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Title: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 02, 2012, 12:09:40 PM
Here is my L51* (aka S167 and M412) frequency map based on Busby et al. (2011) data. 

(http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png)
Click here to see the larger map: http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png (http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png)

Looking at the map, several several things are clear:

1. L51* is every bit the European marker that L11* is. In fact, it seems like L51* is more exclusive to Western European than L11* is.
2. Unlike L11*, which has a few areas of high frequency at distances far apart from one another (England, Portugal, Germany), we can definitely see that L51* has its core area in central/southern France with a secondary area in northern Italy.
3. As with L11*, L51* is invisible in the Balkans.

The L51* core frequency areas match extremely well with the Middle Neolithic Chasseen-Lagozza Culture of France and Northern Italy. I still have a suspicion that Middle to Late Neolithic Y-DNA will turn up R1b.

I would like to quote some points from Myres et al. (2010) which were quickly dismissed by DNA hobbyists but now seem to carry much more weight:

"...there is evidence of several post-LBK Neolithic expansions, ca 6000 years BP from the Paris basin region toward Northern Italy, Southern France and Iberia, characterized by the Chasseen horizon, as well as to England.”

"...based on 757 M412 (aka L51) chromosomes, suggests that the M412 (aka L51) lineage evolved in Europe soon after the arrival of a L23* ancestor."

"...notable are the equivalent expansion times for all S116 (aka P312)...related lineages."

Just a reminder, the distribution of U152 is very similar to the distribution of L51* and U152 also has higher variance than L21, Z196 and U106. The highest variance for P312-“All” is SE France.

So, what do I make of all of this? The path of R1b into Western Europe was south of the Alps. Proto-Chasseen wares were inspired by those from Southern Italy, so I think Middle Neolithic L23* went up the Italic peninsula via the Tyrrhenian Coast.  Some place near the Franco-Italian border and close to the Ligurian Sea, the first carrier of L51* was born. This mutation would be carried by the Chasseen-Lagozza-Cortaillod Cultures and would produce L11 somewhere near central France. From there, all other branches would expand – U152 back to the Alps, DF27 to SW France and Iberia, and L21 from NW France into SW England. I recall that the earliest famers on the continent (LBK G2a?) did not make it to England but rather the Chasseen derived ones did. This may explain the free-hand L21 had in replacing the earlier British Isles population.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 02, 2012, 12:55:47 PM
Thanks, Richard.  Did you notice any STR patterns among L51* people? commonalities with WAMH?

As you known, I'm very interested in STR diversity clines, if they can be found. Our ht35 project has some anomalies in the modals through the different phylogenetic layers, as Maliclavelli has pointed out.

I glossed over those quotes in the studies as well. Thank you for bringing them up.

....
3. As with L11*, L51* is invisible in the Balkans.

The L51* core frequency areas match extremely well with the Middle Neolithic Chasseen-Lagozza Culture of France and Northern Italy. I still have a suspicion that Middle to Late Neolithic Y-DNA will turn up R1b.....

Maliclavelli, this should be right up your alley.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 02, 2012, 01:04:46 PM
Thanks, Richard.  Did you notice any STR patterns among L51* people? commonalities with WAMH?

As you known, I'm very interested in STR diversity clines, if they can be found. Our ht35 project has some anomalies in the modals through the different phylogenetic layers, as Maliclavelli has pointed out.

I glossed over those quotes in the studies as well. Thank you for bringing them up.


Yes, the obvious one is that in L51* samples, DYS426=13 instead of the WAMH value of 12.

Using Ken's Gen7, I get TMRCA of 2935 BC ± 475 for the living descendants of L51 which would put it in the latter part of the Chasseen time frame. Of course the date should be older when taking into account dead branches.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 02, 2012, 01:13:05 PM
Great work, Rich! But should I be glad that Mikewww let me become a Georgian (Macleveli)?
If you read a post of mine about the “Vasi a bocca quadrata” culture (in Italian), here I expressed some doubts that the Chassée culture from France has replaced that of the “Vasi a bocca quadrata”, certainly autochthonous of Italy, and with a military élite. Anyway I am here, R-L23/L150+, with my relatives R-M269* and above all my Mangino (actually the Tuscan Mancini) I think the first intermediate between R1b1* and R-M269*.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 02, 2012, 01:26:42 PM
Great work, Rich! But should I be glad that Mikewww let me become a Georgian (Macleveli)?
If you read a post of mine about the “Vasi a bocca quadrata” culture (in Italian), here I expressed some doubts that the Chassée culture from France has replaced that of the “Vasi a bocca quadrata”, certainly autochthonous of Italy, and with a military élite. Anyway I am here, R-L23/L150+, with my relatives R-M269* and above all my Mangino (actually the Tuscan Mancini) I think the first intermediate between R1b1* and R-M269*.


Thank you Gioiello. I did look into VBQ. However, after reading many books, and especially Borrello 1984, "The Lagozza Culture (3rd Millennium B. C.) in Northern and Central Italy", it seems clear that there is complete discontinuity between VBQ and Lagozza whereas Chasseen-Lagozza-Cortaillod seem to three local varieties of one single group.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 02, 2012, 01:47:20 PM
This could be the definitive explication of this phase, difficult to deny. Anyway it is still open the prehistory of this. You know that I have always supported that also an Italian  R1b1* (that with YCAII=18-22 and 18-23, found so far only in Italy) is the ancestor of R-M269* and R-L23* and that the Eastern one, with YCAII=21-23 and 23-23, is a paragroup, perhaps of that zone, perhaps come from Western Europe, which wasn’t the ancestor of our haplotypes. Other work to do. Otherwise we should demonstrate that R-L23 came from Middle East and was born there. But we should find other Manginos somewhere out of Tuscany and Italy.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jean M on May 02, 2012, 02:55:38 PM
I like it Richard. Up to a point! :)

I wouldn't be at all surprised to find some R1b-L51 in Late Neolithic Central Europe, since I suspect that R1b was travelling with dairy farmers. We shall see.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 02, 2012, 04:10:06 PM
Thanks, Richard.  Did you notice any STR patterns among L51* people? commonalities with WAMH?

As you known, I'm very interested in STR diversity clines, if they can be found. Our ht35 project has some anomalies in the modals through the different phylogenetic layers, as Maliclavelli has pointed out.

I glossed over those quotes in the studies as well. Thank you for bringing them up.


Yes, the obvious one is that in L51* samples, DYS426=13 instead of the WAMH value of 12.

Using Ken's Gen7, I get TMRCA of 2935 BC ± 475 for the living descendants of L51 which would put it in the latter part of the Chasseen time frame. Of course the date should be older when taking into account dead branches.

I was hoping you'd seem some geographic pattern, i.e. L51* in the west is 426=12 and in the east is 426=13.   The geographic pattern may be "counter" to a western birth for L11.  I'll explain later after I look through the R1bHt35 project* for updates.  Peter Hrechdakian put me on to this.  My guess is things will remain murky.  I clearly don't know what (where) happened between L23 and P312/U106.

* BTW, I found a couple of new L2 guys over there. Lost I guess.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 02, 2012, 05:42:41 PM
great map.  Strange patchy distribution outside the core area of SE France/NW Italy.  Still tend to think it has a vaguely beakerish feel to it, allowing for some moderated dispalcement over the last 4000 years or so.  However, its not obvious what the story is with that one.  I have no idea why the Ulster border area would have a small peak there.  Not an obvious entry point to Ireland from the south. 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: rms2 on May 02, 2012, 07:14:10 PM
Very well done.

Certainly seems reasonable.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 03, 2012, 12:12:12 AM
great map.  Strange patchy distribution outside the core area of SE France/NW Italy.  Still tend to think it has a vaguely beakerish feel to it, allowing for some moderated dispalcement over the last 4000 years or so.  However, its not obvious what the story is with that one.  I have no idea why the Ulster border area would have a small peak there.  Not an obvious entry point to Ireland from the south.  

Of course I  just woke up and must go to work, but when I was in bed I was thinking that my theory of the migration of the agriculturalists from the Arene Candide to Iberia 7500 years ago should be taken present yet. The presence in Iberia is just in Valencia region and Portugal where this migration happened. The other distribution presupposes other later migrations witch faded a possible presence of R-L51:
1)   Italy from Apulia to Central Italy where happened the migration from the Balkans (also the language was different: Illiric against Italic)
2)   South France where was the Greek colony of Massalia
3)   The place in Alsace and German Switzerland where happened the German migration after the fall of the Roman Empire etc etc.

Other places may testify more recent migration from Italy:
1)   10% of Belgian people is of recent Italian migration
2)   Also in France is difficult to separate ancient and recent migration from Italy: at least 7% of French population comes from Italy recently etc.

I have already spoken of the link with South Poland when I spoke firstly of the Italian Refugium. Yes, the presence in North Ireland is less explicable, but we could think to a colonization by sea and through a river. Of course this are events of thousands of years ago and we don’t know what. But the presence in Ireland of my L23 could be a sign.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 03, 2012, 08:03:42 AM
R1b begins to spring up in Europe:

“Ancient DNA analyses of human remains from the Late Neolithic Bell Beaker site of Kromsdorf, Germany showed distinct mitochondrial haplotypes for six individuals, which were classified under the haplogroups I1, K1, T1, U2, U5, and W5, and two males were identified as belonging to the Y haplogroup R1b”.

American Journal of Physical Anthropology DOI: 10.1002/ajpa.22074

Emerging genetic patterns of the european neolithic: Perspectives from a late neolithic bell beaker burial site in Germany†

Esther J. Lee et al.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 03, 2012, 08:15:38 AM
The paper isn't for free, but by the supllements it seems that the last SNP tested is M269. Then we don't know which subclade. Hope that the paper publishes some STR value.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Arwunbee on May 03, 2012, 09:05:15 AM
R1b begins to spring up in Europe:

“Ancient DNA analyses of human remains from the Late Neolithic Bell Beaker site of Kromsdorf, Germany showed distinct mitochondrial haplotypes for six individuals, which were classified under the haplogroups I1, K1, T1, U2, U5, and W5, and two males were identified as belonging to the Y haplogroup R1b”.

A nice bag of mixed mtDNA lollies.  

No STRS in this study.  They did test for U106 but both R1b samples were negative for it.  P312/S116 wasn't tested...

Grave 5: ydna R1b1b2 U106-, mtdna I1, 35-50yo, no grave goods, bone age n.d.
Grave 8: ydna R1b^, mtdna K1, 21-26yo, cup & flake grave goods, bones 2678-2547 BC  

^unable to obtain M269 result

Only three of the bodies had a radiocarbon age, latest given was 2511 BC.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Heber on May 03, 2012, 10:45:45 AM
great map.  Strange patchy distribution outside the core area of SE France/NW Italy.  Still tend to think it has a vaguely beakerish feel to it, allowing for some moderated dispalcement over the last 4000 years or so.  However, its not obvious what the story is with that one.  I have no idea why the Ulster border area would have a small peak there.  Not an obvious entry point to Ireland from the south.  

I agree, it is a great map. Could it indicate a migration across Northern Italy (Po Valley) and Up the Rhone Valley.
The epicentre appears to be The Puy des Domes or the source of the Loire adjacent to the confluence of the Loire and Rhone.
The western epicentre is the Tagus Valley, hotspot of Megalithism and Origin of the Bell Beakers culture and close proximity to Tartessos and Celtic from the West. The Ireland epicentre is the Erne River Valley and Lakes (Upper and Lower)  and supposed landing spot of the original Celtic settler, the Mythical Heber.:).


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: razyn on May 03, 2012, 11:18:02 AM
It's an interesting map, but I have some questions about what it is mapping.  Isn't it (a) a paragroup, L51* -- rather than the actual ancestral figure (the first bearer of the SNP, and his immediate family)?  And (b) don't the darker blue "epicentres" or hot spots depict current distribution -- as distinguished (when you are discussing almost anything else) from presumed places of origin of this paragroup?

I'm just having a hard time relating the map to the conclusions attributed to it, or assumed to be supported by it (since the said conclusions have antedated this map by some years).  It may be that the broad-brush data in the Myres and Busby studies will be confirmed by better data (based on much longer haplotypes, aDNA and so on).  But they haven't been, yet.  It may also be that the haplotypes currently classified as L51* will lose that asterisk, once some more downstream SNPs are discovered and tested.  That process seems pretty frequent, these days.

[edited to correct M51* to L51*]


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 03, 2012, 01:39:20 PM
It's an interesting map, but I have some questions about what it is mapping.  Isn't it (a) a paragroup, M51* -- rather than the actual ancestral figure (the first bearer of the SNP, and his immediate family)?  And (b) don't the darker blue "epicentres" or hot spots depict current distribution -- as distinguished (when you are discussing almost anything else) from presumed places of origin of this paragroup?

I'm just having a hard time relating the map to the conclusions attributed to it, or assumed to be supported by it (since the said conclusions have antedated this map by some years).  It may be that the broad-brush data in the Myres and Busby studies will be confirmed by better data (based on much longer haplotypes, aDNA and so on).  But they haven't been, yet.  It may also be that the haplotypes currently classified as M51* will lose that asterisk, once some more downstream SNPs are discovered and tested.  That process seems pretty frequent, these days.

These maps are really like the ink blots that shrink use - everyone sees something different.

You are right however, L51* (not M51)is a paragroup. However, even paragroups can give us clues to the overall big picture. Where there is diversity, even SNP diversity, there is age. Certainly SE France has that.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 03, 2012, 01:54:32 PM
Thanks, Richard.  Did you notice any STR patterns among L51* people? commonalities with WAMH?

As you known, I'm very interested in STR diversity clines, if they can be found. Our ht35 project has some anomalies in the modals through the different phylogenetic layers, as Maliclavelli has pointed out.

I glossed over those quotes in the studies as well. Thank you for bringing them up.


Yes, the obvious one is that in L51* samples, DYS426=13 instead of the WAMH value of 12.

Using Ken's Gen7, I get TMRCA of 2935 BC ± 475 for the living descendants of L51 which would put it in the latter part of the Chasseen time frame. Of course the date should be older when taking into account dead branches.

That is on the cusp of beaker and pre-beaker.  It certainly is interesting in that it indicates that R1b in the form of L51 seems to have taken off in a big way from the same area that P312 seem the oldest.  Of course distribution and frequency does not tell us origin but the patter looks like a starburst from the upper Rhone to me, perhaps very early in the beaker phase.  It may have been an element that still existed and perhaps was a fellow travellor with L11* and P312.  It could actually be a sort of proxy for early P312*. 

 This sort of suggests R1b was in western Europe in the form of L51 around the very start of the beaker period (if not older) and and probably indicates that P312 (and hence L11) then originated there too, perhaps in the same area of SE France.

This distribution is hard to look at without then looking at L23xL51 and wondering how and when the leap was made. I dont have an L23xL51 map handy though.  I recall it was Anatolia, Caususes and SE Europe.   


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 03, 2012, 03:18:56 PM
These are very broad numbers so this is just for an initial look. I used broad territories and groupsing just to just to get the numbers of haplotypes up.  I try to stay away from small groups and short haplotypes.  This is from our FTDNA projects, mostly the Ht35 project.

I'll rework this, but I just used the east/west divide as everything east of Germany, Austria, Cisalpine Gaul in the "east."  I included the Italian peninsula in the east, though, what I call the East Mediterranean. (EDIT: To be clear, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Scandinavia/Finland and N. Italy are in the "west" in my broad categories)

On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.50 [Linear 36]  (N=181)   
L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.53 [Mixed 49]  (N=181)   

L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)   

L23xL11 West________:  Var=0.97 [Linear 36]  (N=38)   
L23xL11 West________:  Var=1.13 [Mixed 49]  (N=38)   


We do have L51* folks identified, but I think they are more of a remnant subclade than a scattering.  Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just providing some information.  Will do more.  I need to look up some of the Ysearch IDs associated with the kits.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 03, 2012, 04:57:34 PM
These are very broad numbers so this is just for an initial look. I used broad territories and groupsing just to just to get the numbers of haplotypes up.  I try to stay away from small groups and short haplotypes.  This is from our FTDNA projects, mostly the Ht35 project.

I'll rework this, but I just used the east west divide as everything east of Germany, Austria, Cisalpine Gaul east.  I included the Italian peninsula in the east, though, what I call the East Mediterranean.

On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.50 [Linear 36]  (N=181)   
L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.53 [Mixed 49]  (N=181)   

L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)   

L23xL11 West________:  Var=0.97 [Linear 36]  (N=38)   
L23xL11 West________:  Var=1.13 [Mixed 49]  (N=38)   


We do have L51* folks identified, but I think they are more of a remnant subclade than a scattering.  Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just providing some information.  Will do more.  I need to look up some of the Ysearch IDs associated with the kits.

By remnant, I agree, they seem to have had success only in S. France and N Italy. Their offspring on the other-hand went in all directions. The fat that France is central to western Europe would explain the similar variance that Busby calculated.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 04, 2012, 10:10:47 AM
These are very broad numbers so this is just for an initial look. I used broad territories and groupsing just to just to get the numbers of haplotypes up.  I try to stay away from small groups and short haplotypes.  This is from our FTDNA projects, mostly the Ht35 project.

I'll rework this, but I just used the east/west divide as everything east of Germany, Austria, Cisalpine Gaul in the "east."  I included the Italian peninsula in the east, though, what I call the East Mediterranean. (EDIT: To be clear, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Scandinavia/Finland and N. Italy are in the "west" in my broad categories)

On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.50 [Linear 36]  (N=181)   
L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.53 [Mixed 49]  (N=181)   

L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)   

L23xL11 West________:  Var=0.97 [Linear 36]  (N=38)   
L23xL11 West________:  Var=1.13 [Mixed 49]  (N=38)   
...

Here is how what I call Southwest Asia fits in.  I don't really have long haplotypes from the Caucasus.  I tend to assume (which is a mistake) that the Caucasus would be similar to Anatolia and the north of Iran but I really don't know.

L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.73 [Mixed 49]  (N=96)   
L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.76 [Linear 36]  (N=96)


Here are the folks.  It doesn't look a British Empire, or Irish migrations from the Isles to me. (LOL)

f152972   Afrikyan   R-L23*   Armenia
fM6266   Al Gurg   R-L23*   United Arab Emirates
fM4000   Ali   R-L23*   United Arab Emirates
f186372   Amatuni   R-L23*   Armenia
f162059   Andonian   R-L23*   Turkey
f148828   Bador   R-L23*   Syria
f166327   Barkhordarian   R-L23*   Iran
f185782   Bedrossian   R-L23*   Turkey
f172797   Elchian   R-L23*   Armenia
f191401   Farage   R-L23*   Iraq
f82108   Galstyan   R-L23   Armenia
f147979   Hermes   R-L23   Iraq
f182302   Karapetian   R-L23*   Armenia
f164226   Kassabian   R-L23*   Turkey
fN76689   Khalil   R-L23*   Egypt
f159888   Kubatiev   R-L23**   Russia
f152880   Luguev   R-L23*   Russia
f188022   Manouchehri   R-L23*   Armenia
f149195   Mardakhanian   R-L23*   Turkey
f202985   Murad   R-L23*   Armenia
f185690   Papazian   R-L23*   Turkey
f182456   Papazian-Pehlivanian   R-L23*   Turkey
f172019   Pipilos   R-L23*   Turkey
f186395   Ruben   R-L23*   Russia
f181425   Samuelian   R-L23*   Turkey
fN74713   Tchekidjian   R-L23*   Turkey
f152977   Tersants   R-L23   Armenia
f162122   Vartian   R-L23*   Turkey
f184382   zzzUnkName   R-L23*   Armenia
f188757   zzzUnkName   R-L23*   Saudi Arabia
f164193   zzzUnkName   R-L23   Armenia
f176676   zzzUnkName   R-L23*   Armenia
f164223   zzzUnkName   R-L23   Armenia
f152976   Arghutian   R-L23*   Armenia
f149198   Atabekian   R-L23*   Armenia
fN93606   Irvan   R-L23*   Turkey
f155696   zzzUnkName   R-L23   Armenia
f152975   zzzUnkName   R-L23   Armenia
f149197   zzzUnkName   R-L23   Armenia
f184387   zzzUnkName   R-L23*   Armenia
f172963   zzzUnkName   R-L23*   Armenia
f174260   Melik-Barkhudaryan   R-L23*   Armenia
f164229   Aprahamian   R-L23*   Turkey
f174262   Beylerian   R-L23*   Turkey
fN91155   Hampian   R-L23*   Turkey
f176794   Hovannisian   R-L23*   Turkey
f128958   Abovyan   R-L23*   Armenia
f181273   Abrahamian   R-L23*   Iran
f185570   Kalantarian   R-L23*   Armenia
f149196   Melik-Yeganian   R-L23*   Armenia
f46468   Ozkubilay   R-L23/L51*   Turkey
f189873   Asbed   R-L23*   Turkey
f131176   Sahadi   R-L23*   Lebanon
f207694   zzzUnkName   R-L23*   Armenia
f184555   Bahlavouni   R-L23*   Turkey
f176679   Boyadjian   R-L23*   Turkey
f184158   Ketendjian   R-L23*   Turkey
f46561   Ketendjian   R-L23*   Armenia
f174245   Melik-Mirzaians   R-L23*   Iran
f155695   Melik-Parsadanyan   R-L23*   Armenia
f184611   Parsadanian   R-L23*   Armenia
fN71759   Anas   R-L23*   Turkey
fN53795   Karakashian   R-L23*   Armenia
f195750   Koundakjian   R-L23/L277   Armenia
f171777   Melik-Baghdassarian   R-L23*   Iran
f213878   Mezdo   R-L23/L277   Turkey
f185783   Selian   R-L23*   Turkey
f202070   Tanoli   R-L23**   Pakistan
f166332   Gulbenk   R-L23*   Armenia
f167776   Markarian   R-L23*   Turkey
f164199   Melik-Adamyan   R-L23*   Armenia
f184026   Al Enezi   R-L23**   Iraq
fN83705   Al Enezi   R-L23**   Iraq
f164210   D'Atabekian   R-L23*   Armenia
f170031   Mangassarian   R-L23*   Armenia
f90492   Barkho   R-L23/L584   Turkey
f166322   Paboudjian   R-L23/L584   Turkey
f183824   Safarian   R-L23/L584   Iran
f178932   Tastan   R-L23/L584   Turkey
f195789   Guloomian   R-L23/L584   Armenia
f182984   Kurdi   R-L23/L584   Armenia
f191405   Philibossian   R-L23/L584   Turkey
f187550   Hablanian   R-L23/L584   Turkey
f166323   Tachjian   R-L23/L584   Turkey
f164200   zzzUnkName   R-L23/L584   Armenia
f184027   Gorgis   R-L23/L584   Iraq
f152974   zzzUnkName   R-L23/L584   Armenia
f168729   Ades   R-L23/L584   Syria
f70052   Ades   R-L23/L584   Syria
f205749   Al-Jeloo   R-L23/L584   Iraq
f213562   David   R-L23/L584   Iraq
f164219   Sinanian   R-L23*   Turkey
f215158   Tavitian   R-L23*   Turkey
fM4014   Saeed   R-L23*   zzCountry
f184381   Melik-Matevosian   R-L23*   Armenia
f222572   Makin   R-L23*   Iran


What do you think?  Have you noticed that our "West" R-L23xL11 numbers are the lowest.... and I'll say the word "significantly" so.  Even though testing penetration is very heavily biased towards Western Europe, our DNA project just don't have that many R-L23xL11 folks.

SW Asia is the oldest - significantly, I think.   However, we should be very cautious.  I don't know if there is a Galatian (SE Europe to Anatolia) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galatia) possibility in all of this.  Also, The R-L23 xL11 groups above are really a mix of to be determined subclades. We need to peel onion back on them more as they are only a paragroup.  On the other hand, if they are really a series of to be discovered subclades then that implies very high haplogroup diversity.   This is still diversity, be it STRs or high level (old) SNPs.  Higher diversity in a location might be an indicator of age, when you consider everything in context.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 04, 2012, 12:22:43 PM
Mikewww writes: “Here are the folks.  It doesn't look a British Empire, or Irish migrations from the Isles to me. (LOL)”

Perhaps you don’t read my posts, perhaps for my bad English, or, if you read them, you  certainly forget them soon. Those people, apart those L584+ who should be excluded because belong to another subclade, are pretty all Armenians, and we should ask ourselves where all these Armenians come from. They probably came from the Balkans and that there were many R-L23 in the Balkans before the separation of Indo-Europeans isn’t strange. This doesn’t exclude that they descend all from the Italian Refugium. Certainly they don’t descend from the Eastern R1b1* with YCAII=21-23 or 23-23, but from the Italian one with YCAII=18-22 or 18-23.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 04, 2012, 12:42:14 PM
Mikewww writes: “Here are the folks.  It doesn't look a British Empire, or Irish migrations from the Isles to me. (LOL)”

Perhaps you don’t read my posts, perhaps for my bad English, or, if you read them, you  certainly forget them soon. Those people, apart those L584+ who should be excluded because belong to another subclade, are pretty all Armenians, and we should ask ourselves where all these Armenians come from. They probably came from the Balkans and that there were many R-L23 in the Balkans before the separation of Indo-Europeans isn’t strange. This doesn’t exclude that they descend all from the Italian Refugium. Certainly they don’t descend from the Eastern R1b1* with YCAII=21-23 or 23-23, but from the Italian one with YCAII=18-22 or 18-23.


Perhaps my posts aren't clear. I think that the Balkan Peninsula is a part of SE Europe. I'm not saying the Galatians is the only alternative, by the way, just an example.
....
SW Asia is the oldest - significantly, I think.   However, we should be very cautious.  I don't know if there is a Galatian (SE Europe to Anatolia) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galatia) possibility in all of this.  Also, The R-L23 xL11 groups above are really a mix of to be determined subclades. We need to peel onion back on them more as they are only a paragroup.  On the other hand, if they are really a series of to be discovered subclades then that implies very high haplogroup diversity.   This is still diversity, be it STRs or high level (old) SNPs.  Higher diversity in a location might be an indicator of age, when you consider everything in context.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 04, 2012, 01:13:06 PM
... On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.50 [Linear 36]  (N=181)   
L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.53 [Mixed 49]  (N=181)   

L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)   

L23xL11 West________:  Var=0.97 [Linear 36]  (N=38)   
L23xL11 West________:  Var=1.13 [Mixed 49]  (N=38)   


We do have L51* folks identified, but I think they are more of a remnant subclade than a scattering.  Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just providing some information.  Will do more.  I need to look up some of the Ysearch IDs associated with the kits.

By remnant, I agree, they seem to have had success only in S. France and N Italy. Their offspring on the other-hand went in all directions. The fat that France is central to western Europe would explain the similar variance that Busby calculated.

Here is the quandry on L51*. First of all, I can't find that many of them, let alone with long haplotypes. I only have 17 with 67 STRs or more so I display with caution. I don't think this is conclusive by any means.

As you can see, L51xL11 is more along the STR diversities (potentially ages) of the large L11 subclades.  Not really older than P312 or U152.   We know that L51 happened before L11 (and P312, etc.) but the subclades around today don't look that old.

R-L51xL11___________:  Var=1.09 [Linear 36]  (N=17)
R-L51xL11___________:  Var=1.16 [Mixed 49]  (N=17)


Below is a list of all 26 L51* confirmed people I can find.  You'll see that most of them fit into the varieties "m23-1313-51-A" and "m23-1313-51-B".  They have enough common off-modal markers that I think they are subclades (with to be discovered SNPs) in their own rights.

The second part of the quandry is all of the L51* people in our DNA projects that I've found are 426=13.  All of them. It is not just the modal, it's everything and we know that 426 is very slow. Does anyone know of any 426=12 people?  Are there any in the studies?  A few 426=11 L51* people would be especially important, I think.

A third part of the quandry is, geographically, the group is very scattered - Spain to Iberia to Poland to Yemen.  How do you like that spread?  RRocca has done a nice job of showing there is a frequency affinity to SE France and NW Italy, though.

The two digit numbers to the right of the countries are the GDs at 67 to the L51* modal. The maximum GD is 21, which is not that high relative to P312 or U106 or even L21.

f80593   Abrams   R-L23/L51*   Poland   17   m23-1313-51 *
fM5032   Al Yafie   R-L23/L51*   Yemen   xx   m23-1313-51 *
f111988   Collins   R-L23/L51*   zzCountry   16   m23-1313-51 *
f134706   Collins   R-L23/L51*   Ireland   18   m23-1313-51 *
fE5620   Di Abondantio   R-L23/L51*   Italy   xx   m23-1313-51 *
f148406   Finney   R-L23/L51*   Ireland   14   m23-1313-51 *
f105470   Fogle   R-L23/L51*   Germany   xx   m23-1313-51 *
f197645   Jönsson   R-L23/L51*   Sweden   xx   m23-1313-51 *
fN60919   Lyons   R-L23/L51*   zzCountry   xx   m23-1313-51 *
f46468   Ozkubilay   R-L23/L51*   Turkey   20   m23-1313-51 *
f181881   Romero   R-L23/L51*   Spain   xx   m23-1313-51 *
fE2689   Alvarez   R-L23/L51*   Spain   15   m23-1313-51-A
f97317   Eagleton   R-L23/L51*   Scotland   20   m23-1313-51-A
f132478   Greenlaw   R-L23/L51*   Scotland   21   m23-1313-51-A
f41519   Hooks   R-L23/L51*   zzCountry   18   m23-1313-51-A
f86538   Hooks   R-L23/L51*   zzCountry   18   m23-1313-51-A
f67450   Malysz   R-L23/L51*   zzCountry   17   m23-1313-51-A
f80001   Przewlocki   R-L23/L51*   Poland   13   m23-1313-51-A
fN5273   Russo   R-L23/L51*   Italy   16   m23-1313-51-A
f50168   Soric   R-L23/L51*   Croatia   18   m23-1313-51-A
f143613   Van Tilroe   R-L23/L51*   Netherlands   19   m23-1313-51-A
fE4861   Amstad-Wang   R-L23/L51*   Switzerland   xx   m23-1313-51-B
f49624   Harrell   R-L23/L51*   England   12   m23-1313-51-B
f109760   Illés   R-L23/L51*   Hungary   xx   m23-1313-51-B
fE12456   Lanna   R-L23/L51*   Italy   xx   m23-1313-51-B
f22103   Warner   R-L23/L51*   Germany   14   m23-1313-51-B
 


Yes, Maliclavelli, Italy is included. Is there any way you can get Di Abondantio and Lanna upgraded to 67 markers?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 04, 2012, 01:33:54 PM
As I have written here in some thread, I have written to Malagodi, who is in the ht35 Project and has been tested M269+ and L11-, to test L51. He ordered the SNP c/o Igenea, even though I am sure he will be so, and, as I have written to Rich Rocca in private,  it seems to me the most varied so far with DYS19=13 and DYS437=17,  both very slow mutating ones. But Italy is a mine by a genetic point of view, only that they did test themselves.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 04, 2012, 01:48:25 PM
Malagodi has been tested for 67 markers and you may put him in your spreadsheet. He gets other interesting mutations in very slow markers, and this demonstrates, I think, that the orther values "mutated around the modal".


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 04, 2012, 01:51:34 PM
There are many R-L51 I found on SMGF and put on ySearch, but of course, beyond DYS426=13, they haven't been SNP tested.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 04, 2012, 02:02:57 PM
We do have L51* folks identified, but I think they are more of a remnant subclade than a scattering.  Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just providing some information.  Will do more.  I need to look up some of the Ysearch IDs associated with the kits.

By remnant, I agree, they seem to have had success only in S. France and N Italy. Their offspring on the other-hand went in all directions. The fat that France is central to western Europe would explain the similar variance that Busby calculated.

I want to add a cautionary note related to the notion of descendancy.  The L51* modern folks are clearly just modern folks.  It is definitely true that the father of the first L11+ man was a L51* man, but as we know he lived long ago.  Of course, where is a big question.

Frequency is not necessarily a great indicator of origin so a higher frequency in the south of France or north of Italy is another piece to the puzzle, but it is not conclusive as is nothing I'm going to say here is either.

I mentioned earlier that Peter H has put me on to a trail of thinking.  We are just speculating, here, right?  I don't know if this is correct but it is another alternative.  Let me throw in the caveats that I criticize everyone else on - 1) one STR is not enough, albeit 426 is very slow and 2) a paragroup may not be a valid group to analyze statistically as it is missing a large portion of its population.

The speculative alternative is based on the notion that 426=11 is the ancestral value for M269. It is the modal for M269xL23.  A mutation step of 1, 426=12, is the modal for L23xL51.  At the same time, the clear modal for P312, U106 and L11 as a whole is 426=12 so the hypothesis is that 426=12 is the ancestral for L11. That leaves modern L51xL11 as the odd man out with 426=13.

At the same time you can find among L23xL51 very WAMH-like haplotypes. They would, of course, have 426=12, like L11. Hence, this speculation is that the first L51+ man inherited 426=12 from his L21xL51 ancestral lineage. Most of the first L51+ guys' early branches died off.  One that survived, albeit relatively weakly, took the 426=13 mutation that we see today.  Of course, one of the early L51+ 426=12 lineages had a little better luck and produced first L11 man.

In this scenario, we don't where the L51+ 426=12 that was pre-L11 came from.  Since we are speculating, as I think most of you know, Peter H has noticed (and its true) that some of the WAMH like folks that are L23xL51 people are Assyrians or Armenians.  Granted these are modern people, so this could be just convergence.   One thing that is interesting about the L23xL51 that are WAMH-like, after you get away from Anatolia and the Assyrians, you find a couple of guys in Switzerland. Yes, there are people from Greece, Kosovo and Italy too that fit this bill.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 04, 2012, 02:08:05 PM
Please ignore, question already answered.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 04, 2012, 02:41:38 PM

I want to add a cautionary note related to the notion of descendancy.  The L51* modern folks are clearly just modern folks.  It is definitely true that the father of the first L11+ man was a L51* man, but as we know he lived long ago.  Of course, where is a big question.

Frequency is not necessarily a great indicator of origin so a higher frequency in the south of France or north of Italy is another piece to the puzzle, but it is not conclusive as is nothing I'm going to say here is either.

I mentioned earlier that Peter H has put me on to a trail of thinking.  We are just speculating, here, right?  I don't know if this is correct but it is another alternative.  Let me throw in the caveats that I criticize everyone else on - 1) one STR is not enough, albeit 426 is very slow and 2) a paragroup may not be a valid group to analyze statistically as it is missing a large portion of its population.

The speculative alternative is based on the notion that 426=11 is the ancestral value for M269. It is the modal for M269xL23.  A mutation step of 1, 426=12, is the modal for L23xL51.  At the same time, the clear modal for P312, U106 and L11 as a whole is 426=12 so the hypothesis is that 426=12 is the ancestral for L11. That leaves modern L51xL11 as the odd man out with 426=13.

At the same time you can find among L23xL51 very WAMH-like haplotypes. They would, of course, have 426=12, like L11. Hence, this speculation is that the first L51+ man inherited 426=12 from his L21xL51 ancestral lineage. Most of the first L51+ guys' early branches died off.  One that survived, albeit relatively weakly, took the 426=13 mutation that we see today.  Of course, one of the early L51+ 426=12 lineages had a little better luck and produced first L11 man.

In this scenario, we don't where the L51+ 426=12 that was pre-L11 came from.  Since we are speculating, as I think most of you know, Peter H has noticed (and its true) that some of the WAMH like folks that are L23xL51 people are Assyrians or Armenians.  Granted these are modern people, so this could be just convergence.   One thing that is interesting about the L23xL51 that are WAMH-like, after you get away from Anatolia and the Assyrians, you find a couple of guys in Switzerland. Yes, there are people from Greece, Kosovo and Italy too that fit this bill.


All of your cautions are valid and should go without saying. However, as you know, none of this should be hypothesized without looking at other factors:

1. Yes, modern L51* is scattered, but the scattering is very lopsided and heavily in favor of France and Italy. As for the outliers, they are just that, "outliers". If we tested 1000 guys from Yemen, I'm sure every SNP on the planet would be represented.
2. All P312 branches seem to be Franco-something or other: U152 is Franco-Italian, L21 is Franco-British, DF27 is Franco-Iberian.
3. As you have seen, U152 has higher variance than even P312* and of course U152 has its center in south-central Europe. In a swift migration scenario, you think L51 was far behind? Like I've said, I've seen zero evidence of a non-European origin for L51 and aparently neither did Natalie Myres and co.
4. The linguistic similarities between Celtic and Italic are such that a shared ancestry has been debated for decades (proto-Celto-Italic). Both of these languages left a trace in Iberia as well.
5. Guess which ancient language is considered both Celtic and Italic, albeit a little more Celtic than Italic? Ligurian. Guess where Ligurian was spoken? Yup, S.E. France and NW Italy.

There is just too much smoke close to the Rhone and the Western Alps to think this all a coincidence.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 05, 2012, 09:12:25 PM
Here is my L51* (aka S167 and M412) frequency map based on Busby et al. (2011) data.  

(http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png)
Click here to see the larger map: http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png (http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png)
....

This is a question that I don't have a strong opinion, but it is challenge to what type of frequency should be considered.  

The question is: Would it be more valuable to look at R1b subcomponents, i.e. R-L51*, as percentage of total R1b rather than as of the total population?

I remember that Vince Vizachero created a couple of diagrams in the old ht35 thread where he showed the frequency of various types of R1b (such as L11+ versus L11-) as percentage of total R1b, not the total population.   What this does is highlight the mix of R1b across the geographies. If you think, like I do, that frequency can be misleading and is of less value than diversity then it helpful to look at the the mix of the subclades of R1b against total R1b.

R1b in Eastern Europe and in SW Asia is of very low frequency so when the Myres data came out and I tried to depict how R1b subclades were spread across Europe I used a series of pie charts by region (broad ones) where the items like L11* were shown as percentage of R1b.  I wonder if that would change our perspective?  It would amplify where small components, like L51*, show up but R1b is a bit light.

Since I don't think absolute frequency is that important, I lean towards this method of visualization as being valuable.   I do like your frequency maps and appreciate the work. It is very helpful.  It's just that there are many ways to display data.  Some forms of display (charting) may give you answers to different questions than what are being asked....   good, bad, or ugly - I think about this kind of stuff in my profession.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 06, 2012, 11:24:57 AM

I want to add a cautionary note related to the notion of descendancy.  The L51* modern folks are clearly just modern folks.  It is definitely true that the father of the first L11+ man was a L51* man, but as we know he lived long ago.  Of course, where is a big question.

Frequency is not necessarily a great indicator of origin so a higher frequency in the south of France or north of Italy is another piece to the puzzle, but it is not conclusive as is nothing I'm going to say here is either.

I mentioned earlier that Peter H has put me on to a trail of thinking.  We are just speculating, here, right?  I don't know if this is correct but it is another alternative.  Let me throw in the caveats that I criticize everyone else on - 1) one STR is not enough, albeit 426 is very slow and 2) a paragroup may not be a valid group to analyze statistically as it is missing a large portion of its population.

The speculative alternative is based on the notion that 426=11 is the ancestral value for M269. It is the modal for M269xL23.  A mutation step of 1, 426=12, is the modal for L23xL51.  At the same time, the clear modal for P312, U106 and L11 as a whole is 426=12 so the hypothesis is that 426=12 is the ancestral for L11. That leaves modern L51xL11 as the odd man out with 426=13.

At the same time you can find among L23xL51 very WAMH-like haplotypes. They would, of course, have 426=12, like L11. Hence, this speculation is that the first L51+ man inherited 426=12 from his L21xL51 ancestral lineage. Most of the first L51+ guys' early branches died off.  One that survived, albeit relatively weakly, took the 426=13 mutation that we see today.  Of course, one of the early L51+ 426=12 lineages had a little better luck and produced first L11 man.

In this scenario, we don't where the L51+ 426=12 that was pre-L11 came from.  Since we are speculating, as I think most of you know, Peter H has noticed (and its true) that some of the WAMH like folks that are L23xL51 people are Assyrians or Armenians.  Granted these are modern people, so this could be just convergence.   One thing that is interesting about the L23xL51 that are WAMH-like, after you get away from Anatolia and the Assyrians, you find a couple of guys in Switzerland. Yes, there are people from Greece, Kosovo and Italy too that fit this bill.


All of your cautions are valid and should go without saying. However, as you know, none of this should be hypothesized without looking at other factors:

1. Yes, modern L51* is scattered, but the scattering is very lopsided and heavily in favor of France and Italy. As for the outliers, they are just that, "outliers". If we tested 1000 guys from Yemen, I'm sure every SNP on the planet would be represented.
2. All P312 branches seem to be Franco-something or other: U152 is Franco-Italian, L21 is Franco-British, DF27 is Franco-Iberian.
3. As you have seen, U152 has higher variance than even P312* and of course U152 has its center in south-central Europe. In a swift migration scenario, you think L51 was far behind? Like I've said, I've seen zero evidence of a non-European origin for L51 and aparently neither did Natalie Myres and co.
4. The linguistic similarities between Celtic and Italic are such that a shared ancestry has been debated for decades (proto-Celto-Italic). Both of these languages left a trace in Iberia as well.
5. Guess which ancient language is considered both Celtic and Italic, albeit a little more Celtic than Italic? Ligurian. Guess where Ligurian was spoken? Yup, S.E. France and NW Italy.

There is just too much smoke close to the Rhone and the Western Alps to think this all a coincidence.

I would tend to agree with that.  Some really important part of the R1b spread into Europe relates to that area of SE France. NW Italy, perhaps Switzerland.  I think if I completely take off my archaeologists hat, the DNA evidence alone does keep pointing to the early importance of that area and its crucial role in the dispersal of R1b in western Europe.  You have kind of convinced me of the striking pattern of L51* with your map that R1b may have entered that area when L11* was not yet dominant (or perhaps just coming into existence.  I am kind of surprised that this interesting pattern was not really emphasised before for L51* but a picture (well map really) says as much as 1000 words.  It just jumps out as significant to me. 

It is tempting to interpret your map as a marine movement from somewhere east of Italy moving around the south of Italy and up its west coast and islands to a major settlement at the Ligurian area.  However, we do not have variance calculations on an area by area basis and the distribution doesnt tell us direction or phasing.  It is possible that L51 could have reach Liguria from the north Alpine area coming down the Rhone and then dispersed southwards (perhaps in a movement also including downstream clades). Mike mentioned that the L51* variant most likely to be ancestral to L11* is found in Switzerland and I do recall there is a minor concentration of L11* there on the Myres maps.  If that were true then the missing link is between L23* in SE Europe (and thereabouts) to some largely dissapeared L51* lineage in the north Alpine area. 

So, IMO we still have a missing link issue although I think your map is helping to refine the issue.  I have an open mind on a central European, Med or both route for R1b into Europe.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 06, 2012, 04:09:57 PM
....  You have kind of convinced me of the striking pattern of L51* with your map that R1b may have entered that area when L11* was not yet dominant (or perhaps just coming into existence.  I am kind of surprised that this interesting pattern was not really emphasised before for L51* but a picture (well map really) says as much as 1000 words.  It just jumps out as significant to me.  

I think we need to be cautious with frequency maps. The visualization may be powerful, but not necessarily on target.  This is no criticism of Richard R, just that we are often looking at partial depictions of the data.

Since I don't think absolute frequency is that important, I lean towards this method of visualization as being valuable.   I do like your frequency maps and appreciate the work. It is very helpful.  It's just that there are many ways to display data.  Some forms of display (charting) may give you answers to different questions than what are being asked....   good, bad, or ugly - I think about this kind of stuff in my profession.


.
So, IMO we still have a missing link issue although I think your map is helping to refine the issue.  I have an open mind on a central European, Med or both route for R1b into Europe.


I agree, totally.  Richard R's map helps refine the issues, but we still have a missing link.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 07, 2012, 09:26:31 AM
...
There is just too much smoke close to the Rhone and the Western Alps to think this all a coincidence.

I didn't mean to mis-communicate. I agree, the Lower Rhone and the Western Alps were obviously an launching areas for P312.

However, that doesn't mean L11 originated there or that the Lower Rhone was its first launching area. That is all I am saying.

How do you think U106 ties into this?

R1b Subclades Frequency Maps by Myres
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b_Subclades_Frequency_Maps_by_Myres_2010.png

We know U106 has a different distribution than P312 even though it is closely related to L51* and L11* also.  As I've said, I'm more interested in diversity than frequency. From what I can tell with long haplotypes and Myres' age estimates, U106 is older in Poland and along the Baltic.

I think it is possible that U106 is old in Switzerland and Austria.... possibly even over into SE France or N Italy but that is a bit of stretch.  It's possible, though.  It's just that from what data I've seen it is older well north and east of the Alps. I haven't looked at the U106 subclades as much. Any evidence of a southern origin?

1. Yes, modern L51* is scattered, but the scattering is very lopsided and heavily in favor of France and Italy. As for the outliers, they are just that, "outliers". If we tested 1000 guys from Yemen, I'm sure every SNP on the planet would be represented.

It appears you place a premium on frequency. That's fine, particularly for assessing where L51* may be point of pooling. L21 is very high in Ireland, also probably in some locations in the US, but I think we have to decipher that in context of potential destination or growth locations.

I hesitate to call R1b in SW Asia as "outliers" and therefore summarily dismiss them. (Oh boy, Maclivelli probably thinks I'm nuts - what's an outlier? what's an exception?)  

2. All P312 branches seem to be Franco-something or other: U152 is Franco-Italian, L21 is Franco-British, DF27 is Franco-Iberian.

I agree SE France was a hotspot for P312. The STR and SNP diversity there is high.

4. The linguistic similarities between Celtic and Italic are such that a shared ancestry has been debated for decades (proto-Celto-Italic). Both of these languages left a trace in Iberia as well.

5. Guess which ancient language is considered both Celtic and Italic, albeit a little more Celtic than Italic? Ligurian. Guess where Ligurian was spoken? Yup, S.E. France and NW Italy.

I have little to comment on the linguistics other than to concur that there is a clear link of this languages and there is a clear link of these locations to P312.

3. As you have seen, U152 has higher variance than even P312* and of course U152 has its center in south-central Europe. In a swift migration scenario, you think L51 was far behind? Like I've said, I've seen zero evidence of a non-European origin for L51 and aparently neither did Natalie Myres and co.

What do you mean by "you think L51 was far behind?"   Why would L51 not have been ahead?  What are you asking?

Lack of evidence is not evidence of absence.  I may be misreading the tables but I think I see at least one L51xL11 person is from Iran and one from Turkey.  Maybe that is not enough smoke to call a fire, but maybe its just an ember. An ember is still an ember.

Do you disagree with the proposal by Wells of the Central Asia "heartland" for Hg R, P and Q? This goes with Alan's thought that there is a missing link.

I found these two old charts based on the Myres data. I created the first one and Maju created the second.  Please correct me if I misunderstand the Myres notations but I have that M412=L51 and M529=L21 and that Maju had a typo on M529 as M259 (it should be M529/L21.)

These are just frequency maps, but with a different base than the total population. The base for the frequency ratios is either M269 (R1b1a2) or in my case M343 (R1b.)

R1b-M269 Substructure by Maju with Myres data
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b-M269_Substructure_V2_by_Maju_Myres_data.png
http://forwhattheywereweare.blogspot.com/2012/03/basque-and-gascon-y-dna-survey.html

R1b-M343 Substructure by MW with Myres data
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b-M343_Substructure_R1b-L11_Focus_by_MW_Myres_data.png

It is very clear that the haplogroup mix changes dramatically as we go east through East Europe to SW Asia, the Caucasus and even just to the north of the Caucasus.

I disagree with Maju's terminology in calling M269xL23 and L23xL51 "ancestral" as they modern groups and probably have their own downstream SNPs that haven't been discovered yet.  Still, whether there is a downstream SNP or not, M269xL23 and L23xL51 are different than M269 in Western Europe.

I think that we have to consider L23xL51 differently than L51xL11.   L23xL51 has high STR diversity and probably really is a set of subclades.  In other words, they are like 2nd or 3rd or 4th cousins that are probably 2nd or 3rd or 4th cousins to each other.  

The extant L51xL11 that we have found so far has low diversity. In fact, they all have 426=13 so they even have a common STR signature different than L23xL51 and different than L11.  From this perspective, we should think of these guys as L51xL11 13's, where the "13" is a subclade marker. In a family tree sense, they are more like 1st cousins or 2nd cousins to P312 and U106, but they are not 1st or 2nd cousins to each other, L51xL11 "13" folks are probably their own singular branch of the family.

That still leaves us with missing links between U106 and P312 within L11* and from L11 back through the elusive L51xL11 until we get to L23xL51.... which (L23xL51) really does appear old on the fringes of Europe and to the east.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 07, 2012, 10:00:18 AM
Mikewww says: “I think it is possible that U106 is old in Switzerland and Austria.... possibly even over into SE France or N Italy but that is a bit of stretch.  It's possible, though.  It's just that from what data I've seen it is older well north and east of the Alps. I haven't looked at the U106 subclades as much. Any evidence of a southern origin?”

You know that some years ago U106 was thought German and when it was found in Italy it was German and recent: what we call “Invasioni barbariche”, Germans “Völkerwanderungen” and you “Migrations of peoples”. Probably I was one of the first to say that it wasn’t said that U106 found in Italy didn’t come from what I call the “Italian Refugium”. Now we see that Italian U106 are above all of the most ancient  origin, DYS390=24 and no SNP downstream. Certainly there are also some more recent haplotypes, come probably with German peoples.
Austria had and has a huge presence of U106, and of course it was easy to think to Germans,  but also this isn’t said. They too may be ancient and before the German migration, above all if we think that my “Italian Refugium” was there: North Italy/Alps.
Then you ask where is the “missing link”. I have formulated a hypothesis, which of course  must be verified.
And otherwise we wouldn’t be able to explain the presence in South Poland of R-L51+, just the RRocca’s map. And more interesting would be a discourse about the mtDNA, discourse I have done here in other threads.
Also about this we are waiting for aDNA, that I presume will come soon.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 07, 2012, 11:01:05 AM
@Mike...

I don't know enough about U106, but when I eyeballed the Myres samples from Estonia (n=10) and Poland (n=9) they seemed to be an even split between L48 and non-L48 samples whereas the ones from England seem to be overwhelmingly L48. In that regard, I think the lack of SNP depth is misleading. I'm not sure if anyone has done a variance deep dive based on FTDNA Z-series SNPs. Certainly I think the first U106 carrier was DYS390=24, and I think most U106 folks will agree with that. The caution there is that DYS390=24 is the modal in several parts of Europe, including the south.

As for my placing a premium on frequency - I do and I don't. In the specific case of L51*, FTDNA samples are so scarce, that geographical variance/diversity is of no help and therefore frequency is very much in play. While I did notice that all surviving L51* are probably the result of a later founder based on the DYS426=13, the caution should be lessened somewhat by the fact that they represent the first DYS393=13, which of course is modal in WAMH.

By the way, I didn't call R1b in SW Asia an outlier, I called L51* in SW Asia an outlier which of course is a huge difference. I am well aware of L23* in the Caucasias, among Baskhirs, etc. Still, I have yet to see a European L23* sample test L584+, so I still think that we could see small incremental uptics in variance from Anatolia>Balkans>Southern Italy which will be separated by their own regional SNPs once full genome sequencing finds them.

All other discussion about P, Q, R, R1, R1b, etc. are just too far off topic as they probably happened thousands or even tens of thousands of years before L51.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 07, 2012, 11:14:45 AM
...
There is just too much smoke close to the Rhone and the Western Alps to think this all a coincidence.

I didn't mean to mis-communicate. I agree, the Lower Rhone and the Western Alps were obviously an launching areas for P312.

However, that doesn't mean L11 originated there or that the Lower Rhone was its first launching area. That is all I am saying.

How do you think U106 ties into this?

R1b Subclades Frequency Maps by Myres
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b_Subclades_Frequency_Maps_by_Myres_2010.png

We know U106 has a different distribution than P312 even though it is closely related to L51* and L11* also.  As I've said, I'm more interested in diversity than frequency. From what I can tell with long haplotypes and Myres' age estimates, U106 is older in Poland and along the Baltic.

I think it is possible that U106 is old in Switzerland and Austria.... possibly even over into SE France or N Italy but that is a bit of stretch.  It's possible, though.  It's just that from what data I've seen it is older well north and east of the Alps. I haven't looked at the U106 subclades as much. Any evidence of a southern origin?

1. Yes, modern L51* is scattered, but the scattering is very lopsided and heavily in favor of France and Italy. As for the outliers, they are just that, "outliers". If we tested 1000 guys from Yemen, I'm sure every SNP on the planet would be represented.

It appears you place a premium on frequency. That's fine, particularly for assessing where L51* may be point of pooling. L21 is very high in Ireland, also probably in some locations in the US, but I think we have to decipher that in context of potential destination or growth locations.

I hesitate to call R1b in SW Asia as "outliers" and therefore summarily dismiss them. (Oh boy, Maclivelli probably thinks I'm nuts - what's an outlier? what's an exception?)  

2. All P312 branches seem to be Franco-something or other: U152 is Franco-Italian, L21 is Franco-British, DF27 is Franco-Iberian.

I agree SE France was a hotspot for P312. The STR and SNP diversity there is high.

4. The linguistic similarities between Celtic and Italic are such that a shared ancestry has been debated for decades (proto-Celto-Italic). Both of these languages left a trace in Iberia as well.

5. Guess which ancient language is considered both Celtic and Italic, albeit a little more Celtic than Italic? Ligurian. Guess where Ligurian was spoken? Yup, S.E. France and NW Italy.

I have little to comment on the linguistics other than to concur that there is a clear link of this languages and there is a clear link of these locations to P312.

3. As you have seen, U152 has higher variance than even P312* and of course U152 has its center in south-central Europe. In a swift migration scenario, you think L51 was far behind? Like I've said, I've seen zero evidence of a non-European origin for L51 and aparently neither did Natalie Myres and co.

What do you mean by "you think L51 was far behind?"   Why would L51 not have been ahead?  What are you asking?

Lack of evidence is not evidence of absence.  I may be misreading the tables but I think I see at least one L51xL11 person is from Iran and one from Turkey.  Maybe that is not enough smoke to call a fire, but maybe its just an ember. An ember is still an ember.

Do you disagree with the proposal by Wells of the Central Asia "heartland" for Hg R, P and Q? This goes with Alan's thought that there is a missing link.

I found these two old charts based on the Myres data. I created the first one and Maju created the second.  Please correct me if I misunderstand the Myres notations but I have that M412=L51 and M529=L21 and that Maju had a typo on M529 as M259 (it should be M529/L21.)

These are just frequency maps, but with a different base than the total population. The base for the frequency ratios is either M269 (R1b1a2) or in my case M343 (R1b.)

R1b-M269 Substructure by Maju with Myres data
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b-M269_Substructure_V2_by_Maju_Myres_data.png
http://forwhattheywereweare.blogspot.com/2012/03/basque-and-gascon-y-dna-survey.html

R1b-M343 Substructure by MW with Myres data
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b-M343_Substructure_R1b-L11_Focus_by_MW_Myres_data.png

It is very clear that the haplogroup mix changes dramatically as we go east through East Europe to SW Asia, the Caucasus and even just to the north of the Caucasus.

I disagree with Maju's terminology in calling M269xL23 and L23xL51 "ancestral" as they modern groups and probably have their own downstream SNPs that haven't been discovered yet.  Still, whether there is a downstream SNP or not, M269xL23 and L23xL51 are different than M269 in Western Europe.

I think that we have to consider L23xL51 differently than L51xL11.   L23xL51 has high STR diversity and probably really is a set of subclades.  In other words, they are like 2nd or 3rd or 4th cousins that are probably 2nd or 3rd or 4th cousins to each other.  

The extant L51xL11 that we have found so far has low diversity. In fact, they all have 426=13 so they even have a common STR signature different than L23xL51 and different than L11.  From perspective, we should think of these guys as L51xL11 13's, where the "13" is a subclade marker. In a family tree sense, they are more like 1st cousins or 2nd cousins to P312 and U106, but they are not 1st or 2nd cousins to each other, L51xL11 "13" folks are probably their own singular branch of the family.

That still leaves us with missing links between U106 and P312 within L11* and from L11 back through the elusive L51xL11 until we get to L23xL51.... which (L23xL51) really does appear old on the fringes of Europe and to the east.


Mike

I dont disagree with any of that.  To be honest I was not really thinking of the L51* as ancestral as such.  I suspect they were a minor lineage that travelled with a mainly L11 or derived group.  However, that assumptions still makes L51* interesting as an idenfiable element in the sea of P312 and may perhaps gives us a proxy for a larger movement of L11 or P312 of which L51* was just a fellow traveler.  

If all of these hunches and assumptions are correct (and they may not be) then we do have a trace of the networks of movement.  The SE France-NW France NW Italy, Sciclly-Portugal-Holland-Ireland-outlying central European rises in frequency to bear a strong (if imperfect - but allow for 4000 years of history since then) resemblance to important Beaker nodes and connections- not the entire network but a lot of it.  

Are they early traces?  I actually suspect they are. My simple reasoning is that progressive fission as R1b moved would likely leave a pattern of more of a mix of lineages of ancestral and derived type nearer the origin point with subsets of subsets breaking off with the fission and leading to homogenous groups at the end points furthest away from the origin.

However, I totally agree that if L51* is predominantly a parallel clade rather than ancestral to L11 clades then the missing link of actual ancestral L51 and L23 before it remains to be found and defined.  

Skipping over the non-ancestral L51* (assuming that is what it is), is there any L23* whose STRs look particularly like L11's and if so where are they located?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 07, 2012, 11:50:35 AM
Another hint that L51* was a minority early traveller with L11 is the fairly strong resemblance between the distribution of L51* and U152 in Italy and Europe in general.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jdean on May 07, 2012, 12:34:05 PM
Mikewww says: “I think it is possible that U106 is old in Switzerland and Austria.... possibly even over into SE France or N Italy but that is a bit of stretch.  It's possible, though.  It's just that from what data I've seen it is older well north and east of the Alps. I haven't looked at the U106 subclades as much. Any evidence of a southern origin?”

You know that some years ago U106 was thought German and when it was found in Italy it was German and recent: what we call “Invasioni barbariche”, Germans “Völkerwanderungen” and you “Migrations of peoples”. Probably I was one of the first to say that it wasn’t said that U106 found in Italy didn’t come from what I call the “Italian Refugium”. Now we see that Italian U106 are above all of the most ancient  origin, DYS390=24 and no SNP downstream. Certainly there are also some more recent haplotypes, come probably with German peoples.
Austria had and has a huge presence of U106, and of course it was easy to think to Germans,  but also this isn’t said. They too may be ancient and before the German migration, above all if we think that my “Italian Refugium” was there: North Italy/Alps.
Then you ask where is the “missing link”. I have formulated a hypothesis, which of course  must be verified.
And otherwise we wouldn’t be able to explain the presence in South Poland of R-L51+, just the RRocca’s map. And more interesting would be a discourse about the mtDNA, discourse I have done here in other threads.
Also about this we are waiting for aDNA, that I presume will come soon.


U106+, Z381-, Z18- is a pretty small group at the moment and I'm not aware of any with Italian descent, could you post some details of these kits please ?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 07, 2012, 01:16:49 PM
Skipping over the non-ancestral L51* (assuming that is what it is), is there any L23* whose STRs look particularly like L11's and if so where are they located?

This is Peter Hrechdakian's (of the R1b ht35 project) theory.  It would be better we hear from him or that we find his presentations/posts.

Here are the closest GD's to the L11* modal.  The GD at 67 is the last two digits.  About half of these guys are L584+. Not sure what to make of that.

f205749   Al-Jeloo   Iraq (Assyrian project)   10
fN51805   Arnwine   zzzUnkOrigin   13
f184555   Bahlavouni   Turkey (Armenian project)   13
f185690   Papazian   Turkey (Armenian project)   14
f177152   Burkholder   Switzerland   17
f213562   David   Iraq (Assyrian project)   17
f164219   Sinanian   Turkey (Armenian project)   18
fE12439   Fega   Albania   20
f162445   Panopoulos   Greece, Attica, Marathon, Mati   20
fN74713   Tchekidjian   Turkey (Armenian project)   20
f182296   Burckhalter   Switzerland   20
f84950   Ciulla   Italy   21
fN76689   Khalil   Egypt   21
f83616   zzzUnkName   zzzUnkOrigin   21
fE11319   Malagodi   Italy, Emilia-Romagna, Ferrara, Cento   23


This is a different way to look for "WAMHish" R-L23xL51 folks.  These all have 393=13 390=24 385=11,14

f205749   Al-Jeloo   Iraq (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   11   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f177152   Burkholder   Switzerland   13   24   15   10   11   14   12   12   12   13   14   15
f213562   David   Iraq (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
fN74713   Tchekidjian   Turkey (Armenian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   13   14   13   16
fN76689   Khalil   Egypt   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   13   13   13   19
fE11319   Malagodi   Italy, Emilia-Romagna, Ferrara, Cento   13   24   13   10   11   14   13   12   12   13   13   16
f77594   Constantini   Greece (Jewish project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f168028   Turzó   Hungary, Hajdú-Bihar Co., Szentpéterszeg   13   24   14   11   11   14   13   12   12   13   13   15
f73539   Bacchus   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f61835   Hurmis   Turkey (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f205003   Khoshabow   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f83734   Oshana   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f60631   Paul   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   11   14   13   16
fN93831   Solomon   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16


I'm not purposely trying to NOT show Western Europeans. Despite the much greater penetration of consumer DNA testing in NW Europe these kind of R-L23xL51 people are just not found to any great extent in the northwest.

Peter H points to the Assyrians.   I think our data is too light to really tell, but it is something else to evaluate.

Maliclevelli has brought Malagodi before.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 07, 2012, 01:21:13 PM
U106+, Z381-, Z18- is a pretty small group at the moment and I'm not aware of any with Italian descent, could you post some details of these kits please ?
Of course I don't know if some Italian has been tested for Z381 and Z18. I did mean for the most diffused SNPs known before this Z series.
But, if you know it, tell me who are these few tested.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 07, 2012, 01:24:57 PM
All other discussion about P, Q, R, R1, R1b, etc. are just too far off topic as they probably happened thousands or even tens of thousands of years before L51.

I think they are relevant in that they are other pieces to the puzzle.  The more pieces you can plug in, the more we have a chance to figure it out.

R1 is likely Central Asian. R1b-M343 is probably less than 18k ybp and by the time we get to R1b-M269, folks like FTDNA's Mike Hammers are saying 4-8K ybp.  If we find M269xL23 in SW Asia and we see V88 splitting off into Africa, then we are setting the logical base for an east to west expansion/migration at some time.  This is where the missing links appear (or don't appear) - from SW Asia to Western Europe.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 07, 2012, 01:40:29 PM
All other discussion about P, Q, R, R1, R1b, etc. are just too far off topic as they probably happened thousands or even tens of thousands of years before L51.

I think they are relevant in that they are other pieces to the puzzle.  The more pieces you can plug in, the more we have chance to figure it out.

R1 is likely Central Aisian. R1b-M343 is probably less than 18k ybp and by the time we get to R1b-M269, folks like FTDNA's Mike Hammers are saying 4-8K ybp.  If we find M269xL23 in SW Asia and we see V88 splitting off into Africa, then we are setting the logical base for an east to west expansion/migration at some time.  This is where the missing links appear (or don't appear) - from SW Asia to Western Europe.

It's not that it's not relevant, it's that nobody (sans Gioiello) is arguing against M269xL23 coming from the east. I (and Myres) put the first L51 in Europe and I think there will be some clearly European sub-clades of L23*. Everything before that certainly looks eastern to me.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 07, 2012, 01:41:23 PM
I’ll study your spreadsheet but it seems to me it has a few meaning. Malagodi is going to be tested for L51 c/o Igenea for my invite and I think he will be certainly of this haplogroup.
The others: the most part are Armenians or of ancient Armenian descent, others are of the Balkan cluster (L23), some of the L277 now abolished by FTDNA but they have this SNP. How can you put all them together?
If you are searching for the ancestor of L11, the unique is Malagodi, who is of the upstream SNP. All the others are so far. But if you did know my haplotype and of my relatives and that of Giorgio Tognarelli and also Romitti, certainly we, like L23, are closer.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jdean on May 07, 2012, 01:41:45 PM
U106+, Z381-, Z18- is a pretty small group at the moment and I'm not aware of any with Italian descent, could you post some details of these kits please ?
Of course I don't know if some Italian has been tested for Z381 and Z18. I did mean for the most diffused SNPs known before this Z series.
But, if you know it, tell me who are these few tested.

Six that I know of.

Vince Tilroe is one, after that we have two with English ancestry, one Scotish, one German and a brickwalled American with an English surname.

There are also three who haven’t tested Z18, two of these are brickwalled but have typically British Isles names and the other Polish.

Testing is limited at the moment though, possibly because of the dominance of L48 in U106.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Humanist on May 07, 2012, 02:29:42 PM
This is Peter Hrechdakian's (of the R1b ht35 project) theory.  It would be better we hear from him or that we find his presentations/posts.

Here are the closest GD's to the L11* modal.  The GD at 67 is the last two digits.  About half of these guys are L584+. Not sure what to make of that.

f205749   Al-Jeloo   Iraq (Assyrian project)   10

That is interesting. 

It is difficult for Assyrians to trace their ancestry, thanks to all of the upheavals of the last several centuries (e.g. Arabs, Mongols, Kurds, etc.), but, based on what Nicholas Al-Jeloo has been able to gather, his paternal line may be from Arbil, in N Iraq.

UNESCO » Culture » World Heritage Centre

Quote
Erbil Citadel Town, which is situated dramatically on top of an artificial, 32-meters high earthen mound, and visually dominating the expansive modern city of Erbil, is believed to have been in continuous existence for 7000 years or even more. Thus, it may be regarded as the oldest continuously inhabited settlement in the world.  Because of its past fortifications and steeply inclined mound, which is at some locations nearly 45 degrees, it has managed to survive numerous sieges and fierce attacks.  The existing fabric, however, goes back to several hundred years but is, nevertheless, of extreme vernacular architectural and urban interest, not only for Iraq but also for humanity at large.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 07, 2012, 02:51:28 PM
Skipping over the non-ancestral L51* (assuming that is what it is), is there any L23* whose STRs look particularly like L11's and if so where are they located?

This is Peter Hrechdakian's (of the R1b ht35 project) theory.  It would be better we hear from him or that we find his presentations/posts.

Here are the closest GD's to the L11* modal.  The GD at 67 is the last two digits.  About half of these guys are L584+. Not sure what to make of that.

f205749   Al-Jeloo   Iraq (Assyrian project)   10
fN51805   Arnwine   zzzUnkOrigin   13
f184555   Bahlavouni   Turkey (Armenian project)   13
f185690   Papazian   Turkey (Armenian project)   14
f177152   Burkholder   Switzerland   17
f213562   David   Iraq (Assyrian project)   17
f164219   Sinanian   Turkey (Armenian project)   18
fE12439   Fega   Albania   20
f162445   Panopoulos   Greece, Attica, Marathon, Mati   20
fN74713   Tchekidjian   Turkey (Armenian project)   20
f182296   Burckhalter   Switzerland   20
f84950   Ciulla   Italy   21
fN76689   Khalil   Egypt   21
f83616   zzzUnkName   zzzUnkOrigin   21
fE11319   Malagodi   Italy, Emilia-Romagna, Ferrara, Cento   23


This is a different way to look for "WAMHish" R-L23xL51 folks.  These all have 393=13 390=24 385=11,14

f205749   Al-Jeloo   Iraq (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   11   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f177152   Burkholder   Switzerland   13   24   15   10   11   14   12   12   12   13   14   15
f213562   David   Iraq (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
fN74713   Tchekidjian   Turkey (Armenian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   13   14   13   16
fN76689   Khalil   Egypt   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   13   13   13   19
fE11319   Malagodi   Italy, Emilia-Romagna, Ferrara, Cento   13   24   13   10   11   14   13   12   12   13   13   16
f77594   Constantini   Greece (Jewish project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f168028   Turzó   Hungary, Hajdú-Bihar Co., Szentpéterszeg   13   24   14   11   11   14   13   12   12   13   13   15
f73539   Bacchus   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f61835   Hurmis   Turkey (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f205003   Khoshabow   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f83734   Oshana   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f60631   Paul   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   11   14   13   16
fN93831   Solomon   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16


I'm not purposely trying to NOT show Western Europeans. Despite the much greater penetration of consumer DNA testing in NW Europe these kind of R-L23xL51 people are just not found to any great extent in the northwest.

Peter H points to the Assyrians.   I think our data is too light to really tell, but it is something else to evaluate.

Maliclevelli has brought Malagodi before.

It is very blurry but it does give the impression that the reason for a 'missing link' might be some sort of jump by sea from Aegean area around the south tip of Italy.  In fact if you think about it the 'missing link' if it remains may be the most compelling evidence of this and maybe we are chasing moonbeams looking for the L23 trail through central Europe.  Only the Swiss guys point to alternatives but they share variants of the same surname.  


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Humanist on May 07, 2012, 03:04:20 PM

Peter H points to the Assyrians.   I think our data is too light to really tell, but it is something else to evaluate.

I will concur with that.   Sixty-seven marker haplotypes from Druze and Alawites would be a terrific start.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 07, 2012, 04:00:55 PM
All other discussion about P, Q, R, R1, R1b, etc. are just too far off topic as they probably happened thousands or even tens of thousands of years before L51.

I think they are relevant in that they are other pieces to the puzzle.  The more pieces you can plug in, the more we have a chance to figure it out.

R1 is likely Central Asian. R1b-M343 is probably less than 18k ybp and by the time we get to R1b-M269, folks like FTDNA's Mike Hammers are saying 4-8K ybp.  If we find M269xL23 in SW Asia and we see V88 splitting off into Africa, then we are setting the logical base for an east to west expansion/migration at some time.  This is where the missing links appear (or don't appear) - from SW Asia to Western Europe.

It's not that it's not relevant, it's that nobody (sans Gioiello) is arguing against M269xL23 coming from the east. I (and Myres) put the first L51 in Europe and I think there will be some clearly European sub-clades of L23*. Everything before that certainly looks eastern to me.

You may very well be right, but the implication that goes with L51 is that L11 was first in SE France too.  

In the Busby data tables I see L11* lightly scattered to places like:
Ukraine
Estonia
Slovakia (2 Sets)
Crete
Central Italy
South Italy
East Sicily

Maliclevelli, there you again - Italy makes the list, although Ukraine had a larger number.... still all very light.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 07, 2012, 04:02:46 PM

R1 is likely Central Aisian. R1b-M343 is probably less than 18k ybp and by the time we get to R1b-M269, folks like FTDNA's Mike Hammers are saying 4-8K ybp.  If we find M269xL23 in SW Asia and we see V88 splitting off into Africa, then we are setting the logical base for an east to west expansion/migration at some time.  This is where the missing links appear (or don't appear) - from SW Asia to Western Europe.

Well aDNA now sets the earliest date of R1b-M269 in Europe to 4500 ybp, as for R1b-M269xL23, it is found in Europe too. Per Myres et al(2010) R1b-M269(xL23) is found as follows:

Germany (n=274) 1.09%  (2.13% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Switzerland (n=175) 1.14% (2.17% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Slovenia (n=102) 0.98% (5.55% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Poland (n=202) 0.495% (4% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Hungary (n=113) 0.88% (4.35% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Russia (n=1037) 0.289% (6% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Ukraine (n=504) 0.198% (3.45%  of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Bashkirs (n=586) 1.706% (5.24% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Bosnia (n=78) 1.282% (100% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Serbia (n=113) 4.42% (45.45% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Herzegovina (n=141) 1.418% (50% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Macedonia (n=79) 5.063% (100% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Kosovo(n=114) 7.89% (37.5% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Romania(n=330) 2.727% (22.5% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Italy (n=282) 1.063% (2.86% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Greece (n=185) 1.081% (8.33% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Crete(n=193) 2.072% (12.12% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Northeast Caucasus* (n=374) 0.535% (3.45% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

*R1b-M269(xL23) is only found in Lezgis (n=31) with a frequency of 3.225% (20% of all R1b-M269+ in sample) , and Tabasarans (n=43) with a frequency of 2.325% (5.88% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)      .

Northwest Caucasus (n=695) 0% (0% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

South Caucasus (n=278) 0% (0% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Central Asia-Pakistan and Kazakhstan (n=199) 0% (0% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Jordan (n=222) 0.45% (12.5% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Iran (n=150) 2.667% (33.33% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Turkey (n=611) 1.963% (13.19% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Here is the variance calculation for R1b-M269(xL23) from Myres et al(2010), unfortunately they did not sample the 10 STRs for many of the Balkan populations which are relatively rich in R1b-M269(xL23). (A total of 21 haplotypes of R1b-M269(xL23) weren’t tested for the 10 STRs 1 from Bosnia, 5 from Serbia, 2 from Herzegovina, 4 from Macedonia, 9 from Kosovo).

The European R1b-M269(xL23) 10 STR sample consist of:

Romania-5
Italy-3,
Greece-2, 
Germany-2,
Switzerland-2
Hungary-1
Poland-1
Slovenia-1
Germany-1*


*The authors did include all the German haplotypes, however I did not include 1 in my calculations due to the fact that it was missing the value for DYS19.

European R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes that were not included in sample are:

Kosovo-9
Serbia-5
Macedonia-4
Russia-3
Herzegovina-2
Bosnia-1
Ukraine-1


The West Asian R1b-M269(xL23) 10 STRs sample consist of:

Turkey-10
Iran-1
Tasabaran-1
Bashkirs-1


West Asian R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes that were not included in sample are:

Jordan-1
Iran-3
Turkey-2
Lezgis-2
Bashkirs-9



Anyhow the variance of R1b-M269(xL23) using 10 STRs is as follows:

Europe (n=17) 0.2706

West Asia (n=13) 0.2385

It seems that R1b-M269(xL23) has more variance in Europe than in West Asia, at least for the Myres et al(2010) dataset. 

Anyone's got any info about the variance of R1b-M269(xL23) in the Balkans. I wish Myres et al(2010) would have included the 21 Balkanic sequences that were left out, as to do a comparison of Balkans vs.West Asia. I have a feeling that the Western Balkans(i.e. Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia) would have a high variance for R1b-M269(xL23).


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 07, 2012, 07:19:47 PM
.... Per Myres et al(2010) R1b-M269(xL23) is found as follows:

Macedonia (n=79) 5.063% (100% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)      

Kosovo(n=114) 7.89% (37.5% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)      
....)      
...
I have a feeling that the Western Balkans(i.e. Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia) would have a high variance for R1b-M269(xL23).

It is interesting that Kosovo has a relatively high number of M269xL23.

I thought I'd do some quick reading and found that in Roman times this was
Dardania. The region was inhabited by Illyrians, Celts and Thracians.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: rms2 on May 07, 2012, 08:12:20 PM
Kosovo was part of the Ottoman Empire from 1455-1912. I don't know how much of a y-dna impression the Turks made, but it probably wasn't zero.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 07, 2012, 08:26:45 PM
All I can say is that in the following subset of Europeans:

Romania-5
Italy-3,
Greece-2, 
Germany-2,
Switzerland-2
Hungary-1
Poland-1
Slovenia-1


The variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is 0.2706.

While on the following subset of West Asians:

Turkey-10
Iran-1
Tasabaran-1
Bashkirs-1


The variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is 0.2385

What I found interesting was how significant R1b-M269(xL23) is in the Western Balkans as a percentage of all R1b-M269 found there:

Western Balkans (n=633)

R1b-M269+ 58/633 or 9.16%

R1b-M269(xL23) 21/633 or 3.32%

R1b-M269(xL23) as a percentage of all R1b-M269+ 21/58 or 36.21%

For the record this is the distribution of the 21 R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes in the Western Balkans:

Kosovo-9
Serbia-5
Macedonia-4
Herzegovina-2
Bosnia-1




Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 08, 2012, 08:29:14 AM
All I can say is that in the following subset of Europeans:

Romania-5
Italy-3,
Greece-2,  
Germany-2,
Switzerland-2
Hungary-1
Poland-1
Slovenia-1


The variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is 0.2706.

While on the following subset of West Asians:

Turkey-10
Iran-1
Tasabaran-1
Bashkirs-1


The variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is 0.2385

I don't know how much we can make of such a limited of people and a limited number of STRs, I think you said 10. These academic studies are really frustrating in their limited depth of testing.

What I found interesting was how significant R1b-M269(xL23) is in the Western Balkans as a percentage of all R1b-M269 found there:

Western Balkans (n=633)

R1b-M269+ 58/633 or 9.16%

R1b-M269(xL23) 21/633 or 3.32%

R1b-M269(xL23) as a percentage of all R1b-M269+ 21/58 or 36.21%

For the record this is the distribution of the 21 R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes in the Western Balkans:

Kosovo-9
Serbia-5
Macedonia-4
Herzegovina-2
Bosnia-1

The northern parts of the Balkan Peninsula is fairly mountainous, right?   I don't know the terrain there.  Is this a good place for a group to find safety in isolation?

Also, what should we make of the results in the Western Balkans versus Eastern Balkans?  Is this related to the terrain, the cultures, or something else?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 08, 2012, 10:39:29 AM

I don't know how much we can make of such a limited of people and a limited number of STRs, I think you said 10. These academic studies are really frustrating in their limited depth of testing.

Mike, I’m not sure the number of people is limited. Given the scarcity of R1b-M269(xL23), one should expect to find a small number of people carrying that paragroup, even in large samples. I agree that they should had made use of all samples that were R1b-M269(xL23), and not just 31. Nonetheless, this gives a clear insight that the R1b-M269(xL23) paragroup in Europe (not including the Western Balkans, Crete, Russia, and Ukraine) appears to be more diverse and to have accumulated more variance than the one found in Turkey, Iran, Caucasus and Central Asia. I sincerely did not expect these results when I was running the test. I thought that just like R1b-L23(xL51), R1b-M269(xL23) was going to have more variance outside of Europe, but much to my surprise it didn’t. While, I would highly recommend to wait until more studies bring about more data, perhaps with more STRs, this is somewhat indicative that there might have been multiple migrations, and there is a possibility that say R1b-L23 folks might have wiped out their close(Say R1b-M269(xL23)) ancestors in Western Europe.


The northern parts of the Balkan Peninsula is fairly mountainous, right?   I don't know the terrain there.  Is this a good place for a group to find safety in isolation?

Also, what should we make of the results in the Western Balkans versus Eastern Balkans?  Is this related to the terrain, the cultures, or something else?

Yeah, I always hear of the Dinaric Alps as being a mountainous region. As for Eastern Balkans: Is there any info about the R1b-M269 subclades found in Bulgaria, Turkish Thrace, or Macedonian Greece?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 08, 2012, 11:57:38 AM

I don't know how much we can make of such a limited of people and a limited number of STRs, I think you said 10. These academic studies are really frustrating in their limited depth of testing.

Mike, I’m not sure the number of people is limited. Given the scarcity of R1b-M269(xL23), one should expect to find a small number of people carrying that paragroup, even in large samples......

My comment was just from a pure math, observational perspective. In one group you calculated variance for 10 STRs for 17 Europeans and in another for 13 West Asians, 10 of which were from Anatolia.

I'm just saying I've had bad luck with a limited number of STRs as far as seeing consistent results vis-a-vie haplogroup relative aging and consistency (one or two aberrant STRs impacting the results.)

While, I would highly recommend to wait until more studies bring about more data, perhaps with more STRs, this is somewhat indicative that there might have been multiple migrations, and there is a possibility that say R1b-L23 folks might have wiped out their close(Say R1b-M269(xL23)) ancestors in Western Europe.

I agree, we need more studies and data. I'd love to see more out of SE Europe, Anatolia and the Near East.  Of course, there'll never be enough.

and there is a possibility that say R1b-L23 folks might have wiped out their close(Say R1b-M269(xL23)) ancestors in Western Europe.

Where do you think R-M269 originated?

.... As for Eastern Balkans: Is there any info about the R1b-M269 subclades found in Bulgaria, Turkish Thrace, or Macedonian Greece?

I don't think we find much of the L11 downstream types there. I don't know.  I see some U152 and U106 in Romania.

http://www.familytreedna.com/public/Romania/default.aspx?section=yresults
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/bulgariandna/default.aspx?section=yresults
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/ArmeniaDNAProject/default.aspx?section=yresults
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/turkey/default.aspx?section=yresults


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: razyn on May 08, 2012, 12:06:30 PM
Is anybody in touch with the Romanian (by descent anyway) guy who used to post as Alexandromir on DNA-Forums?  Kit #149471 at FTDNA.  My only direct contact with him was via PM there, in January.  He had plans (and funding) to do a substantial amount of "Carpathian" DNA sampling this summer, mainly in Romania, and maybe Hungary.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 08, 2012, 12:17:48 PM

Where do you think R-M269 originated?

I have no idea, but all I can say is that based on the data from Myres et al(2010) the variance for various paragroups shows the following pattern:

Paragroup----------------More variance======================>Least variance

R1b-M269(xL23) (n=30)---------Europe (n=17, var=0.2706)--------West Asia(n=13, var=0.2385)

R1b-L23(xM412) (n=210)--------Caucasus(n=32, var=0.3063)-------Anatolia(n=58, var=0.2828)---Western Europe(n=29, var=0.2759)---Eastern Europe(n=57,var=0.2070)-------Central Asia(n=34, var=0.1029)

R1b-M412(xL11) (n=14), 13 haplotypes are found European, only 1-found in Turkey, so I have no way of comparing variance.

R1b-L11(xS116,U106) (n=23) all found in Europe.

R1b-M269(xL23) is very significant in the Western Balkans, R1b-L23(xL51) is very significant in Northeastern Caucasus, and also Turkey. It is also significant in Bashkirs, but it has very low variance, which leads me to believe that it is very recent.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 08, 2012, 12:46:24 PM
Is anybody in touch with the Romanian (by descent anyway) guy who used to post as Alexandromir on DNA-Forums?  Kit #149471 at FTDNA.  My only direct contact with him was via PM there, in January.  He had plans (and funding) to do a substantial amount of "Carpathian" DNA sampling this summer, mainly in Romania, and maybe Hungary.

His kit is in the FTDNA Romania project (http://www.familytreedna.com/public/romania (http://www.familytreedna.com/public/romania)), so the admins should be able to email him.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 08, 2012, 12:48:48 PM
... R1b-M269(xL23) is very significant in the Western Balkans, R1b-L23(xL51) is very significant in Northeastern Caucasus, and also Turkey. It is also significant in Bashkirs, but it has very low variance, which leads me to believe that it is very recent.  

I'll point to an earlier reply.  L23xL11 seems to have significantly more diversity  in the eastern half of Europe + SW Asia than the western side - it looks like about 50% greater.  The below is using a decent sized set of STRs including with Heinila's "linear" ones broken out.

These are very broad numbers so this is just for an initial look.
...
 I just used the east/west divide as everything east of Germany, Austria, Cisalpine Gaul in the "east."  I included the Italian peninsula in the east, though, what I call the East Mediterranean. (EDIT: To be clear, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Scandinavia/Finland and N. Italy are in the "west" in my broad categories)

On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.50 [Linear 36]  (N=181)   
L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.53 [Mixed 49]  (N=181)   

L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)   

L23xL11 West________:  Var=0.97 [Linear 36]  (N=38)   
L23xL11 West________:  Var=1.13 [Mixed 49]  (N=38)   


SW Asia itself is pulling the "East" diversity higher.  Although the differences are not as great - maybe out 10% higher so perhaps just coincidentally higher.


L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.73 [Mixed 49]  (N=96)   
L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.76 [Linear 36]  (N=96)


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 08, 2012, 01:01:18 PM

I don't think we find much of the L11 downstream types there. I don't know.  I see some U152 and U106 in Romania.

http://www.familytreedna.com/public/Romania/default.aspx?section=yresults
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/bulgariandna/default.aspx?section=yresults
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/ArmeniaDNAProject/default.aspx?section=yresults
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/turkey/default.aspx?section=yresults


I was hoping more for data on paragroups R1b-M269(xL23), R1b-L23(xL51), and L1b-L51(xL11).

As for Romania, and Hungary, I have the data from Myres et al(2010) for both of those places. I have no data however for Bulgaria, or Turkish Thrace, or Eastern Greece.

Romania(n=330)

R1b-M269+ 40
R1b-M269(xL23) 9
R1b-ML23(xL51) 15
R1b-L51(xL11) 0
R1b-L11(xP312,U106) 0
R1b-U106(xU198) 4
R1b-U198 0
R1b-P312(xL21,U152) 4
R1b-L21(xM222) 2
R1b-M222 0
R1b-U152 6

Hungary(n=113)

R1b-M269+ 23
R1b-M269(xL23) 1
R1b-ML23(xL51) 7
R1b-L51(xL11) 1
R1b-L11(xP312,U106) 0
R1b-U106(xU198) 4
R1b-U198 0
R1b-P312(xL21,U152) 5
R1b-L21(xM222) 1
R1b-M222 0
R1b-U152 4



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 08, 2012, 01:02:28 PM
... On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

....
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)


SW Asia itself is pulling the "East" diversity higher.  Although the differences are not as great - maybe out 10% higher so perhaps just coincidentally higher.


L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.73 [Mixed 49]  (N=96)   
L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.76 [Linear 36]  (N=96)


Well, on second thought I'm not sure the difference is insignificant between East Europe and SW Asia.  I broke out out Europe versus SW Asia from "East" so we could see the difference.

L23xL11 E Europe____:  Var=1.15 [Mixed 49]  (N=35)
L23xL11 E Europe____:  Var=1.08 [Linear 36]  (N=35)  


Then number of haplotypes is getting lower, 35, towards the danger zone, 25, but usually that has been good enough for consistent results.

I think SW Asia has significantly higher diversity than Eastern Europe.  Still, this is just a preliminary look. Nothing conclusive.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 08, 2012, 01:09:14 PM

I'll point to an earlier reply.  L23xL11 seems to have significantly more diversity  in the eastern half of Europe + SW Asia than the western side - it looks like about 50% greater.  The below is using a decent sized set of STRs including with Heinila's "linear" ones broken out.

These are very broad numbers so this is just for an initial look.
...
 I just used the east/west divide as everything east of Germany, Austria, Cisalpine Gaul in the "east."  I included the Italian peninsula in the east, though, what I call the East Mediterranean. (EDIT: To be clear, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Scandinavia/Finland and N. Italy are in the "west" in my broad categories)

On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.50 [Linear 36]  (N=181)   
L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.53 [Mixed 49]  (N=181)   

L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)   

L23xL11 West________:  Var=0.97 [Linear 36]  (N=38)   
L23xL11 West________:  Var=1.13 [Mixed 49]  (N=38)   


Well that kind of contradicts the results of Myres et al(2010), where Western Europe(i.e n=29, var=0.2759) has more variance on L23(xL51) than Eastern Europe(i.e. n=57, var=0.2070). Moreover your sample size for Western Europe isn’t significantly greater than Myres et al(2010) (i.e. n=29). Also, why are you sampling together Eastern Europe with SW Asia? In any case, I’m sorry, but I’ll take the data collected randomly from studies over the data on the FTDNA projects any day. I don’t know why the discrepancy is arising, but certainly something is off here, when Eastern Europe has more variance than Western Europe on FTDNA Projects, but on the Myres et al(2010) study the opposite is the case.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 08, 2012, 01:17:00 PM
Mike, if Western European R-L23 has generated all the European subclades and the Middle Eastern one nothing (but of course amongst them there are some subclades, which wouldn’t permit, after having been individuated, to put all them together), it is clear that they have more variance, but it doesn’t demonstrate anything.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 08, 2012, 01:28:09 PM

I'll point to an earlier reply.  L23xL11 seems to have significantly more diversity  in the eastern half of Europe + SW Asia than the western side - it looks like about 50% greater.  The below is using a decent sized set of STRs including with Heinila's "linear" ones broken out.

These are very broad numbers so this is just for an initial look.
...
 I just used the east/west divide as everything east of Germany, Austria, Cisalpine Gaul in the "east."  I included the Italian peninsula in the east, though, what I call the East Mediterranean. (EDIT: To be clear, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Scandinavia/Finland and N. Italy are in the "west" in my broad categories)

On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.50 [Linear 36]  (N=181)   
L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.53 [Mixed 49]  (N=181)   

L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)   

L23xL11 West________:  Var=0.97 [Linear 36]  (N=38)   
L23xL11 West________:  Var=1.13 [Mixed 49]  (N=38)   


Well that kind of contradicts the results of Myres et al(2010), where Western Europe(i.e var=0.2759) has more variance on L23(xL51) than Eastern Europe(i.e. var=0.2070).

Not kind of, it does contradict what data you are tabulating from Myres.  You saw my comments earlier on those variances you calculated. 10 STRs is not enough to be reliable.  You once commented that you thought my criticism of Busby's methods were unbalanced versus Myres and Balaresque.  No, actually I think the Myres and Barlaresque data is way too limiting also.  Not enough STRs.  Those variance calculations based on 10 STRs are highly suspect.

Many people think my calculations based on 49 non-multicopy/non-null markers and on 36 "linear" markers are suspect.  I think they are right! to be suspicious, particularly on geographically based categories.  However, 10 STRs is just way too few.  10 could be enough, but this is the problem - An aberration or two in the data or STR behavior can provide inconsistent results.

Moreover your sample size for Western Europe isn’t significantly greater than Myres et al(2010) (i.e. n=29). Also, why are you sampling together Eastern Europe with SW Asia?

I just threw them together to get the number of haplotypes up and evaluate the general east vs west.  No matter, as you can see, I broke SW Asia out and just broke out East Europe (earlier today) as well now.  All of the data is posted on the P312 Yahoo Group.  I want people to tear into it so have a go. I think all of the R1b L11- data is from FTDNA, no Ysearch (except what Mac.. gave me), which I think the academics use occasionally.  I have no pet theories.  I was happy being a Cro-Magnon man. Being a Beaker guy is okay too and there is nothing wrong with a Cucuteni-Tripolye or Iranian farmer.

In any case, I’m sorry, but I’ll take the data collected randomly from studies over the data on the FTDNA projects any day. I don’t know why the discrepancy is arising, but certainly something is off here, when Eastern Europe has more variance than Western Europe on FTDNA Projects, but on the Myres et al(2010) study the opposite is the case.  

Let me paraphrase Dienekes..  He's said "STRs s%#$k".  I'll go with "not enough STRs s%#$k." The academics' use of short haplotypes is disappointing, to say the least.

Sample the data anyway you want.  The academics are getting better about use the greater depth of SNP results, but are still way behind with their use of short haplotypes.

I know enough about market demographics and statistics to tell you that we do not have a good cross-sectional randomly selected sample, period.  The academics don't. No one does. It's not anyone's fault. It just takes money.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 08, 2012, 01:50:42 PM
Mike, if Western European R-L23 has generated all the European subclades
Can I disagree on a nuance?  Western European R-L11 has generated the bulk of the European R1b.

... and the Middle Eastern one nothing (but of course amongst them there are some subclades, which wouldn’t permit, after having been individuated, to put all them together), it is clear that they have more variance, but it doesn’t demonstrate anything.

I agree with you, I've demonstrated or proven nothing. I've just provided a few more puzzle pieces to consider.

The SW Asian R-L23 did produce descendants.... but at least the ones that stayed home (if it was home) had a tough time of it.  Struggling with one civilization after another in the Near East apparently was dangerous work.  On the other hand, packing up your tools and cattle and heading into the "backwards" (less advanced) territories of Europe may have been easier.  Perhaps the Italian Peninsula was a rough place too, but Cisalpine and Transalpine Gaul may have had greener grass.  The Isles, Amorica and Iberia may have been a picnic (or place of last refuge.)


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 08, 2012, 03:07:02 PM
Mikewww writes: “Can I disagree on a nuance?” Yes, of course. You never offended me as someone is doing. You are expressing an idea and I have expressed another one. We both know that next proofs will decide who is right and who is wrong.

“Western European R-L11 has generated the bulk of the European R1”.
Yes, but from which L-51 was generated L-11? It seems clear that it was an European one (Italy or France, we are here and not elsewhere). And which R-L23 generated L-11? I think it is more likely to think to an European one. Why if it was an Eastern one, it didn’t generate it in Middle East?
Has European R-L23 come from Middle East? Perhaps, but which proofs have you? Are you sure that there was an R-L23 in Middle East when it was certainly in Europe if it generated here L11? Where are the proofs? It is all supposed, based on nothing. We shall see. Now we have an R1b1b2* (at least) in Europe 4600 years ago. Where is a similar sample in Middle East? Why who is testing ancient bones there doesn’t publish his results?
Look at the last paper on mtDNA I published on its thread. Times are more ancient than you are thinking, very more ancient.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 08, 2012, 03:21:54 PM
I was happy being a Cro-Magnon man. Being a Beaker guy is okay too and there is nothing wrong with a Cucuteni-Tripolye or Iranian farmer.

Well, I don't know about you, but I am neither a Cro-Magnon, nor a Beaker, nor anything else kind of guy. I'm an american, and that's about it. I definitely would like to know about European prehistory, as it is the place where my folks came from. However, that doesn't mean that if my folks came from Antartica 8000 years ago, I would commit suicide. On the contrary, I would then try to find out how my folks lived in Antartica 8000 ago.


I know enough about market demographics and statistics to tell you that we do not have a good cross-sectional randomly selected sample, period.  The academics don't. No one does. It's not anyone's fault. It just takes money.

What I care for the most, is consistency. Even if 10 STRs are used, if R1b-M269(xL23) consistently comes out with higher variance in x place, then chances are, they can’t all be flukes, especially if they are different randomly collected samples.  For example:

How do I know Basques are 80%+ R1b?

Because in multiple studies they have appeared as 80%+ R1b.

Do you know how many Basque folk have been studied?

Probably less than 2000, that isn’t even remotely close to half of a percent of the Basque population!

Why do I assert that ethnic Basques are 80%+R1b?

Because I trust that if multiple randomly collected samples of ethnic Basque yielded 80%+R1b, then it is very likely that it will be 80%+ in all the population.

The first big no-no when analyzing FTDNA should be, that the Basque DNA Project data used by folks like Klyosov was highly distinctive(R1b too low, E3b too high, J too high, even Q1a3a is found there) from what has been observed in academia(At least last time I checked).


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 08, 2012, 03:35:58 PM
Mikewww writes: “Can I disagree on a nuance?” Yes, of course. You never offended me as someone is doing. You are expressing an idea and I have expressed another one. We both know that next proofs will decide who is right and who is wrong.

Thank you. I appreciate that.  I hope you see that I don't really care who is right or who is wrong, I just want to know what is right... what really happened.

“Western European R-L11 has generated the bulk of the European R1”.
Yes, but from which L-51 was generated L-11?

This is a difficult challenge. We do not what the ancestral alleles were for the L51 that generated L11. My guess is that they had 426=12, rather than 13, since L23 has 426=12 and L11 has 426=12 as do P312 and U106. I surmise that the L51 remnants we see today were there of a different branch than L11's ancestors.

It seem clear that it was an European one (Italy or France, we are here and not elsewhere).  

Why is that clear?  I'm not in Europe. I'm in Texas, but I'm pretty sure my ancestors came from Ireland and before that, possibly Wales.  People are mobile and we are talking about thousands of years of opportunity.

And which R-L23 generated L-11? I think it is more likely to think to an European one. Why if it was an Eastern one, it didn’t generate it in Middle East?

I don't know. The R-L11's L51* brothers may be gone, not able to survive.  A very, very high percentage of Y lineages go extinct. This should not be viewed as unusual.

Has European R-L23 come from Middle East? Perhaps, but which proofs have you? Are you sure that there was an R-L23 in Middle East when it was certainly in Europe if it generated here L11? Where are the proofs? It is all supposed, based on nothing.

As I've said, I have no proof, but the population genetics scientists use the phylogenetic tree positioning and diversity as a mechanisms to track migrations.  If L23xL11 is much more diverse than L11, and if L23xL11 is more diverse in SW Asia than in Europe, that's just the data we have. It could be red herring, but it might be instructive.

We shall see. Now we have an R1b1b2* (at least) in Europe 4600 years ago. Where is a similar sample in Middle East? Why who is testing ancient bones there doesn’t publish his results?  

We probably don't have more ancient DNA tested in the Near East because it costs money, there are government approvals and controls, logistics, and difficulties (i.e. wars) that may make this a bit of a challenge.  Perhaps we do have aDNA from the Near East in the way of King Tut. It isn't being released (um... governments) so it is not "official" but the indications are there.  There probably isn't that much R1b to found in the Near East anyway.  As I've said, it may have been a tough place to survive in.

Look at the last paper on mtDNA I published on its thread. Times are more ancient than you are thinking, very more ancient.  

Paternal lineages do not align very well with maternal lineages. This very easy to see just by looking at Y and mt haplogroup distribution maps.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 08, 2012, 03:53:59 PM
I was happy being a Cro-Magnon man. Being a Beaker guy is okay too and there is nothing wrong with a Cucuteni-Tripolye or Iranian farmer.

Well, I don't know about you, but I am neither a Cro-Magnon, nor a Beaker, nor anything else kind of guy. I'm an american, and that's about it.

Okay, you are quite correct. I should have been more articulate in explaining I was happy thinking my deep paternal ancestry was of a Cro-Magnon type, or farmer, or plains man, or whatever, etc.  You might have to read between the lines, but all I was communicating was I don't care which ancestry it was, I'm just curious to know the truth.


I know enough about market demographics and statistics to tell you that we do not have a good cross-sectional randomly selected sample, period.  The academics don't. No one does. It's not anyone's fault. It just takes money.

How do I know Basques are 80%+ R1b?
Because in multiple studies they have appeared as 80%+ R1b.

Do you know how many Basque folk have been studied?
Probably less than 2000, that isn’t even remotely close to half of a percent of the Basque population!

Why do I assert that ethnic Basques are 80%+R1b?
Because I trust that if multiple randomly collected samples of ethnic Basque yielded 80%+R1b, then it is very likely that it will be 80%+ in all the population.

The first big no-no when analyzing FTDNA should be, that the Basque DNA Project data used by folks like Klyosov was highly distinctive(R1b too low, E3b too high, J too high, even Q1a3a is found there) from what has been observed in academia(At least last time I checked).

I'm not at all saying the FTDNA data is adequately representative of Eurasia. I've never declared or attempted to do scientific sampling of their data.  We just don't have enough data in the non-Isles areas, period.  The academics try to assemble the data, but end up cobbling it together and treating it inconsistently in the process... all the while some regions are just plain sorely under-represented.

Do you really have that same level of trust that all of the ethnicities of Kosovo have been as randomly, comprehensively scientifically sampled as the Basques?  What about all of old Yugoslavian territories and all of the Balkan Peninsula?

How about Iran or Moldavia?  These are multi-ethnic countries with a variety of terrains and history.  Sampling multi-ethnic territories requires a different standard that sampling an isolated, surviving culture like the Basques.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 08, 2012, 04:00:43 PM
Mikeww writes: “We probably don't have more ancient DNA tested in the Near East because it costs money”.

From a letter of W. Hurst of the mtDNA K project at FTDNA:

Hi all,
As previously announced, there is a new scientific paper by Behar et al. (2012b) that transmitted 4,265 mtDNA full sequences to the GenBank database, with 4,222 of those sequences coming from FTDNA customers [tested again like clones by the Molecular Medicine Laboratory, Rambam Health Care Campus, Efron 9 st, Haifa 31096, Israel] who had previously consented to their use for science. Of those sequences, 460 were from haplogroup K, mostly from members of our K Project. All of the sequences were simultaneously used to create new and revised subclades on Build 14 of the PhyloTree. Eventually, FTDNA will change members’ subclade designations where appropriate […]


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Humanist on May 08, 2012, 04:04:02 PM
Is anybody in touch with the Romanian (by descent anyway) guy who used to post as Alexandromir on DNA-Forums?  Kit #149471 at FTDNA.  My only direct contact with him was via PM there, in January.  He had plans (and funding) to do a substantial amount of "Carpathian" DNA sampling this summer, mainly in Romania, and maybe Hungary.

I sent him a pm, with a link to this thread.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 08, 2012, 04:42:50 PM
What I care for the most, is consistency. Even if 10 STRs are used, if R1b-M269(xL23) consistently comes out with higher variance in x place, then chances are, they can’t all be flukes, especially if they are different randomly collected samples.

Remember, in your R-L23* examples one group was only of 13 people and the other of 17 people. 10 of the 13 people in that group were all from Turkey so that wasn't very representative.

13 people with 10 STRs to represent all of SW Asia???

I'm glad you think that consistency has become more important.  Back on the Busby article "The peopling..." thread I had been complaining about how Busby (and for that matter I think Myres and Balaresque too to some extent) treated the data by region inconsistently you replied...
http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10031.msg129923#msg129923
...
Of course it seems right that the Irish “resampled” variance is higher than it was on the Balaresque et al. sample, in fact, is not a question whether it should be higher or lower, it is a question whether it is more accurate  or not? My answer: yes it is by far more accurate as they actually took the time to resample 10000 random sets.

I agree that consistency is an element of accuracy which is why I don't think data by region should be treated different by region. There is a need for scientific design for the sampling process, one that can be cross-sectionally checked.

I agree that accuracy is needed.  If a result can't be repeated with consistency then we know at least some of the results are inaccurate.  Accuracy also requires precision, at least some.   There is little precision in 10 STRs.   I can start to get consistent, correlated (with phylogenetic tree) variance results when using over 25 STRs and over 25 haplotypes.

I think we could go back and forth on variance so let's do that over on the STR wars thread if you want to. People reading this thread probably have enough info to decide how to consider the data. So out of courtesy for others..


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 08, 2012, 04:47:30 PM
Mikeww writes: “We probably don't have more ancient DNA tested in the Near East because it costs money”.

From a letter of W. Hurst of the mtDNA K project at FTDNA:
Hi all,
As previously announced, there is a new scientific paper by Behar et al. (2012b) that transmitted 4,265 mtDNA full sequences to the GenBank database, with 4,222 of those sequences coming from FTDNA customers ....

That's great stuff but what does it have to do with ancient DNA?  I think they are talking about current FTDNA customer samples.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 08, 2012, 05:05:59 PM
I'm not at all saying the FTDNA data is adequately representative of Eurasia. I've never declared or attempted to do scientific sampling of their data.  We just don't have enough data in the non-Isles areas, period.  The academics try to assemble the data, but end up cobbling it together and treating it inconsistently in the process... all the while some regions are just plain sorely under-represented.

Do you really have that same level of trust that all of the ethnicities of Kosovo have been as randomly, comprehensively scientifically sampled as the Basques?  What about all of old Yugoslavian territories and all of the Balkan Peninsula?

How about Iran or Moldavia?  These are multi-ethnic countries with a variety of terrains and history.  Sampling multi-ethnic territories requires a different standard that sampling an isolated, surviving culture like the Basques.

Well I’m not sure, I work with what I got, and like I said, I trust the randomly collected samples of scientific studies a lot more than the project at FTDNA. You can agree or disagree with that, all I’m saying is my opinion.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 08, 2012, 05:17:15 PM
Remember, in your R-L23* examples one group was only of 13 people and the other of 17 people. 10 of the 13 people in that group were all from Turkey so that wasn't very representative.

13 people with 10 STRs to represent all of SW Asia???

That wasn’t L23*, but M269*, and M269* is very scarce, in fact the sample size of Myres et al(2010) was 10355, out of those 2043 were R1b-M269+, out of those only 80 were R1b-M269(xL23). If you find a bigger sample size than that from randomly collected data, you are more than welcome to bring it forward as new data.

I'm glad you think that consistency has become more important.  Back on the Busby article "The peopling..." thread I had been complaining about how Busby (and for that matter I think Myres and Balaresque too to some extent) treated the data by region inconsistently you replied...
http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10031.msg129923#msg129923
...
Of course it seems right that the Irish “resampled” variance is higher than it was on the Balaresque et al. sample, in fact, is not a question whether it should be higher or lower, it is a question whether it is more accurate  or not? My answer: yes it is by far more accurate as they actually took the time to resample 10000 random sets.

We have been over this multiple times before, there wasn’t any inconsistency in the Busby et al process, well there was if you consider that what Balaresque did was also inconsistent. That they only sampled 75 haplotypes at random out of a database of 800+ Irish haplotypes, is fine. They did this process 10000 times, and  took the average observed variance in the 10000 samples.  If you sample 75 random haplotypes in dataset that are of 100 people, you will more often than not, get absolutely no variance, hence why the random sampling was only applied to populations that had too many haplotypes(i.e. The Irish)

I agree that consistency is an element of accuracy which is why I don't think data by region should be treated different by region. There is a need for scientific design for the sampling process, one that can be cross-sectionally checked.

I agree that accuracy is needed.  If a result can't be repeated with consistency then we know at least some of the results are inaccurate.  Accuracy also requires precision, at least some.   There is little precision in 10 STRs.   I can start to get consistent, correlated (with phylogenetic tree) variance results when using over 25 STRs and over 25 haplotypes.

I think we could go back and forth on variance so let's do that over on the STR wars thread if you want to. People reading this thread probably have enough info to decide how to consider the data. So out of courtesy for others..


As for variance, I think it should go in here, because the data of the variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is vital to the origin of R-L23. As for the precision of 10 STRs, I can tell you, that if those were 10 STRs with slow mutation rates, then the precision would likely be far higher than a set of 36 STRs, if and only if, the TMRCA of the set being analyzed is greater than 2000 ybp.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 08, 2012, 05:20:29 PM

R1 is likely Central Aisian. R1b-M343 is probably less than 18k ybp and by the time we get to R1b-M269, folks like FTDNA's Mike Hammers are saying 4-8K ybp.  If we find M269xL23 in SW Asia and we see V88 splitting off into Africa, then we are setting the logical base for an east to west expansion/migration at some time.  This is where the missing links appear (or don't appear) - from SW Asia to Western Europe.

Well aDNA now sets the earliest date of R1b-M269 in Europe to 4500 ybp, as for R1b-M269xL23, it is found in Europe too. Per Myres et al(2010) R1b-M269(xL23) is found as follows:

Germany (n=274) 1.09%  (2.13% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Switzerland (n=175) 1.14% (2.17% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Slovenia (n=102) 0.98% (5.55% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Poland (n=202) 0.495% (4% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Hungary (n=113) 0.88% (4.35% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Russia (n=1037) 0.289% (6% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Ukraine (n=504) 0.198% (3.45%  of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Bashkirs (n=586) 1.706% (5.24% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Bosnia (n=78) 1.282% (100% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Serbia (n=113) 4.42% (45.45% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Herzegovina (n=141) 1.418% (50% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Macedonia (n=79) 5.063% (100% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Kosovo(n=114) 7.89% (37.5% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Romania(n=330) 2.727% (22.5% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Italy (n=282) 1.063% (2.86% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Greece (n=185) 1.081% (8.33% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Crete(n=193) 2.072% (12.12% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Northeast Caucasus* (n=374) 0.535% (3.45% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

*R1b-M269(xL23) is only found in Lezgis (n=31) with a frequency of 3.225% (20% of all R1b-M269+ in sample) , and Tabasarans (n=43) with a frequency of 2.325% (5.88% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)      .

Northwest Caucasus (n=695) 0% (0% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

South Caucasus (n=278) 0% (0% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Central Asia-Pakistan and Kazakhstan (n=199) 0% (0% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Jordan (n=222) 0.45% (12.5% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Iran (n=150) 2.667% (33.33% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Turkey (n=611) 1.963% (13.19% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Here is the variance calculation for R1b-M269(xL23) from Myres et al(2010), unfortunately they did not sample the 10 STRs for many of the Balkan populations which are relatively rich in R1b-M269(xL23). (A total of 21 haplotypes of R1b-M269(xL23) weren’t tested for the 10 STRs 1 from Bosnia, 5 from Serbia, 2 from Herzegovina, 4 from Macedonia, 9 from Kosovo).

The European R1b-M269(xL23) 10 STR sample consist of:

Romania-5
Italy-3,
Greece-2, 
Germany-2,
Switzerland-2
Hungary-1
Poland-1
Slovenia-1
Germany-1*


*The authors did include all the German haplotypes, however I did not include 1 in my calculations due to the fact that it was missing the value for DYS19.

European R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes that were not included in sample are:

Kosovo-9
Serbia-5
Macedonia-4
Russia-3
Herzegovina-2
Bosnia-1
Ukraine-1


The West Asian R1b-M269(xL23) 10 STRs sample consist of:

Turkey-10
Iran-1
Tasabaran-1
Bashkirs-1


West Asian R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes that were not included in sample are:

Jordan-1
Iran-3
Turkey-2
Lezgis-2
Bashkirs-9



Anyhow the variance of R1b-M269(xL23) using 10 STRs is as follows:

Europe (n=17) 0.2706

West Asia (n=13) 0.2385

It seems that R1b-M269(xL23) has more variance in Europe than in West Asia, at least for the Myres et al(2010) dataset. 

Anyone's got any info about the variance of R1b-M269(xL23) in the Balkans. I wish Myres et al(2010) would have included the 21 Balkanic sequences that were left out, as to do a comparison of Balkans vs.West Asia. I have a feeling that the Western Balkans(i.e. Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia) would have a high variance for R1b-M269(xL23).

Very interesting to see M269* as a proportion of all M269 on a region by region basis. It puts it in a different light.  You could say its down to historic period movements fro Turkey etc but if so then why is so much of it M269*, far higher a proportion than in Turkey.  Very interesting.  


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 08, 2012, 05:22:48 PM
All I can say is that in the following subset of Europeans:

Romania-5
Italy-3,
Greece-2, 
Germany-2,
Switzerland-2
Hungary-1
Poland-1
Slovenia-1


The variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is 0.2706.

While on the following subset of West Asians:

Turkey-10
Iran-1
Tasabaran-1
Bashkirs-1


The variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is 0.2385

What I found interesting was how significant R1b-M269(xL23) is in the Western Balkans as a percentage of all R1b-M269 found there:

Western Balkans (n=633)

R1b-M269+ 58/633 or 9.16%

R1b-M269(xL23) 21/633 or 3.32%

R1b-M269(xL23) as a percentage of all R1b-M269+ 21/58 or 36.21%

For the record this is the distribution of the 21 R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes in the Western Balkans:

Kosovo-9
Serbia-5
Macedonia-4
Herzegovina-2
Bosnia-1




Very very interesting Jean.  Thank you for that. 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 08, 2012, 06:39:03 PM
I think this all demonstrates how little we still really know for sure about M269 upstream of L11 and how it is still a pretty open question in terms of origin. 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 08, 2012, 10:23:05 PM
Is anybody in touch with the Romanian (by descent anyway) guy who used to post as Alexandromir on DNA-Forums?  Kit #149471 at FTDNA.  My only direct contact with him was via PM there, in January.  He had plans (and funding) to do a substantial amount of "Carpathian" DNA sampling this summer, mainly in Romania, and maybe Hungary.
You may see if the Helpdesk at FtDNA will send him a contact info message and see if he will reply.

MJost


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 09, 2012, 12:10:28 AM
Remember, in your R-L23* examples one group was only of 13 people and the other of 17 people. 10 of the 13 people in that group were all from Turkey so that wasn't very representative.

13 people with 10 STRs to represent all of SW Asia???

That wasn’t L23*, but M269*, and M269* is very scarce, in fact the sample size of Myres et al(2010) was 10355, out of those 2043 were R1b-M269+, out of those only 80 were R1b-M269(xL23). If you find a bigger sample size than that from randomly collected data, you are more than welcome to bring it forward as new data.

I apologize for mis-writing it as L23*.   The net is still 13 people with 10 STRs is not enough to even speculate much about on R-M269*.

We have been over this multiple times before, there wasn’t any inconsistency in the Busby et al process, well there was if you consider that what Balaresque did was also inconsistent. ...

I don't defend either Barlaresque or Busby for their limited data analysis.

What are you saying? ....  If we consider Barlaresque was inconsistent then we should consider that Busby's inconsistency was really consistent?   You should run for office.

As for variance, I think it should go in here, because the data of the variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is vital to the origin of R-L23. As for the precision of 10 STRs, I can tell you, that if those were 10 STRs with slow mutation rates, then the precision would likely be far higher than a set of 36 STRs, if and only if, the TMRCA of the set being analyzed is greater than 2000 ybp.

If those 10 STRs?  If?

Those 36 STRs were actually run through an analysis by Marko Heinila with tens of thousands of haplotypes.   What 10 STRs did you select and what is the analysis of their linear duration?  Even according to Busby?  We know the answer.  They had slim picking in the first place.  It's not their fault. It's just 10 STRs is not enough.  I can show you runs where you take just 10 STRs, subtract one and the answer will be different than if you add one, or add a few odd haplotypes.  Why do you  think Busby and Barlaresque disagree?   They looked at the data differently.  There was not a enough depth in testing to show clarity.

It matters not if you have enough experiments (STRs.) You can use the 36 linear STRs or the 49 mixed speed ones. It makes little difference.   I've showed you that.  You pick.  The 36 are generally the slower ones.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 09, 2012, 12:13:18 AM
I think this all demonstrates how little we still really know for sure about M269 upstream of L11 and how it is still a pretty open question in terms of origin. 

Just because there is disagreement, doesn't mean we don't have useful information.

However, the data upstream of L11 and even L11* itself is generally pretty light and pretty scattered so in general I agree that upgrade of L11 we don't have too much to go one.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 09, 2012, 01:17:22 AM
I don't defend either Barlaresque or Busby for their limited data analysis.

What are you saying? ....  If we consider Barlaresque was inconsistent then we should consider that Busby's inconsistency was really consistent?   You should run for office.

No, I'm not into politics, thank you. We have been over this multiple times before. Busby et al(2012) did a re-analysis of the data provided by Balaresque et al(2010) in one of their Supplementary files. Once more, even if what they did was inconsistent or erroneous, that was on the supplementary file and doesn't invalidate the results from the other dataset which are provided in the main study. Nonetheless I would say that Balaresque et al. is far more limited than Busby et al., because Balaresque didn’t even bother to sample the R1b-M269 subclades, and used only 9 STRs.


If those 10 STRs?  If?

Those 36 STRs were actually run through an analysis by Marko Heinila with tens of thousands of haplotypes.   What 10 STRs did you select and what is the analysis of their linear duration?  Even according to Busby?  We know the answer.  They had slim picking in the first place.  It's not their fault. It's just 10 STRs is not enough.  I can show you runs where you take just 10 STRs, subtract one and the answer will be different than if you add one, or add a few odd haplotypes.  Why do you  think Busby and Barlaresque disagree?   They looked at the data differently.  There was not a enough depth in testing to show clarity.

It matters not if you have enough experiments (STRs.) You can use the 36 linear STRs or the 49 mixed speed ones. It makes little difference.   I've showed you that.  You pick.  The 36 are generally the slower ones.


Look, I mentioned that it is not the number of STRs, but their relative mutation rates. I never said that those 10 STRs were slow or fast ones, they are a mixed set, and anyone who has read Myres et al. knows it.  Look the 36 linear vs. 49 mixed STRs sets do make a difference, the only reason why you don’t see a difference when using 36 linear vs.49 mixed, is because many of the linear STRs have mutation rates that aren’t so linear. Here: Why don’t you do something, run the following set of 19 linear STRs:

DYS426, DYS447, DYS590, DYS641, DYS472, DYS425, DYS436, DYS490, DYS450, DYS617, DYS492, DYF395S1b, DYS455, DYS388, DYS392, DYS438, DYS578, DYS448, DYS454

Then compare the variance values of West Europe vs. SW Asia using only those 19 STRs, and then using the 49 mixed STRs. 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 09, 2012, 02:46:37 AM
In the ht35 Project there are 28 haplotypes that are R1b-M269(xL23).

 http://www.familytreedna.com/public/ht35new/default.aspx?section=yresults (http://www.familytreedna.com/public/ht35new/default.aspx?section=yresults)

Out of the 28 haplotypes, 18 have 67 STRs available.

There are 12 with known European origin:

Italy-5
Ukraine-3
Belarus-2
Poland-1
France-1


There are 5 with known SW Asian origin:

Turkey-3
Syria-1
Armenia-1


For what it is worth:

R1b-M269(xL23) using 67 STRs

Europe (n=12, var=0.2512)

SW Asia (n=5, var=0.1642)

Now there are 23 haplotypes typed for 37 STRs. Out of those 1-Italian has some uncertainty in the STR values, so I didn't included.

Now there are 15 with known European origin:

Italy-6
Ukraine-4
Belarus-2
Poland-1
France-1
UK-1


There are 7 with known SW Asian origin:

Turkey-4
Syria-1
Armenia-1
Kazakhstan-1


For what it is worth:

R1b-M269(xL23) using 37 STRs

Europe (n=15, var=0.3189)

SW Asia (n=7, var=0.2857)

This is in agreement with the data from Myres et al(2010) where

R1b-M269(xL23) using 10 STRs

Europe (n=17, var=0.2706)

SW Asia (n=13, var=0.2385)

One can argue that the sample sizes are rather small, but it is all we got now both from the hobbyist community and Academic studies. In both cases using 10, 37, or 67 STRs the paragroup R1b-M269(xL23) has consistently more variance in Europe than outside of it.






Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 09, 2012, 05:37:01 AM
JeanL writes: “Out of those 1-Italian has some uncertainty in the STR values, so I didn't included”.

I have spoken a lot of the case of Mangino (actually the Tuscan Mancini from Monticiano in Siena province). I wrote many times also to Vincent Vizachero some years ago. He is put amongst the R-M269* because tested for this SNP by FTDNA, but his markers values are clearly close to the European R1b1* and he could be of an intermediate SNP between R1b1 and R1b1a2, not being M269 probably the last. I asked many times to test him again for M269 and more for a WTY I have contributed to pay. No answer. And the letters sent to him probably never arrived. Now his surname is also withhold. I think he is, amongst many others, one of the strongest proofs in favour of my Italian Refugium of R1b1* and subclades. I have always in mind to collect the YDNA from some relatives he has in Tuscany and test it elsewhere.   


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 09, 2012, 05:43:02 AM
European variance of R-M269 is higher now because I made LoPiccolo put amongst them, after many letters and many attempts done by others to put him amongst the R-L23/L584+?
I'd want you note that Italians belong to the cluster YCAII=17-23, which I presuppose derived from an R1b1 with YCAII=18-23 (Italy gets also the 18-22 values) and that the last Mutation Rate for YCAIIa is 0,000496 (MarkoH).


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 09, 2012, 06:29:28 AM
Of course you have put amongst the Europeans many Jews, and we should understand which is their origin. Anyway they belong to an unique cluster (and very recent) and should be counted for only 1. Then European variance would be higher and, if you put them amongst the Middle Easterner ones, it would be lower. Practically the most part of Europeans are Italians.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 09, 2012, 08:56:57 AM
Look, I mentioned that it is not the number of STRs, but their relative mutation rates. I never said that those 10 STRs were slow or fast ones, they are a mixed set, and anyone who has read Myres et al. knows it.  Look the 36 linear vs. 49 mixed STRs sets do make a difference, the only reason why you don’t see a difference when using 36 linear vs.49 mixed, is because many of the linear STRs have mutation rates that aren’t so linear. Here: Why don’t you do something, run the following set of 19 linear STRs:

DYS426, DYS447, DYS590, DYS641, DYS472, DYS425, DYS436, DYS490, DYS450, DYS617, DYS492, DYF395S1b, DYS455, DYS388, DYS392, DYS438, DYS578, DYS448, DYS454

Then compare the variance values of West Europe vs. SW Asia using only those 19 STRs, and then using the 49 mixed STRs.  

I have to re-work the spreadsheet to do that.  I'm out trying to collect more P312xL21 data right now.  If I get a chance I'll try this, but I do want to see some justification on why these markers are better. I don't want to waste time. 

It looks like your recommended STR list are just the very slow STRs. Before I started using Heinila's analysis I tried subsets of slow and medium markers like Tim Janzen used to do. I found the relationships between haplogroups erratic. The inconsistency proves that is not reliable, at least with limited haplotype samples.

You are also reducing the precision of your STR composite clock by using only slow STRs. For instance, DYS472 mutates on average only once every 2.5M years... that's milliions of years not thousands. http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.ancestry.com/~geneticgenealogy/ratestuff.htm
Since we are talking about thousands of years, not even tens of thousands, the unit of measure is many times largerr than the maximum time we want to measure. That's like trying to measure minutes by counting days on a calendar. I'm not a brilliant statistician, but you need a lot, a lot data to use a measurement like that usefully.

If you remove more STRs you are reducing the breadth of your experiment which reduces precision as well.

I guess you are saying that you disagree with Marko Heinila's analysis since those 36 "linear" STRs are ones that should work for at least 7000 years.  You have some trust in academic studies. Is there a study that says we should use only slow markers?  The one that I know of made the link of high allele markers (i.e. values like 30) with limited linear duration.  Is there another study that says something different?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 09, 2012, 09:28:55 AM
Of course you have put amongst the Europeans many Jews, and we should understand which is their origin. Anyway they belong to an unique cluster (and very recent) and should be counted for only 1. Then European variance would be higher and, if you put them amongst the Middle Easterner ones, it would be lower. Practically the most part of Europeans are Italians.

I think Maliclavelli has a good point here.  This gets into selective sampling and I don't know the answers on how to do that correctly but this does impact the R-M269xL23 results.  This is the same thing I'm saying about L51xL11.  It appears L51xL11 is really a single clade that we might label the R-L51* 426=13 clade.

In terms of R-M269xL23 part of the extant (surviving) group of people who have DNA tested appears to be a single clade. Most are in the Jewish project so I don't know if they are related or not but that is a consideration....      we have very light and scattered data on M269xL23, similar to the situation with L51xL11, so I don't trust it.


M269xL23____________:  Var=0.71 [Linear 36]  (N=22)
M269xL23____________:  Var=0.99 [Mixed 49]  (N=43)

M269xL23 SW Asia____:  Var=0.26 [Linear 36]  (N=5)
M269xL23 E Europe___:  Var=0.66 [Mixed 49]  (N=5)


M269xL23 E Europe___:  Var=0.66 [Linear 36]  (N=14)
M269xL23 E Europe___:  Var=0.82 [Mixed 49]  (N=14)

M269xL23 W Europe___:  Var=0.46 [Linear 36]  (N=2)  <-- one is from the Jewish project, the other from France   
M269xL23 W Europe___:  Var=0.99 [Mixed 49]  (N=2)    <-- "                "


That's why in replies 59 & 61 I used R-L23xL11 data.  We do have quite a bit of long haplotypes of L23x-L11 and it does show differentiation by region and a significantly greater age than L11, which makes sense.


L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.50 [Linear 36]  (N=181)  
L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.53 [Mixed 49]  (N=181)  

L23xL11 West________:  Var=0.97 [Linear 36]  (N=38)     (West Europe: Scan./Germ./Aus./N.Ita. & West)
L23xL11 West________:  Var=1.13 [Mixed 49]  (N=38)  

L23xL11 E Europe____:  Var=1.15 [Mixed 49]  (N=35)
L23xL11 E Europe____:  Var=1.08 [Linear 36]  (N=35)  

L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.73 [Mixed 49]  (N=96)  
L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.76 [Linear 36]  (N=96)



In the ht35 Project there are 28 haplotypes that are R1b-M269(xL23). ....
One can argue that the sample sizes are rather small

Exactly!  The sample sizes are too small and not representative.   However, please note the counts of 67 STR haplotypes are well above the data we have on L51* or M269*.

Importantly, the M269* sample is dominated by quite probably a single clade with a religious affiliation. Some feel this an endogenous group.  Some say it is from the Rhine Valley.  It very well could be.  Some say it is from the Near East, which is the history of the religion.  It very well could be.

I don't think you can tell much from looking at R-M269xL23.  We need a much more representative sample, which may NOT be available ever since many of the lineages may be extinct.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 09, 2012, 10:54:24 AM

In terms of R-M269xL23 part of the extant (surviving) group of people who have DNA tested appears to be a single clade. Most are in the Jewish project so I don't know if they are related or not but that is a consideration....      we have very light and scattered data on M269xL23, similar to the situation with L51xL11, so I don't trust it.


M269xL23____________:  Var=0.71 [Linear 36]  (N=22)
M269xL23____________:  Var=0.99 [Mixed 49]  (N=43)

M269xL23 SW Asia____:  Var=0.26 [Linear 36]  (N=5)
M269xL23 E Europe___:  Var=0.66 [Mixed 49]  (N=5)


M269xL23 E Europe___:  Var=0.66 [Linear 36]  (N=14)
M269xL23 E Europe___:  Var=0.82 [Mixed 49]  (N=14)

M269xL23 W Europe___:  Var=0.46 [Linear 36]  (N=2)  <-- one is from the Jewish project, the other from France   
M269xL23 W Europe___:  Var=0.99 [Mixed 49]  (N=2)    <-- "                "


Well Mike, you are arguing that my data is very small yet you are using n=2 for West Europe in your calculations from the Jewish sample.  But even in your own data, you still get again that R1b-M269(xL23) has more variance in Europe than in SW Asia. So you can argue that the data is small, and what not. But seeing how in both cases Myres et al(2010), and the ht35 project R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes, Europe is consistently coming out older than SW Asia, regardless if 10, 37 or 67 STRs are used, leads me to believe that the a significant chance that R1b-M269(xL23) might indeed have more variance inside of Europe.

PS: Here is a different comparison for R1b-M269(xL23):

R1b-M269(xL23) 37 STRs from ht35

Italy (n=6, var=0.3378)

Turkey (n=4, var=0.2568)

R1b-M269(xL23) 10 STRs from Myres et al(2010)

W-Europe(n=5,  var=0.2400)

Turkey(n=10), var=0.2100)

W-Europe consist of 3 haplotypes from Italy, and 2 from Switzerland.





Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 09, 2012, 11:48:04 AM

In terms of R-M269xL23 part of the extant (surviving) group of people who have DNA tested appears to be a single clade. Most are in the Jewish project so I don't know if they are related or not but that is a consideration....      we have very light and scattered data on M269xL23, similar to the situation with L51xL11, so I don't trust it.......

Well Mike, you are arguing that my data is very small yet you are using n=2 for West Europe in your calculations from the Jewish sample.  But even in your own data, you still get again that R1b-M269(xL23) has more variance in Europe than in SW Asia. So you can argue that the data is small, and what not. But seeing how in both cases Myres et al(2010), and the ht35 project R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes, Europe is consistently coming out older than SW Asia, regardless if 10, 37 or 67 STRs are used, leads me to believe that the a significant chance that R1b-M269(xL23) might indeed have more variance inside of Europe. ...  

Thank you. You are helping me learn I need to be extremely articulate and cautious in repeating specific labels over and over again.
Perhaps I need to use more bold emphasis markings and colors as well.

In the ht35 Project there are 28 haplotypes that are R1b-M269(xL23). ....
One can argue that the sample sizes are rather small

Exactly!  The sample sizes are too small and not representative.   However, please note the counts of 67 STR haplotypes are well above the data we have on L51* or M269*.
....
I don't think you can tell much from looking at R-M269xL23.  We need a much more representative sample, which may NOT be available ever since many of the lineages may be extinct. ...

Please note the counts of 67 STR haplotypes are well above the data we have on L51* or M269*.
The emboldened "counts of 67 STR haplotypes" was a direct reference to the L23xL11 data where there are many more long haplotypes available.

The emboldened "Exactly! The sample sizes are too small" was a direct reference to the M269xL23 data that you injected into the conversation.  The same applies to the small data set I showed which I only did that to re-emphasize the data sets are too small for M269xL23 and to show that a single clade may be messing that up.

To summarize and be absolutely clear, you said, "Europe is consistently coming out older than SW Asia."  My direct response is "The sample sizes are too small and not representative."  Calculating M269xL23 variance is fairly useless in this analysis.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 09, 2012, 12:12:40 PM
... Here is a different comparison for R1b-M269(xL23):
R1b-M269(xL23) 37 STRs from ht35

Italy (n=6, var=0.3378)

Turkey (n=4, var=0.2568)

Maliclavelli, I think groups of six and four are too small for valid variance calculations...

but I want you to know there are reasons that I think that Italy is a definite consideration as a key role in M343 and/or its descendants expansions/migrations.  I don't know the answers but I am open to your theory.  There are some strange haplotypes out there.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 09, 2012, 12:25:19 PM
The emboldened "Exactly! The sample sizes are too small" was a direct reference to the M269xL23 data that you injected into the conversation.  The same applies to the small data set I showed which I only did that to re-emphasize the data sets are too small for M269xL23 and to show that a single clade may be messing that up.

You can put it any color you want, although I would say I prefer blue over red as it doesn’t burn my eyes. But the fact is, that if as you said there was a single clade that would be messing things up, then how come in two different datasets (Myres et al(2010) and the ht35 project) R1b-M269(xL23) keeps coming out older in Europe than in Western Asia, even when only Italy(n=6) vs. Turkey(n=4) is compared for the ht35 project, or Western Europe(n=5) vs. Turkey(n=10) for the Myres et al(2010) dataset. So I removed 12 clades from the R1b-M269(xL23) European sample of Myres et al(2010), and only left the 5 Western European ones, and removed 3 clades from the West Asian sample and only left Turkey, yet it had no effect in the relative variance, with Europe still coming out with a higher variance then Turkey. What are the chances that  the three different analyses are the results of a fluke? Now, if you now want to regard the variance calculation of R1b-M269(xL23) as useless because it yields somewhat unexpected results, please list the real reason, don’t just say that it is because of the small sample size. Because, if you think those are small sample sizes(Given that the sample sizes used for R1b-M269(xL23) aren't small if one considers how rare this paragroup is.), then I have to say you are applying a clearly biased double standard here sir:

 http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10513.msg129342#msg129342 (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10513.msg129342#msg129342)

Your sample size for R1b-M153 for the 49 mixed non-multicopy STR is 7. While you mentioned that the M153 data is limited, that didn’t stop you from using it, so now you claim that the data I used from the ht 35 project which was Europe(n=15) and SW Asia(n=7) for 37 STR is useless. If that isn't a double standard, then I don't know what a double standard is.

Moreover, correct me if I'm wrong, but I am feeling certain hostility from you with regards to the analyses I have done. I mentioned it before, I sincerely did not expect these results, and I am more than open to analyze new data.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 09, 2012, 12:30:21 PM

Maliclavelli, I think groups of six and four are too small for valid variance calculations...

but I want you to know there are reasons that I think that Italy is a definite consideration as a key role in M343 and/or its descendants expansions/migrations.  I don't know the answers but I am open to your theory.  There are some strange haplotypes out there.

First of all, I'm not Maliclavelli, so I'm not sure why you have me confused, or are addressing him instead of me. As for analyses done using only Italy and Turkey, it was to test whether your hypothesis that excluding 1 haplotype when working with small datasets had a significant effect. It turns out, that only using the data from Italy vs. Turkey from the ht35 project, and Italy-Switzerland vs.Turkey from Myres et al(2010) did not have a significant effect, and still produced the same results where European samples have a greater variance than nonEuropean ones.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 09, 2012, 12:52:14 PM
Maliclavelli, I think groups of six and four are too small for valid variance calculations...

First of all, I'm not Maliclavelli, so I'm not sure why you have me confused...

I don't have you confused.  Maliclavelli also posts here and I was addressing him, quite specifically. I don't know how I could have been clearer?  It is okay to address someone else besides yourself?  Perhaps we have new moderation rules.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 09, 2012, 01:06:49 PM
I don't have you confused.  Maliclavelli also posts here and I was addressing him, quite specifically. I don't know how I could have been clearer?  It is okay to address someone else besides yourself?  Perhaps we have new moderation rules.

Well, you were quoting me, so I thought you were addressing me, if that wasn’t the case, I apologize for misinterpreting you. 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 09, 2012, 01:07:55 PM
First of all I want to thank Mike for what he has said. To Jean Lohizun I’d say that in some previous posts Mike reproached me because it seemed that you and me were the same and I, by what he said, was interpreting your thinking. The fact was that I let you do your analyses, with which I largely agreed, and you were clever than me in these analyses. Of course what Mike says merits to be taken in consideration: this analysis, even though favourable to me, is certainly partial. Let us expect more data and we’ll see better.
But I’d want to say that in my analyses I took in consideration other data, and, not having at my disposal FTDNA or other, I used some relatives of mine I tested and above all the SMGF data beside YHRD.
I think to have been always open to other solutions rather than the Italian Refugium: if I found my relative Fabrizio Federighi (tested by SMGF) a R-M269* with DYS462=12 who matched Filandro, a Portuguese (Rodrigues) and others overall in the world, I let always open the possibility that they could be of other origin than Italian one. Also the R-M269 with YCAII=17-23 matches a Lebanese (Jlelaty) I put on ySearch. Then the question is still open for me. I hope that my analyses are taken as scientific ones, and not inspired by my nationality.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 09, 2012, 02:07:23 PM
Now, if you now want to regard the variance calculation of R1b-M269(xL23) as useless because it yields somewhat unexpected results, please list the real reason, don’t just say that it is because of the small sample size.

No, that's it, plus the representativeness problem that Maliclavelli has pointed out. I repeat,
The sample sizes are too small and not representative.

Because, if you think those are small sample sizes(Given that the sample sizes used for R1b-M269(xL23) aren't small if one considers how rare this paragroup is.), ....

A haplotype sample of 15 may be approaching usefulness but I still don't think a sample of 7 means much. I just say that from experience in finding consistent (versus inconsistent) relative positioning between haplogroups.  I'd like to see minimum size groups of 50, but as you know the data is what it is.

then I have to say you are applying a clearly biased double standard here sir:...  Your sample size for R1b-M153 for the 49 mixed non-multicopy STR is 7. While you mentioned that the M153 data is limited....

The M153 sample may be representative, I don't know, but I agree that a sample size of 7 is too small.  In the message you cite I had a break in the paragraphs and clearly attached the caveat that you noticed "My M153 data is very limited."   I guess I need to put in longer caveats or embolden them in all cases. To be clear, I think the count of 7 M153 long haplotypes is way too small to be conclusive in telling much about the M153 among the Basques.  I built no hypothesis upon that in that discussion. It was just informational, because I typically get asked about M153 when I cite Z196. There is no double standard in that.

......

I appreciate your willingness to dig in to the data.  There is enlightment in that. Not necessarily agreement, though.  There is nothing wrong with that so keep digging.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 09, 2012, 05:30:24 PM
This has all got me feeling that M269* is a bit of a hopeless case for now but L23* is very interesting.  I do wonder if it has something to do with the Anatolian branch of IE and its ancestors elsewhere (if the Kurgan model is correct).  There have been links suggested for the Hittites with both the Caucuses and the Balkans.  Either way it would seem to be tempting to link it with some sort of early fission of IE into the general area and the Anatolian branch.  Its a shame (again following the Kurgan model) that the origin of the Hittites is not not clearer because that would perhaps provided a clue as to where M269* was located.  If L23 is some sort of echo of an external intrusion of Anatolian speakers as an early off-shoot of IE then that would point to M269* being located either in the area around the Caucuses or perhaps somewhere like the western shore of the Black Sea.   Could the early date of L23 in and around Anatolia be some sort of echo of the early split off of Anatolian as it entered the area from elsewhere? 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jean M on May 09, 2012, 06:58:13 PM
The PIE dialect that evolved into Proto-Anatolian is generally considered to have entered Anatolia from the west. Troy I (3000–2600 BC) seems to have been founded by IE people (anthropomorphic stele), who later spoke Luwian. A Luwian seal was found at the Troy VII (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troy_VII) level.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 13, 2012, 08:02:43 PM
Jean L - have you a model in mind?  Your calculations look like you are driving at M269* perhaps being a Balkans thing with L23* perhaps being some sort of off-shoot into Anatolia and the Caucuses (as well as westwards?)   I find that an interesting possibility but would like to see the idea fleshed out a bit.  As I posted eearlier today, there is not a lot of evidence for movement from Anatolia in the crucial period so a movement from SE or east-central Europe from some 'stay home' L23* is intriguing.   


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 13, 2012, 09:29:42 PM
Jean L - have you a model in mind?  Your calculations look like you are driving at M269* perhaps being a Balkans thing with L23* perhaps being some sort of off-shoot into Anatolia and the Caucuses (as well as westwards?)   I find that an interesting possibility but would like to see the idea fleshed out a bit.  As I posted eearlier today, there is not a lot of evidence for movement from Anatolia in the crucial period so a movement from SE or east-central Europe from some 'stay home' L23* is intriguing.   

I'm not confident we have enough data to postulate a model at the moment. But, I was looking over the Myres et al(2010) data yesterday, and aside from diversity observations of R1b-M269(xL23), there seems to be an excess of R1b-M269(xL23) and R1b-L23(xL51) in the Balkans.

Slovenia n=102
R1b-M269+ 18
R1b-M269(xL23) 1/18 or 5.55% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 4/18 or 22.22% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 1/4

Croatia n=108
R1b-M269+ 14
R1b-M269(xL23) 0/14 or 0% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 3/14 or 21.43% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 0/3

Serbia n=113
R1b-M269+ 11
R1b-M269(xL23) 5/11 or 45.45% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 1/11 or 9.09% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 5/1 

Herzegovina n=141
R1b-M269+ 4
R1b-M269(xL23) 2/4 or 50% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 2/4 or 50% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 2/2

Macedonia n=79
R1b-M269+ 4
R1b-M269(xL23) 4/4 or 100% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 0/4 or 0% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 4/0


Kosovo n=114
R1b-M269+ 24
R1b-M269(xL23) 9/24 or 37.5% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 13/24 or 54.16% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 9/13

Romanians n=330
R1b-M269+ 40
R1b-M269(xL23) 9/40 or 22.5% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 15/40 or 37.5% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 9/15

Greece n=185
R1b-M269+24
R1b-M269(xL23) 2/24 or 8.33% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 15/24 or 62.5% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 2/15

Crete n=193
R1b-M269+ 33
R1b-M269(xL23) 4/33 or 12.12% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 8/33 or 24.24% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 4/8

Turkey n=611
R1b-M269+ 91
R1b-M269(xL23) 12/91 or 13.19% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 71/91 or 78% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 12/71

Jordan n=222
R1b-M269+ 8
R1b-M269(xL23) 1/8 or 12.5% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 4/8 or 50% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 1/4

Iran n=150
R1b-M269+ 12
 R1b-M269(xL23) 4/12 or 33.33% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 7/12 or 58.33% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 4/7

In the Caucasus the only populations that have R1b-M269(xL23) are the following:

Lezgis n=31
R1b-M269+ 5
R1b-M269(xL23) 1/5 or 20% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 4/5 or 80% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 1/4

Tabasarans n=43
R1b-M269+ 17
R1b-M269(xL23) 1/17 or 5.88% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 16/17 or 94.12% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 1/16

So it seems the Caucasus is heavily R1b-L23(xL51) as a percentage of R1b-M269+ , Anatolia is somewhat similar to the Caucasus in terms of the distribution of R1b-L23(xL51) but has much less R1b-M269(xL23) relative to R1b-M269+ compared to Romanians, Serbians, Macedonians, and Kosovans.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 14, 2012, 01:50:29 PM
Jean L - have you a model in mind?  Your calculations look like you are driving at M269* perhaps being a Balkans thing with L23* perhaps being some sort of off-shoot into Anatolia and the Caucuses (as well as westwards?)   I find that an interesting possibility but would like to see the idea fleshed out a bit.  As I posted eearlier today, there is not a lot of evidence for movement from Anatolia in the crucial period so a movement from SE or east-central Europe from some 'stay home' L23* is intriguing.   

I'm not confident we have enough data to postulate a model at the moment. But, I was looking over the Myres et al(2010) data yesterday, and aside from diversity observations of R1b-M269(xL23), there seems to be an excess of R1b-M269(xL23) and R1b-L23(xL51) in the Balkans.

Slovenia n=102
R1b-M269+ 18
R1b-M269(xL23) 1/18 or 5.55% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 4/18 or 22.22% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 1/4

Croatia n=108
R1b-M269+ 14
R1b-M269(xL23) 0/14 or 0% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 3/14 or 21.43% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 0/3

Serbia n=113
R1b-M269+ 11
R1b-M269(xL23) 5/11 or 45.45% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 1/11 or 9.09% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 5/1 

Herzegovina n=141
R1b-M269+ 4
R1b-M269(xL23) 2/4 or 50% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 2/4 or 50% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 2/2

Macedonia n=79
R1b-M269+ 4
R1b-M269(xL23) 4/4 or 100% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 0/4 or 0% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 4/0


Kosovo n=114
R1b-M269+ 24
R1b-M269(xL23) 9/24 or 37.5% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 13/24 or 54.16% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 9/13

Romanians n=330
R1b-M269+ 40
R1b-M269(xL23) 9/40 or 22.5% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 15/40 or 37.5% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 9/15

Greece n=185
R1b-M269+24
R1b-M269(xL23) 2/24 or 8.33% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 15/24 or 62.5% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 2/15

Crete n=193
R1b-M269+ 33
R1b-M269(xL23) 4/33 or 12.12% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 8/33 or 24.24% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 4/8

Turkey n=611
R1b-M269+ 91
R1b-M269(xL23) 12/91 or 13.19% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 71/91 or 78% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 12/71

Jordan n=222
R1b-M269+ 8
R1b-M269(xL23) 1/8 or 12.5% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 4/8 or 50% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 1/4

Iran n=150
R1b-M269+ 12
 R1b-M269(xL23) 4/12 or 33.33% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 7/12 or 58.33% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 4/7

In the Caucasus the only populations that have R1b-M269(xL23) are the following:

Lezgis n=31
R1b-M269+ 5
R1b-M269(xL23) 1/5 or 20% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 4/5 or 80% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 1/4

Tabasarans n=43
R1b-M269+ 17
R1b-M269(xL23) 1/17 or 5.88% of R1b-M269+
R1b-L23(xL51) 16/17 or 94.12% of R1b-M269+

ratio of R1b-M269(xL23) to R1b-L23(xL51) 1/16

So it seems the Caucasus is heavily R1b-L23(xL51) as a percentage of R1b-M269+ , Anatolia is somewhat similar to the Caucasus in terms of the distribution of R1b-L23(xL51) but has much less R1b-M269(xL23) relative to R1b-M269+ compared to Romanians, Serbians, Macedonians, and Kosovans.


That is very interesting.  I think there will probably be an attempt to explain this trend away and the sample is tiny but it appears to me that judging on those stats, movement from Anatolia and the Caucuses might well have reduced the proportion of M269XL23 relative to L23 rather than raised it.   After reading up a bit on copper and early Bronze Age Turkey (I had prevously only really looked into the Neolithic and early copper age) it was a pretty fragmented place divided into lots of little zones and lacked a tradition of very widespread trading and elite contact right up until nearly the middle of the 2nd millenium when it started to homogenise and establish a network of contacts within and beyond.  Its pretty clear to me that there is absolutely nothing in the pre-beaker Bronze Age of Anatolia (I think that is their local Bronze Age I) that suggests any sort of scenario for an Anatolian outpouring west etc.

Its an interesting observation that proportinally M269* is much more common in SE Europe than SW Asia


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 14, 2012, 05:55:41 PM
So is there anything about these M269* folks.  I heard it suggested that some were Jewish.  That would complicate things. 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 14, 2012, 06:49:26 PM
So is there anything about these M269* folks.  I heard it suggested that some were Jewish.  That would complicate things. 

Some of the R1b-M269(xL23) folks from the ht35 project are said to be Jews. However, the data I provided was from the Myres et al(2010) study. AFAIK Jewish could be a possibility for Romania, although I doubt all 9 people that have R1b-M269(xL23) would be Jews. Given that the samples were collected from Romania, the probability is that those were likely ethnic Romanians. This is what I found about the Jewish population in Romania nowadays:


Quote
The situation for the Jews of Romania later improved, but the community has shrunk, mainly through aliyah - Today only about 6000 Jews remain in Romania, primarily in urban areas.[69]

source (http://www.insse.ro/cms/files/RPL2002INS/vol4/tabele/t1.pdf)

Serbia, Macedonia, Kosovo are very likely ethnic Serbians, Macedonians, and Albanians respectively.

Something interesting is that R1b-M269(xL23) peaks in Kosovo (i.e. It is 9/114 or 7.89%), which is inhabited by Albanians who speak Gheg Albanian.

Here is the interesting part about Albanian:

Quote
The Albanian language is a distinct Indo-European language that does not belong to any other existing branch; the other extant Indo-European isolate is Armenian.

It would be awesome to get some R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes from Kosovo, or Albania, unfortunately Myres et al(2010) did not publish them. Any Haplotype data from Albanians would be very welcomed.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 15, 2012, 03:18:01 PM
Is there any hope of an SNP between L51 and P312 that could split L51 into a line ancestral to P312 and another than is parallel?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 15, 2012, 03:18:35 PM
Is there any hope of an SNP between L51 and L11 that could split L51 into a line ancestral to L11 and another that is parallel?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 15, 2012, 04:01:05 PM
I'm not sure why the area of the modern day French Basque Country(Iparralde) is not shown as having R1b-L51 in the link posted by the OP.

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png (http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png)

When according to Table-S2 of Busby et al(2011) there are 2 out of 6 French Basques that are R1b-M269(xS127)

Here are the haplotypes:

DYS19 DYS389I DYS389b DYS390 DYS391 DYS392 DYS393 DYS437 DYS438 DYS439

HGDP00511 BAS M269(xS127) 14 12 16 24 11 13 12 15 12 13
HGDP00515 BAS M269(xS127) 14 13 17 25 11 13 12 15 12 12


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 15, 2012, 04:08:59 PM
I'm not sure why the area of the modern day French Basque Country(Iparralde) is not shown as having R1b-L51 in the link posted by the OP.

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png (http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png)

When according to Table-S2 of Busby et al(2011) there are 2 out of 6 French Basques that are R1b-M269(xS127)

Here are the haplotypes:

DYS19 DYS389I DYS389b DYS390 DYS391 DYS392 DYS393 DYS437 DYS438 DYS439

HGDP00511 BAS M269(xS127) 14 12 16 24 11 13 12 15 12 13
HGDP00515 BAS M269(xS127) 14 13 17 25 11 13 12 15 12 12

It is very likely that they are R-L150+ and probably come from elsewhere.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 15, 2012, 04:30:25 PM
I'm not sure why the area of the modern day French Basque Country(Iparralde) is not shown as having R1b-L51 in the link posted by the OP.

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png (http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png)

When according to Table-S2 of Busby et al(2011) there are 2 out of 6 French Basques that are R1b-M269(xS127)

Here are the haplotypes:

DYS19 DYS389I DYS389b DYS390 DYS391 DYS392 DYS393 DYS437 DYS438 DYS439

HGDP00511 BAS M269(xS127) 14 12 16 24 11 13 12 15 12 13
HGDP00515 BAS M269(xS127) 14 13 17 25 11 13 12 15 12 12

It is very likely that they are R-L150+ and probably come from elsewhere.

How so? After all, R1b-L23(xL11) was also found by the Martinez-Cruz et al(2012) in French Basques. In Zuberoa(n=53) there was a 1-R1b-L23(xP311) and in Labourd(n=44) there was another one. Plus the six samples used by Busby et al(2011) come from the HGDP database, so I’m sure that they checked that the 24 French Basque had 4 Grandparents born in the French Basque Country.

PS: These are the two haplotypes in with 15 STRs typed from Table-S3

Markers are in this order: DYS19  DYS389I  DYS389II  DYS390  DYS391  DYS392  DYS393  DYS437  DYS438  DYS439 DYS448  DYS456  DYS458  DYS635  Y-GATA-H4

HGDP00511 BAS M269 14 12 16 24 11 13 12 15 12 13 19 15 16 23 11      
HGDP00515 BAS M269 14 13 17 25 11 13 12 15 12 12 19 15 16 23 13      


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 15, 2012, 04:55:21 PM
I still think RR's L51* map has been underestimated in its value.  I understand that this might be mainly a parallel L51* line but the variance is early and it may have been a fellow traveler along the western beaker routes, possibly in tandem with other lines.  It clearly has a beaker-like distribution but interestingly it is predominantly a western beaker distribution and other than one pocket it does not include much of Germany and the later northern fringe of the beaker network.  It looks rather like it in some way echoes and perhaps provides a snapshot of a very early phase of beaker spread and exploration before it reached its later extent.  Given that the L11* phase is not well preserved this might be the best we have as a surrogate for that if you like -an indirect on tangential way of looking at what R1b was doing in western Europe around the time of the rise of L11.  This L51* group does look somewhat like an early beaker distribution, predominantly western but putting out feelers into what were to become important beaker nodes (allowing for some displacement over the last 5000 years). 

If this is an indirect echo of the early phase of beakers in Europe and perhaps L51 was the line that did the very first period of exploration in the period 3000-2600BC then where did their L23* ancestors live?  I understand that the L51* group may be predominantly an early parallel line to L11* but all the same they may have been fellow travelers.  So, where are the L23* people with the STRs closest to this L51* group (the ones seem as not directly ancestral to L11) located?  I really think a trick may be being missed here.  They may not be the ancestors of L11 but they were clearly following the early beaker route and probably were moving with the ancestors of L11.   


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 15, 2012, 05:09:01 PM
Look at RR's map of L-51 and look at this map of beaker dating

http://what-when-how.com/ancient-europe/bell-beakers-from-west-to-east-consequences-of-agriculture-5000-2000-b-c-ancient-europe/

Now its not totally uncontroversial as Muller and Willigen by throwing out dates not based on human bone etc left some areas bereft of dates, perhaps making their local beaker culture look younger than it was (as has recently been argued for Holland) but look at the general picture.  Even down to some of the islands in the west Med.  L51* has a fairly uncanny similarity even down to an early offshoot east.  I will try and did up another map.  I suspect that this L51* travelled with now-lost L11* clades and established these routes.  So the L51* map may be giving us a snapshot of the earlier phases of the bell beaker network c. 2600BC as it was just beginning to explore beyond its core in the west Med.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 15, 2012, 05:38:18 PM
As for the strange Ulster border blog in Ireland, the only source that springs to mind that is within that band is gold.  There is a beaker gold source in the Mournes on the eastern periphery of the blob and suspected gold sources in the Bronze Age included the Sperrin mountains on the northern edge of the blob and there is apparently a big gold source at the west end of the blob around the mountain of Croagh Patrick on the western edge of the blob.  I believe gold was panned rather than anything else.  It could of course be a much later fluke but that is all I can think of if a one-phase early beaker phase is considered.  There are quite a lot of beaker period wedge tombs in that area although not as many as a little further north in the Sperrins. I would like to see a map of Copper Age gold sources in Europe and compare.  Maybe the L51* guys were the gold specialists and liked their bling :0)


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 15, 2012, 05:52:20 PM
I still think RR's L51* map has been underestimated in its value.  I understand that this might be mainly a parallel L51* line but the variance is early and it may have been a fellow traveler along the western beaker routes, possibly in tandem with other lines.  ....   This L51* group does look somewhat like an early beaker distribution, predominantly western but putting out feelers into what were to become important beaker nodes (allowing for some displacement over the last 5000 years). 

If this is an indirect echo of the early phase of beakers in Europe and perhaps L51 was the line that did the very first period of exploration in the period 3000-2600BC then where did their L23* ancestors live?  I understand that the L51* group may be predominantly an early parallel line to L11* but all the same they may have been fellow travelers.  ...
I agree, the L51* 426=13 guys are important, even if they do NOT represent a variety of L51* lineages. The location of a second cousin may help us find the g-grandfather.  Given P312's high diversity in the same region (lower Rhone), something big must have happened there.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 15, 2012, 06:02:18 PM
I still think RR's L51* map has been underestimated in its value.  I understand that this might be mainly a parallel L51* line but the variance is early and it may have been a fellow traveler along the western beaker routes, possibly in tandem with other lines.  ....   This L51* group does look somewhat like an early beaker distribution, predominantly western but putting out feelers into what were to become important beaker nodes (allowing for some displacement over the last 5000 years).  

If this is an indirect echo of the early phase of beakers in Europe and perhaps L51 was the line that did the very first period of exploration in the period 3000-2600BC then where did their L23* ancestors live?  I understand that the L51* group may be predominantly an early parallel line to L11* but all the same they may have been fellow travelers.  ...
I agree, the L51* 426=13 guys are important, even if they do NOT represent a variety of L51* lineages. The location of a second cousin may help us find the g-grandfather.  Given P312's high diversity in the same region (lower Rhone), something big must have happened there.


What I find most interesting is that it is like a snapshot of the bell beaker complex around 2700/2600BC before it extended further north (Ulster border blob aside) and east or at least it was only putting its first tentative feelers out.  I am not saying it was an L51* phase, just that L51* seems to have been included in this phase but excluded from later phases of expansion c. 2600-2300BC.  That branch of the clan maybe still had some control on the beaker network in the beginning, perhaps sharing with the L11-ancestral branch of L51* and perhaps L11* too but it lost its importance.  I was only kidding about the possibility of a clan who were specialising more in the gold line but I wonder... Its a different technology and technique from copper in terms of obtaining it and its not that crazy to see different lineages dominating different niches of the network.   I saw a map of possible prehistoric gold sources recently but I cant recall where, probably in Jean M's paper collection.    


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: razyn on May 15, 2012, 06:40:28 PM
Look at RR's map of L-51 and look at this map of beaker dating

http://what-when-how.com/ancient-europe/bell-beakers-from-west-to-east-consequences-of-agriculture-5000-2000-b-c-ancient-europe/

It's interesting to see that much closely reasoned discussion of this in one place, but it begs several questions.  What if Muller and Willigen were basically mistaken (as you hinted in the comment about evidence they chose to deselect)?  That paper is already eleven years old -- does anybody now believe what they thought about haplogroups, in 2001?  What if wrist guards weren't really for archery, but functioned more as badges?  What if not only Pots aren't People, but neither are Beakers?  And so on.

I liked the crazy stuff about gold merchants.  What if Beakers (and all that they imply, about metals, wrist guards, buttons and whatnot) were restricted or controlled in some way, among a sort of international trading cartel, or mafia (in the uncapitalized, non-Sicilian sense)?  I'm thinking about a bumper sticker I used to see, maybe in Austin TX:  "Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I shall fear no evil; for I am the baddest S.O.B. in the valley."

I can imagine a bunch of guys who were part of that sort of business having a pretty limited pool of Y-DNA.  And some boats.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 15, 2012, 08:04:31 PM
I'm not sure why the area of the modern day French Basque Country(Iparralde) is not shown as having R1b-L51 in the link posted by the OP.

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png (http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png)

When according to Table-S2 of Busby et al(2011) there are 2 out of 6 French Basques that are R1b-M269(xS127)

Here are the haplotypes:

DYS19 DYS389I DYS389b DYS390 DYS391 DYS392 DYS393 DYS437 DYS438 DYS439

HGDP00511 BAS M269(xS127) 14 12 16 24 11 13 12 15 12 13
HGDP00515 BAS M269(xS127) 14 13 17 25 11 13 12 15 12 12

It is very likely that they are R-L150+ and probably come from elsewhere.

How so? After all, R1b-L23(xL11) was also found by the Martinez-Cruz et al(2012) in French Basques. In Zuberoa(n=53) there was a 1-R1b-L23(xP311) and in Labourd(n=44) there was another one. Plus the six samples used by Busby et al(2011) come from the HGDP database, so I’m sure that they checked that the 24 French Basque had 4 Grandparents born in the French Basque Country.

PS: These are the two haplotypes in with 15 STRs typed from Table-S3

Markers are in this order: DYS19  DYS389I  DYS389II  DYS390  DYS391  DYS392  DYS393  DYS437  DYS438  DYS439 DYS448  DYS456  DYS458  DYS635  Y-GATA-H4

HGDP00511 BAS M269 14 12 16 24 11 13 12 15 12 13 19 15 16 23 11      
HGDP00515 BAS M269 14 13 17 25 11 13 12 15 12 12 19 15 16 23 13      


According to the Busby tables, 100% of their L51+ French Basque samples were also L11+.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 15, 2012, 08:22:10 PM
Look at RR's map of L-51 and look at this map of beaker dating

http://what-when-how.com/ancient-europe/bell-beakers-from-west-to-east-consequences-of-agriculture-5000-2000-b-c-ancient-europe/

It's interesting to see that much closely reasoned discussion of this in one place, but it begs several questions.  What if Muller and Willigen were basically mistaken (as you hinted in the comment about evidence they chose to deselect)?  That paper is already eleven years old -- does anybody now believe what they thought about haplogroups, in 2001?  What if wrist guards weren't really for archery, but functioned more as badges?  What if not only Pots aren't People, but neither are Beakers?  And so on.

I liked the crazy stuff about gold merchants.  What if Beakers (and all that they imply, about metals, wrist guards, buttons and whatnot) were restricted or controlled in some way, among a sort of international trading cartel, or mafia (in the uncapitalized, non-Sicilian sense)?  I'm thinking about a bumper sticker I used to see, maybe in Austin TX:  "Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I shall fear no evil; for I am the meanest S.O.B. in the valley."

I can imagine a bunch of guys who were part of that sort of business having a pretty limited pool of Y-DNA.  And some boats.

I am a big proponent of Bell Beaker military movements being the main reason for their spread. The importance they gave their weaponry (bows, knives, axes) is obvious in graves and stelae. Due to the relatively late date of their appearance, I can't really see a genetic advantage, unless of course it's the height advantage they had over their contemporaries/opponents. Besides, do you know of any army in the world that asks recruits if they are lactose intolerant?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 15, 2012, 09:03:13 PM
According to the Busby tables, 100% of their L51+ samples are also L11+.

Check Table-S2 again, I can post a screenshot if you want me to.

There are a total of 6 French Basques that were sampled by Busby et al(2011), all of them come from HGDP. Here are their SNPs in the 10 STRs format, which is found in Table-S2:


HGDP00511 BAS M269(xS127) 14 12 16 24 11 13 12 15 12 13
HGDP00515 BAS M269(xS127) 14 13 17 25 11   13 12 15 12 12
HGDP00512 BAS S116(xS145,S28) 13 13 16 23 10 13 13 15 12 12
HGDP00533 BAS S21(xS29) 14 13 16 24 10 13 13 15 12 12
HGDP00519 BAS S28 14 13 17 24 10 13 13 15   12 11
HGDP00522 BAS S29 14 13 16 24 11 13 14 15   12 12

Last time I checked M269(xS127) was M269(xL11), so it is impossible that 100% of them are L11+. In fact in Table-S1 it clearly shows that 2/6 or 0.3333 are M269(xS127), and that 4/6 or 0.6667 are S127*. You might have gotten confused with column-H which indicates the overall frequency of R1b-M269 in the population, in which case all French Basque are R1b-M269+, and that is why it says 1.000.

Now that I think of it, I think there might be a typo on Table-S1, and Table-S2, I think that M269(xS127) should in fact be M269(xS167), if you look at it, S167(column-I), and M269(xS127) (column-J) add up to the total value of R1b-M269(column-H) in the populations, which means that it is likely a typo, and that column-J is in fact M269(xS167) or M269(xL51). This changes a lot of things. So this means that the two Basques are either L23 or L150, as they are ancestral to L51.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 15, 2012, 09:25:54 PM
According to the Busby tables, 100% of their L51+ samples are also L11+.

Check Table-S2 again, I can post a screenshot if you want me to.

There are a total of 6 French Basques that were sampled by Busby et al(2011), all of them come from HGDP. Here are their SNPs in the 10 STRs format, which is found in Table-S2:


HGDP00511 BAS M269(xS127) 14 12 16 24 11 13 12 15 12 13
HGDP00515 BAS M269(xS127) 14 13 17 25 11   13 12 15 12 12
HGDP00512 BAS S116(xS145,S28) 13 13 16 23 10 13 13 15 12 12
HGDP00533 BAS S21(xS29) 14 13 16 24 10 13 13 15 12 12
HGDP00519 BAS S28 14 13 17 24 10 13 13 15   12 11
HGDP00522 BAS S29 14 13 16 24 11 13 14 15   12 12

Last time I checked M269(xS127) was M269(xL11), so it is impossible that 100% of them are L11+. In fact in Table-S1 it clearly shows that 2/6 or 0.3333 are M269(xS127), and that 4/6 or 0.6667 are S127*. You might have gotten confused with column-H which indicates the overall frequency of R1b-M269 in the population, in which case all French Basque are R1b-M269+, and that is why it says 1.000.

Now that I think of it, I think there might be a typo on the Table-S1, and Table-S2, I think that M269(xS127) should in fact be M269(xS167), if you look at it, S167(column-I), and M269(xS127) (column-J) add up to the total value of R1b-M269(column-H) in the populations, which means that it is likely a typo, and that column-J is in fact M269(xS167) or M269(xL51). This changes a lot of things. So this means that the two Basques are either L23 or L150, as they are ancestral to L51.

They are saying that .667 of their samples are R-S167+(L51+). They are also saying that .667 of their samples are R-S127+(L11+). Therefore, they are saying that all of their L51+ samples are also L11+, which is obvious based on the fact that all four L11+ samples are accounted for (one S116*, one S21*, one S28, and one S29). By saying all of that, they are saying the two M269(xS127) samples are negative for L51.

Now, if they made an error in their labels, all bets are off.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 15, 2012, 09:46:55 PM

They are saying that .667 of their samples are R-S167+(L51+). They are also saying that .667 of their samples are R-S127+(L11+). Therefore, they are saying that all of their L51+ samples are also L11+, which is obvious based on the fact that all four L11+ samples are accounted for (one S116*, one S21*, one S28, and one S29). By saying all of that, they are saying the two M269(xS127) samples are negative for L51.

Now, if they made an error in their labels, all bets are off.

I agree with you, it must be a typo. It just doesn't make sense that 0.667 are S167 or L51, and only 0.333 are M269(xS127) which is equivalent to M269(xL11), while 0.667 are S127* or L11+. The thing here is that S127 is L11, so I think that there is definitely a typo, and that Column-J is not M269(xS127), but M269(xS167). In fact if you look at it column J(R-M269(xL51)) and column-I(R-L51) add up to the total frequency of M269 in the populations, which makes a whole lot of sense, given that if one adds M269(xL51) and L51 ones should get the total frequency of M269 in any given population. 

Actually after reviewing the data more profoundly, I realized that M269(xS127) is in fact M269(xL11), it just so happens than in populations where 100% of the S167/L51 is also S127/L11 (i.e. French Basques, etc) the M269(xL11) also represents M269(xL51).


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 15, 2012, 10:09:03 PM

They are saying that .667 of their samples are R-S167+(L51+). They are also saying that .667 of their samples are R-S127+(L11+). Therefore, they are saying that all of their L51+ samples are also L11+, which is obvious based on the fact that all four L11+ samples are accounted for (one S116*, one S21*, one S28, and one S29). By saying all of that, they are saying the two M269(xS127) samples are negative for L51.

Now, if they made an error in their labels, all bets are off.

I agree with you, it must be a typo. It just doesn't make sense that 0.667 are S167 or L51, and only 0.333 are M269(xS127) which is equivalent to M269(xL11), while 0.667 are S127* or L11+. The thing here is that S127 is L11, so I think that there is definitely a typo, and that Column-J is not M269(xS127), but M269(xS167). In fact if you look at it column J(R-M269(xL51)) and column-I(R-L51) add up to the total frequency of M269 in the populations, which makes a whole lot of sense, given that if one adds M269(xL51) and L51 ones should get the total frequency of M269 in any given population. 

Actually after reviewing the data more profoundly, I realized that M269(xS127) is in fact M269(xL11), it just so happens than in populations where 100% of the S167/L51 is also S127/L11 (i.e. French Basques, etc) the M269(xL11) also represents M269(xL51).

I'm still not getting why you think it is impossible for those two samples to be something like L23+?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 15, 2012, 10:27:55 PM

They are saying that .667 of their samples are R-S167+(L51+). They are also saying that .667 of their samples are R-S127+(L11+). Therefore, they are saying that all of their L51+ samples are also L11+, which is obvious based on the fact that all four L11+ samples are accounted for (one S116*, one S21*, one S28, and one S29). By saying all of that, they are saying the two M269(xS127) samples are negative for L51.

Now, if they made an error in their labels, all bets are off.

I agree with you, it must be a typo. It just doesn't make sense that 0.667 are S167 or L51, and only 0.333 are M269(xS127) which is equivalent to M269(xL11), while 0.667 are S127* or L11+. The thing here is that S127 is L11, so I think that there is definitely a typo, and that Column-J is not M269(xS127), but M269(xS167). In fact if you look at it column J(R-M269(xL51)) and column-I(R-L51) add up to the total frequency of M269 in the populations, which makes a whole lot of sense, given that if one adds M269(xL51) and L51 ones should get the total frequency of M269 in any given population. 

Actually after reviewing the data more profoundly, I realized that M269(xS127) is in fact M269(xL11), it just so happens than in populations where 100% of the S167/L51 is also S127/L11 (i.e. French Basques, etc) the M269(xL11) also represents M269(xL51).

I'm still not getting why you think it is impossible for those two samples to be something like L23+?

I got thrown off, because of the fact that in the case where 100% of S167 is also S127, then R-M269(xS127) is also R-M269(xS167). So for example in case of the French Basques the 2 R-M269(xL11) haplotypes are also R-M269(xL51), so they are likely either L23+, or L150+.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 16, 2012, 01:42:31 AM
JeanL says: “How so? After all, R1b-L23(xL11) was also found by the Martinez-Cruz et al(2012) in French Basques. In Zuberoa(n=53) there was a 1-R1b-L23(xP311) and in Labourd(n=44) there was another one. Plus the six samples used by Busby et al(2011) come from the HGDP database, so I’m sure that they checked that the 24 French Basque had 4 Grandparents born in the French Basque Country.
PS: These are the two haplotypes in with 15 STRs typed from Table-S3”.


Even though the data of these Basques are incomplete, it seems that from YHRD data nothing brings to Basques. For this I said that these haplotypes “come from elsewhere”.
2 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 11,14 12 12 15 19 15 17 23 12 >>
2 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 11,14 12 12 15 19 16 16 23 11 >>
1 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 11,14 12 12 15 19 15 19 23 12 >>
1 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 11,14 12 12 15 19 15 16 23 12 >>
1 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 11,15 12 12 15 19 16 16 23 11 >>
1 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 12,14 12 12 15 19 15 17 23 13 >>
2 of 393 Warsaw, Poland [Polish] Eurasian - European - Eastern European Europe
2 of 766 Australia [Aboriginal] Australian Aboriginal Oceania / Australia
1 of 102 Oran, Algeria [Arab] Afro-Asiatic - Semitic Africa
1 of 832 Sverdlovsk Region, Russian Federation [Russian] Eurasian - European - Eastern European Asia
1 of 249 Çukurova, Turkey [Turk] Eurasian - Altaic Asia
1 of 277 Antwerpen, Belgium [Belgian] Eurasian - European - Western European Europe

1 14 12 28 24 11 13 12 11,14 12 13 15 19 15 17 23 12 >>
1 14 12 28 24 11 13 12 11,14 12 13 15 20 16 16 23 13 >>
1 14 12 28 24 11 13 12 12,14 12 13 15 19 16 17 23 12 >>
1 of 637 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil [Admixed] Admixed Latin America
1 of 109 Ceará,Brazil [Admixed] Admixed Latin America
1 of 31 Dogu, Central Anatolia, Turkey [Kurdish] Eurasian - Altaic Asia



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 16, 2012, 08:48:31 AM

Even though the data of these Basques are incomplete, it seems that from YHRD data nothing brings to Basques. For this I said that these haplotypes “come from elsewhere”.
2 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 11,14 12 12 15 19 15 17 23 12 >>
2 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 11,14 12 12 15 19 16 16 23 11 >>
1 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 11,14 12 12 15 19 15 19 23 12 >>
1 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 11,14 12 12 15 19 15 16 23 12 >>
1 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 11,15 12 12 15 19 16 16 23 11 >>
1 14 13 30 25 11 13 12 12,14 12 12 15 19 15 17 23 13 >>
2 of 393 Warsaw, Poland [Polish] Eurasian - European - Eastern European Europe
2 of 766 Australia [Aboriginal] Australian Aboriginal Oceania / Australia
1 of 102 Oran, Algeria [Arab] Afro-Asiatic - Semitic Africa
1 of 832 Sverdlovsk Region, Russian Federation [Russian] Eurasian - European - Eastern European Asia
1 of 249 Çukurova, Turkey [Turk] Eurasian - Altaic Asia
1 of 277 Antwerpen, Belgium [Belgian] Eurasian - European - Western European Europe

1 14 12 28 24 11 13 12 11,14 12 13 15 19 15 17 23 12 >>
1 14 12 28 24 11 13 12 11,14 12 13 15 20 16 16 23 13 >>
1 14 12 28 24 11 13 12 12,14 12 13 15 19 16 17 23 12 >>
1 of 637 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil [Admixed] Admixed Latin America
1 of 109 Ceará,Brazil [Admixed] Admixed Latin America
1 of 31 Dogu, Central Anatolia, Turkey [Kurdish] Eurasian - Altaic Asia

Well the Basque haplotypes aren’t incomplete, they simply weren’t typed for DYS385. Nonetheless I went to the YHRD and there aren’t any exact matches for any of the two haplotypes. So you likely searched partial matches using less than the 15 markers. Also the haplotype data for the Basques populations found in YHDR comes from few studies(i.e. Guipuzcoa 19 haplotypes, Biscay 87 haplotypes, Alava 33,  autochthonous Spanish Basque 168 haplotypes), none of which have sampled in the French Basque Country.  In the Martinez-Cruz et al(2012) study one can see that while R-L23+ appears sporadically amongst French Basques, it doesn’t appear amongst Spanish Basques. 

I presume when you suggest they came from elsewhere, you are referring to the historical era. May I remind you, that these are HGDP Basques samples, so they are likely ethnic French Basques, if these two individuals are partly something else that came recently(i.e. In the last 2000 years) it would still show in their autosomal profile, and if you have been paying attention to the ADMIXTURE runs done by several studies, you know that all French Basques look about the same in terms of ADMIXTURE components, so there are no outliers. I any case, of course I believe that unless R-L150+ or R-L23+ originated in the French Basque country, it must have come from elsewhere, now to suggest that it came from elsewhere during the historical era based on the data thus far  collected is more a wishful thinking than any actual theory. The fact is, that R-L23+(xL51) does appear amongst French Basques, however due to the small sample sizes used by Busby et al(2011), he happened to gather 2 R-L23+(xL51)  in a sample of 6, which put the frequency at 33%. We know from studies that used bigger samples sizes that the frequency of R-L23+(xL51) in French Basques is much less than that, usually in the order of 1/50.

PS: The closest haplotype to this French Basques haplotype:

French Basque-1:

14 12 28 24 11 13 12 12 13 15 19 15 16 23 11     

Is

14 12 28 24 11 13 12 12 13 15 19 15 17 23 12

Which is from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil [Admixed] Admixed Latin America, Brazil. They differ by 2 mutations.

French Basque-2:

14 13 30 25 11 13 12 12 12 15 19 15 16 23 13

The closest match is:

14 13 30 25 11 13 12 12 12 15 19 15 17 23 13

Which is from Antwerpen, Belgium [Belgian] Eurasian - European - Western European Europe. They differ by 1 mutation.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 16, 2012, 11:13:39 AM
This to say what? That probably Iberia (and Basques) aren’t at the origin of L23, L150, L51 and so on. If you note, the presence in Iberia of L51 in the RRocca’s map, as I have already said, is in places colonized by Italian agriculturalists by sea 7500YBP. I know that they believe that hg. R is younger, but you should know too that I don’t agree with them.
These haplotypes aren’t Basque, I think (and the autosmal isn’t a proof, because if a Y entered the Basque pool 2000YBP, you don’t find now anything of it at autosomal level), also because these are two very different haplotypes and Basques haven’t anything of intermediate. To pass from DYS389=13-29 (or +16) to 12-28 or to 13-30, it needs much time, many thousands of years, and the people of origin should have much more of the modal, what Basques don’t get. A similar demonstration I gave for Basque R-M269*, I think having demonstrated not Basque in its origin.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 16, 2012, 11:36:36 AM
These haplotypes aren’t Basque, I think (and the autosmal isn’t a proof, because if a Y entered the Basque pool 2000YBP, you don’t find now anything of it at autosomal level), also because these are two very different haplotypes and Basques haven’t anything of intermediate. To pass from DYS389=13-29 (or +16) to 12-28 or to 13-30, it needs much time, many thousands of years, and the people of origin should have much more of the modal, what Basques don’t get. A similar demonstration I gave for Basque R-M269*, I think having demonstrated not Basque in its origin.



Well to say that those two haplotypes aren’t Basque is simply wishful thinking. I already laid out my reasoning. But, if you think that an intrusion from elsewhere(i.e. Jewish, Eastern Europe, even Italy) dating back to the historical era(i.e. 0-2000 ybp) leaves no trace autosomally, then you might as well accept that R1b could indeed have originated in West Asia(4000-8000 ybp), became the majority haplogroup in Basques, and left no Autosomal trace.  I never said that these L23+(xL51) haplotypes originated in situ, I said that there is no proof that they came in the historical era. Moreover, this is a random sample of 6, why would one expect to find anything intermediate if the sample size is so small. Also, the people where a SNP originates do not necessarily have to have more of the modal, quite contrary, there is more time there for the haplotypes to mutate, ergo the will be less modal haplotypes relative to the whole pool and in places where it arrived later.

PS: The haplotypes differ from one another by 6 mutations.   

HGDP00511 BAS M269 14 12 16 24 11 13 12 15 12 13 19 15 16 23 11     
HGDP00515 BAS M269 14 13 17 25 11 13 12 15 12 12 19 15 16 23 13 

All this means, is that they are really ancient in the region, they are probably survivors of the R-L51, and R-P312 expansions, and that is why they are so vastly different from one another.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 16, 2012, 12:02:13 PM
Yes, of course we need more data and everything is possible. I think that the place of origin of a haplogroup is that where there is a path of that haplogroup, and it seems to me that Basques or Iberia haven’t it, but everything is still possible till we haven’t much more data.
Many years ago I said to Sam Vass that their haplotypes were of Iberian origin and I discovered on SMGF a Basque (probably) R1b1* I put on ySearch: Arellano.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 16, 2012, 12:45:27 PM
One of the significance of the L51* distribution compared to beakers is as I have said they dont include the later beaker areas such as northern Europe, the isles (apart from the one blob in southern Ulster).  It could all be chance but I doubt it.  It suggests that the initial period of beaker spread included L51* but the secondary phase didnt.  So that would all but rule out a northern European entry of L51* and as the map implies it must have entered from the west Med. by sea or perhaps along the Alpine fringe.  It certainly wouldnt support a movement any further north than the Alps.  That of course is not exactly stunning as it is pretty in line with Muller and Willigen's dates.  It seems to tie their basic model (maybe not every detail) in extremely well with L51*.  Now I understand that L51* variance also ties in extremely well with it being part of the very early phase of beaker culture c. 2800-2600BC or something like that. 

The question it raised to me is where in this ealry beaker block the minority of L11* that was ancestral to L11* was located.  It was after all one L51* man who developed the L11* SNP.  I would tend to think that L51* was from the start of the beaker spread a minority within an L11* (probably P312 giving way to its major subclades) group because the same areas came to be predominantly L11 and derived but its a handy proxy for the early movements of L11 and probably P312 too. 

If L51* is a proxy for  ifor early L11*/P312 movements then it narrows down the areas in which P312 could have occurred to that L51* zone. 

Although its a leap of faith you could say that this early movement exploring happened just before U152 and L21 SNPs had occurred given the lack of U152 in Atlantic Iberia and L21 in some of the other areas in the L51* distribution.  They likely occurred locally just after this movement that has been snapshoted by the L51* element. 

So, the early period proxied by the L51* minority cousins within it perhaps occurred at the point when DF 27 had occurred but immediately before U152 and L21. So, I woud guess we are looking at an L51*, L11*, P312* and DF 27 phase.  That might actually fit the variance rather well if we are looking at a point around 2600BC or just before. 

I have a hunch that the isolated L51* pocket in central Europe could be an echo of an L51* and L11* movement in that direction, perhaps is represented by the people in the recent beaker burial found to ne M268xU106.  I dont think U106 occurred until later when some of the L11* folks had reached Poland.  The core in SE France could have around the same time but fractionally behind developed locally U152 just before it spread into Italy.  The branch of L51* heading towards NW France could likely have been among a group of P312* giving birth to L21* while the L51* heading west (apparently by a marine leap) could have been a minor element in a DF 27 dominated  movement.       

 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: razyn on May 16, 2012, 03:28:06 PM
If L51* is a proxy for early L11*/P312 movements then it narrows down the areas in which P312 could have occurred to that L51* zone.

Yes, but if it isn't (a proxy, &c.), it doesn't.  I keep wondering whether L51* is a proxy for low resolution testing, several years ago -- and whether that's what Rich R has mapped.  I'm not persuaded that today's paragroup (L51*, or others) points to much more than tomorrow's SNP discoveries. And if that fear turns out to be grounded, the point along young L11's itinerary at which P312 really did occur might be somewhere not highlighted on the said map.  Anyway, we shall see.

Quote
as the map implies it must have entered from the west Med. by sea or perhaps along the Alpine fringe.  It certainly wouldn't support a movement any further north than the Alps.

Well, probably not a land movement, of a migrating population, north of the Alps.  And that's if the map is right... or, rather, a map of what you think it is.  Again, we shall see.

I agree with most of what you said here, except for having reservations about one or two of its premises.  I don't mean to be a pest, but also don't want to slam any doors yet on alternate lines of investigation.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 16, 2012, 11:41:21 PM

For what its worth, about eight months ago I utilized the Busby 15-Str study data and ran some Phylograms and a Fluxus to see how the branching fell out. If anyone is interested. The Goggle stored Zip file contains Spreadsheets and PDFs.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0By9Y3jb2fORNYjdYcW54ODA4RFk

MJost


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 17, 2012, 07:43:54 AM
If L51* is a proxy for early L11*/P312 movements then it narrows down the areas in which P312 could have occurred to that L51* zone.

Yes, but if it isn't (a proxy, &c.), it doesn't.  I keep wondering whether L51* is a proxy for low resolution testing, several years ago -- and whether that's what Rich R has mapped.  I'm not persuaded that today's paragroup (L51*, or others) points to much more than tomorrow's SNP discoveries. And if that fear turns out to be grounded, the point along young L11's itinerary at which P312 really did occur might be somewhere not highlighted on the said map.  Anyway, we shall see.

Quote
as the map implies it must have entered from the west Med. by sea or perhaps along the Alpine fringe.  It certainly wouldn't support a movement any further north than the Alps.

Well, probably not a land movement, of a migrating population, north of the Alps.  And that's if the map is right... or, rather, a map of what you think it is.  Again, we shall see.

I agree with most of what you said here, except for having reservations about one or two of its premises.  I don't mean to be a pest, but also don't want to slam any doors yet on alternate lines of investigation.

Even if its not a proxy the L51* group seems to have followed the pre-2600 beaker networks judging by distribution.  An alternative to it being a small element travelling with L11 groups is that it is the signiture of an early exploratory phase (maybe something like the tail end of Jean's Stelae People) where the beaker networks were judt developing and people were exploring and moving along what would later be thought of as the beaker network.  Of course that would have to mean that a cousinly group of L11 folks then followed behing the exact same networks and everywhere they went the L11 people swamped the L51* lines.  That is not impossible but it seems very unlikely given that it would require that in all the far flung corners of the beaker world L11 just so happened to always outdo L51* lines time and time again.  

More likely IMO that the initial beaker groups featured only a little L51* and L11* and a lot more P312 and its very earliest subclades.  The non-appearance of L51* in the beaker areas settled after 2600BC could simply be down to loss of a small minority lineage during a process of constant fission of the group.

  


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 17, 2012, 09:29:55 AM
I also found this map on Rokus's blog.  Its the variance of L23* from Myres sample.

http://rokus01.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/l23.png

It again in terms of Europe west of the Adriatic bears a strong resemblance to Willigen and Mullers beaker dating (in relative terms, I am ignorng the actual dates). OK its not as eligance map as that that RR created for the distribution of L51* but it does bear a strong resemblance to the general sequence of the spread of beaker. So again I would hypothesis that a very small L23* element travelled with the L51* group into the west.  So, this L23* group could be a proxy for the beaker and pre-beaker group that first brought R1b into western Europe.  The route into western Europe does again look to have been a southern one or at a stretch an Alpine one.   What is interesing about the L23* map is that unlike L51* it is not restricted to the beaker network and includes a huge swathe to the east.  The map is probably as close as we get to understanding the direction and origin of L23 in pre-beaker times.  Unfortunately its a rather huge area.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 17, 2012, 09:52:06 AM
Actually that map and its relative ages of various areas looks rather like L23 was born in northern Mesolopamia in the Neolithic and spread from there into both sides of the Black Sea.  That would have put L23* is the steppes, Romania and Anatolia during the PIE formation period.  In the mix as it were in all the locations that have been suggested for PIE. 



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 17, 2012, 10:09:32 AM
and a futher thought is if L23* moved out of northern Mesopotamia and was already in the steppes, Anatolia and the Balkans in three seperated groups in say 4000BC then that also bears a bit of a parallel to the PIE/Anatolian split.

Anyway before getting too complicated, I would ask for opinions on this - if L23" was one of the groups (presimably a dairy element infiltratng) in the steppes say 4000BC and they were among R1a hunters morphing inot nomadic pastoralists then who is to say which one of the two groups actually spoke IE first?  Perhaps the north Mesopotamian L23 pushed into Anatolia (and maybe also crossing the Bosphorus) in one branch and another headed through the Caucuses into the steppes. That sort of scenario does bear some resemblence to the linguistic one where the Anatolian branch split off early from the group who were to become PIE.   I am not saying that happened but I cant see any reasson why it is not an option. 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 17, 2012, 12:41:04 PM

For what its worth, about eight months ago I utilized the Busby 15-Str study data and ran some Phylograms and a Fluxus to see how the branching fell out. If anyone is interested. The Goggle stored Zip file contains Spreadsheets and PDFs.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0By9Y3jb2fORNYjdYcW54ODA4RFk

MJost
(2nd version post. Deleted my first due to incorrect STR column alignment in Ken's Gen sheet.)

Using Modified KenN Gen111T using Busby 15 marker study which the Gen sheet can use only 13 Markers.

Result:

M269 and S116(P312)

YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=177    M269 GA coal=   182.6   4,565.9   GA=   202.9   5,071.4      
                           
25   N=717   S116/P312 GB coal=   130.5   3,261.4   GB=   148.4   3,710.2      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   195.7   4,892.5            


M269 and S21(U106)

YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=177    M269 GA coal=   182.6   4,565.9   GA=   202.9   5,071.4      
                           
25   N=141   S21/U106 GB coal=   139.0   3,474.7   GB=   153.1   3,827.6      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   193.5   4,837.4            


M269 and L21
 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=177    M269 GA coal=   182.6   4,565.9   GA=   202.9   5,071.4      
                           
25   N=648   L21 GB coal=   119.5   2,988.6   GB=   130.0   3,249.8      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   224.4   5,609.4            
   
MJost


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 17, 2012, 01:15:47 PM
and a futher thought is if L23* moved out of northern Mesopotamia and was already in the steppes, Anatolia and the Balkans in three seperated groups in say 4000BC then that also bears a bit of a parallel to the PIE/Anatolian split.

Anyway before getting too complicated, I would ask for opinions on this - if L23" was one of the groups (presimably a dairy element infiltratng) in the steppes say 4000BC and they were among R1a hunters morphing inot nomadic pastoralists then who is to say which one of the two groups actually spoke IE first?  Perhaps the north Mesopotamian L23 pushed into Anatolia (and maybe also crossing the Bosphorus) in one branch and another headed through the Caucuses into the steppes. That sort of scenario does bear some resemblence to the linguistic one where the Anatolian branch split off early from the group who were to become PIE.   I am not saying that happened but I cant see any reasson why it is not an option. 

I just want to add a couple of thoughts to it:

1-This is a paragroup, which is L23(xM412/L51), I too did the calculations of variance for the paragroup L23*, and found it to be the oldest at the Caucasus, however, this was only observed when all Caucasian populations were sampled as a whole, individually, the variance decayed greatly.  You can find more about it here:  http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Herreraetal2010L23xL51data.jpg (http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Herreraetal2010L23xL51data.jpg)

2-The graph you provided shows Isoclines based on the data collected from Table-S2, more specifically it shows the Coalescent times rather than the variance. Myres et al(2010) used the evolutionary rate to calculate those coalescence times. The main problem here, is that the data for L23* is as follows:

Greece(n=15) TD=6763 ybp
Slovakia(n=10) TD=5153 ybp
Switzerland(n=10) TD=7246 ybp
Hungary(n=7) TD=5952 ybp
Romania(n=12) TD=11199 ybp
Caucasus(n=32) TD=12217 ybp
Bashkirs(n=29) TD=1624 ybp
Pakistan(n=5) TD=14493
Turkey(n=58) TD=11057 ybp
Italy(n=14) TD=9526 ybp
Poland(n=7) TD=3106 ybp

Those dates were used to construct the map you provided:

 http://rokus01.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/l23.png (http://rokus01.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/l23.png)

As you can see the reason why it appears as if Northern Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan have such an old date, is due to the anomalous results from Pakistan, which are likely due to the small sample size. However given that we have no data from Iran, at least not from Myres et al(2010), it is really hard to come to any reasonable conclusion that L23 originated in Northern Mesopotamia. Something else to look at, is that the TD of Romania, and of Turkey are very similar, and this is something I observed in my own calculations of Variance for L23(xL51). However, my results differ from theirs, in that I calculate the modal in a locus basis, whereas they do it finding the median haplotype per population.  If I was forced to postulate a hypothesis based on the data published by Myres et al(2010); I would say that given the relatively significant presence of R1b-M269(xL23) in the Balkans, and the relatively significant variance of R1b-L23(xL51) in Romania, that L23 was born somewhere near Romania either to the West of it, or to the East of it.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 17, 2012, 01:18:54 PM
(2nd version post. Deleted my first due to incorrect STR column alignment in Ken's Gen sheet.)

Using Modified KenN Gen111T using Busby 15 marker study which the Gen sheet can use only 13 Markers.

Result:

M269 and S116(P312)

YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=177    M269 GA coal=   182.6   4,565.9   GA=   202.9   5,071.4      
                           
25   N=717   S116/P312 GB coal=   130.5   3,261.4   GB=   148.4   3,710.2      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   195.7   4,892.5            


M269 and S21(U106)

YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=177    M269 GA coal=   182.6   4,565.9   GA=   202.9   5,071.4      
                           
25   N=141   S21/U106 GB coal=   139.0   3,474.7   GB=   153.1   3,827.6      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   193.5   4,837.4            


M269 and L21
 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=177    M269 GA coal=   182.6   4,565.9   GA=   202.9   5,071.4      
                           
25   N=648   L21 GB coal=   119.5   2,988.6   GB=   130.0   3,249.8      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   224.4   5,609.4            
   
MJost

Would you mind doing the same calculations in all the P15+(G2a+) haplotypes found in the latest study published about Haplogroup G.

The haplotypes are found on Supplementary Table-3.

http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg201286s1.html (http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg201286s1.html)


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 17, 2012, 02:31:14 PM
and a futher thought is if L23* moved out of northern Mesopotamia and was already in the steppes, Anatolia and the Balkans in three seperated groups in say 4000BC then that also bears a bit of a parallel to the PIE/Anatolian split.

Anyway before getting too complicated, I would ask for opinions on this - if L23" was one of the groups (presimably a dairy element infiltratng) in the steppes say 4000BC and they were among R1a hunters morphing inot nomadic pastoralists then who is to say which one of the two groups actually spoke IE first?  Perhaps the north Mesopotamian L23 pushed into Anatolia (and maybe also crossing the Bosphorus) in one branch and another headed through the Caucuses into the steppes. That sort of scenario does bear some resemblence to the linguistic one where the Anatolian branch split off early from the group who were to become PIE.   I am not saying that happened but I cant see any reasson why it is not an option. 

I just want to add a couple of thoughts to it:

1-This is a paragroup, which is L23(xM412/L51), I too did the calculations of variance for the paragroup L23*, and found it to be the oldest at the Caucasus, however, this was only observed when all Caucasian populations were sampled as a whole, individually, the variance decayed greatly.  You can find more about it here:  http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Herreraetal2010L23xL51data.jpg (http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Herreraetal2010L23xL51data.jpg)

2-The graph you provided shows Isoclines based on the data collected from Table-S2, more specifically it shows the Coalescent times rather than the variance. Myres et al(2010) used the evolutionary rate to calculate those coalescence times. The main problem here, is that the data for L23* is as follows:

Greece(n=15) TD=6763 ybp
Slovakia(n=10) TD=5153 ybp
Switzerland(n=10) TD=7246 ybp
Hungary(n=7) TD=5952 ybp
Romania(n=12) TD=11199 ybp
Caucasus(n=32) TD=12217 ybp
Bashkirs(n=29) TD=1624 ybp
Pakistan(n=5) TD=14493
Turkey(n=58) TD=11057 ybp
Italy(n=14) TD=9526 ybp
Poland(n=7) TD=3106 ybp

Those dates were used to construct the map you provided:

 http://rokus01.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/l23.png (http://rokus01.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/l23.png)

As you can see the reason why it appears as if Northern Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan have such an old date, is due to the anomalous results from Pakistan, which are likely due to the small sample size. However given that we have no data from Iran, at least not from Myres et al(2010), it is really hard to come to any reasonable conclusion that L23 originated in Northern Mesopotamia. Something else to look at, is that the TD of Romania, and of Turkey are very similar, and this is something I observed in my own calculations of Variance for L23(xL51). However, my results differ from theirs, in that I calculate the modal in a locus basis, whereas they do it finding the median haplotype per population.  If I was forced to postulate a hypothesis based on the data published by Myres et al(2010); I would say that given the relatively significant presence of R1b-M269(xL23) in the Balkans, and the relatively significant variance of R1b-L23(xL51) in Romania, that L23 was born somewhere near Romania either to the West of it, or to the East of it.



I am glad you commented on my post because I thought there would be weaknesses in the Myres map.  There are some commonalities though.  I am not surprised that there is a similarity in high variance in Turkey and countries immediately west of the Black Sea like Romania as the areas are known to be connected by the Neolithic cultures like Hamangia and others in the area.  its probably that very connection that brought cattle dairy farming into Europe shortly before 5000BC.  There are lots of other less well understood connections between NE Anatolia and Thrace  Archeolgically it is easier to see the direction of flow as Anatolia to Bulgaria and Romania.  If the variance is similar perhaps L23* occurred pretty well at that moment in time as the movements were about to take place.

On the other hand, the L23* map from Rokus's site does seem to make variance higher in western Turkey and if you took that at face value (which I probably shouldnt) the only way of  linking the high variance in west Anatolia to the Romania area leaving the high variance area (without getting in a boat) would actually by going around the east side of the Black Sea and through southern Russia/Ukraine.  So, the possibility that it could have actually got to Romania by a round about route like that should be borne in mind.  The possibility that L23 actually passed into the steppes and reached the area to the west of the Black Sea from the steppes cannot be ruled out.  It is noticeable that the Aegean coast itself around Turkey, Greece etc is in a low variance area for L23* which doesnt really point to that particular route.   
 
I find the M269* west Balkans aspect very interesting though although I find it harder to work out a way of squaring it with population movements I know of.   

 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 17, 2012, 04:22:02 PM
I thought it would be interesting to compare the newly released data for European G-P15+(Rootsi.et.al.2012) to the data for European R1b-L23+(Myres.et.al.2010). Rootsi.et.al.2012 uses 19 STRs, but Myres.et.al.2010 uses only 10 STRs, fortunately enough, they intersect in those 10 STRs, unfortunately Rootsi.et.al.2012 reported having some problems with DYS19, and I too encounter some problems using DYS19, so the intersected database consisted of 9 STRs:

DYS388, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS439, DYS461.

The sample size for European G-P15+ was 189, whereas the sample size for European R-L23+ was 812. So in order to test whether there was a bias caused by the sample size difference, I ran ten experiments where I randomly drew 189 European R-L23+ haplotypes, and calculated the variance of the random sample. I included all the data, so one can see the variance of the European R-L23+ using all 812 haplotypes, and the variances calculated using 189 randomly drawn haplotypes for each one of the ten experiments. At the end I took the average variance of the 10 random samples, and I also calculated the standard deviation.

Here are the results:

(http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Rootsietal2012-VarianceComparisonG-P15vsR-L23.jpg)

 http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Rootsietal2012-VarianceComparisonG-P15vsR-L23.jpg (http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Rootsietal2012-VarianceComparisonG-P15vsR-L23.jpg)

What stands out, is that the variance of European R-L23+ is about ~0.74 that of European G-P15+. G-P15+ has been found earliest in a Cardial site in Avellaner, Catalonia dating back to 5000 BC. If fix the TMRCA of European G-P15+ as being at least 7000 ybp, then this yields a TMRCA of at least 5100 ybp (3089 BC) for European R-L23+.

PS: I did not try to correct for back mutations, because I wasn't calculating TMRCA but comparing the relative variance of R-L23+ to G-P15+ in Europe. So, I am well aware that there might be back mutations that have occurred in R-L23+, but there are also back mutations that have occurred in G-P15+. I'm assuming that the correcting factors would be close enough to each other as to assume their ratio would be 1.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 17, 2012, 04:42:40 PM


Would you mind doing the same calculations in all the P15+(G2a+) haplotypes found in the latest study published about Haplogroup G.

The haplotypes are found on Supplementary Table-3.

http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg201286s1.html (http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg201286s1.html)

Ok, here they are.  I removed Hts with dual, missing, or obvious errors (ie -9) STR alleles in the spread sheet.

Modified KenN Gen111T using
Distinguishing the co-ancestries of haplogroup G
Siiri Rootsi Etal
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/suppinfo/ejhg201286s1.html
15 marker study using 15 Markers.

G-P15 and P16

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=107   G-P16 GB coal=   208.3   5,207.5   GB=   221.3   5,532.5      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   398.9   9,972.1            

G-P15 and L497

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=62   G-L497 GB coal=   83.3   2,081.8   GB=   94.5   2,361.6      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   275.0   6,874.2            



G-P15 and L91

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=29   G-L91 GB coal=   78.4   1,959.0   GB=   101.0   2,524.5      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   304.6   7,614.7            



G-P15 and M285

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP         
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2         
                              
25   N=17   G-M285 GB coal=   171.0   4,274.5   GB=   251.9   6,296.8         
                              
TMRCA      Founder                        
25      GAB=   395.7   9,891.7            


G-P15 and PM377

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=23   G-M377 GB coal=   70.3   1,758.4   GB=   83.5   2,086.3      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   389.0   9,725.0            

G-P15 and M406
 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=35   G-M406 GB coal=   143.0   3,574.7   GB=   183.5   4,587.7      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   419.4   10,484.6            



G-P15 and M426

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=4   G-M426 GB coal=   4.6   115.4   GB=   6.2   153.8      

TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   302.8   7,570.9            



G-P15 and M485

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=4   G-M485 GB coal=   81.5   2,037.9   GB=   104.6   2,614.6      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   413.5   10,337.3            

G-P15 and G-M527

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=30   G-M527 GB coal=   89.4   2,235.2   GB=   116.5   2,912.0      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   273.9   6,846.4            


G-P15 and P20

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=7   G-P20 GB coal=   150.7   3,766.5   GB=   228.5   5,712.6      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   426.0   10,651.0            


G-P15 and P303

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=58   G-P303 GB coal=   142.3   3,558.1   GB=   172.3   4,306.4      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   294.4   7,360.7            


G-P15 and Page19

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=12   G-Page19 GB coal=   91.8   2,294.2   GB=   112.8   2,819.7      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   396.1   9,902.2            


G-P15 and U1

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=118   G-U1 GB coal=   126.0   3,150.2   GB=   149.5   3,738.1      
                           
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   276.4   6,909.8            



AND Just for Fun:   G-P15 and R1b-L21

 
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP      
25   N=15   G-P15 GA coal=   199.9   4,998.2   GA=   269.0   6,726.2      
                           
25   N=648   R-L21 GB coal=   105.0   2,624.0   GB=   113.7   2,843.4                           
                        
TMRCA      Founder                     
25      GAB=   935.4   23,385.5            


MJost


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 17, 2012, 04:48:19 PM
Ok, here they are.  I removed Hts with dual, missing, or obvious errors (ie -9) STR alleles in the spread sheet.
 

Thanks!!!

Yeah, I also removed the samples that were missing some STRs, and I also noticed the -9 thing, I thought about changing it to 9, but then I just deleted it. It made  me laugh a little, how does one get -9 repeats?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 17, 2012, 04:54:08 PM
As for the route to the west, one thing noticeable is that once west of Romania the variance of L23* is much lower north of the Balkans.  It is also noticeable that the Aegean coast itself around Turkey, Greece etc is in a low variance area for L23* which doesnt really point to that particular route.   That would seem (unless some massive jump by boat was done) that the route was north of Aegean Greece and south of the Dabube i.e. the Balkans.  The Balkans at least have L23*  variance equal to the norm for the west Med.  So you would have to think Occam's Razor favours a route through the Balkans to the west and some sort of sail along the Adriatic and along the Med. or perhaps a crawl along the southern fringe of the Alps.  L23* variance areas that are at least equal to the west Med. only overlap with L51* distribution at the head of the Adriatic.  Pehaps the west Balkan M269* arrived from somewhere like Romania as minority fellow travellors with L23* and L51* occurred in the north-west Balkans.

 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: MHammers on May 17, 2012, 05:04:48 PM
Nice work Mark.  It is interesting that the G subclades appear in a wider neolithic time-frame.

One thing about R1b M269* and everything M269+ is the dates almost always come out to the 3rd millenium and later on Ken's Generations7 for 67 marker haplotypes.  


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 17, 2012, 05:18:29 PM
I thought it would be interesting to compare the newly released data for European G-P15+(Rootsi.et.al.2012) to the data for European R1b-L23+(Myres.et.al.2010). Rootsi.et.al.2012 uses 19 STRs, but Myres.et.al.2010 uses only 10 STRs, fortunately enough, they intersect in those 10 STRs, unfortunately Rootsi.et.al.2012 reported having some problems with DYS19, and I too encounter some problems using DYS19, so the intersected database consisted of 9 STRs:

DYS388, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS439, DYS461.

The sample size for European G-P15+ was 189, whereas the sample size for European R-L23+ was 812. So in order to test whether there was a bias caused by the sample size difference, I ran ten experiments where I randomly drew 189 European R-L23+ haplotypes, and calculated the variance of the random sample. I included all the data, so one can see the variance of the European R-L23+ using all 812 haplotypes, and the variances calculated using 189 randomly drawn haplotypes for each one of the ten experiments. At the end I took the average variance of the 10 random samples, and I also calculated the standard deviation.

Here are the results:

(http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Rootsietal2012-VarianceComparisonG-P15vsR-L23.jpg)

 http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Rootsietal2012-VarianceComparisonG-P15vsR-L23.jpg (http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Rootsietal2012-VarianceComparisonG-P15vsR-L23.jpg)

What stands out, is that the variance of European R-L23+ is about ~0.74 that of European G-P15+. G-P15+ has been found earliest in a Cardial site in Avellaner, Catalonia dating back to 5000 BC. If fix the TMRCA of European G-P15+ as being at least 7000 ybp, then this yields a TMRCA of at least 5100 ybp (3089 BC) for European R-L23+.

PS: I did not try to correct for back mutations, because I wasn't calculating TMRCA but comparing the relative variance of R-L23+ to G-P15+ in Europe. So, I am well aware that there might be back mutations that have occurred in R-L23+, but there are also back mutations that have occurred in G-P15+. I'm assuming that the correcting factors would be close enough to each other as to assume their ratio would be 1.

Well a date of European L23* of c. 3100BC give or take some centuries is very close to the models a lot of people are coming up with using variance for L23 derived clades.  I cant see any evidence suggesting a movement into Europe from south of the Black Sea at that time but there was clearly movement into the east end of the Danube from the steppes.  So perhaps my earlier guessology (using the L23* variance map) that L23* went from a high variance area (eastern Turkey, Armenia?) through or around the Caucuses into the steppe and became part of the mix there among the steppe groups and then were swept into the Lower Danube area etc.  Which is very Kurgan modelesque.  It certainly looks from the L23* variance map that L23* most likely got to Romania c. 3000BC through a route like that.  I am suprised I have never really looked at that map with my brain in gear before. However it seems clear to me that variance drops off in western Turkey and and drops way off on the Aegean coasts and a route for L23* into Romania by a circuitous route round the east and north shore of the Black Sea actually makes more sense.  

I dont know what that would all mean in terms of IE.  it could be fitted into the Kurgan theories with dairy farmers inputting into the steppes and teaching the hunters crucial aspects of what would become PIE culture.  So, PIE society was a blend of two strands and without one or the other it simply wouldnt have become the PIE society that has been reconstructed.  


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 17, 2012, 05:55:42 PM
I thought it would be interesting to compare the newly released data for European G-P15+(Rootsi.et.al.2012) to the data for European R1b-L23+(Myres.et.al.2010). .....
What stands out, is that the variance of European R-L23+ is about ~0.74 that of European G-P15+. G-P15+ has been found earliest in a Cardial site in Avellaner, Catalonia dating back to 5000 BC. If fix the TMRCA of European G-P15+ as being at least 7000 ybp, then this yields a TMRCA of at least 5100 ybp (3089 BC) for European R-L23+....  
That's a very illustrative comparison. No matter what the problems there might be with STR issues, there other subclades, i.e. G-P15, appears relatively older (or at least more diverse) in Europe than R-L23.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Humanist on May 17, 2012, 05:58:50 PM
and a futher thought is if L23* moved out of northern Mesopotamia and was already in the steppes, Anatolia and the Balkans in three seperated groups in say 4000BC then that also bears a bit of a parallel to the PIE/Anatolian split.

Anyway before getting too complicated, I would ask for opinions on this - if L23" was one of the groups (presimably a dairy element infiltratng) in the steppes say 4000BC and they were among R1a hunters morphing inot nomadic pastoralists then who is to say which one of the two groups actually spoke IE first?  Perhaps the north Mesopotamian L23 pushed into Anatolia (and maybe also crossing the Bosphorus) in one branch and another headed through the Caucuses into the steppes. That sort of scenario does bear some resemblence to the linguistic one where the Anatolian branch split off early from the group who were to become PIE.   I am not saying that happened but I cant see any reasson why it is not an option. 

I just want to add a couple of thoughts to it:

1-This is a paragroup, which is L23(xM412/L51), I too did the calculations of variance for the paragroup L23*, and found it to be the oldest at the Caucasus, however, this was only observed when all Caucasian populations were sampled as a whole, individually, the variance decayed greatly.  You can find more about it here:  http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Herreraetal2010L23xL51data.jpg (http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Myresetal2010Herreraetal2010L23xL51data.jpg)

2-The graph you provided shows Isoclines based on the data collected from Table-S2, more specifically it shows the Coalescent times rather than the variance. Myres et al(2010) used the evolutionary rate to calculate those coalescence times. The main problem here, is that the data for L23* is as follows:

Greece(n=15) TD=6763 ybp
Slovakia(n=10) TD=5153 ybp
Switzerland(n=10) TD=7246 ybp
Hungary(n=7) TD=5952 ybp
Romania(n=12) TD=11199 ybp
Caucasus(n=32) TD=12217 ybp
Bashkirs(n=29) TD=1624 ybp
Pakistan(n=5) TD=14493
Turkey(n=58) TD=11057 ybp
Italy(n=14) TD=9526 ybp
Poland(n=7) TD=3106 ybp

Those dates were used to construct the map you provided:

 http://rokus01.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/l23.png (http://rokus01.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/l23.png)

As you can see the reason why it appears as if Northern Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan have such an old date, is due to the anomalous results from Pakistan, which are likely due to the small sample size. However given that we have no data from Iran, at least not from Myres et al(2010), it is really hard to come to any reasonable conclusion that L23 originated in Northern Mesopotamia. Something else to look at, is that the TD of Romania, and of Turkey are very similar, and this is something I observed in my own calculations of Variance for L23(xL51). However, my results differ from theirs, in that I calculate the modal in a locus basis, whereas they do it finding the median haplotype per population.  If I was forced to postulate a hypothesis based on the data published by Myres et al(2010); I would say that given the relatively significant presence of R1b-M269(xL23) in the Balkans, and the relatively significant variance of R1b-L23(xL51) in Romania, that L23 was born somewhere near Romania either to the West of it, or to the East of it.

It is not hard to imagine.  Although, again, I am not suggesting N Mesopotamia as its point of origin, considering the lack of sampling from several of the minority populations of the general region, including the two most significant Assyrian churches.  Not to mention, certain areas of Europe, and other parts of the world.  Plus, I still have a feeling that this is not its origin.  I would look to the Levant, the Caucasus, Armenian Highland, and perhaps even NW Iran first.   

N Mesopotamian  Nine of the ten STRs from Myres et al. 

Code:
393 390 19 391 388 439 389 392 389
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
12 23 12 11 12 12 13 14 28
12 24 13 11 12 13 13 14 30
12 24 13 10 12 12 14 13 30
12 24 14 10 12 12 13 14 29
12 24 14 11 12 12 13 13 29
12 24 14 10 12 12 12 13 26
12 24 15 11 12 12 12 14 27
12 25 14 11 12 12 12 14 28
12 25 14 10 12 12 13 14 29
12 26 14 11 12 13 13 14 29
13 24 14 10 12 11 14 13 30
13 24 14 11 12 12 14 13 30


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 17, 2012, 06:09:08 PM
It is not hard to imagine.  Although, again, I am not suggesting N Mesopotamia as its point of origin, considering the lack of sampling from several of the minority populations of the general region, including the two most significant Assyrian churches.  Not to mention, certain areas of Europe, and other parts of the world.  Plus, I still have a feeling that this is not its origin.  I would look to the Levant, the Caucasus, Armenian Highland, and perhaps even NW Iran first.   

N Mesopotamian  Nine of the ten STRs from Myres et al. 

Code:
393 390 19 391 388 439 389 392 389
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
12 23 12 11 12 12 13 14 28
12 24 13 11 12 13 13 14 30
12 24 13 10 12 12 14 13 30
12 24 14 10 12 12 13 14 29
12 24 14 11 12 12 13 13 29
12 24 14 10 12 12 12 13 26
12 24 15 11 12 12 12 14 27
12 25 14 11 12 12 12 14 28
12 25 14 10 12 12 13 14 29
12 26 14 11 12 13 13 14 29
13 24 14 10 12 11 14 13 30
13 24 14 11 12 12 14 13 30


Where  did you get those haplotypes, and to what haplogroup(i.e. M269(xL23), L23(xL51), etc) do they belong? I certainly have analyzed Myres.et.al.2010 deeply and there is nothing on Iran, the only haplotype listed on Supplementary Table-3 from Iran is 1-R1b-M269(xL23), and that is about it.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 17, 2012, 06:16:28 PM
Ok, here they are.  I removed Hts with dual, missing, or obvious errors (ie -9) STR alleles in the spread sheet.
 

Thanks!!!

Yeah, I also removed the samples that were missing some STRs, and I also noticed the -9 thing, I thought about changing it to 9, but then I just deleted it. It made  me laugh a little, how does one get -9 repeats?

Not once but three or four -9's..... has to be  typo but I didnt wish to assume as there was enough other HTs to work with.  I wasnt sure of how to consolidate the mutli alleles reported in DYS19. Is it alway the lowest or the highest number of the set? Do you know?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Humanist on May 17, 2012, 06:23:16 PM
It is not hard to imagine.  Although, again, I am not suggesting N Mesopotamia as its point of origin, considering the lack of sampling from several of the minority populations of the general region, including the two most significant Assyrian churches.  Not to mention, certain areas of Europe, and other parts of the world.  Plus, I still have a feeling that this is not its origin.  I would look to the Levant, the Caucasus, Armenian Highland, and perhaps even NW Iran first.   

N Mesopotamian  Nine of the ten STRs from Myres et al. 

Code:
393 390 19 391 388 439 389 392 389
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
13 24 14 10 12 12 14 13 30
12 23 12 11 12 12 13 14 28
12 24 13 11 12 13 13 14 30
12 24 13 10 12 12 14 13 30
12 24 14 10 12 12 13 14 29
12 24 14 11 12 12 13 13 29
12 24 14 10 12 12 12 13 26
12 24 15 11 12 12 12 14 27
12 25 14 11 12 12 12 14 28
12 25 14 10 12 12 13 14 29
12 26 14 11 12 13 13 14 29
13 24 14 10 12 11 14 13 30
13 24 14 11 12 12 14 13 30


Where  did you get those haplotypes, and to what haplogroup(i.e. M269(xL23), L23(xL51), etc) do they belong? I certainly have analyzed Myres.et.al.2010 deeply and there is nothing on Iran, the only haplotype listed on Supplementary Table-3 from Iran is 1-R1b-M269(xL23), and that is about it.

The haplotypes are from the Assyrian project, Aramaic project, and one Assyrian man from SMGF.  Please let me point out that none of these haplotypes are "from" Iran, regardless of what may be listed as country of origin.  We have lived in many countries over the last several centuries, for various reasons.  However, if you follow the autosomal projects (Dodecad, Eurogenes, Harappa), one thing is exceedingly clear, our genes are principally northern Mesopotamian (basically, what is today extreme N Iraq).  And this does not even begin to touch on the linguistic, cultural, and other ties to the region, supporting the same conclusion.

The men with DYS393=13 are most similar to the Alawite men of NW Syria.  Who in turn are most similar to both Assyrians and Druze.  The Druze are the carriers of what appears to be the AMH.  I do not mean to spam the forum with this data, over and over again, but, this is what I am referring to:

Atlantic Modal Haplotype
13-24-14-11-11-14-12-12-12-13-13-29

Druze R1b modal and secondary haplotype (Shlush et al.)
13-24-14-11-xx-xx-12-12-xx-13-13-29
12-24-14-11-xx-xx-12-12-xx-13-13-29

Alawite R1b modal and secondary haplotype (Dönbak et al.)
13-24-14-11-11-15-xx-xx-xx-14-13-30
13-24-14-11-11-15-xx-xx-xx-13-13-29

Assyrian R1b modal haplotype (FTDNA)
13-24-14-10-11-14-12-12-12-14-13-30


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on May 17, 2012, 06:37:00 PM
^ Are all those haplotypes R-L23+? If so, I already calculated the variance, and compared that, to the variance for the different R-L23+ subpopulations from Myres et al(2010) using the 9 STRs you provided.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 17, 2012, 07:27:57 PM
Nice work Mark.  It is interesting that the G subclades appear in a wider neolithic time-frame.

One thing about R1b M269* and everything M269+ is the dates almost always come out to the 3rd millenium and later on Ken's Generations7 for 67 marker haplotypes.  

Thanks. I was in the mode of moving data so I thought I would help JeanL and just compile the data available and run it. I didnt realize that there was that may subclades.  To sum up the G2a coalescence generations and ages, the list is below.

You mentioned the period of G2 but there is a huge amount of Caucasus HT's in the oldest P15  and P16 which would be Eneolithic/Bronze ages in Middle East: 4500 to 3300 BC? 1.5K back to founder suggests a very small, if any, growth but around 5K Ybp must have had substantial growth in the Caucasus after first 60 generations or so. After that a SNP mutation occurs on an average of every 11 generations or 275 years. Is that a way to look at it?


G-P15 Founder GA=   269   6,726
G-P16 GB coal=   208   5,208
G-P15 GA coal=   200   4,998
G-M285 GB coal=   171   4,275
G-P20 GB coal=   151   3,767
G-M406 GB coal=   143   3,575
G-M406 GB coal=   143   3,575
G-U1 GB coal=   126   3,150
R-L21 GB coal=   105   2,624
G-Page19 GB coal=   92   2,294
G-M527 GB coal=   89   2,235
G-L497 GB coal=   83   2,082
G-M485 GB coal=   82   2,038
G-L91 GB coal=   78   1,959
G-M377 GB coal=   70   1,758

And about R-L21, it had been running 3.5- 4.0k ybp but lately in the 111 marker HTs with 435 births per mutation ocurrance (0.3% Rate) as per MarkoH. Would that suggest that a larger number of males born per a single male parent continuing with many generations as in a faster lineage expansion into more branches as shown in the coalescence age estimate?

I prevously I simply performed a counting of mutations from MikeW's Extended 111 marker haplotypes with only L21 positive tested kits and it show 13,912 mutations in 635 haplotypes.  

I sent this and other info to Anatole Klyosov and he told me last month that "It gives you 13,912/635 = 21.91 mutations per 111-marker haplotype, accumulated over the time from the presumably common ancestor. Since you know that the mutation rate constant for the 111 marker haplotype equals to 0.198, you immediately obtain 21.91/0.198 = 111-->124 generations, or 3100+/-310 years to the common ancestor. Actually, it is a strange figure. It is not L21. It might indeed be a phantom "common ancestor", a superposition of a number of them from different subclades. I bet the tree gives a number of branches." (*A range of 2,790 to 3,410 Ybp, I actually calculated 3,075 Ybp in my modded spreadsheet)"

Now Ken's Generation 111T shows (edit- Using 15 markers only):
N=648   L21 GB coal=119.5 is 2,988.6Ybp. The GB(founder)=130.0  is 3,249.8Ybp (we need sigma results in the excel sheet)

Both are methods are now similar, and the age of L21 have been running 3,750-4K Ybp, Ok whats up with Ken and AK's younger age?

MJost

Edit:
The mutation counting was with all 111 markers in MikeW L21 Extented spread sheet. Here is the Generation 111T using the full set of STRs less the ones Ken doesnt use.

YrsPerGen   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP     Founder   Generations YBP
25   N=648   GB coal=   119.5   2,988.2   GB=   133.3   3,331.6

Its a WOW on the closeness of 15 vs 100 markers used in Ken's Generation 111T

MJost


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on May 17, 2012, 08:39:24 PM
Based on Mikewww's use of Ken's spreadsheet, L21 seems to be somewhat older. Here is the link: http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10580.msg130967#msg130967 (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10580.msg130967#msg130967)


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 18, 2012, 09:12:25 AM
Based on Mikewww's use of Ken's spreadsheet, L21 seems to be somewhat older. Here is the link: http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10580.msg130967#msg130967 (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10580.msg130967#msg130967)

I think the difference is due to the use of MarkoH's faster mutation rates basically. There shouldnt be variance between the 67 vs 111 marker, and assuming mike used 25 yr generations.
MJost


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 18, 2012, 10:05:19 AM
Based on Mikewww's use of Ken's spreadsheet, L21 seems to be somewhat older. Here is the link: http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10580.msg130967#msg130967 (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10580.msg130967#msg130967)

I think the difference is due to the use of MarkoH's faster mutation rates basically. There shouldnt be variance between the 67 vs 111 marker, and assuming mike used 25 yr generations.
MJost

I used 30 years/generation in all of those graphics I built a couple of months ago. That was under Ken's Gen 7 methodology and for 67 STR haplotypes only.  I literally had thousands of haplotypes for some subclades and at least hundreds.  I don't know why the 111 STR haplotypes calculations would be different, but it is a much more limited sample size of haplotypes.   If you really compare the methodologies and mutation rates used, you probably should re-run the same 111 STR haplotypes but for 67 STRs only.

We should also keep in mind that the graphics Richard R is looking at are mostly interclade ages between pairs of subclades.  They put maximums on the ages of the underlying SNP TMRCAs and Coalescence ages.  All of these numbers are also within probability ranges, not really single number estimates.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 18, 2012, 10:52:57 AM
L21 Tested only x425Nul 67 Markers kits only

YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP
30   N=2555   GB coal=   131.5   3,943.6   GB=   147.8   4,433.1
   
                     
TMRCA      Founder               
30      GAB=   194.1   5,824.2   

then at 25yr Gen's

YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP
25   N=2555   GB coal=   131.5   3,286.3   GB=   147.8   3,694.3
                  
TMRCA      Founder               
25      GAB=   194.1   4,853.5         
      
What should the rule be for using a specific number of years for a Generation?? With this entire L21 I dont see that 30 years is correct over thousands of years. Just in the last 1K years only. The founders age difference is about 1K yrs.

MJost



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on May 18, 2012, 11:10:31 AM
The beaker phase was always the latest period when a Europe-wide lineage spread that had the ability to become dominant looks possible in the archaeological record and until recent year even that would have been surprising.  Post-beaker dates after 2000BC would be simply impossible to make sense of from the archaeological record for a Europe-wide spread of lineages moving to dominance.  The interclade dates for L21, P312 as a whole, L51* calculated by Mike etc do fit beatifully with the beaker period spread.  So I would have huge doubts about any dates coming in in the 2nd millenium unless they are intraclades.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jdean on May 18, 2012, 12:40:23 PM
What should the rule be for using a specific number of years for a Generation?? With this entire L21 I dont see that 30 years is correct over thousands of years. Just in the last 1K years only. The founders age difference is about 1K yrs.

MJost




I saw something donkeys ago saying anthropology studies supported longer no. of yrs per generation than used by most genealogists and mentioned that here. Unfortunately I couldn't remember where I'd seen it and at the time failed to locate a reference.

Since then I did come across an article which I saved to my computer (which I typically can't find :) but I think this one (which I just googled) covers the subject quite well.

http://www.google.co.uk/url?q=http://www.johnbrobb.com/Content/DNA/How_Long_Is_A_Human_Generation.pdf&sa=U&ei=Vna2T9bzNsmw0QW1yZmxCg&ved=0CCIQFjAF&usg=AFQjCNFLieocNgUOxt19oisTvsi1AvyM9g (http://www.google.co.uk/url?q=http://www.johnbrobb.com/Content/DNA/How_Long_Is_A_Human_Generation.pdf&sa=U&ei=Vna2T9bzNsmw0QW1yZmxCg&ved=0CCIQFjAF&usg=AFQjCNFLieocNgUOxt19oisTvsi1AvyM9g)

As it happens the average age over 12 generations in my line is just over 35 yrs, though of course that is relatively recent history.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 19, 2012, 09:40:51 AM
Yes I have seen a few articles that show recent Genelogical time frame such as:
 http://www.ancestry.ca/learn/learningcenters/default.aspx?section=lib_generation

There are some Pay to Play reports such as:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajpa.20188/references

I too seem to have read articles concerning the 1st millennium average familial generation length much shorter. I did read the Population Simulation paper
http://tedlab.mit.edu/~dr/Papers/Rohde-MRCA-two.pdf

In the Discussion section,

"The length of the sims' lives is governed by a formula
based on data from the United States between 1900 and
1930, skewed to produce average life spans of 51.8 years
for those reaching adulthood. It is not clear if this is a
reasonable assumption and may be an overestimate of average
lifespans prior to modern medicine and widespread
agriculture
. The fact that a generation in the model is
taken to be 30 years may seem rather long, but it results
from the mean age of a newborn's parents, with mothers
averaging a bit under 28 years old and fathers just over 33."

Underlining was added by me.

MJost



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 19, 2012, 09:56:02 AM
Another issue is in the smaller groups prior to modern technology, each generation has to teach a subsequent generation to perform tasks for continuted survival. Considering a much lower life expectancy, it would seem a younger start in male reproduction?

MJost 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 19, 2012, 10:15:44 AM
Another issue is in the smaller groups prior to modern technology, each generation has to teach a subsequent generation to perform tasks for continuted survival. Considering a much lower life expectancy, it would seem a younger start in male reproduction?

I've seen some recommendations to use 30 years/gen for the last 1000 years and 25 years/gen for any time estimates than 1000 years.  In other words, use 30 years/gen for any TMRCA less than 33 generations (1000 years) and if the generations (G) are greater then use  G - 33 / 25 (years/gen) + 1000.

I'm not sure that it matters so much because these things are not that precise and we have other issues, like possible STR linearity durations, that may be underestimating age.  The 30 year/gen may balance that out.  We don't know its just not that precise.

However, I think it is a point well taken that these time estimates are not always underestimating age. They "most likely" midpoint time estimates could just as easily be overestimating as underestimating age.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: chris1 on May 19, 2012, 11:26:39 AM
Another issue is in the smaller groups prior to modern technology, each generation has to teach a subsequent generation to perform tasks for continuted survival. Considering a much lower life expectancy, it would seem a younger start in male reproduction?

I've seen some recommendations to use 30 years/gen for the last 1000 years and 25 years/gen for any time estimates than 1000 years.  In other words, use 30 years/gen for any TMRCA less than 33 generations (1000 years) and if the generations (G) are greater then use  G - 33 / 25 (years/gen) + 1000.

I'm not sure that it matters so much because these things are not that precise and we have other issues, like possible STR linearity durations, that may be underestimating age.  The 30 year/gen may balance that out.  We don't know its just not that precise.

However, I think it is a point well taken that these time estimates are not always underestimating age. They "most likely" midpoint time estimates could just as easily be overestimating as underestimating age.
Not wanting to add more confusion but I made a note of (Ken Nordtvedt's?) advice on generation length for an early 111T version I tried using but I can't find where I saw it now:

 "YrsPerGen*

*Suggest -Enter A2 or A4  or A8 as 25 if less than 1000 years else 30 if more than 1000 yrs or your own family rate."


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 19, 2012, 03:35:31 PM
This is from my modification and my notes. I usually delete this note before posting. Example:

YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP   MoD
25   N=5   GA coal=   146.2   3,654.6   GA=   186.1   4,652.8   Mjost
YrsPerGen*   Count   AGE   Generations   YBP   Founder   Generations   YBP   4/1/2012
25   N=2555   GB coal=   131.5   3,286.3   GB=   147.8   3,694.3   
*Suggest -Enter A2 or A4  or A8 as 25 if less than 1000 years else 30 if more than 1000 yrs or your own family rate.                        
59 Markers                        
TMRCA      Founder                  
25      GAB=   194.1   4,853.5            


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 19, 2012, 07:52:33 PM
@All

Maybe this is the paper you may know of.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1288116/pdf/AJHGv66p651.pdf

MJost


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jdean on May 20, 2012, 07:02:36 AM
@All

Maybe this is the paper you may know of.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1288116/pdf/AJHGv66p651.pdf

MJost

Thanks, I've saved it to somewhere sensible on my PC so maybe I'll be able to lay my hands on it next time I'm thinking about this subject !!

I think the major point in this paper is those that die younger have less impact on the overall age per generation.

It's particularly interesting that the study on the hunting and gathering !Kung (unfortunately unavailable online) drew remarkably similar conclusions.

It seems to me that the driving force is human nature or our biological clocks.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on May 20, 2012, 09:18:21 AM
Here is a paper that uses 25 years per generation on deep ancestry.

https://genographic.nationalgeographic.com/staticfiles/genographic/StaticFiles/ProjectUpdates/Woflgang.pdf

We now have a great interclade model from KenN which a statical generation engine. Years per generation standard is now required. So where should a specific age lines be drawn? maybe a layered approach should be used.

Example:
1) Unders 500 years of coalescence age estimate for a clade then use 33 years per generation.
2) between 501 to 2,500 years of coalescence age estimate for clade then use 29 years
3) Over 2,500 years of coalescence age estimate for clade then use 25 years

Any ideas?

MJost


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jdean on May 20, 2012, 11:04:33 AM
Here is a paper that uses 25 years per generation on deep ancestry.

https://genographic.nationalgeographic.com/staticfiles/genographic/StaticFiles/ProjectUpdates/Woflgang.pdf

We now have a great interclade model from KenN which a statical generation engine. Years per generation standard is now required. So where should a specific age lines be drawn? maybe a layered approach should be used.

Example:
1) Unders 500 years of coalescence age estimate for a clade then use 33 years per generation.
2) between 501 to 2,500 years of coalescence age estimate for clade then use 29 years
3) Over 2,500 years of coalescence age estimate for clade then use 25 years

Any ideas?

MJost

Yes but they only used 25 yrs per generation, they didn't even explain why they thought this figure better than others.

Personally I don't really see why the figure should change dramatically between 500 yrs, 1000 or 1500 yrs ago the motivating forces would still be the same.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 21, 2012, 01:23:05 PM
I let you know that Malagodi, as I had easily foreseen, resulted R-L51+ and has been put amongst the L51 in the “ht35 FTDNA project”.
I make you know that he is so far the most varied with

DYS19=13
DYS455=10
DYS437=17
DYS449=32
DYS460=10
H4=12
DYS456=17
DYS442=10
DYF406F1=12
DYS557=17
DYS487=14


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on May 21, 2012, 02:07:55 PM
I let you know that Malagodi, as I had easily foreseen, resulted R-L51+ and has been put amongst the L51 in the “ht35 FTDNA project”.
I make you know that he is so far the most varied with

DYS19=13
DYS455=10
DYS437=17
DYS449=32
DYS460=10
H4=12
DYS456=17
DYS442=10
DYF406F1=12
DYS557=17
DYS487=14


Ask Klyosov, Nordtvedt, Vizachero (if he is still alive) and also Jean Manco (if she understands something of MR “trans stelas”) how much time it needs so that
DYS19 from 14 becomes 13 (MR: 0,001676)
DYS455 from 11 becomes 10 (MR: 0,000274)
DYS437 from 15 becomes 17 (MR: 0,00083)
DYS449 from 30 becomes 32 (MR: 0,008337)
DYS460 from 11 becomes 10 (MR: 0,003307)
H4 from 11 becomes 12 (MR: 0,002365)
DYS456 from 16 becomes 17 (MR: 0,005386)
DYS442 from 12 becomes 10 (MR: 0,003286)
DYF406S1 from 10 becomes 12 (MR: 0,001607)
DYS557 from 16 becomes 17 (MR: 0,0035)
DYS487 from 13 becomes 14 (MR: 0,00079)


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on May 21, 2012, 05:37:02 PM
....
Ask Klyosov, Nordtvedt, Vizachero (if he is still alive) and also Jean Manco (if she understands something of MR “trans stelas”) how much time it needs so that
DYS19 from 14 becomes 13 (MR: 0,001676)...
It only takes one generation for a mutation to happen, no matter how slow the STR mutation rate.  Multiple mutations can happen in one generations. Multi-step generations can happen in one generation.  

The problem is looking at any single haplotype and trying to build a TMRCA from it or some other hypothesis.  We can drown in crossing a river with average depth of three feet.  It is clearly advantageous to have significant sample sizes so that adequate statistical averages can be applied.

Further discussion TMRCAs or statistics should probably occur over on the STR Wars thread or TMRCA thread.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Heber on May 24, 2012, 03:37:25 AM
The beaker phase was always the latest period when a Europe-wide lineage spread that had the ability to become dominant looks possible in the archaeological record and until recent year even that would have been surprising.  Post-beaker dates after 2000BC would be simply impossible to make sense of from the archaeological record for a Europe-wide spread of lineages moving to dominance.  The interclade dates for L21, P312 as a whole, L51* calculated by Mike etc do fit beatifully with the beaker period spread.  So I would have huge doubts about any dates coming in in the 2nd millenium unless they are intraclades.

I am reading "Empires of the Word, A Language History of the World", by Nicolas Ostler.

"There are many ways of recounting the history of the world - via the rise and fall of civilisations, the fortunes of nation states, socio-economic systems and patterns, the development of technology, or the chronology of war and military prowess. This book tells the story through the rise and decline of languages. It is a compelling read, one of the most interesting books I have read in a long while."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2005/mar/12/featuresreviews.guardianreview3

In his description of the development of Celtic languages he seems to support the theory of Atlantic Celtic from the West and Cunliffe's idea of a Lingua Franca on the Atlantic Facade.
Two maps from the book illustrate clearly the division of pCeltic and qCeltic which he distinguishes as Atlantic Celtic and Eastern Celtic and the migration path of Atlantic Celtic along a maritime route and subsequent overlay with Phoenician.
The latter map bears an interesting resemblance to the route of L51* and subsequent path of P312.

http://db.tt/4ri6L4kE

http://db.tt/BGtzwlsf






Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alexandromir on May 26, 2012, 05:32:21 AM
Greetings from Bucharest fellow hobbyists!  I'm glad to see another good site coming together where we can truly be the vanguard of this new science....because that is exactly what we are...not many other fields where people like us can actually make a difference!

After the disappointment of approaching who I felt was the best brain among us for advice on how I could best spend my resources to fill in the black hole of the N Balkans with high-res tests (he stopped answering my questions after I suggested I wanted to approach Polako for help with the R1A's) I got somewhat sidetracked with finishing off a home in S Romania (Zimnicea) and building myself a tennis court there.  However, I still want to proceed but I don't have the time to do it all myself, I need someone to approach FTDNA to get me a good deal on circa 30,000$ worth of kits-and I will do the rest....and post it ALL online so YOU all can get cracking at realizing my intuition that this is where most of us came from.  I guess VV got scared thinking I wanted something from him besides advice....not to back my "outlandish" theories, LOL!

I am NOT that rich, I DON'T want to waste my time and money, but this is something I truly believe in.

BTW, Iplan to include eye color, height, and many other things in the data so we can learn much more than we do from these  studies these "Pro's" do.

My main question is--Why the  isn't one of you rich fucks doing this too?  How often these days can we amateurs actually pretend it's like it was in the 19th century where we can do something cool for so little $$....I doubt even the Romanian academy of sciences will want to pitch in...maybe I'll ask the EU:p...... 'em, even if nothing comes of the data, I can think of no nobler way of spending my time and money!!

Love you guys....and,, Romanian girls are soooooo hot!


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: razyn on May 26, 2012, 06:10:35 AM
Hey, you actually showed up before coming back from Romania -- I had about given up.  Welcome aboard, but watch your language, this forum actually has a moderator.  As distinguished from the 'orrible "forumbiodiversity," where the GenX potty-mouth set gets to run things.

The other thread here that I already recommended for you is this one:

http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10621.msg130900#msg130900

Since then there has been a lot of chatter about DF27, mainly because new test results show that it seems to include many of the guys who used to be P312*.  That "new" SNP would be interesting to find in Romania.  Also L11*, if there still is such a thing. 

Getting a range of Romanian samples will be a very good start, but save a little of your budget for having them tested intelligently.  The groundwork for that is being laid, but the target moves frequently.  Anyway, I'm glad you have found where the knowledge-based discussion is going on (here, and on the Yahoo group for R-P312 and Subclades).

Good luck with your collecting effort -- I hope somebody knows how to get you a couple hundred little bottles with FTDNA bar codes, but I don't.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 13, 2012, 06:29:01 PM
I copied this over from another thread because we are getting into a discussion of L51 descendants (L11).

Why might we be interested in the intersection between R1b1a2(M269)'s and R1b1a1(M73)'s territories?
We might consider that their overlapping territory might be a good place to look for their common father, R1b1a(P297)
.

Such scenario assumes that all R1b1a(P297) was confined to a single region, and that mutations M269 and M73 arose in that same region, it is equally likely that R1b1a(P297) started expanding, and while expanding the M269 mutation arose, and became successful amongst the P297 pool, then at a later or earlier time you had a different expansion where the M73 mutation arose, or even the R1b-V88. So, an intersection might not really give you any details, for all you know that region simply absorbed both M269 and M73, and has nothing to do with P297. Do you think R1b-L21, R1b-Z196 and R1b-U152 all arose in the same area, or in an area that was relatively close?

Yes.  

It's probably important to describe what we mean by "relatively close" but I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that L21, DF27 (older than Z196) and U152 all arose from somewhere along Mediterranean France through the Alpine regions (lower/middle Rhone, upper Rhine or upper Danube.)

I think that U106 is not too distantly related must be kept into account as well.

It is phylogenetically demonstratable that from L51, descends L11, then P312 and U106, etc. These are real people, not just groups. There was one most recent common ancestor of P312 and U106 and he was an L11* person, himself. He had to be younger than L11 and older than P312 or U106, whichever is oldest.

The real issues are just time and space.  Space relates to the terrain, distance, routes, risks and technologies available for transport.  Time is needed to move travel from one place to the next (without a transporter.)  Remember, one has to travel and then survive if not thrive on the other end to leave descendants. An aspect of time calculation is TMRCA aging.  The closer P312, U106, U152, L2, L21, DF27 are in age the more close their origins were likely to be.

The geography I described may be wrong, but time and space limitations indicate these large L11 clades were relatively close in origin.

By the way, this works in some real family genealogy circumstances too.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 13, 2012, 07:59:16 PM
Yes. 

It's probably important to describe what we mean by "relatively close" but I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that L21, DF27 (older than Z196) and U152 all arose from somewhere along Mediterranean France through the Alpine regions (lower/middle Rhone, upper Rhine or upper Danube.)

Not really, L21 could have been born in NW France, U152 in a region around Austria, Switzerland or SE France, and DF27 could have been born in Iberia. We will have to look at the variance of each, and see where the variance peaks, and investigate it. Also, P312 being slightly older than L21, U152 or DF27 isn’t an inconvenience, and does not relate to them being born relatively close, it simply means that most of its other lines have gone extinct, hence why its TMRCA resembles that of the oldest of the L21, U152 or DF27 clades. 

I think that U106 is not too distantly related must be kept into account as well.

It is phylogenetically demonstratable that from L51, descends L11, then P312 and U106, etc. These are real people, not just groups. There was one most recent common ancestor of P312 and U106 and he was an L11* person, himself. He had to be younger than L11 and older than P312 or U106, whichever is oldest.

From the data thus far observed, we can safely conclude that U106 was not born anywhere near Western Europe, perhaps Eastern Germany, but that’s about it. So what if they descend from L51, L11, etc, it doesn’t change the fact that U106 could descend from an L11 person living in Estonia, whereas P312 descend from a different L11 person living in France.

The real issues are just time and space.  Space relates to the terrain, distance, routes, risks and technologies available for transport.  Time is needed to move travel from one place to the next (without a transporter.)  Remember, one has to travel and then survive if not thrive on the other end to leave descendants. An aspect of time calculation is TMRCA aging.  The closer P312, U106, U152, L2, L21, DF27 are in age the more close their origins were likely to be.

Not really, who is to say that P312 and U106 weren’t born at relatively close times in locations 1000 miles apart. Is there anything against that?


The geography I described may be wrong, but time and space limitations indicate these large L11 clades were relatively close in origin.

I see no indication of anything, you are simply postulating a probability, that is just as likely as many others. Their similar TMRCA doesn’t translate them into being born relatively close, that just not proven.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: rms2 on June 13, 2012, 08:54:27 PM
A healthy person with sufficient supplies can walk from Moscow to the English Channel in a single summer.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 08:29:25 AM
A healthy person with sufficient supplies can walk from Moscow to the English Channel in a single summer.

I've seen Spencer Wells description of what he calls the Eurasian super-highway. I've often wondered if it really doesn't make more sense for R1b to have come north around the Carpathians.  Would this be a decent way to reach the Hungarian Plains versus up the Danube River and through the Iron Gate? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Gate_(Danube) .

Nevertheless, I guess what you are saying is that a rapid spread through Northern Europe is possible.

There are additional aspects of travel in foreign lands that make establishing colonies a bit more complex.
The real issues are just time and space.  Space relates to the terrain, distance, routes, risks and technologies available for transport.  Time is needed to move travel from one place to the next (without a transporter.)  Remember, one has to travel and then survive if not thrive on the other end to leave descendants.

In this case, one's legs are quite adequate for carry oneself, although in 3000 BC,  I doubt there were many bridges across the rivers from Moscow to the English Channel. To come through and out on the other side of a trek through foreign lands, and thrive, the logistics of perhaps bringing families, goods, weapons, livestock, etc. all come into play, all which have to cross the rivers as well as mountain passes (on other routes.)

There were lone trappers and hunters immigrating into the Old West, but even Lewis and Clark were not just two, but an expedition.  My guess is the colonizers were organized expeditions.  In these ancient times their probably would have been a lot of related people.... brothers? cousins ? 2nd cousins?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 08:38:40 AM
... It's probably important to describe what we mean by "relatively close" but I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that L21, DF27 (older than Z196) and U152 all arose from somewhere along Mediterranean France through the Alpine regions (lower/middle Rhone, upper Rhine or upper Danube.)

Not really, L21 could have been born in NW France, U152 in a region around Austria, Switzerland or SE France, and DF27 could have been born in Iberia. We will have to look at the variance of each, and see where the variance peaks, and investigate it. Also, P312 being slightly older than L21, U152 or DF27 isn’t an inconvenience, and does not relate to them being born relatively close, it simply means that most of its other lines have gone extinct, hence why its TMRCA resembles that of the oldest of the L21, U152 or DF27 clades.  

I agree with you L21 could have been born in NW France. It's diversity is high there. It could have been born in England for that matter, its diversity is quite high there as well.  Benelux/N.France are just the other end, downstream to boot, of the Rhine from points I'm speculating about as launch points.

Something I want to clarify that can be confusing is that I'm not necessarily talking about the SNPs themselves.  We don't really care about the SNPs. No person knows what anothers SNPs were, they just know they are brothers, cousins, speak the same languages, etc., etc.     What I'm saying here is what is important are the actual lineages. SNPs are just markers (or sign posts) put up long the line. An SNP may be at the tip of the branch or base of it. We don't know, but just the more SNPs the merrier as we can then begin to layout the whole sequence.

Let's not get into the details of TMRCAs there but let's just suppose that Ken Nordtvedt's method for interclade TMRCA calculations works. The below chart is based on thousands of 67 STR haplotypes.
(https://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R-L11_Subclades_Timeline.gif)

The Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA) for P312 and U106 are not much older than U152 or L21.  To some this may seem incredible, but another way to confirm this closeness of relationship is to just look at the modals for these large, old subclades.  Everything coalesces back to WAMH.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 09:13:39 AM
I think that U106 is not too distantly related must be kept into account as well.

It is phylogenetically demonstratable that from L51, descends L11, then P312 and U106, etc. These are real people, not just groups. There was one most recent common ancestor of P312 and U106 and he was an L11* person, himself. He had to be younger than L11 and older than P312 or U106, whichever is oldest.

From the data thus far observed, we can safely conclude that U106 was not born anywhere near Western Europe, perhaps Eastern Germany, but that’s about it. So what if they descend from L51, L11, etc, it doesn’t change the fact that U106 could descend from an L11 person living in Estonia, whereas P312 descend from a different L11 person living in France.

One of the difficulties of this whole topic is that U106 really does have a different distribution as compared to P312. We have to reconcile that with aging. The more closely that P312&U106 interclade MRCA man is in age to P312's MRCA and U106's MRCA, the more difficult it would have been for them to be great distances apart.

I don't know how to resolve this.  Please recognize I'm just speculating but one possible method of resolution is to track the river valleys and see where they coalesce.
(http://www.profudegeogra.eu/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Harta-raurilor-Europei.gif)
http://www.profudegeogra.eu/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Harta-raurilor-Europei.gif
Bands of people could travel from the Black Sea area up the Dniester or Dnieper and then cross over to the headwaters of the Vistula and travel along it to the Baltic.  Simultaneously, other bands could be traveling from the Black Sea area up the Danube to the Alpine region and SE France.

I notice you feel confident in stating "we can safely conclude that U106 was not born anywhere near Western Europe, perhaps Eastern Germany, but that’s about it."

If so, then perhaps this split of bands from the Dniester/Dnieper valleys to the Baltic would fit U106.

I have not given up on the idea that the U106 lineage came into Northern Europe more directly from the south after splitting with the groups of people coming up the Danube into Austria, Czech Rep or Hungary.  You know, Austria is not far from Eastern Germany.  In this scenario, some of the people traveling up the Danube crossed over to the headwaters of the Elbe and then moved north possibly crossing over to the adjacent Oder valley which dumps into the Baltic.

I do find it ironic that some of the old literature in this hobby described U106 people as "River Celts."


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 09:37:06 AM
Yes.  

It's probably important to describe what we mean by "relatively close" but I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that L21, DF27 (older than Z196) and U152 all arose from somewhere along Mediterranean France through the Alpine regions (lower/middle Rhone, upper Rhine or upper Danube.)
....
The real issues are just time and space.  Space relates to the terrain, distance, routes, risks and technologies available for transport.  Time is needed to move travel from one place to the next (without a transporter.)  Remember, one has to travel and then survive if not thrive on the other end to leave descendants. An aspect of time calculation is TMRCA aging.  The closer P312, U106, U152, L2, L21, DF27 are in age the more close their origins were likely to be.

Not really, who is to say that P312 and U106 weren’t born at relatively close times in locations 1000 miles apart. Is there anything against that?

Of course not. I'm just saying the closer in age these guys are, since they have a common "father", the more likely they were to be closer to each other.  Closeness is a relative term, I admit.  There is a generational, geographic distribution pattern in many family genealogies.  I see it mine despite this being the age of global travel.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 14, 2012, 09:37:08 AM
Let's not get into the details of TMRCAs there but let's just suppose that Ken Nordtvedt's method for interclade TMRCA calculations works. The below chart is based on thousands of 67 STR haplotypes.
(https://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R-L11_Subclades_Timeline.gif)

The Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA) for P312 and U106 are not much older than U152 or L21.  To some this may seem incredible, but another way to confirm this closeness of relationship is to just look at the modals for these large, old subclades.  Everything coalesces back to WAMH.

Ok Mike, with other things equal, what I am seeing is that the MRCA of P312 and U106 age, is likely underestimated, mainly due to the survival of two of its greatest branches. Like I said before, it’s a lot more complicated than that. Also, how well represented are each country in those “thousands” (I’m quite sure the thousands do not surpass the 15000 haplotype mark though) of haplotypes. Something I noticed very early on, was that often times in datasets one would have a group with a high variance but low sample size, and if the group was combined with another group with low variance but high sample size, the modal would definitely change, because modal=most frequent haplotype, and this would lead to the combined variance being lower than that of the other group prior to merging the sets. You wanna see it happening:

Myres.et.al.2010 R1b-L23+ variance calculations:

Western Europe(n=632) var=0.2309
Eastern Europe(n=180) var=0.2617
Western+Eastern Europe(n=812) var=0.2377


Regions in Western Europe:

Switzerland(n=78) var=0.2436
France(n=65) var=0.2415
Ireland(n=78) var=0.2205


So there you go, the mean variance of R1b-L23+ in Europe is actually lower than the variance observed in some regions in Western Europe. I know that you are doing interclade which is different, but the point is, that if L21, Z196, and U152 intraclade variance is subject to this effect, then the interclade would indirectly be subject to it also. In fact let’s take MarkoH chart which you posted in this site:

I1 intraclade TMRCA 5000 ybp, I2 intracalde TMRCA 18000 ybp, interclade between I1 and I2 18000 ybp.

Everything including R-P310 its getting an interclade of 11000 ybp because they are being compared with 11 haplotypes of R1b-M73, which is far from reliable. Now let’s get to the subject matter:
R1b-P312 intraclade 4300 ybp, R1b-P312 interclade 4500 ybp, why? Because R1b-U106 intraclade is 4500 ybp. So what I am seeing here, is that likely sampling bias is causing all this mess, hence why I like to stay away from FTDNA projects. Why do I say that:

Number of haplotypes from which the intraclade TMRCA of R1b-P312 was calculated 3403, number of haplotypes from which the intraclade TMRCA of R1b-L21 was calculated 2038. R1b-L21 makes almost 60% of the haplotypes from which R1b-P312 intraclade TMRCA was calculated. Where does R1b-L21 peaks? British Isles, not to say that all of the R1b-L21 there is British, but possibly a good 80% is. Here let’s looks at the sample sizes of the other big clades of R1b-P312, R1b-U152 intraclade was calculated off 439 haplotypes, that is almost 5 times smaller than the number of haplotypes for R1b-L21. R1b-Z196 was not included there but it can’t have more than 926 haplotypes. So, there you go, sampling bias at its best.

PS: Per the newest estimates posted by MarkoH:

R1b-P312 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 4376 haplotypes.
R1b-L21 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 2670 haplotypes.
R1b-U152 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 571 haplotypes.
R1b-Z196 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 281 haplotypes.


Do you think that is a representative sample of all R1b-P312+ derived clades in Western Europe? Or could we be in the presence of a majority of haplotypes hailing from the British Islands.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 09:50:07 AM
Let's not get into the details of TMRCAs there but let's just suppose that Ken Nordtvedt's method for interclade TMRCA calculations works. The below chart is based on thousands of 67 STR haplotypes.
(https://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R-L11_Subclades_Timeline.gif)

The Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA) for P312 and U106 are not much older than U152 or L21.  To some this may seem incredible, but another way to confirm this closeness of relationship is to just look at the modals for these large, old subclades.  Everything coalesces back to WAMH.

Ok Mike, with other things equal, what I am seeing is that the MRCA of P312 and U106 age, is likely underestimated, mainly due to the survival of two of its greatest branches. Like I said before, it’s a lot more complicated than that. ..

I knew you'd have to come back to this.  People who want to see the L11 family as being old and spread out in Europe without a great and very recent expansion/migration can't reconcile the aging. Therefore they have to claim the aging is wrong.  The full confidence ranges for both 68% and 95% confidence are given in the chart.

Please go on the hapogroup I Rootsweb forum and discuss Ken's interclade TMRCA calculator with him. Interclade aging does NOT suffer the same maladies as intraclade aging.   Ken's Generations methodologies are not proof of anything but they are the best we have.  They take advantage of the fact we have separated two groups of people, P312 and U106 in this case, conclusively. Your intraclade counter-examples (with limited resolution to boot) are not applicable.

Move down a step in the Y DNA tree to look at the comparisons of U152&L21, L21&Z96, Z196&U152.

Also think about WAMH.  Why is it that U106's modal is very close to P312's even if as you think they are greatly separated in age?  From a simplistic view, is it just happenstance that U106's and P312's most frequent lineages converged towards WAMH?

It could be so. You could be right.  I just doubt it.

If you want to argue about interclade calculations let's take that over to the STR Wars thread or to Ironroads TMRCA calculations thread so as not to bog this down.  The one big open switch in Ken's methodology are the mutation rates that he and Marko Heinila use are germ-line and the argument can be made that evolutionary rates should be used? That moves the whole time-line back and stretches it out a bit but still doesn't change that, relatively, P312 and U106 are not too distantly related.

I should re-iterate, I'm just speculating and a lot of the speculation is based on STR diversity, mutation rates, our understanding of the phylogenetic tree, etc.  They are not perfect so there is no doubt my speculations could be wrong, although I think R1b found in Bell Beaker folks adds a little more support.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 14, 2012, 10:04:49 AM

I knew you'd have to come back to this.  People who want to see the L11 family as being old and spread out in Europe without a great and very recent expansion/migration can't reconcile the aging. Therefore they have to claim the aging is wrong.
So you quoted only one part of what I said, and ignore the rest(Where I show the evidence, of why I said that).

Please go on the hapogroup I Rootsweb forum and discuss Ken's interclade TMRCA calculator with him. Interclade aging does NOT suffer the same maladies as intraclade aging.   Ken's Generations methodologies are not proof of anything but they are the best we have.  They take advantage of the fact we have separated two groups of people, P312 and U106 in this case, conclusively. Your intraclade counter-examples (with limited resolution to boot) are not applicable.

How do you know they are the best we got? Have they been tested against actual empirical data. Also don’t send me anywhere, my main point here was talking about R1b-L51+ clades, not inter or intraclade TMRCA, you brough it up, so now don’t try to dismiss it. Interclade aging does suffer from the same problems as intraclade, otherwise why is I1 and I2 interclade the same as I2 intraclade, why is R1b-P312 and R1b-U106 interclade the same as R1b-U106 intraclade? You can ignore the evidence if you want, and if it makes you feel better, but something aint quite right here.

Move down a step in the Y DNA tree to look at the comparisons of U152&L21, L21&Z96, Z196&U152.
Also think about WAMH.  Why is it that U106's modal is very close to P312's even if as you think they are greatly separated in age?  From a simplistic view, is it just happenstance that U106's and P312's most frequent lineages converged towards WAMH?

Close?? They differ by one mutation in a 10 STR set, but go on, let’s see by how many mutations they differ in the 67 markers set? But never mind the fact that R1b-P312+ amount of haplotypes triple the amount of haplotypes of R1b-U106+ in the projects.


It could be so. You could be right.  I just doubt it.

If you want to argue about interclade calculations let's take that over to the STR Wars thread or to Ironroads TMRCA calculations thread so as not to bog this down.

No Mike, I’m not gonna take anything anywhere, if you didn’t want to talk about TMRCA, you shouldn’t have brought it up, you did, sorry I’m gonna reply to it here, not on some other place. If you don’t like the outcome, sorry it aint my fault, but I’m tired of you telling people to reply on other threads which you deem more appropriate, yet you bring the “offtopic” discussion too.


I should re-iterate, I'm just speculating and a lot of the speculation is based on STR diversity, mutation rates, our understanding of the phylogenetic tree, etc.  They are not perfect so there is no doubt my speculations could be wrong, although I think R1b found in Bell Beaker folks adds a little more support.

Really, you think it adds support, ok, let see what aDNA has shown us:

Per Marko.H latest TMRCA table E-V13(n=267) gets a TMRCA of 4300 ybp, but lets not hesitate, E-V13 gets an interclade age of 7200 ybp when compared with E-V32(sample size 4!!!!) which has an intraclade age of 6800 ybp. E-V13 was found in the Neolithic Cardial site of Avellaner, Catalonia dated to 7000 ybp. That is awfully close to the age when the first SNP occured. Also weren't you the one complaining about small samples sizes, do you not see how many of the interclade calculations are done with small sample sizes(i.e. M73 vs.M269, etc).


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 10:41:49 AM
Quote from: Mikewww
Also think about WAMH.  Why is it that U106's modal is very close to P312's even if as you think they are greatly separated in age?  From a simplistic view, is it just happenstance that U106's and P312's most frequent lineages converged towards WAMH?

Close?? They differ by one mutation in a 10 STR set, but go on, let’s see by how many mutations they differ in the 67 markers set? But never mind the fact that R1b-P312+ amount of haplotypes triple the amount of haplotypes of R1b-U106+ in the projects.

I've been tracking this for quite a while I and get U106's modal as being different than P312/WAMH over 67 markers at
390=23 vs 24
464b=16 vs 15
CDYa=37 vs 36
492=13 vs 12

Given U106's higher diversity is where its 390=24 frequently, U106's ancestral value for 390 may actually be 24.

I wish I had a GD=4 type match at 67.  I need to recheck but when I initially collected 111 STR haplotypes, P312 and U106 matched on markers 68-111.

From a few hundred to a few thousand, I haven't seen the modals for P312, L21 and U152 alter much over the years. Maybe a flip-flop or two at CDYa or 456 from time to time as the data builds.  L21 is basically equivalent to P312 and U152 is little different.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 10:55:40 AM
...  Interclade aging does suffer from the same problems as intraclade, otherwise why is I1 and I2 interclade the same as I2 intraclade, why is R1b-P312 and R1b-U106 interclade the same as R1b-U106 intraclade?

I don't know I1 and I2 information and the vagaries therein, but is there any reason to not think I2 successfully branched very early after its breakaway from the I1&I2 interclade lineage, leading to greater diversity?  It seems plausible to me.  Is this is what you mean?

I think you also know these ages are estimates with confidence ranges. I provided the full detail. There is no precision to the decade on this stuff, nor probably to the century.  The intraclade ages are subject (or should I say more subject) to the issues you've brought up about TMRCAs. This is why I don't even show the intraclade TMRCA for U106 on the chart included in this thread. You'll see that U106's coalescence age is less than the interclade for P312&U106. This is actually by design of Ken's methodology if you understood it.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 11:08:42 AM

I should re-iterate, I'm just speculating and a lot of the speculation is based on STR diversity, mutation rates, our understanding of the phylogenetic tree, etc.  They are not perfect so there is no doubt my speculations could be wrong, although I think R1b found in Bell Beaker folks adds a little more support.

Really, you think it adds support, ok, let see what aDNA has shown us:

Per Marko.H latest TMRCA table E-V13(n=267) gets a TMRCA of 4300 ybp, but lets not hesitate, E-V13 gets an interclade age of 7200 ybp when compared with E-V32(sample size 4!!!!) which has an intraclade age of 6800 ybp. E-V13 was found in the Neolithic Cardial site of Avellaner, Catalonia dated to 7000 ybp. That is awfully close to the age when the first SNP occured. Also weren't you the one complaining about small samples sizes, do you not see how many of the interclade calculations are done with small sample sizes(i.e. M73 vs.M269, etc).

As far as this topic goes and this forum goes, R1b is not found in the Neolithic artifacts of Europe nor earlier, even though other haplogroups are found*. {*Other haplogroups have been found in Neolithic sites but it is true they are not found in Mesolithic sites to-date} Our earliest R1b artifacts are Bell Beaker folks.  Bell Beaker folks were a Bronze Age* {2800BC-1800BC} phenomenon.

I can't discuss E-V13 much.  What were the confidence ranges of the estimates you are providing? Who made them? I'm not sure if a sample size of 4 can be equated to several thousand.  As I've stated, nevertheless, these are just estimates, but why go against Nordtvedt's interclade methodology and thousands of long haplotypes without supporting evidence?

{EDIT: clarification per JeanL's concern and RRocca's.  I guess I need to publish errata with my posts...
* http://www.buildinghistory.org/distantpast/ancientdna.shtml
* Wiki says Beakers "starting in the late Neolithic or Chalcolithic running into the early Bronze Age."}


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 14, 2012, 11:53:12 AM
As far as this topic goes and this forum goes, R1b is not found in the Neolithic artifacts of Europe nor earlier, even though other haplogroups are found. Our earliest R1b artifacts are Bell Beaker folks.  Bell Beaker folks were a Bronze Age phenomenon.
 

Really Mike!!! This is the second time you talk about R1b absence in samples earlier than the Neolithic time period in Europe. But the truth is, there aren’t any Y haplogroups samples from aDNA prior to the Neolithic period, so why do you keep bringing that up? The reader who is not up to date with aDNA data would read that, and think that R1b hasn’t shown up in Mesolithic samples in Europe, but truth is, there aren’t any Mesolithic samples tested for YDNA, so why do you keep misinforming people.  As for the Neolithic samples, we have a handful of samples from Avellaner, Catalonia, from Germany, and quite a descent sample size from a very localized community in Treilles, France. There is still very vast regions in Europe, and in Western Europe than have not yet been tested for y-DNA haplogroups, so the evidence is very, very far from conclusive. As for the presence of R1b in Bell Beaker folks, it fits with the age estimates of R1b-M269 using germline rates, but if it turns out to be R1b-P312 it would put some strain on the age estimates of P-312 because it would push it to the limit, just as the presence of E-V13 in Neolithic Catalonia is pushing the interclade estimate of E-V13 to its limit.

I can't discuss E-V13 much.  What were the confidence ranges of the estimates you are providing? Who made them? I'm not sure if a sample size of 4 can be equated to several thousand.  As I've stated, nevertheless, these are just estimates, but why go against them without supporting evidence?

I got those values from here:

 http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/TMRCAs_for_major_Y_Hgs_by_Heinila_2011.html (http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/TMRCAs_for_major_Y_Hgs_by_Heinila_2011.html)

Which were posted by you.

As for the supporting evidence against that, well, does this count as supporting evidence?

Per Myres.et.al.2010 Table-S2:

Variance of R1b-S116+:

Vaucluse, France(n=20) var=0.307

France(n=40) var=0.268

England(n=43) var=0.233

Ireland(n=73) var=0.208

Italy(n=72) var=0.198

So if you look the variance of R-P312 in France 135% that of Italy, so that is a wide variability in the ranges of TMRCA in Western Europe, when you add all of them together, the variance that results is actually 0.2377, which is far closer to the variance of England, Ireland and Italy, than to that of France or Vaucluse,France. Hence why when taking population averages, regional variance would be undermined. What is worse, is that as I showed before the FTDNA projects haplotypes used to calculate the TMRCA of R1b-P312 have the British Islands overrepresented.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on June 14, 2012, 02:38:22 PM
Not to be a stickler, but Bell Beaker starts in the Late Neolithic/Chalcolithic and ends in the Bronze Age.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 02:58:05 PM
As far as this topic goes and this forum goes, R1b is not found in the Neolithic artifacts of Europe nor earlier, even though other haplogroups are found. Our earliest R1b artifacts are Bell Beaker folks.  Bell Beaker folks were a Bronze Age phenomenon.
 

Really Mike!!! This is the second time you talk about R1b absence in samples earlier than the Neolithic time period in Europe. But the truth is, there aren’t any Y haplogroups samples from aDNA prior to the Neolithic period, so why do you keep bringing that up? The reader who is not up to date with aDNA data would read that, and think that R1b hasn’t shown up in Mesolithic samples in Europe, but truth is, there aren’t any Mesolithic samples tested for YDNA, so why do you keep misinforming people.

Sorry, I had no intention of misinforming anyone.  I keep forgetting with you I have to highlight my caveats, etc. in triplicate or you will miss them.   I just added the "not found in the Neolithic artifacts of Europe nor earlier" so as to be extra clear it hasn't been found earlier. I was actually trying to be extra clear so it is ironic that you feel otherwise.  I guess I should not be saying anything without full reference to Jean M's ancient DNA tracking web site so that it is clear I'm not misinforming anyone about lack of ancient Y DNA.   We should be specific and add the "Y" in there as will.  Here is Jean M's summary: http://www.buildinghistory.org/distantpast/ancientdna.shtml

I generally correct errors or clarifications so you'll see me do that here.  You said this is the 2nd time I've misinformed people. Where's the first? I'll fix it.

I think I've been one of the first and most frequent to say on this forum and on DNA-forums that the "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." This was impressed upon me from Barry Cunliffe and his books about prehistoric Europe.  R1b could be found in Mesolithic or even Paleolithic bones in Europe.  It could turn up at any time of a new study or may not for 100 years ago or never.  

This is just one additional puzzle piece that shows R1b may not have been in pre-Neolithic Europe.  I've never proposed lack of R1b aDNA to-date during the Neolithic as the foundation of any speculations I've had. Even if R1b was Mesolithic in Durope, I doubt that R-L11 descendants we see today are from Western European Paleolithic or Mesolithic origin.  It appears to be a strong position of yours that they were.  I haven't heard a convincing argument that is true. Do you have one?



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 03:00:28 PM
Not to be a stickler, but Bell Beaker starts in the Late Neolithic/Chalcolithic and ends in the Bronze Age.
Don't worry about being a stickler, you can throw me with that lot most of the time. LOL.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 14, 2012, 03:52:11 PM
I generally correct errors or clarifications so you'll see me do that here.  You said this is the 2nd time I've misinformed people. Where's the first? I'll fix it.

Here you go buddy:

 http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10669.msg131918#msg131918 (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10669.msg131918#msg131918)

I think this idea (Paleolithic R1b in Europe) has its root in the notion that because there is a lot of R-M269 in western Europe now, it must have been the first y haplogroup in, or, if not the first, at least a very early arrival. Therefore, it has had plenty of time to achieve success. Yet that underlying notion is undercut by the usual genetic bottleneck arguments, which reduce R-M269 to near disaster and then bring it back....

Exactly! It's like one becomes mesmerized by the very high R1b frequencies on the Atlantic fringe, causing the starting assumption that R1b must be from there only to have the logic of this slashed by the forced admission of a recent bottleneck due to WAMH and low diversity.

We'd all like to have our cake and eat it too, but it doesn't work.

I guess the Basques are a part of the magnetism too, as well as the old Cantabrian-Franco refugium idea. 

It's just too bad the recent bottleneck (thru L11) and the rapid re-expansion by a people less advanced than the farmers ruins the story.  Well, the lack of ancient R1b DNA in Meso & Neolithic Europe is causing problems, too. Then are those (lovingly) crazy phylogenetic R1b cousins in the Near East and thereabouts are messing up the story too. Did I mention that both STR variance and maximum liklihood methods cross-validate nicely with the SNP branch length counting method (Karafet) to make R-L11 look young?

Hey, I'm just old R1b Cro-Magnon fellow who fell off the wagon when I got too many facts to cloud the story. Mea culpa!


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: razyn on June 14, 2012, 03:53:41 PM
I still want one of those Ligurian stickler helmets, like the one Rocca used to display.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 03:56:27 PM
I guess we are off track a bit here. Moderator, if you choose you are welcome to move the off track conversations to other threads, but so be it.

...
Per Marko.H latest TMRCA table E-V13(n=267) gets a TMRCA of 4300 ybp, but lets not hesitate, E-V13 gets an interclade age of 7200 ybp when compared with E-V32(sample size 4!!!!) which has an intraclade age of 6800 ybp. E-V13 was found in the Neolithic Cardial site of Avellaner, Catalonia dated to 7000 ybp. That is awfully close to the age when the first SNP occured. Also weren't you the one complaining about small samples sizes, do you not see how many of the interclade calculations are done with small sample sizes(i.e. M73 vs.M269, etc).

I agree the sample sizes in some of the calculations Marko Heinila did are small. However, I'm not complaining to Marko. I am grateful that he dedicated as much volunteer time as he did to peforming this work for us.  He publishes the sample sizes. He does not hide that and its up to us to apply the results responsibly.

However, it's a bit strange that you argue against R1b-L11 family subclade interclade Generations (Ken Nordtvedt) TMRCA calculations with alternative method (Marko Heinils) TMRCA calculations with very low sample sizes.

Again, I am grateful to Marko so I do not ask him to do more on this, but if you look he does not publish any confidence intervals ranges. With some of the low sample sizes that you point out we might expect very wide error ranges, i.e. 50-100% or who knows what.  The Hg E counter-argument example you show is an extremely poor example. I was thinking you had something more significant than that and have been waiting for that. Maybe your I2 and I1 example is more significant.  BTW, if you want to dig into that I highly advise going to Nordtvedt's web site on the Hg I family and its subclades. He is the guru on I.

The R1b-L11 family subclade calculations I displayed in this thread from Nordtvedt's tool does have error ranges and I provided them so you can see them easily, graphically. There is no intent to misinform here. They are what they are.
... I think you also know these ages are estimates with confidence ranges. I provided the full detail. There is no precision to the decade on this stuff, nor probably to the century.

If you understood Nordtvedt's methodology you would know that precision, just like Nordtvedt said, improves when the two clades compared are of roughly the same age.  That's exactly what happens with P312 and U106. As far as sample sizes go, there were about 4200 P312 67 STR Ht's from over 30 Old World countries. There were 1400 U106 67 Ht's from STR Ht's from 30 Old World Countries.   I'm not trying to misinform, so I've always kept all of those haplotypes updated at the corresponding Yahoo Groups files sections.  The proportion of P312  to U106 sample sizes does not bias the interclade calculation since they are subdivided and compared, but you should at further descendants in both families to see how it all stacks up in context.

I agree that are sampling should be more representative but I don't have a good way of "robust" re-sampling that would be not biased itself while being relevant.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 04:06:42 PM
I generally correct errors or clarifications so you'll see me do that here.  You said this is the 2nd time I've misinformed people. Where's the first? I'll fix it.

Here you go buddy:

 http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10669.msg131918#msg131918 (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10669.msg131918#msg131918)

Done, clarified.  You should have said something then if you didn't like it.  Maybe you did and I missed it.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 14, 2012, 04:57:09 PM
If you understood Nordtvedt's methodology you would know that precision, just like Nordtvedt said, improves when the two clades compared are of roughly the same age.  That's exactly what happens with P312 and U106. As far as sample sizes go, there were about 4200 P312 67 STR Ht's from over 30 Old World countries. There were 1400 U106 67 Ht's from STR Ht's from 30 Old World Countries.   I'm not trying to misinform, so I've always kept all of those haplotypes updated at the corresponding Yahoo Groups files sections.  The proportion of P312  to U106 sample sizes does not bias the interclade calculation since they are subdivided and compared, but you should at further descendants in both families to see how it all stacks up in context.

I already talked about the issue with the haplotypes of P-312 coming from the FTDNA databases, but I’ll repeat myself:

R1b-P312 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 4376 haplotypes.
R1b-L21 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 2670 haplotypes.
R1b-U152 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 571 haplotypes.
R1b-Z196 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 281 haplotypes.


As you can see, there is a disproportionate amount of R1b-L21 relative to the other P312 clades, so the question that stands is: Out of those 4000 haplotypes in the 67 markers, how many have their MDKA in the British Islands? I’m pretty sure a majority does.

I agree that are sampling should be more representative but I don't have a good way of "robust" re-sampling that would be not biased itself while being relevant.

Well a good way to do robust sampling would be to pick 80 random haplotypes from each country, and assemble a set using equal amounts for each country, that should solve any bias.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 05:15:21 PM
If you understood Nordtvedt's methodology you would know that precision, just like Nordtvedt said, improves when the two clades compared are of roughly the same age.  That's exactly what happens with P312 and U106. As far as sample sizes go, there were about 4200 P312 67 STR Ht's from over 30 Old World countries. There were 1400 U106 67 Ht's from STR Ht's from 30 Old World Countries.   I'm not trying to misinform, so I've always kept all of those haplotypes updated at the corresponding Yahoo Groups files sections.  The proportion of P312  to U106 sample sizes does not bias the interclade calculation since they are subdivided and compared, but you should at further descendants in both families to see how it all stacks up in context.

I already talked about the issue with the haplotypes of P-312 coming from the FTDNA databases, but I’ll repeat myself:
R1b-P312 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 4376 haplotypes.
R1b-L21 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 2670 haplotypes.
R1b-U152 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 571 haplotypes.
R1b-Z196 gets a TMRCA of 4000 ybp using 281 haplotypes.


As you can see, there is a disproportionate amount of R1b-L21 relative to the other P312 clades, so the question that stands is: Out of those 4000 haplotypes in the 67 markers, how many have their MDKA in the British Islands? I’m pretty sure a majority does.

I agree that are sampling should be more representative but I don't have a good way of "robust" re-sampling that would be not biased itself while being relevant.

Well a good way to do robust sampling would be to pick 80 random haplotypes from each country, and assemble a set using equal amounts for each country, that should solve any bias.  

Are you listing intraclade TMRCAs again?  Why go back to that when interclade are available for good sized subclades?  and at multiple layers of the tree to cross-check each other?  The U152&L21 interclade, the U152&Z196(now DF27) interclade, the L21&Z196 interclade all provide cross reference information to compare with the P312&U106 interclade.

Why are you showing 4000 ybp for all of your examples? Did you calculate that? I don't remember ever getting a series of 4000 ypb results like that. Are you just saying that because the numbers all come out in the same ranges they must be wrong? What are the confidence ranges for your calculations?

This is just an anecdotal statement, but my observation (within R1b-L11) has been the variance relationships change little when you add or subtract data beyond a certain point, at least randomly.  I think you have to try to mess things up. However, I understand your point that the FTDNA data is not representative.  I agree.

I'm all for trying different things out as long as they don't take too much work.  I know that Excel has a "Rand" function that could pick out random numbers that I could turn into a formula to pick haplotypes.  Why is 80 enough or not?  I don't have an opinion. I just don't know.  Why choose by country?  Isn't it more important to choose by subclade (by sub-subclade I mean.)   What is the right proportion to choose in each subclade or in each country if we go that route?  They have different absolute populations as well as testing penetration rates.  I'm not sure if current absolute population sizes are that important in weighting in countries anyway.   I'm looking for any ideas here that can really stand up before I jump into re-sampling exercises. Also, don't we need to do the re-sampling multiple times, using regression analysis, to be effective.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 14, 2012, 05:42:07 PM
Are you listing intraclade TMRCAs again?  Why go back to that when interclade are available for good sized subclades?  and at multiple layers of the tree to cross-check each other?  The U152&L21 interclade, the U152&Z196(now DF27) interclade, the L21&Z196 interclade all provide cross reference information to compare with the P312&U106 interclade.

The interclade of P312&U106 TMRCA is the same as the intraclade TMRCA of U106, I already showed that to you using MarkoH table of TMRCA. But the main point here to take was that amongst the R1b-P312+ subclades R1b-L21 was vastly overrepresented, whereas R1b-U152 and R1b-Z196 are greatly underrepresented, not the TRMCA itself.

Why are you showing 4000 ybp for all of your examples? Did you calculate that? I don't remember ever getting a series of 4000 ypb results like that. Are you just saying that because the numbers all come out in the same ranges they must be wrong? What are the confidence ranges for your calculations?

Those results came from MarkoH latest TMRCA calculations which were posted on page-5 of the thread “TRMCA Calculations”.

I'm all for trying different things out as long as they don't take too much work.  I know that Excel has a "Rand" function that could pick out random numbers that I could turn into a formula to pick haplotypes.  Why is 80 enough or not?  I don't have an opinion. I just don't know.  Why choose by country? Isn't it more important to choose by subclade (by sub-subclade I mean.)   What is the right proportion to choose in each subclade or in each country if we go that route?  They have different absolute populations as well as testing penetration rates.  I'm not sure if current absolute population sizes are that important in weighting in countries anyway.   I'm looking for any ideas here that can really stand up before I jump into re-sampling exercises. Also, don't we need to do the re-sampling multiple times, using regression analysis, to be effective.

Well, because if you have a sample of R1b-L21, and 95% of the sample comes from the UK, then likely you would get a TMRCA that is skewed to whatever the TMRCA of R1b-L21 is in the UK. Of course, I’m talking about separating the samples into appropriate subclades, but regional representativeness is also very important. Again how many of the R1b-P312+ 4000 haplotypes that were used to calculate R1b-P312’s TMRCA have their MDKA from the British Islands?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 06:45:32 PM
Are you listing intraclade TMRCAs again?  Why go back to that when interclade are available for good sized subclades?  and at multiple layers of the tree to cross-check each other?  The U152&L21 interclade, the U152&Z196(now DF27) interclade, the L21&Z196 interclade all provide cross reference information to compare with the P312&U106 interclade.

The interclade of P312&U106 TMRCA is the same as the intraclade TMRCA of U106, I already showed that to you using MarkoH table of TMRCA.

So what? First, you list no error ranges in your example.
Again, I am grateful to Marko so I do not ask him to do more on this, but if you look he does not publish any confidence intervals ranges.
I provided error ranges from Nordtvedt's output and the overlapping error ranges align nicely, as they should, with the phylogenetic tree. There is no reason to suspect any thing is off related to the closeness in ages between the U106&P312 TMRCA and the U106 TMRCA.

Secondly,  Is there any reason why the U106 TMRCA should not or can not be relatively close in age to the U106&P312 TMRCA?

... it's a bit strange that you argue against R1b-L11 family subclade interclade Generations (Ken Nordtvedt) TMRCA calculations with alternative method (Marko Heinils) TMRCA calculations...

Why not go download Nordtvedt's tool and use it?  You can tear it apart.  All of the formulas are there, sigmas and the whole bit.  If you make a list of errors, I'll present that to Ken for you if you are afraid to yourself.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 06:53:24 PM
Are you listing intraclade TMRCAs again?  Why go back to that when interclade are available for good sized subclades?  and at multiple layers of the tree to cross-check each other?  The U152&L21 interclade, the U152&Z196(now DF27) interclade, the L21&Z196 interclade all provide cross reference information to compare with the P312&U106 interclade.

The interclade of P312&U106 TMRCA is the same as the intraclade TMRCA of U106, I already showed that to you using MarkoH table of TMRCA. But the main point here to take was that amongst the R1b-P312+ subclades R1b-L21 was vastly overrepresented, whereas R1b-U152 and R1b-Z196 are greatly underrepresented, not the TRMCA itself.

I don't think that is impacting the U106&P312 interclade age, at least significantly, but I'll take a look at it when I get the chance.  I honestly don't see how much of a difference will be made.  We have a lot of data on these clades like U152, L2, DF27, L21, U106, Z381, etc.  You can just look at the modals, and go down another layer on the tree to look again.  The probable ancestral values kind of pop out at you.  The statistics of all of this just bear it out.

The only thing that really seems unusual ("off") on the P312 side is M222 (NW Irish.)  It's ht is really distinct which seems to indicate it is young (far down the branching from P312) which is corroborated by its low TMRCA and coalescence.  If you have a hard problem with believing P312 and U106 are this young, you'd really have a hard time with M222.  These guys are really hard to differentiate into clusters but there is a ton of them.  They really had explosive growth at a late date!



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on June 14, 2012, 07:12:21 PM
I really dont get the big deal that U106 seems to be NE European.  Its no further from other parts of the L11 world than different P312 subclade hotspots are from each other.  its really no big deal IMO and I think it just bothers people who wish to see U106 as some sort of very different lineage compared to P312 which pattently it is not.  In the early days  of P312, the ancestors of U106 may well have still been L11* as they were travelling towards NE Europe.  It is the lineage of just one man after all.  U106 has its oldest variance in the NE of Europe but its variance seems to be significantly lower than P312 so the ancestors of U106 were probably still L11* in the main travelling phase of the lineage and hence there would be no trail for U106 leading to NE Europe.  There is a hint of a remanant of a L11XU106XP312 trail along the north coast of Europe as well as the Alps.  I think the likelihood that U106 happened in the NE and was confined to that area before late prehistoric and early historic expansion west confuses people.  While the evidence indicates this, the evidence on face value also indicates that U106 didnt exist when the later U106 lineages spread into the area.  It was probably L11*.  So a trail for U106 to NE Europe will never be found.  They travelled before the SNP happened.  I tthink that the root of the problem goes back to the early days of this hobby when U106 was set apart as Germanic etc (which it may well have become 3000 years after it travelled to NE Europe but that is irrelevant to the early story) while P312 was still part of the M269* block and there was a sort of U106 uber-man dilusion going on.  In the initial stage of its existence U106 and P312 must have belonged to the same culture and spoken the same language.  I dont even buy the idea that U106 was a corded ware thing while beaker was P312.  For a start U106 does not appear to have existed until the end of the Corded Ware period.  


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on June 14, 2012, 07:17:27 PM
I tend to suspect U106 arose in NE Europe from an L11* line that moved there from somewhere to the south or west a couple of centuries earlier.  I would link this to the bell beaker culture.  Well certainly every bit as much as I would link P312 to it. 

Here is a very useful paper on beakers peripheral elements

 http://www.aegeobalkanprehistory.net/article.php?id_art=10


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 14, 2012, 07:27:35 PM
So what? First, you list no error ranges in your example.

I list no sigmas because “my”(It was actually you who posted that table) example is from Marko.H calculations which show no sigmas.

I provided error ranges from Nordtvedt's output and the overlapping error ranges align nicely, as they should, with the phylogenetic tree. There is no reason to suspect any thing is off related to the closeness in ages between the U106&P312 TMRCA and the U106 TMRCA.
Secondly,  Is there any reason why the U106 TMRCA should not or can not be relatively close in age to the U106&P312 TMRCA?

I just find it weird that the intraclade age of R1b-U106 is what dictates the interclade age of R1b-U106&R1b-P312, and that the intraclade age of I2 is what dictates the interclade age of I1&I2. So yes there is a reason to suspect it, mainly because according to you intraclade sets lower bound whereas interclade sets upper bound, and how can the lower and upper bound be exactly the same? Moreover this shows that if there is any effects that are undermining the intraclade age of R1b-U106 they will be translated into the interclade age of R1b-P312 and R1b-U106.

Now why don’t you answer the question you seem to be ignoring for the past couple of posts:

Again how many of the R1b-P312+ 4000 haplotypes that were used to calculate R1b-P312’s TMRCA have their MDKA from the British Islands?

What’s more how many of the R1b-U106+ 1200 haplotypes that were used to calculate R1b-U106’s TMRCA have their MDKA from the British Islands?

Why not go download Nordtvedt's tool and use it?  You can tear it apart.  All of the formulas are there, sigmas and the whole bit.  If you make a list of errors, I'll present that to Ken for you if you are afraid to yourself.

Why?? I have my own tool, I programmed it using Matlab, I don’t need to tear his tool apart, and I have no bone to pick with him, his program doesn’t have any errors, the “errors” come into play from sampling bias, which is what is clearly going on when the data from FTDNA is used, at least for the R1b-P310+ subclades.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 14, 2012, 08:02:23 PM
So what? First, you list no error ranges in your example.

I list no sigmas because “my”(It was actually you who posted that table) example is from Marko.H calculations which show no sigmas.

I provided error ranges from Nordtvedt's output and the overlapping error ranges align nicely, as they should, with the phylogenetic tree. There is no reason to suspect any thing is off related to the closeness in ages between the U106&P312 TMRCA and the U106 TMRCA.
Secondly,  Is there any reason why the U106 TMRCA should not or can not be relatively close in age to the U106&P312 TMRCA?

I just find it weird that the intraclade age of R1b-U106 is what dictates the interclade age of R1b-U106&R1b-P312, and that the intraclade age of I2 is what dictates the interclade age of I1&I2. So yes there is a reason to suspect it, mainly because according to you intraclade sets lower bound whereas interclade sets upper bound, and how can the lower and upper bound be exactly the same? Moreover this shows that if there is any effects that are undermining the intraclade age of R1b-U106 they will be translated into the interclade age of R1b-P312 and R1b-U106.

I'll recommend again that you download Ken Nordtvedt's documents and spreadsheet and figure it out.  I look at his powerpoints of the conceptual overview and have had several conversations with him.  At times, I see how it fits together, but only at a high level.  I have another things to worry about and I'm not that smart so I haven't tried to totally grapple with interclade parts of it.  Conceptually (the powerpoints) it makes sense and I trust that Ken is putting the concepts into the spreadsheet correctly.



Now why don’t you answer the question you seem to be ignoring for the past couple of posts:

Again how many of the R1b-P312+ 4000 haplotypes that were used to calculate R1b-P312’s TMRCA have their MDKA from the British Islands?
What’s more how many of the R1b-U106+ 1200 haplotypes that were used to calculate R1b-U106’s TMRCA have their MDKA from the British Islands?

I actually have other things to do and honestly when I've looked at that kind of thing, diversity by geography, usually the differences in these subclades (U152, L2, L21, DF27 (replacing Z196), U106, Z381, P312, etc.) are minor. You'd probably say the same thing that Busby says. The clines are not that steep.

What I am saying this line of counter-argument is not very compelling to me. I think I already know the answer so it's just matter of bantering with you.

Don't worry. I care about you.  I won't look at reloading Ken's Gen spreadsheet with this data though as I want to incorporate his new version for 113 STRs first.  I will do some variance comparison for you by geography.  I think we have to keep in mind that today's political boundaries are not necessarily critical to old Y DNA distribution patterns.  Oceans, mountain ranges, river valleys are also important as well as ancient political boundaries.

The intraclade variances will go up and down somewhat as you say because of the bias of the sample.  So far I haven't seen that move the needle much (EDIT: fixed typos) on interclade calculations though.

Why not go download Nordtvedt's tool and use it?  You can tear it apart.  All of the formulas are there, sigmas and the whole bit.  If you make a list of errors, I'll present that to Ken for you if you are afraid to yourself.


Why?? I have my own tool, I programmed it using Matlab, I don’t need to tear his tool apart, and I have no bone to pick with him, his program doesn’t have any errors, the “errors” come into play from sampling bias, which is what is clearly going on when the data from FTDNA is used, at least for the R1b-P310+ subclades.  

Super. Please produce your own estimates with your own tool, then.  Please consider publishing the formulas and providing charts that provide an overview.

Can you build a spreadsheet that creates random numbers and then pulls rows from a second spreadsheet full of haplotype data?  We need it to pull (copy/paste) rows based on selection criteria by column (i.e. country and/or subclade.)  I suspect we need to develop a process where this is done multiple times in batch (without manual intervention) with a regression analysis (of which I forgotten about since my collegiate days.)   I would do this, and may some day but it looks like a big task.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: rms2 on June 14, 2012, 08:02:46 PM
I tend to suspect U106 arose in NE Europe from an L11* line that moved there from somewhere to the south or west a couple of centuries earlier.  I would link this to the bell beaker culture.  Well certainly every bit as much as I would link P312 to it. 

Here is a very useful paper on beakers peripheral elements

 http://www.aegeobalkanprehistory.net/article.php?id_art=10

The only exception I would take to what you posted is that we have two Bell Beaker y-dna results, and both were U106-. Of course, we don't know whether or not they were P312+. They could have simply been L11+ and no further up the tree.

I know two are not many, but they were found in what is today U106-rich country, and neither was U106+.

I tend to hold Bell Beaker accountable for Italo-Celtic, and I don't think U106 had any kind of a hand in that. So, yeah, I would give U106 a northeastern origin and have it caught up in the Corded Ware/Nordic Bronze Age thing fairly early.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 14, 2012, 08:30:18 PM
I'll recommend again that you download Ken Nordtvedt's documents and spreadsheet and figure it out.  I look at his powerpoints of the conceptual overview and have had several conversations with him.  At times, I see how it fits together, but only at a high level.  I have another things to worry about and I'm not that smart so I haven't tried to totally grapple with interclade parts of it.  Conceptually (the powerpoints) it makes sense and I trust that Ken is putting the concepts into the spreadsheet correctly.

Ok, let me put it in simpler words, I have no reason to download his spreadsheet, because I have no reason to doubt that the estimates are right, the “data” is what seems to be the problem.

I actually have other things to do and honestly when I've looked at that kind of thing, diversity by geography, usually the differences in these subclades (U152, L2, L21, DF27 (replacing Z196), U106, Z381, P312, etc.) are minor. You'd probably say the same thing that Busby says. The clines are not that steep.

Really, that’s not the impression I have gotten from observing the data from academic studies, certainly there is no east-west pattern for R1b-L11+ as per Busby.et.al.data, but there is definitely regional variance.

What I am saying this line of counter-argument is not very compelling to me. I think I already know the answer so it's just matter of bantering with you.

Ok, so the representativeness of the haplotypes used to calculate the MRCA of P312+ is not a compelling issue to you?

Don't worry. I care about you.  I won't look at reloading Ken's Gen spreadsheet with this data though as I want to incorporate his new version for 113 STRs first.  I will do some variance comparison for you by geography.  I think we have to keep in mind that today's political boundaries are not necessarily critical to old Y DNA distribution patterns.  Oceans, mountain ranges, river valleys are also important as well as ancient political boundaries.
Well yeah, I not mean countries per se, but regions, for example SW France ought to be investigated separately from NW France or NE France, etc.

The intraclade variances will go up and down somewhat as you say because of the bias of the sample.  So far I haven't seen that make much of a needle on interclade calculations though.

Well you haven’t seen much of a needle on inter clade calculations because you haven’t used the intraclade of say NW French R1b-L21 and NW French R1b-Z196, let see if that is different from the interclade age of all R1b-L21 and R1b-Z196 for example.

Super. Please produce your own estimates with your own tool, then.  Please consider publishing the formulas and providing charts that provide an overview.

The program I wrote doesn’t produce age estimates, it calculate variance and modal haplotype for a given dataset. However that variance(mean mutations per marker) needs to be corrected for back mutations in order to calculate the TMRCA, however since I have yet to find a reliable way to do such thing, I haven’t taken it to the next step. As for the formulas, well the program works in independent locus, and picks the modal value based on the allele value that minimizes the number of mutations in that given locus. So basically, it is a bunch of nested “for” and “do” loops, nonetheless I gotten similar results to the variance calculated using the mean haplotype methodology in Myres.et.al.2010.

Can you build a spreadsheet that creates random numbers and then pulls rows from a second spreadsheet full of haplotype data?  We need it to pull (copy/paste) rows based on selection criteria by column (i.e. country and/or subclade.)  I suspect we need to develop a process where this is done multiple times in batch (without manual intervention) with a regression analysis (of which I forgotten about since my collegiate days.)   I would do this, and may some day but it looks like a big task.

I don’t work directly with Excel, I only use it to store or obtain data from it. The Matlab codes I have written usually read off haplotypes from an Excel table and stored them on an array, then whenever the code is done, it will write off the results to a different spreadsheet. As for the regression analysis, well, you could certainly pick multiple combinations of n number of haplotypes and calculate the variance of them for x amount of simulations, then one finds the mean variance value and the standard deviation, if the stdev is fairly small relative to the mean, then we are good, and the randomly collected samples are actually representative of the whole data set. Of course the greater the value of x simulations, then less the likelyhood that some oddball outlier configuration will drive the stdev up, if 10000 simulations were to be done were 80 haplotypes were sample at random and their variance was calculated, and the mean and stdev are about the same order, then the data is no good, and using 80 haplotypes will very likely result in misrepresenting the variance of the whole set, so perhaps a greater number of haplotypes ought to be randomly sampled.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 15, 2012, 08:48:06 AM
I'll recommend again that you download Ken Nordtvedt's documents and spreadsheet and figure it out.  I look at his powerpoints of the conceptual overview and have had several conversations with him.  At times, I see how it fits together, but only at a high level.  I have another things to worry about and I'm not that smart so I haven't tried to totally grapple with interclade parts of it.  Conceptually (the powerpoints) it makes sense and I trust that Ken is putting the concepts into the spreadsheet correctly.

Ok, let me put it in simpler words, I have no reason to download his spreadsheet, because I have no reason to doubt that the estimates are right, the “data” is what seems to be the problem.

If I understand you, you are assuming the data is not useful in it current state and therefore you will not consider it. I don't know how you know the data has a problem other than it doesn't fit your model.

... but whatever,   Fine.  Why don't you fix the data then?  You could help me do that if you could develop a spreadsheet that used the Excel "rand" function to randomly select rows of haplotypes out of a 2nd spreadsheet based on given sets of criteria (i.e. Geography and Subclade) and copy those rows into the target spreadsheet.  I'm not the re-sampling expert, but I assume you'd want to be able to create a number of these randomly selected sample spreadsheets in a big batch so you run TMRCAs on each.  If you can do that I'll figure out how to import these data sets into Ken Nordtvedt's Generation spreadsheet. I'm not making money on this stuff? Are you planning to?  There is no reason for you or me not to provide all of the data and formulas publicly. This has always been my practice.


I actually have other things to do and honestly when I've looked at that kind of thing, diversity by geography, usually the differences in these subclades (U152, L2, L21, DF27 (replacing Z196), U106, Z381, P312, etc.) are minor. You'd probably say the same thing that Busby says. The clines are not that steep.

Really, that’s not the impression I have gotten from observing the data from academic studies, certainly there is no east-west pattern for R1b-L11+ as per Busby.et.al.data, but there is definitely regional variance.

I think there are clines, as does RMS, but I think the clines are minor. Busby, and apparently yourself, think they are not present all (at least for L11.)

In this sense I'm agreeing with you. I don't think it is worth it to do the data gyrations you are asking for in separating various TMRCA runs by country because the differences between countries for P312, L21, U152, U106, Z381 will be relatively minor (probably 5-15%, maybe up to 20%.) Apparently you think they will be less, but either way it won't be conclusive.  So why should I attempt the gyrations of separating out the UK?  If we find 10% differences between France and England I'd expect you to say they were insignificant anyway.

I see that you say there is definitely regional variance. I'm not sure how there is both no geographic cline and regional variance at the same time, but since you see this definite regional variance, please show it to us, hopefully on long haplotypes and with a large sample.


What I am saying this line of counter-argument is not very compelling to me. I think I already know the answer so it's just matter of bantering with you.

Ok, so the representativeness of the haplotypes used to calculate the MRCA of P312+ is not a compelling issue to you?

No, I'm saying you've not made a compelling enough case for me to want to do extra work.

We've just discussed you think there are no geographic clines and I think they are minor, hence P312's diversity won't change drastically from one major European country to the next as long as the sample sizes are large.  You are asking to pull out data by country. I don't have time to waste time.  I can calculate variance by country very quickly but it takes a while import stuff into Ken Nordtvedt's spreadsheet.

I also understand, we just plain do NOT have enough data to do true randomly sampled cross-sectional surveys the way they should be done.   We don't have enough to data to be truly representative, period.  Sectioning the data by country is not enough. It should be done by ethnicity, by community/region (not necessarily country) and by subclade within those categories. I'm not a demographic expert, but what I listed is probably just the start.


Don't worry. I care about you.  I won't look at reloading Ken's Gen spreadsheet with this data though as I want to incorporate his new version for 113 STRs first.  I will do some variance comparison for you by geography.  I think we have to keep in mind that today's political boundaries are not necessarily critical to old Y DNA distribution patterns.  Oceans, mountain ranges, river valleys are also important as well as ancient political boundaries.

Well yeah, I not mean countries per se, but regions, for example SW France ought to be investigated separately from NW France or NE France, etc.

The intraclade variances will go up and down somewhat as you say because of the bias of the sample.  So far I haven't seen that move the needle much (EDIT: fixed typos) on interclade calculations though.

Well you haven’t seen much of a needle on inter clade calculations because you haven’t used the intraclade of say NW French R1b-L21 and NW French R1b-Z196, let see if that is different from the interclade age of all R1b-L21 and R1b-Z196 for example.

We don't have enough haplotypes, let alone long ones, to do all of this. If we did, you'd probably complain that since many of the people are actually American citizens with MDKA's in these places we should probably throw those out.

You should probably join the National Genographic Project and convince them to sample rural areas all over Europe for people who are known to have g-grandparents and as far back as they know from their respective rural regions.  Then National Geno folks do this kind of thing, but haven't attempted any Pan-European survey.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 15, 2012, 08:59:50 AM

I tend to suspect U106 arose in NE Europe from an L11* line that moved there from somewhere to the south or west a couple of centuries earlier.  I would link this to the bell beaker culture.  Well certainly every bit as much as I would link P312 to it. 

Here is a very useful paper on beakers peripheral elements
 http://www.aegeobalkanprehistory.net/article.php?id_art=10

The only exception I would take to what you posted is that we have two Bell Beaker y-dna results, and both were U106-. Of course, we don't know whether or not they were P312+. They could have simply been L11+ and no further up the tree.

I know two are not many, but they were found in what is today U106-rich country, and neither was U106+.

I tend to hold Bell Beaker accountable for Italo-Celtic, and I don't think U106 had any kind of a hand in that. So, yeah, I would give U106 a northeastern origin and have it caught up in the Corded Ware/Nordic Bronze Age thing fairly early.

Do you think U106 was in Corded Ware from its inception?  If so, what predecessor culture might it have come from?  I guess I'm just asking how and from what direction you think U106 got involved?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 15, 2012, 09:16:49 AM
If I understand you, you are assuming the data is not useful in it current state and therefore you will not consider it. I don't know how you know the data has a problem other than it doesn't fit your model.

Ok, let’s keep this simple: Are the majority of the 4000 haplotypes used to calculate the MRCA of P312+ clades hailing of UK ancestry paternally, yes or no?

... but whatever,   Fine.  Why don't you fix the data then?  You could help me do that if you could develop a spreadsheet that used the Excel "rand" function to randomly select rows of haplotypes out of a 2nd spreadsheet based on given sets of criteria (i.e. Geography and Subclade) and copy those rows into the target spreadsheet.  I'm not the re-sampling expert, but I assume you'd want to be able to create a number of these randomly selected sample spreadsheets in a big batch so you run TMRCAs on each.  If you can do that I'll figure out how to import these data sets into Ken Nordtvedt's Generation spreadsheet. I'm not making money on this stuff? Are you planning to?  There is no reason for you or me not to provide all of the data and formulas publicly. This has always been my practice.

I can randomly sample x number of haplotypes, however, I don’t work with Excel, I work with Matlab, but yeah if you give me an Excel spreadsheet, I can load it into Matlab, and I can write a code that samples x number of haplotypes at random from the array. I’m still confused by what you meant when you said provide formulas publicly? It is a computer code, that’s about it, what formula do you need to see, I already explained how it works. It compares alleles values at any given locus and choose the modal value as the one that minimizes the number of mutations in that locus, at the end all the mutations of all loci are added and divided by the product of the total number of loci times the sample size.

I think there are clines, as does RMS, but I think the clines are minor. Busby, and apparently yourself, think they are not present all (at least for L11.)

There is no east-west cline for R1b-L11+, at least not  from the data presented by Busby.et.al.2011. There are regional clines, they just don’t follow an East-West distribution.

In this sense I'm agreeing with you. I don't think it is worth it to do the data gyrations you are asking for in separating various TMRCA runs by country because the differences between countries for P312, L21, U152, U106, Z381 will relatively minor (probably 5-15%, maybe up to 20%.) Apparently you think they will be less, but either way it won't be conclusive.  So why should I attempt the gyrations of separating out the UK?

How do you know that the differences between the TMRCA of those clades will be less than 20%, have you done the experiment? Whoao, talk about preconceived notions!! Here, take a look at table-S2 of Myres.et.al.2010 the variance for R1b-S116(all) that is R1b-P312+ goes from 0.2333 in England(n=48) to 0.307 in Vaucluse, France, that is 31.76% higher than in England. 

I see that you say there is definitely regional variance. I'm not sure who there is both no cline and regional variance at the same time, but since you see this definite regional variance, please show it to us, hopefully on long haplotypes and with a large sample.

Well Mike, sorry, but there isn’t any representative data out there that is “hopefully on long haplotypes”, nonetheless if you wish, you can look at Busby.et.al.2011 Figure-2, and you will see that the regional variance in Western Europe varies from 0.20 to 0.40. Of course, since you know beforehand that there aren’t any academic studies out there on R1b with long haplotypes, you are cooking the strawman, but sorry pal, I aint falling for it. The data is out there, now if you choose to ignore it, is up to you.


No, I'm saying you've not made a compelling enough case for me to want to do extra work.

I have made my case, and explained my hypothesis quite a few times already, now if you choose to ignore it, or if you don’t find it compelling, good for you, let’s not waste my time either then. 

We've just discussed you think there are no geographic clines and I think they are minor, hence P312's diversity won't change drastically from one major European country to the next as long as the sample sizes are large. You are asking to pull out data by country. I don't have time to waste time.  I can calculate variance by country very quickly but it takes a while import stuff into Ken Nordtvedt's spreadsheet.

That’s purely wishful thinking, you have no idea if they are going to change or not, I can tell you that at least in the Academic studies published P312’s diversity does vary, but if you don’t consider an increase from 0.19 to 0.307 as drastic, well then I guess not.

I also understand, we just plain do NOT have enough data to do true randomly sampled cross-sectional surveys the way they should be done.  We don't have enough to data to be truly representative, period.   Sectioning the data by country is not enough. It should be done by ethnicity, by community/region (not necessarily country) and by subclade within those categories. I'm not a demographic expert, but what I listed is probably just the start.

Well, sectioning the data by country is a start, however, sectioning the data by regions that have known historical background, and that show continuity for quite some time based upon other factors would be preferable.

We don't have enough long haplotypes to do all of this. If we did, you'd probably complain that since many of the people are actually American citizens with MDKA's in these places we should probably throw those out.

Really Mike!! Now you are psychic? You know what I am going to say then? Good for you!!

You should probably join the National Genographic Project and convince them to sample rural areas all over Europe for people who are known to have g-grandparents and as far back as they know from their respective rural regions.  Then National Geno folks do this kind of thing, but haven't attempted any Pan-European survey.

Why?? There are plenty of academics out there sampling regions right now, in the last 2 years there have been three major studies published on the R1b field, each one going more into more resolution, so why shouldn’t we expect more to come?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 15, 2012, 10:52:44 AM


I'll recommend again that you download Ken Nordtvedt's documents and spreadsheet and figure it out.  I look at his powerpoints of the conceptual overview and have had several conversations with him.  At times, I see how it fits together, but only at a high level.  I have another things to worry about and I'm not that smart so I haven't tried to totally grapple with interclade parts of it.  Conceptually (the powerpoints) it makes sense and I trust that Ken is putting the concepts into the spreadsheet correctly.

Ok, let me put it in simpler words, I have no reason to download his spreadsheet, because I have no reason to doubt that the estimates are right, the “data” is what seems to be the problem.

If I understand you, you are assuming the data is not useful in it current state and therefore you will not consider it. I don't know how you know the data has a problem other than it doesn't fit your model.
... but whatever,   Fine.  Why don't you fix the data then?  

JeanL responded...
I can randomly sample x number of haplotypes, however, I don’t work with Excel, I work with Matlab, but yeah if you give me an Excel spreadsheet, I can load it into Matlab, and I can write a code that samples x number of haplotypes at random from the array. I’m still confused by what you meant when you said provide formulas publicly? It is a computer code, that’s about it, what formula do you need to see, I already explained how it works. It compares alleles values at any given locus and choose the modal value as the one that minimizes the number of mutations in that locus, at the end all the mutations of all loci are added and divided by the product of the total number of loci times the sample size.

All of the data I've described is posted. Download it yourself.  The benefits to the community as a whole are better if I keep the spreadsheets up to date, versus becoming a programmer.  There are no secrets other than, of course, as project admin I don't share kit contact information and the like for privacy concerns.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 15, 2012, 11:15:50 AM

In this sense I'm agreeing with you. I don't think it is worth it to do the data gyrations you are asking for in separating various TMRCA runs by country because the differences between countries for P312, L21, U152, U106, Z381 will relatively minor (probably 5-15%, maybe up to 20%.) Apparently you think they will be less, but either way it won't be conclusive.  So why should I attempt the gyrations of separating out the UK?

How do you know that the differences between the TMRCA of those clades will be less than 20%, have you done the experiment? Whoao, talk about preconceived notions!! Here, take a look at table-S2 of Myres.et.al.2010 the variance for R1b-S116(all) that is R1b-P312+ goes from 0.2333 in England(n=48) to 0.307 in Vaucluse, France, that is 31.76% higher than in England.  

I have no preconceived notions on variance of P312 by geography. If the intraclade variances are not much different, the intraclade TMRCAs won't be either. I've been tracking this stuff for over a year and done comparisons between geographies a hundred ways to Sunday. I'm not running an experiment just for you.  Run your own, but please use long haplotypes.  I think these 10 to 15 STR analyses are subject to uncertainty (and I've already explained why.)

Of course, since you know beforehand that there aren’t any academic studies out there on R1b with long haplotypes, you are cooking the strawman, but sorry pal, I aint falling for it. The data is out there, now if you choose to ignore it, is up to you.

If you think the data is adequate then you are smoking something.  

I just do the best I can with the data I've got.  That includes academic data, but through my own experimentation and observation I can tell you that running analyses on just a few STRs is just not enough.  

EDIT: The same goes with a sample of 20 or so from somewhere in France, like Vacluse, but ignoring the rest, or a sample of a handful in Switzerland. We don't have a good Pan-European survey.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 15, 2012, 11:21:05 AM
I have no preconceived notions on variance of P312 by geography. If the intraclade variances are not much different, the intraclade TMRCAs won't be either. I've been tracking this stuff for over a year and done comparisons between geographies a hundred ways to Sunday. I'm not running an experiment just for you.  Run your own, but please use long haplotypes.  I think these 10 to 15 STR analyses are subject to uncertainty (and I've already explained why.)

Well and I think the FTDNA projects are greatly overpopulated by folks with British Isles descent, and that yeah, you have the long haplotypes, but you lack the representative samples(and I’ve already explained why). So we are getting into an argument of what data is better, you claim FTDNA based on long haplotypes, I claim academics based on sampling standards, and recent findings that is not the amount of STRs but the choice of STRs.(Busby.et.al.2011)

If you think the data is adequate then you are smoking something. 

I just do the best I can with the data I've got.  That includes academic data, but through my own experimentation and observation I can tell you that running analyses on just a few STRs is just not enough.

I'm probably smoking something similar to what you are smoking that leads you to believe that the FTDNA data is representive of Western Europe. Moreover how can you tell that running analyses using 10 or 15 STRs gives erroneous results, you have yet to show that? So go ahead, and show how analyses performed on academic studies using 10 or 15 STRs give inconsistent results.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 15, 2012, 11:41:04 AM
I see that you say there is definitely regional variance. I'm not sure who there is both no cline and regional variance at the same time, but since you see this definite regional variance, please show it to us, hopefully on long haplotypes and with a large sample.

Well Mike, sorry, but there isn’t any representative data out there that is “hopefully on long haplotypes”, nonetheless if you wish, you can look at Busby.et.al.2011 Figure-2, and you will see that the regional variance in Western Europe varies from 0.20 to 0.40. Of course, since you know beforehand that there aren’t any academic studies out there on R1b with long haplotypes, you are cooking the strawman, but sorry pal, I aint falling for it. The data is out there, now if you choose to ignore it, is up to you.  

If you think the data is adequate then you are smoking something.  

I just do the best I can with the data I've got.  That includes academic data, but through my own experimentation and observation I can tell you that running analyses on just a few STRs is just not enough.

Moreover how can you tell that running analyses using 10 or 15 STRs gives erroneous results, you have yet to show that? So go ahead, and show how analyses performed on academic studies using 10 or 15 STRs give inconsistent results.

I said that 10 to 15 STR analyses (or less) are subject to uncertainty, not that they are necessarily erroneous.

I don't think I have to show about the uncertainty of the academic's short haplotype data.  Just read the studies. We see folks like Balaresque, Myres and Busby disagree vehemently depending on their unique gyrations of the data.  There is disagreement among the academic types not just on the conclusions, but on what data to look at and how to slice it and dice it.

Even on short haplotypes, do you really think the data is represenative of Europe?  What is your academic conglomerated database sample size by region of France?

Well and I think the FTDNA projects are greatly overpopulated by folks with British Isles descent, and that yeah, you have the long haplotypes, but you lack the representative samples(and I’ve already explained why). So we are getting into an argument of what data is better, you claim FTDNA based on long haplotypes, I claim academics based on sampling standards, and recent findings that is not the amount of STRs but the choice of STRs.(Busby.et.al.2011) 

You apparently are arguing with yourself.  I agree with you that FTDNA projects are heavily biased by folks with Isles MDKA's.   I agree!  I just think the long haplotypes and deep SNP testing are the level of data needed, but I agree that there is an Isles bias.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 15, 2012, 11:45:42 AM
EDIT: The same goes with a sample of 20 or so from somewhere in France, like Vacluse, but ignoring the rest, or a sample of a handful in Switzerland. We don't have a good Pan-European survey.

Well not having a good Pan-European survey hasn’t stop you from postulating hypothesis based on the variance that you have calculated from FTDNA projects, yet when someone tries to argue for a different hypothesis based on trends observed in some Academic studies, then it turns out we don’t have a “good” Pan-European survey, seems like a double standard to me. So what’s it going to be, dismiss data from Academic studies because it comes in 10-15 STR format, and for some reason(unknown to me) that would definitely give inconsistent results. While we are at it, what is the minimum threshold the Academics should aim for in terms of number of STRs, please do tell us how you arrive to that minimum number, it would be interesting to see the formulation. In the mean time, we can all keep calculating the TMRCA of P312+ based on an astonishing 4000 67 STR haplotypes, never mind that more than 60% of those are R1b-L21+, and that there is a disproportionate amount of people with the MDKA from the British Isles in those 4000 haplotypes.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 15, 2012, 11:47:51 AM
EDIT: The same goes with a sample of 20 or so from somewhere in France, like Vacluse, but ignoring the rest, or a sample of a handful in Switzerland. We don't have a good Pan-European survey.

Well not having a good Pan-European survey hasn’t stop you from postulating hypothesis based on the variance that you have calculated from FTDNA projects, yet when someone tries to argue for a different hypothesis based on trends observed in some Academic studies, then it turns out we don’t have a “good” Pan-European survey, seems like a double standard to me. ....

Okay, I apologize for being too hard on you.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 15, 2012, 11:50:32 AM
I said that 10 to 15 STR analyses (or less) are subject to uncertainty, not that they are necessarily erroneous.

Well and are we to believe that 67 STR analyses are not subject to uncertainty?

I don't think I have to show about the uncertainty of the academic's short haplotype data.  Just read the studies. We see folks like Balaresque, Myres and Busby disagree vehemently depending on their unique gyrations of the data.  There is disagreement among the academic types not just on the conclusions, but on what data to look at and how to slice it and dice it.

Yes from the way you wrote that it seems that all studies were published parallel and simply provided opposite views. In reality Busby.et.al.2011 analyzed the works of Myres.et.al.2010 and Balaresque.et.al.2010 and found inconsistencies in the data presented by Balaresque.et.al, but moreover they found the effect of a choice of STRs on age estimates. I have yet to see Balaresque or anyone of her team publish something saying they disagree with that.
 
Okay, I apologize for being too hard on you.

No worries, I admire you work, and I like the fact that you defend your beliefs so fiercely.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 15, 2012, 12:05:32 PM
I said that 10 to 15 STR analyses (or less) are subject to uncertainty, not that they are necessarily erroneous.

Well and are we to believe that 67 STR analyses are not subject to uncertainty?

Of course long haplotypes also allow uncertainty, but tripling or quadrupling the number of STR experiments with long haplotypes will reduce the uncertainty and with Ken Nordtvedt's tools we actually have the uncertainty measured and reported.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 15, 2012, 12:08:23 PM

Okay, I apologize for being too hard on you.

No worries, I admire you work, and I like the fact that you defend your beliefs so fiercely.

Believe it or not, I enjoy a good argument. I just like to keep the different points separate on their own merits before considering in context. When the sub-points get all tangled together it is confusing.

I've argued with my siblings at the dinner table growing up sp much that I guess I miss it.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 15, 2012, 12:39:54 PM
In the interest of moving on, I'll just present this as added information and not as evidence supporting any hypothesis.

....  We have a lot of data on these clades like U152, L2, DF27, L21, U106, Z381, etc.  You can just look at the modals, and go down another layer on the tree to look again.  The probable ancestral values kind of pop out at you. ...

From the R1b modals thread, just posted...
....
I haven't updated these Ysearch records yet, but they don't hold 111 markers anyway.  Based on some prodding from JeanL, I went through and rechecked them in the spreadsheets.

My opinion is that the Western Atlantic Modal Haplotype (WAMH) or the Super WAMH version of it are obsolete.  We now have much greater granularity in subclades.  WAMH is effectively superseded by the R1b-P312 (S116) modal.

If I compare the modal for P312 at 111 STRs with its three largest subclades I get the following differences from P312 for the major subclades of P312:

DF27 (CDYa=37 534=16 710=34 714=25 712=22)

U152 (456=15 549=12)

L21 (449=30 CDYa=37 714=25 522=11 712=20)

Except 522, these are all pretty fast STRs.  I some cases, such as 456, the modal teeters. U152's 15 at 456 is only slightly in the lead over the value of 16. In the case of L21, its 16 modal is only slightly in the lead over 15.

There is just not a lot of difference, even at 111 STRs.  
....
I'll go check U106 so we can compare it as well.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 15, 2012, 12:56:54 PM
Of course they are, but tripling or quadrupling the number of STR experiments with long haplotypes will reduce the uncertainty and with Ken Nordtvedt's tools we actually have the uncertainty measured and reported.

Yes, but that would be valid under the assumption that it is quantity of STR what matters and not choice of STR.  Of course if we are to assume that the uncertainty arises only from the data and not the mean mutation rate used per haplotype, then more is better, but if we take into account the choice of STR, then more isn’t always better.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on June 15, 2012, 01:49:52 PM
Of course they are, but tripling or quadrupling the number of STR experiments with long haplotypes will reduce the uncertainty and with Ken Nordtvedt's tools we actually have the uncertainty measured and reported.

Yes, but that would be valid under the assumption that it is quantity of STR what matters and not choice of STR.  Of course if we are to assume that the uncertainty arises only from the data and not the mean mutation rate used per haplotype, then more is better, but if we take into account the choice of STR, then more isn’t always better.

This is on the STR Wars thread as well, I compare variance both with a set of mixed speed markers and then with a subset that meet a 7000 year linear duration according to Marko Heinila. In all cases multi-copy (i.e. CDY, 464, 459, etc.) and null potential STRs (i.e.439, 425) are thrown out. In other words, in variance comparisons I have a rational, quality driven approach to using STRs. As far as Ken's TMRCA tool, he is essentially using everything but multi-copy STRs and requires the user to adjust nulls to an incremental GD.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on June 15, 2012, 02:02:30 PM
Jean, any chance you can take Mike up on his offer and move this elsewhere? I really do want to read about L51 when I click on this thread.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on June 15, 2012, 06:55:52 PM

I tend to suspect U106 arose in NE Europe from an L11* line that moved there from somewhere to the south or west a couple of centuries earlier.  I would link this to the bell beaker culture.  Well certainly every bit as much as I would link P312 to it.  

Here is a very useful paper on beakers peripheral elements
 http://www.aegeobalkanprehistory.net/article.php?id_art=10

The only exception I would take to what you posted is that we have two Bell Beaker y-dna results, and both were U106-. Of course, we don't know whether or not they were P312+. They could have simply been L11+ and no further up the tree.

I know two are not many, but they were found in what is today U106-rich country, and neither was U106+.

I tend to hold Bell Beaker accountable for Italo-Celtic, and I don't think U106 had any kind of a hand in that. So, yeah, I would give U106 a northeastern origin and have it caught up in the Corded Ware/Nordic Bronze Age thing fairly early.

Do you think U106 was in Corded Ware from its inception?  If so, what predecessor culture might it have come from?  I guess I'm just asking how and from what direction you think U106 got involved?

Well the current mainstream theories for beaker and corded ware give them very different origins.  IF these models are correct then there is no way U106 can be corded ware and P312 beaker. It just doesnt makes sense given L11 SNP just above both.  Also, you tend to get dates around 2500BC for P312 but somewhat younger for U106.

My favourite option is that around 2500BC some beaker groups headed north-east from perhaps central Europe and as a consequence an L11* lineage arrived in east Germany/Poland.  That lineage remained there and few hundred years later U106 was born among this L11* group who had moved to Poland.

The only way L11 can be both beaker and corded ware is if we turn the clock back to the Dutch model which actually derived beaker from corded ware/single grave people.  Personally I would rule nothing out.  I am have been long enough in this game to feel very cautious about any conclusions about the beaker culture.  There have been so many theories, changes in ideas, U-turns etc that I am not the sort of person who thinks the newer the model the more likely it is correct.  You would think that might be true with the increase in data over time but I have seen so much changes in ideas on beakers, even turning full circle.  Botrtom line is they moved too fast for RC dating to sort out the detail if you take into account all the caveats involved.  I think however that ancient DNA will solve this soon.  Once we have the same sort of numbers of beaker burials tested as we have for the earlier Neolithic then things may become apparent.  However I will reiterate that the majority of archaeologist do not see corded ware and beaker as comming from a common root in a way that would parallel P312 and U106 coming from a common root.  However, they could be wrong.  While Corded Ware origins seem to be nailed down, Beaker to me remains an enduring archaeological mystery where things just do not feel right to me and I think we are mssing a crucial part of the picture, perhaps in eastern Europe.    


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: rms2 on June 15, 2012, 09:51:17 PM
What I think is that we must be flexible about age estimates, both for the archaeological cultures and for the y haplogroups.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jean M on June 16, 2012, 07:22:37 AM
Well the current mainstream theories for beaker and corded ware give them very different origins. .... The only way L11 can be both beaker and corded ware is if we turn the clock back to the Dutch model which actually derived beaker from corded ware/single grave people.

Not so Alan. Your  "current mainstream theories" are out of date. Frankly what the majority of archaeologists who are not keeping up with developments think is irrelevant.  It is not evidence. Harrison and Heyd established not only the sequence from Yamnaya to Bell Beaker, but the influence of Yamnaya on a whole slew of other cultures including Corded Ware. There were separate routes from Yamnaya to the various daughter cultures.

The old idea of Corded Ware as a local descendant of previous cultures seemed logical at the time to archaeologists looking at a sequence of pottery shapes in their own back yards from Ertebolle (and related) through TRB to Corded Ware. We now know from ancient DNA that the TRB people were not descended from local hunter-gatherers. From a study of skull shape, they most likely came from the Balkans. It follows that the Corded Ware people were not direct descendants of the TRB people either, since they look more like hunter-gatherer types, as would be the case  if they had moved north from the steppe. Culturally of course they carried influences from Yamnaya.

On the specific problems of dating Corded Ware see Wlodarczak 2009, which I just added to the Mini-library. It is completely impossible for Bell Beaker to be derived from Corded Ware since both are of the same age. In fact Wlodarczak 2009 thinks the odd outliers among the early dates for Corded Ware should be ignored, and dates from dendrochronology in Switzerland are more reliable and precise, which would place the start of Corded Ware later than the start of BB.  

I know descent of BB from CW was a favourite idea of yours, but it does not wash and is not about to be resurrected.  


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: rms2 on June 16, 2012, 10:29:13 AM
What I was thinking, and did not really have time to post last night, was that U106 was in the northeast and became part of the Corded Ware culture, whether as part of its origin or under its influence. If Bell Beaker came from the east (specifically the Hungarian Plain) via Yamnaya influences, then P312 provided the bulk of it because it was farther south than U106 at the time. If BB came from Iberia, then P312 was the bulk of it because P312 had also gotten farther west than U106 by that time and is just in general a bigger clade than U106.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jean M on June 16, 2012, 10:58:56 AM
The problem here is the pot-is-person mind-set.  

Archaeologists do not use the label Bell Beaker unless the bell-shaped pottery is present. But the bell-shaped pottery was not the start of the parent culture. The culture of the people who eventually decided to make the pottery starts where Yamnaya people go their separate ways from the Carpathian Basin. One lot go west into Italy and across to Iberia. Another lot go north to the head of the Danube and then establish power centres north of the Alps. Both lots end up making the bell-shaped pottery.

Meanwhile other Yamnaya people start filtering up the other rivers going north from the steppe and create the Corded Ware Culture, which spreads out very widely, overlapping with BB in places.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: rms2 on June 16, 2012, 11:16:47 AM
The problem here is the pot-is-person mind-set . . .



I don't think that is the problem really.

We all know the tautology, "Pots aren't people".

But for convenience's sake and ease of communication, we speak as if a particular culture were composed of entirely one kind of people or, in this case, one y haplogroup.

If we really believed we couldn't do this and in some measure be right, we wouldn't get as excited about aDNA discoveries as we do.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jean M on June 16, 2012, 11:53:34 AM
Rich - I'm not arguing about the genetic composition of BB. I think you have the right idea about the main R1b subclade involved.

I'm trying to get across that what I call the Stelae People were the same bunch who later made Bell Beaker pots. The idea that "Bell Beaker came from Iberia" only holds up if we consider the pottery alone, not the people and where they came from. The Stelae People carried on into the Bell Beaker people. There are BB motifs on stelae. The Bell Beaker people carried on using Stelae sites and honouring the ancestors buried there. There is evidence from teeth that they were related. The tableware is not the be-all and end-all.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: rms2 on June 16, 2012, 11:55:38 AM
Rich - I'm not arguing about the exact genetic composition of BB. I'm trying to get across that what I call the Stelae People were the same bunch who later made Bell Beaker pots. The idea that "Bell Beaker came from Iberia" only holds up if we consider the pottery alone, not the people and where they came from. The Stelae People carried on into the Bell Beaker people. There are BB motifs on stelae. The Bell Beaker people carried on using Stelae sites and honouring the ancestors buried there. There is evidence from teeth that they were related.

Okay, I gotcha.

I was allowing for the possibility that Beaker may not have originated in Iberia. I think it probably did and that your Stelae People explanation is a good one.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on June 16, 2012, 12:42:07 PM
Well the current mainstream theories for beaker and corded ware give them very different origins. .... The only way L11 can be both beaker and corded ware is if we turn the clock back to the Dutch model which actually derived beaker from corded ware/single grave people.

Not so Alan. Your  "current mainstream theories" are out of date. Frankly what the majority of archaeologists who are not keeping up with developments think is irrelevant.  It is not evidence. Harrison and Heyd established not only the sequence from Yamnaya to Bell Beaker, but the influence of Yamnaya on a whole slew of other cultures including Corded Ware. There were separate routes from Yamnaya to the various daughter cultures.

They just gave one opinion out of many.  I want to see the opions of other copper age expert archaeologists on this to test its metal.  I know that numbers with an opinion do not make it more right but I want to see if their ideas become widely accepted.  The general change of society and behavour in that general direction of the eastern model has been recognised for generations but its rather vague and open to interpretation.  I just dont feel happy there is enough info although I wouldnt be surprised if they are right.  In fact I hope H&H are right because someone needs to be to ever solve this!  I am waiting to see how H&H's ideas hold out as they are relatively new and all that is new is not better as I have experienced many times in the never ending cycle of changes in perspectives in archaeology.  Call my cynical but I have been around the block following the beakers story crossing four different decades now and seen archaeology's megastars ideas rise and fall and rise again a few times.  So I tend to think a model needs to pass to see otther exoerts take on it and I would like to see more responses and new works on beaker to see if the copper age experts come to a consensus.  Until then its just an interesting option and the migratory aspect remains hazy anyway and probaby will for a few more years.  I dont see enough to feel anything like 'case closed' on beakers although interesting progress is being made.  Basically the way its going only ancient DNA will resolve the beaker issue

The old idea of Corded Ware as a local descendant of previous cultures seemed logical at the time to archaeologists looking at a sequence of pottery shapes in their own back yards from Ertebolle (and related) through TRB to Corded Ware. We now know from ancient DNA that the TRB people were not descended from local hunter-gatherers. From a study of skull shape, they most likely came from the Balkans.

The TRB from hunters idea was overturned anyway in the later 90s without DNA or physica; anthropology evidence.  In fact nearly all the hunters taking up farming theories had been dropped by the time of the book 'Europe's First Farmers' in the late 90s.


It follows that the Corded Ware people were not direct descendants of the TRB people either, since they look more like hunter-gatherer types, as would be the case  if they had moved north from the steppe. Culturally of course they carried influences from Yamnaya.

I think there has always been a feeling that Corded Ware was TRB plus some other elements anyway.  Noone ever denied that behavoural traits an 'influences' came in from the east.  The question was just migration.

On the specific problems of dating Corded Ware see Wlodarczak 2009, which I just added to the Mini-library. It is completely impossible for Bell Beaker to be derived from Corded Ware since both are of the same age. In fact Wlodarczak 2009 thinks the odd outliers among the early dates for Corded Ware should be ignored, and dates from dendrochronology in Switzerland are more reliable and precise, which would place the start of Corded Ware later than the start of BB.  

I know descent of BB from CW was a favourite idea of yours, but it does not wash and is not about to be resurrected.  

No I dont have a strong opinion of beaker origins as I think it has so far defeated a clear solution.  I know the dutch model but clearly it has been trumped by chronology for the last decade or so and I dont hold that in any sort of literal way.  What I wondered and have always felt is that the extreme east vs extreme west dichotomy just never felt right in terms of corded ware and beaker.  They are different and clealry defined but in a very broad way they are also similar in broad behavour.  So, I always felt they had common ancestry somewhere sometime.  However, its clearly not left the sort of trail with nobs on that archaeologists tended to want pre-DNA.  So, in a way, H&H are close to what I thought and I hope they are right.  However, a lot of the evidence looks a little vague and I want to see if that troubles copper age experts as much as it makes me a little wary.


We are slowly getting there.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jean M on June 16, 2012, 02:51:58 PM
They just gave one opinion out of many.

No Alan. They provided a mass of evidence for the continuation of Yamnaya into Bell Beaker. There has been remarkably little argument over it from other experts in the period. Instead support has been forthcoming from Lemercier on the Bell Beaker of southern France, and from the study of heritable traits in teeth.

It really doesn't matter what people think if they haven't read the paper. Those are dated views, which do not address the evidence supplied by Harrison and Heyd.  


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: princenuadha on June 16, 2012, 04:56:53 PM
There is evidence from teeth that they were related.

"They" as in the early western Bell Beakers and the Stelae People from Eastern Europe?

Could you point me to that evidence?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jean M on June 16, 2012, 07:57:29 PM
"They" as in the early western Bell Beakers and the Stelae People from Eastern Europe?

Could you point me to that evidence?

It is already being discussed on another thread, as you know: Swiss Bell Beaker population dynamics: eastern or southern influences? (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10716.0)

 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on June 19, 2012, 12:11:04 PM
"They" as in the early western Bell Beakers and the Stelae People from Eastern Europe?

Could you point me to that evidence?

It is already being discussed on another thread, as you know: Swiss Bell Beaker population dynamics: eastern or southern influences? (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10716.0)

 

I read the Harrison and Heyd paper on Sion again last night.  I get the general idea that cultural changes from an eastern source swept Europe and beaker was part of it.  I also understand that there were different beaker groups thought of as more western or southern and more central Eurropean.  They have the idea that a partial beaker package evolved in Portugal and then developed into the full package somewhere to the east. However, as far as I can see the Pyrennees is not thought any sort of origin point and it seems to be light on beaker.  While an eastern source for R1b (perhaps with L51 SNP happening in the SE France/NW Italy/Alps area does have its merits and ties in with the general direction of the spread of pan-European social change etc.  An eastern source for LP too makes sense as the real advantage it brings if for milk drinking.  It is not neccessary for milk consumption per se for a settled community as they can and originally must have processed it into cheese etc.  The real advantage of unprocessed cattle milk I would feel is for mobile groups and I can understand how selection of LP might have really been selected for among mobile pastoralists.  I clearly was not necessary for the first farmers in Europe even though cattle dairying of a non-nomadic type spread thought Europe from Bulgaria to England c. 5000-4000BC including what were the 1st farmers in northern and NW Europe.  So, I can see scenarios where the general east to west spread of R1b and LP and the general cultural changes tie together.  I cant really see any 'out of the Pyrenees' type model with much logic to it.  My gut feeling is that L51 first appeared around the western Alps/SE France in or on the cusp of the beaker period and spread from there. Its dates seem spot on and L51* (even if it is a sister clade rather than an ancestor of L11) has an incredibly beaker-like distribution.  I would like to know more about the immediate pre-beaker phase at Sion etc which Jean M has called the stelae people.  I just would like to see more fleshing out about their material culture, pottery, techology, burial rights etc and more importantly the distribution and lineage of this.  I would be more happy if these aspects of this phase other than the stelae themselves was fleshed out to see if more than just the stelae point to some sort  of external origin in this phase. 

As a complete aside, I was interested in the Sion use of NE-SW orientation.  This is the odd new orientation of irish Wedge Tombs whose dates of building almost perfectly correspond with the beaker phase in Ireland and often contain beakers.  The orientation is completely out of step with the megalithic tombs of the early farmers.  The only thing is that the Wedge Tombs have the wide area and main opening at the SW end.  However, this kind of use of both ends of a sacred access is also seen in Passage tombs where contemporary tombs of similar build like Maes Howe in Orkney aand Newgrange in Ireland had the passages on the same axis but with the passage at oopposite ends of the axis (in that case Midwinter sunset and midwinter sunrise.  So, I would not let the use of the opposite end of the SW-NE axis stop me wondering if there is a cultural connection between the use of this axis at Sion and Irish Wedge tombs.  The dates are very similar. 

As a real slightly left field thought, one thing I noticed is that L51 has a hotspot around Lough Erne which is a little unexpected in the earlier beaker phase which otherwise corresponds very well with L51* distribution.  Well....the famous Boa Island statue has been debated many times over and over with Iron Age and Early Christian era being the normal options.  Could it be copper age.  It looks very like a stelae from that era and is pretty unique.  Could it be linked to some early beaker or immediate pre-beaker exploritory phase? 

Here (on an admittedly pretty 'cosmic' website is the statue next to admittedly much later Scythian period steppes ones

http://www.mysteriousbritain.co.uk/forums/mysterious-britain/folklore-and-legends/milesians-scythians-discuss.html

OK I feel like I am going a bit Eric Von Danikan here but its interesting nonetheless.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 19, 2012, 01:30:40 PM
…However, as far as I can see the Pyrennees is not thought any sort of origin point and it seems to be light on beaker. 

The Pyrennees could have been the launchpad for Bell Beakers into Central Europe, however any number of possibilities remain open, the only thing we know thus far is that the pre and post-Beaker populations of Northern Spain were likely the same population based on the study done on dental morphology, on the other hand the is evidence for substantial population replacement in Southern France, essentially the area encompassing the Treilles Burial, as for the Pyrenees being light on Beaker, they had quite a beaker distribution, however  they only retained certain aspects of the Bell Beaker society, as far as I know, they did not appear to have experienced a change in funerary practices.

While an eastern source for R1b (perhaps with L51 SNP happening in the SE France/NW Italy/Alps area does have its merits and ties in with the general direction of the spread of pan-European social change etc. 

Do you have any evidence that points to an expanding culture from the east that reached Western Europe in the time frame that you are assuming? Right now the evidence points to Northern Spain as the launchpad for Bell Beaker, but if you know something else, please do share!

An eastern source for LP too makes sense as the real advantage it brings if for milk drinking.  It is not neccessary for milk consumption per se for a settled community as they can and originally must have processed it into cheese etc.  The real advantage of unprocessed cattle milk I would feel is for mobile groups and I can understand how selection of LP might have really been selected for among mobile pastoralists.

Yet Treilles, France circa 3000 BC was 26 for 26 C/C and lactose intolerant, and at the same time SJAPL, Southern Alava, Basque Country had 4/19 T/T individuals, and 2/19 C/T individuals. What is more interesting is that the frequencies point to Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium being violated, it could be due to small sample size, but it could be due to the population consisting of a native population, and a foreign population living together. The question would be, who where the natives and who were the foreigners at the time.

I clearly was not necessary for the first farmers in Europe even though cattle dairying of a non-nomadic type spread thought Europe from Bulgaria to England c. 5000-4000BC including what were the 1st farmers in northern and NW Europe.  So, I can see scenarios where the general east to west spread of R1b and LP and the general cultural changes tie together.  I cant really see any 'out of the Pyrenees' type model with much logic to it. 

Again, hopefully the studies that are undergoing in the Steppes would published soon, and perhaps they find LP in those remains, but the finding of LP in Southern Alava as of 3000 BC, and not anywhere else in Europe thus far analyzed, points to a spread of LP from SW Europe as the most likely scenario. Like I said this is could change, and the aDNA databases are greatly lacking, but it is just a piece of evidence right now contradicting the East-west spread of LP at the onset of the Chalcolithic.

My gut feeling is that L51 first appeared around the western Alps/SE France in or on the cusp of the beaker period and spread from there. Its dates seem spot on and L51* (even if it is a sister clade rather than an ancestor of L11) has an incredibly beaker-like distribution.  I would like to know more about the immediate pre-beaker phase at Sion etc which Jean M has called the stelae people.  I just would like to see more fleshing out about their material culture, pottery, techology, burial rights etc and more importantly the distribution and lineage of this.  I would be more happy if these aspects of this phase other than the stelae themselves was fleshed out to see if more than just the stelae point to some sort  of external origin in this phase. 

I place the origin of L51* in any of the mountainous areas around Western Europe, but I think it was widespread in the mountainous regions of Western Europe. We have evidence of a great deal of people continuing to use caves in the Western Pyrenean region while societies were developing in the Valleys, to me those folks were the R1b folks.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on June 19, 2012, 01:35:05 PM
Do you have any evidence that points to an expanding culture from the east that reached Western Europe in the time frame that you are assuming? Right now the evidence points to Northern Spain as the launchpad for Bell Beaker, but if you know something else, please do share!

Really, how so?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 19, 2012, 01:42:56 PM
Really, how so?

See here: http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10716.msg133067#msg133067 (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10716.msg133067#msg133067)

http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Desiderietal2008Figure-3.jpg (http://i1133.photobucket.com/albums/m582/jeanlohizun/Desiderietal2008Figure-3.jpg)

http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/5666/bbeaker.png (http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/5666/bbeaker.png)

Like I said before, it is nothing conclusive, but the hypothesis of a spread of Bell Beakers from Northern Spain is supported by the dental morphology study. I would like to see evidence that points to a spread from other regions then.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on June 20, 2012, 09:29:11 PM
…However, as far as I can see the Pyrennees is not thought any sort of origin point and it seems to be light on beaker. 

The Pyrennees could have been the launchpad for Bell Beakers into Central Europe, however any number of possibilities remain open, the only thing we know thus far is that the pre and post-Beaker populations of Northern Spain were likely the same population based on the study done on dental morphology, on the other hand the is evidence for substantial population replacement in Southern France, essentially the area encompassing the Treilles Burial, as for the Pyrenees being light on Beaker, they had quite a beaker distribution, however  they only retained certain aspects of the Bell Beaker society, as far as I know, they did not appear to have experienced a change in funerary practices.

While an eastern source for R1b (perhaps with L51 SNP happening in the SE France/NW Italy/Alps area does have its merits and ties in with the general direction of the spread of pan-European social change etc. 

Do you have any evidence that points to an expanding culture from the east that reached Western Europe in the time frame that you are assuming? Right now the evidence points to Northern Spain as the launchpad for Bell Beaker, but if you know something else, please do share!

An eastern source for LP too makes sense as the real advantage it brings if for milk drinking.  It is not neccessary for milk consumption per se for a settled community as they can and originally must have processed it into cheese etc.  The real advantage of unprocessed cattle milk I would feel is for mobile groups and I can understand how selection of LP might have really been selected for among mobile pastoralists.

Yet Treilles, France circa 3000 BC was 26 for 26 C/C and lactose intolerant, and at the same time SJAPL, Southern Alava, Basque Country had 4/19 T/T individuals, and 2/19 C/T individuals. What is more interesting is that the frequencies point to Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium being violated, it could be due to small sample size, but it could be due to the population consisting of a native population, and a foreign population living together. The question would be, who where the natives and who were the foreigners at the time.

I clearly was not necessary for the first farmers in Europe even though cattle dairying of a non-nomadic type spread thought Europe from Bulgaria to England c. 5000-4000BC including what were the 1st farmers in northern and NW Europe.  So, I can see scenarios where the general east to west spread of R1b and LP and the general cultural changes tie together.  I cant really see any 'out of the Pyrenees' type model with much logic to it. 

Again, hopefully the studies that are undergoing in the Steppes would published soon, and perhaps they find LP in those remains, but the finding of LP in Southern Alava as of 3000 BC, and not anywhere else in Europe thus far analyzed, points to a spread of LP from SW Europe as the most likely scenario. Like I said this is could change, and the aDNA databases are greatly lacking, but it is just a piece of evidence right now contradicting the East-west spread of LP at the onset of the Chalcolithic.

My gut feeling is that L51 first appeared around the western Alps/SE France in or on the cusp of the beaker period and spread from there. Its dates seem spot on and L51* (even if it is a sister clade rather than an ancestor of L11) has an incredibly beaker-like distribution.  I would like to know more about the immediate pre-beaker phase at Sion etc which Jean M has called the stelae people.  I just would like to see more fleshing out about their material culture, pottery, techology, burial rights etc and more importantly the distribution and lineage of this.  I would be more happy if these aspects of this phase other than the stelae themselves was fleshed out to see if more than just the stelae point to some sort  of external origin in this phase. 

I place the origin of L51* in any of the mountainous areas around Western Europe, but I think it was widespread in the mountainous regions of Western Europe. We have evidence of a great deal of people continuing to use caves in the Western Pyrenean region while societies were developing in the Valleys, to me those folks were the R1b folks.


Why would LP be selected for in a hold out hunter gather group in the mountains?  I can understand it becoming selected for among long distance mobile pastoralists where cheese making is inconvenient but I cant see it taking off among a group who have rejected farming.  I believe LP was always present in low numbers and its just a question of selection for it.  LP is high in areas associated with a long history of cattle dairying, transhumance etc and in many areas the selection could have been going on until a few generations ago.  I dont think frequency today tells us much.  I am not sure if diversity has every been measured for LP or even if its possible. 


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 20, 2012, 09:38:14 PM
Why would LP be selected for in a hold out hunter gather group in the mountains?  I can understand it becoming selected for among long distance mobile pastoralists where cheese making is inconvenient but I cant see it taking off among a group who have rejected farming.  I believe LP was always present in low numbers and its just a question of selection for it.  LP is high in areas associated with a long history of cattle dairying, transhumance etc and in many areas the selection could have been going on until a few generations ago.  I dont think frequency today tells us much.  I am not sure if diversity has every been measured for LP or even if its possible. 


Uhmm, why not??? Thus far the only place that shows LP is the Neolithic settlement of SJAPL in Southern Alava circa 3000 BC. You do know Basques have amongst the highest levels of LP in all of Europe? It looks to me that the LP gene was likely a neutral gene in these folks, who underwent positive selection in the last 5000 years or so. Also, like I said before, the few studies done out there show continuity in pre- and post-Beaker populations in Northern Spain, so there is a very real expansion that took place during the Bell Beaker, whether that expansion was initiated by farmers from Southern Portugal, or was picked up by Hunter Gatherers in Northern Spain, remains to be decided, but I think it fits the model of an expanding population out of Iberia. Also, you can look at the mt-DNA counterparts, yes mt-DNA H has appeared in Neolithic remains in Central Europe, however its frequency is usually ~20%, and often missing from Megalithic sites. Thus far the Neolithic sites in the Basque Country are very rich in mt-DNA H(i.e. 40-50%). So if an expanding population took off from there, it could explain the increment in the frequency of mt-DNA H observed between populations of Neolithic Central Europe and modern Central Europeans. Of course that is a huge leap of faith, because there are tons of factors that could have driven up the frequency of mt-DNA H in Central Europe.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: rms2 on June 21, 2012, 07:31:02 AM
One thing that is interesting about the LP results from SJAPL is that 4 of the 6 LP results were homozygotic. That is, they had T/T at 13910 rather than the heterozygotic T/C.

According to Razib Khan's commentary here (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2012/01/the-milkmen/#more-15381), that is out of Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium, which would predict ~7 heterozygotes, not 2. He goes on to speculate that the LP picture at SJAPL could be the product of the relatively recent admixture of two distinct populations.

Quote from: Razib Khan
HWE [Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium] makes a few assumptions. For example, no selection, migration, mutation, or assortative mating. Deviation from HWE is suggestive of one of these dynamics. The sample size here is small, but the deviation is not to be dismissed. Recall that lactase persistence has dominant inheritance patterns. If the trait was being positively selected for you would only need one copy. The enrichment of homozygotes is unexpected if selection in situ is occurring here. It can not be ruled out that one is observing the admixture of two distinct populations. One generation of random mating would generate HWE, but when populations hybridize in realistic scenarios this is not always a plausible assumption. Rather, assortative mating often persists over the generations, slowing down the diminishing of population substructure.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 21, 2012, 09:32:04 AM
One thing that is interesting about the LP results from SJAPL is that 4 of the 6 LP results were homozygotic. That is, they had T/T at 13910 rather than the heterozygotic T/C.

According to Razib Khan's commentary here (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2012/01/the-milkmen/#more-15381), that is out of Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium, which would predict ~7 heterozygotes, not 2. He goes on to speculate that the LP picture at SJAPL could be the product of the relatively recent admixture of two distinct populations.

Quote from: Razib Khan
HWE [Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium] makes a few assumptions. For example, no selection, migration, mutation, or assortative mating. Deviation from HWE is suggestive of one of these dynamics. The sample size here is small, but the deviation is not to be dismissed. Recall that lactase persistence has dominant inheritance patterns. If the trait was being positively selected for you would only need one copy. The enrichment of homozygotes is unexpected if selection in situ is occurring here. It can not be ruled out that one is observing the admixture of two distinct populations. One generation of random mating would generate HWE, but when populations hybridize in realistic scenarios this is not always a plausible assumption. Rather, assortative mating often persists over the generations, slowing down the diminishing of population substructure.

That is what I said just a few posts above:

Yet Treilles, France circa 3000 BC was 26 for 26 C/C and lactose intolerant, and at the same time SJAPL, Southern Alava, Basque Country had 4/19 T/T individuals, and 2/19 C/T individuals. What is more interesting is that the frequencies point to Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium being violated, it could be due to small sample size, but it could be due to the population consisting of a native population, and a foreign population living together. The question would be, who where the natives and who were the foreigners at the time.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on June 21, 2012, 02:27:35 PM
Why would LP be selected for in a hold out hunter gather group in the mountains?  I can understand it becoming selected for among long distance mobile pastoralists where cheese making is inconvenient but I cant see it taking off among a group who have rejected farming.  I believe LP was always present in low numbers and its just a question of selection for it.  LP is high in areas associated with a long history of cattle dairying, transhumance etc and in many areas the selection could have been going on until a few generations ago.  I dont think frequency today tells us much.  I am not sure if diversity has every been measured for LP or even if its possible.  


Uhmm, why not??? Thus far the only place that shows LP is the Neolithic settlement of SJAPL in Southern Alava circa 3000 BC. You do know Basques have amongst the highest levels of LP in all of Europe? It looks to me that the LP gene was likely a neutral gene in these folks, who underwent positive selection in the last 5000 years or so. Also, like I said before, the few studies done out there show continuity in pre- and post-Beaker populations in Northern Spain, so there is a very real expansion that took place during the Bell Beaker, whether that expansion was initiated by farmers from Southern Portugal, or was picked up by Hunter Gatherers in Northern Spain, remains to be decided, but I think it fits the model of an expanding population out of Iberia. Also, you can look at the mt-DNA counterparts, yes mt-DNA H has appeared in Neolithic remains in Central Europe, however its frequency is usually ~20%, and often missing from Megalithic sites. Thus far the Neolithic sites in the Basque Country are very rich in mt-DNA H(i.e. 40-50%). So if an expanding population took off from there, it could explain the increment in the frequency of mt-DNA H observed between populations of Neolithic Central Europe and modern Central Europeans. Of course that is a huge leap of faith, because there are tons of factors that could have driven up the frequency of mt-DNA H in Central Europe.


 LP gene maybe was in solution at low levels but not being selected for a long time.  If LP had been present in the early farmers in general it would surely have been selected for. Cattle dairing certainly was pre-copper age (in western European terms) and appears to have spread across Europe starting in Bulgaria c. 5000BC or earlier and as far as the Britian and Ireland by 4000BC.  If LP existed in those pre-4000BC farmers and if LP was an advantage worth having it would have been selected for in a band leading from Bulgaria through central Europe.  It either was not in those populations or it wasnt really an advantage for those cattle dairy farmers maybe because they always processed their milk into cheese etc.  That to me suggests that mobile pastoralism where you dont want tied down is where milk drinking comes in, not dairying per se.  That is where the eastern spread of LP in the copper age makes more sense to me.  There was a sustained phase of mobile pastorlism which would have selected for LP.  I just dont see anything similar originating in Iberia.  


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: JeanL on June 21, 2012, 03:14:00 PM
… That to me suggests that mobile pastoralism where you dont want tied down is where milk drinking comes in, not dairying per se.  That is where the eastern spread of LP in the copper age makes more sense to me.  There was a sustained phase of mobile pastorlism which would have selected for LP.  I just dont see anything similar originating in Iberia. 

Perhaps you ought to read this paper(see below) about Bell Beaker presence in the Pyrenees, they talk about how Pyrenean herders infiltrated Southeastern France. Also interesting in that paper is that while Catalonia has Types 1 and II of Bell Beakers, sharing it with Southeastern France and the Southeastern portion of the Pyrenees, the Basque Country only had Type III Bell Beakers, and it was shared with SW France, they only have one type of Beaker. Mind you this was written before any study done on dental morphology or even the aDNA study, they actually propose the migration vector going from the Pyrenees to Southeastern France based on the evolution of the Bell Beaker types. I recommend you read up about pastoralism in the Basque Country, in fact, they had mobile pastoralism, and it is believed to be linked to the arrival Megalithism, although some authors argue for a local origin of Megalithism in the upper Basque Country, and a demic diffusion in the lower Ebro Valley. Anyhow, here is the paper about Bell Beaker Culture in the Pyrenees.

 El Vaso campaniforme de la Cultura Pirenaica (http://www.euskomedia.org/PDFAnlt/munibe/1962339352.pdf)

Quote from: Bosch-Gimpera.et.al

[…]
No nos  convencen los argumentos aducidos para un origen extrapeninsular del vaso campaniforme y seguimos creyendo esta cerámica aparecida en la evolución de la cultura de las cuevas durante el eneolítico y considerando que tal aparición debe buscarse sobre todo en el valle del Guadalquivir desde donde se propagó a otros territories y a las demás culturas peninsulares con las relacions intesas que se desarrollaron en el eneolítico (11) y también que la cultura pirenaica, extendida alrededor del Pirineo y avanzando por el Sudeste de Francia hasta los Alpes y la Borgoña, fue unos de los principales puntos de partida para la expansion hacia otras regions de Europe. Los pastores pirenaicos con las relaciones del eneolítico que dieron lugar a un intercambio de tipos y de formas de cultura, sin que sea preciso para explicarlos pensar en grandes movimientos de pueblos después de adopter los tipos de las puntas de flecha de los almerienses al entrar en contacto con ellos extendidos hasta los territorios de intersección con las estribaciones pirenaicas se convirtieron en comerciantes y hasta cierto punto en guerreros, al infiltrarse entro los pueblos de la cultura de las cuevas del SE. de Francia, propaganda allí el uso del cobre y buscando sus filones natives, así como el vaso campaniforme que había sido adoptado como una “moda” o una ceramica “de lujo” en contraste con la sin decoración que parece típica de ellos. A través del territorio pirenaico del SE. de France llegaron al de Cataluña, en movimiento inverso, tipos procedentes del N. de Italia, así como la propia ceramic del vaso campaniforme adopto la decoración de impresiones de cuerdas centroeuropeas o como, a lo largo de la costa atlántica francesa llegaron otras cosas, entre ellas el hacha de combate de Balenkaleku.

Translation:(I’m trying to give it my best)

Quote from: Bosch-Gimpera.et.al
We are not convinced by the argument which attributes an extra peninsular origin to the Bell Beaker culture, and we still continue to believe that this type of ceramics appeared in the evolution of the cave cultures during the eNeolithic and we considering that its apparition must be looked for in the Valley of Guadalquivir from where it likely propagated to other territories and peninsular cultures with the intense relations that developed during the eNeolithic , also that the Pyrenean culture, which extended around the Pyrenees and advanced to Southeastern France until it reached the Alps and Burgundy, was likely one of the amongst the launch pads for the expansion of this culture to other European regions. The Pyrenean herders during the eNeolithic gave rise to the interchange of types and forms of culture, without needing to explain it based on assuming  great population movements, after adopting the V-tip arrows from the Almerienses, once the latter came in contact with them after they expanded until the Pyrenees, the Pyrenean herders became traders and up to a point warriors, they infiltrated the people of the Cave cultures in Southeastern France, and propagated there the usage of copper, as well as the Bell Beakers. The Bell Beaker was adopted as a “trend” or a “luxurious” ceramic with the local ceramic type which wasn’t decorated. It was through the Pyrenean territory of Southeastern France that the Bell Beaker influences arrived in Catalonia, this time coming in the opposite way from Northern Italy, there is also a presence of Corded Ware impressions in the Bell Beaker package that arrived in Catalonia, throughout the Atlantic coast of France several things diffused as well, such as the Balenkaleku combat axe.





Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on June 21, 2012, 03:34:28 PM
One thing that is interesting about the LP results from SJAPL is that 4 of the 6 LP results were homozygotic. That is, they had T/T at 13910 rather than the heterozygotic T/C.

According to Razib Khan's commentary here (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2012/01/the-milkmen/#more-15381), that is out of Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium, which would predict ~7 heterozygotes, not 2. He goes on to speculate that the LP picture at SJAPL could be the product of the relatively recent admixture of two distinct populations.

Quote from: Razib Khan
HWE [Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium] makes a few assumptions. For example, no selection, migration, mutation, or assortative mating. Deviation from HWE is suggestive of one of these dynamics. The sample size here is small, but the deviation is not to be dismissed. Recall that lactase persistence has dominant inheritance patterns. If the trait was being positively selected for you would only need one copy. The enrichment of homozygotes is unexpected if selection in situ is occurring here. It can not be ruled out that one is observing the admixture of two distinct populations. One generation of random mating would generate HWE, but when populations hybridize in realistic scenarios this is not always a plausible assumption. Rather, assortative mating often persists over the generations, slowing down the diminishing of population substructure.

That is what I said just a few posts above:

Yet Treilles, France circa 3000 BC was 26 for 26 C/C and lactose intolerant, and at the same time SJAPL, Southern Alava, Basque Country had 4/19 T/T individuals, and 2/19 C/T individuals. What is more interesting is that the frequencies point to Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium being violated, it could be due to small sample size, but it could be due to the population consisting of a native population, and a foreign population living together. The question would be, who where the natives and who were the foreigners at the time.


I dont know much about the Neolithic and early Copper Age of the Baque country.  Do you have any papers on the subject?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on June 21, 2012, 03:35:56 PM
… That to me suggests that mobile pastoralism where you dont want tied down is where milk drinking comes in, not dairying per se.  That is where the eastern spread of LP in the copper age makes more sense to me.  There was a sustained phase of mobile pastorlism which would have selected for LP.  I just dont see anything similar originating in Iberia.  

Perhaps you ought to read this paper(see below) about Bell Beaker presence in the Pyrenees, they talk about how Pyrenean herders infiltrated Southeastern France. Also interesting in that paper is that while Catalonia has Types 1 and II of Bell Beakers, sharing it with Southeastern France and the Southeastern portion of the Pyrenees, the Basque Country only had Type III Bell Beakers, and it was shared with SW France, they only have one type of Beaker. Mind you this was written before any study done on dental morphology or even the aDNA study, they actually propose the migration vector going from the Pyrenees to Southeastern France based on the evolution of the Bell Beaker types. I recommend you read up about pastoralism in the Basque Country, in fact, they had mobile pastoralism, and it is believed to be linked to the arrival Megalithism, although some authors argue for a local origin of Megalithism in the upper Basque Country, and a demic diffusion in the lower Ebro Valley. Anyhow, here is the paper about Bell Beaker Culture in the Pyrenees.

 El Vaso campaniforme de la Cultura Pirenaica (http://www.euskomedia.org/PDFAnlt/munibe/1962339352.pdf)

Quote from: Bosch-Gimpera.et.al

[…]
No nos  convencen los argumentos aducidos para un origen extrapeninsular del vaso campaniforme y seguimos creyendo esta cerámica aparecida en la evolución de la cultura de las cuevas durante el eneolítico y considerando que tal aparición debe buscarse sobre todo en el valle del Guadalquivir desde donde se propagó a otros territories y a las demás culturas peninsulares con las relacions intesas que se desarrollaron en el eneolítico (11) y también que la cultura pirenaica, extendida alrededor del Pirineo y avanzando por el Sudeste de Francia hasta los Alpes y la Borgoña, fue unos de los principales puntos de partida para la expansion hacia otras regions de Europe. Los pastores pirenaicos con las relaciones del eneolítico que dieron lugar a un intercambio de tipos y de formas de cultura, sin que sea preciso para explicarlos pensar en grandes movimientos de pueblos después de adopter los tipos de las puntas de flecha de los almerienses al entrar en contacto con ellos extendidos hasta los territorios de intersección con las estribaciones pirenaicas se convirtieron en comerciantes y hasta cierto punto en guerreros, al infiltrarse entro los pueblos de la cultura de las cuevas del SE. de Francia, propaganda allí el uso del cobre y buscando sus filones natives, así como el vaso campaniforme que había sido adoptado como una “moda” o una ceramica “de lujo” en contraste con la sin decoración que parece típica de ellos. A través del territorio pirenaico del SE. de France llegaron al de Cataluña, en movimiento inverso, tipos procedentes del N. de Italia, así como la propia ceramic del vaso campaniforme adopto la decoración de impresiones de cuerdas centroeuropeas o como, a lo largo de la costa atlántica francesa llegaron otras cosas, entre ellas el hacha de combate de Balenkaleku.

Translation:(I’m trying to give it my best)

Quote from: Bosch-Gimpera.et.al
We are not convinced by the argument which attributes an extra peninsular origin to the Bell Beaker culture, and we still continue to believe that this type of ceramics appeared in the evolution of the cave cultures during the eNeolithic and we considering that its apparition must be looked for in the Valley of Guadalquivir from where it likely propagated to other territories and peninsular cultures with the intense relations that developed during the eNeolithic , also that the Pyrenean culture, which extended around the Pyrenees and advanced to Southeastern France until it reached the Alps and Burgundy, was likely one of the amongst the launch pads for the expansion of this culture to other European regions. The Pyrenean herders during the eNeolithic gave rise to the interchange of types and forms of culture, without needing to explain it based on assuming  great population movements, after adopting the V-tip arrows from the Almerienses, once the latter came in contact with them after they expanded until the Pyrenees, the Pyrenean herders became traders and up to a point warriors, they infiltrated the people of the Cave cultures in Southeastern France, and propagated there the usage of copper, as well as the Bell Beakers. The Bell Beaker was adopted as a “trend” or a “luxurious” ceramic with the local ceramic type which wasn’t decorated. It was through the Pyrenean territory of Southeastern France that the Bell Beaker influences arrived in Catalonia, this time coming in the opposite way from Northern Italy, there is also a presence of Corded Ware impressions in the Bell Beaker package that arrived in Catalonia, throughout the Atlantic coast of France several things diffused as well, such as the Balenkaleku combat axe.





Eskerrik asko!  I will have a read over that


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: princenuadha on June 22, 2012, 08:57:52 PM
"They" as in the early western Bell Beakers and the Stelae People from Eastern Europe?

Could you point me to that evidence?

It is already being discussed on another thread, as you know: Swiss Bell Beaker population dynamics: eastern or southern influences? (http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10716.0)

 

Thanks. I haven't been able to download that paper yet but I wonder if that migration is somehow related to the unusual French plot in figure 10 from Desideri's 2008 paper. One of the French plots sits between the Czechs!

Anyways, would you mind looking over a post (http://eurogenes.blogspot.com/2012/05/r1b-bell-beakers-and-urnfield-tradition.html?m=1) (actually 3) I made at polako's site, arguing the route of r1b in Western Europe? I'd like to have your take on the points I made : )


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on August 13, 2012, 08:26:47 PM
Is Argiedude still on this forum? Are there any problems with his findings?
I just found it interesting that he wrote "In the case of Mongolia, Iran, and Yemen, L51* were the only type of L51 found."

I wonder where L51*'s L11 friends were and why they didn't go east with him? Maybe L51 was out there before L11 came about.

We do have U152 with Bashkir's though.

Quote from: Argiedude
There's no intermediate branch between L51 and L11 in R1b. Richard Rocca apparently found 2 Italian L51* samples. I was able to locate 4 probable L51* samples, including the 2 Italians. The 4 are derived for 18096360 and 19425608 (base position, not rs), and are negative for L11. L51 wasn't in the range of the tested section of the y-chromosome, that's why I say apparently, but I doubt I made a mistake. The 4 samples are HG01066, NA19720, NA20537, NA20785 (Puerto Rico, Mexico, Italy, Italy).

Now the interesting thing is that there is one more SNP, base position 19418178, which is ancestral in L23*, but derived in L11. This SNP had a good call in 3 of the presumed L51* samples, and it turns out 2 were ancestral and 1 derived (Puerto Rico, Italy ancestral; Mexico derived). So we might be looking at a new step in the R1b branch, located between L51 and L11.

And by the way, here's a nice map of L51* that I made just the other day.

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/5202/l51updated2012.gif

Note something very interesting. In the case of Mongolia, Iran, and Yemen, L51* were the only type of L51 found. Remember that L51 includes L51*, L11*, U106, P312*, L21, U152.
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2012-08/1344900105


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on August 13, 2012, 08:59:44 PM
Is Argiedude still on this forum? Are there any problems with his findings?
I just found it interesting that he wrote "In the case of Mongolia, Iran, and Yemen, L51* were the only type of L51 found."

I wonder where L51*'s L11 friends were and why they didn't go east with him? Maybe L51 was out there before L11 came about.

We do have U152 with Bashkir's though.

Quote from: Argiedude
There's no intermediate branch between L51 and L11 in R1b. Richard Rocca apparently found 2 Italian L51* samples. I was able to locate 4 probable L51* samples, including the 2 Italians. The 4 are derived for 18096360 and 19425608 (base position, not rs), and are negative for L11. L51 wasn't in the range of the tested section of the y-chromosome, that's why I say apparently, but I doubt I made a mistake. The 4 samples are HG01066, NA19720, NA20537, NA20785 (Puerto Rico, Mexico, Italy, Italy).

Now the interesting thing is that there is one more SNP, base position 19418178, which is ancestral in L23*, but derived in L11. This SNP had a good call in 3 of the presumed L51* samples, and it turns out 2 were ancestral and 1 derived (Puerto Rico, Italy ancestral; Mexico derived). So we might be looking at a new step in the R1b branch, located between L51 and L11.

And by the way, here's a nice map of L51* that I made just the other day.

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/5202/l51updated2012.gif

Note something very interesting. In the case of Mongolia, Iran, and Yemen, L51* were the only type of L51 found. Remember that L51 includes L51*, L11*, U106, P312*, L21, U152.
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2012-08/1344900105

The Bashkiri result has little meaning since all the U152+ men had the same exact halpotype. They could have moved out there 100 years ago or 500 years ago. As for the Mongolian result, it may or may not be L51+ as Argiedude has only predicted it based on DYS426=13. While not very common, there are L51- kits with DYS426=13.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on August 13, 2012, 09:00:53 PM
Is Argiedude still on this forum? Are there any problems with his findings?
I just found it interesting that he wrote "In the case of Mongolia, Iran, and Yemen, L51* were the only type of L51 found."

I wonder where L51*'s L11 friends were and why they didn't go east with him? Maybe L51 was out there before L11 came about.

We do have U152 with Bashkir's though.

Quote from: Argiedude
There's no intermediate branch between L51 and L11 in R1b. Richard Rocca apparently found 2 Italian L51* samples. I was able to locate 4 probable L51* samples, including the 2 Italians. The 4 are derived for 18096360 and 19425608 (base position, not rs), and are negative for L11. L51 wasn't in the range of the tested section of the y-chromosome, that's why I say apparently, but I doubt I made a mistake. The 4 samples are HG01066, NA19720, NA20537, NA20785 (Puerto Rico, Mexico, Italy, Italy).

Now the interesting thing is that there is one more SNP, base position 19418178, which is ancestral in L23*, but derived in L11. This SNP had a good call in 3 of the presumed L51* samples, and it turns out 2 were ancestral and 1 derived (Puerto Rico, Italy ancestral; Mexico derived). So we might be looking at a new step in the R1b branch, located between L51 and L11.

And by the way, here's a nice map of L51* that I made just the other day.

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/5202/l51updated2012.gif

Note something very interesting. In the case of Mongolia, Iran, and Yemen, L51* were the only type of L51 found. Remember that L51 includes L51*, L11*, U106, P312*, L21, U152.
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2012-08/1344900105

That is interesting.  RR's L51* distribution map is interesting.  Problem is of course it doesnt tell anything about direction of spread and origin point.  I tended to think that it spread out from the west-Alpine area but maybe the eastern extremity (which I think was somewhere like SE Germany/Poland was actually nearer the origin and that there was a period when there was only L51* and it lay in the east.  I would however have thought that L51*'s ratio to L11 and derived can only have been high either somewhere in the east where L11 is low or in an early period when L11 hadnt come about. I can only think that the steppe Iranians were in some way the link between Iran and Mongolia.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on August 13, 2012, 11:19:43 PM
That is interesting.  RR's L51* distribution map is interesting.  Problem is of course it doesnt tell anything about direction of spread and origin point.  I tended to think that it spread out from the west-Alpine area but maybe the eastern extremity (which I think was somewhere like SE Germany/Poland was actually nearer the origin and that there was a period when there was only L51* and it lay in the east.  I would however have thought that L51*'s ratio to L11 and derived can only have been high either somewhere in the east where L11 is low or in an early period when L11 hadnt come about. I can only think that the steppe Iranians were in some way the link between Iran and Mongolia.

I had created a new map based on the recent Niederstätter, et al. (2012) study:

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_v003.png (http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_v003.png)

We have to keep in mind that L51(xP312,U106) may hold a hidden mutation and be a little brother to P312 and U106. Either way, I don't think there is any doubt that the distribution is primarily Franco-Italian.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on August 14, 2012, 01:31:33 AM
That is interesting.  RR's L51* distribution map is interesting.  Problem is of course it doesnt tell anything about direction of spread and origin point.  I tended to think that it spread out from the west-Alpine area but maybe the eastern extremity (which I think was somewhere like SE Germany/Poland was actually nearer the origin and that there was a period when there was only L51* and it lay in the east.  I would however have thought that L51*'s ratio to L11 and derived can only have been high either somewhere in the east where L11 is low or in an early period when L11 hadnt come about. I can only think that the steppe Iranians were in some way the link between Iran and Mongolia.

I had created a new map based on the recent Niederstätter, et al. (2012) study:

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_v003.png (http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_v003.png)

We have to keep in mind that L51(xP312,U106) may hold a hidden mutation and be a little brother to P312 and U106. Either way, I don't think there is any doubt that the distribution is primarily Franco-Italian.

Very nice work. I noticed that the heavier concentrations are sure following some of the major landforms of Europe.

MJost


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Heber on August 14, 2012, 03:53:47 AM
That is interesting.  RR's L51* distribution map is interesting.  Problem is of course it doesnt tell anything about direction of spread and origin point.  I tended to think that it spread out from the west-Alpine area but maybe the eastern extremity (which I think was somewhere like SE Germany/Poland was actually nearer the origin and that there was a period when there was only L51* and it lay in the east.  I would however have thought that L51*'s ratio to L11 and derived can only have been high either somewhere in the east where L11 is low or in an early period when L11 hadnt come about. I can only think that the steppe Iranians were in some way the link between Iran and Mongolia.

I had created a new map based on the recent Niederstätter, et al. (2012) study:

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_v003.png (http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_v003.png)

We have to keep in mind that L51(xP312,U106) may hold a hidden mutation and be a little brother to P312 and U106. Either way, I don't think there is any doubt that the distribution is primarily Franco-Italian.

There are also hotspots in Iberia (Tagus River Valley) and Ireland (Airghilla or Erne River Valley). Could this be a trace of a Proto Celtic migration to Ireland via Iberia.
We know that later clades such as P312 and L21 were found on the Atlantic Facade.
An alternative route is down the Rhone and Loire River Valleys to a cluster in Morbihan.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 14, 2012, 04:17:12 AM
There are also hotspots in Iberia (Tagus River Valley) and Ireland (Airghilla or Erne River Valley). Could this be a trace of a Proto Celtic migration to Ireland via Iberia.
We know that later clades such as P312 and L21 were found on the Atlantic Facade.
An alternative route is down the Rhone and Loire River Valleys to a cluster in Morbihan.

It is just what I have been saying so far, but to link this R-L51 to the agriculturalists from Italy of 7500 years ago (the first Rocca’s map had also a presence in the Valencian region) seems too early, for the language rather than for the Y-DNA, but I have also said that the migrations were more than one. Anyway we see clearly that one diffusion happened through Iberia, but another from South France or Westward the Alps, where we have found also G2a and E at Treilles etc., which could be the haplogroups of the first migration from Sardinia. Anyway it seems to me interesting also what Mark Jost says above, i.e. the presence of R-L51 in the highlands of Europe, what I noticed also for hg. J. Then this presence could be very ancient and linked to the coming out from the Younger Dryas Refugium. There are many problems to be resolved yet, but only the aDNA will be able to say the last word.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on August 14, 2012, 06:51:16 PM
That is interesting.  RR's L51* distribution map is interesting.  Problem is of course it doesnt tell anything about direction of spread and origin point.  I tended to think that it spread out from the west-Alpine area but maybe the eastern extremity (which I think was somewhere like SE Germany/Poland was actually nearer the origin and that there was a period when there was only L51* and it lay in the east.  I would however have thought that L51*'s ratio to L11 and derived can only have been high either somewhere in the east where L11 is low or in an early period when L11 hadnt come about. I can only think that the steppe Iranians were in some way the link between Iran and Mongolia.

I had created a new map based on the recent Niederstätter, et al. (2012) study:

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_v003.png (http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_v003.png)

We have to keep in mind that L51(xP312,U106) may hold a hidden mutation and be a little brother to P312 and U106. Either way, I don't think there is any doubt that the distribution is primarily Franco-Italian.

That map makes it even clearer that Other than the Irish oddity and tiny outlier patches in Portugal and way to the east sin Poland is indeed very Franco-Italian.    My feeling now is that we probably can ignore these extreme outlying patches and put them down to relict lineages that probably travelled later as a tiny element in some upstream movement.  So, yeah on reflection you are right that we should focus on the main concentration.  its not like there is a cline leading from an origin point to a pooling point except perhaps within the Franco-italian area.

It could be pre-beaker or it could be early beaker.  Its far more restricted than the whole bell  beaker complex. Interpreting it really depends on when and where one believes R1b joined the beaker network (or pre-beaker).  I am of course aware of the concept of a pre-beaker spread of R1b although I am on the fence about that.  I also think an alternative possibility is R1b only joined the beaker network once the network had reached west-central Europe (maybe somewhere like the Rhone/west Alpine area). You could argue that the L51* map could agree with that and accompanied other more upstream clades in the early movements of R1b through the beaker network.  It looks like, as you say, a strongly Franco-Italian hotspot.  The SE of France was a very early part of the beaker network while a little to the west and inland it was relatively later.    L51 does look a little like it was using the routes that the early beaker network used pre-2600BC (before the north facing part of Europe joined).  My feeling is that what we think of as classic beaker is the result of a group in the Rhone area who combined both western beaker ideas and eastern genes and then spread out from there.  

Regardless, L51* looks like it occurred perhaps in SE France or adjacent and there is little trace much to the east.  That kind of suggests to me that R1b first arrived in the west in an L23XL51 form and we therefore are never going to find a downstream east to west trail below that because it simply didnt exist.   It is interesting to me that there are an incredible number of beaker sites in SE France.  That strikes me a likely demographic expansion zone and a likely area where the whole L23*L51*L11*P312*U152/DF27 sequence maybe first happened and spread out from.    


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on August 14, 2012, 07:41:12 PM
That is interesting.  RR's L51* distribution map is interesting.  Problem is of course it doesnt tell anything about direction of spread and origin point.  I tended to think that it spread out from the west-Alpine area but maybe the eastern extremity (which I think was somewhere like SE Germany/Poland was actually nearer the origin and that there was a period when there was only L51* and it lay in the east.  I would however have thought that L51*'s ratio to L11 and derived can only have been high either somewhere in the east where L11 is low or in an early period when L11 hadnt come about. I can only think that the steppe Iranians were in some way the link between Iran and Mongolia.

I had created a new map based on the recent Niederstätter, et al. (2012) study:

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_v003.png (http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_v003.png)

We have to keep in mind that L51(xP312,U106) may hold a hidden mutation and be a little brother to P312 and U106. Either way, I don't think there is any doubt that the distribution is primarily Franco-Italian.

That map makes it even clearer that Other than the Irish oddity and tiny outlier patches in Portugal and way to the east sin Poland is indeed very Franco-Italian.    My feeling now is that we probably can ignore these extreme outlying patches and put them down to relict lineages that probably travelled later as a tiny element in some upstream movement.  So, yeah on reflection you are right that we should focus on the main concentration.  its not like there is a cline leading from an origin point to a pooling point except perhaps within the Franco-italian area.

It could be pre-beaker or it could be early beaker.  Its far more restricted than the whole bell  beaker complex. Interpreting it really depends on when and where one believes R1b joined the beaker network (or pre-beaker).  I am of course aware of the concept of a pre-beaker spread of R1b although I am on the fence about that.  I also think an alternative possibility is R1b only joined the beaker network once the network had reached west-central Europe (maybe somewhere like the Rhone/west Alpine area). You could argue that the L51* map could agree with that and accompanied other more upstream clades in the early movements of R1b through the beaker network.  It looks like, as you say, a strongly Franco-Italian hotspot.  The SE of France was a very early part of the beaker network while a little to the west and inland it was relatively later.    L51 does look a little like it was using the routes that the early beaker network used pre-2600BC (before the north facing part of Europe joined).  My feeling is that what we think of as classic beaker is the result of a group in the Rhone area who combined both western beaker ideas and eastern genes and then spread out from there.  

Regardless, L51* looks like it occurred perhaps in SE France or adjacent and there is little trace much to the east.  That kind of suggests to me that R1b first arrived in the west in an L23XL51 form and we therefore are never going to find a downstream east to west trail below that because it simply didnt exist.   It is interesting to me that there are an incredible number of beaker sites in SE France.  That strikes me a likely demographic expansion zone and a likely area where the whole L23*L51*L11*P312*U152/DF27 sequence maybe first happened and spread out from.

Please consider, that although I wouldn't say frequency should not be considered, high frequency is not a strong indicator of origin.

As Richard R pointed out, Most of the L51*  we see today may NOT be a diverse grouping of the remnants of the L51 MRCA, but may be just a little brother to U106 and P312 and L11*. In either case the intersection of the these is definitely something to look at.  How high is U106 in SE France. It's not is it? Perhaps we should be looking at the Italian-Austrian border area a bit harder.

I agree we have to keep looking at the whole lineage. What are the common areas between L51xL11 and L23xL51?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on August 14, 2012, 08:26:26 PM
Please consider, that although I wouldn't say frequency should not be considered, high frequency is not a strong indicator of origin.

As Richard R pointed out, Most of the L51*  we see today may NOT be a diverse grouping of the remnants of the L51 MRCA, but may be just a little brother to U106 and P312 and L11*. In either case the intersection of the these is definitely something to look at.  How high is U106 in SE France. It's not is it? Perhaps we should be looking at the Italian-Austrian border area a bit harder.

I agree we have to keep looking at the whole lineage. What are the common areas between L51xL11 and L23xL51?

The high-point for Western European L23xL51 is 27.3% in the upper Rhone Valley of Switzerland, which runs close to the Italian border. The sample size was small  (n=33), but it would be interesting to see a detailed test of that area.

The interesting thing I've noticed about U106 is that it has a modal value of DYS390=24 in Italy, Spain, and SW France instead of the traditional DYS390=23 you see further north.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 14, 2012, 09:16:24 PM
Of course if you put together your observations:

1) Perhaps we should be looking at the Italian-Austrian border area a bit harder (Mikewww)
2) What are the common areas between L51xL11 and L23xL51? (Mikewww)
3) The high-point for Western European L23xL51 is 27.3% in the upper Rhone Valley of Switzerland, which runs close to the Italian border (Rocca)
4) The interesting thing I've noticed about U106 is that it has a modal value of DYS390=24 in Italy, Spain, and SW France instead of the traditional DYS390=23 you see further north (Rocca)

you are speaking of my Italian Refugium.




Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on August 14, 2012, 09:44:17 PM
Of course if you put together your observations:

1) Perhaps we should be looking at the Italian-Austrian border area a bit harder (Mikewww)
2) What are the common areas between L51xL11 and L23xL51? (Mikewww)
3) The high-point for Western European L23xL51 is 27.3% in the upper Rhone Valley of Switzerland, which runs close to the Italian border (Rocca)
4) The interesting thing I've noticed about U106 is that it has a modal value of DYS390=24 in Italy, Spain, and SW France instead of the traditional DYS390=23 you see further north (Rocca)

you are speaking of my Italian Refugium.

I agree with you that Italy is a key.

I tend to segment Cisalpine Gaul or what we might consider North Italy from the Italian Peninsula. Italy is a long country north to south with parts in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea and parts running into the Alps.

Do you consider North Italy to be point of expansion or do you consider South Peninsular Italy as well?

By refugium, are you talking about the timeframe of the Last Glacial Maxim or something else?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jarman on August 14, 2012, 09:56:29 PM
The interesting thing I've noticed about U106 is that it has a modal value of DYS390=24 in Italy, Spain, and SW France instead of the traditional DYS390=23 you see further north.

I believe the DYS390=24 is also modal east of the Elbe. It sort of looks like DYS390=23 is tied to L48.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jarman on August 14, 2012, 10:23:44 PM
That map makes it even clearer that Other than the Irish oddity and tiny outlier patches in Portugal and way to the east sin Poland is indeed very Franco-Italian.    My feeling now is that we probably can ignore these extreme outlying patches and put them down to relict lineages that probably travelled later as a tiny element in some upstream movement.  

What about the big gap in the center of Italy? I'm reminded L23 is also found only in the south of Italy. Also interesting is that L51 found in Sicily is more in the west than east. Instead of outliers, is this and the Portuguese area evidence of sea migration?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on August 14, 2012, 11:01:18 PM


Very nice work. I noticed that the heavier concentrations are sure following some of the major landforms of Europe.

MJost

Looking at the French Hotspot the larges level of L53xL11 appears to be Orleans area  southwards covering most of the major headwaters in central and southestern France.

Interesting the cline to the Rhone river around Lyons. Lyon was founded on the Fourvière hill on the site of a Gaulish hill-fort settlement called Lugdunon as a Roman colony in 43 BC and must have been a strong economic area prior to Roman building this city and roads from there into Gaul.

MJost
MJost


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on August 14, 2012, 11:50:09 PM
The interesting thing I've noticed about U106 is that it has a modal value of DYS390=24 in Italy, Spain, and SW France instead of the traditional DYS390=23 you see further north.

I believe the DYS390=24 is also modal east of the Elbe. It sort of looks like DYS390=23 is tied to L48.

It might be beneficial to separate U106 out by subclade so we see what is driving the 390 values.

Z156, which includes L1/null439 is a clear 390=24 modal.

Z18 is also a clear 390=24.

The two brothers under Z301, L48 and U198, are what is driving the 390=23 modal within U106.

I don't know the thoughts on Z156 and Z18... if folks think they come from South-Central Europe versus East or North-Central.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on August 15, 2012, 12:25:25 AM
The interesting thing I've noticed about U106 is that it has a modal value of DYS390=24 in Italy, Spain, and SW France instead of the traditional DYS390=23 you see further north.

I believe the DYS390=24 is also modal east of the Elbe. It sort of looks like DYS390=23 is tied to L48.

It might be beneficial to separate U106 out by subclade so we see what is driving the 390 values.

Z156, which includes L1/null439 is a clear 390=24 modal.

Z18 is also a clear 390=24.

The two brothers under Z301, L48 and U198, are what is driving the 390=23 modal within U106.

I don't know the thoughts on Z156 and Z18... if folks think they come from South-Central Europe versus East or North-Central.

Diversity across all the markers is probably a better measure. I looked at U106 67 STR ht's and divided the non-NW ht's into two camps: East of Germany (all the way to Russia) and South of Germany (Alpine area, Italian and Balkan Peninsulas).

Just using the markers that Heinila thinks have high confidence linear durations of 7000 ybp or more, here are the relative variances.

U106 East of Ger____:  Var=0.92 [Linear 36]  (N=65)
   
U106 South of Ger___:  Var=0.80 [Linear 36]  (N=36)   

It's hard to get U106 to intersect well with P312, at least in their most diverse regions.

EDIT: Since I'm in the U106 spreadsheet I might as well do the the rest.

U106 Isles__________:  Var=0.81 [Linear 36]  (N=770)

U106 Fra/Ger/Benelux:  Var=0.80 [Linear 36]  (N=193)   

U106 Nordic_________:  Var=0.73 [Linear 36]  (N=59)

U106 Iberia_________:  Var=0.65 [Linear 36]  (N=11)   


I hesitate to include Iberia because the sample size is so small but there it is.

I keep looking for something different, but I never get high diversity for U106 in Scandinavia. That's why I don't think they met up with I1 until Jastorf. By that time there may have been some P312 types and/or R1a1 accompanying the I1 people.... that is just wondering out loud.    Was there any movement of people from the east of Poland pushing people into the Jastorf at its inception?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 15, 2012, 02:42:23 AM
I agree with you that Italy is a key.
I tend to segment Cisalpine Gaul or what we might consider North Italy from the Italian Peninsula. Italy is a long country north to south with parts in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea and parts running into the Alps.
Do you consider North Italy to be point of expansion or do you consider South Peninsular Italy as well?
By refugium, are you talking about the timeframe of the Last Glacial Maxim or something else?

Of course the matter is complex and to answer your questions I should publish all my letters and all the discussions they involved.
At the beginning, for me during 2007, the problem was that Italy wasn’t considered amongst the European Refugia. You know that the Refugia were 3: the Franco-Cantabrian, the Balkan and the Ukrainian ones. Then I posed the Italian Refugium amongst the others and this stuff mixed with the problem of the origin of Ashkenazi Jews, I considered above all European (Italy, Rhine Valley, but I didn’t exclude Khazars) and this caused me many problems. At the end of 2007 I was banned from Rootsweb where I wrote above all during that year. During 2008 I wrote above all on Dna-Forums. My theory of the Italian Refugium presupposed that also the inhabitants of the Isles came from Italy. We had then many signs, not only many haplogroups and haplotypes but also the data of the Amsbury Archer, who drank Alpine water etc. At the end of that year an autosomal test of my deCODEme (and after of my 23addMe) found a percentage of about 20% of Ashkenazi SNPs in me. I said that this demonstrated that Ashkenazi Jews came from Italy and not the other way around. Then I spoke of “Rhaetian-Etruskan fatherland”, then to answer your question I did mean that the Refugium was in Central-North Italy (first of all that of the Youger Dryas and not of the LGM) and it started from the Alpine Region.
During these last months of that year I was invited by a moderator of that Forums (who writes here and may confirm what I am saying) to moderate a thread about hg. R, above all R-L23 (mine), but another moderator, by using a pretext, banned me at the end of that year.
My theory was clear at that point, and about the situation of Italy I have always said that I considered Italy as part of the Refugium, because we found all the haplogroups overall in the country, only in different percentages and this was due to the immigration from the Balkans with the first agriculturalists which concerned more South Italy than Central-North one. Then no problem with R-L51 in Central-Western Sicily, because also this zone had probably a less introgression and is the land of the Italian peoples (Siculi, Sicani, Elymians). You have thought to a colonization by sea from South, I think to a colonization of Italian peoples from Central-North Italy.
During 2009 I wrote above all on “Dienekes’ Anthropolgy blog” and other minor ones and after here and I am continuing so far. What I have written here may easily be read.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on August 15, 2012, 04:56:46 PM
Movements of L51 and its subclades are interesting. Comparing the colonization of eastern United states westwards, I want to overlay Europe over the United states to compare size and look at how many generations and years did it take to populate the eastern half of the united states.

Using this webpage, move the red dot to position Texas mostly covering Spain/Portugal for reference.
http://goeurope.about.com/od/europeanmaps/l/bl-country-size-comparison-map.htm

Early Colonization of North America and its natural growth in United States is explained in Wiki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_United_States

"Nearly all colonies and, later, states in the United States were settled by migration from another colony or state, as foreign immigration usually only played a minor role after the first initial settlements were started. Many new immigrants did end up on the frontiers as that was where the land was usually the cheapest"
 
"All the colonies, after they were started, grew mostly by natural growth, with foreign born populations rarely exceeding 10% in isolated instances. The last significant colonies to be settled mainly by immigrants were Pennsylvania in the early 18th century and Georgia and the Borderlands in the late 18th century, as migration (not immigration) continued to provide nearly all the settlers for each new colony or state. This pattern would continue throughout U.S. history. "

The chart below this paragraph show the growth over all most 200 years of various states. Comparing the US, it seems that Europe would have been populated by the L11 Immigrants moved across Europe. Here is the populations from the beginning of 1620's.

Year   1780   1760   1740   1720   1700   1680   1660   1640   1620
                        
Tot Pop.   2,780,400    1,593,600  905,600  466,200  250,900  151,500  75,100   26,600   500


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Discusses the estimated population of East and western Europe estimated that more than 50–60 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire (AD 300–400).

But this chart shows that more than double the above estimate for the growth from 5000 BC to 0 AD. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_estimates

I will assume that the L11 guys and their families had the same migration colonization methods as the early US colonists did expanding into new areas of Western Europe.

MJost





Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on August 16, 2012, 11:29:09 AM
Movements of L51 and its subclades are interesting. Comparing the colonization of eastern United states westwards, I want to overlay Europe over the United states to compare size and look at how many generations and years did it take to populate the eastern half of the united states.

Using this webpage, move the red dot to position Texas mostly covering Spain/Portugal for reference.
http://goeurope.about.com/od/europeanmaps/l/bl-country-size-comparison-map.htm

Early Colonization of North America and its natural growth in United States is explained in Wiki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_United_States

"Nearly all colonies and, later, states in the United States were settled by migration from another colony or state, as foreign immigration usually only played a minor role after the first initial settlements were started. Many new immigrants did end up on the frontiers as that was where the land was usually the cheapest"
 
"All the colonies, after they were started, grew mostly by natural growth, with foreign born populations rarely exceeding 10% in isolated instances. The last significant colonies to be settled mainly by immigrants were Pennsylvania in the early 18th century and Georgia and the Borderlands in the late 18th century, as migration (not immigration) continued to provide nearly all the settlers for each new colony or state. This pattern would continue throughout U.S. history. "

The chart below this paragraph show the growth over all most 200 years of various states. Comparing the US, it seems that Europe would have been populated by the L11 Immigrants moved across Europe. Here is the populations from the beginning of 1620's.

Year   1780   1760   1740   1720   1700   1680   1660   1640   1620
                        
Tot Pop.   2,780,400    1,593,600  905,600  466,200  250,900  151,500  75,100   26,600   500


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Discusses the estimated population of East and western Europe estimated that more than 50–60 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire (AD 300–400).

But this chart shows that more than double the above estimate for the growth from 5000 BC to 0 AD. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_estimates

I will assume that the L11 guys and their families had the same migration colonization methods as the early US colonists did expanding into new areas of Western Europe.

Mark, I'm open to this idea, but I'm not convinced as to the extent of the genetic input in opening frontiers from US migration versus immigration.

My own US genealogy has my two immediate surname lineages coming to Nebraska in the mid 19th century primarily related to opening of lands from the Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854 which was instigated as part of the build up to the American Civil War. One lineage was Irish that left Ireland due to the potatoe famine and the other was Czech that left Austria/Bohemia due to political strife and the Prague Rebellion of 1850.

In both cases, the lineages tarried in places like Boston and Chicago/Wisconsin before ending up a generation or two later in Nebraska. As far as the settling of Nebraska many were probably not born in foreign countries, but their grandfathers were.

On the other hand I have lineages that I have been in US territories since the Revolutionary War. One were Scots-Irish people who moved into Carolinas territory into what would become Tennessee. Many of them were born in places like Maryland but similarly to my other examples, the grandparents were from Northern Ireland and had suffered through distress in the Ulster Plantation period.




Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: rms2 on August 16, 2012, 12:16:28 PM
Have you read Albion's Seed (http://www.amazon.com/Albions-Seed-British-Folkways-Cultural/dp/0195069056) by David Hackett Fischer? Jdean recommended it to me. I bought it for my Kindle and am reading it now. It's a fascinating book about the early British settlements in North America, focusing on the differences in their various source populations.

It doesn't deal with genetics, but it's not hard to make inferences in that direction. For example, the author says that the main source of the early Puritan population of New England was eastern England, which he refers to collectively using the historical sense of the term East Anglia. In my own family, one of my 2nd great grandmothers was of New England Puritan stock, with the surname Washburn, and related to many of the other early Puritan families of Massachusetts. I know from communication with some of my confirmed Washburn relatives that her father belonged to y haplogroup I-M253, which is fairly common in eastern England.

Virginia, on the other hand, was settled for the most part by Cavaliers and servants from southern and western England.

Anyway, thus far it's a really engaging book, but maybe you've already read it. It's been around since 1989.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mark Jost on August 16, 2012, 06:33:00 PM
Movements of L51 and its subclades are interesting. Comparing the colonization of eastern United states westwards, I want to overlay Europe over the United states to compare size and look at how many generations and years did it take to populate the eastern half of the united states.

Using this webpage, move the red dot to position Texas mostly covering Spain/Portugal for reference.
http://goeurope.about.com/od/europeanmaps/l/bl-country-size-comparison-map.htm

Early Colonization of North America and its natural growth in United States is explained in Wiki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_the_United_States

"Nearly all colonies and, later, states in the United States were settled by migration from another colony or state, as foreign immigration usually only played a minor role after the first initial settlements were started. Many new immigrants did end up on the frontiers as that was where the land was usually the cheapest"
 
"All the colonies, after they were started, grew mostly by natural growth, with foreign born populations rarely exceeding 10% in isolated instances. The last significant colonies to be settled mainly by immigrants were Pennsylvania in the early 18th century and Georgia and the Borderlands in the late 18th century, as migration (not immigration) continued to provide nearly all the settlers for each new colony or state. This pattern would continue throughout U.S. history. "

The chart below this paragraph show the growth over all most 200 years of various states. Comparing the US, it seems that Europe would have been populated by the L11 Immigrants moved across Europe. Here is the populations from the beginning of 1620's.

Year   1780   1760   1740   1720   1700   1680   1660   1640   1620
                        
Tot Pop.   2,780,400    1,593,600  905,600  466,200  250,900  151,500  75,100   26,600   500


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Discusses the estimated population of East and western Europe estimated that more than 50–60 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire (AD 300–400).

But this chart shows that more than double the above estimate for the growth from 5000 BC to 0 AD. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_estimates

I will assume that the L11 guys and their families had the same migration colonization methods as the early US colonists did expanding into new areas of Western Europe.

Mark, I'm open to this idea, but I'm not convinced as to the extent of the genetic input in opening frontiers from US migration versus immigration.

My own US genealogy has my two immediate surname lineages coming to Nebraska in the mid 19th century primarily related to opening of lands from the Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854 which was instigated as part of the build up to the American Civil War. One lineage was Irish that left Ireland due to the potatoe famine and the other was Czech that left Austria/Bohemia due to political strife and the Prague Rebellion of 1850.

In both cases, the lineages tarried in places like Boston and Chicago/Wisconsin before ending up a generation or two later in Nebraska. As far as the settling of Nebraska many were probably not born in foreign countries, but their grandfather's were.

On the other hand I have lineages that I have been in US territories since the Revolutionary War. One were Scots-Irish people who moved into Carolinas territory into what would become Tennessee. Many of them were born in places like Maryland but similarly to my other examples, the grandparents were from Northern Ireland and had suffered through distress in the Ulster Plantation period.


All good statements to consider. Migration seems to be key as an outsider would be likely kicked to the frontiers if they were looking for lands to farm.

Here in the last three paragraphs discusses Migration as a modal.
http://dro.dur.ac.uk/3902/1/3902.pdf?DDD5+dan0rb+dan0rab+dan0rb+dul4ks

MJost


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 27, 2012, 03:56:49 AM
Reading again the paper of Irene Pichler et al. about the Hutterites, EJHG, 2010, 18, 463-470, I am seeing that amongst the 227 South Tyrolean samples tested (“Altoatesini” we’d say in Italian of ancient Rhaetian origin), there are 23 hg. P (xR1a), i.e. R1b1a2a1a with DYS426=11 (i.e.13, because Pichler is under of 2), i.e. 23 R-L51 out of 227: 10,13%. Probably Richard Rocca should update his map.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jarman on August 27, 2012, 08:20:24 AM
Reading again the paper of Irene Pichler et al. about the Hutterites, EJHG, 2010, 18, 463-470, I am seeing that amongst the 227 South Tyrolean samples tested (“Altoatesini” we’d say in Italian of ancient Rhaetian origin), there are 23 hg. P (xR1a), i.e. R1b1a2a1a with DYS426=11 (i.e.13, because Pichler is under of 2), i.e. 23 R-L51 out of 227: 10,13%. Probably Richard Rocca should update his map.

The Rocca map already shows an L51 presence in that area; how do you think these additional L51s will alter the map and/or its interpretation?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 27, 2012, 09:10:46 AM
The Rocca map already shows an L51 presence in that area; how do you think these additional L51s will alter the map and/or its interpretation?
RRocca's map gives for that zone a percentage not higher than 3%. We are higher for a factor of 3.5 and almost the double of the highest percentage found in France. Seen that numbers are worth, it doesn't seem to me a few.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on August 27, 2012, 10:11:05 AM
Reading again the paper of Irene Pichler et al. about the Hutterites, EJHG, 2010, 18, 463-470, I am seeing that amongst the 227 South Tyrolean samples tested (“Altoatesini” we’d say in Italian of ancient Rhaetian origin), there are 23 hg. P (xR1a), i.e. R1b1a2a1a with DYS426=11 (i.e.13, because Pichler is under of 2), i.e. 23 R-L51 out of 227: 10,13%. Probably Richard Rocca should update his map.

How certain is the identification of L51* on the basis of that one STR?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jdean on August 27, 2012, 10:29:32 AM
Reading again the paper of Irene Pichler et al. about the Hutterites, EJHG, 2010, 18, 463-470, I am seeing that amongst the 227 South Tyrolean samples tested (“Altoatesini” we’d say in Italian of ancient Rhaetian origin), there are 23 hg. P (xR1a), i.e. R1b1a2a1a with DYS426=11 (i.e.13, because Pichler is under of 2), i.e. 23 R-L51 out of 227: 10,13%. Probably Richard Rocca should update his map.

How certain is the identification of L51* on the basis of that one STR?

Bearing in mind that there are 14 people in the R-L21 project with this value I'd say not very :)


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 27, 2012, 11:03:02 AM
Bearing in mind that there are 14 people in the R-L21 project with this value I'd say not very :)
How is the percentage of DYS426=13 in the R-L21? Probably 0,0something. Here they are 10,13% of the people tested. When I suggested to an Italian with DYS426=13 to test L51, he did, and now he is amongst the R-L51 of the "ht 35 FTDNA Project". Many (Italian) people from SMGF I put on ySearch...


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on August 27, 2012, 01:54:51 PM
Bearing in mind that there are 14 people in the R-L21 project with this value I'd say not very :)
How is the percentage of DYS426=13 in the R-L21? Probably 0,0something. Here they are 10,13% of the people tested. When I suggested to an Italian with DYS426=13 to test L51, he did, and now he is amongst the R-L51 of the "ht 35 FTDNA Project". Many (Italian) people from SMGF I put on ySearch...

Well what about U152?  Does that STR value occur among U152 also (which a very common clade in Italy).


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 27, 2012, 02:51:36 PM
Well what about U152?  Does that STR value occur among U152 also (which a very common clade in Italy).

Ask Richard Rocca how many people are in the U152 FTDNA Project. These are the DYS426=13 and the last 3 belong to the same Jewish cluster R-L4:

N9622 Johannes Grauel, b. 1625, Schluctern, Hessen, Germ Germany R1b1a2a1a1b3c
13 22 14 11 11-12 13 12 11 13 14 30 17 9-10 11 11 25 15 17 30 15-15-16-17 11 11 18-23 16 15 20 18 37-37 13 12 11 9 15-16 8 11 10 8 10 10 12 23-23 16 10 12 12 18 8 13 23 20 14 12 11 13 11 11 12 12
 
207384 Miguel Carlos de Godoy, Jerez, Zacatecas, b. 1692 Mexico R1b1a2a1a1b3
13 24 14 11 12-14 13 12 11 13 13 29 16 9-10 11 11 25 15 19 28 15-17-17-17 11 11 23-23 15 15 17 17 36-38 12 12                                                                                                                      
34105 Jean Jaque Maillard, 1720? Vaud, Switzerland Switzerland R1b1a2a1a1b3
13 24 14 11 12-13 13 12 11 13 13 30 19 9-10 11 11 25 15 19 28 15-16-16-17 11 10 19-23 15 14 18 17 36-38 12 13                                                                                  

177208   Unknown Origin R1b1a2a1a1b3d
13 24 14 11 14-14 13 12 11 13 14 29 16 9-10 11 12 25 15 19 28 15-17-17-17 12 12 19-23 15 14 17 20 36-36 14 12 11 9 15-16 8 10 11 8 10 11 12 23-24 16 10 12 12 14 9 13 22 20 12 12 11 13 11 11 14 12                                                                                        

155510 Hirsch Hermelin, b.c.1875 Poland R1b1a2a1a1b3d
13 24 14 11 14-14 13 12 11 13 15 29 17 9-10 11 12 25 15 19 28 15-17-17-17 11 12 19-23 15 14 18 19 36-36 14 12

B1351 Samuel b' Ascher Yachmiel (Louis) Rottenberg/burg Austria R1b1a2a1a1b3d
13 25 14 11 14-14 13 12 11 13 14 29 17 9-10 11 12 26 15 19 28 15-17-17-17 12 12 19-23 15 14 18 20 36-36 14 12                                   13     12                                                   11 30 12 13 24 13 10                       23           13


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on August 27, 2012, 06:46:07 PM
Bearing in mind that there are 14 people in the R-L21 project with this value I'd say not very :)
How is the percentage of DYS426=13 in the R-L21? Probably 0,0something. Here they are 10,13% of the people tested. When I suggested to an Italian with DYS426=13 to test L51, he did, and now he is amongst the R-L51 of the "ht 35 FTDNA Project". Many (Italian) people from SMGF I put on ySearch...

The percentage of 426>=13 among L21 people is very low, like 1.4%, but testing is so high among L21 you'll still run into them. There are 93 426=13 and even two 426=14 in FTDNA projects, that I can find.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 30, 2012, 05:36:23 AM
Someone shed some doubt about my R-L51 found in the Pichler et al.’s paper, based only upon DYS426=13, but in these years I have found some haplotypes of Italians tested by SMGF (Italians of Italy are low tested but fortunately amongst the 100,000,000 living all around the world we may find someone), and many come just from the North-East Italy:

ADR66, Henrique (actually Rech), Carpeneda, Folgaria, Trento, Italy
65X69, Bez Batti, Urussaga, Santa Catarina, Brazil (from Ialy)
B3XE5, Marchese Mera, Chile (Marchese is a Ligurian surname)
PH67W, De Bona, Farroupilha, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil (from Italy)
TDM4D, Martignago, Treviso, Italy
4GW9W, Baldacci, Genova, Italy

They have all DYS426=13, DYS461=11, and often DYS464d=18. They are out of any doubt R-L51.

PS. Amongst these there is also

JC7VE, Finney, Londonderry, Ireland, to demonstrate the presence of R-L51 found by Richard Rocca between Ireland and Ulster.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on August 30, 2012, 10:14:22 PM
Someone shed some doubt about my R-L51 found in the Pichler et al.’s paper, based only upon DYS426=13, but in these years I have found some haplotypes of Italians tested by SMGF (Italians of Italy are low tested but fortunately amongst the 100,000,000 living all around the world we may find someone), and many come just from the North-East Italy:

ADR66, Henrique (actually Rech), Carpeneda, Folgaria, Trento, Italy
65X69, Bez Batti, Urussaga, Santa Catarina, Brazil (from Ialy)
B3XE5, Marchese Mera, Chile (Marchese is a Ligurian surname)
PH67W, De Bona, Farroupilha, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil (from Italy)
TDM4D, Martignago, Treviso, Italy
4GW9W, Baldacci, Genova, Italy

They have all DYS426=13, DYS461=11, and often DYS464d=18. They are out of any doubt R-L51.

PS. Amongst these there is also

JC7VE, Finney, Londonderry, Ireland, to demonstrate the presence of R-L51 found by Richard Rocca between Ireland and Ulster.

Can you recruit them for deeper SNP testing? That would truly be of value. DYS464 is fairly fast moving. I wouldn't trust DYS464 values to be stable for 3000-4000 years or more if that is how deep the branching is that you are talking about.

There maybe an R1b-L51* subclade that is DYS426=13, DYS461=11, and often DYS464d=18. If so that is not necessarily ancient. It may be, and probably is, that most of the R1b-L51+ L11- branches have died off and a 426=13 DYS461=11 464d=18 subclade is just a single thin, and possibly fairly young branch left over.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 30, 2012, 11:55:57 PM
Can you recruit them for deeper SNP testing? That would truly be of value. DYS464 is fairly fast moving. I wouldn't trust DYS464 values to be stable for 3000-4000 years or more if that is how deep the branching is that you are talking about.

There maybe an R1b-L51* subclade that is DYS426=13, DYS461=11, and often DYS464d=18. If so that is not necessarily ancient. It may be, and probably is, that most of the R1b-L51+ L11- branches have died off and a 426=13 DYS461=11 464d=18 subclade is just a single thin, and possibly fairly young branch left over.
It is just what we have said many times. Anyhow amongst these Italians only Henrique (Rech), Marchese Mera, Martignago have DYS464d=18. Bez Batti, De Bona have 17, and Baldacci has 16. This demonstrates that there have been some mutations, and we should look also at the other DYS464 values. But DYS426=13 and DYS461=11 may last also from many thousands of years.
I have found on SMGF 57 people with this cluster (some come from the same familial stock). 8 are Italians, but there is people from all Europe, from the places where R-L51 is more diffused, and also 4 from Mongolia, we should see at which haplogroup belong. Unfortunately I exhausted my queries, but one Mexican I had already put on ySearch: Carrasco (697EH), who is a witness of the Iberian R-L51, and he has DYS464=16-17-18, with one lost, and another Mexican, unfortunately incompletely tested, matches him.

PS. Of course the SMGF people cannot be recruited for other testes, because they are anonymous, except the ancestors born more than a century ago..



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 31, 2012, 01:23:12 AM
Perhaps it is interesting to investigate those Poles found by Richard Rocca having a decent percentage of R-L51.
We have Markowicz (ySearch: F5FN2). Who are the closest to him on SMGF?
Rech (Enrique): ySearch ADR66
Martignago: ySearch TMD4D

And the third is another Brazilian of Italian descent not found so far because with DY455=10 (and 11 was one of the obliged values of the cluster)

Del Re: ySearch NBABJ
And his YCAII=19-22 may explain the 19-21 of Markowicz.

Which the conclusions?
I let them to Mikewww.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 31, 2012, 03:30:44 AM
The closest to Italians (Henrique/Rech, Bez Batti, De Bona) to Spain is the Mexican Huerta (ySearch: 75TUD) from Spain. The Spaniard closest to Huerta is Fernandez (ySearch: HU6TM), who, with his DYS464=15-16-18, is the closest to the other Mexicans like Carrasco Duarte (ySearch: 697EH) and demonstrates that the lost of one peak happened in Spain.
The other line of expansion from Italy is that to France and the Isles.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 31, 2012, 04:09:02 AM
The French Lemonnier, already tested by GeneTree, but put on ySearch (SYC7N) without converting the values, is now ySearch 7BUPA. He is the closest to the Spaniard Fernandez (HU6TM) and demonstrates that the expansion of R-L51 happened from Iberia to France till the Isles and a little also to Scandinavia, mixing with the other expansion from Italy to Switzerland and Central Europe.
My hypothesis that this is due to the expansion of Ceramica Impressa from Italy by sea to Iberia and by land from South France is more alive than ever.



Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Heber on August 31, 2012, 07:43:01 AM
We now have a good idea about the origin and expansion of L51 thanks to Richard Rocca's map. Do we have an equivalent one for L11. Richard are you working on one?


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jarman on August 31, 2012, 08:07:56 AM
We now have a good idea about the origin and expansion of L51 . . .

Huh?  We do?????


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Richard Rocca on August 31, 2012, 08:14:51 AM
We now have a good idea about the origin and expansion of L51 thanks to Richard Rocca's map. Do we have an equivalent one for L11. Richard are you working on one?

Myres created an L11 frequency map. Unfortunately L11's distribution is too fragmented into small areas. The small areas are too distant from one another to really derive at anything.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Jarman on August 31, 2012, 08:20:14 AM
We now have a good idea about the origin and expansion of L51 thanks to Richard Rocca's map. Do we have an equivalent one for L11. Richard are you working on one?

The Myers L11 map:
http://www.4shared.com/photo/jqJQfXYk/R-L23_and_R-L11_Frequency_Maps.html

A new Rocca map could be helpful.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on August 31, 2012, 03:03:47 PM
Someone shed some doubt about my R-L51 found in the Pichler et al.’s paper, based only upon DYS426=13, but in these years I have found some haplotypes of Italians tested by SMGF (Italians of Italy are low tested but fortunately amongst the 100,000,000 living all around the world we may find someone), and many come just from the North-East Italy:

ADR66, Henrique (actually Rech), Carpeneda, Folgaria, Trento, Italy
65X69, Bez Batti, Urussaga, Santa Catarina, Brazil (from Ialy)
B3XE5, Marchese Mera, Chile (Marchese is a Ligurian surname)
PH67W, De Bona, Farroupilha, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil (from Italy)
TDM4D, Martignago, Treviso, Italy
4GW9W, Baldacci, Genova, Italy

They have all DYS426=13, DYS461=11, and often DYS464d=18. They are out of any doubt R-L51.

PS. Amongst these there is also

JC7VE, Finney, Londonderry, Ireland, to demonstrate the presence of R-L51 found by Richard Rocca between Ireland and Ulster.


lol.  That is not going to go down well with some folks


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: inver2b1 on August 31, 2012, 03:25:58 PM
Jim McGuiness would be confused to say the least.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 31, 2012, 04:02:13 PM
lol.  That is not going to go down to well with some folks

Which is the problem? This is the map

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png

the highest frequency is between Ireland and Ulster!
I didn't speak of Londonderry.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on August 31, 2012, 04:19:56 PM
lol.  That is not going to go down to well with some folks

Which is the problem? This is the map

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png

the highest frequency is between Ireland and Ulster!
I didn't speak of Londonderry.


No problem and to be honest you just cant win when it comes to the sensitivities but Ulster is the northern part of Ireland i.e. a subdivision of it.  Probably the best way to describe it is just the 'Ulster border' (with Leinster and Connaught).  Technically it is the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.  To be honest its impossible to describe without someone not liking it as there are always people out there who like getting offended.  I personally dont care at all.  its just words.   


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 31, 2012, 04:49:52 PM
Alan, I live so far. I did know of course of the problems there, but for me Ulster=Northern Ireland and Ireland= Republic of Ireland. You understand that there wasn't anything else in my words.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: inver2b1 on August 31, 2012, 04:50:49 PM
lol.  That is not going to go down to well with some folks

Which is the problem? This is the map

http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png

the highest frequency is between Ireland and Ulster!
I didn't speak of Londonderry.


Two thirds of Ulster os within the Morthern Ireland border. Counties Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan are outside it.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Maliclavelli on August 31, 2012, 05:01:46 PM
Two thirds of Ulster os within the Northern Ireland border. Counties Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan are outside it.
I apologize, but I believed that Ulster were the same of Northern Ireland, and I am also a teacher of Geography beyond History Italian and Latin. I thank you for the specification.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: alan trowel hands. on August 31, 2012, 05:11:37 PM
Two thirds of Ulster os within the Northern Ireland border. Counties Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan are outside it.
I apologize, but I believed that Ulster were the same of Northern Ireland, and I am also a teacher of Geography beyond History Italian and Latin. I thank you for the specification.

No problem.  I wasnt really being serious.  Some people are sensitive about these things but I am not one of them.  It is impossible to keep everyone happy on these things as 'one man's meat is another mans poison'


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: inver2b1 on August 31, 2012, 05:16:11 PM
Two thirds of Ulster os within the Northern Ireland border. Counties Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan are outside it.
I apologize, but I believed that Ulster were the same of Northern Ireland, and I am also a teacher of Geography beyond History Italian and Latin. I thank you for the specification.

It can get confusing ad the terms Northern Ireland Ulster are used meaning the same thing regularly.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Mike Walsh on August 31, 2012, 05:57:38 PM
Just to be clear, as I define geographies for the spreadsheet data I maintain I use this:

Ulster - the old province of Ulster.  Same goes for the provinces like Leinster, Connacht and Munster.

Ireland - the island of Ireland. I'm not using the political boundaries.

In England I use the standard regions such as North West, West Midlands, East Midlands, Yorshire and Humber, East, South East, South West, North East.

In Scotland I have troubles because I wanted reflect the old Strathclyde and lowlands/central area as one so my Scottish definitions are a bit strange - West & Central, South, North and East.


Title: Re: R1b-L51 from the West
Post by: Luan on February 26, 2013, 08:39:42 AM
So is there anything about these M269* folks.  I heard it suggested that some were Jewish.  That would complicate things. 

Some of the R1b-M269(xL23) folks from the ht35 project are said to be Jews. However, the data I provided was from the Myres et al(2010) study. AFAIK Jewish could be a possibility for Romania, although I doubt all 9 people that have R1b-M269(xL23) would be Jews. Given that the samples were collected from Romania, the probability is that those were likely ethnic Romanians. This is what I found about the Jewish population in Romania nowadays:


Quote
The situation for the Jews of Romania later improved, but the community has shrunk, mainly through aliyah - Today only about 6000 Jews remain in Romania, primarily in urban areas.[69]

source (http://www.insse.ro/cms/files/RPL2002INS/vol4/tabele/t1.pdf)

Serbia, Macedonia, Kosovo are very likely ethnic Serbians, Macedonians, and Albanians respectively.

Something interesting is that R1b-M269(xL23) peaks in Kosovo (i.e. It is 9/114 or 7.89%), which is inhabited by Albanians who speak Gheg Albanian.

Here is the interesting part about Albanian:

Quote
The Albanian language is a distinct Indo-European language that does not belong to any other existing branch; the other extant Indo-European isolate is Armenian.

It would be awesome to get some R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes from Kosovo, or Albania, unfortunately Myres et al(2010) did not publish them. Any Haplotype data from Albanians would be very welcomed.


There is a new Albanian Y DNA project on FTDNA who so far have L23.
 
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/Abanian_DNA_Poject,Abanian_DNA_Poject/default.aspx?section=yresults