R-P312+ et al tracking

[MHammers]

Are any of those in the east of Ashkenazi Jewish origin?  I'm just thinking some of those in the east may have their P312 origin closer to Italy or the Rhineland.

[Mikewww]

Are any of those in the east of Ashkenazi Jewish origin?  I'm just thinking some of those in the east may have their P312 origin closer to Italy or the Rhineland.

Some probably are, but I hesitate to categorize people by religious preference unless they state it.  The spreadsheet is a little too big but I'll figure out how to post it so you can look at the names, etc.

[MHammers]

I looked at the Jewish Ukraine West project and found 10 R1bs (4 of which seem to be P312* and the other 6 are either U152 or L21).  Other R1b's were upstream of P312.  This is somewhat confusing, but I do think P312 was already in Europe long before Judaism originated in the Middle east, so these men would seem to be descendants of converts.

[MHammers]

I ran some simple variance calculations on presumed P312* and U106* members.  I omitted those members who were listed in the various Jewish projects, only a few actually, in order not to confuse any interpretations about population movements.

For both groups I only used those tested at 67 markers.  I divided the populations into three zones; Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, Ukraine, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Russia, Belarus); Central Europe (Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium).  For P312, I split France and Iberia including their New World members.  For U106, I combined France and Iberia into a Southwest group in order to get a better sample size.  I calculated the variance on Excel at 65 markers (minus CDY) and 50 (minus CDY, 425, and multi-copiers).

Results:
U106 EE - .297@65, .259@50, n=17
U106 CE - .285@65, .255@50, n=35
U106 SW - .284@65, .272@50, n=11
P312 EE - .291@65, .300@50, n=13
P312 CE - .251@65, .245@50, n=29
P312 France - .309@65, .331@50, n=19
P312 Iberia - .263@65, .243@50, n=22

[MHammers]

Here is an addition to the above post.

U106 Germany only - .235@65, .233@50, n=14
P312 Germany only - .257@65, .259@50, n=17

It seems there is a hint of an older east-west axis (maybe because of the Danube) of higher variance running from France to Eastern Europe for both U106 and P312.   P312 in France being clearly older than the other samples, which is interestingly the same as for French L21.  The central European group looks to have received a later spread in a line from roughly north-south along the Rhine from Netherlands/Belgium through Germany to the Alpine countries. 

[Mikewww]

East (of Germany) Europe & East Mediterranean (but no Italy) _ 107.4%
East (of Germany) Europe & East Mediterranean (incl S. Italy) _ 105.0%
Alpine & Cisalpine _ 103.2%
France _____________ 101.4%
Italy ______________ 100.9%
England ____________ 99.2%
Ireland ____________ 98.3%
Germany ____________ 97.2%
Iberia _____________ 96.0%
Scotland ___________ 93.7%
Scandinavia ________ 92.6%
Low Countries ______ 88.0%
Aquitaine & Pyrenees 86.6%
Wales ______________ 82.4%

East Europe is everything east of Germany, but including Southern (non-Cisalpine) Italy and the Mediterranean except Iberia and France. There is only one North African result. As it turns out, if you remove Italy, diversity goes up to 107.4%.

Aquitaine is Southwestern France and the Pyrenees including both sides of the border with Spain.  Cantabria is not included. The Basque Country is included.

Alpine France is not included with Alpine Countries, but I look at that further below since France does have a high diversity number.

Here are some of my interpretations.  They are just speculations.

Iberia’s diversity just isn’t that high so I think its probability as an origin point for R-P312 is diminished.  Even if I add France’s Aquitaine/Pyrenees region to Iberia the diversity for that total area doesn’t go up any, it’s still 96.0%, the same as the subset which is Iberia.

England has higher diversity than Ireland, slightly, but both are less diverse than France, Italy, the Alpine Countries and Eastern Europe.  It does not appear that R-P312 originated in the British Isles.  Wales has a fairly low diversity and I would have thought it’d have high diversity given the history that old Britons were supposed to have been pushed there.  My opinion is that the diversity we see in England and Ireland is only high because they are key migration stops, much as the Americas are. I admit I’m assuming there is truth in the archaeological and historical knowledge of a number of large east to west migrations across Europe and to the Americas.

France does have high diversity so I think it is a potential candidate for an origin point for R-P312, although it could be receiving its diversity because of being a kind of cross-roads for Western Europe.  There are enough test results so I broke France into regions.  Here is the diversity by region of France.

Southeast ____________ 109.7% (Rhône-Alpes, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Auvergne, Limousin)
North & Central ______ 107.5% (Basse-Normandie, Champagne-Ardenne, Haute-Normandie, Île-de-France, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Picardy)
North Atlantic _______ 99.6%  (Bretagne, Pays de la Loire, Poitou-Charentes)
Aquitaine & Pyrenees _ 95.8%  (Aquitaine, Midi-Pyrénées, Languedoc-Roussillon)
Northeast ____________ 94.4%  (Alsace, Borgogne, Franche-Comté, Lorraine)

The thing that jumps out is the high diversity in the Southeast. This is the mountainous area of France that includes the Alps and Central Massif. Of course this is right next to the Alpine Countries (Switzerland, Austria & Cisalpine Gaul/Italy).  The Alpine countries also have high diversity and therefore this whole region could be an origination point for R-P312.

Diversity is also high in North & Central France.  Perhaps this is the crossroads with the British Isles, at least for R-P312.  Certainly, Normandy, was a staging point for back and forth movement to the Isles. Northern France must have Romano-Gauls, some nearby Bretons as well as immigant Vikings from Norway, Danelaw England and Hiberno-Norse, all of which would have some R-P312.  From the Brabant we see significant R-P312 in Flanders.  The Flemish folks also mixed into Normandy. http://www.eupedia.com/forum/showpost.php?p=352637&postcount=5

Paris is also in this region the way I defined it.  Is there an ancient London-Paris trade/exchange/migration zone?

However, the highest diversity is found scattered to the east, from Poland, the Baltic states and down through the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and into the Balkans and even entering into Asia.  Some of R-P312’s presence in some of these areas could be attributed to Celtic, Jewish and Germanic migrations eastward.  This could account for the lower penetration of the total populations to the east, but wouldn’t account for higher diversity. In the case of Jewish migrations, we must also consider they may only be a “back-migration” from a further east in the first place.

It is important to view R-P312 in context of its brother R-U106 and its ancestors, R-M269+ P312- peoples. The Vince Vizachero’s Ht35 Project has demonstrated higher diversity of R-M269+ P312- ancestry as one moves east towards Southwest Asia.  I can’t speak much about R-U106 but I’ve read that it’s ancestral haplotypes appear more frequently as you move to the eastern part of the Northern European plain, i.e. Poland.

Perhaps R-P312 actually originated in Southeastern Europe, Southwest Asia or the area immediately to its north.  It moved westward towards the Alps (possibly following the Danube) and then exploded from the Alpine area in a westward star-like pattern into Iberia, France, Germany and through France to the British Isles.  The Atlantic trading/transportation zone may have provided additional means for movements up/down the seaboard from Scandinavia to Iberia.  Of course, Northern France and England sit in the middle, accumulating diversity but obviously not enough to overshadow diversity back at the middle of the explosion, the Alpine area. Even though it is only a shadow, the greater diversity further east is evidence of the trail back in time. http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=9496.msg120038#msg120038

I don't see the Cardial Ware Neolithic expansion in this. Iberia should have higher diversity and Southern Italy higher yet.... not the Alpine area.

The LBK Neolithic still has some merit, but it just touches down to the Alpine area.. and doesn't emanate from the Alpine area. Right?

The data is all there for anyone to come up with their own analysis.  I’ll show you a little more about the R-P312 subclades later.  If you want to get into the details and the data please go to http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/R-P312Project/

Comments?

I'll look at diversity by region for L21, U152 and SRY2627 as well.

Regards,
Mike

[Maliclavelli]

From many years I support the theory of an "Italian refugium" against everybody.
Also my friend Rich has always remained sceptical on this.
You can see the evolution of this theory in my thousands of postings on "Rootsweb",
"dna-forums", "Dienekes blog" and here. This against Vizachero and his theory of the
origin of R1b1b2* in West Asia/Middle East.
Now MHammers writes: "Are any of those in the east of Ashkenazi Jewish origin? I'm
just thinking some of those in the east may have their P312 origin closer to Italy
or the Rhineland". For having said this and other I was banned from two of these forums:
from "Rootsweb" at the end of 2007 and from "dna-forums" at the end of 2008.

Which is my theory? As some maps of Argiedude have demonstrated, probably there was
some ancient settlements of R1b (about this haplogroup we are speaking, even though
the problem is wider) both in Turkey and nearby and in North Italy/Alpine Region and
nearby. I have always rejected the theory of a recent origin of this haplogroup. I
have always spoken at least of the Younger Dryas for the Italian Refugium. Italy
has all the pathway of R1b, from R1b1* to R-L51, of which detains the deepest variance.
From R-L51 I think that began the migration to Central Europe, Eastward and Westward
the Alps. We don't know if R-P312 and R-U106 was born out of Italy or if they was born
before the migration. Certainly some haplogroups had a back migration to Italy at the
time of the Italic Peoples, linked to Celts, and probably come from Central Europe. But
also about R-U106, certainly born in North West Europe, I am not sure that has come
to Italy at the end of the Roman Empire, but can have come thousands of years before.
My friend Cesaroni (but perhaps also the Brazilian Zeni, who is waiting for his deep
exam) and another Italian with the same surname are R-U106*, then the most ancient
haplogroup, and have a MRCA more than 3 thousands of years ago.
If your theories are right, you shall explain why Italy hasn't R-L21: I have demolished
all the presumed ones (also Argiedude, the last remained, is in danger), but is plenty
of R-U152, evidently not Celt as David Faux presumed.
I have written too much in the past and from some time I am waiting for the definite
proof: the aDNA (next year probably Oetzi).
Also about the mtDNA I have written much and demonstrated that some haplogroups are born
certainly in Italy, probably the most ancient in Europe, from HV which generated H to R2
which generated J/T. U is recognized European par excellence and nobody will convince
me that my K isn't Italian.

[Mikewww]

From many years I support the theory of an "Italian refugium" against everybody.......
Which is my theory? As some maps of Argiedude have demonstrated, probably there was some ancient settlements of R1b (about this haplogroup we are speaking, even though the problem is wider) both in Turkey and nearby and in North Italy/Alpine Region and nearby. I have always rejected the theory of a recent origin of this haplogroup. I have always spoken at least of the Younger Dryas for the Italian Refugium. Italy has all the pathway of R1b, from R1b1* to R-L51, of which detains the deepest variance.
From R-L51 I think that began the migration to Central Europe, Eastward and Westward  the Alps. We don't know if R-P312 and R-U106 was born out of Italy or if they was born before the migration. Certainly some haplogroups had a back migration to Italy at the time of the Italic Peoples, linked to Celts, and probably come from Central Europe. But also about R-U106, certainly born in North West Europe...

As far as R-P312 goes, it doesn't look like he comes from Italy.  The scattering of R-P312 that has the greatest diversity comes from what I called East Europe (but really just east of Germany, Austria, Swizterland, Northern Italy).

If I add Italy into that group the diversity goes down.  Italy's diversity is less.

If you look at Germany itself, it does not have high diversity for R-P312.  The Alpine countries have high diversity but not has high as points east.

To fit the R-P312 evidence and your theory together..  the R-P312 ancestors would have left Italy and moved to places like Hungary, Poland, Russia, the Ukraine, Czech Republic and then later move west into the Alpine Countries and France before going on to the Isles, Iberia and Germany.

Could R-P312 and it's ancestors be from Anatolia? That part of your theory seems a bit more likely to fit the east to west trajectory.

[Maliclavelli]

Mikewww, I thank you for your considered answer. My theory is complex and I wasn't able to summarize it in a few words. Actually it presupposed a migration to East, the formation of the Indo-European languages (that I presumed linked with the Rhaetian-Etruscan ones), the expansion linked with the diffusion of agriculture from Asia Minor (then for me cultural and not demic, if not in the South Balkans and partly South Italy) etc.

The knot is for me R-L51, centered in Italy, the not yet resolved problem of L150- (if found thus far in the only Romitti, in favour of an Italian origin, and the dubious result of Sutherland: R1b1b2* but L150+ on the Adriano's spreadsheet), the migration to North Africa of R1b1* from North (Italy) and not from East, as the same Cruciani does think, the Yoruba found R1b1b2a with the L216 mutation  (with R1b1* there were already R1b1b2a?), I who at the same level have the mutation S136 (a deletion of 9bp in the region of L50), and above all the dating of R1b1b2, that I presuppose more ancient than others are thinking...
For this I am waiting for the aDNA and Oetzi, who was certainly an ancient Italian, above all.

[Maliclavelli]

Interesting news from EJHG: Natalie M. Myres et al., A major Y-chromosome haplogroup R1b Holocene era founder effect in Central and Western Europe.

M412? Is it perhaps the "Rozen's SNP" I ask to test from many months?

Anyway is fundamental that this SNP "largely separates the majority of Central and West European R1b lineages from those observed in Eastern Europe, the Circum-Uralic region, the Near East, the Caucasus and Pakistan".

This for Vizachero and my two banishments!

"more complex pre-Neolithic scenarios remain possible for L23(xM412) components in Southeast Europe and elsewhere" always from the paper. And on this I have said and will say mine.

[Mikewww]

What is SNP M412? Does this article contain corroborating evidence?

"A major Y-chromosome haplogroup R1b Holocene era founder effect in Central and Western Europe" by Myres et al.
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ejhg2010146a.html
 

"Within the M412 dichotomy, the major S116 sub-clade shows a frequency peak in the upper Danube basin and Paris area with declining frequency toward Italy, Iberia, Southern France and British Isles"

The R-P312 (aka S116) diversity calculations I've just completed show higher diversity in the Alpine Countries (the upper Danube basin) and also in North/Central France (Paris and above.)   Maybe there is something to this.

Mike

East (of Germany) Europe & East Mediterranean (but no Italy) _ 107.4%
East (of Germany) Europe & East Mediterranean (incl S. Italy) _ 105.0%
Alpine & Cisalpine _ 103.2%
France _____________ 101.4%
Italy ______________ 100.9%
England ____________ 99.2%
Ireland ____________ 98.3%
Germany ____________ 97.2%
Iberia _____________ 96.0%
Scotland ___________ 93.7%
Scandinavia ________ 92.6%
Low Countries ______ 88.0%
Aquitaine & Pyrenees 86.6%
Wales ______________ 82.4%

East Europe is everything east of Germany, but including Southern (non-Cisalpine) Italy and the Mediterranean except Iberia and France. There is only one North African result. As it turns out, if you remove Italy, diversity goes up to 107.4%.

Aquitaine is Southwestern France and the Pyrenees including both sides of the border with Spain.  Cantabria is not included. The Basque Country is included.

Alpine France is not included with Alpine Countries, but I look at that further below since France does have a high diversity number.

Here are some of my interpretations.  They are just speculations.

Iberia’s diversity just isn’t that high so I think its probability as an origin point for R-P312 is diminished.  Even if I add France’s Aquitaine/Pyrenees region to Iberia the diversity for that total area doesn’t go up any, it’s still 96.0%, the same as the subset which is Iberia.

England has higher diversity than Ireland, slightly, but both are less diverse than France, Italy, the Alpine Countries and Eastern Europe.  It does not appear that R-P312 originated in the British Isles.  Wales has a fairly low diversity and I would have thought it’d have high diversity given the history that old Britons were supposed to have been pushed there.  My opinion is that the diversity we see in England and Ireland is only high because they are key migration stops, much as the Americas are. I admit I’m assuming there is truth in the archaeological and historical knowledge of a number of large east to west migrations across Europe and to the Americas.

France does have high diversity so I think it is a potential candidate for an origin point for R-P312, although it could be receiving its diversity because of being a kind of cross-roads for Western Europe.  There are enough test results so I broke France into regions.  Here is the diversity by region of France.

Southeast ____________ 109.7% (Rhône-Alpes, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Auvergne, Limousin)
North & Central ______ 107.5% (Basse-Normandie, Champagne-Ardenne, Haute-Normandie, Île-de-France, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Picardy)
North Atlantic _______ 99.6%  (Bretagne, Pays de la Loire, Poitou-Charentes)
Aquitaine & Pyrenees _ 95.8%  (Aquitaine, Midi-Pyrénées, Languedoc-Roussillon)
Northeast ____________ 94.4%  (Alsace, Borgogne, Franche-Comté, Lorraine)

The thing that jumps out is the high diversity in the Southeast. This is the mountainous area of France that includes the Alps and Central Massif. Of course this is right next to the Alpine Countries (Switzerland, Austria & Cisalpine Gaul/Italy).  The Alpine countries also have high diversity and therefore this whole region could be an origination point for R-P312.

Diversity is also high in North & Central France.  Perhaps this is the crossroads with the British Isles, at least for R-P312.  Certainly, Normandy, was a staging point for back and forth movement to the Isles. Northern France must have Romano-Gauls, some nearby Bretons as well as immigant Vikings from Norway, Danelaw England and Hiberno-Norse, all of which would have some R-P312.  From the Brabant we see significant R-P312 in Flanders.  The Flemish folks also mixed into Normandy. http://www.eupedia.com/forum/showpost.php?p=352637&postcount=5

Paris is also in this region the way I defined it.  Is there an ancient London-Paris trade/exchange/migration zone?

However, the highest diversity is found scattered to the east, from Poland, the Baltic states and down through the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and into the Balkans and even entering into Asia.  Some of R-P312’s presence in some of these areas could be attributed to Celtic, Jewish and Germanic migrations eastward.  This could account for the lower penetration of the total populations to the east, but wouldn’t account for higher diversity. In the case of Jewish migrations, we must also consider they may only be a “back-migration” from a further east in the first place.

It is important to view R-P312 in context of its brother R-U106 and its ancestors, R-M269+ P312- peoples. The Vince Vizachero’s Ht35 Project has demonstrated higher diversity of R-M269+ P312- ancestry as one moves east towards Southwest Asia.  I can’t speak much about R-U106 but I’ve read that it’s ancestral haplotypes appear more frequently as you move to the eastern part of the Northern European plain, i.e. Poland.

Perhaps R-P312 actually originated in Southeastern Europe, Southwest Asia or the area immediately to its north.  It moved westward towards the Alps (possibly following the Danube) and then exploded from the Alpine area in a westward star-like pattern into Iberia, France, Germany and through France to the British Isles.  The Atlantic trading/transportation zone may have provided additional means for movements up/down the seaboard from Scandinavia to Iberia.  Of course, Northern France and England sit in the middle, accumulating diversity but obviously not enough to overshadow diversity back at the middle of the explosion, the Alpine area. Even though it is only a shadow, the greater diversity further east is evidence of the trail back in time. http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=9496.msg120038#msg120038

I don't see the Cardial Ware Neolithic expansion in this. Iberia should have higher diversity and Southern Italy higher yet.... not the Alpine area.

The LBK Neolithic still has some merit, but it just touches down to the Alpine area.. and doesn't emanate from the Alpine area. Right?

The data is all there for anyone to come up with their own analysis.  I’ll show you a little more about the R-P312 subclades later.  If you want to get into the details and the data please go to http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/R-P312Project/

Comments?

I'll look at diversity by region for L21, U152 and SRY2627 as well.

Regards,
Mike

[rms2]

It sounds like M412 is P310/L11 or possibly L51. "S116" (P312) is "the major . . . sub-clade" "within the M412 dichotomy". That dichotomy would be the P312/U106 divide.

Weird that the abstract says, ". . . the major S116 sub-clade shows a frequency peak in the upper Danube basin and Paris area with declining frequency toward Italy, Iberia, Southern France and British Isles."

The "declining frequency toward . . . [the] British Isles" is the puzzling part, if they are talking about P312 (S116).

[MHammers]

It looks like something upstream of the P312/U106 split like you've said.  Maybe it's parallel to L51 or P310.  The supplemental info is free.  I'm interested in seeing if they have any haplotypes.

[Maliclavelli]

(from Rootsweb)
"This paper seems to validate Vince V's approach in the Ht35 project...
or maybe they followed his project and decided to research it. I'm
glad they are looking in the right places.

I don't see this as a Holocene series of events, at least the
first half of it. The good news is that we are no longer talking
about Paleolithic timeframes for R1b in Europe.

Mike"


Mike, how can you say this? They are talking of R-L51, but R-L23 they date  to
about 10,000YBP. And R1b1b2*? And R1b1*?

[MHammers]

I briefly looked at the supp. data.  When I get more time I'll look at some more.  M412 is L51*.  

Gioiello,

As for Italy there are 4 samples for M412 and 2 for L11.  The M412 is only in the north.  Percentage-wise Ireland and Poland have more M412*, so this looks like a spread from the north rather than emerging from Italy.  Also there are significant numbers of L23* around the Urals, Pakistan, and the Caucasus making a Neolithic Mediterranean route from SW Asia not the only way L51 and/or L11 could have entered Europe.  As for L23* the east Mediterranean has much smaller percentages than the Caucasus.

The highest frequencies for L11* are in Switzerland (6.3%), Denmark (5.9), and north Poland (5.9).  This seems to line up with a suggested spread of U106 and P312 from east of the Rhine.  L51*/M412 was found highest in south Poland (4.5).  However, west of the Rhine, Ireland and France both had about 6.5% frequency of L51*.

[Maliclavelli]

MHammers, is it too much difficult my name? Gioiello.

Unfortunately I have lost excel on my computer and I haven't seen the supplements, but after dinner I'll go to see them at another computer.

You speak of percentages. But as regards what? Of course if are calculated on the R1b haplogroup, Poland has much less than Italy.

As regards R-L51 Argiedude demonstrated that Italy has the highest percentage and the highest variance.

Appreciable the irony of Mike: "I  don't see this as a Holocene series of events, at least the first half of it". But this was just the Vizachero's theory. Is he a very powerful man? Fortunately I live very far.

[A.D.]

Hi
Ive been (trying) to follow this thread and wondering if there is a reason for the large area in France with no R1B1. I was thinking firstly this is the area cease depopulated then resettled with ex soldiers also during that war (with Vocingerorix)the Gauls used a 'scorched earth ' tactic. being as they lost they couldn't go back to no food even if they weren't enslaved.
That got me to thinking how would depopulation events such as the black death  effect the genetic map. if certain areas  at that stage in history were in rabbited by descendants of a certain tribe or  related groups of clads, then that area was hit by the plague and repopulated by a mix of other clads. would that not limit the number of variations from the original groups.
I also read that the original reason for the Celtic migration to the west was down to their home land being 'emptied' by malaria the biggest killer in ancient times.
never mind the 'Celtic bit' but the emptied by malaria could be treated as the black death idea. wouldn't this leave us big holes where we would expect to find certain clads.
So i was thinking if we superimposed data of depopulation over the areas we were looking would it change our expectations?   

[vineviz]

Hi
Ive been (trying) to follow this thread and wondering if there is a reason for the large area in France with no R1B1.

There are not any  "large areas" in France with no R1b1.

[Mikewww]

This link was posted on dna-forum with little explanation.  I think it is supplementary data for  "A major Y-chromosome haplogroup R1b Holocene era founder effect in Central and Western Europe" by Myres et al.
http://www.nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/extref/ejhg2010146x3.xl

I took the S116 (P312) all country stats and sorted them by "TD."  I believe this is Total Diversity.  (EDIT: TD is Coalescent Time) Even if it isn't you can see the Average Variance in the last column.   It seems strange that Vaucluse is depicted.  Unless I'm missing something it is a department in Southeast France.  Germany is higher than what I thought it'd be.


Country _____ N __ TD_________ SE__________ Avg Var
Turkey ______ 5 __ 13.0434783 _ 3.7106984 _ 0.3300000
Vaucluse ____ 20 _ 11.2700229 _ 3.2893370 _ 0.3069591
Germany _____ 62 _ 10.2449436 _ 1.7264622 _ 0.2623744
France ______ 40 _ 10.0972540 _ 2.0811716 _ 0.2678429
Slovenia ____ 7 __ 9.3167702 __ 2.2889060 _ 0.2666667
Hungary _____ 9 __ 9.2592593 __ 2.7533930 _ 0.2555556
Poland ______ 6 __ 9.0579710 __ 2.7378161 _ 0.2700000
England _____ 43 _ 8.9616736 __ 1.4906030 _ 0.2326972
Switzerland   _ 48 _ 8.6098905 __ 1.8374984 _ 0.2307065
Slovakia ____ 20 _ 8.1521739 __ 2.7173913 _ 0.2239474
Ireland _____ 73 _ 8.1517564 __ 1.9104604 _ 0.2078526
Italy   _______ 72 _ 7.6369044 __ 1.3101991 _ 0.1975542
Romania _____ 11 _ 7.5757576 __ 3.2956370 _ 0.1690909
Netherlands _ 14 _ 7.5648989 __ 1.6592345 _ 0.1957875
Denmark _____ 16 _ 7.3822464 __ 2.6438437 _ 0.1670833
Greece ______ 7 __ 6.7287785 __ 2.3211912 _ 0.1619048
Sweden ______ 10 _ 6.1594203 __ 1.6248338 _ 0.1722222

East (of Germany) Europe & East Mediterranean (but no Italy) _ 107.4%
East (of Germany) Europe & East Mediterranean (incl S. Italy) _ 105.0%
Alpine & Cisalpine _ 103.2%
France _____________ 101.4%
Italy ______________ 100.9%
England ____________ 99.2%
Ireland ____________ 98.3%
Germany ____________ 97.2%
Iberia _____________ 96.0%
Scotland ___________ 93.7%
Scandinavia ________ 92.6%
Low Countries ______ 88.0%
Aquitaine & Pyrenees 86.6%
Wales ______________ 82.4%

East Europe is everything east of Germany, but including Southern (non-Cisalpine) Italy and the Mediterranean except Iberia and France. There is only one North African result. As it turns out, if you remove Italy, diversity goes up to 107.4%.

Aquitaine is Southwestern France and the Pyrenees including both sides of the border with Spain.  Cantabria is not included. The Basque Country is included.

Alpine France is not included with Alpine Countries, but I look at that further below since France does have a high diversity number.

Here are some of my interpretations.  They are just speculations.

Iberia’s diversity just isn’t that high so I think its probability as an origin point for R-P312 is diminished.  Even if I add France’s Aquitaine/Pyrenees region to Iberia the diversity for that total area doesn’t go up any, it’s still 96.0%, the same as the subset which is Iberia.

England has higher diversity than Ireland, slightly, but both are less diverse than France, Italy, the Alpine Countries and Eastern Europe.  It does not appear that R-P312 originated in the British Isles.  Wales has a fairly low diversity and I would have thought it’d have high diversity given the history that old Britons were supposed to have been pushed there.  My opinion is that the diversity we see in England and Ireland is only high because they are key migration stops, much as the Americas are. I admit I’m assuming there is truth in the archaeological and historical knowledge of a number of large east to west migrations across Europe and to the Americas.

France does have high diversity so I think it is a potential candidate for an origin point for R-P312, although it could be receiving its diversity because of being a kind of cross-roads for Western Europe.  There are enough test results so I broke France into regions.  Here is the diversity by region of France.

Southeast ____________ 109.7% (Rhône-Alpes, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Auvergne, Limousin)
North & Central ______ 107.5% (Basse-Normandie, Champagne-Ardenne, Haute-Normandie, Île-de-France, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Picardy)
North Atlantic _______ 99.6%  (Bretagne, Pays de la Loire, Poitou-Charentes)
Aquitaine & Pyrenees _ 95.8%  (Aquitaine, Midi-Pyrénées, Languedoc-Roussillon)
Northeast ____________ 94.4%  (Alsace, Borgogne, Franche-Comté, Lorraine)

The thing that jumps out is the high diversity in the Southeast. This is the mountainous area of France that includes the Alps and Central Massif. Of course this is right next to the Alpine Countries (Switzerland, Austria & Cisalpine Gaul/Italy).  The Alpine countries also have high diversity and therefore this whole region could be an origination point for R-P312.

Diversity is also high in North & Central France.  Perhaps this is the crossroads with the British Isles, at least for R-P312.  Certainly, Normandy, was a staging point for back and forth movement to the Isles. Northern France must have Romano-Gauls, some nearby Bretons as well as immigant Vikings from Norway, Danelaw England and Hiberno-Norse, all of which would have some R-P312.  From the Brabant we see significant R-P312 in Flanders.  The Flemish folks also mixed into Normandy. http://www.eupedia.com/forum/showpost.php?p=352637&postcount=5

Paris is also in this region the way I defined it.  Is there an ancient London-Paris trade/exchange/migration zone?

However, the highest diversity is found scattered to the east, from Poland, the Baltic states and down through the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and into the Balkans and even entering into Asia.  Some of R-P312’s presence in some of these areas could be attributed to Celtic, Jewish and Germanic migrations eastward.  This could account for the lower penetration of the total populations to the east, but wouldn’t account for higher diversity. In the case of Jewish migrations, we must also consider they may only be a “back-migration” from a further east in the first place.

It is important to view R-P312 in context of its brother R-U106 and its ancestors, R-M269+ P312- peoples. The Vince Vizachero’s Ht35 Project has demonstrated higher diversity of R-M269+ P312- ancestry as one moves east towards Southwest Asia.  I can’t speak much about R-U106 but I’ve read that it’s ancestral haplotypes appear more frequently as you move to the eastern part of the Northern European plain, i.e. Poland.

Perhaps R-P312 actually originated in Southeastern Europe, Southwest Asia or the area immediately to its north.  It moved westward towards the Alps (possibly following the Danube) and then exploded from the Alpine area in a westward star-like pattern into Iberia, France, Germany and through France to the British Isles.  The Atlantic trading/transportation zone may have provided additional means for movements up/down the seaboard from Scandinavia to Iberia.  Of course, Northern France and England sit in the middle, accumulating diversity but obviously not enough to overshadow diversity back at the middle of the explosion, the Alpine area. Even though it is only a shadow, the greater diversity further east is evidence of the trail back in time. http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=9496.msg120038#msg120038

I don't see the Cardial Ware Neolithic expansion in this. Iberia should have higher diversity and Southern Italy higher yet.... not the Alpine area.

The LBK Neolithic still has some merit, but it just touches down to the Alpine area.. and doesn't emanate from the Alpine area. Right?

The data is all there for anyone to come up with their own analysis.  I’ll show you a little more about the R-P312 subclades later.  If you want to get into the details and the data please go to http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/R-P312Project/

Comments?

I'll look at diversity by region for L21, U152 and SRY2627 as well.

Regards,
Mike

[A.D.]

sorry meant R-L21 from the map on rms link
I'm still getting mixed up all these letters and numbers but i hope you got what i was trying to get at..

[MHammers]

MHammers, is it too much difficult my name? Gioiello.

Unfortunately I have lost excel on my computer and I haven't seen the supplements, but after dinner I'll go to see them at another computer.

You speak of percentages. But as regards what? Of course if are calculated on the R1b haplogroup, Poland has much less than Italy.

As regards R-L51 Argiedude demonstrated that Italy has the highest percentage and the highest variance.

Appreciable the irony of Mike: "I  don't see this as a Holocene series of events, at least the first half of it". But this was just the Vizachero's theory. Is he a very powerful man? Fortunately I live very far.

Sorry about the typo.  As to the study, the variances they calculated are not the most informative.  Only 10 markers were used and they don't have M412 broken down by each sample, which is a shame.  It does however show M412 has a collectively lower variance than L23 in the same populations, .248 to .149.  So, any elevated variance in Italy L51 seems to be an exception and doesn't necessarily indicate an origin there considering everything else around it.  For L23* they do break it down.  Romania, Turkey, Pakistan, and the Caucasus are higher than Italy, Hungary, Greece, Germany, and Slovakia.  

[rms2]

sorry meant R-L21 from the map on rms link
I'm still getting mixed up all these letters and numbers but i hope you got what i was trying to get at..

France is grossly under tested. It is likely that L21 is widespread throughout France.

[vineviz]

I took the S116 (P312) all country stats and sorted them by "TD."  I believe this is Total Diversity.  Even if it isn't you can see the Average Variance in the last column.   It seems strange that Vaucluse is depicted.  Unless I'm missing something it is a departm

Td is coalescent time (in thousands of years).

SE is "standard error".

VV

[Mikewww]

How far east does R-P312 go?

Even though the Myres study did not do extensive sampling (numbers-wise) R-P312 (S116) showed up (Table S4) places as far east as:

Estonia
Hungary
Serbia
Croatia
Kosovo
Romania
Crete

Belarus (Northeast)
Ukraine (West, West-Central & Central)
Cossacs (Adygea)
Abkhazes (South Caucasus)
Cherkessians (NW Caucasus)
Jordan (Amman & Dead Sea)

Russia (North, South & Central)
Komis (Perm Oblast, Russia)
Tatars (Kazan, Russia)
Bashkirs-Southeast (Bashkortostan, Russia)


Some would say R-L21* is "Britano-Irish" but amongst the places above it shows up are:
Croatia
Kosovo
Russia (South & Central)

[Mikewww]

Vince V. took the Myres data and created a couple of maps based on variance.  When he posted this he said he didn't trust the dates, but wanted to show the variances relative to geography.  Here is his P312 map.

http://www.4shared.com/photo/FR6sW3T2/R-P312_Myres_Var_Map_by_Vizach.html

This actually matches nicely with the DNA project data.  The Alps and west into SE France are the areas of highest variance (and diversity.)  I think countries to the east might have higher variance but the sample sizes are very low and you have special groups like the Ashkenzi Jews that need to be accounted for.

SE France does a have a nice mix of R-U152, R-P312*, R-SRY2627 and a little R-L21.

East (of Germany) Europe & East Mediterranean (but no Italy) _ 107.4%
East (of Germany) Europe & East Mediterranean (incl S. Italy) _ 105.0%
Alpine & Cisalpine _ 103.2%
France _____________ 101.4%
Italy ______________ 100.9%
England ____________ 99.2%
Ireland ____________ 98.3%
Germany ____________ 97.2%
Iberia _____________ 96.0%
Scotland ___________ 93.7%
Scandinavia ________ 92.6%
Low Countries ______ 88.0%
Aquitaine & Pyrenees 86.6%
Wales ______________ 82.4%

.......
France does have high diversity so I think it is a potential candidate for an origin point for R-P312, although it could be receiving its diversity because of being a kind of cross-roads for Western Europe.  There are enough test results so I broke France into regions.  Here is the diversity by region of France.

Southeast ____________ 109.7% (Rhône-Alpes, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Auvergne, Limousin)
North & Central ______ 107.5% (Basse-Normandie, Champagne-Ardenne, Haute-Normandie, Île-de-France, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Picardy)
North Atlantic _______ 99.6%  (Bretagne, Pays de la Loire, Poitou-Charentes)
Aquitaine & Pyrenees _ 95.8%  (Aquitaine, Midi-Pyrénées, Languedoc-Roussillon)
Northeast ____________ 94.4%  (Alsace, Borgogne, Franche-Comté, Lorraine)

The thing that jumps out is the high diversity in the Southeast. This is the mountainous area of France that includes the Alps and Central Massif. Of course this is right next to the Alpine Countries (Switzerland, Austria & Cisalpine Gaul/Italy).  The Alpine countries also have high diversity and therefore this whole region could be an origination point for R-P312.
....