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Table 1 (see below) provides a comparison between the Project's participants. Each participant is represented by a Kit Number, a Surname and a Place of Origin. If the participant wished not to post his surname then the Surname is listed as N/A. Other data associated with each participant includes the Number of Markers, Genetic Distance and 24 GEN. The Number of Markers, NM, refers to the number of markers on the Y-chromosome that were tested in order to make a comparison between two project participants. The Genetic Distance, GD, is the number of genetic differences between two project participants. 24 GEN is the probability that two participants share a common ancestor within 24 Generations as calculated by Family Tree DNA Time Predictor (FTDNATiP). Assuming that each generation is between 20 and 30 years, 24 Generations would cover a period of time going back 480 to 720 years. For example, based upon this assumption, a project participant born in the year 1950 would know the probability of sharing a common ancestor who was born between 1230 A.D. and 1470 A.D. with another project participant. Coincidently the time period between 1230 A.D. and 1470 A.D. roughly approximates the time when surnames began appearing or the time just prior to the appearance of surnames.

 

The results in Table 1 indicate that the 3 participating members of the project have a high probability of sharing a common Melican ancestor within the last 24 generations. This is despite the fact the each participant has their earliest known ancestor originating from a different locality within County Clare. The distance between these localities is listed in Table 3 below. The greatest distance of 31.4 miles (50.5 km) is between Clonwhite and Knockmeal. By today's standard this distance may not seem significant but in earlier times it was. According to demographers "in the late 18th century spouses lived only a few miles from each other, which means that most people were marrying people from the same, or perhaps a neighboring, village" (Spencer Wells, Deep Ancestry [Washington, DC, National Geographic Society, 2006], p. 30).

 

Table 2 provides more detail concerning how the participants are related. Based upon the DNA results the Knockmeal Melicans are more closely related to the Lissycasey Melicans than to the Clonwhite Melicans. In other words, the Knockmeal Melicans and the Lissycasey Melicans shared a common ancestor more recently than they did with the Clonwhite Melicans.

 

Although the DNA results show that the participants share a common ancestor, the sample size is small. With such a small sample it is not yet possible to say that all Melicans of County Clare shared a common Melican ancestor.

 


 

    79465: Melican (Knockmeal) 110908: Melican (Clonwhite) 111858: Melican (Lissycasey)
Kit No. Surname NM GD 24 GEN NM GD 24 GEN NM GD 24 GEN
79465 Melican (Knockmeal) --- --- --- 37 4 95.99% 37 2 99.81%
110908 Melican (Clonwhite) 37 4 95.99% --- --- --- 37 4 95.34%
111858 Melican (Lissycasey) 37 2 99.81% 37 4 95.34% --- --- ---
Table 1: Probability of Project Participants being related within 24 Generations as of 17 May 2008

 

The results presented in Table 1 can be interpreted by using the following statement:

Based upon the analysis of [NM] markers, Kit Number (upper most row), (Surname and Place from upper most row), has a genetic distance of [GD] and a [24 GEN] probability of sharing a common ancestor within the last 24 generations with Kit Number (left most column), (Surname), according to the Family Tree DNA Time Predictor (FTDNATiP).

For example,

Based upon the analysis of 37 markers, Kit Number 110908, the Melican from Clonwhite, has a genetic distance of 4 and a 95.99% probability of sharing a common ancestor within the last 24 generations with Kit Number 79465, the Melican from Knockmeal, according to the Family Tree DNA Time Predictor (FTDNATiP).

 


 

Melican's Place of Origin (Kit)   Generations [G] with Associated Percent (%) Probabilities [P]
A B NM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Knockmeal (79465) Lissycasey (11858) 37 2.54 9.16 18.88 30.15 41.65 52.45 62.04 70.22 76.98 82.43 86.73 90.07
Knockmeal (79465) Clonwhite (110908) 37 0.03 0.31 1.26 3.30 6.66 11.36 17.25 24.04 31.40 38.98 46.49 53.68
Clonwhite (110908) Lissycasey (11858) 37 0.02 0.28 1.15 3.03 6.16 10.57 16.15 22.63 29.72 37.08 44.45 51.57
Table 2A: Probability of Project Participants being related for Generations 1 thru 12

 

Melican's Place of Origin (Kit)   Generations [G] with Associated Percent (%) Probabilities [P]
A B NM 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Knockmeal (79465) Lissycasey (11858) 37 92.64 94.58 96.03 97.11 97.91 98.50 98.92 99.23 99.45 99.62 99.73 99.81
Knockmeal (79465) Clonwhite (110908) 37 60.39 66.51 71.96 76.75 80.88 84.40 87.37 89.94 91.88 93.54 94.90 95.99
Clonwhite (110908) Lissycasey (11858) 37 58.27 64.44 69.99 74.90 79.19 82.87 86.01 88.64 90.84 92.65 94.13 95.34
Table 2B: Probability of Project Participants being related for Generations 13 thru 24

The results presented in Table 2 (A & B) can be interpreted by using the following statement:

In comparing [NM] markers, the probability of the Melicans from [A] and the Melicans from [B] sharing a common ancestor within [G] generations is [P]%.

For example,

In comparing 37 markers, the probability of the Melicans from Knockmeal (79465) and the Melicans from Lissycasey (11858) sharing a common ancestor within 12 generations is 90.07%.

 


 

  Clonwhite Kilbaha Knockmeal Lissycasey Tulla
  kilometers miles kilometers miles kilometers miles kilometers miles kilometers miles
Clonwhite --- --- 46.9 29.2 50.5 31.4 17.4 10.8 67.0 41.6
Kilbaha 46.9 29.2 --- --- 95.0 59.0 62.1 38.6 96.0 59.6
Knockmeal 50.5 31.4 95.0 59.0 --- --- 32.8 20.6 2.1 1.3
Lissycasey 17.4 10.8 62.1 38.6 32.8 20.6 --- --- 33.8 21.0
Tulla 67.0 41.6 96.0 59.6 2.1 1.3 33.8 21.0 --- ---
Table 3: Distances between where the Melicans lived in County Clare, Ireland

 



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