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The ultimate purpose of this page is to discuss our DNA results.

  • An example of what this page will look like over time is the Hodges DNA Project Discussion Page. 
  • Feel free to discuss this project on the Shenton FamilyForum (link in light gray menu)
  • Click on Order Test (link in light gray menu) to place an order for a DNA test at Family Tree DNA

 

Results of the two initial tests of the Shenton surname project - S-1 and S-2 - are a surprise and a disappointment, as the two participants had been assuming a common ancestor (MRCA) had been identified at six generations back. The results, however, show that to obtain at least a 50% probability, the MRCA - based solely on the tests - must be at least 12 generations back.

In comparing 37 markers, the probability that S-1 and S-2 shared a common ancestor within the last...
2 generations
is
0.34%
4 generations
is
3.57%
6 generations
is
12.16%
8 generations
is
25.43%
10 generations
is
40.79%
12 generations
is
55.66%
14 generations
is
66.4%
16 generations
is
78.4%
18 generations
is
85.74%
20 generations
is
90.87%
22 generations
is
94.3%
24 generations
is
96.51%

Additionally, however, both S-1 and S-2 have fairly solid genealogies back at least 5 generations. Incorporating that information into the calculations appears to push the MRCA (with 50% probability) back to about the 13th generation.

Knowing that S-1 and S-2 could not have had a common ancestor in the last 5 generations, their
37 marker comparison shows that the probability that S-1 and S-2 shared a common ancestor
within the last ...
5-7 generations
is
8.9%
9 generations
is
22.66%
11 generations
is
38.6%
13 generations
is
54.02%
15 generations
is
67.23%
17 generations
is
77.6%
19 generations
is
85.22%
21 generations
is
90.53%
23 generations
is
94.08%
25 generations
is
96.38%
27 generations
is
97.83%
29 generations
is
98.72%

The results of S-3 seem to indicate an even greater distance from either S-1 or S-2, as shown below. So it appears that S-1 and S-2 are a logical "group" (although not necessarily a Lineage), whereas S-3 represents a second Group. More participants are definitely needed.



 

In comparing 37 markers, the probability that S-1 and S-3 shared a common ancestor within the last...
4 generations
is
0.00%
8 generations
is
0.03%
12 generations
is
0.56%
16 generations
is
3.44%
20 generations
is
11.13%
24 generations
is
24.28%

 

Both S-1 and S-3 have fairly solid genealogies back at least 4 generations. Incorporating that information into the calculations appears to push the MRCA (with 50% probability) back even farther back.

Knowing that S-1 and S-3 could not have had a common ancestor in the last 5 generations, their
37 marker comparison shows that the probability that S-1 and S-3 shared a common ancestor
within the last ...
4-8 generations
is
0.00%
12 generations
is
0.31%
16 generations
is
2.35%
20 generations
is
8.67%
24 generations
is
20.56%
28 generations
is
36.55%

I hope to update the discussion/analysis of the more recent participants shortly.



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