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Author Topic: Ratio of U106 to P312  (Read 1299 times)
vineviz
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« on: April 06, 2010, 05:46:23 PM »

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As part of another project I was working on, I had aggregated R1b1b2 data from a number of Balkan projects at FTDNA. While the likelihood of people from different areas to do DeepClade tests can be expected to vary, I think it is likely that the ratio of R-U106 to R-P312 in the projects should be an unbiased estimator of the ratio in the underlying population.

Here are the ratios of U106:P312 I observed

Balkans: 30:70
Italy: 20:80
Spain 10:90
Germany: 35:65
Poland: 45:55
Switzerland: 45:55
Czech: 30:70
Benelux: 50:50
Sweden: 35:65

Remember that the point of origin is probably NOT place with the highest frequency. Based on this rough sketch, It looks like maybe U106 has a Balkan origin , similar to P312 (though the later is more likely than U106 to possibly have an Asian origin). To me it looks like P312 may have arrived after U106, possibly with, but unlikely after.

VV
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2010, 06:34:16 PM »

....
Remember that the point of origin is probably NOT place with the highest frequency. Based on this rough sketch, It looks like maybe U106 has a Balkan origin , similar to P312 (though the later is more likely than U106 to possibly have an Asian origin). To me it looks like P312 may have arrived after U106, possibly with, but unlikely after.
The question this draws out for me is two-fold. 
1) What is the most likely difference in TMRCA's for U106 versus P312?
2) Given the likely difference in age, how far away from each other geographically might they have been at the beginning of their expansion?

If they are were adjacent to each other geographically and culturally during their early expansions, it would be quite probable for some P312 folks to have wondered off with the U106 main group and vica versa.
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R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>S6365>L705.2(&CTS11744,CTS6621)
GoldenHind
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« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2010, 10:23:26 PM »

copied from DNA-Forums

As part of another project I was working on, I had aggregated R1b1b2 data from a number of Balkan projects at FTDNA. While the likelihood of people from different areas to do DeepClade tests can be expected to vary, I think it is likely that the ratio of R-U106 to R-P312 in the projects should be an unbiased estimator of the ratio in the underlying population.

Here are the ratios of U106:P312 I observed

Balkans: 30:70
Italy: 20:80
Spain 10:90
Germany: 35:65
Poland: 45:55
Switzerland: 45:55
Czech: 30:70
Benelux: 50:50
Sweden: 35:65

Remember that the point of origin is probably NOT place with the highest frequency. Based on this rough sketch, It looks like maybe U106 has a Balkan origin , similar to P312 (though the later is more likely than U106 to possibly have an Asian origin). To me it looks like P312 may have arrived after U106, possibly with, but unlikely after.

VV
For those who didn't see my comments on the other forum, I repeat them here. I find Sweden the most interesting statistic. It is hardly compatable with the notion favored by many of a U106 Germanic/ P312 Celtic divide. The others are very interesting as well.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2010, 11:43:22 PM »

....
Here are the ratios of U106:P312 I observed

Balkans: 30:70
Italy: 20:80
Spain 10:90
Germany: 35:65
Poland: 45:55
Switzerland: 45:55
Czech: 30:70
Benelux: 50:50
Sweden: 35:65
...
Vineviz hit this point elsewhere, but one way to look at the above is to look where U106 is highest.  It's hot spots are Poland, Switzerland and Benelux.

Those places are separated from one another by significant distances. They are like islands.
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vineviz
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« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2010, 06:51:27 AM »

Those places are separated from one another by significant distances. They are like islands.
Yes, though keep in mind that for this quick calculation I was limiting myself to projects at FTDNA, and that not all countries have decent sized projects.  Also, for some countries, like Germany, the data was aggregated to the country level and you might really prefer a more fine resolution.

But I do think the frequency distribution of U106 is less continuous than that of P312.

VV
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rms2
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« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2010, 07:06:30 PM »

This is interesting. I had suspected that P312 is actually a more populous clade overall than U106.

What happened with U106, it seems to me, is that it was introduced as a monolith, un-subdivided into subclades, and continued that way for awhile. That meant it was regarded as one thing, and that amplified its impact. It started popping up in North Germany, the Netherlands and in the old Anglo-Saxon areas of England, which led to its being hyped as the Germanic subclade of R1b1b2. Whether it was merited or not, that hype was very effective.

P312, on the other hand, was only discovered after a number of its subclades, like U152, SRY2627, M153, and M222. Therefore it was never regarded as just one simple thing the way U106 was. Thus the impact of P312 was diffused and much reduced from the very start.

I do think if you look at the distribution of P312 and U106 in Germany, you will find that P312 (mainly L21, P312*, and the U152 clades) stacks up in the West Center and Southwest, while U106 is more frequent in North Germany.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2010, 07:07:53 PM by rms2 » Logged

GoldenHind
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« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2010, 07:20:47 PM »

I just had a look through the various R1b subclade projects looking especially at Norway. Although I could only find 23 R1b from there with deep clade results, only 5 (about 22%) of them were U106, compared to 18 P312 (about 78%). L21 at 9 was nearly double any of the other subclades. I don't know if this will hold up, but I don't think it can be explained away by usual excuses (ie wandering Irish monks, Viking slaves, etc).
Combined with Vince's calculation about Sweden above, it suggests that P312 greatly outnumbers U106 in both Norway and Sweden.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2010, 07:22:41 PM by GoldenHind » Logged
NealtheRed
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« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2010, 08:30:22 PM »

I just had a look through the various R1b subclade projects looking especially at Norway. Although I could only find 23 R1b from there with deep clade results, only 5 (about 22%) of them were U106, compared to 18 P312 (about 78%). L21 at 9 was nearly double any of the other subclades. I don't know if this will hold up, but I don't think it can be explained away by usual excuses (ie wandering Irish monks, Viking slaves, etc).
Combined with Vince's calculation about Sweden above, it suggests that P312 greatly outnumbers U106 in both Norway and Sweden.

I notice a number of folks from Northern Germany or Scandinavia on Ysearch that have 12 at DYS492. They just have not done the deep clade yet.

Yesterday I found a sample who matches the L159 modal from Dithmarschen, Schleswig-Holstein! If we could only get more folks from that area to test!!
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Y-DNA: R-Z255 (L159.2+) - Downing (Irish Sea)


MTDNA: HV4a1 - Centrella (Avellino, Italy)


Ysearch: 4PSCK



GoldenHind
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« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2010, 08:49:26 PM »

Continuing along the same line, I just looked at FTDNA's Scandinavian Ydna project.
There were a total of 47 R1bs who have had deep clade testing.
29 (68%) of them are P312 (including subclades).
18 (38%) of them are U106 (including subclades).
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