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Results of the two initial tests of the Shenton surname project - S-1 and S-2 - are a surprise and a disappointment, as the two participants had been assuming a common ancestor (MRCA) had been identified at six generations back. The results, however, show that to obtain at least a 50% probability, the MRCA - based solely on the tests - must be at least 12 generations back.

In comparing 37 markers, the probability that S-1 and S-2 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

2 generations0.34%is | 4 generations3.57%is | 6 generations12.16%is | 8 generations25.43%is | 10 generations40.79%is | 12 generationsis 55.66% | |||||

14 generations66.4%is | 16 generations78.4%is | 18 generations85.74%is | 20 generations90.87%is | 22 generations94.3%is | 24 generations96.51%is |

Additionally, however, both S-1 and S-2 have fairly solid genealogies back at least 5 generations. Incorporating that information into the calculations appears to push the MRCA (with 50% probability) back to about the 13th generation.

Knowing that S-1 and S-2 could not have had a common ancestor in the last 5 generations, their 37 marker comparison shows that the probability that S-1 and S-2 shared a common ancestor within the last ... | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

5-7 generations8.9%is | 9 generations22.66%is | 11 generations38.6%is | 13 generationsis 54.02% | 15 generations67.23%is | 17 generations77.6%is | |||||

19 generations85.22%is | 21 generations90.53%is | 23 generations94.08%is | 25 generations96.38%is | 27 generations97.83%is | 29 generations98.72%is |

The results of S-3 seem to indicate an even greater distance from either S-1 or S-2, as shown below. So it appears that S-1 and S-2 are a logical "group" (although not necessarily a Lineage), whereas S-3 represents a second Group. More participants are definitely needed.

In comparing 37 markers, the probability that S-1 and S-3 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

4 generations0.00%is | 8 generations0.03%is | 12 generations0.56%is | 16 generations3.44%is | 20 generations11.13%is | 24 generationsis 24.28% |

Both S-1 and S-3 have fairly solid genealogies back at least 4 generations. Incorporating that information into the calculations appears to push the MRCA (with 50% probability) back even farther back.

Knowing that S-1 and S-3 could not have had a common ancestor in the last 5 generations, their 37 marker comparison shows that the probability that S-1 and S-3 shared a common ancestor within the last ... | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

4-8 generations0.00%is | 12 generations0.31%is | 16 generations2.35%is | 20 generations8.67%is | 24 generations20.56%is | 28 generationsis 36.55% |

**I hope to update the discussion/analysis of the more recent participants shortly**.

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