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Nolan Admin - Glenn Allen Nolen
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« Reply #25 on: April 10, 2010, 06:20:26 PM »

“No, I'm ignoring routes of entry because they are irrelevant to the question.

Five men get in five cars in New York. Three days later, they all end up in Los Angeles. They came to Los Angeles from New York, regardless of which route(s) they took to get there.”

Except one of those five men got lonely on his drive to Los Angeles and impregnated a cocktail waitress from a hotel bar somewhere along his route. Nine months later, she has a baby boy. Try telling that boy when he grows up the route his father took was irrelevant.
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vineviz
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« Reply #26 on: April 10, 2010, 08:28:16 PM »

Try telling that boy when he grows up the route his father took was irrelevant.
Now you are grasping at straws.  The man is now not a New Yorker because he happened to stop for a drink in Cleveland?  Are you kidding?

Focus, just for a moment, on the relevant details:

  • He started in New York
    He ended up in Los Angles
    Therefore, he drove from New York to Los Angeles.

That's it.
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NealtheRed
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« Reply #27 on: April 10, 2010, 09:27:32 PM »


Sorry about digressing... LOL Highlander?
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Nolan Admin - Glenn Allen Nolen
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« Reply #28 on: April 10, 2010, 11:14:17 PM »

Vince:

I was going to respond, but I stopped myself. We are not going to solve this fields problems on these forums, boards, and lists. Let me know when you get an award for genetic research. I’ll send you a nice congratulatory note. Until then, we simply disagree.
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Jean M
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« Reply #29 on: April 12, 2010, 07:47:59 AM »

.. Anatole Klosov expressed a multiple route hypothesis for how R1b1b2 immigrated into Europe.... Here is my interpretation of the routes he is articulating.

0) Existence in the Russian Plains (?Pontic Steppes?) 5000-4000 BC
1) Directly into Central Europe as the Kurgan Culture ?3000 BC?
2) To Anatolia into Southeastern Europe
3) Through the Caucasus 4000 BC to the Middle East
    then all the way across North Africa 3500-2800 BC
    and into Iberia 2800BC
    finally into Continental Europe as the Bell Beaker Culture 2800-1900 BC

I'm not saying I agree with everything he is saying.  I'm just trying to understand it.

I think his idea is that P312 arose on route 3 along the way in North Africa.  L21 then arose on route 3 at the end of the journey in Continental Europe.

I'm not sure which route U106 was carried along.   Is he saying the direct "Kurgan" route, route 1?  Michael Maddi thinks U106 is older in Poland and East Europe than in Germany and the Isles.  Poland is the direct route from Russia, along the north side of the Carpathians, is it not?

He doesn't say much about route 2 but I presume that since it was Anatolian staged, it would have went on to the Balkans and Greece, being Mycenaeans and I don't know else.  Is that the implication of route 2?

He is trying to make sense of a very complex picture of intertwining, back-and-forth migration  that, if we could put it all on one map, would look like some kittens had a lot of fun with a ball of wool. He is also hampered by a limited grasp of the archaeological evidence.

0) the Russian Plains.
Vince concludes that this is wishful thinking as an entry point for R1b1b2, in that we don't have evidence from current populations to support it. I take his word for that, naturally, but feel that there are stronger reasons to postulate an entry into Europe from the Near East (i.e. the V88 in Cameroon) than the DNA currently washing around Siberia. See http://www.buildinghistory.org/distantpast/images/R1b1aV88.jpg

Current populations cannot possibly reflect those of 5000-4000 BC on the steppe, which has had a series of back-and-forth invasions/migrations since then. We do have aDNA from the steppe east of the Urals, which is so solidly R1a1a that I doubt anyone could seriously argue that R1a1a wasn't also west of the Urals on the Pontic-Caspian steppe, in the progenitor culture of that in which the aDNA was found. So that side of the Indo-European story is pretty well sorted, despite the denials from the recent paper on R1a1a.  

I'd like to see aDNA from the Crimea and North Caucasus. I suspect that R1b1b2+ (L23?) was there c. 3700 BC (Maykop Culture and derivative Kemi Oba Culture) having arrived from somewhere in present-day Iran, Syria or Turkey.

1)  Directly into Central Europe as the Kurgan Culture.
He doesn't understand that even in the old version of the "Kurgan"  theory (as expounded by Gimbutas) several routes at different times were postulated, not one Kurgan route. PIE spread in pretty well all directions, which include most of the routes he supposes (except that we can cut out North Africa and go straight from Italy to Iberia). He may possibly have in mind the route around the Carpathians, as you suppose.

2) To Anatolia into Southeastern Europe
There were so many different incursions into Anatolia by PIE-speakers at different times that you are most likely to find a high diversity of R1b1b2 there, and all sorts of correspondences with SE Europe. Mostly the direction of flow was from SE Europe to Anatolia, as far as one can make out. But if my suspicions are right, there may be R1b1b2 surviving in eastern Anatolia which is earlier than that in the Maykop Culture.

3) Through the Caucasus 4000 BC to the Middle East
Again the wrong direction of flow. If there is one really solid bit of evidence for migration it is up the Danube. This appears to be the chief P312 flow.  

See http://www.buildinghistory.org/distantpast/images/SpeculativeR1b.jpg

« Last Edit: April 12, 2010, 05:18:20 PM by Jean M » Logged
Mike Walsh
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« Reply #30 on: April 12, 2010, 12:55:25 PM »

.. Anatole Klosov expressed a multiple route hypothesis for how R1b1b2 immigrated into Europe.... Here is my interpretation of the routes he is articulating.

0) Existence in the Russian Plains (?Pontic Steppes?) 5000-4000 BC
1) Directly into Central Europe as the Kurgan Culture ?3000 BC?
2) To Anatolia into Southeastern Europe
3) Through the Caucasus 4000 BC to the Middle East
    then all the way across North Africa 3500-2800 BC
    and into Iberia 2800BC
    finally into Continental Europe as the Bell Beaker Culture 2800-1900 BC

I'm not saying I agree with everything he is saying.  I'm just trying to understand it.

I think his idea is that P312 arose on route 3 along the way in North Africa.  L21 then arose on route 3 at the end of the journey in Continental Europe.
.....
....
3) Through the Caucasus 4000 BC to the Middle East
Again the wrong direction of flow. If there is one really solid bit of evidence for migration it is up the Danube. This appears to be the chief P312 flow.  

See http://www.buildinghistory.org/distantpast/images/SpeculativeR1b.jpg

I know VV referred to incongruencies between the phlyogenetic tree for R1b1b2 and some of these routes.  The one that seems off to me is

3) Through the Caucasus 4000 BC to the Middle East
    then all the way across North Africa 3500-2800 BC
    and into Iberia 2800BC
    finally into Continental Europe as the Bell Beaker Culture 2800-1900 BC


Anatole goes on to associate P312 with Bell Beakers.  I can accept a P312 association with Beaker folks and I can accept "out of Iberia" in Copper Age times for Beakers but I don't see any reason to think they got to Iberia through North Africa.

Not that I'm against a North African route, but P312 has ancestors that we should see a trail of somewhere, we should see the L23* to P310* trail that precedes both P312+ and U106+.  I think VV is saying the age from P310's expansion to P312 and U106's is all fairly quick.  I don't see how they happened on both side of the Mediterranean all at once, especially without U106 being close.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #31 on: April 12, 2010, 01:10:42 PM »

Quote from: Jean M link=topic=9339.msg117197#msg117197
Great map.  Thank you, Jean.

If you placed the bulk of U106/S21 on the map, where would you do it?  Would it be moving northwest just to right of the Carpathians?  

Where would P310+ be... just north or just northwest of the Black Sea?  How does that line up with VV's ht35 findings?   I don't see an arrow from Anatolia across the straits of Bosporus and Dardanelles to SE Europe.  I'm not trying to be critical, just see if that something you disagree with or just work in progress.

The reason I use the word "bulk" is that I think we all realize, depending up the exact origin of the SNP's, that a bit of U106 could have gone south with P312 folks and a bit of P312 could have gone north with U106.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2010, 01:11:59 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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Jean M
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« Reply #32 on: April 12, 2010, 02:03:47 PM »

Quote from: Mikewww link=topic=9339.msg117200#msg117200

Anatole goes on to associate P312 with Bell Beakers.  I can accept a P312 association with Beaker folks and I can accept "out of Iberia" in Copper Age times for Beakers but I don't see any reason to think they got to Iberia through North Africa.

Nor do I. There is Bell Beaker material in Northern Morocco, but that would post-date the settlement in Iberia.

However we need to be careful with this idea of "out of Iberia" for Bell Beaker. Yes it seems that the very earliest dates for the pottery are in Portugal. But Bell Beaker ware spread back along the route to the Danube. Then it spread with the other flow into Hungary and from there across Europe, down the Rhine and into the British Isles.

There was a BB spread up the Atlantic coast as far as Brittany. But it is anybody's guess at the moment which of the two routes hit British or Irish soil first. The important point I think is that the bulk of the input into the British Isles genetically, culturally and linguistically seems to have been from across the Channel, rather than up the Atlantic seaboard.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2010, 02:09:47 PM by Jean M » Logged
Jean M
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« Reply #33 on: April 12, 2010, 02:17:32 PM »

Quote from: Mikewww link=topic=9339.msg117201#msg117201

If you placed the bulk of U106/S21 on the map, where would you do it?  Would it be moving northwest just to right of the Carpathians?

I'm under strict instructions not to place it anywhere! Even if I could guess. I gather that forums have been torn asunder by speculations on the precise location of SNPs, which seems so pointless. We will never know. I took my life in my hands to place a couple on the map, with great big question marks. And I will repeat here the warning I gave on another forum about this map. It is HIGHLY SPECULATIVE!!! It SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS FACT, just because arrows have gone on a map. We have no ancient DNA.

Quote
I don't see an arrow from Anatolia across the straits of Bosporus and Dardanelles to SE Europe.

Why would there be an arrow there?

Bear in mind that this is a very, very simplified map, mainly intended as a visual aid for those debating a couple of complex issues. It makes no attempt to explain how R1b got into Scandinavia or Greece or various other places where the route is uncertain or appears convoluted. It sticks to the initial spread of R1b1b2+ west to the Atlantic, as I relate it to the spread of IE languages via one culture. There is a whole lot more to the R1b story.

No-one is too sure how the Hellenes reached Greece. My speculation is that they were seafarers who had been fishing the Aegean and/or trading between the Black Sea and the Aegean for some time before settling on the Greek mainland. They also had colonies in Anatolia, not to mention  around the Black Sea eventually, so sorting out a genetic trail is not exactly straightforward.

As far as we know other IE-speaking peoples left Thrace for Anatolia, not the other way around.   
« Last Edit: April 12, 2010, 02:37:01 PM by Jean M » Logged
Mike Walsh
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« Reply #34 on: April 13, 2010, 12:10:07 AM »

I will repeat here the warning I gave on another forum about this map. It is HIGHLY SPECULATIVE!!! It SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS FACT...
I think adult people can get this.  In general, forums such as this are highly speculative.  That is what the bleeding edge is all about.  A little speculation is fun.  I guess that is why people gamble.

I'm okay with speculations such as Anatole's.  However, if a speculation doesn't make sense, like I think the North African scenario and the R1b phylogeny - then one should recant.

I think it is okay to speculate that it is possible that David's Anthony's route of IE people northwestward through Poland to Germany might match up with U106's ancestral gene trail.  I'm not following U106 that closely but i think I recall Michael Maddi's thinking that U106 ancestral haplotypes are in Poland, much more so than points west through to the Isles.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2010, 12:12:32 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #35 on: April 13, 2010, 01:30:01 AM »

“I'm under strict instructions not to place it anywhere!”

Hey, one individual insisted I bring my concerns to him. What a load of crap! I knew what was coming after I did not heed that advice from the person who started the whole direct-to-consumer thing in the first place.

These types are afraid of reality and upsetting the apple cart. It’s ridiculous. My research and my family are out there. My advice is to put it all out there on the web for everyone to find. I don’t live on Fantasy Island and neither should this field of study. Unfortunately, the so-called leaders of this field of study are a bunch of lightweights who never knew what they were doing in the first place.

Anatole doesn’t have to recant a thing. He is doing what science is supposed to do: Unravel the mysteries in life.

“He is trying to make sense of a very complex picture of intertwining, back-and-forth migration that, if we could put it all on one map, would look like some kittens had a lot of fun with a ball of wool.”

Exactly and why shouldn’t he?

« Last Edit: April 13, 2010, 01:32:00 AM by Nolan Admin - Glenn Allen Nolen » Logged
vineviz
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« Reply #36 on: April 13, 2010, 02:06:24 AM »

Unfortunately, the so-called leaders of this field of study are a bunch of lightweights who never knew what they were doing in the first place.
Which "so-called leaders" are you referring to?  If this is just about your spat with David, it would seem time to move on.

Anatole doesn’t have to recant a thing. He is doing what science is supposed to do: Unravel the mysteries in life.
Anatole makes some really fundamental errors, both in his methods and his conclusions.  "Recant" is an odd word, but his work is very wrong in some important ways and stands in need of correction.
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Jean M
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« Reply #37 on: April 13, 2010, 08:19:26 AM »

“I'm under strict instructions not to place it anywhere!”

Hey, one individual insisted I bring my concerns to him. What a load of crap! I knew what was coming after I did not heed that advice from the person who started the whole direct-to-consumer thing in the first place.

I'm not sure what this is about. The "instructions" that I teasingly referred to would be more correctly described as advice from a friend, not any kind of directive, let alone from a forum administrator or moderator. I took that advice because I could see for myself the upset caused by attempting to place SNPs on a map. Some men react very badly if "their" SNP falls on the "wrong" side of a present-day border that would have meant absolutely nothing at the time.

Wikipedia has suffered from endless "edit wars" as men try to impose their personal identity onto "their" haplogroup, quite apart from all the forum strife.  
« Last Edit: April 13, 2010, 08:20:39 AM by Jean M » Logged
Jean M
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« Reply #38 on: April 13, 2010, 08:39:31 AM »

I think it is okay to speculate that it is possible that David's Anthony's route of IE people northwestward through Poland to Germany might match up with U106's ancestral gene trail.  I'm not following U106 that closely but i think I recall Michael Maddi's thinking that U106 ancestral haplotypes are in Poland, much more so than points west through to the Isles.

Could be. But one suggestion recently put forward by Vince V. on another forum is that U106 spread into Europe before P312. If so this could be the movement up the Danube about 1000 years earlier than the one I have on the map. It started  from roughly the same area of the P-C steppe as the earlier one. It entered the lower Danube c. 4,200 BC.  We can follow it in the archaeology into the Transylvanian plateau and then down the Mureş river valley into eastern Hungary. This could have fed into the Funnel Beaker Culture which brought agriculture to southern Scandinavia c. 4000 BC. For details and sources, just search the Peopling of Europe page for Funnel Beaker.  (The Funnel Beaker Culture people appear to have had lactase persistence, which they didn't get from the LBK farmers - the people who first brought agriculture to Central Europe.)  
 
If this migration actually carried R1b of any kind, then I am wrong about at least the date and possibly the source of the R1b spreading later. For at the moment I have it on the Pontic Caspian steppe no earlier than 3700 BC. Wouldn't altogether surprise me to find that some was there earlier though.

However clades in present-day populations need to be seen in the context of the many migrations that have taken place since 4000 BC. For example today the people of Austria, the Netherlands and a large part of Switzerland speak Germanic languages. Once upon a time this region was Celtic-speaking. There was a massive population shift in the post-Roman period.  
« Last Edit: April 14, 2010, 08:10:15 AM by Jean M » Logged
Jean M
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« Reply #39 on: April 13, 2010, 08:54:37 AM »

“He is trying to make sense of a very complex picture of intertwining, back-and-forth migration that, if we could put it all on one map, would look like some kittens had a lot of fun with a ball of wool.”

Exactly and why shouldn’t he?

No reason at all! :) That is what we are all trying to do. I was simply pointing out the difficulty of the endeavour.
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« Reply #40 on: April 13, 2010, 09:21:05 AM »

....  Some men react very badly if "their" SNP falls on the "wrong" side of a present-day border that would have meant absolutely nothing at the time. ...  
I hate to start sounding like a chauvinist but I am directing this criticism at men. A "real" man is interested in the truth.  My recommendation is to ignore whiners.
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vineviz
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« Reply #41 on: April 13, 2010, 09:42:56 AM »

However SNPs in present-day populations need to be seen in the context . . . .
This is just a nitpick, but let's talk about clades and not SNPs.

Placing clade MRCAs in space and time is difficult.  Placing SNPs in space and time is impossible.  I know that many of us can make the mental translation, but this is source of confusion for many that manifests in other places.

Talking about the age of SNPs, for the first man to have a SNP, etc. is confusing phylogenetically.
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Jean M
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« Reply #42 on: April 13, 2010, 10:09:36 AM »

This is just a nitpick, but let's talk about clades and not SNPs.

Placing clade MRCAs in space and time is difficult.  Placing SNPs in space and time is impossible.  I know that many of us can make the mental translation, but this is source of confusion for many that manifests in other places.

Talking about the age of SNPs, for the first man to have a SNP, etc. is confusing phylogenetically.

My mistake. Duly noted.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2010, 10:11:21 AM by Jean M » Logged
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« Reply #43 on: April 13, 2010, 10:26:16 AM »

Vince:

With all due respect, see my post above. I’m not getting into this with you. My last post on this thread didn’t even mention your name.
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Jean M
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« Reply #44 on: April 13, 2010, 10:28:27 AM »

I hate to start sounding like a chauvinist but I am directing this criticism at men. A "real" man is interested in the truth.  My recommendation is to ignore whiners.

If I had the truth (or as close as one can get to it), I'd tell it.  I have consistently done so for the last year, regardless of numerous attacks, which at one time were regularly personal. I'm pretty fireproof after 20 years of publishing stuff that somebody is bound not to like. If you look around the Internet, you can probably still find the hysterical reaction of a local amateur to me ruling out Bath as the site of the Battle of Badon (Arthur 1, Saxons 0, supposedly). You will definitely find my site pointedly sticking to my guns.  :)

But since I don't know exactly where any haplogroup or subclade arose, it seems sheer folly to go sticking these things on maps and arousing hysterical responses to no purpose. Speculation can go into text.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2010, 11:04:02 AM by Jean M » Logged
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« Reply #45 on: April 13, 2010, 05:06:06 PM »



The reason I use the word "bulk" is that I think we all realize, depending up the exact origin of the SNP's, that a bit of U106 could have gone south with P312 folks and a bit of P312 could have gone north with U106.
I think this is a definite possibility. I hate to keep harping on the same issue, but just because dividing R1b into two distinct groups along the P312/U106 divide keeps things nice and tidy for us, it doesn't mean there was necessarily a clean separation between the two in the past.
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