World Families Forums - L23 TMRCA ages

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
July 23, 2014, 01:30:50 AM
Home Help Search Login Register

+  World Families Forums
|-+  General Forums - Note: You must Be Logged In to post. Anyone can browse.
| |-+  R1b General (Moderator: rms2)
| | |-+  L23 TMRCA ages
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Go Down Print
Author Topic: L23 TMRCA ages  (Read 845 times)
MHammers
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 347


« on: February 04, 2011, 12:35:29 AM »

Here is a look at L23* using Ken's Generations5 calculator.  Since, it is a large paragroup, there is still alot of uncertainty to consider such as many of these samples may not be L23* in the future.  However, using Vince V.'s Ht 35 project data with only 67 marker members produced some interesting results.

Because of the smaller samples, I made broader geographic categories:
Europe (everything from the Urals west excluding the Caucasus and Turkey)
Non-Europe (Turkey, Caucasus which includes Armenia and a few north Caucasians, other SW Asia and Iran)

Using the interclade method:
Caucasus and Iran plus other SW Asia, G=209/62 or 6270+/-1860 ybp
Caucasus and Europe, G=196/58 or 5880+/-1740 ybp
Caucasus and Turkey, G=188/56 or 5640+/-1680 ybp
Caucasus plus Turkey and other SW Asia plus Iran, G=178/54 or 5340+/-1620 ybp
Europe and Non-Europe, G=163/50 or 4890+/-1500 ybp

Intraclade method:
Caucasus, G=164 or 4920 ybp
All L23*, G=161 or 4830 ybp
All non-Europe, G=154 or 4620 ybp
Europe, G=139 or 4170 ybp
Turkey, G=134 or 4020 ybp

The larger interclade sigmas extend the range from 6130 BC to 1390 BC.  When considering the ancestry of these members, mostly non-European, this doesn't look as much like an early neolithic distribution into SE Europe as it does a 4th millenium BC expansion out of the Caucasus.  The interclade TMRCA's center quite nicely around the time of the Maikop and Kura-Araxes cultures of the Caucasus.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2011, 12:41:01 AM by MHammers » Logged

Ydna: R1b-Z253**


Mtdna: T

Mike Walsh
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2963


WWW
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2011, 02:17:17 PM »

Here is a look at L23* using Ken's Generations5 calculator.  Since, it is a large paragroup, there is still alot of uncertainty to consider such as many of these samples may not be L23* in the future.  However, using Vince V.'s Ht 35 project data with only 67 marker members produced some interesting results.

Because of the smaller samples, I made broader geographic categories:
Europe (everything from the Urals west excluding the Caucasus and Turkey)
Non-Europe (Turkey, Caucasus which includes Armenia and a few north Caucasians, other SW Asia and Iran)

Using the interclade method:
Caucasus and Iran plus other SW Asia, G=209/62 or 6270+/-1860 ybp
Caucasus and Europe, G=196/58 or 5880+/-1740 ybp
Caucasus and Turkey, G=188/56 or 5640+/-1680 ybp
Caucasus plus Turkey and other SW Asia plus Iran, G=178/54 or 5340+/-1620 ybp
Europe and Non-Europe, G=163/50 or 4890+/-1500 ybp

Intraclade method:
Caucasus, G=164 or 4920 ybp
All L23*, G=161 or 4830 ybp
All non-Europe, G=154 or 4620 ybp
Europe, G=139 or 4170 ybp
Turkey, G=134 or 4020 ybp

The larger interclade sigmas extend the range from 6130 BC to 1390 BC.  When considering the ancestry of these members, mostly non-European, this doesn't look as much like an early neolithic distribution into SE Europe as it does a 4th millenium BC expansion out of the Caucasus.  The interclade TMRCA's center quite nicely around the time of the Maikop and Kura-Araxes cultures of the Caucasus.
Thank you.  Very interesting... so R-L23 may have not expanded out of the Caucasus until after 4000 BC or so.

What does the "62" refer to in "G=209/62 or 6270+/-1860 ybp" ?

Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
Mike Walsh
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2963


WWW
« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2011, 02:47:53 PM »

MHammers, once again great work!  Hopefully, this is not out of context, but I'm going to do a little editing to your report so as to just make the key numbers more pronounced.  I'll delete if you feel I've gotten it wrong.
Quote from: MHammers highlights by Mikewww
Europe (...from the Urals west excluding the Caucasus and Turkey)
Non-Europe (Turkey, Caucasus which includes Armenia and a few north Caucasians, other SW Asia and Iran)

Using the interclade method:

Caucasus+Iran+oth. SW Asia ________ 6270 ypb
Caucasus+Europe ___________________ 5880 ybp
Caucasus+Turkey ___________________ 5640 ybp
Caucasus+Turkey+oth. SW Asia+Iran _ 5340 ybp
Europe and Non-Europe _____________ 4890 ybp


Intraclade method:

Caucasus ___ 4920 ybp
All L23* ___ 4830 ybp
Non-Europe _ 4620 ybp
Europe _____ 4170 ybp
Turkey _____ 4020 ybp

The full report from MHammers is two posts below.

I see that R-L23* stands out as clearly youngest in Europe.

As you noted, the R-L23* may be different subclades in different locations but the Caucasus looks to be the oldest specific region.

Generally, SW Asia, as long as you include the Caucasus is the oldest.  If my understanding is correct, the sample sizes are small in Turkey and Iran so there is a chance that somewhere else in this general area may actually be older than the Caucasus. Is that right?  The results agree with the general implication of Myres' study, that M269 (and probably even L23) is not native in Europe.

Is the Europe+Caucasus interclade TMRCA, (5880 ybp), the one you feel may be the best indicator of L23's expansion into Europe?  

If so, I see what you mean about 3880 BC being a little late for L23 to be an early Neolithic entrant into Europe. The follow-on implication is that for grandsons P312's and U106's expansion to have been middle Neolithic in Western Europe is a little harder to believe. A long way to go in not much time, and granted, we have to give for a likely confidence interval so 3880 BC will stretch back into the middle Neolithic.  However, L23 needed to have been on some fast middle Neolithic train to get to France and Poland in time for P312 and U106 to take off.   I think your numbers are helping "triangulate" the possibilities and diminish the odds for the scenario regarding a middle Neolithic expansion for P312 and U106 in Western Europe.  I'm not saying that scenario is ruled out, but I think it just lost a little steam.

The high level summary is we don't have any reason to think the L23 TMRCA was involved in the Neolithic LBK and Cardial Wares.  There is a very good chance (more than 50% anyway) he didn't even exist then. Then how could P312 and U106 been middle Neolithic in Western Europe?

Agree, or not?  I'm just speculating so I need to hear a good counter-argument.

« Last Edit: February 04, 2011, 03:19:43 PM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
MHammers
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 347


« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2011, 04:04:15 PM »

Thank you.  Very interesting... so R-L23 may have not expanded out of the Caucasus until after 4000 BC or so.

What does the "62" refer to in "G=209/62 or 6270+/-1860 ybp" ?



Imo, I think the data favors that hypothesis until some new study throws us a curveball.  62 is the sigma in generations or +/-1860 yrs.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2011, 04:27:40 PM by MHammers » Logged

Ydna: R1b-Z253**


Mtdna: T

MHammers
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 347


« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2011, 04:24:18 PM »

MHammers, once again great work!  Hopefully, this is not out of context, but I'm going to do a little editing to your report so as to just make the key numbers more pronounced.  I'll delete if you feel I've gotten it wrong.

I see that R-L23* stands out as clearly youngest in Europe.

As you noted, the R-L23* may be different subclades in different locations but the Caucasus looks to be the oldest specific region.

Generally, SW Asia, as long as you include the Caucasus is the oldest.  If my understanding is correct, the sample sizes are small in Turkey and Iran so there is a chance that somewhere else in this general area may actually be older than the Caucasus. Is that right?  The results agree with the general implication of Myres' study, that M269 (and probably even L23) is not native in Europe.

Is the Europe+Caucasus interclade TMRCA, (5880 ybp), the one you feel may be the best indicator of L23's expansion into Europe?  

If so, I see what you mean about 3880 BC being a little late for L23 to be an early Neolithic entrant into Europe. The follow-on implication is that for grandsons P312's and U106's expansion to have been middle Neolithic in Western Europe is a little harder to believe. A long way to go in not much time, and granted, we have to give for a likely confidence interval so 3880 BC will stretch back into the middle Neolithic.  However, L23 needed to have been on some fast middle Neolithic train to get to France and Poland in time for P312 and U106 to take off.   I think your numbers are helping "triangulate" the possibilities and diminish the odds for the scenario regarding a middle Neolithic expansion for P312 and U106 in Western Europe.  I'm not saying that scenario is ruled out, but I think it just lost a little steam.

The high level summary is we don't have any reason to think the L23 TMRCA was involved in the Neolithic LBK and Cardial Wares.  There is a very good chance (more than 50% anyway) he didn't even exist then. Then how could P312 and U106 been middle Neolithic in Western Europe?

Agree, or not?  I'm just speculating so I need to hear a good counter-argument.

Thanks. The samples sizes are small.  I think 18 for Turkey, Armenia 15, Iran 4, other SW Asia 5, with Europe the largest around 30+.  This is why I combined them where it made sense geographically.  There are probably more L23's in the various projects, but probably not enough to affect the ages that much.  I agree though, with the data available at 67 markers, there is not much in R1b L23+ that mirrors a neolithic spread.  Interestingly enough, the intraclade for Turkey is the youngest, not what one would expect for early neolithic.  The "center of gravity" is much later. In another thread, I demonstrated G2a3, a known LBK group, to produce older ages more in line with the late UP to the early neolithic.

In regards to Myres, she didn't report any L51 and L11 in SE Europe except for 1 or 2 in Crete, which is an outlier to the rest of the pattern.  There is however, L51 and L11 in Poland, Russia, Ukraine, and Hungary.  Also, she had significant amounts of L23* in the Uralic and Caucasus populations.
Logged

Ydna: R1b-Z253**


Mtdna: T

Mike Walsh
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2963


WWW
« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2011, 06:30:24 PM »

Thank you.  Very interesting... so R-L23 may have not expanded out of the Caucasus until after 4000 BC or so.
What does the "62" refer to in "G=209/62 or 6270+/-1860 ybp" ?
Imo, I think the data favors that hypothesis until some new study throws us a curveball.  62 is the sigma in generations or +/-1860 yrs.
Just to make sure I've got it, those are the one sigma numbers so the ones with the 68% probability confidence interval, right?

I also see you are using the 30 years/generation number.  Any particular reason for that?  I'm okay with that, but the WTYL21 project admin recommended to me that I use 30 yrs/gen for 1000 years and 25 yrs/gen beyond a 1000 years.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2011, 07:06:46 PM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
MHammers
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 347


« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2011, 12:06:14 AM »

I'm not sure about 68% confidence interval or 1 sigma.  Someone more statistically-adept should answer that.

No particular reason for 30 yrs. per generation.  I've seen 25, 30, and 32 used with 30 seeming to be the most common.  I include the generations number so people can adjust accordingly, though using 25 is going to pull L11+ into the Iron age.
Logged

Ydna: R1b-Z253**


Mtdna: T

Pages: [1] Go Up Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


SEO light theme by © Mustang forums. Powered by SMF 1.1.13 | SMF © 2006-2011, Simple Machines LLC

Page created in 0.1 seconds with 17 queries.