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Author Topic: Some Stats From FTDNA's Ancestral Origins Database  (Read 1017 times)
rms2
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« on: April 17, 2010, 10:41:24 AM »

As of this morning, here are some interesting statistics from FTDNA's Ancestral Origins database regarding men who have been y-dna tested to at least 12 STR markers.

British Isles Total = 53,261

Western Europe Total = 27,548

For Western Europe, I included the following countries:

Austria; Belgium; Czech Republic; Denmark; France; Germany; Italy; Netherlands; Norway; Portugal; Spain; Sweden, and Switzerland.

Here are the separate totals for each country, beginning with the British Isles:

England = 20,461

Scotland = 9,514

Wales = 1,713

Northern Ireland = 607

United Kingdom = 9,077

Ireland = 11,889

Total = 53, 261



Western Europe

Austria = 519

Belgium = 449

Czech Republic = 547

Denmark = 718

France = 2,883

Germany = 10,385

Italy = 2,968

Netherlands = 1,434

Norway = 1,137

Portugal = 670

Spain = 2,919

Sweden = 1,400

Switzerland = 1,519

Total = 27,548


The overall total for all these countries together, including the nations of the British Isles, is 80,809.

British Isles Proportion = 53,261/80,809 =    66%

Western Europe Proportion = 27,548/80,809 = 34%

Since my primary interest is R1b, I restricted myself to Western and Northern Europe and did not include Eastern and Southeastern Europe; but, honestly, I don't think including those regions would do much to reduce the overall preponderance of British samples in the Ancestral Origins database.

Germany has the highest representation of any non-British Isles western European nation, yet England alone has almost twice as many entries as Germany, and little Ireland has over 1,500 more entries than Germany.

I think it is essential to keep these figures in mind when considering the European origins of any haplogroup or subclade.



« Last Edit: April 17, 2010, 11:33:01 AM by rms2 » Logged

alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2010, 11:21:15 AM »

For the British isles to have two-thirds of the European sample when it really should be 10% of Europe suggests overrepresentation by a factor of about 6 or 7.  Just imagine if 6 out of every 7 British Isles people were deleted from the database - how many of the more modest clusters would become invisible?  That is the reason why I think there could be a world of continental STR clusters within L21 etc that simply are invisible due to the small sample.  
« Last Edit: April 18, 2010, 04:16:26 AM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
RickA
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« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2010, 08:45:49 PM »

Germany, eh?
« Last Edit: April 17, 2010, 08:46:16 PM by RickA » Logged

R-DF27+ Z196-
rms2
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« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2010, 09:30:00 PM »

Germany, eh?

You're not thinking World Cup already, are you? ;-)

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RickA
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« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2010, 09:51:20 PM »

lol...of course I am!
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2010, 04:26:54 AM »

( would also add that the British Isles is so overrepresented that where a STR cluster has many members in the isles and say only one or two on the continent then you should probably multiply the continental total by 6 or 7 to adjust for the database bias.  In other words notionally multiply this up before declaring a cluster an 'isles' one. Bear in mind too that this means that a small 'isles' cluster of 6, 7 or perhaps more that is in reality equally common on the continent as the isles may be completely invisible on the continent due to sample size. 
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2010, 10:33:51 PM »

Rich, I used your data and I attempted to "normalize" the R-L21* distribution to account for the huge differences in DNA testing penetration by country.

Keep in mind that the population of Germany is larger than all of the British
Isles. The population of France is about the same as all of the British Isles.

If you look at the proportion of the following R-L21* "hotspots" (we think) in
the Isles and compare that with two countries on the continent where R-L21* is showing up in force here is what you get when normalized for testing rates and populations.

Among the countries listed below, here is the total normalized population of
R-L21* expected per country as a proportion of all of the below countries:

Ireland 8% (of the total)

Scotland 4%

Wales 5%

England 21% (so England is the biggest R-L21* country in the Isles)

Germany 13%

France 49% (that's right, France is large state that is under tested)

In summary, of the above countries it is projected that 49% of all R-L21* found will be in France. 

I take this all with a grain of salt since the continental data is too low anyway. Perhaps more importantly, I think in large part the commercial databases reflect those who immigrated to the U.S.

I'll double check my math (remember all of this analysis is free.) If you are
interested in the details of the math I can go through that but this is based on
the FTDNA origins database for total tested per country, 2001 population census estimates from Wikipedia and R-L21* confirmed folks in the project and the spreadsheet under "FILES".
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R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>S6365>L705.2(&CTS11744,CTS6621)
NealtheRed
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« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2010, 10:42:33 PM »

Thanks for posting these numbers, Rich and Mike.

It honestly puts everything in perspective.

 
« Last Edit: April 26, 2010, 10:50:30 PM by NealtheRed » Logged

Y-DNA: R-Z255 (L159.2+) - Downing (Irish Sea)


MTDNA: HV4a1 - Centrella (Avellino, Italy)


Ysearch: 4PSCK



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