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GoldenHind
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« Reply #100 on: July 29, 2010, 06:42:10 PM »

Rich bringing up P310 got me to thinking that it makes an excellent analogy to the way I view P312, and to a lesser extent U106.

Is P310 Celtic or Germanic?

Assuming there is a correlation between some P310 subclades with Celts or Germanics, does this establish that P310 must be one or the other?

If so, can one make that determination by counting up whether it is more common today in old Germanic lands or old Celtic lands?

I think most would agree that P310 is a pre-Celtic, pre-Germanic marker which existed in Europe before those cultures evolved. I doubt anyone would contend that a correlation of some of its subclades with Celts or Germanics, or counting up its presence today in old Celtic or Germanic lands, proves that P310 must have been one or the other, even as a generalization.

This is exactly how I look at P312, and to a lesser extent, U106.
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rms2
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« Reply #101 on: July 29, 2010, 08:05:02 PM »


. . .

Which is more likely, that P312 attained an apparent majority status in Germany solely due to the incorporation of Celts during the Iron Age and later migration, or that P312 had a strong presence amongst the Germanic speaking peoples dating to the Nordic Bronze Age?


I don't know, but I think it is entirely possible that there were enough Celts in Germany to account for the majority of German R1b1b2 lines, yes. I could be wrong, but I believe historically the southern and western parts of Germany have generally always been the most populous, and those were precisely the areas inhabited by Celts.

I used to teach German (but I am really rusty now), and I recall reading that High German (Hochdeutsch) actually shows signs of Celtic influence, whereas English is regarded as not showing much Celtic influence at all, even though we know what is now England was lousy with Celts.

As I recall from reading Gerhard Herm's The Celts, that German author considered the Celtic component to be the biggest part of what went into the German mix. He could have been wrong, I suppose.

Regarding the figures from Myres et al that you cited, I wouldn't disregard the P310- element in Germany, which would probably account for at least some of that xU106 stuff, enough to account for a few percent anyway.

If the large portion of P312 present in Germany today is solely due to the incorporation of Celtic people to the west and south, I would expect to see significant differences in the Myres' results in Denmark. They just aren't that different. The amount of U106 (including U198) in Germany, stated as a percentage of M269, is 47.6%, only increasing to 51.3% in Denmark. The percentage of M269 (XU106,U198) in Germany is 52.4%, only decreasing to 48.7% in Denmark.

I don't think a case can be made for the massive incorporation of Celtic people in Denmark. As far as I know, most of the "modern"migration into Denmark has come from northern Germany.

You used the word "solely"; I did not. I said I think it is possible that the majority of German R1b1b2 lines are Celtic in origin.

I still suspect the cline in U106 from North Germany to Denmark is more uniform than the cline of P312 from Germany to Denmark. In other words, I suspect there is markedly less P312 in Northern Germany than in Southern Germany and more U106 in Northern Germany than in Southern Germany. That may not be readily apparent from projects with confusing geographic categories or no geographic categories, but I think it is apparent from haplotype comparisons, like the following from Ken Nordtvedt.

Quote from: Ken Nordtvedt
I have just copied and pasted my mid-2004 message below.

A = 24, 11, 13
B = 24, 10, 13
C = 23, 11, 13
at 390,391,392

Haplotype A is the truncated Atlantic Modal Haplotype. I quote below the
percentages these three forms contribute to the "R1b" populations (of their
summed contributions) by region in Europe from the YHRD database.

Spain --- 67% --- 22% --- 11% in order A,B,C
France --- 61% --- 26% --- 13%

Ireland --- 57% --- 25% --- 18%
London --- 53% --- 28% --- 19%

Rhine --- 51% --- 27% --- 22%
South Germania --- 48% --- 24% --- 28%
Southeast Germania --- 44% --- 22% --- 35%
Northeast Germania --- 44% --- 25% --- 31%

Anglo-Saxony --- 40% --- 20% --- 40% [Denmark, Netherlands, NW Germania]

Scandinavia --- 51% --- 20% --- 29%
(Finland hardly got any R1bs, so this is mainly Norway + Sweden)

Eastern Europe --- 51% --- 21% --- 28%

North Italia --- 49% --- 26% --- 25%

Some in haplotypes A and B will be U106+, but the bulk of those in haplotype C in Germany and Scandinavia will be U106+.

You can see that the frequency of haplotype C in what Ken called "Anglo-Saxony" was 40%.

All one has to do is glance at the R1b-U106 project to see how prevalent 390=23 is among U106ers.

This Rootsweb post, while a bit dated, mentions a comparison of 1,866 67-marker R1b1b2 haplotypes relative to 390=23 and 492=13 and 492=12. 56% of the 492=13 group had 390=23, while only 7% of the 492=12 group had 390=23.

So, while 390=23 is not an infallible predictor of U106+ status, it is a reasonable predictor, especially in those areas where U106 is known to have a strong presence.

It is not true that all those with 390=23 and 492=13 belong to the so-called Frisian cluster; many of them do not.

I don't think a sizeable P312 component in Denmark or the rest of Scandinavia means that Germany's P312 isn't mostly Celtic. We know from history and archaeology that the Celts were strongly represented in Germany, especially in the South and West, where P312 is strongest. It is possible that at least part of the P312 in Scandinavia got there in the Bronze Age with the Beaker Folk, at least some of whom may have spoken Proto-Celtic. Assuming for the moment and for the sake of argument that the Beaker Folk were mostly P312, they would have been a decided minority in Scandinavia, since R1b1b2 as a whole is only about 25-30% of the y-dna there. Their early Celtic speech, if they had one, may simply have not taken hold and succumbed to early Germanic.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2010, 08:14:47 PM by rms2 » Logged

rms2
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« Reply #102 on: July 29, 2010, 08:22:28 PM »

Actually, that is incorrect.

The L159 Ysearch ID that you mentioned does not abide by those values I gave you earlier.

Again, here they are:

DYS389i and ii: 14-30
DYS437/448: 15-18
DYS442: 11
DYS446:14

One must match the FULL sequence in order to be pursued for recruitment. That is why the SMGF matches do in fact match the modal perfectly. Also, I found that some matches in SMGF have corollaries at FTDNA: the same surname matches in the FTDNA database.

What is the full sequence? Those values above, with 14 at 389i and 16 (the R1b1b2 modal) at 389ii? I know you have to have at least eight markers to run a haplotype in Ysearch. What are the other two you are using?

Can you give me a Ysearch entry for your L159 modal?
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rms2
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« Reply #103 on: July 29, 2010, 08:50:21 PM »

Actually, that is incorrect.

The L159 Ysearch ID that you mentioned does not abide by those values I gave you earlier.

Again, here they are:

DYS389i and ii: 14-30
DYS437/448: 15-18
DYS442: 11
DYS446:14

One must match the FULL sequence in order to be pursued for recruitment. That is why the SMGF matches do in fact match the modal perfectly. Also, I found that some matches in SMGF have corollaries at FTDNA: the same surname matches in the FTDNA database.

What is the full sequence? Those values above, with 14 at 389i and 16 (the R1b1b2 modal) at 389ii? I know you have to have at least eight markers to run a haplotype in Ysearch. What are the other two you are using?

Can you give me a Ysearch entry for your L159 modal?

I ran the key markers along with 390=24 and 19=14 (to get the eight markers needed) in Ysearch and did not get a single verifiable non-British Isles match.

If it is UKCMV, which is the "DYS464x ccgg Project Modal", and much the same as BFHRM, the "Leinster (Lagin) Modal", the only folks I could find reasonably close all had British Isles surnames.







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rms2
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« Reply #104 on: July 29, 2010, 09:04:24 PM »

Rich bringing up P310 got me to thinking that it makes an excellent analogy to the way I view P312, and to a lesser extent U106.

Is P310 Celtic or Germanic?

Assuming there is a correlation between some P310 subclades with Celts or Germanics, does this establish that P310 must be one or the other?

If so, can one make that determination by counting up whether it is more common today in old Germanic lands or old Celtic lands?

I think most would agree that P310 is a pre-Celtic, pre-Germanic marker which existed in Europe before those cultures evolved. I doubt anyone would contend that a correlation of some of its subclades with Celts or Germanics, or counting up its presence today in old Celtic or Germanic lands, proves that P310 must have been one or the other, even as a generalization.

This is exactly how I look at P312, and to a lesser extent, U106.

P312 and U106 are both P310+, so, if one is mostly Celtic, and the other mostly Germanic, beginning with the time those designations begin to mean anything, then the answer is that P310 is both.

The case with those who are currently P310* (and there are some in Germany) is similar to that for R-P312*. Their ancestor(s) broke off from the P310 line at some point upstream of both P312 and U106, but that doesn't mean they don't belong to some as-yet-undiscovered parallel P310+ subclade. We just don't know what that subclade is (or subclades are). Until we do, it's difficult to say what the paragroup currently known as P310* is. I haven't followed its distribution as a whole.

I am also not aware of the age estimates for P310, but it could predate the Celtic and Germanic languages and go back to Proto-Indo-European, or, if P310 was non-Indo-European, to the time before our ancestors learned to speak some form of Indo-European.

It is not necessary to be able to trace the Celtic/Germanic branches of the Indo-European language family back to genetic Adam to be able to generalize and say that the distribution of P312 is a good general fit for the Celts and that of U106 is a good general fit for the Germans.
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NealtheRed
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« Reply #105 on: July 29, 2010, 09:58:42 PM »

Actually, that is incorrect.

The L159 Ysearch ID that you mentioned does not abide by those values I gave you earlier.

Again, here they are:

DYS389i and ii: 14-30
DYS437/448: 15-18
DYS442: 11
DYS446:14

One must match the FULL sequence in order to be pursued for recruitment. That is why the SMGF matches do in fact match the modal perfectly. Also, I found that some matches in SMGF have corollaries at FTDNA: the same surname matches in the FTDNA database.

What is the full sequence? Those values above, with 14 at 389i and 16 (the R1b1b2 modal) at 389ii? I know you have to have at least eight markers to run a haplotype in Ysearch. What are the other two you are using?

Can you give me a Ysearch entry for your L159 modal?

I ran the key markers along with 390=24 and 19=14 (to get the eight markers needed) in Ysearch and did not get a single verifiable non-British Isles match.

If it is UKCMV, which is the "DYS464x ccgg Project Modal", and much the same as BFHRM, the "Leinster (Lagin) Modal", the only folks I could find reasonably close all had British Isles surnames.









Duoos tested with FTDNA, but he has not posted his haplotype due to privacy reasons. Run the same search in SMGF, and tell me what continentals come up matching the signature.

The only ones are Scandinavians. Hmm, this is probably because Sorenson has a better sample from folks with Scandinavian ancestry than FTDNA. You always pointed out the fallacy of sampling bias in the FTDNA database.

You will also find some British matches from the counties of Lincolnshire (Kirk), Norfolk (Rix), and Durham (Mattinson). To be honest, the Durham match is not surprising because many L159+ folks have ancestry in Northern England - from Cumbria to Northumberland.

Actually, I think there are more samples who match the modal from Yorkshire and the East Midlands than any other place in England. Many of them have names ending in '-son' or inherit place names like Tharpe or Latham.
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NealtheRed
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« Reply #106 on: July 29, 2010, 10:03:04 PM »

Rich bringing up P310 got me to thinking that it makes an excellent analogy to the way I view P312, and to a lesser extent U106.

Is P310 Celtic or Germanic?

Assuming there is a correlation between some P310 subclades with Celts or Germanics, does this establish that P310 must be one or the other?

If so, can one make that determination by counting up whether it is more common today in old Germanic lands or old Celtic lands?

I think most would agree that P310 is a pre-Celtic, pre-Germanic marker which existed in Europe before those cultures evolved. I doubt anyone would contend that a correlation of some of its subclades with Celts or Germanics, or counting up its presence today in old Celtic or Germanic lands, proves that P310 must have been one or the other, even as a generalization.

This is exactly how I look at P312, and to a lesser extent, U106.

P312 and U106 are both P310+, so, if one is mostly Celtic, and the other mostly Germanic, beginning with the time those designations begin to mean anything, then the answer is that P310 is both.

The case with those who are currently P310* (and there are some in Germany) is similar to that for R-P312*. Their ancestor(s) broke off from the P310 line at some point upstream of both P312 and U106, but that doesn't mean they don't belong to some as-yet-undiscovered parallel P310+ subclade. We just don't know what that subclade is (or subclades are). Until we do, it's difficult to say what the paragroup currently known as P310* is. I haven't followed its distribution as a whole.

I am also not aware of the age estimates for P310, but it could predate the Celtic and Germanic languages and go back to Proto-Indo-European, or, if P310 was non-Indo-European, to the time before our ancestors learned to speak some form of Indo-European.

It is not necessary to be able to trace the Celtic/Germanic branches of the Indo-European language family back to genetic Adam to be able to generalize and say that the distribution of P312 is a good general fit for the Celts and that of U106 is a good general fit for the Germans.

Rich,

I appreciate your wisdom on this, and I concur that you have a better understanding of early R1b1b2 than me. But I will say that it is equally (if not more so) plausible that when P310 split, some P312* went north and became Germanic, while others moved south into the Celto-Italic world.

Like GoldenHind said, I just don't see how R1b1b2 in Scandinavia can be so clear cut. Both P312 and U106 have a strong presence there, with P312 holding a majority in Scandinavia overall.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2010, 10:03:26 PM by NealtheRed » Logged

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rms2
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« Reply #107 on: July 30, 2010, 08:01:21 AM »

I never said P312 was 100% Celtic and nothing but. It's obvious to even the casual observer that it's not.

I said it is possible to generalize and say that, in general, the distribution of P312 as a whole is a pretty good fit for the Celts, while the distribution of U106, in general, is a better fit for the Germans.

First off, it is possible to go from Celtic to Germanic or the reverse in a very short time, since those are ethno-linguistic terms and not things that are absolute and eternally immutable. A tribe that was essentially an extended family group could be solidly P312 in its y-dna, speak Celtic and worship the Celtic gods in great-great-grandpa's day and yet be fully Germanic a few generations later. The same could be true, in reverse, of a tribe that was speaking Germanic in great-great-grandpa's day.

Strictly speaking, P312 is a y-dna SNP that represents a major division of P310, not an ethno-linguistic group. The same is true of U106. So, if one took a P312+ baby and dropped him in Tokyo to be raised as a Japanese, he would be Japanese. Genetically he wouldn't be much like the other Japanese, but linguistically and culturally he would be.

So, this, for me anyway, is not about specific individual results or exceptions. It is about generalizing and finding things that are true of the big picture.

If we cannot do that, if we must say that y-dna in Europe is such a total hodge-podge that there aren't any recognizable clines in the distribution of y haplogroups, then "Deep Ancestry" is pretty much a waste of time, and one thing is pretty much the same as another. One cannot say, for example, that R1a in Europe is generally Slavic because - by gum! - there are a few R1as here and there in Scotland.

I think it is possible to generalize, as long as one realizes that is what is being done. It is possible to have a general rule or true statement about a thing without necessarily being able to explain all its particulars and exceptions.

There is a fair amount of P312 in Scandinavia apparently. It doesn't make sense to use it to explain the vast of bulk of the rest of P312, which is centered squarely in the old Celtic homelands. It might make sense, however, to look for an answer to the Scandinavian P312 question where the vast bulk of the rest of P312 resides.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2010, 08:04:41 AM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #108 on: July 30, 2010, 08:20:27 AM »

. . .

Run the same search in SMGF, and tell me what continentals come up matching the signature . . .


Okay, I did. I got one continental hit, and it was to a Scandinavian with the ancestral surname(s) Sedeniussen/Hansen. That was a single continental hit in 7 pages of British Isles hits, and that in a database with a large LDS component of Scandinavian ancestry.

So, for me, I got all British Isles surnames in Ysearch and a single Scandinavian hit in SMGF in 7 pages, the rest of which were British Isles surnames.

 
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NealtheRed
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« Reply #109 on: July 30, 2010, 09:52:50 AM »

. . .

Run the same search in SMGF, and tell me what continentals come up matching the signature . . .


Okay, I did. I got one continental hit, and it was to a Scandinavian with the ancestral surname(s) Sedeniussen/Hansen. That was a single continental hit in 7 pages of British Isles hits, and that in a database with a large LDS component of Scandinavian ancestry.

So, for me, I got all British Isles surnames in Ysearch and a single Scandinavian hit in SMGF in 7 pages, the rest of which were British Isles surnames.

 

Ok, good! Sedeniussen is actually a close match to our Duoos L159+, and his MDKA is from Troms in the far north. If you put in those seven values I told you about earlier, there are actually two other continentals in SMGF (both Scandinavians) that match perfectly, along with other British matches (mostly from Northern or Eastern England) and Irish matches (mostly from Dublin or coastal Leinster).

One is a Dane (Jorgensen) whose MDKA is from Aalborg, and the other is a Swede (Palsson) with ancestry from Kristianstad. What is interesting about the latter two Scandinavian matches is both have ancestry in historically Danish lands. Kristianstad is in Scania (Southern Sweden) and Aalborg is in North Jutland.

You're right that I will need more matches, but to find samples in different parts of Scandinavia is a good chance that more will be found. I am currently working with another Norwegian who lives in Troms and is a close match to a number of L159 group members.

We shall see.
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« Reply #110 on: July 30, 2010, 10:15:06 AM »

What seven other values?

I ran the 6 you gave me plus 390=24 and 19=14 in order to have the eight markers needed.

In SMGF, I got one continental, Sedeniussen, and a boatload, 7 pages worth, of British Isles surnames. In Ysearch I got another boatload of British Isles surnames but not a single continental, not even one.

If the TMRCA of L159 is indeed medieval, and if it continues to be overhwhelmingly British with but a few odd Scandinavians here and there, then it won't make much sense to argue that it was brought to the British Isles by Norwegian Vikings and settled there as a Scandinavian L21 island in a sea of otherwise British L21.

The medieval TMRCA and the limited Scandinavian presence combine to make the case for the Viking Era slave trade, among other, later, possibilities, it seems to me.

And I hate to even mention the Viking Era slave trade, but I don't think you can avoid it in every case.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2010, 10:17:05 AM by rms2 » Logged

NealtheRed
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« Reply #111 on: July 30, 2010, 01:18:31 PM »

What seven other values?

I ran the 6 you gave me plus 390=24 and 19=14 in order to have the eight markers needed.

In SMGF, I got one continental, Sedeniussen, and a boatload, 7 pages worth, of British Isles surnames. In Ysearch I got another boatload of British Isles surnames but not a single continental, not even one.

If the TMRCA of L159 is indeed medieval, and if it continues to be overhwhelmingly British with but a few odd Scandinavians here and there, then it won't make much sense to argue that it was brought to the British Isles by Norwegian Vikings and settled there as a Scandinavian L21 island in a sea of otherwise British L21.

The medieval TMRCA and the limited Scandinavian presence combine to make the case for the Viking Era slave trade, among other, later, possibilities, it seems to me.

And I hate to even mention the Viking Era slave trade, but I don't think you can avoid it in every case.

I apologize for the misinformation. I looked at the e-mail from Earl Beaty again, and he stated that the TMRCA was applied to the ancestor of the Beatty Project, not those in the L159 Project.

So the various haplotypes (especially the high variation in the Scandinavian ones) could well support the possibility of an older L159 in Scandinavia.

Here are the seven values for the search:

DYS389i/ii, DYS392: 14-13-30
DYS437/448: 15-18
DYS442: 11
DYS446: 14

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« Reply #112 on: July 30, 2010, 01:19:55 PM »

What seven other values?
If the TMRCA of L159 is indeed medieval, and if it continues to be overhwhelmingly British with but a few odd Scandinavians here and there, then it won't make much sense to argue that it was brought to the British Isles by Norwegian Vikings and settled there as a Scandinavian L21 island in a sea of otherwise British L21.

Remember, L159 is a VERY small part of L21 in Britain and Ireland. And, it only comes up in certain places...
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« Reply #113 on: July 30, 2010, 01:34:57 PM »

I can't believe this.

As I posted the last message, the Norwegian from Troms I was working with just joined the L159 Project, and he matches the modal!!

His surname is Holmang, ancestral Olsson. Someone has a sense a humor apparently!
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« Reply #114 on: July 30, 2010, 09:59:46 PM »






Quote from: Ken Nordtvedt
I have just copied and pasted my mid-2004 message below.

A = 24, 11, 13
B = 24, 10, 13
C = 23, 11, 13
at 390,391,392

Haplotype A is the truncated Atlantic Modal Haplotype. I quote below the
percentages these three forms contribute to the "R1b" populations (of their
summed contributions) by region in Europe from the YHRD database.

Spain --- 67% --- 22% --- 11% in order A,B,C
France --- 61% --- 26% --- 13%

Ireland --- 57% --- 25% --- 18%
London --- 53% --- 28% --- 19%

Rhine --- 51% --- 27% --- 22%
South Germania --- 48% --- 24% --- 28%
Southeast Germania --- 44% --- 22% --- 35%
Northeast Germania --- 44% --- 25% --- 31%

Anglo-Saxony --- 40% --- 20% --- 40% [Denmark, Netherlands, NW Germania]

Scandinavia --- 51% --- 20% --- 29%
(Finland hardly got any R1bs, so this is mainly Norway + Sweden)

Eastern Europe --- 51% --- 21% --- 28%

North Italia --- 49% --- 26% --- 25%

Some in haplotypes A and B will be U106+, but the bulk of those in haplotype C in Germany and Scandinavia will be U106+.

You can see that the frequency of haplotype C in what Ken called "Anglo-Saxony" was 40%.

All one has to do is glance at the R1b-U106 project to see how prevalent 390=23 is among U106ers.

This Rootsweb post, while a bit dated, mentions a comparison of 1,866 67-marker R1b1b2 haplotypes relative to 390=23 and 492=13 and 492=12. 56% of the 492=13 group had 390=23, while only 7% of the 492=12 group had 390=23.

So, while 390=23 is not an infallible predictor of U106+ status, it is a reasonable predictor, especially in those areas where U106 is known to have a strong presence.

It is not true that all those with 390=23 and 492=13 belong to the so-called Frisian cluster; many of them do not.


I'm sorry, but I don't find these statistics very convincing as proof of U106 dominance in northern Germany. Firstly, as you acknowledge, the 23,10 combination is also found in P312. Secondly, the statistics only include two of several different R1b combinations at those markers, and thus exclude part of R1b. Nor are all of U106 23,10. I would estimate only about half of the U1096 project had that signature, and the only one in the L1 who project did was specifically noted not to be L1. The other two signatures are common in both P312 and U106.

But putting those issues aside, even if one accepts 23,10 as a reasonable stand in for U106, the statistics still don't prove much. "North Germania" is not listed separately, but lumped together with Denmark and the Netherlands. The latter is well known to be the hotspot for U106, and could well be skewing the results. There are some other results which appear improbable if 23,10 is a reasonable facsimilie of U106. It is only 29% of Sweden and Norway. Southeast Germany has a higher percentage than northeast Germany, where it is dwarfed by the other two signatures. If valid, the statistics show a dominance only in the western portion of northern Germany, and not in the eastern portion of the north. Finally Ireland comes in at 18%. Is it believable that nearly 1 in 5 males in Ireland is U106?

I know this sort of datamining Ken used to do often led to interesting results, but I can't consider this as convincing proof that U106 far outnumbers P312 in north Germany.
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« Reply #115 on: July 31, 2010, 01:59:32 AM »

Quote from: Ken Nordtvedt
I have just copied and pasted my mid-2004 message below.

A = 24, 11, 13
B = 24, 10, 13
C = 23, 11, 13
at 390,391,392

Haplotype A is the truncated Atlantic Modal Haplotype. I quote below the
percentages these three forms contribute to the "R1b" populations (of their
summed contributions) by region in Europe from the YHRD database.

Spain --- 67% --- 22% --- 11% in order A,B,C
France --- 61% --- 26% --- 13%

Ireland --- 57% --- 25% --- 18%
London --- 53% --- 28% --- 19%

Rhine --- 51% --- 27% --- 22%
South Germania --- 48% --- 24% --- 28%
Southeast Germania --- 44% --- 22% --- 35%
Northeast Germania --- 44% --- 25% --- 31%

Anglo-Saxony --- 40% --- 20% --- 40% [Denmark, Netherlands, NW Germania]

Scandinavia --- 51% --- 20% --- 29%
(Finland hardly got any R1bs, so this is mainly Norway + Sweden)

Eastern Europe --- 51% --- 21% --- 28%

North Italia --- 49% --- 26% --- 25%

Some in haplotypes A and B will be U106+, but the bulk of those in haplotype C in Germany and Scandinavia will be U106+.

You can see that the frequency of haplotype C in what Ken called "Anglo-Saxony" was 40%.

All one has to do is glance at the R1b-U106 project to see how prevalent 390=23 is among U106ers.

This Rootsweb post, while a bit dated, mentions a comparison of 1,866 67-marker R1b1b2 haplotypes relative to 390=23 and 492=13 and 492=12. 56% of the 492=13 group had 390=23, while only 7% of the 492=12 group had 390=23.

So, while 390=23 is not an infallible predictor of U106+ status, it is a reasonable predictor, especially in those areas where U106 is known to have a strong presence.

It is not true that all those with 390=23 and 492=13 belong to the so-called Frisian cluster; many of them do not.


I'm sorry, but I don't find these statistics very convincing as proof of U106 dominance in northern Germany. Firstly, as you acknowledge, the 23,10 combination is also found in P312. Secondly, the statistics only include two of several different R1b combinations at those markers, and thus exclude part of R1b. Nor are all of U106 23,10. I would estimate only about half of the U1096 project had that signature, and the only one in the L1 who project did was specifically noted not to be L1. The other two signatures are common in both P312 and U106.

But putting those issues aside, even if one accepts 23,10 as a reasonable stand in for U106, the statistics still don't prove much. "North Germania" is not listed separately, but lumped together with Denmark and the Netherlands. The latter is well known to be the hotspot for U106, and could well be skewing the results. There are some other results which appear improbable if 23,10 is a reasonable facsimilie of U106. It is only 29% of Sweden and Norway. Southeast Germany has a higher percentage than northeast Germany, where it is dwarfed by the other two signatures. If valid, the statistics show a dominance only in the western portion of northern Germany, and not in the eastern portion of the north. Finally Ireland comes in at 18%. Is it believable that nearly 1 in 5 males in Ireland is U106?

I know this sort of datamining Ken used to do often led to interesting results, but I can't consider this as convincing proof that U106 far outnumbers P312 in north Germany.
I have to agree that analyzing bikini STR criteria as a proxy for an SNP marked clade is precarious.
I'm counting 51 R-L21* 23,10 folks and another 20 R-P312 23,10 folks.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2010, 02:00:36 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #116 on: July 31, 2010, 03:59:03 AM »

What seven other values?
If the TMRCA of L159 is indeed medieval, and if it continues to be overhwhelmingly British with but a few odd Scandinavians here and there, then it won't make much sense to argue that it was brought to the British Isles by Norwegian Vikings and settled there as a Scandinavian L21 island in a sea of otherwise British L21.

Remember, L159 is a VERY small part of L21 in Britain and Ireland. And, it only comes up in certain places...

Of course sheer numbers today is not a good basis for inferring where a clade is oldest.  What we really need is to get the sample big enough so a valid look at variance is possible.  In principle I would not rule out the idea of L21 vikings that have nothing to do with slavery.  Ireland is very predominantly L21.  It also had a very significant viking presence that to date has not been detected in the modern y-DNA.  I have a hunch that some L21 includes Viking lineages.  Those clusters that are thinly spread along both sides of the Irish Sea and cross various cultural barriers do make you think there was some seaborne group involved although Vikings are not the only possibility.  I still believe that in the isles a large majority of L21 reflects pre-Germanic times but I think Norman and Viking contributions to isles L21 is also likely. 
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« Reply #117 on: July 31, 2010, 06:54:17 AM »

I think you guys are ignoring some of the data with regard to 390=23 (like the stats from that collection of 1,866 67-marker haplotypes I mentioned), but suit yourselves. I think 390=23 is less valuable as a predictor of U106+ the farther west one goes in Europe, but in Northern Germany, the Netherlands, and Scandinavia, it's a very good predictor.

Like I said, I would never offer to pay for the L21 test of a German with 390=23 unless he also had 11 or 12 at 492. I guarantee you that 99 times out of 100 that would be like flushing money down the toilet.

I think you ought to raise some money and Deep Clade-R test a pool of about 100 North Germans. It would be interesting to see how that would come out.

The scientists aren't doing things like that, it seems.
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« Reply #118 on: July 31, 2010, 07:37:25 AM »

. . .  I still believe that in the isles a large majority of L21 reflects pre-Germanic times but I think Norman and Viking contributions to isles L21 is also likely.  

The pre-Germanic times element is so overwhelming, in my opinion, that it will make the probably minute Scandinavian contribution difficult, if not impossible, to detect. I do think the Normans made some sort of y-dna dent in the British population, but the L21 contingent was probably mostly native Gaulish for the most part and not Scandinavian.

I have had so much grief from the out-of-the-Isles crew ever since L21 was first discovered that I usually don't do or say anything I think might bolster its arguments, but I've got to say that I have some misgivings when it comes to L21 in Scandinavia. I'm not saying I think it's all traceable to the Viking Era slave trade, but I wouldn't disregard that as a factor for at least some of it. Earlier in this thread I mentioned three of our Scandinavian L21 guys whom I think are definitely of Scottish ancestry. I won't bother listing them again. There are at least two others for whom the evidence points to the British Isles, as well. One has a number of fairly close 67-marker Irish matches, and the other has a number of close 67-marker Welsh matches.

I suppose one could argue that those 67-marker Irish matches (Heaney, McGuire, Carroll) and those 67-marker Welsh matches (Banks, Morris, Evans, Jones, Morgan) are the descendants of vikings, but I wonder (Banks may be an English surname, but the rest are pretty well-known Welsh surnames).

To sum up, I think there is pretty good reason to suspect that at least five of our 22 Scandinavians are ultimately British or Irish. Believe me, that is the last thing I want to say, but I try to be brutally honest with myself when assessing this stuff.

The remaining 17 don't give any real clear indications of British ancestry. A few of them have no close matches beyond 12 markers, and a few of them only match other Scandinavians.

One of our Swedes (Martinson, Ysearch E6EXF) lists a family tradition of descent from an Italian pirate named Martini who was supposedly hanged by the King of Sweden. That's probably just a family legend, but there may be some element of truth to it, perhaps the Italian immigrant part.

I very strongly doubt that L159 will prove to be the Viking L21 clade in the British Isles. In fact, I think where it shows up in Scandinavia it is the unmistakable sign of an Irish or British import and will probably be accompanied by a rack of fairly close British Isles matches. (That's assuming that L159 is stable enough to be regarded as a legitimate SNP or something like an SNP.)

I will be very glad to be convinced otherwise, but I don't look for that to happen.

« Last Edit: July 31, 2010, 07:43:13 AM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #119 on: July 31, 2010, 08:02:44 AM »

. . .  I still believe that in the isles a large majority of L21 reflects pre-Germanic times but I think Norman and Viking contributions to isles L21 is also likely.  

The pre-Germanic times element is so overwhelming, in my opinion, that it will make the probably minute Scandinavian contribution difficult, if not impossible, to detect. I do think the Normans made some sort of y-dna dent in the British population, but the L21 contingent was probably mostly native Gaulish for the most part and not Scandinavian.

I have had so much grief from the out-of-the-Isles crew ever since L21 was first discovered that I usually don't do or say anything I think might bolster its arguments, but I've got to say that I have some misgivings when it comes to L21 in Scandinavia. I'm not saying I think it's all traceable to the Viking Era slave trade, but I wouldn't disregard that as a factor for at least some of it. Earlier in this thread I mentioned three of our Scandinavian L21 guys whom I think are definitely of Scottish ancestry. I won't bother listing them again. There are at least two others for whom the evidence points to the British Isles, as well. One has a number of fairly close 67-marker Irish matches, and the other has a number of close 67-marker Welsh matches.

I suppose one could argue that those 67-marker Irish matches (Heaney, McGuire, Carroll) and those 67-marker Welsh matches (Banks, Morris, Evans, Jones, Morgan) are the descendants of vikings, but I wonder (Banks may be an English surname, but the rest are pretty well-known Welsh surnames).

To sum up, I think there is pretty good reason to suspect that at least five of our 22 Scandinavians are ultimately British or Irish. Believe me, that is the last thing I want to say, but I try to be brutally honest with myself when assessing this stuff.

The remaining 17 don't give any real clear indications of British ancestry. A few of them have no close matches beyond 12 markers, and a few of them only match other Scandinavians.

One of our Swedes (Martinson, Ysearch E6EXF) lists a family tradition of descent from an Italian pirate named Martini who was supposedly hanged by the King of Sweden. That's probably just a family legend, but there may be some element of truth to it, perhaps the Italian immigrant part.

I very strongly doubt that L159 will prove to be the Viking L21 clade in the British Isles. In fact, I think where it shows up in Scandinavia it is the unmistakable sign of an Irish or British import and will probably be accompanied by a rack of fairly close British Isles matches. (That's assuming that L159 is stable enough to be regarded as a legitimate SNP or something like an SNP.)

I will be very glad to be convinced otherwise, but I don't look for that to happen.



I understand how you feel about L159, but I will let the empirical evidence speak for itself.

Interesting you mentioned the close matches of Scandinavians being British. The new Norwegian I recruited yesterday (he actually lives in Tromso) has no matches at 37 markers actually, and he can go back to the 1600s in Northern Norway.

I am not trying to convince anybody, and am actually quite excited at the possibilities now!
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« Reply #120 on: July 31, 2010, 08:14:40 AM »

I understand how you feel about L159, but I will let the empirical evidence speak for itself.

Interesting you mentioned the close matches of Scandinavians being British. The new Norwegian I recruited yesterday (he actually lives in Tromso) has no matches at 37 markers actually, and he can go back to the 1600s in Northern Norway.

I am not trying to convince anybody, and am actually quite excited at the possibilities now!

Empirical evidence?

How many Scandinavians have tested positive for L159?

What are their Ysearch IDs?

Have they also been tested for L21?

Since there is some question about the stability of L159, it would probably be a good idea if all those with an L159+ result were at least tested for L21 to make sure we're dealing with the same thing and not separate incidences of L159 in different subclades.
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« Reply #121 on: July 31, 2010, 08:29:32 AM »

I understand how you feel about L159, but I will let the empirical evidence speak for itself.

Interesting you mentioned the close matches of Scandinavians being British. The new Norwegian I recruited yesterday (he actually lives in Tromso) has no matches at 37 markers actually, and he can go back to the 1600s in Northern Norway.

I am not trying to convince anybody, and am actually quite excited at the possibilities now!

Empirical evidence?

How many Scandinavians have tested positive for L159?

What are their Ysearch IDs?

Have they also been tested for L21?

Since there is some question about the stability of L159, it would probably be a good idea if all those with an L159+ result were at least tested for L21 to make sure we're dealing with the same thing and not separate incidences of L159 in different subclades.

The stability factor has nothing to do with L159's placement in the R-tree. It is clearly downstream of R-L21 - and may I add - that all who have been deep clade tested and are L159+ are 100% L21+. So that is not at issue.

The haplotype is only present in R-L21. I have been able to predict at a 100% hit rate the outcome of L159 testing. Preliminary testing has supported this.

And what good is it for me to post supporting statistics of L159 on this forum now? You reaffirm that you can not be convinced, but are persistent in trying to devalue the possibility of a Scandinavian orign (which is a good possibility).

I am not sure why you take such an pro-Celtic stance here, but that has something to do with it. I remember a long time ago you mentioned your closest 67-marker match being a Welshman. Does this have something to do with the support of L21 being thoroughly Celtic, and "No, no, it can not be Germanic!"? How can any impartiality be derived from this? This makes me support my point even further, Rich.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2010, 08:34:33 AM by NealtheRed » Logged

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« Reply #122 on: July 31, 2010, 08:54:13 AM »

I remember a chart of R1b haplotypes posted online some years ago. Anyway,
it split the different types into R1b-North Sea, R1b-Baltic/East, etc.

The chart designated the different percentages of R1b clades by DYS390. In the R1b-North Sea group, DYS390= 24 was the clear majority, with the value of 23 coming in second (and not a close second).

In U106, 90% of those who have 24 on DYS390 come back L48-. My maternal grandfather is U106+, has 24 on DYS390, and is L48- accordingly. His ancestry is from Palatinate, Germany.
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« Reply #123 on: July 31, 2010, 09:01:49 AM »



The stability factor has nothing to do with L159's placement in the R-tree. It is clearly downstream of R-L21 - and may I add - that all who have been deep clade tested and are L159+ are 100% L21+. So that is not at issue.

Neal,

L159 has not been recognized by ISOGG and placed in its R Tree, and it also occurs in I2a. There is a question about its stability, which was mentioned by Thomas Krahn on Rootsweb.

The haplotype is only present in R-L21. I have been able to predict at a 100% hit rate the outcome of L159 testing. Preliminary testing has supported this.

And what good is it for me to post supporting statistics of L159 on this forum now? You reaffirm that you can not be convinced, but are persistent in trying to devalue the possibility of a Scandinavian orign (which is a good possibility).

I can be convinced, but I need to be convinced by actual evidence.

I am not sure why you take such an pro-Celtic stance here, but that has something to do with it. I remember a long time ago you mentioned your closest 67-marker match being a Welshman. Does this have something to do with the support of L21 being thoroughly Celtic, and "No, no, it can not be Germanic!"? How can any impartiality be derived from this? This makes me support my point even further, Rich.

Now you have descended to an ad hominem attack, which is the refuge of those who cannot support their theories.

I am not taking a "pro-Celtic" stance. I am merely saying what I believe to be true.

I could respond in kind (and there is ample ammunition, believe me), but I won't.

I will just ask you to produce the evidence, but I don't think you can.

By the way, I began dna testing thinking I was "Germanic". I grew up reading all the Germanic stuff I could get my hands on, including the Viking sagas and anything I could find about the Vikings. If I could find a way to make P312 and L21 "Germanic", believe me, I would do it. I freely admit that. Honestly, I grew up thinking Celts were losers, beaten by the Romans, the Anglo-Saxons, and the Vikings (my apologies to the Celtomaniacs out there).

So, you are way off base. Please don't continue in that personal vein. You don't want to go down that road, trust me.

 
« Last Edit: July 31, 2010, 09:02:31 AM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #124 on: July 31, 2010, 09:39:01 AM »

This is the point I am trying to make. You call that a personal attack? This is a forum, not Caesar's Palace. I apologize if I uspet you in any way.

Thomas Krahn also clearly stated that L159 is important to the Irish Sea Modal. I have stated this before. There is a correlation between the haplotype and L159 status, meaning a common ancestry. But to one outside the cluster, it means nothing. Ditto.

Holy Christmas. I'm off base?
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