The ultimate purpose of this page is to discuss our DNA results.
- An example of what this page will look like over time is the Hodges DNA Project Discussion Page.
- Feel free to discuss this project on the Shenton FamilyForum (link in light gray menu)
- Click on Order Test (link in light gray menu) to place an order for a DNA test at Family Tree DNA
Results of the two initial tests of the Shenton surname project - S-1 and S-2 - are a surprise and a disappointment, as the two participants had been assuming a common ancestor (MRCA) had been identified at six generations back. The results, however, show that to obtain at least a 50% probability, the MRCA - based solely on the tests - must be at least 12 generations back.
| In comparing 37 markers, the probability that S-1 and S-2 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 generations is 0.34% | 4 generations is 3.57% | 6 generations is 12.16% | 8 generations is 25.43% | 10 generations is 40.79% | 12 generations is 55.66% | |||||
| 14 generations is 66.4% | 16 generations is 78.4% | 18 generations is 85.74% | 20 generations is 90.87% | 22 generations is 94.3% | 24 generations is 96.51% | |||||
Additionally, however, both S-1 and S-2 have fairly solid genealogies back at least 5 generations. Incorporating that information into the calculations appears to push the MRCA (with 50% probability) back to about the 13th generation.
| Knowing that S-1 and S-2 could not have had a common ancestor in the last 5 generations, their 37 marker comparison shows that the probability that S-1 and S-2 shared a common ancestor within the last ... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-7 generations is 8.9% | 9 generations is 22.66% | 11 generations is 38.6% | 13 generations is 54.02% | 15 generations is 67.23% | 17 generations is 77.6% | |||||
| 19 generations is 85.22% | 21 generations is 90.53% | 23 generations is 94.08% | 25 generations is 96.38% | 27 generations is 97.83% | 29 generations is 98.72% | |||||
The results of S-3 seem to indicate an even greater distance from either S-1 or S-2, as shown below. So it appears that S-1 and S-2 are a logical "group" (although not necessarily a Lineage), whereas S-3 represents a second Group. More participants are definitely needed.
| In comparing 37 markers, the probability that S-1 and S-3 shared a common ancestor within the last... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 generations is 0.00% | 8 generations is 0.03% | 12 generations is 0.56% | 16 generations is 3.44% | 20 generations is 11.13% | 24 generations is 24.28% | |||||
Both S-1 and S-3 have fairly solid genealogies back at least 4 generations. Incorporating that information into the calculations appears to push the MRCA (with 50% probability) back even farther back.
| Knowing that S-1 and S-3 could not have had a common ancestor in the last 5 generations, their 37 marker comparison shows that the probability that S-1 and S-3 shared a common ancestor within the last ... | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-8 generations is 0.00% | 12 generations is 0.31% | 16 generations is 2.35% | 20 generations is 8.67% | 24 generations is 20.56% | 28 generations is 36.55% | |||||
I hope to update the discussion/analysis of the more recent participants shortly.
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