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Author Topic: R-M269 article on Holocene era founder effect on Central and West Europe  (Read 22039 times)
argiedude
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« Reply #125 on: September 12, 2010, 06:38:07 PM »

[EDIT 15/09: Better version of this map further below]

I made this map of U152 from the combined SNP results of Myres and Cruciani (and yhrd for Netherlands/Belgium, the only U152 SNP-tested samples in yhrd). I used their data to calculate the fraction of R1b1b2 that was U152+, but then used my own much better (I believe) data for the frequency of R1b1b2 itself. Combining the 2 gives the map below:



http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/9885/u152snptested.gif

By the way, I always do this in these maps, the isoclines are logarithmic. For example, in this map, blue indicates 6% to 30%, red 1.5% to 5%, and white 0% to 1%. If I had used uniform isoclines, blue would be just North Italy, red would be Italy, France, and south England, the rest would all be white.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2010, 07:13:36 PM by argiedude » Logged

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« Reply #126 on: September 12, 2010, 07:48:56 PM »

I used their data to calculate the fraction of R1b1b2 that was U152+, but then used my own much better (I believe) data for the frequency of R1b1b2 itself.
Thank you for preparing this map.  How do you recommend we apply the information?  In other words, what are the implications of what you are displaying?
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« Reply #127 on: September 12, 2010, 09:24:56 PM »

Yes, allow me to add my thanks for this resource argiedude.  Good visuals provide "the big picture" better than mere words or numbers.

Mikewww, I can think of many interpretations but they do not differ much from what is already on the table.  One problem is sampling.  The map of England for example does not tally well with what is seen in the U152 Project and Faux maps.  Also what exactly does for example southeast England mean?  The distribution will vary signifcantly perhaps even in the course of a few miles.  I am aware of an academic study where a large sample of a town in central Norfolk (southeast England) was genotyped and not a single U152 was seen.  However along the coast clearly this is where the hotspots are to be found.
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argiedude
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« Reply #128 on: September 12, 2010, 10:51:13 PM »

what are the implications of what you are displaying?

One significant thing is that it looks completely at odds with an initial urge to explain this haplogroup's distribution as being due to the Roman Empire. Look at how long established colonies of Rome have virtually no U152, like North Africa, Anatolia, Middle East, Egypt, while places never touched by them have notable frequencies, like Sweden, Poland, Czech Rep., and most notoriously, north and east Germany.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2010, 10:51:50 PM by argiedude » Logged

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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #129 on: September 12, 2010, 10:55:41 PM »

Many thanks for your map, Argiedude. As usual, maps say more than words.
1)   R-U152 superimposes itself to R-L51: then the diffusion from Italy happened in the same time, then R-U152 is very ancient.
2)   It isn’t said that Celtic-Italic languages came from Central Europe: they could have come also from Italy.
3)   The first diffusion from Italy is documented by red line: a low percentage everywhere arrived those ancient diffusion.
4)   The core of the diffusion (blue line) is due to many different times: the diffusion of Italic-Celtic languages, many centuries of Roman Empire when Romans (Italians) dominated and peopled these regions.
5)   The highest presence in Spain, that is Catalonia above all, is due to the fact that there were the most part of Roman colonies, to the fact that Catalans come from Provence after the “Reconquista” and Provence was the most Romanized region of France.
6)   Anyway Central Italy, with its 20%, isn’t a periphery of R-U152, but the second high percentage after North Italy, and Central Italy had the coming of Balkan haplogroups more than North Italy.
7)   This is another tessera in favour of the Italian Refugium of R1b (and not only it).
« Last Edit: September 12, 2010, 11:00:35 PM by Maliclavelli » Logged

Maliclavelli


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« Reply #130 on: September 13, 2010, 03:00:49 AM »

I would say that, after Jews (but nobody dares to go against them by what they suffered), Italians are the most hated (and feared) people of the world. We can’t explain otherwise the denial of the evidence.
Anyway, in good and bad fate, we are in a good company.
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Maliclavelli


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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #131 on: September 13, 2010, 08:03:59 AM »

I made this map of U152 from the combined SNP results of Myres and Cruciani (and yhrd for Netherlands/Belgium, the only U152 SNP-tested samples in yhrd). I used their data to calculate the fraction of R1b1b2 that was U152+, but then used my own much better (I believe) data for the frequency of R1b1b2 itself. Combining the 2 gives the map below:



http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/9885/u152snptested.gif

By the way, I always do this in these maps, the isoclines are logarithmic. For example, in this map, blue indicates 6% to 30%, red 1.5% to 5%, and white 0% to 1%. If I had used uniform isoclines, blue would be just North Italy, red would be Italy, France, and south England, the rest would all be white.

There is so much about R1b1b2 and its subclades that just do not nearly fit into simply labels.  The high frequency part of this U152 map cuts across many ancient linguistic barriers including Celtic, Italic, Germanic and also takes in non-IE areas.  

I know there has been many attempts to explain U152 by all sorts of colourful hypotheses but the way in the England its high frequency is confined to the south but not the midlands or north seems to point to an arrival from France to me.  
« Last Edit: September 13, 2010, 08:05:09 AM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
rms2
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« Reply #132 on: September 15, 2010, 09:45:10 AM »

what are the implications of what you are displaying?

One significant thing is that it looks completely at odds with an initial urge to explain this haplogroup's distribution as being due to the Roman Empire. Look at how long established colonies of Rome have virtually no U152, like North Africa, Anatolia, Middle East, Egypt, while places never touched by them have notable frequencies, like Sweden, Poland, Czech Rep., and most notoriously, north and east Germany.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing that U152 is particulary "Roman", but I would like to point out something a little faulty with your argument above. The places you named as "long established colonies of Rome" were actually the most densely populated parts of the Empire and were already densely populated by the time the Romans conquered them. We shouldn't expect that U152 - if it was spread by the Romans - would have made much of a dent in those areas.

I don't think the frequency of U152 in the Swedish sample was particularly "notable", especially given the sample size.
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argiedude
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« Reply #133 on: September 15, 2010, 07:17:09 PM »

EDIT 16-09: A better version of these maps is posted a few posts below in this thread.

I made a map of U152 and U106, based on the SNP-tested results from Myres and Cruciani. The U152 map replaces the version I posted a few days ago here, though there aren't that many changes (I did make a big mistake with West Germany, having confused its result with West France).




U106:



http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/5308/u106snptested.gif




U152:



http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/9885/u152snptested.gif




I think I might make yet another update, if I look at the study from a couple years ago that tested for U106. What's the name of that one? It's the one that produced a map with the frequencies of S29, S21, and all that stuff. EDIT: Done. The U106 map now includes adjustments for Austria and Czech Rep. from Myres 2007 (all other Myres, 2007 samples were repeats with the recent Myres 2010 study).
« Last Edit: September 16, 2010, 06:00:27 PM by argiedude » Logged

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« Reply #134 on: September 15, 2010, 10:57:48 PM »

For Austria you can see Niederstatter et al., but the data are already reported on Wikipedia (R1b haplogroup).
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Maliclavelli


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argiedude
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« Reply #135 on: September 15, 2010, 11:27:22 PM »

For Austria you can see Niederstatter et al., but the data are already reported on Wikipedia (R1b haplogroup).

Thanks, I found it, and it also includes data for U152 for Austria.
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« Reply #136 on: September 16, 2010, 12:20:50 AM »

I made a map of U152 and U106, based on the SNP-tested results from Myres and Cruciani.
I do find it unusual, and has been noted before, that U106 is so heavy in Austria while U152 doesn't show up there, but U152 is heavy in Switzerland and the Italian Alps.   There must be to the fact that U106 is so frequent in Austria but then seems to run into U152 in Switzerland, or the other way around.

Up in Scandinavia, although L21 is found in Sweden, Finland and Denmark, it is at low levels.  Sweden and Denmark seem to have a little more U152 and U106.  On the other hand U152 and U106 don't seem to show up in Norway, which is heavy L21.
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« Reply #137 on: September 16, 2010, 01:04:24 AM »

I think it would be ingenuous to attribute the high percentage of R-U106 in Austria to the German invasion after the fall of the Roman Empire. I invite you all to look at the Cruciani’s maps of his last paper and to remember my theory of the Italian refugium and the exit of R-U106 from Eastwards the Alps and of R-U152 from Westwards. With my friend Francesco Cesaroni, who is R-U106*, I have maintained the hope he is an “ancient” Italian and not a “recent” German and the same hope I maintain for the R-L21* (very ancient) of Argiedude, whose origins are in the Alpine region (Southern lakes: Italy).
« Last Edit: September 16, 2010, 03:43:30 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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« Reply #138 on: September 16, 2010, 03:06:21 AM »

I made a map of U152 and U106, based on the SNP-tested results from Myres and Cruciani. The U152 map replaces the version I posted a few days ago here, though there aren't that many changes (I did make a big mistake with West Germany, having confused its result with West France).




U106:



http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/5308/u106snptested.gif




U152:



http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/9885/u152snptested.gif




I think I might make yet another update, if I look at the study from a couple years ago that tested for U106. What's the name of that one? It's the one that produced a map with the frequencies of S29, S21, and all that stuff. EDIT: Done. The U106 map now includes adjustments for Austria and Czech Rep. from Myres 2007 (all other Myres, 2007 samples were repeats with the recent Myres 2010 study).

It is suspicious that the 'unknown region' U152 percentages for France are far higher than any of the regional French percentages (leaving aside the 'too small' sample for western France).  In fact it kind of looks like the 'unknown region' percentage is well above  the averages of the known regions (leaving out western France).  That doesnt make a lot of sense.   The fact that the U152 total for eastern France i(adjacent to the other high U152 areas) is much lower than the unknown region percentage is mighty odd.   
« Last Edit: September 16, 2010, 03:10:18 AM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #139 on: September 16, 2010, 03:28:22 AM »

I made a map of U152 and U106, based on the SNP-tested results from Myres and Cruciani.
I do find it unusual, and has been noted before, that U106 is so heavy in Austria while U152 doesn't show up there, but U152 is heavy in Switzerland and the Italian Alps.   There must be to the fact that U106 is so frequent in Austria but then seems to run into U152 in Switzerland, or the other way around.

Up in Scandinavia, although L21 is found in Sweden, Finland and Denmark, it is at low levels.  Sweden and Denmark seem to have a little more U152 and U106.  On the other hand U152 and U106 don't seem to show up in Norway, which is heavy L21.

If U106 was brought to Austria by Germanic invasions in the Roman period (and that is a big IF) then it would seem from Myres that they encountered a population whose R1b1b2 section had a big L21 element and a low U152 one. 
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argiedude
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« Reply #140 on: September 16, 2010, 05:58:09 PM »

About the high U106 in Austria and high U152 in the 'unknown' France samples. These are probably just statistical fluctuations. Remember that these results are on the basis of 50 or 100 samples, sometimes less. When I was making a map of the distribution of M81 in Iberia, I found lots of studies of south Portugal. One found 6 M81 out of 49 samples. Another found 6 again, but out of 112 samples, less than half the rate of the previous study. And another found 3 out of 100, half the rate of the previous, and one quarter the rate of the first study. But compiling all these studies, the final result was 5,5% M81, almost identical to the percentage from central Portugal and Andalucia (also after compiling many results for either). By the way, the Austria samples are the same ones from the Myres 2007 study that found a huge amount of U106 in Austria, but out of a sample set of just 23. It was talked about a lot back then when it came out, too. It's just 23 samples. I'll bet Austria's frequency of U106 is a lot lower then what's shown on the map and in line with that of its neighbors.
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argiedude
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« Reply #141 on: September 16, 2010, 06:03:40 PM »

Updated U106 and U152 after addition of Niederstätter results for Tyrol, Austria. I trust there are no more studies of U152/U106, so this is it. And... I made a map of L21 and P312(xL21,U152). Stevo, you got to see this. Total vindication for you.

L21


http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/5751/l21snptested.gif



U106


http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/5308/u106snptested.gif



U152


http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/9885/u152snptested.gif



P312(xL21,U152) [Note that this includes SRY2627]


http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/3839/p312xl21u152snptested.gif


Notice L21's more restricted range relative to U106 and U152. L21's variance is the smallest of these 3. I think Ireland's high rate of L21 is a secondary phenomenon, and that the center mass and origin of L21 was between south England and north and west France. What were the figures (from the Projects) for north France, again? I think about 1/3 of R1b1b2 was coming back L21+? That would be 20% to 22% L21. I think west France is also going to be equally big in L21.

PS: And check this out, made from the blue contours in the maps above:



http://img188.imageshack.us/img188/1994/r1b1b2confluence.gif
« Last Edit: September 16, 2010, 09:52:34 PM by argiedude » Logged

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« Reply #142 on: September 16, 2010, 10:12:42 PM »

About the high U106 in Austria and high U152 in the 'unknown' France samples. These are probably just statistical fluctuations. Remember that these results are on the basis of 50 or 100 samples, sometimes less. When I was making a map of the distribution of M81 in Iberia, I found lots of studies of south Portugal. One found 6 M81 out of 49 samples. Another found 6 again, but out of 112 samples, less than half the rate of the previous study. And another found 3 out of 100, half the rate of the previous, and one quarter the rate of the first study. But compiling all these studies, the final result was 5,5% M81, almost identical to the percentage from central Portugal and Andalucia (also after compiling many results for either). By the way, the Austria samples are the same ones from the Myres 2007 study that found a huge amount of U106 in Austria, but out of a sample set of just 23. It was talked about a lot back then when it came out, too. It's just 23 samples. I'll bet Austria's frequency of U106 is a lot lower then what's shown on the map and in line with that of its neighbors.

The subsequent Neiderstatter study of the Austrian Tyrol reported a similar U106+ frequency as a % of M269 with a much higher N than the Myres et al study. So to date, we have the two studies reporting the same approximate result and the stronger study is tied to a specific region.

The "country only, region unknown" numbers in the latest Myres et al definitely don't match the regional sampling for those same countries for Germany and Switzerland.  The German U106 country percent is well below its regional counterparts, as if some tiny town in the middle of the country had expelled most of its U106 members. You see the reverse with Switzerland and U152 - the country number is significantly higher than the regional ones, so maybe all U152s were encouraged to secretly move to some central Swiss village. If the values were within some reasonable range of error, I'd have some faith in them.  But they are significantly different from the regional values, and I tend to place more faith in the latter because I suspect that (a) purposeful sampling was not used on the small country-only samples, and (b) having four regional samples agree with each other and disagreeing with the lone country sample tends to point to the single sample as the outlier.



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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #143 on: September 17, 2010, 03:49:46 AM »

Updated U106 and U152 after addition of Niederstätter results for Tyrol, Austria. I trust there are no more studies of U152/U106, so this is it. And... I made a map of L21 and P312(xL21,U152). Stevo, you got to see this. Total vindication for you.

L21


http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/5751/l21snptested.gif



U106


http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/5308/u106snptested.gif



U152


http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/9885/u152snptested.gif



P312(xL21,U152) [Note that this includes SRY2627]


http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/3839/p312xl21u152snptested.gif


Notice L21's more restricted range relative to U106 and U152. L21's variance is the smallest of these 3. I think Ireland's high rate of L21 is a secondary phenomenon, and that the center mass and origin of L21 was between south England and north and west France. What were the figures (from the Projects) for north France, again? I think about 1/3 of R1b1b2 was coming back L21+? That would be 20% to 22% L21. I think west France is also going to be equally big in L21.

PS: And check this out, made from the blue contours in the maps above:



http://img188.imageshack.us/img188/1994/r1b1b2confluence.gif

I could live with that L21 map (although I do remain suspicious that it is overlooking an extension of the higher frequency area that links northern France to SW Germany as indicated on the project maps).  If you combine it with the variance results then a model of L21 first expanding in the northern third of France only a short time before it crosses to England is the obvious conclusion.  The area outlined on argiedudes map does essentially correspond to the area of maximum interaction between most parts of the isles and the continent in many periods.  I do like Myres middle Neolithic model whereby the various S116 clades expanded some time after the L11 ancestor had arrived in west in the early Neolithic with the LBK.  Its sort of a third option between the first farmers model and the beaker model.    
« Last Edit: September 17, 2010, 03:53:33 AM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
Heber
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« Reply #144 on: September 17, 2010, 06:14:39 AM »

Updated U106 and U152 after addition of Niederstätter results for Tyrol, Austria. I trust there are no more studies of U152/U106, so this is it. And... I made a map of L21 and P312(xL21,U152). Stevo, you got to see this. Total vindication for you.

L21


http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/5751/l21snptested.gif

U106


http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/5308/u106snptested.gif

U152


http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/9885/u152snptested.gif

P312(xL21,U152) [Note that this includes SRY2627]


http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/3839/p312xl21u152snptested.gif

Notice L21's more restricted range relative to U106 and U152. L21's variance is the smallest of these 3. I think Ireland's high rate of L21 is a secondary phenomenon, and that the center mass and origin of L21 was between south England and north and west France. What were the figures (from the Projects) for north France, again? I think about 1/3 of R1b1b2 was coming back L21+? That would be 20% to 22% L21. I think west France is also going to be equally big in L21.

PS: And check this out, made from the blue contours in the maps above:



http://img188.imageshack.us/img188/1994/r1b1b2confluence.gif

Argiedude,
These are excellent maps and bring the Myres data alive. It would be great if you do the same for L23, M269 and M222. That way we could get a view of M222 and his ancestors back to M269 and the expansion out of Anatolia.
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« Reply #145 on: September 17, 2010, 07:42:28 AM »

I made a map of U152 and U106, based on the SNP-tested results from Myres and Cruciani.
I do find it unusual, and has been noted before, that U106 is so heavy in Austria while U152 doesn't show up there, but U152 is heavy in Switzerland and the Italian Alps.   There must be to the fact that U106 is so frequent in Austria but then seems to run into U152 in Switzerland, or the other way around.

Up in Scandinavia, although L21 is found in Sweden, Finland and Denmark, it is at low levels.  Sweden and Denmark seem to have a little more U152 and U106.  On the other hand U152 and U106 don't seem to show up in Norway, which is heavy L21.

What study said that regarding U152? Certainly not Myres et al, which found very little U152 in its Scandinavian samples and much more L21.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2010, 07:42:53 AM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #146 on: September 17, 2010, 08:04:49 AM »

argiedude -

I don't feel vindicated by your maps and certainly not by anything from Myres et al. I am somewhat puzzled by your L21 map, but I don't have time this morning to compare it to the actual figures from Myres' Table S4.

I think Myres' et al is an unfortunate report. Its authors didn't make much of an effort to obtain a representative sample. I also suspect that something went  wrong somewhere. The German results, for example, are too far out of line with what we have seen through FTDNA testing. We have not had to scour the databases to find the occasional "rare" German L21, which is what Myres et al would lead one to believe. No, Germans have been getting L21+ results on their own pretty regularly, without my having to find and recruit them.

It's sad that Myres may be the last word on the subject for years. I've been waiting anxiously for a study of European y-dna that would include L21. It's heartbreaking that when it finally came it was a sorry thing like Myres et al.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2010, 08:05:23 AM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #147 on: September 17, 2010, 10:15:22 AM »

Argiedude, what should we think about your maps? As the overlapping of haplogroups downstream  R-L11* is in South West France, there is the origin? We should think to a Paleolithic diffusion, when that part of France had the most numerous settlements, but we are before LGM and this is too early also for me, and perhaps P312* of Spain is waiting for being decomposed in many subclades, and L176.2 seems from last data not to be Spanish, but from North France. But we shouldn’t forget that R-L11* and more R-L51* was centered in Italy, also from Myres’ data, and data of Italy (how to forget R1b1*, R-M18 of Sardinia, R1b1b2* also with those with YCAII=17-23, the pending R-L150- of Romitti, my R1b1b2a (S136+), R1b1b2a/DYS385=11-11 (Balkan but perhaps rooted in Italy)), are all darkened by the high percentage of R-U152, that (it is noteworthy) has different percentage in Italy but everywhere is about 50% of R1b, demonstrating an ancient uniform diffusion.

Anyway: Italy France or Spain, as long as they don’t speak any more of Anatolia, Middle East or elsewhere.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2010, 10:37:26 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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« Reply #148 on: September 17, 2010, 10:57:55 AM »

One eye opener about Myres et al is just how large a sample would have to be to avoid hitting local peculiarities or missing patchy concentrations etc and distorting the picture.  I actually think its probably not realistic to expect a Europe-/SW Asia study to that level as surely it would require many many thousands of samples.  Perhaps the best approach would be in-depth studies on a country by country basis.  Even the Santiago de Compostella university seems to have taken one city to represent each major division of France.  There are hints in the Myres report that S116 clade frequency could be very dotty with localised peaks.    Personally I have more faith in the project map than Myres et al.
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« Reply #149 on: September 17, 2010, 12:00:49 PM »

One eye opener about Myres et al is just how large a sample would have to be to avoid hitting local peculiarities or missing patchy concentrations etc and distorting the picture.  I actually think its probably not realistic to expect a Europe-/SW Asia study to that level as surely it would require many many thousands of samples.   ......  There are hints in the Myres report that S116 clade frequency could be very dotty with localised peaks.    Personally I have more faith in the project map than Myres et al.
Agreed.  Although our projects have an American immigration source bias, they are more generally random than these studies.  I don't blame the studies, but then they should put all kinds of asterisks and notes with caveats about not being a full cross-sectional sampling.  For instance, they should not list a frequency for a whole country without doing a full representative cross-section of the country.  All of the haplotype detail and locations should be published.  Some studies do, some don't.

... It's sad that Myres may be the last word on the subject for years. ....
I don't think it will be.  I think that as more people test for downstream SNP's, particularly from the continent, patterns will emerge, just as they have for the upstream "ht35" parts of R-M269.  Whether an academician picks up the story and runs with or not, I don't know.... but the die will be cast and be apparent.

BTW, speaking of the "die is cast", I think that is the case for M222 in England. I've found a few more Englishmen and their relative variance over Ireland just keeps growing.  I'll run that on another topic.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2010, 12:16:35 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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