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Author Topic: so what does the new study mean for L21?  (Read 12592 times)
Mike Walsh
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« Reply #25 on: August 30, 2010, 10:32:49 PM »

... Certainly I think the picture emerging is that France is likely  split into all the major S116 clades with none dominant and that is the main cause for the fairly low Percentages.  In fact France seems to be the only place where a fairly even split among all the main S116 clades with none dominant is the case.  Again along with variance consideration France keeps standing out as the likely source of the earliest expansion of all the main S116  clades.  Surrounding France in all directions it seems that founder effects skewed this even mix towards the dominance of one clade (Iberia, North Italy, Ireland etc).  
As Alan noted, I don't think we can infer too much about the origins from frequency %'s.  I just went through diversity and variance calculations with Ken N, I think it is wise not to infer too much from them either.  I'm not saying the stats are useless, particularly where they seem to all align, but they are just additional data points.

I think the most important thing is just the finding of any significant (more than a Wild Goose find) presence of a subclade, and then lining the subclades to see who is where.  In that regards, France is certainly a point of origin or a crossroads.  It appears SE France and possibly the Alpine region are critical for P312 subclades.  I think it should be notes that U106 has a presence in the Alpin area as well.  I do think U106 is slighltly older than P312 so even if they came from the same place, U106's trail might be thicker back towards the origin.  Same goes for U152 and L21.  U152 might be older.
Perhaps this is the big new learning for L21+, the fact M222+ may exist enough in Germany beyond Wild Geese type stories.

If that is the case, then L21*  must have been there too and probably either further directly east or further south.

I see now what you are saying.  The France and Germany totals have some M222.  One thing I do not understand is the totals.  How can 'France' or 'Germany' have M222 but the totals that break it down into regions list none?

Personally as M222 appears to be only about a third of the age of L21 etc, I do not really see how the M222 in Germany or France can be native to those areas.  Certainly germline dates for L21 of say 4000 years ago for L21 would only make M222 around the the usual 400AD date , far too late to have come to north Britain and Ireland from France or Germany by any means I can think of.  

I do also wonder again about the figures.  Hobbiest testing has found a lot lot less continental M222 and  think the Santiago de Compostella University paper on French y-DNA only found instances in Paris (hardly surprising) and Tolouse.
I don't understand the Myres study numbers either.  On various forums a lot of people have indicated they also do not understand them.  If Myres' data is consistent, I just haven't figured it out.

Myres does show on Table S4 that M222 is 5.3% of Germany.  That number seems incredible*, but even if it is 1% I think that is a ton to be attributed to randy monks or wild geese.

As far as ages go... it does seem so much depends on them.... it would be great to have TMRCA's that we could reliably count on.  I don't trust TMRCA's in general.

I did go to the DNA project data with its 1900 or so R-L21& folks and 400 or so R-M222's and tried to compare variance and diversity over 25 and 67 markers in various ways.  I keep getting that M222 is 55% to 45% of the age of L21.
If (a big if) R-L21's TMRCA is about 4000 ybp then M222 could easily be around Christ's time incarnate, 0 AD.  Right about in time for Gaulish chieftain to flee Caesar.

Of course R-L21 and R-M222's respective TMRCA's could be 30% either direction without much issue statistically speaking.  30% earlier and we have a La Tene chieften traveling to the Isles.

I need to go back and re-read Jean M's thoughts on M222.

* EDIT: I wonder if this is really R-L21*.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 12:55:09 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #26 on: August 31, 2010, 08:01:02 AM »

Does anyone have that y-dna study of France (Santiago de Compostela)?

Here it is:

http://tinyurl.com/2btr8va
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« Reply #27 on: August 31, 2010, 01:59:38 PM »


Myres does show on Table S4 that M222 is 5.3% of Germany.  That number seems incredible*, but even if it is 1% I think that is a ton to be attributed to randy monks or wild geese.

As far as ages go... it does seem so much depends on them.... it would be great to have TMRCA's that we could reliably count on.  I don't trust TMRCA's in general.

I did go to the DNA project data with its 1900 or so R-L21& folks and 400 or so R-M222's and tried to compare variance and diversity over 25 and 67 markers in various ways.  I keep getting that M222 is 55% to 45% of the age of L21.
If (a big if) R-L21's TMRCA is about 4000 ybp then M222 could easily be around Christ's time incarnate, 0 AD.  Right about in time for Gaulish chieftain to flee Caesar.

Of course R-L21 and R-M222's respective TMRCA's could be 30% either direction without much issue statistically speaking.  30% earlier and we have a La Tene chieften traveling to the Isles.

I need to go back and re-read Jean M's thoughts on M222.

* EDIT: I wonder if this is really R-L21*.


I would be interested in everybody's comments on this book, especially Alan's - as the author thesis is that the disruptions caused by the expanding Roman empire into Gaul, and the expanding Germanic tribes on the other hand, pushed the Belgae out of their homelands. He makes a strong case for some of them sailing up the Shannon and settling near Rathcrogan and establishing an oppidum at Turoe - which he provides evidence that it is the real location of Teamhair, rather than Tara in Meath.

http://www.handofhistory.com/
http://www.handofhistory.com/photos/thumbnails.php?album=1
http://www.handofhistory.com/excerpts.html

I would add to this that I believe that this account is largely correct, and may have resulted in the Connachta line of kings, which spawned the Breifne and Ui Neill kings. I see R-M222 as being from Northern Eastern France/Belgium originally. I see the the Belgae as being West Germanic speaking and being the start of English speaking Britons.

I myself have the most divergent R-M222 in the whole FTDNA Project, and my closest matches are Daltons, then O'Reilly, O'Rourke and other Breifne clans. Dalton is a Norman name in Ireland. So I think that R-M222 may have multiple sources in Ireland, with the largest body being the Ui Neill descendants - which creates an artificial younger age TMRCA.

This would tie up most loose ends, right?
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pconroy
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« Reply #28 on: August 31, 2010, 02:03:31 PM »

BTW, I am Y-Search:
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #29 on: August 31, 2010, 03:02:45 PM »

We've got 924 R-L21* haplotypes of 25 or greater STRs that have Old World MDKA's.  

Below are the diversity numbers at a granular regional level.  I was more granular where we have high numbers of MDKA's.
....
I've tried a view different ways to do variance and diversity calculations and have found some relative results that seem to hold up for R-L21. I am including R-M222 in R-L21 and I'm ignoring regions where there aren't many samples (and I think am on really thin ice.)

I'll just group this by high, medium, low.  Everything is listed in order by general geographic category:

Category I. The Continent & Scandinavia

HIGH
France North & Central

MEDIUM
France North Atlantic
Germany
Iberian Peninsula
Scandinavia North Sea side
Alpine & Cisalpine

LOW
Scandinavia Baltic Sea side
Aquitaine & Pyrenees
Low Countries

Category II. England & Wales

HIGH
England West Midlands
England East Midlands
England Yorkshire and Humbria
England South East

MEDIUM
England North West
England South West
Wales
England London

LOW
England East
England North East

Category III. Scotland

MEDIUM
Scotland East
Scotland Strathclyde

LOW
Scotland South
Scotland North

Category III. Ireland

HIGH
Ireland Munster

MEDIUM
Ireland Leinster
Ireland Connacht
Ireland Ulster

Category IV. R-M222 only

HIGH
England (all)

MEDIUM
Scotland East

VERY LOW
Ireland (All - it doesn't matter what province)
Scotland (All - it doesn't matter what region other than the East)


The shocker for me is that M222's variance in England is actually quite high.  It doesn't seem that young there.

As I noted in a prior post, the English Midlands and Yorkshire have very high variance for R-L21.  I don't think there is any doubt that L21 was in England before it made it to Ireland and Scotland...  either that or repeated immigrations (i.e. Vikings, Normans, Flemish) all made England more of a mix.  Wales seems to have missed some of the thrashing.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 03:05:26 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #30 on: August 31, 2010, 04:30:41 PM »

I have tried to make sense of the Myres data.
If we do a hotspot analysis of Table S4 we get

http://www.box.net/shared/hxp8ie25yv

If we do the same for Table S2 we get

http://www.box.net/shared/3vxrpcxib9

Summarising both tables we get:

Subclade      Frequency      Origin   Age BCE
M269      Ireland      Turkey   11173±2386
L23      Caucasus      Caucasus   10093±1783
M412      Ireland      Danube   8870±1708
L11      England      Germany   9481±3926
P312 (S116)   Iberia      Turkey   8742±1551
L21 (M529)   Ireland      England   8691±1649
M222      Ireland      Ireland   3800±1217

http://www.box.net/shared/f74c09ti18

Possible migration scenarios for M222 gives

http://www.box.net/shared/oqtrep2dng


Of course we than have to interpret it all in the context of archealogy, language and historical record.





« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 04:58:42 PM by Heber » Logged

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #31 on: August 31, 2010, 04:53:31 PM »


Myres does show on Table S4 that M222 is 5.3% of Germany.  That number seems incredible*, but even if it is 1% I think that is a ton to be attributed to randy monks or wild geese.

As far as ages go... it does seem so much depends on them.... it would be great to have TMRCA's that we could reliably count on.  I don't trust TMRCA's in general.

I did go to the DNA project data with its 1900 or so R-L21& folks and 400 or so R-M222's and tried to compare variance and diversity over 25 and 67 markers in various ways.  I keep getting that M222 is 55% to 45% of the age of L21.
If (a big if) R-L21's TMRCA is about 4000 ybp then M222 could easily be around Christ's time incarnate, 0 AD.  Right about in time for Gaulish chieftain to flee Caesar.

Of course R-L21 and R-M222's respective TMRCA's could be 30% either direction without much issue statistically speaking.  30% earlier and we have a La Tene chieften traveling to the Isles.

I need to go back and re-read Jean M's thoughts on M222.

* EDIT: I wonder if this is really R-L21*.


I would be interested in everybody's comments on this book, especially Alan's - as the author thesis is that the disruptions caused by the expanding Roman empire into Gaul, and the expanding Germanic tribes on the other hand, pushed the Belgae out of their homelands. He makes a strong case for some of them sailing up the Shannon and settling near Rathcrogan and establishing an oppidum at Turoe - which he provides evidence that it is the real location of Teamhair, rather than Tara in Meath.

http://www.handofhistory.com/
http://www.handofhistory.com/photos/thumbnails.php?album=1
http://www.handofhistory.com/excerpts.html

I would add to this that I believe that this account is largely correct, and may have resulted in the Connachta line of kings, which spawned the Breifne and Ui Neill kings. I see R-M222 as being from Northern Eastern France/Belgium originally. I see the the Belgae as being West Germanic speaking and being the start of English speaking Britons.

I myself have the most divergent R-M222 in the whole FTDNA Project, and my closest matches are Daltons, then O'Reilly, O'Rourke and other Breifne clans. Dalton is a Norman name in Ireland. So I think that R-M222 may have multiple sources in Ireland, with the largest body being the Ui Neill descendants - which creates an artificial younger age TMRCA.

This would tie up most loose ends, right?


I have not read it but I can tell from the summary and the style that we are dealing with a keen amateur historian and linguist with some training but not an archaeologist or a mainstream historian.  I can see his arguement for the Turoe area being very important and a likely royal site akin to several other major ones in Iron Age Ireland which is exciting.  However, I do not see at all where he gets the link with the Belgae which is the crucial bit.  The Belgae had a distinct material culture and it is unknown in Ireland.  

I cant say a lot as I have not read it but it does look like it is in the tradition of building a narrative pre-history based on place-names and hints from linguistics in the style of TF O'Rahilly.  Irish literature, laws and annals are a unique and wonderful source for a northern European society of the period 500AD onwards for several centuries but I think their value for the preceding period (the Iron Age) is much more limited than seems at first.  Even the period just a few centuries earlier than 500AD represented on Ptolemy's map of the 2nd century AD does not tally much with the tribes and peoples Irish legends represent as occupying Ireland in the Iron Age.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 05:19:23 PM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #32 on: August 31, 2010, 05:13:24 PM »

We've got 924 R-L21* haplotypes of 25 or greater STRs that have Old World MDKA's.  

Below are the diversity numbers at a granular regional level.  I was more granular where we have high numbers of MDKA's.
....
I've tried a view different ways to do variance and diversity calculations and have found some relative results that seem to hold up for R-L21. I am including R-M222 in R-L21 and I'm ignoring regions where there aren't many samples (and I think am on really thin ice.)

I'll just group this by high, medium, low.  Everything is listed in order by general geographic category:

Category I. The Continent & Scandinavia

HIGH
France North & Central

MEDIUM
France North Atlantic
Germany
Iberian Peninsula
Scandinavia North Sea side
Alpine & Cisalpine

LOW
Scandinavia Baltic Sea side
Aquitaine & Pyrenees
Low Countries

Category II. England & Wales

HIGH
England West Midlands
England East Midlands
England Yorkshire and Humbria
England South East

MEDIUM
England North West
England South West
Wales
England London

LOW
England East
England North East

Category III. Scotland

MEDIUM
Scotland East
Scotland Strathclyde

LOW
Scotland South
Scotland North

Category III. Ireland

HIGH
Ireland Munster

MEDIUM
Ireland Leinster
Ireland Connacht
Ireland Ulster

Category IV. R-M222 only

HIGH
England (all)

MEDIUM
Scotland East

VERY LOW
Ireland (All - it doesn't matter what province)
Scotland (All - it doesn't matter what region other than the East)


The shocker for me is that M222's variance in England is actually quite high.  It doesn't seem that young there.

As I noted in a prior post, the English Midlands and Yorkshire have very high variance for R-L21.  I don't think there is any doubt that L21 was in England before it made it to Ireland and Scotland...  either that or repeated immigrations (i.e. Vikings, Normans, Flemish) all made England more of a mix.  Wales seems to have missed some of the thrashing.


To be honest I cant even begin to make any sense of those patterns, particularly when neighbouring parts of the same country have very different variances.  

Mike-when you say that English M222 has high variance and Ireland very low can you elaborate.  That is an astonishing thing.  People usually say Irish M222 dates to around 400AD.  If English M222 is much older then that could provide a very different history.  Proportionally how much more variance of M222 has England got compared to Ireland.  That might allow us to work out a possible date relatively if we assume the normal date given for the Irish M222 is correct.  

« Last Edit: August 31, 2010, 05:23:19 PM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
Mike Walsh
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« Reply #33 on: August 31, 2010, 05:31:50 PM »

.....
Category IV. R-M222 only

HIGH
England (all)

MEDIUM
Scotland East

VERY LOW
Ireland (All - it doesn't matter what province)
Scotland (All - it doesn't matter what region other than the East)

The shocker for me is that M222's variance in England is actually quite high. ....
....
Mike-when you say that English M222 has high variance and Ireland very low can you elaborate.  That is an astonishing thing.  So people usually say Irish M222 dates to around 400AD.  If English M222 is much older then that could provide a very different history.  Proportionally how much more variance of M222 has England got compared to Ireland.  That might allow us to work out a possible date relatively if we assume the normal date given for the Irish M222 is correct. 
The haplotypes for M222 in Ireland, and also in Scotland, appear fairly similar to each other in comparison to the haplotypes in England.  The implication is that the M222 in England are not nearly as close related to each other as the M222 in Ireland and Scotland. 

It could just be the M222 in England are all recent migrations of somewhat  unrelated and scattered M222 people from Scotland and Ireland..  I guess that's possible.  I should go look at the M222 people in England see if they have close GD's with some Irish clusters.  If not, then the English M222 just must have been there a long time.... at least in comparison to the Irish M222.
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« Reply #34 on: August 31, 2010, 05:42:33 PM »


I would be interested in everybody's comments on this book, especially Alan's - as the author thesis is that the disruptions caused by the expanding Roman empire into Gaul, and the expanding Germanic tribes on the other hand, pushed the Belgae out of their homelands. He makes a strong case for some of them sailing up the Shannon and settling near Rathcrogan and establishing an oppidum at Turoe - which he provides evidence that it is the real location of Teamhair, rather than Tara in Meath.

http://www.handofhistory.com/
http://www.handofhistory.com/photos/thumbnails.php?album=1
http://www.handofhistory.com/excerpts.html


Thanks for the recommendation. It sounds like an interesting book.  The beautiful Turoe stone is near the site of my ancestors in Co. Galway.




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« Reply #35 on: August 31, 2010, 05:48:21 PM »


It could just be the M222 in England are all recent migrations of somewhat  unrelated and scattered M222 people from Scotland and Ireland..  I guess that's possible.  I should go look at the M222 people in England see if they have close GD's with some Irish clusters.  If not, then the English M222 just must have been there a long time.... at least in comparison to the Irish M222.

Mike, I read somewhere that according to a recent census, up to 25% of people in Britain claimed Irish ancestry.

"10% of the British population has one Irish grandparent[4] and approximately a quarter claimed some Irish ancestry in one survey (although the report's authors noted that many people were probably "exaggerating".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_diaspora#Britain

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #36 on: August 31, 2010, 05:57:35 PM »

.....
Category IV. R-M222 only

HIGH
England (all)

MEDIUM
Scotland East

VERY LOW
Ireland (All - it doesn't matter what province)
Scotland (All - it doesn't matter what region other than the East)

The shocker for me is that M222's variance in England is actually quite high. ....
....
Mike-when you say that English M222 has high variance and Ireland very low can you elaborate.  That is an astonishing thing.  So people usually say Irish M222 dates to around 400AD.  If English M222 is much older then that could provide a very different history.  Proportionally how much more variance of M222 has England got compared to Ireland.  That might allow us to work out a possible date relatively if we assume the normal date given for the Irish M222 is correct. 
The haplotypes for M222 in Ireland, and also in Scotland, appear fairly similar to each other in comparison to the haplotypes in England.  The implication is that the M222 in England are not nearly as close related to each other as the M222 in Ireland and Scotland. 

It could just be the M222 in England are all recent migrations of somewhat  unrelated and scattered M222 people from Scotland and Ireland..  I guess that's possible.  I should go look at the M222 people in England see if they have close GD's with some Irish clusters.  If not, then the English M222 just must have been there a long time.... at least in comparison to the Irish M222.

Mike

Do you have a calculation or is that an impression only.  If there are figures how much more variance does England have than Ireland - 50% more? twice? three times?
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« Reply #37 on: August 31, 2010, 06:37:57 PM »

Does anyone have that y-dna study of France (Santiago de Compostela)?

Here it is:

http://tinyurl.com/2btr8va

I meant if someone can share the study.
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« Reply #38 on: August 31, 2010, 06:44:21 PM »

Does anyone have that y-dna study of France (Santiago de Compostela)?

Here it is:

http://tinyurl.com/2btr8va

I meant if someone can share the study.

I think I just read it online. I don't have it on my computer.
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #39 on: September 01, 2010, 06:07:09 AM »

Does anyone have that y-dna study of France (Santiago de Compostela)?

Here it is:

http://tinyurl.com/2btr8va

I meant if someone can share the study.

I think I just read it online. I don't have it on my computer.

Argiedude I found it in the French L21 thread.

http://download.journals.elsevierhealth.com/pdfs/journals/1875-1768/PIIS1875176809002340.pdf

A couple of us emailed the authors to see if they could give us more data or even just % breakdowns of the clades but we never got a reply.
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« Reply #40 on: September 01, 2010, 10:27:26 AM »

.....
Category IV. R-M222 only

HIGH
England (all)

MEDIUM
Scotland East

VERY LOW
Ireland (All - it doesn't matter what province)
Scotland (All - it doesn't matter what region other than the East)

The shocker for me is that M222's variance in England is actually quite high. ....
....
Mike-when you say that English M222 has high variance and Ireland very low can you elaborate.  That is an astonishing thing.  So people usually say Irish M222 dates to around 400AD.  If English M222 is much older then that could provide a very different history.  Proportionally how much more variance of M222 has England got compared to Ireland.  That might allow us to work out a possible date relatively if we assume the normal date given for the Irish M222 is correct. 
The haplotypes for M222 in Ireland, and also in Scotland, appear fairly similar to each other in comparison to the haplotypes in England.  The implication is that the M222 in England are not nearly as close related to each other as the M222 in Ireland and Scotland. 

It could just be the M222 in England are all recent migrations of somewhat  unrelated and scattered M222 people from Scotland and Ireland..  I guess that's possible.  I should go look at the M222 people in England see if they have close GD's with some Irish clusters.  If not, then the English M222 just must have been there a long time.... at least in comparison to the Irish M222.
Do you have a calculation or is that an impression only.  If there are figures how much more variance does England have than Ireland - 50% more? twice? three times?
Yes, I have multiple calculations. However, I feel a bit like a Tim Janzen displaying a rash of numbers that don't always line up.  In other words, the results change depending on 25 markers versus 67 markers, sample size, variance versus diversity, etc.  That's why I just put the above into general categories - high, medium, low - where there was an alignment of diversity and variance results.

I probably should put English R-M222 in the Medium (or Med to High) versus the High variance bucket.  However, Irish R-M222 or Scottish R-M222 are both clearly Low to Very Low variance.   All of the adjectives (High, Med, etc.) are in terms relative to R-L21 overall.

The actual calculations indicate English R-M222 ranging from 25% to 70% higher variance than Irish R-M222.  The 70% seems a bit outlandish, but maybe that is just our predisposition on what we thought we new about R-M222.  I did check GD's on some of the English R-M222s versus Irish.  They don't seem to be related in the last 200 years, but beyond that I can't say too much. 

Here are some of the surnames from England: Owsley, Savage, Smith, Kelly, Bell, Ryall, Knowles, Clarkson, Dalton, Howle, John.  Kelly sounds Irish but I don't know about the rest.   I think it is possible that these are all Irish back-migration people but they really could be at least partially just forms of R-M222 that have been in place for a while.  That would make sense given the Myres data of M222 in Germany.   We do have one individual in the FTDNA project data that is from Germany - N14949 Lominac.
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« Reply #41 on: September 01, 2010, 11:31:36 AM »



The actual calculations indicate English R-M222 ranging from 25% to 70% higher variance than Irish R-M222.  The 70% seems a bit outlandish, but maybe that is just our predisposition on what we thought we new about R-M222.  I did check GD's on some of the English R-M222s versus Irish.  They don't seem to be related in the last 200 years, but beyond that I can't say too much. 


Mike,

Below is the data from the Myres paper for M222.
It clearly shows that age and diversity of M222 is higher in Ireland than England.
In addition the frequency for M222 and three of its ancestor clades is highest in Ireland.
(See my analysis of the Myres paper above).
All of the academic papers have clearly indicated that M222 is a Ireland based clade in frequency and diversity and the historical record for a founder effect (Niall) is compelling.

M222   England   6   3.321   1.455   0.090
   Ireland   16   3.865   1.584   0.095

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« Reply #42 on: September 01, 2010, 11:36:07 AM »

Alan, I respect your opinion tremendously so I'm not trying to pick on you, particularly as you are just speculating as I am.  However,  I do want to try articulate part of why I think R-L21 is more of a Bronze Age phenomenon than a Neolithic one.
....  People usually say Irish M222 dates to around 400AD....

Our DNA project MDKA info is at the mercy of individuals' genealogical research and are biased by American immigration source patterns.  However, the SNP and STR haplotype information is what it is and so I feel pretty good about it.  We have almost 2000 R-L21 haplotypes and almost 400 R-M222 haploytypes.  I ran those through several variance calculations and a diversity calculation.  R-M222's age relative to R-L21 should be somewhere in the ranges of these these results: 42%, 46%, 53%, 47% and 57%.  Roughly, R-M222 is about half of R-L21's age.

Most people do assume R-M222 expansion started around 400 AD.  If that is true then R-L21 must have expanded starting around 1200 BC.  Let's give a 30% either direction either way and you get R-L21's expansion starting anywhere from 2200 BC to 200 BC.  

I cite Anatole K. as an example, but only because he is very public in his statements.  Anatole and others who are good with their statistics come out with TMRCA's for R-L21 in the 2000 BC range.   Even FTDNA's (Dr. Hammers) has said R-M269 is 4-8K ybp (midpoint of 4000 BC.) I think Vince V's ht35 discussion showed about 1000 years from R-M269* to R-U106 so we just keep creeping closer to the Bronze Age as the prime time for Western European R-M269 L11+ clades.  The middle to late Neolith seems to be earliest possible carrier for L11+'s expansions.  Of course one has to ask how IE languages got all over the place as well.

Perhaps, the R-L21 is really 8000 ybp, but then R-M222 must be 4000 ybp and then what a lot of people think about Irish population genetics is bunk.. which may be.

...  Perhaps L21 happened in northern France among the descendants of LBK people but after the LBK period.  I think there is evidence in the variance for this.  If L21 happened as it was spreading into France then it would be somewhere between 7000-8000 years old (if I recall correctly).  Now we know that the Neolithic spread to England around 4400BC (new early dated sites) and Ireland by just after 4000BC.  If L21 was up to 8000 years old in France but under 6000 years old in Ireland we would expect French L21 to be a third greater in France than in Ireland. It seems a lot closer than that so  I think the idea floated in this report that the spread of R1b1b2 (including L21) into the isles was due to post-LBK (but LBK-descended) middle Neolithic groups is interesting. ...
« Last Edit: September 01, 2010, 12:15:40 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #43 on: September 01, 2010, 12:04:30 PM »

The actual calculations indicate English R-M222 ranging from 25% to 70% higher variance than Irish R-M222.  The 70% seems a bit outlandish, but maybe that is just our predisposition on what we thought we new about R-M222.  ....
....  Below is the data from the Myres paper for M222.
It clearly shows that age and diversity of M222 is higher in Ireland than England.
In addition the frequency for M222 and three of its ancestor clades is highest in Ireland.
(See my analysis of the Myres paper above).
All of the academic papers have clearly indicated that M222 is a Ireland based clade in frequency and diversity and the historical record for a founder effect (Niall) is compelling.

M222   England   6   3.321   1.455   0.090
      Ireland   16   3.865   1.584   0.095

I have no doubt that M222 is by far most frequent in Ireland and in Scotland so I agree with you on that point.  However, frequency is not necessarily a great indicator of origin or migration path.  I do not know where M222 originated but I disagree that there is a conclusive answer and that it is Ireland.

Here is why I don't think Myres study is at all conclusive on this matter.  Let's compare the data sets that you cite with hobbyist project data.

______________ Myres study ______ DNA Project Analysis
Ireland
Number of Hts _ 16 _______________ 202
England
Number of Hts _ 6 ________________ 10
Num. of STRs __ 10 _______________ 67 and 25


To say that the Myres table you cite contains limited or spotty data is an understatement. On the other hand, the ten English Hts from our DNA projects are not near enough either.  The 202 Irish Hts is a decent number though.

If we suppose that Myres' data is definitive we should consider Table S4.  They have M222 at the following frequencies:
5.3% - Germany
6.3% - France
14.3% - England North

How do you propose that the 5.3% of the German population that is M222 got there?   BTW, the population of Ireland is around 5M while the population in Germany is up in the mid 80M range.  That's a lot of M222.
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« Reply #44 on: September 01, 2010, 01:23:14 PM »

Mike,
The Diaspora of Ireland is about 80M. There are probably more M222 in New York City or Boston than Ireland but that does deter from the fact that that it came from Ireland. I will look at your data closer to investigate any obvious explanations. I do not agree with the Myres age estimates but they are all we have to work with at the moment.
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« Reply #45 on: September 01, 2010, 01:26:37 PM »

Mike

Can you elaborate a little more on what you said recently about M222 having much more variance in England than Ireland and give an indication of relatively how much more.  

I take it that the data for M222 in the continent is far too small to make variance observations.  I have certainly noticed in the past that variance is always low in a tiny sample and get bigger as the sample improves.  
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #46 on: September 01, 2010, 01:41:50 PM »

Mike,
The Diaspora of Ireland is about 80M. There are probably more M222 in New York City or Boston than Ireland but that does deter from the fact that that it came from Ireland. I will look at your data closer to investigate any obvious explanations. I do not agree with the Myres age estimates but they are all we have to work with at the moment.

I do not doubt that a huge majority of M222 in America came with Irish migration.  I also do not doubt a huge majority (although nothing like as big as M222) of L21* comes from the British Isles. That is partly down to percentage in the 'old countries' and also must be reinforced by the sheer amount of immigration from Britain and Ireland to America.  It has never been in doubt that being M222 means in a large majority of cases an Irish ancestor.  It has also never been in doubt that L21 heavily leans towards a British Isles ancestor (although not nearly as much as M222 does). However, most of the discussions in these threads are about the deep time origin of the clades and that is not always (even often?) indicated by frequency.  Phylogeny and variance are the only tools until ancient y-DNA extraction comes through.  These often show that the likely oldest place an SNP happened or first expanded can be a long way from its origin.  This is true for R1b1b2 as a whole and it seems to be true for most of the clades if the various calculations are looked at.  I think possibly the problem with M222 is its hard to get reliable variance figures for outside Ireland.  Mike posted that M222 variance is much higher in England than Ireland and there is also the new issue of a far too high M222 count on the continent to explain away by a few late migrants.

However, that is deep time stuff and it does not take away the fact that a positive M222 result as a genealogical tool seems to very very heavily weight probability towards an Irish origin. 
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« Reply #47 on: September 01, 2010, 02:55:30 PM »

There was large scale migration from the Celtic areas of the Isles into England during the Industrial Revolution:

"After 1840, emigration had become a massive, relentless, and efficiently managed national enterprise. Counting those who went to Britain, between 9 and 10 million Irish men, women, and children emigrated after 1700. The total flow was more than the population at its historical peak in the 1830s of 8.5 million. From 1830 to 1914, almost 5 million went to the United States alone. In 1890 two of every five Irish-born people were living abroad."

"The 2001 UK Census states 869,093 people born in Ireland as living in Great Britain, with over 10% of the population (over 6 million) being of Irish descent."

"10% of the British population has one Irish grandparent."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_diaspora#Britain
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« Reply #48 on: September 01, 2010, 04:07:26 PM »

Mike,
The Diaspora of Ireland is about 80M. There are probably more M222 in New York City or Boston than Ireland but that does deter from the fact that that it came from Ireland. I will look at your data closer to investigate any obvious explanations. I do not agree with the Myres age estimates but they are all we have to work with at the moment.
Heber,

I don't know about estimating M222 in the U.S. but since that is a full ocean away and the was US populated at a much later point in time - much less densely populated area; I'm not sure if the parallel is fully valid.

However, that is not the point.  There is no doubt a ton of M222 in Ireland.  We know of large Irish migrations to the Americas.  

What I'm asking you, is how do you propose that over 4M M222's (5.3%) have shown up in Germany, which was already a densely populated area and not exactly friendly all of the time to westerners?    I may have the answer for you, but I'm not sure it is right.   I believe the Irish Disapora of the 19th century did include migrations into the European Continent as well as the US.  

However, there is a fly in the ointment.  If there was a significant impact, countries like Italy should also have M222 showing up on the radar screen, not just Germany. Besides the British Isles, Myres only shows M222 present at all in France, Germany and also South Sweden (Table S4).  Out of the 394 R-M222 confirmed folks in our DNA projects, outside of the Isles, only Germany and Norway show up.
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« Reply #49 on: September 01, 2010, 04:11:37 PM »

Regarding L-21 in Spain, the result in Santander could be a bit misleading for the area, since it is under 50% of M-269 of total population. If L-21 is just at the same percentage in the Basque Country as it is in Santander it would be close to 10%, and my guess is that the L-21 in Santander got there through the Basque Country, so it must be higher. Too bad the Myres study didn´t test the large Basque sample from Alonso et alii.
In any case, I think it is becoming clear that L-21 is not a rarity in the Basque Country, as I guessed at the time, given that my paternal line has very old roots there. When I got my positive result for L-21 inmediately some people in the DNA forums tried to adjudicate me an Irish/British origin...
« Last Edit: September 01, 2010, 04:13:22 PM by IALEM » Logged

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MDKA Lope de Arriçabalaga, born c. 1390 in Azcoitia, Basque Country

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