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Mike Walsh
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« on: July 29, 2011, 06:21:44 PM »

Here are the latest relative variance numbers for R-L21 and its major subclades.  The variance numbers are on the slowest 35 STRs of the first 67. They are relative to R-P312 where R-P312 = 1.0.  The count of SNP confirmed folks is the column of the right.

R-L21 All ....... .91 .. 2626
. L513(DF1) ..... .67 .. 102
.. L193 ......... .44 .. 47
. P314.2 ........ .59 .. 24
. DF21 .......... .56 .. 7
. M222 .......... .40 .. 595
. L144 .......... .40 .. 13
. L159.2 ........ .35 .. 100
. L226 .......... .22 .. 97
« Last Edit: July 29, 2011, 06:24:08 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2011, 06:58:29 PM »

Here are the latest relative variance numbers for R-L21 and its major subclades.  The variance numbers are on the slowest 35 STRs of the first 67. They are relative to R-P312 where R-P312 = 1.0.  The count of SNP confirmed folks is the column of the right.

R-L21 All ....... .91 .. 2626
. L513(DF1) ..... .67 .. 102
.. L193 ......... .44 .. 47
. P314.2 ........ .59 .. 24
. DF21 .......... .56 .. 7
. M222 .......... .40 .. 595
. L144 .......... .40 .. 13
. L159.2 ........ .35 .. 100
. L226 .......... .22 .. 97


There are other newly discovered SNPs, many of which may be private.  However, a very significant one may be DF23, which is reported to be upstream of M222.  The exact placement of DF21 is also unknown. It is possible that L226 might descend from it (similarity in some haplotypes.)
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2011, 06:48:11 AM »

So L21 remains over 90% the age of S116 as a whole.  I suppose that translates as 4 or 500 years younger if S116 is 4-5000 years old and obviously something like 700 years younger if S116 is something nearer 7000 years old as some would have.  Either way, 400-700 years is not an insignificant amount of time and would make a big difference to expansion possibilities if other clades like U152 were nearly as old as U152.  In fact that kind of span of time is big enough to mean the difference could be archaeologically detectable.  In terms of arguing over various models, I think it would be significant if there was a 4-700 year hiatus between U152 and L21 because that would not fit into the beaker model which would not suggest that sort of hiatus between NW Europe and west-central Europe.  However, a significant hiatus did occur between the spread of farming to west-central Europe and the Atlantic areas of Europe. 
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2011, 08:04:09 AM »

Thanks, Mike, for that update.

I am trying to decide which L21 SNPs to order. I might order DF21, but I am definitely interested in DF23, which FTDNA is not yet offering.

I could be wrong, but I don't think there is much chance I am positive for any of the others, which is why I have never ordered FTDNA's most recent Deep Clade upgrade.

I know negative results are informative, but I hate paying money for them.
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2011, 05:09:30 PM »

I just got the last of my Deep Clade results back from FTDNA (kit #188436):

P312+  L21+  L513+  U152-  U106-  P66-  P314.2-  M37-  M222-  L96-  L257-  L226-  L193-  L176.2-  L159.2-  L144-

So apparently the 11-13 Combo is very much tied to L513+. I have been trying to make sense of what that means. My questions are:

1. Have all 11-13 Combo people who have been tested for L513 come back positive?

2. Are all L513+ people also 11-13 Combo?

3. What is the estimated age of L513?

4. Are there any SNP’s that we can safely say occurred after the migration of L21 to the British Isles?

L513 still seems to be founded in Continental Europe. The breakdown, by my analysis, is:

Total members of the R-L21 Project with 67 markers    2716
Number meeting the 11-13 Combo criteria                    509  (19% of total)
Number of those definitely from the British Isles            336  (66% of 11-13)
Number of those definitely from Continental Europe          8  (1.6% of 11-13)
Number of those whose origin is undefined                   165  (32.4% of 11-13)

5. Has anybody found some defining pattern between British Isles and Continental L21 haplotypes and now L513 haplotypes?




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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2011, 10:26:44 AM »

Thanks, Mike, for that update.

I am trying to decide which L21 SNPs to order. I might order DF21, but I am definitely interested in DF23, which FTDNA is not yet offering.

I could be wrong, but I don't think there is much chance I am positive for any of the others, which is why I have never ordered FTDNA's most recent Deep Clade upgrade.

I know negative results are informative, but I hate paying money for them.
There is no (none) common off-modal STR across 111 markers that flags DF21. It's old so anyone could have it.   DF23 is too early to know much.
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2011, 01:16:59 PM »

1. Have all 11-13 Combo people who have been tested for L513 come back positive?
No. On the 11-13 project Y classic results screen, group P12 is not really 617=13 and these Subgroup P12 guys are P314.2+ L513-.
However, the next Subgroup, P13, is truly 406s1= and 617=13 and this group is P314.2+ L513-.
There is the next category, not really a related subgroup, labeled with "Q" that are true 406s=11 617=13 guys that are L513- that also appear to be P314.2-.

This is somewhat consistent. If we removed L513+ people from the equation, each of the major R1b subclades as a couple of people who are 406s1=11 and 617=13. There is some coincidental convergence. Not much, but it still happens. It's important to actually do the L513 SNP test to make sure.

Quote from: admixman
2. Are all L513+ people also 11-13 Combo?
No. It's rare, but there are two L513+ that are 406s1=10, which is WAMH or L21 modal. So far 617 has had true fidelity. All L513+'s have 617>=13 (versus L21 modal/WAMH is 12.)

However, there is a caveat. Since we have L513+ who are 617=14 and even 617=15, there was plenty of time for some L513+ lineages to "back-mutate" to 12; like we've already had at 406s1=10. Hence, I do expect to eventually find people who are not 11-13 at all who are L513+.

Quote from: admixman
3. What is the estimated age of L513?
TMRCA estimates brood mutation rate arguments but the basis of most TMRCA methods is population variance. By intraclade variance, L513 appears to be 3/4 the age of L21 and 2/3 the age of P312. This could easily put L513 around 1000 BC to 0.

Quote from: admixman
4. Are there any SNP’s that we can safely say occurred after the migration of L21 to the British Isles?
If I was to vote one, it would be L226, which is supposed to be associated with Dalcassian clans in Ireland. It's young. I haven't found any L226+ outside of the British Isles.  It's almost all Irish.  Even a subclade like M222/NW Irish, mysteriously has a couple of German folks turning up.

Quote from: admixman
5. Has anybody found some defining pattern between British Isles and Continental L21 haplotypes and now L513 haplotypes?
I haven't seen anything like that yet. Typically Continental L21 people of any type don't fit well into patterns, which is what you might expect of a place with more diversity.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2011, 01:17:54 PM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>S6365>L705.2(&CTS11744,CTS6621)
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« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2011, 01:23:20 PM »

Thanks, Mike, for that update.

I am trying to decide which L21 SNPs to order. I might order DF21, but I am definitely interested in DF23, which FTDNA is not yet offering.

I could be wrong, but I don't think there is much chance I am positive for any of the others, which is why I have never ordered FTDNA's most recent Deep Clade upgrade.

I know negative results are informative, but I hate paying money for them.
There is no (none) common off-modal STR across 111 markers that flags DF21. It's old so anyone could have it.   DF23 is too early to know much.

Well, I went ahead and ordered DF21 just a few minutes ago.

We'll see.

That's my first y-dna testing order in awhile.
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2011, 01:23:04 AM »

I finally got around to trying to figure out Ken Nordtvedt's Generations5
interclade TMRCA (Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor) estimate method.

It uses 67 marker haplotypes (except the multi-copy ones) and includes an
innovative way to reduce error by comparing two different subclades to do
"inter"clade estimates.

Here are the Years Before Present (YBP) for the major R-L21 subclades.


Intraclade TMRCA estimates:
R-L21 All . 4135
L144 ...... 3248
DF21 ...... 3112
L513 ...... 2692
P314.2 .... 2236
M222 ...... 1683
L159.2 .... 1679
L226 ...... 1224
L193 ...... 1081


Here are the TMRCA's for various pairs of subclades.

Interclade TMRCA estimates:
L513/M222 ... 5263
M222/L159.2 . 4056
M222/L226 ... 3887
L513/L159.2 . 3699
L513/L226 ... 3049
L226/L159.2 . 2598

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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2011, 09:35:42 AM »

I finally got around to trying to figure out Ken Nordtvedt's Generations5
interclade TMRCA (Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor) estimate method.

It uses 67 marker haplotypes (except the multi-copy ones) and includes an
innovative way to reduce error by comparing two different subclades to do
"inter"clade estimates.

Here are the Years Before Present (YBP) for the major R-L21 subclades.


Intraclade TMRCA estimates:
R-L21 All . 4135
L144 ...... 3248
DF21 ...... 3112
L513 ...... 2692
P314.2 .... 2236
M222 ...... 1683
L159.2 .... 1679
L226 ...... 1224
L193 ...... 1081


Here are the TMRCA's for various pairs of subclades.

Interclade TMRCA estimates:
L513/M222 ... 5263
M222/L159.2 . 4056
M222/L226 ... 3887
L513/L159.2 . 3699
L513/L226 ... 3049
L226/L159.2 . 2598



As a method of coming up with age estimates I've got more faith in Ken's spreadsheet than others, not that I'm anywhere near understanding his maths though :)

What age / generation did you use? Looks to be 3/100 yrs at a guess
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2011, 10:45:15 AM »


As a method of coming up with age estimates I've got more faith in Ken's spreadsheet than others, not that I'm anywhere near understanding his maths though :)
Me, too.

What age / generation did you use? Looks to be 3/100 yrs at a guess
30 years per generation is what I used. I've read people say it should be slightly higher but then I've read it should be 30 up to 1000 years back and only 25 prior to that.
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2011, 11:07:42 AM »


What age / generation did you use? Looks to be 3/100 yrs at a guess

30 years per generation is what I used. I've read people say it should be slightly higher but then I've read it should be 30 up to 1000 years back and only 25 prior to that.

I've read that affirmation as well, but no research or logic to back it up. I did come across mention (somewhere) of relatively recent research that found the average was around about 32.5 in all social groups available to study today, this included nomadic and hunter gatherer.
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2011, 08:37:35 PM »


What age / generation did you use? Looks to be 3/100 yrs at a guess

30 years per generation is what I used. I've read people say it should be slightly higher but then I've read it should be 30 up to 1000 years back and only 25 prior to that.

I've read that affirmation as well, but no research or logic to back it up. I did come across mention (somewhere) of relatively recent research that found the average was around about 32.5 in all social groups available to study today, this included nomadic and hunter gatherer.
Do you have a link to that study?
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2011, 04:58:46 AM »


I've read that affirmation as well, but no research or logic to back it up. I did come across mention (somewhere) of relatively recent research that found the average was around about 32.5 in all social groups available to study today, this included nomadic and hunter gatherer.

 Do you have a link to that study?

I'm pretty sure it was mentioned on John Chandler's web site but if so I can't see it there now, I'll have a hunt through Google.

Out of interest the average age over 11 generations to me is 36 yrs, this includes a fairly mixed bag of eldest, middle and youngest sons.
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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2011, 07:32:01 PM »

What is known about L371?
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2011, 07:41:14 PM »

What is known about L371?
So far L371+ has a very strong correlation with what I've been labeling the 1714-W1 variety.

Robert Hughes knows the most about it and has a project for it.
Quote from: Robert Hughes
Originally conceived as the Wales Surname Cluster by Russell Smith and later changed to the R-17-14-10 Project to reflect the three allele modal for that group.

   The R-17-14-10 has now mutated from a single modal study of L21+ results into a multi project study of unique allele haplotypes that occur in the UK and Irish Isles.
....
Modal 1, R-L371+ Represents an early Briton (Celtic?) group found heavily today in Wales and scattered across south England.
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/R-17-14-10/default.aspx

Of the confirmed L371+ people, I have this list:

f207153     Jones    Wales
f85661       Dicks    Wales
f181160     Thomas Wales, West, Ceredigion, Y Ferwig
f36039       Gough   Ireland, Ulster, Co. Down
f183121     McKee   zzzUnkOrigin
f111398     Pugh     Wales
f16717       Pugh     Wales, Mid, Gwynedd, Merionethshire
fN84982     Turner    England, South East, Kent



« Last Edit: September 13, 2011, 07:42:33 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2011, 11:57:13 PM »

The most important characteristic of this clade is DYS450=10. This I wrote in private, here and on "Dienekes' Anthropology blog":

Andrea [Soncina], from your name and surname you seem an Italian. Can you tell me something about you and your test? Why have you put DYS19=0 and DYS19b=10? Probably you are DYS19=10 and this is very interesting for our researches. You can write in every language, also Italian which is my mother tongue.

Watching again to Argiedude’s haplotype, there are some interesting news:
1)   there is a Westwood (ySearch: 2T2AQ) who matches Kellaway (ySearch: GPYZW) and is upgraded to 37 markers
2)   there is Soncina (ySearch: UBTF9) who has DYS19=10, even though he was wrong to put his data on ySearch. I have written to him. Soncina is a Lombard surname, linked with the town of Soncino. Soncino was in Italy a Jewish surname, but Soncina is certainly Italian. He, even though almost distant from Argiedude, could belong to the same Italian cluster. Hope he replies to me.

In a thread I have on www.worldfamilies.net, Another Italian L21?, I wrote:

“Why do I hope having found in Soncina (UBTF9) the possible witness of this hypothetical Italian R-L21? Because he has the very rare DYS19=10. Then he has DYS385=11,14 (the modal before the RecLOH), and other modal markers or quasi-modal, but DYS450=10, against the ubiquitous 8, could be a sign”.

My hypothesis is that also R-L21 can be born in the Italian Lake region, having in Argiedude, from Como lake, one of the most ancient haplotype of this haplogroup. This hypothetical R-L21 Soncina is from Garda Lake, and he has the very rare DYS450=10. I don ’t know if you know that there, in a little town, has been found a mutation which permit to its owner to live till 100 years. For this I am very interested to your case.

Sunday, September 04, 2011 1:27:00 AM

« Last Edit: September 14, 2011, 03:41:12 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2011, 07:57:00 AM »

What is known about L371?
So far L371+ has a very strong correlation with what I've been labeling the 1714-W1 variety.

Robert Hughes knows the most about it and has a project for it.
Quote from: Robert Hughes
Originally conceived as the Wales Surname Cluster by Russell Smith and later changed to the R-17-14-10 Project to reflect the three allele modal for that group.

   The R-17-14-10 has now mutated from a single modal study of L21+ results into a multi project study of unique allele haplotypes that occur in the UK and Irish Isles.
....
Modal 1, R-L371+ Represents an early Briton (Celtic?) group found heavily today in Wales and scattered across south England.
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/R-17-14-10/default.aspx

Of the confirmed L371+ people, I have this list:

f207153     Jones    Wales
f85661       Dicks    Wales
f181160     Thomas Wales, West, Ceredigion, Y Ferwig
f36039       Gough   Ireland, Ulster, Co. Down
f183121     McKee   zzzUnkOrigin
f111398     Pugh     Wales
f16717       Pugh     Wales, Mid, Gwynedd, Merionethshire
fN84982     Turner    England, South East, Kent


Thanks. I'll watch for that signature.

Probably not a test I want to spend money on for myself, however.
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2011, 07:06:28 PM »

ISOGG just put them on their official Y DNA tree.

What is known about L371?
So far L371+ has a very strong correlation with what I've been labeling the 1714-W1 variety.

Robert Hughes knows the most about it and has a project for it.
Quote from: Robert Hughes
Originally conceived as the Wales Surname Cluster by Russell Smith and later changed to the R-17-14-10 Project to reflect the three allele modal for that group.

   The R-17-14-10 has now mutated from a single modal study of L21+ results into a multi project study of unique allele haplotypes that occur in the UK and Irish Isles.
....
Modal 1, R-L371+ Represents an early Briton (Celtic?) group found heavily today in Wales and scattered across south England.
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/R-17-14-10/default.aspx

Of the confirmed L371+ people, I have this list:

f207153     Jones    Wales
f85661       Dicks    Wales
f181160     Thomas Wales, West, Ceredigion, Y Ferwig
f36039       Gough   Ireland, Ulster, Co. Down
f183121     McKee   zzzUnkOrigin
f111398     Pugh     Wales
f16717       Pugh     Wales, Mid, Gwynedd, Merionethshire
fN84982     Turner    England, South East, Kent


Thanks. I'll watch for that signature.

Probably not a test I want to spend money on for myself, however.
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« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2011, 04:32:09 PM »

A new L21 map has been posted on Eupedia

http://www.eupedia.com/forum/showthread.php?26785-New-map-of-haplogroup-R1b-L21-(S145)



« Last Edit: September 15, 2011, 05:37:10 PM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
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« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2011, 05:04:01 PM »

Overall, even if in many areas it is the junior partner compared to U152, L21 does have a presence throughout much of what was the Celtic speaking block of Europe prior to late expansions to the east and south.  The detached Scandinavian bit is odd and is probably a relatively late part of the L21 story if the posted variance measurements for that area are anything to go by. 
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« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2011, 07:50:00 PM »


That is a far better looking map than the one in Busby.
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« Reply #22 on: September 16, 2011, 10:12:07 AM »

I agree so I'm posting the Eupedia version in the FILES section at our Yahoo Group.

You might be interested in this.  I drew a decsendancy tree chart showing the various SNPs we are tracking for L21.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/RL21Project/files/Haplogroup_R-L21_Tree_Chart.jpg

The layering from L21 to DF21 to DF25/P314.2/DF5, etc. is amazing. Those guys are pretty lucky to have this level of nesting within what was only L21* about a year ago.  Well, its a ton of hard work and test expenditures.. not just luck.
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« Reply #23 on: September 16, 2011, 11:41:52 AM »

The Eupedia map is the best ever produced for L21. I think it demonstrates a phenomenon that I think is also present for U106.  That is that variance suggests it is older in a place where it is less common and that it piled up to high frequency at a major natural terminus on its eastward trek.  In the case of U106 the variance is higher in Poland but the frequency is highest at the west end of its main block of presence i.e. Holland at the Rhine barrier.  L21 has highest variance in France, tentatively suggested to be north-central-east France and its highest frequency in in the NW of France and the Celtic parts of the isles.  Again, natural terminuses on a trek west.  The NW of France is on of those land-end type terminuses and the isles are a classic situation for a founder effect and a further final offshore terminus. I actually suspect L21 does have higher variance even further east than eastern France but the numbers are too low to pick up the full variance without a huge sample.  

My impression (based on variance) is that L21 was a late starter compared to U152 (the difference in variance over all could amount to a few centuries at least) BUT that it was on the scene and slowly increased as it headed NW, possibly somehow winning the race to the NW corner of the continent and putting it in a good position to have a big impact on the isles, especially the western half.  

I cant see an awful lot more is going to be learned about L21 as a whole now unless massive sampling is done.  I think future progress is going to be in the field of downstream SNPs.  As it seems that L21 may have crossed to England fairly soon after its coming into existence, I dont hold great hopes of an SNP that lies between L21 on the continent and its crossing to the isles IF variance is an indication.  All of it probably didnt cross at one but I do suspect the bulk is descended from the initial wave.  This could all be wrong as its like looking through a very dusty window but its how I would interpret what we have to date.    
« Last Edit: September 16, 2011, 11:45:56 AM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
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« Reply #24 on: September 16, 2011, 02:08:26 PM »

I actually suspect L21 does have higher variance even further east than eastern France but the numbers are too low to pick up the full variance without a huge sample.  
I cant see an awful lot more is going to be learned about L21 as a whole now unless massive sampling is done.  I think future progress is going to be in the field of downstream SNPs.    

I agree and suspect that L21 is born somewhere between Hungary and Germany. We just need more sampling from those areas, something that may be limited from commercial sampling.
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