Magnon", for example.

Another is the paucity of data. We just don't have that much.

G2a has shown up frequently enough in fairly widely separated Neolithic and Copper Age remains for us to safely conclude, I think, that G2a was an important factor in Neolithic Europe.

Otherwise, we're getting little hints here and there, but nothing concrete.

I don't think R1b was in Europe before the late Neolithic, but we need a lot more aDNA testing.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 27, 2012, 08:17:14 AM
Who would now be considered the remants of the first farmers in places like Ireland and Britain in term of yDNA? If R1b is copper age and I clades tend to be interpreted as Mesolithic a lot of the time then it doesnt appear to leave much.  

Wasn't Ötzi copper-age?

Yes, he was, but G2a has shown up at Neolithic sites at Treilles in France, Derenburg in Germany, and at the Avellaner Cave in Catalonia.

Ancient Western Eurasian DNA (http://www.buildinghistory.org/distantpast/ancientdna.shtml)


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Bren123 on May 27, 2012, 08:23:48 AM
As I recall (I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong), Coon described the Neolithic inhabitants of Britain as a longheaded, Mediterranean type.

I suspect they were G2a , I2a, and perhaps even E1b1b.


I have several concerns with ancient dna testing.

One is the risk of contamination. One bad result could have us all back to thinking that R1b is "Cro-Magnon", for example.

Another is the paucity of data. We just don't have that much.

G2a has shown up frequently enough in fairly widely separated Neolithic and Copper Age remains for us to safely conclude, I think, that G2a was an important factor in Neolithic Europe.

Otherwise, we're getting little hints here and there, but nothing concrete.

I don't think R1b was in Europe before the late Neolithic, but we need a lot more aDNA testing.

Could it be possible that the Amesbury Archer was G2a2b?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 27, 2012, 08:29:02 AM
As I recall (I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong), Coon described the Neolithic inhabitants of Britain as a longheaded, Mediterranean type.

I suspect they were G2a , I2a, and perhaps even E1b1b.


I have several concerns with ancient dna testing.

One is the risk of contamination. One bad result could have us all back to thinking that R1b is "Cro-Magnon", for example.

Another is the paucity of data. We just don't have that much.

G2a has shown up frequently enough in fairly widely separated Neolithic and Copper Age remains for us to safely conclude, I think, that G2a was an important factor in Neolithic Europe.

Otherwise, we're getting little hints here and there, but nothing concrete.

I don't think R1b was in Europe before the late Neolithic, but we need a lot more aDNA testing.

Could it be possible that the Amesbury Archer was G2a2b?


Anything is possible, but since the only male Beaker Folk remains thus far successfully y-dna tested were both R1b, I suspect that is what he was.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 27, 2012, 08:36:50 AM
Here is my non-expert opinion.

There was a Neolithic, physically Mediterranean-type population in much of Europe, including the British Isles, before the arrival of R1b.

R1b arrived in Britain with the Beaker Folk and somehow came out on top in the population shuffle.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: ironroad41 on May 27, 2012, 09:55:24 AM
I have begun reading: Cunliffes "Europe between the Oceans, 9000BC - AD1000".  It is pretty interesting reading.  He is an archaeologist, ret. from Oxford.  He has some interesting opinions:  1. Paleolithic man's descendants are the principal antecedents to those who live in Europe today.  2.  He discounts current thinking on the Kurgans and Beaker folks.(see page 19 of his first chapter).  He does admit to a smaller component of the population contributed by incomers from south-western Asia in the Neolithic.

My opinion is that R1b originated in Western Africa and probably prior to the last Ice Age migrated north into Europe.  R1b's presence in Europe is predominant because that is where it has been, off and on, for the last 40k years.  The environmental changes (see Milankovitch cycles in Wikipedia) since that time have redistributed R1b into Asia and back again and there have been major North South migrations several times until the climate settled down about 9K years ago.

BTW, the shape of my head is oval; I am Z253+ and Ysearch z5hg3


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 27, 2012, 01:54:13 PM
I have begun reading: Cunliffes "Europe between the Oceans, 9000BC - AD1000".  It is pretty interesting reading.  He is an archaeologist, ret. from Oxford.  He has some interesting opinions:  1. Paleolithic man's descendants are the principal antecedents to those who live in Europe today.  2.  He discounts current thinking on the Kurgans and Beaker folks.(see page 19 of his first chapter).  He does admit to a smaller component of the population contributed by incomers from south-western Asia in the Neolithic.

My opinion is that R1b originated in Western Africa and probably prior to the last Ice Age migrated north into Europe.  R1b's presence in Europe is predominant because that is where it has been, off and on, for the last 40k years.  The environmental changes (see Milankovitch cycles in Wikipedia) since that time have redistributed R1b into Asia and back again and there have been major North South migrations several times until the climate settled down about 9K years ago.

BTW, the shape of my head is oval; I am Z253+ and Ysearch z5hg3


That book is dated in terms of the genetic information Cunliffe had to work with. At the time, the received version was that R1b spent the LGM in the Franco-Cantabrian Ice Age Refuge and was Cro-Magnon.

It is extremely unlikely that R1b originated in western Africa, given that its closest genetic cousins (the Super K Family) are concentrated in Asia. The oldest R1b is not in western Africa, either. It's in Asia.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 27, 2012, 02:23:28 PM
By the way, I believe most head shapes are actually more or less oval. The degree of brachycephaly, dolichocephaly, or mesocephaly is determined by comparing the maximum width of the skull to its maximum length.

Quote
Cephalic index is the ratio of the maximum width of the head multiplied by 100 divided by its maximum length (i.e., in the horizontal plane, or front to back).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cephalic_index (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cephalic_index)

I think my own head is mesocephalic, but I have never had it properly measured with anthropological precision, using a set of calipers.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 27, 2012, 02:37:01 PM
Here is a description from an anthropology course of how to measure the skull.

http://www.redwoods.edu/instruct/agarwin/anth_6_ancestry.htm (http://www.redwoods.edu/instruct/agarwin/anth_6_ancestry.htm)

Quote
ANTH 6 - Forensic Anthropology
Ancestry

 LAB PRACTICUM

1.  CRANIAL INDEX:  Use the spreading caliper.  Measure the maximum breadth of the skull from Euryon (eu) to Euryon (eu).  Measure the length of the skull from Glabella (g) to Opisthocranion (op).  Divide the cranial breadth by the cranial length and multiply by 100.   (See LANDMARKS.) 



Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 27, 2012, 02:59:58 PM
Here is a description from an anthropology course of how to measure the skull.

http://www.redwoods.edu/instruct/agarwin/anth_6_ancestry.htm (http://www.redwoods.edu/instruct/agarwin/anth_6_ancestry.htm)

Quote
ANTH 6 - Forensic Anthropology
Ancestry

 LAB PRACTICUM

1.  CRANIAL INDEX:  Use the spreading caliper.  Measure the maximum breadth of the skull from Euryon (eu) to Euryon (eu).  Measure the length of the skull from Glabella (g) to Opisthocranion (op).  Divide the cranial breadth by the cranial length and multiply by 100.   (See LANDMARKS.) 


There is a pretty neat image on the right side of this article (http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2008/03/17-03.html) that shows how the various metrics of a skull are taken. You can enlarge the image by clicking on it.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: ironroad41 on May 27, 2012, 03:28:05 PM
I have begun reading: Cunliffes "Europe between the Oceans, 9000BC - AD1000".  It is pretty interesting reading.  He is an archaeologist, ret. from Oxford.  He has some interesting opinions:  1. Paleolithic man's descendants are the principal antecedents to those who live in Europe today.  2.  He discounts current thinking on the Kurgans and Beaker folks.(see page 19 of his first chapter).  He does admit to a smaller component of the population contributed by incomers from south-western Asia in the Neolithic.

My opinion is that R1b originated in Western Africa and probably prior to the last Ice Age migrated north into Europe.  R1b's presence in Europe is predominant because that is where it has been, off and on, for the last 40k years.  The environmental changes (see Milankovitch cycles in Wikipedia) since that time have redistributed R1b into Asia and back again and there have been major North South migrations several times until the climate settled down about 9K years ago.

BTW, the shape of my head is oval; I am Z253+ and Ysearch z5hg3


That book is dated in terms of the genetic information Cunliffe had to work with. At the time, the received version was that R1b spent the LGM in the Franco-Cantabrian Ice Age Refuge and was Cro-Magnon.

It is extremely unlikely that R1b originated in western Africa, given that its closest genetic cousins (the Super K Family) are concentrated in Asia. The oldest R1b is not in western Africa, either. It's in Asia.

I don't believe that Cunliffe believes some of the "current genetic info".  Last year, if I recall, The Iberian refugia concept was dead?

I think the point is that Geography and Climatic conditions are his big "drivers".  It wouldn't surprise me that there is a concentration of R1b in Asia, but I think they got there from Europe?  Possibly between the last two ice ages.  I don't think parts of Asia ever received the population diminution that Europe had due to the Ice Age and the great flood.  Given the above scenario we might expect that R1b would be dominant in Asia, and I don't believe that assertion can be made.

One of the occasional contributors to rootsweb - archives told me in no uncertain terms that my haplotype was Asian, not European and suggested that I probably was the result of the roman guards that bordered scotland.  I have since been found to have R- L21/Z253+ SNP's and I believe that would dispute the gentlemens assertion.

My major point is that we cannot use current distributions of Haplotypes/groups to tell us points of origin.  So how do we make sense of the data we have?  I simply believe it has to be logical, logical in the sense that if R1b is the dominant Hg in Europe now, it must have had a toehold here to get started. Further, I don't buy the mass execution theme either.  Why would it have happened.  I think one of the current threads discusses the coexistence of HFG with the incoming farmers and the apparent peaceful relationship that might have existed?  We are dealing with a lot of time here and many environmental changes; we have to look for better ways to explain what we observe.  JMHO.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 28, 2012, 06:12:48 AM
We are forced to use the current distributions of y haplogroups and their variance, at least to some extent, to try to ferret out their points of origin. Does it seem likely to you that, despite the fact that all of R1b's Super K family cousins are found together in Asia, especially the closest cousins, like N, Q, R1a, and R2, that a branch of R1 wandered separately all the way over to western Africa before giving rise to R1b?

Besides that, no ancient dna discoveries to date support the notion that R1b was in Europe before the late Neolithic or Copper Age.

I know we don't have a huge number of aDNA y-dna results yet, but it seems odd that R1b hasn't turned up in anything earlier than the Bell Beaker remains from Kromsdorf, Germany, circa 2600-2500 BC. Plenty of G2a, some I2a, some E1b1b, some F*, but no R1b.

Maybe it will turn up in a Cro-Magnon skeleton tomorrow, but one would think that, if R1b has been in Europe for the last 40k years, it would have popped up in one of those skeletons from Treilles or Avellaner or Derenburg.

I wonder, if we did not have recorded history, if some folks would be arguing that R1b must have been in the Americas, Australia, and New Zealand for the last 40k years to have achieved such dominance in those places. Why, surely it must have been the first y haplogroup across the Bering Strait!


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: ironroad41 on May 28, 2012, 07:27:17 AM
[quote author=rms2 link=topic=

I wonder, if we did not have recorded history, if some folks would be arguing that R1b must have been in the Americas, Australia, and New Zealand for the last 40k years to have achieved such dominance in those places. Why, surely it must have been the first y haplogroup across the Bering Strait!
[/quote]

I sense a touch of sarcasm, but this is my point!!  As far as I can understand, we cannot extract geographical info from DNA?  I understand the concept of relative variance,I admit it does give us a snapshot in time of an existing set of haplotypes, and maybe it is all we have to work with.  That said, early history is one succession of population movements due to environmental and food supply changes.

To be specific to the question posed by this subject, I would probably opt for R1b as the first farmers.  The better question is who taught them how to farm?  Was it a natural extension from the HFG stage?  Was it brought by a new culture.  Did the significant improvement in climate and a wandering shaman relating how people lived in the East bring agriculture?  The whole ethos of early americans centers around traveling traders, why not the same in Europe?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 28, 2012, 07:59:19 AM
Quote from: ironroad41
. . .

R1b's presence in Europe is predominant because that is where it has been, off and on, for the last 40k years . . .

My major point is that we cannot use current distributions of Haplotypes/groups to tell us points of origin.


Do you see the contradiction in the two statements above?

My point in my last post was that modern y haplogroup frequency, while important and interesting, cannot tell us where a haplogroup originated, and it certainly cannot tell us that a haplogroup that probably first arose in Asia about 18k years ago spent the last 40k years in Europe.

Were it not for recorded history, R1b frequency in the Americas, Australia, and New Zealand would support the same sort of argument for those places that is embodied in your statement that, "R1b's presence in Europe is predominant because that is where it has been, off and on, for the last 40k years."


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 28, 2012, 08:20:56 AM
Quote from: ironroad41
. . .

R1b's presence in Europe is predominant because that is where it has been, off and on, for the last 40k years . . .

My major point is that we cannot use current distributions of Haplotypes/groups to tell us points of origin.


Do you see the contradiction in the two statements above?

My point in my last post was that modern y haplogroup frequency, while important and interesting, cannot tell us where a haplogroup originated, and it certainly cannot tell us that a haplogroup that probably first arose in Asia about 18k years ago spent the last 40k years in Europe.

Were it not for recorded history, R1b frequency in the Americas, Australia, and New Zealand would support the same sort of argument for those places that is embodied in your statement that, "R1b's presence in Europe is predominant because that is where it has been, off and on, for the last 40k years."


I have to make a slight correction. In the post above, I wrote that R1b is about 18k years old. I felt funny about that when I wrote it. I knew it wasn't quite right. It is actually R1 (M173), the ancestor of R1b, that is about 18k years old.

R1b would be younger than that.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: ironroad41 on May 28, 2012, 08:34:51 AM
Quote from: ironroad41
. . .

R1b's presence in Europe is predominant because that is where it has been, off and on, for the last 40k years . . .

My major point is that we cannot use current distributions of Haplotypes/groups to tell us points of origin.


Do you see the contradiction in the two statements above?

My point in my last post was that modern y haplogroup frequency, while important and interesting, cannot tell us where a haplogroup originated, and it certainly cannot tell us that a haplogroup that probably first arose in Asia about 18k years ago spent the last 40k years in Europe.

Were it not for recorded history, R1b frequency in the Americas, Australia, and New Zealand would support the same sort of argument for those places that is embodied in your statement that, "R1b's presence in Europe is predominant because that is where it has been, off and on, for the last 40k years."

  How do you know R1b originated in Asia?  Using the same arithmetic that says my haplotype is less than 2K years old?  Something is messing up the arithmetic, maybe its hidden mutations, whatever.  I just don't believe we have a solid math basis to say very much about time yet using DNA?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 28, 2012, 09:05:02 AM
Quote from: ironroad41
. . .

R1b's presence in Europe is predominant because that is where it has been, off and on, for the last 40k years . . .

My major point is that we cannot use current distributions of Haplotypes/groups to tell us points of origin.


Do you see the contradiction in the two statements above?

My point in my last post was that modern y haplogroup frequency, while important and interesting, cannot tell us where a haplogroup originated, and it certainly cannot tell us that a haplogroup that probably first arose in Asia about 18k years ago spent the last 40k years in Europe.

Were it not for recorded history, R1b frequency in the Americas, Australia, and New Zealand would support the same sort of argument for those places that is embodied in your statement that, "R1b's presence in Europe is predominant because that is where it has been, off and on, for the last 40k years."

  How do you know R1b originated in Asia?  Using the same arithmetic that says my haplotype is less than 2K years old?  Something is messing up the arithmetic, maybe its hidden mutations, whatever.  I just don't believe we have a solid math basis to say very much about time yet using DNA?

I believe R1b originated in Asia based on the known evidence: the SNP trail, the presence of R1b's closest y-dna relatives (the rest of the Super K Family) in Asia, distribution, and haplotype variance. Taken together, it's pretty convincing, at least to me.

I doubt very much that your haplotype, as it currently is, is even 2k years old, if by that you mean you inherited it without any changes from a y-dna ancestor who lived that long ago.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: ironroad41 on May 28, 2012, 09:22:53 AM
 You are correct.  I miswrote.  It should have been Z253 vice my haplotype.  I know for sure, based on an NPE event, that my haplotype is less than 300 years old!

I admit, I believe I can only estimate about 2k years back in time using TMRCA analysis.  After that, its a real guessing game.  Correlated data sets result in overcounting mutations, multiple steps also increase the number of apparent mutations if you accept that all mutations are single step.  The balance point appears to be hidden mutations which are of course uncounted, especially on the slower and middle rate dys loci.

If one didn't know my SNP status, I would be placed in Ht 35 that VV used to manage, my haplotype much more resembles early R-L xx modals.

we are drifting away from the subject material and I apologize, this, at present, is a no-win discussion.

It may just be that Zhivs fudge factor accounts for hidden mutations?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 28, 2012, 09:32:44 AM
If I had to bet on the situation of R1b in European prehistoric dynamics I would put my Money on this:

Quote from: Busby.et.al.2010

Increased Resolution Within Y-Chromosome Haplogroup R1b M269 Sheds Light On The Neolithic Transition In Europe


George Busby et al.

Early studies on classical polymorphisms have largely been vindicated by the growing tome of information on the genetic structure of European populations, with mtDNA, Y-Chromosome and autosomal markers all combining to give a fundamental pattern of migration from the East. The processes behind this pattern are however, less clear, particularly with regard to uniparental markers. Much debate still rages about how best to use Y and mtDNA to date particular historical movements, or indeed if it is appropriate at all. For example, whilst some progress has been made recently in calibrating the mtDNA clock, the selection of a mutation rate with which to date the Y-Chromosome is contentious, as the two most favoured values can give dates that differ by a factor of three. In order to address this we have investigated the sub-lineages of the common European haplogroup R1b-M269. This haplogroup has been shown to be clinal in Europe, and more recently has been posited to be the result of the Neolithic expansion from the Near East.Here, we use newly characterised SNPs downstream of M269 to produce a refined picture of the haplogroup in Europe, and further show that the diversity of this lineage cannot be entirely attributed to Neolithic migration out of Anatolia. We use simple coalescent simulations to estimate an absolute lower bound for the age of the sub-haplogoups. Rather than originating with the farmers from the East, we suggest that the sub-structure of R1b-M269 visible in Europe today, and thus the great majority of European paternal ancestry, is the result of the interaction between the Neolithic wave of expansion and populations of early Europeans already present in the path of the wave.

My only digression would be that R1b-M269 didn't expand with the Neolithic wave, but some of its sub-clades were part of the Indo-European expansion.

PS: We won't find any R1b-M269 in Europe pre-Neolithic, unless we check in the right places. Mainly, check the Baltic states for R-U106, Romania for R1b-L23(xL51), the Western fringes of Frances, and perhaps the Franco Cantabrian region for R-P312. It is also clear to me, that some linages of R1b were Indo-European speaking, others weren't, and others learned the language from their cousins.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Heber on May 28, 2012, 10:18:43 AM
Alan,

I believe the transition from Mesolithic hunter gather to Neolithic farmer happened in or near Gobelki Tepe in Anatolia on the Northern Edge of the Fertile Crescent. This could have been R1b and R1a in close proximity with R1a moving North and East and R1b moving West.
The first Neolithic migration out of Anatolia could have been Maritine to Crete and the Greek Islands.
Later waves moved through the Balkens and up the Danibe as far as the Iron Gates.
The Maritine wave moved as L11* to the Rhone valley and became the Bell Beaker culture. It continued around the Atlantic coast and became P312 in places like Tagus valley, Galicia and Morbihan. it joined forces with its cousins who came by the slower river and overland route.
This was not a single migration but several waves continuing in the footsteps of the previous waves overlapping in the Neolithic, Atlantic Megalithic, Copper, Bronze and Iron ages. When the Iron age Celts arrived in Ireland they were following in the footsteps of their Megalithic ancestors in places like Ceide Fields and Carrowmore.


The cover story of the June 2011 National Geographic magazine features the extraordinary archaeological site of Göbekli Tepe in southern Turkey. Built some 11,600 years ago, it is revolutionizing theories on the development of agriculture, religion, and civilization.

http://science.nationalgeographic.com/science/archaeology/photos/gobekli-tepe/

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/06/gobekli-tepe/musi-photography

Who were the people who build this monument. Could they have been R1b-M269 or their ancestors. The Myres study places R1b-M269 in Anotolia at that period. I have plotted the Myres data by Age and Frequency and speculated on the possible migration paths of M269 to his decendants M222.

http://www.box.net/shared/3vxrpcxib9
http://www.box.net/shared/hxp8ie25yv
http://www.box.net/shared/f74c09ti18
http://www.box.net/shared/5q6v31vqcx

Gobekli Tepe would appear to have marked the transition from hunter gatherer to farming. It is located on the northern edge of the Fertile Crescent.
One of the oldest Neolithic Cities was nearby Catal Huyuk.
http://www.catalhoyuk.com/history.html
Some of the first evidence for plant domestication comes from Nevalı Çori, a settlement in the mountains scarcely 20 miles away.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neval%C4%B1_%C3%87ori

"At first the Neolithic Revolution was viewed as a single event—a sudden flash of genius—that occurred in a single location, Mesopotamia, between the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers in what is now southern Iraq, then spread to India, Europe, and beyond. Most archaeologists believed this sudden blossoming of civilization was driven largely by environmental changes: a gradual warming as the Ice Age ended that allowed some people to begin cultivating plants and herding animals in abundance. The new research suggests that the "revolution" was actually carried out by many hands across a huge area and over thousands of years. And it may have been driven not by the environment but by something else entirely".

"Schmidt speculates that foragers living within a hundred-mile radius of Göbekli Tepe created the temple as a holy place to gather and meet, perhaps bringing gifts and tributes to its priests and crafts­people. Some kind of social organization would have been necessary not only to build it but also to deal with the crowds it attracted".

"Over time, Schmidt believes, the need to acquire sufficient food for those who worked and gathered for ceremonies at Göbekli Tepe may have led to the intensive cultivation of wild cereals and the creation of some of the first domestic strains. Indeed, scientists now believe that one center of agriculture arose in southern Turkey—well within trekking distance of Göbekli Tepe—at exactly the time the temple was at its height. Today the closest known wild ancestors of modern einkorn wheat are found on the slopes of Karaca Dağ, a mountain just 60 miles northeast of Göbekli Tepe. In other words, the turn to agriculture celebrated by V. Gordon Childe may have been the result of a need that runs deep in the human psyche, a hunger that still moves people today to travel the globe in search of awe-inspiring sights".

"Some of the first evidence for plant domestication comes from Nevalı Çori (pronounced nuh-vah-LUH CHO-ree), a settlement in the mountains scarcely 20 miles away. Like Göbekli Tepe, Nevalı Çori came into existence right after the mini ice age, a time archaeologists describe with the unlovely term Pre-pottery Neolithic (PPN)".


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 28, 2012, 12:31:25 PM
If I had to bet on the situation of R1b in European prehistoric dynamics I would put my Money on this:

Quote from: Busby.et.al.2010

Increased Resolution Within Y-Chromosome Haplogroup R1b M269 Sheds Light On The Neolithic Transition In Europe


George Busby et al.

Early studies on classical polymorphisms have largely been vindicated by the growing tome of information on the genetic structure of European populations, with mtDNA, Y-Chromosome and autosomal markers all combining to give a fundamental pattern of migration from the East. The processes behind this pattern are however, less clear, particularly with regard to uniparental markers. Much debate still rages about how best to use Y and mtDNA to date particular historical movements, or indeed if it is appropriate at all. For example, whilst some progress has been made recently in calibrating the mtDNA clock, the selection of a mutation rate with which to date the Y-Chromosome is contentious, as the two most favoured values can give dates that differ by a factor of three. In order to address this we have investigated the sub-lineages of the common European haplogroup R1b-M269. This haplogroup has been shown to be clinal in Europe, and more recently has been posited to be the result of the Neolithic expansion from the Near East.Here, we use newly characterised SNPs downstream of M269 to produce a refined picture of the haplogroup in Europe, and further show that the diversity of this lineage cannot be entirely attributed to Neolithic migration out of Anatolia. We use simple coalescent simulations to estimate an absolute lower bound for the age of the sub-haplogoups. Rather than originating with the farmers from the East, we suggest that the sub-structure of R1b-M269 visible in Europe today, and thus the great majority of European paternal ancestry, is the result of the interaction between the Neolithic wave of expansion and populations of early Europeans already present in the path of the wave.

My only digression would be that R1b-M269 didn't expand with the Neolithic wave, but some of its sub-clades were part of the Indo-European expansion.

PS: We won't find any R1b-M269 in Europe pre-Neolithic, unless we check in the right places. Mainly, check the Baltic states for R-U106, Romania for R1b-L23(xL51), the Western fringes of Frances, and perhaps the Franco Cantabrian region for R-P312. It is also clear to me, that some linages of R1b were Indo-European speaking, others weren't, and others learned the language from their cousins.

I am certainly not competent to criticize the methodology of Busby, et al, but I seriously doubt R-M269 comprised a substantial portion of the y-dna of "populations of early Europeans already present in the path of the wave" of Neolithic expansion.

That's just the "Paleolithic R1b" thing redux.

Time and more aDNA will tell, but where's the R-M269 in the path of the Neolithic expansion? None at Derenburg, none at Treilles, none at Avellaner; Ötzi isn't R1b.

I don't think any pre-Neolithic R1b will be found in the places you named either.

Eventually we will find out, maybe.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 28, 2012, 12:31:47 PM
If I had to bet on the situation of R1b in European prehistoric dynamics I would put my Money on this:
Quote from: Busby.et.al.2010
Increased Resolution Within Y-Chromosome Haplogroup R1b M269 Sheds Light On The Neolithic Transition In Europe

George Busby et al.
....Here, we use newly characterised SNPs downstream of M269 to produce a refined picture of the haplogroup in Europe, and further show that the diversity of this lineage cannot be entirely attributed to Neolithic migration out of Anatolia. We use simple coalescent simulations to estimate an absolute lower bound for the age of the sub-haplogoups. Rather than originating with the farmers from the East, we suggest that the sub-structure of R1b-M269 visible in Europe today, and thus the great majority of European paternal ancestry, is the result of the interaction between the Neolithic wave of expansion and populations of early Europeans already present in the path of the wave.

My only digression would be that R1b-M269 didn't expand with the Neolithic wave, but some of its sub-clades were part of the Indo-European expansion.

What is the evidence that R1b-M269 was part of the "early Europeans already present" before the Neolithic?

Are you or Busby saying M269 was present in Western Europe prior to the Neolithic? If we are talking about SE Europe or western Russia, the Ukraine, etc., that is quite a different thing than Western Europe.

We won't find any R1b-M269 in Europe pre-Neolithic, unless we check in the right places. .
How convenient for your argument. This is hardly parsimonious, but on the other hand, this whole thing is complex.


Mainly, check the Baltic states for R-U106, Romania for R1b-L23(xL51), the Western fringes of Frances, and perhaps the Franco Cantabrian region for R-P312. It is also clear to me, that some linages of R1b were Indo-European speaking, others weren't, and others learned the language from their cousins.
This is probably true. Some R1b probably was IE speaking and some was not.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: intrestedinhistory on May 28, 2012, 12:34:28 PM
Slightly off topic but does ydna I2a being found with G2a, E1b1b and F* give credibility to the I2 originates in Anatolia theory?

And how is it J2 plays no role in all of this?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 28, 2012, 12:40:15 PM
Slightly off topic but does ydna I2a being found with G2a, E1b1b and F* give credibility to the I2 originates in Anatolia theory?

And how is it J2 plays no role in all of this?

I think it probably indicates that I2a was part of the "populations of early Europeans already present in the path of the wave" of Neolithic expansion.

I don't know the answer to your question about J2. It's a good question, though.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 28, 2012, 12:51:45 PM

I am certainly not competent to criticize the methodology of Busby, et al, but I seriously doubt R-M269 comprised a substantial portion of the y-dna of "populations of early Europeans already present in the path of the wave" of Neolithic expansion.

That's just the "Paleolithic R1b" thing redux.

Well, I never said that R-M269 was a substantial portion of the y-DNA of early Europeans, I simply said that part of it was present in Western Europe pre-Neolithic, but not just in Western Europe, also Eastern Europe and West Asia, it was widespread.

Time and more aDNA will tell, but where's the R-M269 in the path of the Neolithic expansion? None at Derenburg, none at Treilles, none at Avellaner; Ötzi isn't R1b.

Avellanar was Cardial, Treilles was pre-Beaker, and Derenburg was LBK, why on Earth would be expect to find any pre-Neolithic R1b present in sites that were colonized by Neolithic agriculturist, in fact the presence of E-V13 in Avellanar, and I2a in Treilles simply points to Balkanic HG side coming along with the farmers to Western Europe in case of I2a.

I don't think any pre-Neolithic R1b will be found in the places you named either.

Eventually we will find out, maybe.

Well, you are free to think whatever you want, I’m not 100% sure, but I certainly have a picture in mind that fits with the current linguistic, and genetic scenario of Western Europe.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 28, 2012, 12:57:37 PM

What is the evidence that R1b-M269 was part of the "early Europeans already present" before the Neolithic?
What is the evidence that it wasn’t?

Are you or Busby saying M269 was present in Western Europe prior to the Neolithic? If we are talking about SE Europe or western Russia, the Ukraine, etc., that is quite a different thing than Western Europe.
I’m saying that M269 was not only in Western Europe but also in Eastern Europe and Western Asia, it was mixed with R1a in the steppes, and with I1 in Western Europe. I2a was hanging around in the Balkans pre-Neolithic, and they got to be BFF with the incoming G2a farmers.

How convenient for your argument. This is hardly parsimonious, but on the other hand, this whole thing is complex.

Well, Mike, if one is looking for copper, one looks in a site that is known to have copper not iron. Hence, why should we find R1b-M269 in sites known to be colonized by Agriculturists. But I do agree with you that the whole thing is complex.

This is probably true. Some R1b probably was IE speaking and some was not.


I’m actually starting to believe that the R1b-L23(xL51) found in the Balkans, and in Romania was partly responsible for the advancement of Indo-European languages in Eastern and Central Europe, and also Anatolia and Mesopotamia, of course I think R1a was right there by his side.



Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 28, 2012, 01:02:49 PM

I am certainly not competent to criticize the methodology of Busby, et al, but I seriously doubt R-M269 comprised a substantial portion of the y-dna of "populations of early Europeans already present in the path of the wave" of Neolithic expansion.

That's just the "Paleolithic R1b" thing redux.

Well, I never said that R-M269 was a substantial portion of the y-DNA of early Europeans, I simply said that part of it was present in Western Europe pre-Neolithic, but not just in Western Europe, also Eastern Europe and West Asia, it was widespread.

I never said you said that. I was quoting Busby, et al, as you did.

We disagree, because I do not think R1b was present in western Europe before the Neolithic Period. That is why I wrote what I wrote. I don't think it was any part of the "populations of early Europeans already present in the path of the wave" of Neolithic expansion.

The part in quotes was from Busby, not from you.

Time and more aDNA will tell, but where's the R-M269 in the path of the Neolithic expansion? None at Derenburg, none at Treilles, none at Avellaner; Ötzi isn't R1b.

Avellanar was Cardial, Treilles was pre-Beaker, and Derenburg was LBK, why on Earth would be expect to find any pre-Neolithic R1b present in sites that were colonized by Neolithic agriculturist, in fact the presence of E-V13 in Avellanar, and I2a in Treilles simply points to Balkanic HG side coming along with the farmers to Western Europe in case of I2a.

Yes, why would we expect to find R1b there?

And why would we expect to find pre-Neolithic R1b anywhere in Europe?

The point in what I wrote was the part from Busby about R-M269 being "in the path of" the Neolithic expansion. It must have managed to get out of the path pretty neatly to avoid showing up at Neolithic sites. Isn't it odd that I2a got dragged along but not R1b?

I don't think any pre-Neolithic R1b will be found in the places you named either.

Eventually we will find out, maybe.

Well, you are free to think whatever you want, I’m not 100% sure, but I certainly have a picture in mind that fits with the current linguistic, and genetic scenario of Western Europe.


Well, I don't think you do, but I'm not 100% sure either.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 28, 2012, 01:10:49 PM

I never said you said that. I was quoting Busby, et al, as you did.

We disagree, because I do not think R1b was present in western Europe before the Neolithic Period. That is why I wrote what I wrote. I don't think it was any part of the "populations of early Europeans already present in the path of the wave" of Neolithic expansion.
The part in quotes was from Busby, not from you.

Well according to you, what haplogroups were in the path of the Neolithic expansion wave in Western Europe?

Yes, why would we expect to find R1b there?

Why should we expect to find lactose tolerance in SJAPL 3000 BC, when in Treilles a sample of 25+ were all C/C, and in Avellanar 5000 BC they were all C/C, and yet we find it in SJAPL, and Longar. If you are a hunter gatherer in 4000 BC Western Europe, and there are farmers coming to your territory what do you do: I would run for the hills? What happens when most of a population gets greatly reduced and only a few couple of folks survive, you get an inherited loss of diversity.

And why would we expect to find pre-Neolithic R1b anywhere in Europe?
List the reasons why we shouldn’t, and I’d gladly give my thoughts about it.





Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 28, 2012, 01:33:25 PM
Well, I don't know for sure, but I think probably F and I of various kinds were already in Europe before the Neolithic Period. Perhaps G2a was, as well.

I am not familiar with SJAPL, but from what I can see from the comments at this site (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/tag/recent-human-evolution/), 6 of the 19 remains there had the T13910 mutation thought to signify lactase persistence.

I remember seeing the abstract when it came out, but it is one of those pay-to-read articles. I don't buy those unless it is something potentially earth shaking; it may be in JeanM's mini-library. I don't know.

If any of those remains could be shown to have been R1b, that would be something. Unfortunately, apparently no y-dna was obtained from SJAPL.

As for running for the hills, that is one scenario. Trying to kill the farmers might be another option. Still another might be trying to meet and communicate with them.

The "genetic bottleneck" argument has always struck me as very weak and the last refuge of the Paleolithic R1b crowd remnant.

Haplotype variance a trifle low? That's easy to explain! Must have been a "genetic bottleneck"!

Not impossible. Surely such things happen or have happened. But the supposition is not very convincing.

Why wait for me, since you have in your mind such a neat picture that fits all of the multifarious forms of evidence? Go ahead, tell us why we will someday find pre-Neolithic R1b in Europe.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 28, 2012, 01:53:18 PM
Well, I don't know for sure, but I think probably F and I of various kinds were already in Europe before the Neolithic Period. Perhaps G2a was, as well.

Well I2a is linked to the Balkans, F is simply a paragroup, and has been found in Neolithic remains, and is today found mostly outside of Europe. So, once more, what haplogroups were found in Western Europe pre-Neolithic. G2a has been found in sites known to have been colonized from the East.

I am not familiar with SJAPL, but from what I can see from the comments at this site (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/tag/recent-human-evolution/), 6 of the 19 remains there had the T13910 mutation thought to signify lactase persistence.

I remember seeing the abstract when it came out, but it is one of those pay-to-read articles. I don't buy those unless it is something potentially earth shaking; it may be in JeanM's mini-library. I don't know.

If any of those remains could be shown to have been R1b, that would be something. Unfortunately, apparently no y-dna was obtained from SJAPL.

I wouldn’t go as far as to link LCT persistence to R1b, but I was simply providing an example of how aDNA might provide surprising results on occasions, and why those regions I mentioned are important in my opinion. 

As for running for the hills, that is one scenario. Trying to kill the farmers might be another option. Still another might be trying to meet and communicate with them.

I think they did try to communicate with the farmers, but likely failed, on the other hand their long distant R1b-L23(xL51) cousins appear to have been kinder to them than their farming neighbors.

The "genetic bottleneck" argument has always struck me as very weak and the last refuge of the Paleolithic R1b crowd remnant.

Haplotype variance a trifle low? That's easy to explain! Must have been a "genetic bottleneck"!

Not impossible. Surely such things happen or have happened. But the supposition is not very convincing.

Well what is the difference between a bottleneck at the onset of the Neolithic in the Atlantic fringes of France and the Franco Cantabrian region, and a bottleneck circa 3700 ybp in Iberia for R1b-P312 newcomers from Africa? I think the latter is a theory pushed by one of the genetic hobbyists that has argued for a Bronze Age arrival of R1b-P312 in Western Europe.  Why is it that most G2a in Europe today gets TMRCA that is about 2 or 3 times lower than its known presence from aDNA, what should we expect for a haplogroup that got nearly annihilated in the Neolithic? 

Why wait for me, since you have in your mind such a neat picture that fits all of the multifarious forms of evidence? Go ahead, tell us why we will someday find pre-Neolithic R1b in Europe.

I already said it, pre-Neolithic Europe was R1b-M269(xL23) hanging around all of Europe with I1 in Western Europe, and R1a in Eastern Europe, I2a folks were hanging out in the Balkans. Then the G2a farmers move into Europe, and amid the chaos we get some R1b-L23 folks pushed towards the steppes with R1a folks, other folks that were R1b-L23(xL51) remained in isolated spots in Western Europe. The R1b-L51 mutation is born somewhere in Western Europe circa 5000 ybp, subsequently R1b-L11 makes his debut, then some take on for Poland, and some stay behind. R1b-L23(xL51) folks pick Indo-European languages from their cousins R1a, and they started heading to Anatolia, and Northern Mesopotamia region, R1a being Eastwards makes it farther back into Asia, likewise they come trailing (or pushing them) behind R1b-L23 into Europe.  Like I said, it is likely that the R1b-L23(xL51) folks were a lot kinder to their R1b-P312 cousins in Western Europe than the farmers. Likely when the R1b-L23(xL51) folks arrived in Central Europe, it was already dominated by R1b-L51+ folks, and they apparently smoked the peace pipe.

PS: Driving Mechanism for R1b-P312 in Western Europe(Bell Beakers).


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 28, 2012, 02:05:20 PM
Interesting theory, well presented. I'll have to think about it awhile. My initial impression is of a very intricate Rube Goldberg contraption, but that is probably not entirely fair, since I don't really have a well thought out alternative to it.

I don't agree with the version you mentioned by Klyosov, but I do think Jean M's "Stelae People" idea has a lot of merit.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 28, 2012, 02:17:41 PM
Interesting theory, well presented. I'll have to think about it awhile. My initial impression is of a very intricate Rube Goldberg contraption, but that is probably not entirely fair, since I don't really have a well thought out alternative to it.

I don't agree with the version you mentioned by Klyosov, but I do think Jean M's "Stelae People" idea has a lot of merit.

I agree the more hypotheses out there, the better, it is always said that having multiple hypotheses while conducting an experiment reduces the likelihood of creating an Ad Hoc approach.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: intrestedinhistory on May 28, 2012, 02:39:14 PM
Most people link R1b with lactose tolerance

Also where does F* exist today?

So Anatolian and Iranian I2 a product of recent admixture. That's what I always thought but some wanted to push I2 into West Asia.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Jean M on May 28, 2012, 03:12:58 PM
Also where does F* exist today?

See http://www.isogg.org/tree/ISOGG_HapgrpF.html

Quote
Y-DNA haplogroup F is the parent of all Y-DNA haplogroups G through T and contains more than 90% of the world’s population. Haplogroup F was in the original migration out of Africa, or else it was founded soon afterward, because F and its sub-haplogroups are primarily found outside, with very few inside, sub-Saharan Africa. The founder of F could have lived between 60,000 and 80,000 years ago, depending on the time of the out-of-Africa migration.

The major sub-groups of Haplogroup F are Haplogroups G, H, [IJ], and K.... The minor sub-groups, F*, F1, and F2 have not been well studied, but apparently occur only infrequently and primarily in the Indian subcontinent. F* has been observed in two individuals in Portugal, possibly representing a remnant of 15th and 16th century contact of Portugal with India.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: ironroad41 on May 28, 2012, 03:55:27 PM
Quote from: rms2 link=topic=10662.msg131709#msg131709 date

The "genetic bottleneck" argument has always struck me as very weak and the last refuge of the Paleolithic R1b [s
crowd[/s] remnant.

Haplotype variance a trifle low? That's easy to explain! Must have been a "genetic bottleneck"!



I don't want to belabor this issue but for the western part of Europe, especially the NW, bottlenecks and "environmental erasures" have affected our interpretation of the past seriously.  The Ice Ages and their impacts are real.  They erased any evidence of prior life.    The time of the aftermath of the Ice Age, with the Flood thrown in destroyed the shoreline settlements in Europe and I would argue that is where people lived until they were forced to migrate to high land for safety. A few caves have been the only sources of Western Europe info.

re: artifacts; the acid soils of western europe, like the soils of the eastern US are destructive,  nothing remains in these soils after a few hundred years.  Only in the Near East are the soils conducive to providing remnants of prior cultures.

So, the human DNA record is the only record left of what went on in WEstern Europe and it doesn't carry any geographical info.

As an example, look at Z253 and the data set collected so far.  There are about 4 outliers (I'm one); the rest are the standard 13,24 etc.  Some of us are 7 off the modal for the first 12 dys loci and that includes some of the slowest mutators we have.  note: if you are skeptical of "bottlenecks", I am skeptical of GD, it absolutely has no meaning when the mu rates have a range of over 100!

You have every right to be skeptical of the "genetic bottleneck" argument, but I believe it is that small number of haplotype outliers that contain the real story of what happened to R1b in Western Europe.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 28, 2012, 04:36:05 PM
Well, we disagree.

I think it is pretty plain that R1b was born somewhere in Asia and only reached Europe in the form of its descendant, R-M269.

The trouble with the genetic bottle neck as an argument is that it cannot be disproved and it cannot be proven either.

It's just a little too convenient.

One has to haul R1b from Asia all the way to Iberia pretty early to get it there in time for the LGM, or argue that the rest of R1b's closest genetic relatives all moved away from western Europe to Asia at least as early.

It doesn't make sense.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: intrestedinhistory on May 28, 2012, 05:43:53 PM
Also where does F* exist today?

See http://www.isogg.org/tree/ISOGG_HapgrpF.html

Quote
Y-DNA haplogroup F is the parent of all Y-DNA haplogroups G through T and contains more than 90% of the world’s population. Haplogroup F was in the original migration out of Africa, or else it was founded soon afterward, because F and its sub-haplogroups are primarily found outside, with very few inside, sub-Saharan Africa. The founder of F could have lived between 60,000 and 80,000 years ago, depending on the time of the out-of-Africa migration.

The major sub-groups of Haplogroup F are Haplogroups G, H, [IJ], and K.... The minor sub-groups, F*, F1, and F2 have not been well studied, but apparently occur only infrequently and primarily in the Indian subcontinent. F* has been observed in two individuals in Portugal, possibly representing a remnant of 15th and 16th century contact of Portugal with India.


Interesting. Is F* in South Asia associated with West Asian farmers or he first movement into India by South Eurasians?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Humanist on May 28, 2012, 05:48:56 PM
Also where does F* exist today?

This does not answer your question, but...

FTDNA F Project, for all 67 marker haplotypes.  Removed DYS464.  PHYLIP.  Kitsch. 

http://i1096.photobucket.com/albums/g326/dok101/ydna_f_67_exl464.jpg (http://i1096.photobucket.com/albums/g326/dok101/ydna_f_67_exl464.jpg)

Group I (Black)      
95628   Berry   Unknown Origin   F

Group III   (Green)   
150898   Boyer   Unknown Origin   F
24676   Boyd (boyatt)   United Kingdom   F
95377   Boyette   Unknown Origin   F
102538   Boyett   Unknown Origin   F
103311   Boyett   Unknown Origin   F
25086   Boyette   Unknown Origin   F
30389   Boyette   Unknown Origin   F
152923   Boyett   Unknown Origin   F
25431   Boyett   Unknown Origin   F
27860   Boyett   United Kingdom   F
26893   Boyett   United Kingdom   F

Group IV   (Red)   
19746   Slagle   Germany   F
162819   Mohns   Unknown Origin   F

Group VI   (Blue)      
104403   Sharp   Ireland   F
N23773   Sharp   Unknown Origin   F
51626   Sharp   Unknown Origin   F
66728   Butler   England   F
73049   Crawford   Scotland   F
175045   Reeves   Unknown Origin   F3
109142   Giessel   Czech Republic   F
54283   Coe   United States   F
N47214   Buursink   Netherlands   F

Group VII   (Cyan)
      
114737   Wright   England   F

Ungrouped         
164203   Melik-Grigoryan Armenian F3
164944   Baghdoyan    Armenian F3

N37056   Lazar   Assyrian F3   

217766   Taleb   Bahrain   F3

M6309   Al Hussaini   United Arab Emirates   F

127699      Unknown Origin   F

218679   Root   France   F


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Jean M on May 28, 2012, 06:11:31 PM
Interesting. Is F* in South Asia associated with West Asian farmers or the first movement into India by South Eurasians?

F* is much earlier than that. We don't know and will never know its exact birthplace, but we can guess that it was somewhere on the route out of Africa, which is now thought to have crossed Southern Arabia. Somewhere in West Asia there was a branching: some people went west into the Levant and from there into Europe, others went east into South Asia. In South Asia F gave birth to H about 30,000-40,000 years ago. H appears at 25-40% over most of India. We would expect F* to be dotted about that area, where it survives. Such ancient haplogroups are rare in living people today.  
 
Somewhere in West Asia F gave birth to IJK. The latter's offspring K went east, but another offspring IJ went west into the Near East. From IJ we get I and J. Again we would expect the odd H* scattered about in the Near East and Europe, though very rare.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: A_Wode on May 29, 2012, 10:24:24 AM
It would be difficult to argue R1b in its typical western P312+ form in Iberia 30,000 years ago - unless U106+ was hiding out in a frozen Germany at the time - another refugia would be required. Almost all of Iberian R1b YDNA is downstream of P312+ and really leaves no room for U106 in the same location since it is rarely found there today -as there should be equal survival rates.

I suppose one could argue L11* (xP312, xU106) were the mesolithic western Europeans and the branch that expanded northwards into Europe eventually sprouted a U106+ man, and the branch who stayed more or less local sprung a P312+ man and went on from there over time. I don't know what this says about the other R1b branches. Perhaps L23* were among R1a1 in a Ukranian refugia - and subsequently expanded east to Anatolia? Cro-magnon in Levant as R1b1*?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: A_Wode on May 29, 2012, 10:36:00 AM

Why should we expect to find lactose tolerance in SJAPL 3000 BC, when in Treilles a sample of 25+ were all C/C, and in Avellanar 5000 BC they were all C/C, and yet we find it in SJAPL, and Longar. If you are a hunter gatherer in 4000 BC Western Europe, and there are farmers coming to your territory what do you do: I would run for the hills? What happens when most of a population gets greatly reduced and only a few couple of folks survive, you get an inherited loss of diversity.
Interesting thought though. R1b has come out a mathematical majority in almost all the European countries that are densely populated. (excluding Balkans and Scandinavia which are prone to founder effects.)

It is possible R1b was on the defensive from invaders to Europe throughout all of history and still came out on top. This would imply that G, E, and I might represent farmers from West Asia and the Levant. I wouldn't count this out - especially seeing a F* result from the Neolithic.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 29, 2012, 12:07:01 PM

What is the evidence that R1b-M269 was part of the "early Europeans already present" before the Neolithic?
What is the evidence that it wasn’t?

It looks like you answer questions with questions. You are the one who said the following on a proactive basis...

... I already said it, pre-Neolithic Europe was R1b-M269(xL23) hanging around all of Europe with I1 in Western Europe, and R1a in Eastern Europe, I2a folks were hanging out in the Balkans. ...
... I simply said that part of it (R-M269) was present in Western Europe pre-Neolithic, but not just in Western Europe, also Eastern Europe and West Asia, it was widespread.

In your original statement, you emboldened and highlighted in blue your apparent position.

If I had to bet on the situation of R1b in European prehistoric dynamics I would put my Money on this:
Quote from: Busby.et.al.2010
...Here, we use newly characterised SNPs downstream of M269 to produce a refined picture of the haplogroup in Europe, and further show that the diversity of this lineage cannot be entirely attributed to Neolithic migration out of Anatolia. We use simple coalescent simulations to estimate an absolute lower bound for the age of the sub-haplogoups. Rather than originating with the farmers from the East, we suggest that the sub-structure of R1b-M269 visible in Europe today, and thus the great majority of European paternal ancestry, is the result of the interaction between the Neolithic wave of expansion and populations of early Europeans already present in the path of the wave.

You may be right. Busby may be right.  I'm just asking for the evidence, but you answer my question with a question.   How should we interpret your answer? ... you don't have any?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 29, 2012, 01:00:10 PM
Quote from: rms2
The "genetic bottleneck" argument has always struck me as very weak and the last refuge of the Paleolithic R1b crowd remnant.

Haplotype variance a trifle low? That's easy to explain! Must have been a "genetic bottleneck"!

Not impossible. Surely such things happen or have happened. But the supposition is not very convincing.
....
Well what is the difference between a bottleneck at the onset of the Neolithic in the Atlantic fringes of France and the Franco Cantabrian region, and a bottleneck circa 3700 ybp in Iberia for R1b-P312 newcomers from Africa? I think the latter is a theory pushed by one of the genetic hobbyists that has argued for a Bronze Age arrival of R1b-P312 in Western Europe.  Why is it that most G2a in Europe today gets TMRCA that is about 2 or 3 times lower than its known presence from aDNA, what should we expect for a haplogroup that got nearly annihilated in the Neolithic?  

Please explain the point about G2a (G-P15.)  I've read Dienekes make some kind of point on this too.  I may be looking at different TMRCA calculations for Hg G than you, but when I look at Marko Heinila's work, which is the only one I've seen with long haplotypes and tens of thousands of haplotypes, I don't see anything that looks out of place.

Heinila has G2a (G-P15) with an intraclade TMRCA of 11k ybp, but more importantly, the interclade TMRCA for G-P15 and G-M337 as 15k ybp. We can view the 15k ybp as a maximum age for either G-P15 or G-M337 with 11k ybp for G-P15 as approximate time of initial expansion.

For comparison purposes, Heinila has intraclade TMRCAs for R-M269 as 5.7k ybp, R-L23 as 5.7k ybp and R-L11 as 4.8k ybp.

Unfortunately there is not adequate* data for extant brother subclades for L23 and L11 so we can't calculate a valid interclade TMRCA. M269 (R1b1a2) does have a brother Heinila used, M73 (R1b1a1.) The interclade TMRCA for M269 and M73 is 15k ybp so that puts a kind of a maximum on M269's age.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/TMRCAs_for_major_Y_Hgs_by_Heinila_2011.html

Anyway, I just don't see anything that really looks out of place.


* Actually I see he only had a sample size of 16 for R-M73 so I wouldn't bet the world on that either.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 29, 2012, 01:19:28 PM
It looks like you answer questions with questions. You are the one who said the following on a proactive basis...
I simply provided my hypothesis formulated on the data that I have seen from the diversity distribution in Europe, do you have anything to disprove that hypothesis?

In your original statement, you emboldened and highlighted in blue your apparent position.
You may be right. Busby may be right.  I'm just asking for the evidence, but you answer my question with a question.   How should we interpret your answer? ... you don't have any?

What is evidence to you? I provided my interpretation of the current pattern observed in Europe pertaining haplogroup R1b-M269; I equally provided my hypothesis, which is fairly similar to what Busby.et.al provides. If you think I have no answer, then we have nothing to talk about. It is as simple as that.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 29, 2012, 01:25:04 PM
It looks like you answer questions with questions. You are the one who said the following on a proactive basis...
I simply provided my hypothesis formulated on the data that I have seen from the diversity distribution in Europe, do you have anything to disprove that hypothesis?

In your original statement, you emboldened and highlighted in blue your apparent position.
You may be right. Busby may be right.  I'm just asking for the evidence, but you answer my question with a question.   How should we interpret your answer? ... you don't have any?

What is evidence to you? I provided my interpretation of the current pattern observed in Europe pertaining haplogroup R1b-M269; I equally provided my hypothesis, which is fairly similar to what Busby.et.al provides. If you think I have no answer, then we have nothing to talk about. It is as simple as that.

I generally try to discern evidence from interpretation. Evidence is a set of facts.

Can you be a little more specific on the "current pattern" that you based your interpretation on?  What specific diversity, frequency or phylogenetic data are you looking at?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 29, 2012, 01:29:27 PM

... Why is it that most G2a in Europe today gets TMRCA that is about 2 or 3 times lower than its known presence from aDNA, what should we expect for a haplogroup that got nearly annihilated in the Neolithic? 

Please explain the point about G2a (G-P15.)  I've read Dienekes make some kind of point on this too.  I may be looking at different TMRCA calculations for Hg G than you, but when I look at Marko Heinila's work, which is the only one I've seen with long haplotypes and tens of thousands of haplotypes, I don't see anything that looks out of place.

Heinila has G2a (G-P15) with an intraclade TMRCA of 11k ybp, but more importantly, the interclade TMRCA for G-P15 and G-M337 as 15k ybp. We can view the 15k ybp as a maximum age for either G-P15 or G-M337 with 11k ybp for G-P15 as approximate time of initial expansion.

For comparison purposes, Heinila has intraclade TMRCAs for R-M269 as 5.7k ybp, R-L23 as 5.7k ybp and R-L11 as 4.8k ybp.

Unfortunately there is not adequate* data for extant brother subclades for L23 and L11 so we can't calculate a valid interclade TMRCA. M269 (R1b1a2) does have a brother Heinila used, M73 (R1b1a1.) The interclade TMRCA for M269 and M73 is 15k ybp so that puts a kind of a maximum on M269's age.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/TMRCAs_for_major_Y_Hgs_by_Heinila_2011.html

Anyway, I just don't see anything that really looks out of place.


* Actually I see he only had a sample size of 16 for R-M73 so I wouldn't bet the world on that either.

You seem to have missed the “In Europe” part, so the dates you provided are for the overall haplogroup in and outside of Europe, whereas I’m only talking about inside of Europe.

Moreover, take a look here:

 http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10647.msg131171#msg131171 (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10647.msg131171#msg131171)

MarkJost calculated the TMRCA of the G2a data from Rootsi et al.2012, this is what he said:

Quote from: MarkJost
You mentioned the period of G2 but there is a huge amount of Caucasus HT's in the oldest P15  and P16 which would be Eneolithic/Bronze ages in Middle East: 4500 to 3300 BC? 1.5K back to founder suggests a very small, if any, growth but around 5K Ybp must have had substantial growth in the Caucasus after first 60 generations or so. After that a SNP mutation occurs on an average of every 11 generations or 275 years.
...

G-P15 Founder GA=   269   6,726
G-P16 GB coal=   208   5,208
G-P15 GA coal=   200   4,998
G-M285 GB coal=   171   4,275
G-P20 GB coal=   151   3,767
G-M406 GB coal=   143   3,575
G-M406 GB coal=   143   3,575
G-U1 GB coal=   126   3,150
R-L21 GB coal=   105   2,624
G-Page19 GB coal=   92   2,294
G-M527 GB coal=   89   2,235
G-L497 GB coal=   83   2,082
G-M485 GB coal=   82   2,038
G-L91 GB coal=   78   1,959
G-M377 GB coal=   70   1,758"

   


PS: G2a was found in Avellanar, Catalonia 7000 ybp. That is what I was referring to.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 29, 2012, 01:39:22 PM
I generally try to discern evidence from interpretation. Evidence is a set of facts.

Can you be a little more specific on the "current pattern" that you based your interpretation on?  What specific diversity, frequency or phylogenetic data are you looking at?

Explain why non-IndoEuropean speaking Basques have a peak in frequency of R1b-P312+ subclades, whereas IndoEuropean speaking Brits are vastly R1b-L21. Why nonIndoEuropean(Before Roman Conquest) speaking Sardinians have a descent amount of R1b-U152? Why Caucasian speaking Bagvalals have 67.9% R1b-L23(xL51). Why nonIndoeuropan(Prior to Roman Conquest) speaking Iberians such as Aragonenses and Catalonians show a far higher percentage of R1b-M269+ as their Celtic speaking counterparts(i.e. Cantabrians, Asturians, Galicians)? I simply do not see a Bronze age expansion of R1b-M269, where a good portion of Western Europe remains nonIndoEuropean speaking, yet absorbs a lot of "IndoEuropean" y-DNA. I know it is easier to dismiss the Basque today, but pre-Roman Iberian had quite some areas that were nonIndoEuropean speaking, yet those areas show some significant amount of R1b-M269+ today.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 29, 2012, 01:56:27 PM
Quote from: rms2
The "genetic bottleneck" argument has always struck me as very weak and the last refuge of the Paleolithic R1b crowd remnant.

Haplotype variance a trifle low? That's easy to explain! Must have been a "genetic bottleneck"!

Not impossible. Surely such things happen or have happened. But the supposition is not very convincing.
....
Well what is the difference between a bottleneck at the onset of the Neolithic in the Atlantic fringes of France and the Franco Cantabrian region, and a bottleneck circa 3700 ybp in Iberia for R1b-P312 newcomers from Africa? I think the latter is a theory pushed by one of the genetic hobbyists that has argued for a Bronze Age arrival of R1b-P312 in Western Europe.  Why is it that most G2a in Europe today gets TMRCA that is about 2 or 3 times lower than its known presence from aDNA, what should we expect for a haplogroup that got nearly annihilated in the Neolithic?  

Please explain the point about G2a (G-P15.)  I've read Dienekes make some kind of point on this too.  I may be looking at different TMRCA calculations for Hg G than you, but when I look at Marko Heinila's work, which is the only one I've seen with long haplotypes and tens of thousands of haplotypes, I don't see anything that looks out of place.

Heinila has G2a (G-P15) with an intraclade TMRCA of 11k ybp, but more importantly, the interclade TMRCA for G-P15 and G-M337 as 15k ybp. We can view the 15k ybp as a maximum age for either G-P15 or G-M337 with 11k ybp for G-P15 as approximate time of initial expansion.

For comparison purposes, Heinila has intraclade TMRCAs for R-M269 as 5.7k ybp, R-L23 as 5.7k ybp and R-L11 as 4.8k ybp.

Unfortunately there is not adequate* data for extant brother subclades for L23 and L11 so we can't calculate a valid interclade TMRCA. M269 (R1b1a2) does have a brother Heinila used, M73 (R1b1a1.) The interclade TMRCA for M269 and M73 is 15k ybp so that puts a kind of a maximum on M269's age.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/TMRCAs_for_major_Y_Hgs_by_Heinila_2011.html

Anyway, I just don't see anything that really looks out of place.


* Actually I see he only had a sample size of 16 for R-M73 so I wouldn't bet the world on that either.

It is amazing how unsuccessful in expansion R1b (and I suppose R1a too) were between the Upper Palaelithic and 4000BC if you take the variance calculations at face value (which for now I am doing as they seem to have proved themselves by stacking up with ancient DNA nicely).  I think again, the striking thing is the similarity of R1a and R1b and I am beginning to believe their story up to 4000BC (give or take) is mighty similar.  I now think both may have lived in a non-farming zone until that sort of period.  Very modest branching = non farming zone as far as I can see.  It seems to me that the only real difference between R1b and R1a is that some R1b entered the farming zone c. 4000BC.  However, I now am thinking they lived in a very similar area and economy prior to that date.  I am no longer convinced we know anything about R1b much above L23*.  There is a huge chasm of time between the Upper Palaeolithic and 4000BC when nothing tangeable survives except scattered remanants but my feeling now is that the idea that R1b is farmer and R1a hunter is almost certainly wrong pre-4000BC or even later.  So when we look for where R1b was holed up before L23/4000BC I think we can rule out all agricultural areas.  it surely was not located the farming zone.  So, I think we can eliminate Mesopotamia, Anatolia, the Balkans etc where farming was early. We need to look at late non-farming groups.  I am no expert in this very obscure subject.  So where were non-farming population hanging on in 4000BC.  Seems to me to favour some sort of steppes or nearby homeland for R1b.  


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 29, 2012, 02:06:10 PM
I generally try to discern evidence from interpretation. Evidence is a set of facts.

Can you be a little more specific on the "current pattern" that you based your interpretation on?  What specific diversity, frequency or phylogenetic data are you looking at?

Explain why non-IndoEuropean speaking Basques have a peak in frequency of R1b-P312+ subclades, whereas IndoEuropean speaking Brits are vastly R1b-L21.

Why nonIndoEuropean(Before Roman Conquest) speaking Sardinians have a descent amount of R1b-U152?

Why Caucasian speaking Bagvalals have 67.9% R1b-L23(xL51).

Why nonIndoeuropan(Prior to Roman Conquest) speaking Iberians such as Aragonenses and Catalonians show a far higher percentage of R1b-M269+ as their Celtic speaking counterparts(i.e. Cantabrians, Asturians, Galicians)?

I simply do not see a Bronze age expansion of R1b-M269, where a good portion of Western Europe remains nonIndoEuropean speaking, yet absorbs a lot of "IndoEuropean" y-DNA. I know it is easier to dismiss the Basque today, but pre-Roman Iberian had quite some areas that were nonIndoEuropean speaking, yet those areas show some significant amount of R1b-M269+ today.

Thank you for responding specifically.

If I may, I would summarize the "current pattern" that drives your interpretation as...

Several R1b significant populations are non-IE speaking. They would include:
1) Sardinians whom you feel descend from ancient non-IE speakers
2) Basques speaking Euskara
3) Bagvalals speaking Caucasian
4) Aragonenses and Catalonians whom you feel descend from ancient non-IE Iberians

Very good. That's gives a good list to evaluate.  Let me know if I misunderstand something about this "current pattern." I'm not strong on linguistics matters, but hopefully others will add comments while I try to brush up a bit.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 29, 2012, 02:14:36 PM
...and I am interested in getting a detailed map of the spread of agriculture in eastern Europe and SW/ central Asia.  I know some generalistic ones exist but I am hoping Jean M may know where the very latest maps are.  Broadly speaking I am wondering exactly which areas were intruded into by agriculture c. 4000-3000BC, the period when R1b seems to emerge from about 9000 years of non-branching of any significance. Those are the areas where I think R1b must have lurked.  I did see a map that seemed to suggest farming was late even on the south-east shore of the Black Sea just north of the core farming zone including the north-east of Anatolia Black Sea shores but I am skeptical of that map.

Two things strike me about R1b- it seems to have been late to farming and it seems to have had a maritime tradition behind it judging by its exploits after 3000BC.  I am thinking Black Sea shore hunter-fishers.  I do think that R1b was a little closer to the farming zone than R1b but not by much.  


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 29, 2012, 02:15:02 PM

Thank you for responding specifically.

If I may, I would summarize the "current pattern" that drives your interpretation as...

Several R1b significant populations are non-IE speaking. They would include:
1) Sardinians whom you feel descend from ancient non-IE speakers
2) Basques speaking Euskara
3) Bagvalals speaking Caucasian
4) Aragonenses and Catalonians whom you feel descend from ancient non-IE Iberians

Very good. That's gives a good list to evaluate.  Let me know if I misunderstand something about this "current pattern." I'm not strong on linguistics matters, but hopefully others will add comments while I try to brush up a bit.


1)I think it is safe to assume that the R1b-M269 in Sardinians is pre-Roman, due to the fact that the external influences in Sardinians came from sources that weren’t rich on R1b-M269. So a good question is why Sardinians that were pre-IndoEuropean speaking have high R1b-M269. They are also high on I-M26, and have moderate frequencies of G2a.
I’m trying to find something that would harmonize the linguistic distribution found in R1b-L23+ bearers, of course, some language might have come from other haplogroups.  But it is clear to me, that some R1b-L23+ was IE speaking, and some wasn’t IE speaking.  


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 29, 2012, 02:24:03 PM

... Why is it that most G2a in Europe today gets TMRCA that is about 2 or 3 times lower than its known presence from aDNA, what should we expect for a haplogroup that got nearly annihilated in the Neolithic?  

Please explain the point about G2a (G-P15.)  I've read Dienekes make some kind of point on this too.  I may be looking at different TMRCA calculations for Hg G than you, but when I look at Marko Heinila's work, which is the only one I've seen with long haplotypes and tens of thousands of haplotypes, I don't see anything that looks out of place.

Heinila has G2a (G-P15) with an intraclade TMRCA of 11k ybp, but more importantly, the interclade TMRCA for G-P15 and G-M337 as 15k ybp. We can view the 15k ybp as a maximum age for either G-P15 or G-M337 with 11k ybp for G-P15 as approximate time of initial expansion.

For comparison purposes, Heinila has intraclade TMRCAs for R-M269 as 5.7k ybp, R-L23 as 5.7k ybp and R-L11 as 4.8k ybp.

Unfortunately there is not adequate* data for extant brother subclades for L23 and L11 so we can't calculate a valid interclade TMRCA. M269 (R1b1a2) does have a brother Heinila used, M73 (R1b1a1.) The interclade TMRCA for M269 and M73 is 15k ybp so that puts a kind of a maximum on M269's age.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/TMRCAs_for_major_Y_Hgs_by_Heinila_2011.html

Anyway, I just don't see anything that really looks out of place.


* Actually I see he only had a sample size of 16 for R-M73 so I wouldn't bet the world on that either.

You seem to have missed the “In Europe” part, so the dates you provided are for the overall haplogroup in and outside of Europe, whereas I’m only talking about inside of Europe.

Moreover, take a look here:

 http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10647.msg131171#msg131171 (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10647.msg131171#msg131171)

MarkJost calculated the TMRCA of the G2a data from Rootsi et al.2012, this is what he said:

Quote from: MarkJost
You mentioned the period of G2 but there is a huge amount of Caucasus HT's in the oldest P15  and P16 which would be Eneolithic/Bronze ages in Middle East: 4500 to 3300 BC? 1.5K back to founder suggests a very small, if any, growth but around 5K Ybp must have had substantial growth in the Caucasus after first 60 generations or so. After that a SNP mutation occurs on an average of every 11 generations or 275 years.
...

G-P15 Founder GA=   269   6,726
G-P16 GB coal=   208   5,208
G-P15 GA coal=   200   4,998
G-M285 GB coal=   171   4,275
G-P20 GB coal=   151   3,767
G-M406 GB coal=   143   3,575
G-M406 GB coal=   143   3,575
G-U1 GB coal=   126   3,150
R-L21 GB coal=   105   2,624
G-Page19 GB coal=   92   2,294
G-M527 GB coal=   89   2,235
G-L497 GB coal=   83   2,082
G-M485 GB coal=   82   2,038
G-L91 GB coal=   78   1,959
G-M377 GB coal=   70   1,758"

PS: G2a was found in Avellanar, Catalonia 7000 ybp. That is what I was referring to.

Okay, duly noted, we are talking about G2a "in Europe." I'm just trying to match up your statements so I can see them clearly.
Quote from: JeanL
Why is it that most G2a in Europe today gets TMRCA that is about 2 or 3 times lower than its known presence from aDNA
Quote from: JeanL
G2a was found in Avellanar, Catalonia7000 ybp
Quote from: MJost
G-P15 Founder GA=   269    6,726
Quote from: MJost
G-P15 GA coal=   200   4,998


Where does the "2 or 3 times lower" come into play?  I see Jost has 5.0k ybp (4,998) as a coalescence age but that is about 71% of the 7k ybp aDNA not 50% or 33%.  
Am I looking at the right comparison?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 29, 2012, 02:39:37 PM
Quote from: JeanL
Why is it that most G2a in Europe today gets TMRCA that is about 2 or 3 times lower than its known presence from aDNA
Quote from: JeanL
G2a was found in Avellanar, Catalonia7000 ybp
Quote from: MJost
G-P15 Founder GA=   269    6,726
Quote from: MJost
G-P15 GA coal=   200   4,998


Where does the "2 or 3 times lower" come into play?  I see Jost has 5.0k ybp (4,998) as a coalescence age but that is about 71% of the 7k ybp aDNA not 50% or 33%. 
Am I looking at the right comparison?


Jost data is of the whole dataset, not just Europe, the variance of G-P15+ is 0.4239 for Europe (n=189) using 16 STR from Rootsi.et.al.2012. I would have to calculate the TMRCA.



Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 29, 2012, 02:44:16 PM
....If I may, I would summarize the "current pattern" that drives your interpretation as...

Several R1b significant populations are non-IE speaking. They would include:
1) Sardinians whom you feel descend from ancient non-IE speakers
....

1)I think it is safe to assume that the R1b-M269 in Sardinians is pre-Roman, due to the fact that the external influences in Sardinians came from sources that weren’t rich on R1b-M269. So a good question is why Sardinians that were pre-IndoEuropean speaking have high R1b-M269. They are also high on I-M26, and have moderate frequencies of G2a.

I’m trying to find something that would harmonize the linguistic distribution found in R1b-L23+ bearers, of course, some language might have come from other haplogroups.  But it is clear to me, that some R1b-L23+ was IE speaking, and some wasn’t IE speaking.  

You ask "So a good question is why Sardinians that were pre-IndoEuropean speaking have high R1b-M269".  Why do you ask that that?  Are you assuming pre-Roman R-M269 must be non-IE? I'm not that familiar with Sardinian history? Were they for sure non-IE speaking?

We don't really know what Bell Beakers and Urnfielders spoke but they have some cultural affinities to IE traditions.
"U152 - Bell Beakers and Urnfield Tradition in Italy" by Richard Rocca.
Quote from: Rocca
Bell Beaker sites and U152 are uncommon on the Adriatic coast. Both are more common in Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily than on the southern peninsula. It can be inferred from older R1b studies from Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily that U152 is also similarly distributed in a north and/or western pattern in those islands
....
Early Bell Beakers are thought to have reached Italy from coastal France. These earlier Bell Beakers are thought to have traveled from Tuscany to Sardinia, and from north-western Sardinia to south-western Corsica
http://www.u152.org/


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 29, 2012, 03:04:55 PM
Quote from: JeanL
Why is it that most G2a in Europe today gets TMRCA that is about 2 or 3 times lower than its known presence from aDNA
Quote from: JeanL
G2a was found in Avellanar, Catalonia7000 ybp
Quote from: MJost
G-P15 Founder GA=   269    6,726
Quote from: MJost
G-P15 GA coal=   200   4,998


Where does the "2 or 3 times lower" come into play?  I see Jost has 5.0k ybp (4,998) as a coalescence age but that is about 71% of the 7k ybp aDNA not 50% or 33%.  
Am I looking at the right comparison?

Jost data is of the whole dataset, not just Europe, the variance of G-P15+ is 0.4239 for Europe (n=189) using 16 STR from Rootsi.et.al.2012. I would have to calculate the TMRCA.

Are you looking at the same data that I am?
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg201286s1.html

I see only 43 G-P15 haplotypes for all of Europe in Rootsi's "Supplementary Table 1. Haplogroup G and its sub-clades frequency %"
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg201286s1.html

MJost was only using 15 STRs. I think that is too few to conclude much. There are only 9 G-P15 people in Rootsi Table from Iberia which is where the aDNA is from.

TMRCAs for a geography are a precarious undertaking, as RMS has noted in the discussion about diversity for R1b in North America.  We don't know that the people in a particular haplogrup in a particular location have a common ancestor from that location or, particularly given these small samples, they are representative of the location.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 29, 2012, 03:50:22 PM
Pre-Roman non-IE speaking Sardinians are probably a good argument against a non-IE/R1b link. Modern Sardinians are overwhelmingly I-M26:

Pardo et al (2012):
I-M26 = 42.31%
M269 = 15.00%

Contu et al (2008):
I-M26 = 37.0%
M269 = 17.00%

Sardinian M269 is heavily AMH and the majority of it is U152. M269 is found heaviest in Bell Beaker areas, whereas I-M26 is found in non-Bell Beaker areas (Center-East).

Outside of what looks like the product of a small sample from Castile Spain (19% of 21 samples), the next highest I-M26 frequency is from Zuberoa Basques (17%). As a whole, French Basques are also high (9%). In the recent Martinez-Cruz paper, they went out of their way to mention the importance of I-M26 in Basques:

"Besides the high frequency of R1b1b2-M269 and its sub-haplogroups, the frequency of the haplogroup I2a1-M26 is noteworthy, and is consistent with what has been reported for other regions in Spain. I2a1-M26 is present at high frequencies in Sardinia (35-37%) but is very rare in other western European populations and even absent in the rest of Europe."

If I had to guess on some early non-IE speaking Sardinian-Iberian-Aquitani tribe continuum marker, it would be I-M26.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 29, 2012, 04:00:25 PM
Are you looking at the same data that I am?
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg201286s1.html

I see only 43 G-P15 haplotypes for all of Europe in Rootsi's "Supplementary Table 1. Haplogroup G and its sub-clades frequency %"
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg201286s1.html

MJost was only using 15 STRs. I think that is too few to conclude much. There are only 9 G-P15 people in Rootsi Table from Iberia which is where the aDNA is from.

Sure we are, because it isn’t G-P15, but G-P15+(So anything downstream of G-P15, including G-P15*).


TMRCAs for a geography are a precarious undertaking, as RMS has noted in the discussion about diversity for R1b in North America.  We don't know that the people in a particular haplogrup in a particular location have a common ancestor from that location or, particularly given these small samples, they are representative of the location.

Well those concerns would pretty much apply to any haplogroup, so I don’t see why we would need to bring them up?  If think that European data collected in European subjects for Academic studies randomly, it is as good as it gets. Do you think all R1b present in Anatolia was there 2000 ybp, or could some have gotten there during the historical era?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 29, 2012, 04:23:18 PM
Are you looking at the same data that I am?
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg201286s1.html

I see only 43 G-P15 haplotypes for all of Europe in Rootsi's "Supplementary Table 1. Haplogroup G and its sub-clades frequency %"
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg201286s1.html

MJost was only using 15 STRs. I think that is too few to conclude much. There are only 9 G-P15 people in Rootsi Table from Iberia which is where the aDNA is from.

Sure we are, because it isn’t G-P15, but G-P15+(So anything downstream of G-P15, including G-P15*)....

Okay, where does the "2 or 3 times lower" come into play if it wasn't MJost's calculations you were comparing to aDNA.  I'm just trying to follow your reasoning.  You are one who made these statements.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 29, 2012, 04:25:23 PM
If I had to guess on some early non-IE speaking Sardinian-Iberian-Aquitani tribe continuum marker, it would be I-M26.
About a possible link of Sardinian with Basque (Caucasian) I have written something also recently (thiligugu/čori-GAGA) and Alfredo Trombetti thought that Etruscan was intermediate between Caucasian and Indo-European. This to say that ancient Italy could get a Caucasian language (Sardinian/Corsican), an intermediate language Etruscan-Rhaetian-Camun and an Indo-European one (centum version Italic-Celt-Germanic, the most ancient IE: satem languages are more recent and presuppose the centum ones). We were in Mesolithic and there were little peoples and Italy, even though little, was almost great for them.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Humanist on May 29, 2012, 04:27:15 PM
TMRCAs for a geography are a precarious undertaking, as RMS has noted in the discussion about diversity for R1b in North America.  We don't know that the people in a particular haplogrup in a particular location have a common ancestor from that location or, particularly given these small samples, they are representative of the location.

Well those concerns would pretty much apply to any haplogroup, so I don’t see why we would need to bring them up?  If think that European data collected in European subjects for Academic studies randomly, it is as good as it gets. Do you think all R1b present in Anatolia was there 2000 ybp, or could some have gotten there during the historical era?

It is certainly possible some lines entered during the historical era, but if they did, they did not survive the farther east one travels.  I would look for such lines, if they still exist, along the coast of the Levant.

In the ME and Anatolia (excluding Persia), without fail, the highest frequencies of R-M269 are observed among the minority populations (from those sampled).  Most of these populations had lived as dhimmis* for the better part of the last two millennia.  Plus, most populations have very low levels of R1a1, very low or undetected I1/I2, and very low or undetected (if we use Dodecad K12b) "North European."


*
Quote
The Status of Non-Muslim Minorities Under Islamic Rule

Dhimmitude: the Islamic system of governing populations conquered by jihad wars, encompassing all of the demographic, ethnic, and religious aspects of the political system. The word "dhimmitude" as a historical concept, was coined by Bat Ye'or in 1983 to describe the legal and social conditions of Jews and Christians subjected to Islamic rule. The word "dhimmitude" comes from dhimmi, an Arabic word meaning "protected". Dhimmi was the name applied by the Arab-Muslim conquerors to indigenous non-Muslim populations who surrendered by a treaty (dhimma) to Muslim domination. Islamic conquests expanded over vast territories in Africa, Europe and Asia, for over a millennium (638-1683). The Muslim empire incorporated numerous varied peoples which had their own religion, culture, language and civilization. For centuries, these indigenous, pre-Islamic peoples constituted the great majority of the population of the Islamic lands. Although these populations differed, they were ruled by the same type of laws, based on the shari'a.

Bat Ye'or


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 29, 2012, 04:28:38 PM
Okay, where does the "2 or 3 times lower" come into play if it wasn't MJost's calculations you were comparing to aDNA.  I'm just trying to follow your reasoning.  You are one who made these statements.
I have written tons of letters about this.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 29, 2012, 04:30:39 PM
TMRCAs for a geography are a precarious undertaking, as RMS has noted in the discussion about diversity for R1b in North America.  We don't know that the people in a particular haplogrup in a particular location have a common ancestor from that location or, particularly given these small samples, they are representative of the location.

Well those concerns would pretty much apply to any haplogroup, so I don’t see why we would need to bring them up?  If think that European data collected in European subjects for Academic studies randomly, it is as good as it gets. Do you think all R1b present in Anatolia was there 2000 ybp, or could some have gotten there during the historical era?

The concerns are real, that's why I bring them up. We shouldn't ignore them just because they apply across the board.  I'm still not sure where you calculated the young G-P15 age, but of what I've seen, the data is very limited.

I would contrast that to some data sets.  For instance, I think Marko Heinila had somewhere around 14,0000 haplotypes in some of his R-M269 TMRCA calculations.  Now we are talking significant amounts of daa, and not with just 15 STRs.  

Statistics are valuable, but they must be taken in context of each other, other evidence and the potential accuracy (or lack of it) due to limited data samples.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 29, 2012, 04:39:22 PM
Sardinian M269 is heavily AMH and the majority of it is U152. M269 is found heaviest in Bell Beaker areas, whereas I-M26 is found in non-Bell Beaker areas (Center-East).

You got any proof for that? Meaning do you have frequency distributions for places that are known to be Beaker in the past vs.non-Beaker areas.

Outside of what looks like the product of a small sample from Castile Spain (19% of 21 samples), the next highest I-M26 frequency is from Zuberoa Basques (17%). As a whole, French Basques are also high (9%).

[...]

If I had to guess on some early non-IE speaking Sardinian-Iberian-Aquitani tribe continuum marker, it would be I-M26.

Per Martinez-Cruz et  al(2012) I-M26 is found as follows:

Lapurdi/Nafarroa Beherea ZMX (n=44) Table S4

I-M26  3/44 or 6.82%

Nafarroa Beherea NLA (n=66) Table S4

I-M26  8/66 or 12.12%

Zuberoa SOU (n=53) Table S4

I-M26     9/53 or 16.98%

Roncal, Nafarroa  RON (n=53) Table S4

I-M26    2/53 or 3.77%

Central/Western Nafarroa  NCO (n=60) Table S4

I-M26 3/60 or 5%

North/Western Nafarroa  NNO (n=51) Table S4

I-M26     4/51 7.84%

Guipuscoa GUI (n=47) Table S4

I-M26     2/47 or 4.26%

Southwestern Guipuscoa GSO (n=57) Table S4

I-M26     2/57 or 3.51%

Alava, ALA (n=51) Table S4

I-M26    2/51 or 3.92%

Bizkaia BBA (n=57) Table S4

I-M26     1/57 or 1.75%

Western Bizkaia BOC(n=19) Table S4

I-M26     1/19 or 10.53%

There is also this:

http://www.plosone.org/article/slideshow.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419&imageURI=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419.t001 (http://www.plosone.org/article/slideshow.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419&imageURI=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419.t001)

Which shows that R1b-M269 has the highest variance in Sardinia, followed by G-M201, followed by I-M26, followed by E-M78.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 29, 2012, 04:54:13 PM
Okay, where does the "2 or 3 times lower" come into play if it wasn't MJost's calculations you were comparing to aDNA.  I'm just trying to follow your reasoning.  You are one who made these statements.


It comes from Ötzi being G2a4 or G-L91, and the TMRCA of G-L91 being 1959 ybp per Mark Jost calculations, sample size of 47 haplotypes, when the Iceman lived 5300 years ago. 5300/1959= 2.70 times more.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 29, 2012, 05:01:44 PM
Different Sardinian studies (there are a handful of them) have tested in different areas of the island and some differ slightly, but when you take all of them together you get a pattern that looks like the following:

I-M26 in the Center and East
M269 in the west and the south
G in the far north (Closest to S. Corsica where G is most prevalent)

Not surprisingly, the only two Sardinian samples in the FTDNA Italy project are both found in the western part of the island and they are both U152+.
 
Considering how rare I-M26 is outside of Sardinia, those Martinez-Cruz numbers (that average out to roughly 7%) are extremely high.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: David Mc on May 29, 2012, 07:29:36 PM
First time post.

JeanL, Looking at the history of Sardinia, it had some impact from the Bell Beaker culture, and it was occupied by the Romans, the Italians, and the Spanish (specifically Aragon). Unless I am mistaken, M269 is present in all of these populations. Why assume that Sardinian M269 predates the influx of these varied populations?


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 29, 2012, 08:52:04 PM
Pre-Roman non-IE speaking Sardinians are probably a good argument against a non-IE/R1b link. Modern Sardinians are overwhelmingly I-M26:

Pardo et al (2012):
I-M26 = 42.31%
M269 = 15.00%

Contu et al (2008):
I-M26 = 37.0%
M269 = 17.00%

Sardinian M269 is heavily AMH and the majority of it is U152. M269 is found heaviest in Bell Beaker areas, whereas I-M26 is found in non-Bell Beaker areas (Center-East).

Outside of what looks like the product of a small sample from Castile Spain (19% of 21 samples), the next highest I-M26 frequency is from Zuberoa Basques (17%). As a whole, French Basques are also high (9%). In the recent Martinez-Cruz paper, they went out of their way to mention the importance of I-M26 in Basques:

"Besides the high frequency of R1b1b2-M269 and its sub-haplogroups, the frequency of the haplogroup I2a1-M26 is noteworthy, and is consistent with what has been reported for other regions in Spain. I2a1-M26 is present at high frequencies in Sardinia (35-37%) but is very rare in other western European populations and even absent in the rest of Europe."

If I had to guess on some early non-IE speaking Sardinian-Iberian-Aquitani tribe continuum marker, it would be I-M26.

I have been suggesting that since 2006.

I think it's possible I-M26 was once much more commonplace than it is now and has experienced a decline over the last several millennia.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: rms2 on May 29, 2012, 09:09:18 PM
The level of R-M269 among the Bagvalals is interesting. Wikipedia, not always the best source, but generally reliable for non-controversial stuff, says they are an Avar people. There were about 6,500 speakers of Bagvalal as of 2006, according to this article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagvalal_language).

So, we're not talking about a large ethnic group.

It seems to me that by far G2a is the most common y haplogroup among speakers of Caucasian languages. My guess is that, in the Caucasus, Caucasian languages can be attributed to G2a, if they are to be attributed to a y haplogroup at all. Where R1a and R1b occur among Caucasian speakers, they represent non-Caucasian peoples who have been assimilated and who at some point learned to speak a Caucasian language.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 29, 2012, 10:21:38 PM
First time post.

JeanL, Looking at the history of Sardinia, it had some impact from the Bell Beaker culture, and it was occupied by the Romans, the Italians, and the Spanish (specifically Aragon). Unless I am mistaken, M269 is present in all of these populations. Why assume that Sardinian M269 predates the influx of these varied populations?

Well, I was always under the assumption that Sardinians being the closest modern folks to Oetzi in terms of their autosomal DNA that they could at least be assumed to show continuity since circa 5000 ybp. There is also the fact that Romans would have a lower proportion of R1b, so any contribution from the Romans would come along with contributions of different haplogroups. Northern Italians, and Aragonenses contributing R1b-M269 to Sardinia is definitely a possibility as both populations have higher fractions of R1b-M269, however a Northern Italian source is likely over an Iberian source due to the high proportion of R1b-U152 in Sardinia, plus the whole similarity issues with Oetzi, who is a Northern Italian.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 29, 2012, 10:28:31 PM

I have been suggesting that since 2006.

I think it's possible I-M26 was once much more commonplace than it is now and has experienced a decline over the last several millennia.

It is very likely that I-P37.2+ tagged along G2a during the Neolithic colonization of Europe.

As for I-M26, I would say that according to the Morelli.et.al.2010 study one can see from Table-1 that the diversity of R1b-M269 is higher in Sardinia than that of I-M26, whereas G-M207 is inbetween R1b-M269 and I-M26.


http://www.plosone.org/article/slideshow.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419&imageURI=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419.t001 (http://www.plosone.org/article/slideshow.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419&imageURI=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419.t001)

Also according to the study by Lopez-Parra.et.al.2009, the diversity of R1b-M153 and R1b-SRY2627 with respect to I-M26 in the Pyrenees was studied, it turns out that they are in fact only slightly younger.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18803634 (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18803634)

This is what they said about the mutation rate

Quote from: Lopez-Parra.et.al.2009
Time-to-most-recent-common-ancestor (TMRCA) was estimated within Network from the ρ-statistic, using an average mutation rate per Y-STR locus at 6.9 × 10−4 per generation of 25 years (Zhivotovsky et al. 2004).

So I reversed the TMRCA reported by them in Figure-3 to get the mean variance per haplogroup.

R1b-M153(n=19) var=0.23322+-0.07452

R1b-SRY2627(n=30) var=0.20355+-0.04071

I-M26 (n=13) var=0.32844+-0.11109

This was only done for Pyrenan populations, so it is not valid for comparison of the overall TMRCA of R1b-SRY2627 vs. R1b-M153.

The point here being, that R1b-M153 is on average about 0.71 as old as I-M26 in the Pyrenees.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 30, 2012, 11:49:32 AM
Okay, where does the "2 or 3 times lower" come into play if it wasn't MJost's calculations you were comparing to aDNA.  I'm just trying to follow your reasoning.  You are one who made these statements.
I have written tons of letters about this.
Do you speak for JeanL?  For all I know you are putting up a straw man proposal with very limited data so that you can knock it down.   I don't care, I just wanted to see if the statement has a direct comparison made with valid consistent methodologies.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 30, 2012, 12:11:32 PM

I have been suggesting that since 2006.

I think it's possible I-M26 was once much more commonplace than it is now and has experienced a decline over the last several millennia.

It is very likely that I-P37.2+ tagged along G2a during the Neolithic colonization of Europe.

As for I-M26, I would say that according to the Morelli.et.al.2010 study one can see from Table-1 that the diversity of R1b-M269 is higher in Sardinia than that of I-M26, whereas G-M207 is inbetween R1b-M269 and I-M26.


http://www.plosone.org/article/slideshow.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419&imageURI=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419.t001 (http://www.plosone.org/article/slideshow.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419&imageURI=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0010419.t001)

Also according to the study by Lopez-Parra.et.al.2009, the diversity of R1b-M153 and R1b-SRY2627 with respect to I-M26 in the Pyrenees was studied, it turns out that they are in fact only slightly younger.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18803634 (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18803634)

This is what they said about the mutation rate

Quote from: Lopez-Parra.et.al.2009
Time-to-most-recent-common-ancestor (TMRCA) was estimated within Network from the ρ-statistic, using an average mutation rate per Y-STR locus at 6.9 × 10−4 per generation of 25 years (Zhivotovsky et al. 2004).

So I reversed the TMRCA reported by them in Figure-3 to get the mean variance per haplogroup.

R1b-M153(n=19) var=0.23322+-0.07452

R1b-SRY2627(n=30) var=0.20355+-0.04071

I-M26 (n=13) var=0.32844+-0.11109

This was only done for Pyrenan populations, so it is not valid for comparison of the overall TMRCA of R1b-SRY2627 vs. R1b-M153.

The point here being, that R1b-M153 is on average about 0.71 as old as I-M26 in the Pyrenees.

Unfortunately I don't know the breakdown of each group, but variance calculations of such high level SNPs should be handled with caution. For example, Sardinian G2a-L91 and I-M26 each look to be the result of single migratory events based on their rarity outside of the island (and Corsica for L91). M269 could be made up of L23*, DF27 and U152 and therefore different migrations possibly spanning thousands of years. Without a doubt this would drive up the age of M269 compared to G2a and I-M26. Hopefully future testing will give us better clarity.

As for M153 being 29% younger than I-M26, that could still be the difference of over a thousand years.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 30, 2012, 12:26:25 PM
Do you speak for JeanL?  For all I know you are putting up a straw man proposal with very limited data so that you can knock it down.   I don't care, I just wanted to see if the statement has a direct comparison made with valid consistent methodologies.

I speak for me, and I haven’t had much feeling with Basques, beginning from Maju, but everybody, also a troll, would have seen that

G-L91 GB coal=   78   1,959

is in contrast with Ötzi (at least 5300YBP).


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: JeanL on May 30, 2012, 12:27:54 PM
As for M153 being 29% younger than I-M26, that could still be the difference of over a thousand years.

Well R1b-M153 diversity places it very recently using Germ line mutation rates, and by far less than 0.7 of the diversity of R-P312, I don't recall the numbers but I know Mike has them.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 30, 2012, 12:43:50 PM
As for M153 being 29% younger than I-M26, that could still be the difference of over a thousand years.

Well R1b-M153 diversity places it very recently using Germ line mutation rates, and by far less than 0.7 of the diversity of R-P312, I don't recall the numbers but I know Mike has them.

That makes even more sense to me, given its STR signature and how many levels removed it is from P312.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: intrestedinhistory on May 30, 2012, 01:42:16 PM
The level of R-M269 among the Bagvalals is interesting. Wikipedia, not always the best source, but generally reliable for non-controversial stuff, says they are an Avar people. There were about 6,500 speakers of Bagvalal as of 2006, according to this article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagvalal_language).

So, we're not talking about a large ethnic group.

It seems to me that by far G2a is the most common y haplogroup among speakers of Caucasian languages. My guess is that, in the Caucasus, Caucasian languages can be attributed to G2a, if they are to be attributed to a y haplogroup at all. Where R1a and R1b occur among Caucasian speakers, they represent non-Caucasian peoples who have been assimilated and who at some point learned to speak a Caucasian language.

I thought that J2a and J1* are the earliest lineages in the Caucasus with G being a later intrusive element along with R.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 30, 2012, 02:14:25 PM
.... Also according to the study by Lopez-Parra.et.al.2009, the diversity of R1b-M153 and R1b-SRY2627 with respect to I-M26 in the Pyrenees was studied, it turns out that they are in fact only slightly younger.
.....

So I reversed the TMRCA reported by them in Figure-3 to get the mean variance per haplogroup.

R1b-M153(n=19) var=0.23322+-0.07452

R1b-SRY2627(n=30) var=0.20355+-0.04071

I-M26 (n=13) var=0.32844+-0.11109

This was only done for Pyrenan populations, so it is not valid for comparison of the overall TMRCA of R1b-SRY2627 vs. R1b-M153.

The point here being, that R1b-M153 is on average about 0.71 as old as I-M26 in the Pyrenees.

I tend to see the difference between R-M153's .23322 and I-M26's .32844 as significant rather than slight. You could view M153's variance as 29% less than I-M26's or view I-M26's as 41% more than M153's.

I am concerned about the numbers of STRs used but I am sure JeanL is using the best data available.




Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 30, 2012, 02:18:50 PM
As for M153 being 29% younger than I-M26, that could still be the difference of over a thousand years.

Well R1b-M153 diversity places it very recently using Germ line mutation rates, and by far less than 0.7 of the diversity of R-P312, I don't recall the numbers but I know Mike has them.

That makes even more sense to me, given its STR signature and how many levels removed it is from P312.

Yes, I won't display the numbers from the DNA projects unless you need them but M153's age (or at least its variance) appears to be about half of SRY2627's and P312 is a little older than SRY2627's.

This is off on a tanget a bit, but I'm implying that DF27, Z196 and SRY2627 occurred in relatively quick succession after P312. I think the same thing for U152 and L2... also L21 and DF13 appear to be in the same fast boat or wagon or whatever.

Of course, another way to look at this, Busby's, would be that P312's major subclades had multiple "localized" areas of origin. Since they expanded almost simultaneously and their modals are not far off WAMH, I vote for the fast expansion hypothesis instead. I would add U106 to the same boat or wagon.


Title: Re: So who were the first farmers in NW Europe?
Post by: Heber on May 30, 2012, 05:16:11 PM
As for M153 being 29% younger than I-M26, that could still be the difference of over a thousand years.

Well R1b-M153 diversity places it very recently using Germ line mutation rates, and by far less than 0.7 of the diversity of R-P312, I don't recall the numbers but I know Mike has them.

That makes even more sense to me, given its STR signature and how many levels removed it is from P312.

Yes, I won't display the numbers from the DNA projects unless you need them but M153's age (or at least its variance) appears to be about half of SRY2627's and P312 is a little older than SRY2627's.

This is off on a tanget a bit, but I'm implying that DF27, Z196 and SRY2627 occurred in relatively quick succession after P312. I think the same thing for U152 and L2... also L21 and DF13 appear to be in the same fast boat or wagon or whatever.

Of course, another way to look at this, Busby's, would be that P312's major subclades had multiple "localized" areas of origin. Since they expanded almost simultaneously and their modals are not far off WAMH, I vote for the fast expansion hypothesis instead. I would add U106 to the same boat or wagon.


Mike,

To calculate the time and effort of the trip by boat or wagon in ancient times you can use The Stanford Geospatial Network Model of the Roman World (ORBIS). The results are illuminating to say the least.
The maritime route wins hands down. As the Bell Beaker would not have benefited from the later Roman road network the conclusions are even more obvious.

http://orbis.stanford.edu/

"ORBIS: The Stanford Geospatial Network Model of the Roman World reconstructs the time cost and financial expense associated with a wide range of different types of travel in antiquity. The model is based on a simplified version of the giant network of cities, roads, rivers and sea lanes that framed movement across the Roman Empire. It broadly reflects conditions around 200 CE but also covers a few sites and roads created in late antiquity.
The model consists of 751 sites, most of them urban settlements but also including important promontories and mountain passes, and covers close to 10 million square kilometers (~4 million square miles) of terrestrial and maritime space. 268 sites serve as sea ports. The road network encompasses 84,631 kilometers (52,587 miles) of road or desert tracks, complemented by 28,272 kilometers (17,567 miles) of navigable rivers and canals.
Sea travel moves across a cost surface that simulates monthly wind conditions and takes account of strong currents and wave height. The model's maritime network consists of 900 sea routes (linking 450 pairs of sites in both directions), many of them documented in historical sources and supplemented by coastal short-range connections between all ports and a few mid-range routes that fill gaps in ancient coverage. Their total length, which varies monthly, averages 180,033 kilometers (111,864 miles). Sea travel is possible at two sailing speeds that reflect the likely range of navigational capabilities in the Roman period. Maritime travel is constrained by rough weather conditions (using wave height as proxy). 158 of the sea lanes are classified as open sea connections and can be disabled to restrict movement to coastal and other short-haul routes, a process that simulates the practice of cabotage as well as sailing in unfavorable weather. For each route the model generates two discrete outcomes for time and four for expense in any given month."