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GoldenHind
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« on: June 07, 2011, 05:45:40 PM »

Though it has been mentioned on the forum, I think the discovery of this new SNP under P312 is worthy of further discussion. Personally I suspect it may have a large effect on the understanding of P312 and its history.

Z196 is a newly discovered SNP below P312. It is above L176.2, which in turn is father to both SRY2627 and L165/M68. It also includes, on a separate branch, the large north/south cluster discovered by Ken Nordtvedt, and somewhere below that cluster, M153, the so-called "Basque" subclade, which appears to be the very youngest branch of Z196.

What I find interesting about Z196, aside from what appears to be a very large size, is that it has both northern and southern European components. L176.2* appears to be primarily northern European, though it has been found in Spain. SRY2627 appears to be primarily southern, though it is found in Britain and Scandinavia. L165/M68 has only been found in Britain and Scandinavia, and was considered Germanic by the pundits until its position under P312 was discovered, when that description had to be removed, as everyone knows P312 is exclusively Celtic (aside of course from L238, which is best ignored so as to not upset perceived wisdom). Nor does Z196 appear to be exclusively Atlantic- one of the first Z196 identified is from Poland. So far nearly everyone in whom it has been found is in the north/south cluster, although there is at least one who isn't. As L176.2 and its subclades do not have the distinctive STR signature found in the north/south cluster, it seems virtually certain that that cluster is only a portion of Z196(XL176), and a much younger one to boot.

It appears to me there are only three possibilities for Z196. It represents a people which started in the north and migrated southwards, the exact opposite, or it started in central location and split into northerly and southerly directions. When sufficient numbers have been identified, it will be very interesting to see what its variance has to say about its age. Then of course people can start to try to connect it with some archaeological culture. But I think those who like to identify P312 subclades with specific Iron Age cultures or even tribes are going to have a real challenge with this one.

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2011, 06:14:45 PM »

I think Z196 is about the most exciting thing happening in p312 at the moment. It will be very interesting to see the distribution and variance of Z196*. If I had to guess I would reckon it was central European but spread in all directions from there.  Regardless, it hopefully can tell us something about the origin of S116.  It will be interesting to see the distribution and variance of S116* and Z196* once these levels of higher resolution have been attained. 
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rms2
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2011, 06:32:41 PM »

Things could change, but so far it looks like all the Z196* guys belong to the N-S Cluster.

The one guy who is currently Z196+ (and negative for all the downstream stuff except 176.2) but not in the N-S Cluster has not yet been tested for L176.2.

I'm guessing that if he does get tested for L176.2, he will be L176.2+, but I could be wrong.

It is an interesting development. I just knew (and I'm sure all of you did, too) the N-S Cluster had to have at least one new SNP in there somewhere.

Neat how it turned out to be kind of a game changer with regard to P312.

« Last Edit: June 07, 2011, 06:34:47 PM by rms2 » Logged

rms2
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2011, 06:51:07 PM »

. . .

The one guy who is currently Z196+ (and negative for all the downstream stuff except 176.2) but not in the N-S Cluster has not yet been tested for L176.2.

. . .



Oh, he hasn't been tested for L165 either, but I doubt he'll be positive for that one.
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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2011, 07:12:00 PM »

I think Z196 is about the most exciting thing happening in p312 at the moment. It will be very interesting to see the distribution and variance of Z196*. If I had to guess I would reckon it was central European but spread in all directions from there.  Regardless, it hopefully can tell us something about the origin of S116.  It will be interesting to see the distribution and variance of S116* and Z196* once these levels of higher resolution have been attained.  
There is a danger that too many P312* guys will get discouraged and assume that since if they are not in the NS cluster and not L176.2+ (L165 & SRY2627) that it is useless to test. I don't see how a best guess modal for Z196 won't be WAMH.. which means almost anyone in P312* could be Z196.

I've got the P312 people cataloged geographically so I'm just hoping for a continued rush of Z196 orders to let the numbers settle out.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2011, 10:33:49 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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rms2
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« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2011, 08:21:33 PM »

. . .

The one guy who is currently Z196+ (and negative for all the downstream stuff except 176.2) but not in the N-S Cluster has not yet been tested for L176.2.

. . .



Oh, he hasn't been tested for L165 either, but I doubt he'll be positive for that one.

I just heard from this individual, and it turns out he has already tested L176.2- and L165- via the WTY. For some reason those WTY results don't appear on his Haplotree page.

Anyway, he's been moved to the right category now.

He is NOT in the N-S Cluster, and he is R-Z196*.

Interesting!

(He does kind of hang on the outskirts of the N-S Cluster though, with 448=18, but he has 437=16 and H4=11.)
« Last Edit: June 07, 2011, 08:24:48 PM by rms2 » Logged

GoldenHind
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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2011, 09:49:39 PM »

Things could change, but so far it looks like all the Z196* guys belong to the N-S Cluster.

The one guy who is currently Z196+ (and negative for all the downstream stuff except 176.2) but not in the N-S Cluster has not yet been tested for L176.2.

I'm guessing that if he does get tested for L176.2, he will be L176.2+, but I could be wrong.

It is an interesting development. I just knew (and I'm sure all of you did, too) the N-S Cluster had to have at least one new SNP in there somewhere.

Neat how it turned out to be kind of a game changer with regard to P312.



I think it is highly unlikely that Z196 will be restricted to the north/south cluster, as neither L176.2 nor SRY2627 have the distinctive markers of the the n/s cluster. I doubt that signature would have changed with one branch of the family, while remaining with the other. All the descendants should be subject to the same random mutation rates.

It is believed that there are about seven stages of SNPs below Z196(XL176.2), and the current guessing game is which of those stages defines the n/s cluster.
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Jean M
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« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2011, 04:10:26 AM »

I think Z196 is about the most exciting thing happening in p312 at the moment. It will be very interesting to see the distribution and variance of Z196*. If I had to guess I would reckon it was central European but spread in all directions from there. 

I am tentatively pointing to Urnfield at the moment. See http://www.buildinghistory.org/distantpast/ironage.shtml
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rms2
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« Reply #8 on: June 08, 2011, 06:44:02 PM »

Things could change, but so far it looks like all the Z196* guys belong to the N-S Cluster.

The one guy who is currently Z196+ (and negative for all the downstream stuff except 176.2) but not in the N-S Cluster has not yet been tested for L176.2.

I'm guessing that if he does get tested for L176.2, he will be L176.2+, but I could be wrong.

It is an interesting development. I just knew (and I'm sure all of you did, too) the N-S Cluster had to have at least one new SNP in there somewhere.

Neat how it turned out to be kind of a game changer with regard to P312.



I think it is highly unlikely that Z196 will be restricted to the north/south cluster, as neither L176.2 nor SRY2627 have the distinctive markers of the the n/s cluster. I doubt that signature would have changed with one branch of the family, while remaining with the other. All the descendants should be subject to the same random mutation rates.

It is believed that there are about seven stages of SNPs below Z196(XL176.2), and the current guessing game is which of those stages defines the n/s cluster.

I don't think I said it is restricted to the N-S Cluster. Obviously it's not, since everyone who is L176.2+ is also Z196+.

What I said was that I knew the N-S Cluster had some new SNP connected to it. It probably has another one downstream of Z196, as well.

I also said that thus far (at the time I was looking and wrote that post) all the Z196* guys are in the N-S Cluster. That was true at the time, but it is no longer true, although the one exception is on the fringe of that cluster.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2011, 06:46:05 PM by rms2 » Logged

GoldenHind
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« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2011, 08:53:15 PM »

I think Z196 is about the most exciting thing happening in p312 at the moment. It will be very interesting to see the distribution and variance of Z196*. If I had to guess I would reckon it was central European but spread in all directions from there. 

I am tentatively pointing to Urnfield at the moment. See http://www.buildinghistory.org/distantpast/ironage.shtml

Interesting. Urnfield appears to have the requistive northern and southern spread, especially if one includes northern Urnfield, which I gather extended to the North Sea, and later expanded east to the Baltic and northwest into the Isles. The only thing missing is Scandinavia, where the north/south cluster has a not insiginicant presence.
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GoldenHind
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« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2011, 09:57:38 PM »

Things could change, but so far it looks like all the Z196* guys belong to the N-S Cluster.

The one guy who is currently Z196+ (and negative for all the downstream stuff except 176.2) but not in the N-S Cluster has not yet been tested for L176.2.

I'm guessing that if he does get tested for L176.2, he will be L176.2+, but I could be wrong.

It is an interesting development. I just knew (and I'm sure all of you did, too) the N-S Cluster had to have at least one new SNP in there somewhere.

Neat how it turned out to be kind of a game changer with regard to P312.



I think it is highly unlikely that Z196 will be restricted to the north/south cluster, as neither L176.2 nor SRY2627 have the distinctive markers of the the n/s cluster. I doubt that signature would have changed with one branch of the family, while remaining with the other. All the descendants should be subject to the same random mutation rates.

It is believed that there are about seven stages of SNPs below Z196(XL176.2), and the current guessing game is which of those stages defines the n/s cluster.

I don't think I said it is restricted to the N-S Cluster. Obviously it's not, since everyone who is L176.2+ is also Z196+.

What I said was that I knew the N-S Cluster had some new SNP connected to it. It probably has another one downstream of Z196, as well.

I also said that thus far (at the time I was looking and wrote that post) all the Z196* guys are in the N-S Cluster. That was true at the time, but it is no longer true, although the one exception is on the fringe of that cluster.

It sounded to me as if you were suggesting that Z196 individuals who were not in the north/south cluster were likely to be L176.2. For the reasons I stated, I don't think that is likely to be the case. However there have only been a handful of Z196+ people identified to date, with a large backlog of orders to be processed, so it is a little early to be too confident about what the results will show one way or another. Based one an examination of the 1000 Genomes project, the person who first identified it there said that he thought Z196 might include about 60% of what is currently P312*. He has also identified several steps of SNPs below Z196, which are not connected to L176.2, and it looks to me like the N/S cluster will be defined by one of these. But only time will tell.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2011, 09:58:45 PM by GoldenHind » Logged
rms2
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« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2011, 08:03:28 PM »

Things could change, but so far it looks like all the Z196* guys belong to the N-S Cluster.

The one guy who is currently Z196+ (and negative for all the downstream stuff except 176.2) but not in the N-S Cluster has not yet been tested for L176.2.

I'm guessing that if he does get tested for L176.2, he will be L176.2+, but I could be wrong.

It is an interesting development. I just knew (and I'm sure all of you did, too) the N-S Cluster had to have at least one new SNP in there somewhere.

Neat how it turned out to be kind of a game changer with regard to P312.



I think it is highly unlikely that Z196 will be restricted to the north/south cluster, as neither L176.2 nor SRY2627 have the distinctive markers of the the n/s cluster. I doubt that signature would have changed with one branch of the family, while remaining with the other. All the descendants should be subject to the same random mutation rates.

It is believed that there are about seven stages of SNPs below Z196(XL176.2), and the current guessing game is which of those stages defines the n/s cluster.

I don't think I said it is restricted to the N-S Cluster. Obviously it's not, since everyone who is L176.2+ is also Z196+.

What I said was that I knew the N-S Cluster had some new SNP connected to it. It probably has another one downstream of Z196, as well.

I also said that thus far (at the time I was looking and wrote that post) all the Z196* guys are in the N-S Cluster. That was true at the time, but it is no longer true, although the one exception is on the fringe of that cluster.

It sounded to me as if you were suggesting that Z196 individuals who were not in the north/south cluster were likely to be L176.2. For the reasons I stated, I don't think that is likely to be the case. However there have only been a handful of Z196+ people identified to date, with a large backlog of orders to be processed, so it is a little early to be too confident about what the results will show one way or another. Based one an examination of the 1000 Genomes project, the person who first identified it there said that he thought Z196 might include about 60% of what is currently P312*. He has also identified several steps of SNPs below Z196, which are not connected to L176.2, and it looks to me like the N/S cluster will be defined by one of these. But only time will tell.

Sorry for the misunderstanding. I was only talking about the one individual, not everyone else, as well.

I don't know how Z196 will turn out. We have had some negative results, as well as a few positives. 60% seems a trifle high to me, but who knows?

Time will tell.
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« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2011, 07:24:47 PM »

We got a bunch of Z196 results today, many of them negative, but quite a few positives, too.

This evening all the positives, except for a couple of guys who were already tested L176.2+, were members of the N-S Cluster.

One M153+ guy tested Z196+, too, but we already knew he would (and M153 is L176.2-, too).
« Last Edit: June 11, 2011, 01:27:23 PM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2011, 08:08:21 PM »

We got a bunch of Z196 results today, many of them negative, but quite a few positives, too.

This evening all the positives, except for a couple of guys who were already tested L176.2+, were members of the N-S Cluster.

Okay, an exception just came: one guy who is Z196+ but not in the N-S Cluster.

But he has not been tested for L176.2 yet.

(I am not meaning that to say anything about Z196 results as a whole.)
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« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2011, 12:35:56 AM »

We got a bunch of Z196 results today, many of them negative, but quite a few positives, too.

This evening all the positives, except for a couple of guys who were already tested L176.2+ (one who is M153+), were members of the N-S Cluster.

Okay, an exception just came: one guy who is Z196+ but not in the N-S Cluster.

But he has not been tested for L176.2 yet.

(I am not meaning that to say anything about Z196 results as a whole.)

If you compare the off-WAMH markers for NS with L176.2 you won't find a lot in common. I'd say chances are good the ancestral haplotype for Z196 is close to WAMH.  If so, almost any P312+ U152- L21- L238- guy could be Z196.
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« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2011, 06:41:57 AM »

We got a bunch of Z196 results today, many of them negative, but quite a few positives, too.

This evening all the positives, except for a couple of guys who were already tested L176.2+ (one who is M153+), were members of the N-S Cluster.

Okay, an exception just came: one guy who is Z196+ but not in the N-S Cluster.

But he has not been tested for L176.2 yet.

(I am not meaning that to say anything about Z196 results as a whole.)

If you compare the off-WAMH markers for NS with L176.2 you won't find a lot in common. I'd say chances are good the ancestral haplotype for Z196 is close to WAMH.  If so, almost any P312+ U152- L21- L238- guy could be Z196.

I count 26+ and 27- for P312* people in the R-P312 and Subclades Project. Hopefully testing for Z196 won't tail of for non NS folks, this one looks set to split P312* clean in two.
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« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2011, 07:14:37 AM »



If you compare the off-WAMH markers for NS with L176.2 you won't find a lot in common. I'd say chances are good the ancestral haplotype for Z196 is close to WAMH.  If so, almost any P312+ U152- L21- L238- guy could be Z196.

Could be, but so far all the Z196+ L176.2- results but one have been from guys who are in the N-S cluster. And that one exception has 448=18.

I haven't been keeping careful track, but the negatives all seem to have 437=15, 448=19, and H4=11 (or nearly so).

When you get to the L176.2+ guys (who are, of course, all Z196+), then you get beyond the N-S Cluster values. Maybe L176.2 is older than whatever SNP it is downstream of Z196 that characterizes the N-S Cluster. Perhaps the N-S Cluster and M153 both sit on the same branch of Z196.

Things could change, of course.

I have no horse in this race. I'm just reporting what I see thus far.

« Last Edit: June 11, 2011, 07:17:06 AM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2011, 01:34:07 PM »

It will be nice when the YCC updates its tree again! (Actually, I mean that.)

Then all the guys who are positive for all the new SNPs will get shiny new designators and become easier to spot.

From my point of view, another boon from YCC updates is that FTDNA goes in and updates Ysearch, and all sorts of new R-L21 guys appear who were invisible before.
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« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2011, 10:12:49 PM »

We got another one who is Z196* but NOT in the N-S Cluster. He has 437=15, 448=17, H4=11.

That's the second Z196* who is not in the N-S Cluster, but by far most of the non N-S Cluster Z196 results we're getting back are negative.
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« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2011, 06:05:53 AM »

We got another one who is Z196* but NOT in the N-S Cluster. He has 437=15, 448=17, H4=11.

That's the second Z196* who is not in the N-S Cluster, but by far most of the non N-S Cluster Z196 results we're getting back are negative.


Looks like Z196 spawned two main lines - L176.2 and N-S and that Z196 (Z196*) so far is otherwise fairly rare.  Kind of reminds me of the way S116 and U106 are very common but L11* is rare.  There is clearly a lot of subtle phasing and patterning in the spread and expansion of S116.  The lack of L11*, Z196* etc seems to suggest to me that only a few lines prospered and many did not and the main survivors in the form of L178.2 and the N-S cluster are due to success that started some centuries later when the L176.2 SNP and the N-S STR pattern had happened.  Certainly variance suggests that both of the latter were  old but not as old as Z196.  We already know L11* is not common and I think we are slowly heading to the possibility that S116* is not common.  If we add to that that Z196* is not common and even the possibility that L176.2* is not common then Even a lot of U152's expansion seems to have been in the form of the younger L2 clade.  I wonder if we have been wrong to see the L11-S116/U106-L21/U152 burst as so crucial.  The more the phylogeny is refined, the less * guys there are and the more it looks to me that the big burst was slightly later, perhaps in the period represented by L2. L21, N-S, SRY 2627 etc.  I cant help but also think that that suggests there could be an SNP between L21 and S116.
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« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2011, 06:54:44 AM »

I cant help but also think that that suggests there could be an SNP between L21 and S116.

According to the guys rifling through the 1000 Genomes project there are now four SNPs that they have yet to find negative in L21+ or positive in P312*.

L21 Structure

L459, Z245, Z260 & Z290

Of these only L459 has had limited testing under L21 and a smattering for P312*, which so far has yet to produce the coveted L21+,L459- or P312+,L459+,L21-.

Presumably somewhere in this lot we are going to find a new structure for the relationship between P312 and L21, and possibly evidence of a bottleneck?
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« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2011, 12:24:11 PM »

I cant help but also think that that suggests there could be an SNP between L21 and S116.

According to the guys rifling through the 1000 Genomes project there are now four SNPs that they have yet to find negative in L21+ or positive in P312*.

L21 Structure

L459, Z245, Z260 & Z290

Of these only L459 has had limited testing under L21 and a smattering for P312*, which so far has yet to produce the coveted L21+,L459- or P312+,L459+,L21-.

Presumably somewhere in this lot we are going to find a new structure for the relationship between P312 and L21, and possibly evidence of a bottleneck?


Interesting.  Thanks for that.  I had vaguely heard of this but had half forgotten.  The lack of SNPs below L21 is less surprising as L21 seems to date to the end of the period of the first burst of SNPs judging by variance and s therefore in line with the rest of S116 on that score.  However, the lack of SNPs between S116 and L21 does seems to be different  and indicates an SNP-gap in comparison to the U152 lines and the Z196 lines.

By the way, am I right in saying that Z196 has divided S116/P312 into three i.e. all S116 people are descended from three men - Mr L21, Mr U152 and Mr Z196?       
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« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2011, 01:49:20 PM »

By the way, am I right in saying that Z196 has divided S116/P312 into three i.e. all S116 people are descended from three men - Mr L21, Mr U152 and Mr Z196?       

No Z196 appears to be cleaving S116/P312* in half, much like L21 did before, however most of the Z196+ for S116/P312* individuals (but not all) are NS folks. There are bunch of SNPs identified in the 1000 Genome project downstream of Z196 which it is thought will help further define NS

P312 Structure
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« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2011, 05:15:14 PM »

By the way, am I right in saying that Z196 has divided S116/P312 into three i.e. all S116 people are descended from three men - Mr L21, Mr U152 and Mr Z196?       

No Z196 appears to be cleaving S116/P312* in half, much like L21 did before, however most of the Z196+ for S116/P312* individuals (but not all) are NS folks. There are bunch of SNPs identified in the 1000 Genome project downstream of Z196 which it is thought will help further define NS

P312 Structure


I will be very interested in what is left of S116*.  Is there a list of negatives and is their any geographical pattern too them?
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« Reply #24 on: June 12, 2011, 06:53:25 PM »

I haven't been keeping track of the negatives, but there have been a bunch of them: almost everyone who has tested and isn't in the N-S Cluster.

As you said, it looks like Z196 is mostly limited to the N-S Cluster, the M153+ guys, and the L176.2+ guys, with very few exceptions.

Regarding the lack of true asterisk men, as in L11*, etc., I don't think anyone should be surprised at that. After all, we are dealing with modern men. Does it seem likely that there would be a true L11* man anywhere, one whose y-dna ancestors haven't experienced a single SNP fork in the road since the first L11+ man?

The asterisk thing isn't important. What's important is tracking where the clades common to each geographic region took the turn down their particular branch of the R1b tree.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2011, 06:55:03 PM by rms2 » Logged

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