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Mark Jost
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« Reply #25 on: February 17, 2012, 06:37:26 PM »

DF21 shows:
AKGen: 116   Rgen: 71
AK25Age: 2900   R25Age: 1775
M#: 1291   R30Age: 2130
MR%: 0.187087378640777   R35Age: 2485
AK=Anatole Klyosov   
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148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #26 on: February 17, 2012, 07:06:22 PM »

Using my beta AK adjusted mutation counting and my Revised mutation rates (shown as MR#), I have 24-67marker guys age as 1,800 at 25years per generation:

AKGen: 152   Rgen: 72
AK25Age: 3800   R25Age: 1800
M#: 383                  R30Age: 2160
MR%: 0.23818407960199   R35Age: 2520
AK=Anatole Klyosov   



If every p314.2 person originated in one guy in 200AD  and have spread since in a very scattered way all along the furthest Atlantic fringe then we must be talking about a dispersal in historic times by people in the habit of moving about by boat. Its distribution covers the entire Atlantic seaboard of Ireland and Scotland which is a huge area and probably involved abut 20+ different tribal/clan areas in early Medieval terms so its not easily explained by one tribe moving from A to B.  So who was moving about leaving DNA scattered through so many different territories at some point between 200AD and lets say 1000AD (because it seems to be pre-surname)? Hmmm. 
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« Reply #27 on: February 18, 2012, 12:15:53 AM »


So who was moving about leaving DNA scattered through so many different territories at some point between 200AD and lets say 1000AD (because it seems to be pre-surname)? Hmmm. 
Érainn ???

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148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #28 on: February 18, 2012, 08:25:27 AM »

I dont think the Errain theory makes as much sense now that we are talking a much later period for p314.2.  The Errain are nowadays generally interpreted (contra O'Rahilly) as the Bronze Age inhabitants of Ireland, the name meaning 'people of Ireland'.  The term probably just meant the locals in contrast to  later incomers and it wouldnt have been a specific lineage descended from one guy in the way the genealogies make all of them descend from Conaire Mor.   Any connection would have been very remote between the Errain tribes of SW and NE Ireland by 200AD.  
« Last Edit: February 18, 2012, 08:26:37 AM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
Mike Walsh
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« Reply #29 on: February 18, 2012, 09:50:17 AM »

The northern half of Germany has a lot of Danish influence. This throws us back into the possibility of recombination. The 22 at 390 and 13 at 388 are consistent with I1 and I2 haplogroups. How can the signature be Irish and Scandinavian at the same time?
This is not applicable from everything we know about the Y chromsome. Hg I split from Hg tens of thousands of years ago. The STR correlation is strictly random "convergence."
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #30 on: February 18, 2012, 10:07:31 AM »

So, what is the estimated age of p314.2 now?  How does it compare to DF21 as a whole?  I would like to know the age of p314.2 because its thin, very farflung and maritime looking distribution means it must have been spread in boats.  
All of these age estimates are approximations and are subject to mutation rate arguments. They are based on 67 STR ht's and are expressed in thousands of ybp. The ranges are the one sigma (68% probability) ranges. Double them if you want the two sigma (95% probability) ranges.

DF21's closest relative in L21 seems to be Z255. It's interclade MRCA range with Z255 puts a maximum on DF21's age since that interclade man would have had to be L21*.

Z255 & DF21 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 2.8 (3.4-2.2)  N=573


The interclade ages for Z246 and P314.2 put a minimum age for DF21 since this interclade man would have have had to be DF21+

Z246 & P314.2 Interclade DF21* MRCA Age _ 3.9 (4.6-3.2)  N=89


Remember the two sigma ranges are double. We can say with 95% confidence that DF21's MRCA is no older than 4.0 ypb (3.4+.6) and not younger than 2.5 ypb (3.2-.7) At one sigma, we can say with 68% confidence DF21 is no older than 3.4 ybp and not younger than 3.2 ybp. The implication is about 3.3 ybp is the best bet or "closest to the pin" (golf term.)

Depending upon how deep of ancestry you care about, the estimates below may actually be more important as P314.2 and Z246 and the rest of DF21* may have wondered apart from each for several hundred years before their expansions began. Here are the rough one sigma K ybp expansion ages for Z246 and P314.2.

Z246 Clade Coalescence Age ____________ 2.5 (2.8-2.1)  N=54

P314.2 Clade Coalescence Age __________ 1.8 (2.0-1.5)  N=35
« Last Edit: February 18, 2012, 10:18:08 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #31 on: February 19, 2012, 12:47:05 PM »

Mike - I totally agree that the SNP could have been around for a while before its expansion but it is also true that the current  p314.2 is down to a common ancestor probably in the fairly early AD period.  I would imagine too that if the continental outliers (which I understand they are in terms of STRs) were removed then most of the p314.2 MacMartin supercluster would share an even more recent ancestor.  Its hard not to come to the conclusion that today's distribution of p314.2 is mainly down to historic period sea borne travel of some sort.  On the other hand its spread among so many surnames and over such a vast area of the Atlantic seaboard suggests to me it was pre-surname.

In terms of deeper time, it would be very interesting to know where DF21 has located   
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« Reply #32 on: February 20, 2012, 09:37:39 AM »

Mike - I totally agree that the SNP could have been around for a while before its expansion but it is also true that the current  p314.2 is down to a common ancestor probably in the fairly early AD period.  I would imagine too that if the continental outliers (which I understand they are in terms of STRs) were removed then most of the p314.2 MacMartin supercluster would share an even more recent ancestor.  Its hard not to come to the conclusion that today's distribution of p314.2 is mainly down to historic period sea borne travel of some sort.  On the other hand its spread among so many surnames and over such a vast area of the Atlantic seaboard suggests to me it was pre-surname.

In terms of deeper time, it would be very interesting to know where DF21 has located    
Just from the interclade and intraclade MRCA and coalescence estimates, I'd guess DF21 was quite active somewhere from 1800 to 800 BC. Where I don't know, but we do have the following P314.2 types of non-Isles to consider with the Isles folks:

f208773   Reith   zzPredicted   Germany, Lower Saxony, Hanover
fN28650   Conrardy   R-L21/DF21/P314*   Luxembourg, Pratz
fN5924   Måland(Hjelmeland)   R-L21/DF21/P314*   Norway, Rogaland, Hjelmeland

Reith needs to be contacted and confirmed if he is P314 or not.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2012, 09:38:05 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #33 on: February 20, 2012, 09:53:46 AM »

. . .

Reith needs to be contacted and confirmed if he is P314 or not.


Want me to email him on the subject?

We have a little bit in the General Fund and could offer him the test gratis.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #34 on: February 20, 2012, 12:20:55 PM »

. . .

Reith needs to be contacted and confirmed if he is P314 or not.


Want me to email him on the subject?

We have a little bit in the General Fund and could offer him the test gratis.
I would vote "yes" on this. Alan?  This is your clade.

There's always a risk of a negative hit, but here is what I'm looking at as far as closest GD's @67 to Reif, if I throw out the two L513's guys in the GD=12 range.

GD=0 388=13 406s1=11 439=13 390=23
 f208773 Reith Predicted Germany, Lower Saxony, Hanover 21-314-P *

GD=11 390=23
 fN17390 Moore R-L21 zzUnkOrigin 21-246-1417

GD=11 388=13 406s1=11 390=23
 f80166 Sullivan R-L21/DF21/P314/L362 Ireland   21-314-P13-A

GD=12 390=23
 f71529 Moore R-L21 Ireland, Ulster, Co. Antrim 21-246-1417

GD=13 388=13 406s1=11 439=13 390=23
 f171553 Hackett R-L21/DF21/P314   Ireland, Ulster, Co. Tyrone 21-314-P12

GD=13 388=13 406s1=11 439=13  390=23
 f182014 McHugh R-L21/DF21/P314 Scotland 21-314-P12

GD=13 388=13 406s1=11 390=23
 f186325 Carey Predicted   Ireland   21-314-P13-A

GD=13 388=13 406s1=11 390=23
 f135483 Carter R-L21/DF21/P314/L362 England   21-314-P13-A

GD=13 406s1=11 390=23
 f126862 Sullivan R-L21/DF21/P314 Ireland, Munster, Co. Cork 21-314-P13-A

GD=13 439=13 390=23
 fN61117   Thornton R-L21   Ireland   21-1624

GD=13 439=13 390=23
 f130051 Moore R-L21/DF21/Z246/DF25/DF5 Scotland 21-246-1417

The key for me is that Reif is 388=13 406s1=11 and 388 is very slow. Even if he is P314.2-, I think he is very good prospect for DF21.
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #35 on: February 20, 2012, 05:57:40 PM »

. . .

Reith needs to be contacted and confirmed if he is P314 or not.


Want me to email him on the subject?

We have a little bit in the General Fund and could offer him the test gratis.
I would vote "yes" on this. Alan?  This is your clade.

There's always a risk of a negative hit, but here is what I'm looking at as far as closest GD's @67 to Reif, if I throw out the two L513's guys in the GD=12 range.

GD=0 388=13 406s1=11 439=13 390=23
 f208773 Reith Predicted Germany, Lower Saxony, Hanover 21-314-P *

GD=11 390=23
 fN17390 Moore R-L21 zzUnkOrigin 21-246-1417

GD=11 388=13 406s1=11 390=23
 f80166 Sullivan R-L21/DF21/P314/L362 Ireland   21-314-P13-A

GD=12 390=23
 f71529 Moore R-L21 Ireland, Ulster, Co. Antrim 21-246-1417

GD=13 388=13 406s1=11 439=13 390=23
 f171553 Hackett R-L21/DF21/P314   Ireland, Ulster, Co. Tyrone 21-314-P12

GD=13 388=13 406s1=11 439=13  390=23
 f182014 McHugh R-L21/DF21/P314 Scotland 21-314-P12

GD=13 388=13 406s1=11 390=23
 f186325 Carey Predicted   Ireland   21-314-P13-A

GD=13 388=13 406s1=11 390=23
 f135483 Carter R-L21/DF21/P314/L362 England   21-314-P13-A

GD=13 406s1=11 390=23
 f126862 Sullivan R-L21/DF21/P314 Ireland, Munster, Co. Cork 21-314-P13-A

GD=13 439=13 390=23
 fN61117   Thornton R-L21   Ireland   21-1624

GD=13 439=13 390=23
 f130051 Moore R-L21/DF21/Z246/DF25/DF5 Scotland 21-246-1417

The key for me is that Reif is 388=13 406s1=11 and 388 is very slow. Even if he is P314.2-, I think he is very good prospect for DF21.

Yes I would vote for Reith too.  Just sounds the most interesting out of the bunch whether or not he is P314.2 or DF21*.  In general I find the outliers (geographically or in STR terms) of cluster most interesting given the big dominance of Britain and Ireland in this hobby.  Its interesting that p314.2 would appear to have a more northerly and easterly mainland European distribution than L21 as a whole. In contrast it kind of looks extremely western in the isles.    Its a little odd which is why the Vikings (and I am not a wannabe Viking) keep springing to mind.  

I also am aware of another person (American I think) with a south Germanic surname who is clearly part of the McMartin cluster as he is a fairly close match on FTDNA.  He must be p314.2.  However, he appears to want to remain private and I will always respect that.  That doesnt stop it being interesting that there is yet another person of apparently Germanic background in the cluster.  It just seems to me that continental p314.2 seems to be more north and east of the main continental concentration of L21 despite the fact that in the isles it could hardly be more western.  

What ever happened to the guy with the Spanish name who was negative for p314.2 but seemed to have STR similarities?  Was he ever tested for DF21?
« Last Edit: February 20, 2012, 05:58:33 PM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
Mike Walsh
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« Reply #36 on: February 20, 2012, 06:41:17 PM »

What ever happened to the guy with the Spanish name who was negative for p314.2 but seemed to have STR similarities?  Was he ever tested for DF21?

You can see him the 11-13 project.
f171804   Sánchez   R-L21 Spain, Andalucía, Córdoba

He looks like he could fit right in with the McCarthy/Sullivan P314.2+ L362+ people because of this.

390=23 388=14 389ii-i=15 406s1=11 534=16

He is +2 at 388 which is really rare for this slow mover.  This is a puzzler as he really does look like a fit for this part of P314.2 that I label 21-314-P-13A.

He is different from the rest of the group, though, with 617=12 instead of 13 and the very unusual 413=14,14 instead of 23,23.

Here are his SNP results. He has never been tested for DF21.

R1b1a2a1a1b4    M269+ L21+ U152- U106- P66- P314.2- M37- M222- L96- L226- L193- L159.2- L144-

Very puzzling.

The other Spaniard who is puzzling is this guy. You can also see him in the 11-13 project.

f202314   Fernández Predicted Spain, Asturias

He is a true 406s1=11 and 617=13 but is L513-.  We never tested him for P314.2 but since he is 388=12 I would expect P314.2-.  I guess DF21 is another option for him too.

I can contact either by email.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2012, 06:47:30 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #37 on: February 20, 2012, 10:24:42 PM »

I emailed Reith and offered him the test. I think he will go for it.
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« Reply #38 on: February 22, 2012, 08:42:50 PM »

I haven't heard anything back from Reith. Hmmm . . .
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« Reply #39 on: February 25, 2012, 05:30:29 PM »

The tribe of Mairtine is thought to have come ashore with the Ulaidhe, Dal Riada, and tribes of the Erainne, in the Dingle Peninsula about 3000 years ago. This puts them into the 3rd or 4th wave, as the Picts are Fir Bolg came earlier.

They obviously came by boat.

 A question I have been asking is did the P314.2 SNP happen in Ireland as a result of  change, sunlight, or other forces? If so, any geographical outliers would be a result of the Irish raiders, and not vice versa.

There is some talk of recombination, as the 393 and 388 markers are very similar with I1b or similar. However, that is unlikely at this time, or with our current tests, to determine that possibility. However, it would not be a surprise, as Celts and Norse mixed frequently in Ireland and Scotland.

Anything involving the Picts is a guess.

If the SNP predates the arrival in Ireland, then there should be more positive matches in the continental Europe Celtic population(s). The DNA signature is definately not German, Scandanavian, or Anglo-Saxon. That leaves speculation open for Milesian, Belgae, or Thrace.

Once we can reckon accurately the age for the SNP, a lot of other things fall into place.
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #40 on: February 25, 2012, 06:33:08 PM »

I emailed Reith and offered him the test. I think he will go for it.

How about encouraging Sanchez to test for DF21.  He is p314.2 negative but similar.  If he is someone who was on the same line as that that led to p314.2 but branched off shortly before the SNP then he would almost certainly be DF21, given it is estimated significantly older than P314.2.  If Sanchez is DF21* and not some sort of chance convergence then its interesting.  Also is there any possibility that he was P314.2 but somehow the SNP was deleted?  I am not up on the science of SNPs so I have no idea if such a thing can happen.  Either way Sanchez would be a very good bet for DF21* I would imagine.  As for the origin of P314.2, that can be narrowed down by understanding more about DF21.  The origin has to be in the DF21 world around 1800 years ago give or take  Question is what was the DF21 world at that time.  It would be interesting to compare the variance of DF21* in Britain to that of Ireland.
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« Reply #41 on: February 25, 2012, 07:20:37 PM »

I emailed Reith and offered him the test. I think he will go for it.

How about encouraging Sanchez to test for DF21.  He is p314.2 negative but similar.  If he is someone who was on the same line as that that led to p314.2 but branched off shortly before the SNP then he would almost certainly be DF21, given it is estimated significantly older than P314.2.  If Sanchez is DF21* and not some sort of chance convergence then its interesting.  Also is there any possibility that he was P314.2 but somehow the SNP was deleted?  I am not up on the science of SNPs so I have no idea if such a thing can happen.  Either way Sanchez would be a very good bet for DF21* I would imagine.  As for the origin of P314.2, that can be narrowed down by understanding more about DF21.  The origin has to be in the DF21 world around 1800 years ago give or take  Question is what was the DF21 world at that time.  It would be interesting to compare the variance of DF21* in Britain to that of Ireland.

Do you have his kit number handy?

I will email him on the subject.
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« Reply #42 on: February 26, 2012, 03:43:00 PM »

I emailed Reith and offered him the test. I think he will go for it.

How about encouraging Sanchez to test for DF21.  He is p314.2 negative but similar.  If he is someone who was on the same line as that that led to p314.2 but branched off shortly before the SNP then he would almost certainly be DF21, given it is estimated significantly older than P314.2.  If Sanchez is DF21* and not some sort of chance convergence then its interesting.  Also is there any possibility that he was P314.2 but somehow the SNP was deleted?  I am not up on the science of SNPs so I have no idea if such a thing can happen.  Either way Sanchez would be a very good bet for DF21* I would imagine.  As for the origin of P314.2, that can be narrowed down by understanding more about DF21.  The origin has to be in the DF21 world around 1800 years ago give or take  Question is what was the DF21 world at that time.  It would be interesting to compare the variance of DF21* in Britain to that of Ireland.

Do you have his kit number handy?

I will email him on the subject.

Is this the Sanchez you are talking about?
You can see him the 11-13 project.
f171804   Sánchez   R-L21 Spain, Andalucía, Córdoba

He looks like he could fit right in with the McCarthy/Sullivan P314.2+ L362+ people because of this.

390=23 388=14 389ii-i=15 406s1=11 534=16

He is +2 at 388 which is really rare for this slow mover.  This is a puzzler as he really does look like a fit for this part of P314.2 that I label 21-314-P-13A.

He is different from the rest of the group, though, with 617=12 instead of 13 and the very unusual 413=14,14 instead of 23,23.

Here are his SNP results. He has never been tested for DF21.

R1b1a2a1a1b4    M269+ L21+ U152- U106- P66- P314.2- M37- M222- L96- L226- L193- L159.2- L144-

Very puzzling.

The other Spaniard who is puzzling is this guy. You can also see him in the 11-13 project.

f202314   Fernández Predicted Spain, Asturias

He is a true 406s1=11 and 617=13 but is L513-.  We never tested him for P314.2 but since he is 388=12 I would expect P314.2-.  I guess DF21 is another option for him too.

I can contact either by email.
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« Reply #43 on: February 26, 2012, 03:59:41 PM »

I emailed Reith and offered him the test. I think he will go for it.

How about encouraging Sanchez to test for DF21.  He is p314.2 negative but similar.  If he is someone who was on the same line as that that led to p314.2 but branched off shortly before the SNP then he would almost certainly be DF21, given it is estimated significantly older than P314.2.  If Sanchez is DF21* and not some sort of chance convergence then its interesting.  Also is there any possibility that he was P314.2 but somehow the SNP was deleted?  I am not up on the science of SNPs so I have no idea if such a thing can happen.  Either way Sanchez would be a very good bet for DF21* I would imagine.  As for the origin of P314.2, that can be narrowed down by understanding more about DF21.  The origin has to be in the DF21 world around 1800 years ago give or take  Question is what was the DF21 world at that time.  It would be interesting to compare the variance of DF21* in Britain to that of Ireland.

Do you have his kit number handy?

I will email him on the subject.

Is this the Sanchez you are talking about?
You can see him the 11-13 project.
f171804   Sánchez   R-L21 Spain, Andalucía, Córdoba

He looks like he could fit right in with the McCarthy/Sullivan P314.2+ L362+ people because of this.

390=23 388=14 389ii-i=15 406s1=11 534=16

He is +2 at 388 which is really rare for this slow mover.  This is a puzzler as he really does look like a fit for this part of P314.2 that I label 21-314-P-13A.

He is different from the rest of the group, though, with 617=12 instead of 13 and the very unusual 413=14,14 instead of 23,23.

Here are his SNP results. He has never been tested for DF21.

R1b1a2a1a1b4    M269+ L21+ U152- U106- P66- P314.2- M37- M222- L96- L226- L193- L159.2- L144-

Very puzzling.

The other Spaniard who is puzzling is this guy. You can also see him in the 11-13 project.

f202314   Fernández Predicted Spain, Asturias

He is a true 406s1=11 and 617=13 but is L513-.  We never tested him for P314.2 but since he is 388=12 I would expect P314.2-.  I guess DF21 is another option for him too.

I can contact either by email.

Yes thats the Sanchez.  Just wonder if he is some sort of parallel branch from some 'pre-P314.2' DF21* ancestor living at some point before the SNP occurred.  Now that it is believed that P314.2 is not that old then much of prehistory the ancestors of P314.2 people remained DF21*.  A DF21* who looks similar to the P314.2 folks would be very interesting.  In fact the entire story of DF21* has become interesting to me since P314.2 has been dated relatively late. 
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« Reply #44 on: February 26, 2012, 07:12:55 PM »

Okay, I emailed Sanchez. Hopefully, he will respond (unlike Reith, who has not replied yet at all).
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