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Author Topic: Ancestry.com and an Exact 27-Marker Match  (Read 4745 times)
Jdean
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« Reply #25 on: September 23, 2011, 10:11:40 PM »

This is a Golden Match for you.

Yep, congrats :)
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Y-DNA R-DF49*
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Kit No. 117897
Ysearch 3BMC9

rms2
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« Reply #26 on: September 24, 2011, 09:18:37 AM »

This is a Golden Match for you. What are the average number of years between birth events in your Stevens lines?

The reason I ask is that I am wondering if the standard quanity of probability percentage provided by TIP Generation level be at least the SD of +1 or 68.26% instead of the 50 or 95% that is being utilized normally to?

Just using my own y-dna ancestors, all the way back to my most distant known y-dna ancestor, and including how old I was when my eldest boy was born, I get an average of 28 years per generation.
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rms2
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« Reply #27 on: September 24, 2011, 09:32:52 AM »

That's great news.  None of those are slow markers either.  Maybe, 300-800 yrs. to common ancestor?

I'm guessing 300-350 years. Since we both had ancestors in the Pennsylvania-Ohio area at the same time, I don't think our most recent common ancestor predates the arrival of our line in North America. I'm thinking it goes back to the immigrant or perhaps to a generation or two after the arrival of the immigrant.

Unfortunately, neither of us knows who the immigrant was or where he came from.

If you recall a couple of the earlier posts in this thread, this match and I both have a 35/37 match with a man who spells his surname Stephens and who traces his ancestry to Caswell County, North Carolina, in 1789.

I don't know how that one will turn out at 67 markers, if it ever goes to 67 markers, but his only mismatch with me comes at CDYa/b where he has 37-39 and I have 38-38. That's not much of a mismatch, given that CDY is a fast mutator.

My theory is that our mutual y-dna ancestor arrived in North America from somewhere in the British Isles in the 17th or early 18th century. By the time you get to the ancestors we are able to trace, the line had already been here for several generations and had spread to different places.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2011, 09:35:53 AM by rms2 » Logged

A.D.
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« Reply #28 on: September 24, 2011, 09:57:07 PM »

I think that in the time frame for  the Ulster-Irish  emmegration to the U.S. theres a lot of Stevens/Stephens around mid-ulster might be wotht checking out.
If you need any local help just ask.
Good luck.
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rms2
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« Reply #29 on: September 25, 2011, 07:32:50 AM »

I think that in the time frame for  the Ulster-Irish  emmegration to the U.S. theres a lot of Stevens/Stephens around mid-ulster might be wotht checking out.
If you need any local help just ask.
Good luck.

Thanks. I have noticed in the records available at Ancestry.com that a lot of the immigrant Stevens/Stephens came from Ireland.
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #30 on: September 25, 2011, 07:51:24 AM »

Okay, my Ancestry.com exact 27-marker match guy - who has the same surname as me, remember - got the last of his 67-marker results today.

We are a 63/67 match.

Here are the differences.

CDYa/b

Him = 38-39

Me = 38-38

576

Him = 18

Me = 17

557

Him = 16

Me = 17

534

Him = 13

Me = 14

So what do you think?

Not as close as I had hoped, but still a likely y-dna relative. Here's what FTDNA's Tip chart says:

Tip Report

In comparing 67 markers, the probability that . . .  and . . .  shared a common ancestor within the last...

Comparison Chart
Generations    Percentage

4    9.00%
8    45.94%
12    78.16%
16    93.14%
20    98.17%

24    99.57%
28    99.91%


My calculation pretends to be exact:

0,006720+
0,005490+
0,003800+
0,006510=0,022520:4=0,005630

1:0,005630=177,619
(177,619 x 4) : 134= 5,3

5,3 x 32 = 169,6 years ago the MRCA.


« Last Edit: September 25, 2011, 07:52:36 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

Maliclavelli


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« Reply #31 on: September 25, 2011, 07:54:17 AM »

Or, better, about 170 years before your births.
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Maliclavelli


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rms2
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« Reply #32 on: September 25, 2011, 08:06:50 AM »

Thanks, Gioiello.

I was born in 1955, so that would place the connection at about 1785. That is probably not too far off, since both of us hit the genealogical brick wall at about 1800 (1804 for me, with the birth of my ggg-grandfather, 1795 for him).

I should mention, in case anyone is that interested and checks Ysearch, that my match is a biological Stevens but does not currently carry that surname. He was born a Stevens. His biological father, a Stevens, was a fighter pilot in WWII who was killed over Formosa (Taiwan) near the end of the war in 1945. My match's mother later remarried. He was subsequently legally adopted by his stepfather.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2011, 08:08:10 AM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #33 on: September 25, 2011, 08:20:52 AM »

Thanks, Gioiello.

I was born in 1955, so that would place the connection at about 1785. That is probably not too far off, since both of us hit the genealogical brick wall at about 1800 (1804 for me, with the birth of my ggg-grandfather, 1795 for him).

I should mention, in case anyone is that interested and checks Ysearch, that my match is a biological Stevens but does not currently carry that surname. He was born a Stevens. His biological father, a Stevens, was a fighter pilot in WWII who was killed over Formosa (Taiwan) near the end of the war in 1945. My match's mother later remarried. He was subsequently legally adopted by his stepfather.

Oh, there is also that other match, the 35/37 one who spells his surname Stephens. They can get their y line to 1789 in North Carolina.

So, your figure of 170 years is probably not too far off, Gioiello.
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« Reply #34 on: September 25, 2011, 09:30:19 AM »

I have just been in email contact with my 35/37 Stephens match, the one who traces his ancestry to Caswell County, North Carolina, 1789. The lady in charge of that kit (his daughter) has just ordered an upgrade to 67 markers. (I have that confirmed by FTDNA, too.)

As I mentioned, we differ only at CDYa/b, where he has 37-39 and I have 38-38.

I hope this match holds up.

(Now if I could just get a match with someone who knows who the immigrant was!)

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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #35 on: September 25, 2011, 01:15:02 PM »

I was going to ask you if you had ever contacted Beddoes (GY2YT) and I am seeing you put him on ySearch. He is very close to you (2 out 67 markers) and he matches VT2R6. Also Webb (T4QRS), WEKT6 and RWAMS are very close to you. WEKT6 is also tested R-L21. Then there are the Prices :YF3FG, 9KCJM (and it would be interesting to test your DYS452 and DYS463: 31 and 22 are unusual in our haplogroup).
And so on.
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Maliclavelli


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rms2
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« Reply #36 on: September 25, 2011, 01:27:03 PM »

I was going to ask you if you had ever contacted Beddoes (GY2YT) and I am seeing you put him on ySearch. He is very close to you (2 out 67 markers) and he matches VT2R6. Also Webb (T4QRS), WEKT6 and RWAMS are very close to you. WEKT6 is also tested R-L21. Then there are the Prices :YF3FG, 9KCJM (and it would be interesting to test your DYS452 and DYS463: 31 and 22 are unusual in our haplogroup).
And so on.


I did communicate with Mr. Beddoes for awhile, off and on. He actually created that Ysearch entry himself. He was born in Worcester, England, but now lives in Canada (if he is still alive). He told me his family has always lived in Shropshire.

He is elderly and not very communicative.

I have good reason to believe he may actually be a Stevens, but I cannot discuss the particulars in a public forum. I don't have any kind of real proof, however.
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« Reply #37 on: September 25, 2011, 01:43:00 PM »

I was going to ask you if you had ever contacted Beddoes (GY2YT) and I am seeing you put him on ySearch. He is very close to you (2 out 67 markers) and he matches VT2R6. Also Webb (T4QRS), WEKT6 and RWAMS are very close to you. WEKT6 is also tested R-L21. Then there are the Prices :YF3FG, 9KCJM (and it would be interesting to test your DYS452 and DYS463: 31 and 22 are unusual in our haplogroup).
And so on.


Who among my matches has those markers?
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #38 on: September 25, 2011, 02:37:48 PM »

That Price (9KCJM) is linked to you is only an hypothesis: but your data are a cluster:
DYD390=23
DYS385=11,11
DYS439=11
DYS447=24
DYS464=15,16,17,17 (but Price has d=18)

Of course we should test the Prices for R-L21, but I have found on your R-L21 project a Cottrell (not classified) with DYS463=22.

This could mean that you are an ancient subclade of R-L21... the answer when you will be tested for the new SNPs.
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Maliclavelli


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« Reply #39 on: September 25, 2011, 06:43:44 PM »

I was actually aware of the cluster and have been for awhile. I haven't been able to do much with it because most of its members aren't too interested, and most of them, like me, can't get their y-dna lines out of North America.

I don't know how soon I'll find an SNP downstream of L21. There are too many new SNPs for me to be able to afford to test all of them a la carte. I'll have to get lucky and just happen on the right one to test. I plan to try DF23 when it becomes available. If that one fails, then I don't know what or when is next.

It would be nice if one of my cluster mates was a big dna tester, but I am probably the most enthusiastic of the bunch. My enthusiasm has economic limits, however.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2011, 06:50:55 PM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #40 on: September 25, 2011, 06:59:31 PM »

That Price (9KCJM) is linked to you is only an hypothesis: but your data are a cluster:
DYD390=23
DYS385=11,11
DYS439=11
DYS447=24
DYS464=15,16,17,17 (but Price has d=18)

Of course we should test the Prices for R-L21, but I have found on your R-L21 project a Cottrell (not classified) with DYS463=22.

This could mean that you are an ancient subclade of R-L21... the answer when you will be tested for the new SNPs.

I wanted to add something about that cluster. Its only really solid markers are 390=23 and 447=24. The others are all fast movers. Taken all together, they're meaningful, but they are still somewhat unstable.

The problem with 390=23 and 447=24 is that they are both key markers in the U106+ (now Z8+) "Frisian Modal Haplotype", which is why I can only consider really close matches at 37 or 67 markers or guys who have actually tested L21+ as being members of my cluster. An apparent member of the cluster who has 67 markers and 492=12 is probably good, too, since few U106+ guys have 492=12.

It would be nice if the cluster started popping up frequently somewhere in the British Isles.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2011, 07:01:31 PM by rms2 » Logged

Maliclavelli
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« Reply #41 on: September 26, 2011, 04:13:35 PM »

Rich Stevens (HX9ZF) and Beddoes (GY2YT) have 2 mutations out of 67 markers (CDYa 38 against 37 and DYS413a 21 against 22). Their relatedness cannot be old of centuries.
By comparing many closely related haplotypes, we can affirm that CDYa=38 of Stevens and his sons is a recent mutation of his line: also other Stephens (6A342, BNB2P) and other related families maintain 37 (Price-Parris: NF2TH), Webb (RWAMS), Webb (T4QRS). Another Webb (WEKT6), who has 38, has mutated independently amongst the Webb line. In fact who has 37 at CDYa, has also 22 at DYS413a, against the value of 21 of those who have CDYa=38.
Unfortunately all these persons aren’t tested for all the same markers, but we can say that the original value of 413a was 22, and only the Rich’s line has mutated to 21.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2011, 03:45:56 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

Maliclavelli


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rms2
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« Reply #42 on: September 26, 2011, 06:52:45 PM »

Thanks, Gioiello. I am afraid the Beddoes connection may remain a mystery for a long long time. Neither I nor he has any other Beddoes matches, if you take my meaning. And he never seemed too keen on trying to ferret out the answer.

My y-dna line has been in North America a long time, at least since before 1804, and Mr. Beddoes was born in England.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2011, 07:03:11 PM by rms2 » Logged

Maliclavelli
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« Reply #43 on: September 26, 2011, 11:14:18 PM »

If Mr Beddoes was born in England, there is an only explication: he maintains the original values of the Stevens family and these mutations have happened in your American line. But why your line has had two mutations and this Beddoes none? In a so recent time it is all probabilistic and probably your line was more prolific.
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Maliclavelli


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« Reply #44 on: September 27, 2011, 04:05:25 AM »

GY2YT   Beddoes   England    
13   23   14   11   11   11   12   12   11   13   13   29   16   9   10   11   11   24   15   19   28   15   16   17   17   11   11   19   23   15   15   17   17   37   38   12   12
358E9   Stevens   Wheeling, West Virginia, USA
13   23   14   11   11   11   12   12   11   13   13   29   16   9   10   11   11   24   15   19   28   15   16   17   17   11   11   19   23   15   15   17   17   38   38   12   12                                                                                                                       
6A342   Stephens   North Carolina, USA    
13   23   14   11   11   11   12   12   11   13   13   29   16   9   10   11   11   24   15   19   28   15   16   17   17   11   11   19   23   15   15   17   17   37   39   12   12                                                                                                                       
BNB2P   Stephens   North Carolina, USA    
13   23   14   11   11   11   12   12   11   13   13   29   16   9   10   11   11   24   15   19   28   15   16   17   17   11   11   19   23   15   15   17   17   37   39   12   12                                                                                                                       
RWAMS   Webb   New Jersey, USA    
13   23   14   11   11   11   12   12   11   13   13   29   16   9   10   11   11   24   15   19   28   15   16   17   18   11   11   19   23   15   15   17   17   37   38   12   12                                                                                                                       
X45FC   Stevens   Wheeling, West Virginia, USA    
13   23   14   11   11   11   12   12   11   13   13   29   16   9   10   11   11   24   15   19   28   15   16   17   17   11   11   19   23   15   15   17   17   38   38   12   12   

These three lines (Stevens, Stephens and Webb) have only one mutation respect the ancestral Stevens.                                                                                                                    
« Last Edit: September 27, 2011, 02:55:45 PM by Maliclavelli » Logged

Maliclavelli


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rms2
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« Reply #45 on: September 27, 2011, 07:13:04 PM »

Thanks, Gioiello. Those North Carolina entries must be new and from my latest 37-marker match.

358E9 is my second cousin (once removed), Mark. Our most recent
common ancestor is my gg-grandfather, James Holmes Stevens,
who was born in 1835 in Beaver County, Pennsylvania.

X45FC is my eldest son, Erik.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2011, 07:27:21 PM by rms2 » Logged

Maliclavelli
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« Reply #46 on: September 28, 2011, 04:58:46 AM »

There is a Stevens of your family tested by SMGF (see Ysearch 5GCT5). Unfortunately they have released so far only 21 values. Anyway I was able to ascertain that your DYS463 is 24, then the hypothesis I did about a possible DYS452=31 and DYS463=22 falls. Others close to this Stevens have DYS452=31, but a Stephens (VRYDK), who could testify the most ancient values of you line, compared with 75YXB, is really R1b1a2a1a1a4a. Then nothing about your DYS452, but probably it is the modal 30.

Comparing this Stevens with his 21 values, the closest ones are my friend Belgieri and his relatives, and also my line is at a GD of 6. Even though Belgieri is R-U152/L20+, and I am the ancestor R1b1b2a1/L150+, it seems to me that everything indicates also for you the Alpine Region.
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Maliclavelli


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« Reply #47 on: September 28, 2011, 06:39:01 PM »

That is probably me. I sent in a sample to SMGF way back
in 2006. Last time I checked, they had me up to 17 markers,
but that was a long time ago. I guess they're up to 21 now.
I gave up on SMGF long ago.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2011, 06:39:25 PM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #48 on: September 28, 2011, 06:49:45 PM »

I wish I knew the answer to the Beddoes riddle.

It figures that I would get a close match like that, in
Europe, - a dream match really - and it would be with
someone with a different surname, and someone who,
while not totally uncooperative, isn't exactly
enthusiastic about it.

I guess things could be worse. I could have no matches
at all.

At least I have a pretty good inkling that my y-dna
ancestor probably came from the West Midlands of
England or maybe from nearby Wales.
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #49 on: September 29, 2011, 11:33:28 AM »

Of course I was joking: if your origins were in Italy, it should have happened thousands of years ago, and you know that my hypotheses about Argiedude and Soncina, with his DYS450=10, haven’t had so far no collaboration.

I can say to you what I have said to my friends in Italy: to reconstruct our modal step by step, because there are mutations around the modal and as time passes the mutations tends to the modal except when they mutate for the tangent and give life to the outliers.
I think having reconstructed your haplotype probably of your European ancestor: it seems that Beddoes (GY2YT) holds it intact. Closer to him are the Stevenses (you), the Stephenses and the Webbs: see above Reply#44. A little bit farther they are Price (YF3FG): DYS464d=18 from 17, CDYb=37 from 38 and DYS442=13 from 12; and Stevens (WW4G3): DYS464d=18 from 17, DYS576=16 from 17 and CDYa=35 from? This isn’t a one step mutation, and it could make us change the modal, i.e. to hypothesize that the most ancient value of this marker could be 36 and not 37. This is the way to reconstruct a modal of each line. Of course we must reconstruct all the intermediate lines.
On the line of Price (YF3FG) we have Price–Parris(NF2TH), who presupposes Price: mutations: DYS464d=18 from 17, CDYb=39 from 38, DYS442=13 from 12, DYS557=16. Is this a mutation from 17 or is it the ancient value of your line? Only other intermediate lines could make us to respond.
You know that I have always criticized the way to think to the modal like the most common values. If we don’t consider the mutations around the modal that could have happened, we really falsify their true number and the MRCA is at least 2 or 3 times younger.

The fact that you haven’t so far found a close match in Europe, in spit of the huge number of British tested, can mean only one thing: that your line was marginal, probably from the most ancient Britons arrived to the British Isles, and, like many times happens, it is present mostly amongst the descendents of migrants rather than in the fatherland. Many Italian surnames, almost rare, are disappeared in Italy but are present in South America or elsewhere. The same with DNA. Of course some Spaniards, like Yturralde (WH9TB) and Carretero (DVKVX), should be tested for more markers, because the other solution is that your ancestor was someone come from elsewhere. I don’t think to a Roman, being this haplogroup so rare in Italy, but Spain could be a possibility.
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Maliclavelli


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