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Author Topic: P312+ ages for the British Isles  (Read 1539 times)
MHammers
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« on: January 24, 2011, 12:39:13 AM »

Here are the ages for the British Isles using Ken's Generations5 calculator.  The estimates are based on 67 marker haplotypes and 30 yrs./generation.  Not every possible sample or combination of subclades was calculated.  For example, Wales only had 1 L176.  Ages are listed as years before present.

P312*
Ireland - 3930 n=31
Scotland - 3240 n=17
England - 3210 n=65
Wales - 2250 n=5  

L21 */**
England - 3510 n=94
Wales - 3270 n=20
Ireland - 3120 n=170
Scotland  - 2940 n=89
All Isles M222 - 1410 n=47
Ireland M222 - 1320 n=27
All Isles L159 - 1560 n=15
All Isles L193 - 1050 n=11
All Isles L144 - 1680 n=4
England L21 */** (and all Isles m222, L226, L159, L193, and L144) - 3390 n=188

U152
England all U152 - 3360 n=50
England U152*/** - 3300 n=13
England L2+ - 3090 n=26
Scotland all U152 - 3180 n=17
Scotland L2+ - 3090 n=10
Ireland all U152 - 3090 n=16
Ireland L2+ - 2970 n=5

L176
Scotland - 3000 n=11
England - 2700 n=30
Ireland - 2310 n=15
 
As you can see the age of P312+ is younger than the continent.  Only P312 in Ireland is close to the last part of the Beaker period. However, there are enough sigma generations to cover that.  Most of the dates are roughly in line with the Urnfield and Hallstatt periods on the continent.  The downstream subclades of L21 look like expansions in the Anglo-Saxon period.


« Last Edit: January 24, 2011, 12:46:12 AM by MHammers » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2011, 08:00:20 PM »

Here are the ages for the British Isles using Ken's Generations5 calculator.  The estimates are based on 67 marker haplotypes and 30 yrs./generation. ...
Thanks for doing these calculations, MHammers.

Can you determine what TMRCA's the tool gives for all geographies for?
P312 All
U152
L2
L21
M222
L226
L193
SRY2627
L176
M153
L165
P312*
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« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2011, 12:31:49 AM »

I'll see what I can do.  P312-all will require modification to the spreadsheet due to the enormous sample size that would be.  These are mostly intraclade estimates I've been doing which is little more than coalescent ages for each location.  The interclade approach is more informative, although with more sigma generations. 

Do you have any suggestions?  I was thinking the highest variance areas for P312 and U106 to provide the time of their common ancestor at L11.  Also, a comparison with L21 in the Isles vs. the Continent to see when they possibly crossed the channel.  The intraclade by itself which is somewhat younger can't really answer these questions.
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« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2011, 03:29:51 AM »

Some new intraclades
Source: Yahoo P312 project

All P312+ (all locations/all subclades included)
G=125/31, 3750 yrs. +/-930, n=2299

All L21+ (all locations/all subclades included)
G=125/31, 3750 yrs. +/-930, n=1486

There are now more L21's in the L21 Yahoo project, but I don't think the age would change significantly.

All U152+ (all locations/all subclades included)
G=124/31, 3720 yrs. +/-930, n=312

These are basically identical.  It seems as if the modalilty of R1b becomes a factor with these large samples size or P312 to L21 and U152 was a very rapid expansion.  Or both?  However, seperation is seen when broken down by geography, i.e. the continent is older than the Isles.  Interestingly enough, the age range with the sigmas 2790-4680 years ago, fits well for a Beaker culture to early Celtic population expansion.

All SRY2627 (all locations)
G=107/29, 3210 yrs. +/-870, n=141

All M222 (all locations)
G=54/20, 1620 yrs. +/-600, n=312

More to come...
« Last Edit: January 28, 2011, 10:11:56 AM by MHammers » Logged

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« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2011, 01:26:21 PM »

Thanks, MHammers.  With these sample sizes and the long haplotypes I feel good that we are getting good TMRCA's.  I always get confused on inter/intra but you are doing interclade type calculations, right? not intraclade.
http://dienekes.blogspot.com/2008/08/validation-of-ken-nordtvedts-interclade.html

If I remember right, Anatole K's estimate for L21 was right on top of your number here which is actually 1750 BC.. 900 years each way narrows things down quite a bit.  The Beakers, then the Altantic Bronze and Urnfield peoples, then its almost time for Hallstatt.

So, it looks like M222 really is about 400 AD.

Some new intraclades
Source: Yahoo P312 project

All P312+ (all locations/all subclades included)
G=125/31, 3750 yrs. +/-930, n=2299

All L21+ (all locations/all subclades included)
G=125/31, 3750 yrs. +/-930, n=1486

There are now more L21's in the L21 Yahoo project, but I don't think the age would change significantly.

All U152+ (all locations/all subclades included)
G=124/31, 3720 yrs. +/-930, n=312

These are basically identical.  It seems as if the modalilty of R1b becomes a factor with these large samples size or P312 to L21 and U152 was a very rapid expansion.  Or both?  However, seperation is seen when broken down by geography, i.e. the continent is older than the Isles.  Interestingly enough, the age range with the sigmas 2790-4680 years ago, fits well for a Beaker culture to early Celtic population expansion.

All L176 (all locations)
G=107/29, 3210 yrs. +/-870, n=141

All M222 (all locations)
G=54/20, 1620 yrs. +/-600, n=312

More to come...
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« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2011, 03:29:37 PM »

These are intraclade rather than interclade, though still useful for populations expansion times in a given location. An interclade would be somewhat older than the intraclade and is probably the better estimate overall. Interclade is more useful to bracket a common ancestor of two subclades, though it will have a larger sigma. 
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« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2011, 04:45:43 PM »

This looks like what I was taught at school but around 2k earlier could the earlier p312 be the 'Geals' or the first wave of IE who moved further, quicker or by a different rout. Maybe the migration was 'paused' by climatic condirions. This is great info thanks.
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« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2011, 12:23:31 AM »

Here are some interclade estimates with 67 marker haplotypes

L11 - using the areas of highest variance for P312 (France) and U106 (NE Europe)
The samples are undifferentiated,*, and** for P312.  U106 samples are only undifferentiated.

I get G=146/46 or 4380 +/-1380 yrs.  P312 n=23 and U106 n=31

L11 - using all continental P312 and U106
G=139/44 or 4170 +/-1320 yrs.  P312 n=139 and U106 n=173

P312 - using all continental L21 and U152.  Samples are undifferentiated,*, and**.
G=139/44 or 4170 +/-1320 yrs.  L21 n=94 and U152 n=79

P312 - using only Western Europe and Scandinavian L21 and U152.
G=141/45 or 4230 +/-1350 yrs.  L21 n=88 and U152 n=63

L21 England - using England L21 (highest Isles variance) and L21 Germany, Low Countries, and Scandinavia which have the shortest genetic distances between Isles members and continental members overall.  This was an attempt to approximate the latest arrival of England L21 to the Isles.

G=117/39 or 3510 +/-1170 yrs. England n=144 and Continent n=44  This is exactly the same as England L21 intraclade estimate.

L21 England - using England L21 with only Western Europe L21 (which is where the variance is highest) to approximate the earliest arrivals of L21 to the Isles.

G=132/40 or 3960 +/-1500 yrs. England n=144 and Continent L21 n=67

I don't think anything definitive can be said with these large sigmas, but there is a strong tendency for everything to cluster around the early Bronze age.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2011, 12:31:35 AM by MHammers » Logged

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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2011, 10:55:05 AM »

The rest of P312 for all locations (67 marker haplotypes and 30 yrs./generation)

L193 - G=32/16 960+/-480 yrs. n=24
L226 - G=38/17 1140+/-510 n=50

M153 - G=29/15 870+/-450 n=5

L2+ - G=128/31 3840+/-930 n=149
L20 - G=123/31 3690+/-930 n=33

L176+ - G=111/29 3370+/-870 n=155
L176* - G=179/38 5370/1140 n=5
L165 - G=94/27 2820+/- 810 n=9
L176 SRY2627 - see previous post
« Last Edit: January 28, 2011, 11:01:14 AM by MHammers » Logged

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« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2011, 08:33:29 PM »

The rest of P312 for all locations (67 marker haplotypes and 30 yrs./generation)

L193 - G=32/16 960+/-480 yrs. n=24
L226 - G=38/17 1140+/-510 n=50

M153 - G=29/15 870+/-450 n=5

L2+ - G=128/31 3840+/-930 n=149
L20 - G=123/31 3690+/-930 n=33

L176+ - G=111/29 3370+/-870 n=155
L176* - G=179/38 5370/1140 n=5
L165 - G=94/27 2820+/- 810 n=9
L176 SRY2627 - see previous post
Thanks, MHammers.

I'm always amazed how young M153 comes out when people think it is the "Basque marker" (which it does appear to be diagnostic for in a population) but somehow that is supposed to make it ancient.  I think the odds are 50-50 that it just a segment of the P312 North-South cluster.
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« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2011, 10:14:19 PM »

I think that's possible.  How old is the Basque language thought to be?  An ancient language, as in pre-IE, doesn't make sense with speakers who carry almost exclusively a very young subclade like M153.   Interestingly enough, the intraclade age for M153 with the sigmas is close to the time-frame of the Basque aDna (Azualde 2007) of 500-700 AD on Jean's Peopling of Europe site .
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« Reply #11 on: January 29, 2011, 12:54:41 PM »

How would the a ' leapfroging'  migration, effect the gene map today (what we see).
For a hypothetical example say L11 (and others as Mikewww (I think) proposed) left  (for covience) IE home land in SW Russia, moved west. East Europe was a bit full so kept going until S Germany i''ll call these ones A. Later the same things happer to group B but now L11 has a few mutations. S. Gremany is now full  A has expanded to france so they go to Britian /Ireland. This is grossly over simplefied but the idea is that There would be more varience in IE homeland increacing over time therefore would B  be more diverse than A and more to the point would we now see both older and newer clad arriving Britian/Ireland at a date that does not fit into nice model?
 
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« Reply #12 on: January 29, 2011, 02:01:59 PM »

How would the a ' leapfroging'  migration, effect the gene map today (what we see).
For a hypothetical example say L11 (and others as Mikewww (I think) proposed) left  (for covience) IE home land in SW Russia, moved west. East Europe was a bit full so kept going until S Germany i''ll call these ones A. Later the same things happer to group B but now L11 has a few mutations. S. Gremany is now full  A has expanded to france so they go to Britian /Ireland. This is grossly over simplefied but the idea is that There would be more varience in IE homeland increacing over time therefore would B  be more diverse than A and more to the point would we now see both older and newer clad arriving Britian/Ireland at a date that does not fit into nice model?
  

Older and newer R1b clades arriving in Britain could increase the variance to a degree, but it's still predominantly L11+ which is still going to cluster around a modal.  A leapfrog model for L11 in continetal Europe seems possible especially during time of Bronze age trade networks.  After the Bronze age and even until after  the fall of the Roman Empire  everyone was being pushed west by Germanic tribes, Huns. etc..  This may have increased the saturation of L11+ in the west even more into what we see today.  I think the more L51* we can look at and L23 as it begins to be broken up will tell us more about the path taken.  As it is now, SW Asia seems to be the origin of M269.  The big question marks are explaining how the R1b (primarily L23 and L51) descendents moved away from there and at what time.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2011, 02:07:43 PM by MHammers » Logged

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