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Author Topic: Where is S116* oldest?  (Read 4633 times)
alan trowel hands.
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« on: February 13, 2010, 09:54:35 PM »

In theory, most population movements have entered western Europe by either a Danubian or a Mediterranean route or much more rarely by some route from the east to the Baltic.  That being so, the original route (and of course the origin point) should have higher variance than the areas it only spread to in later secondary movements.  As S116* must by phylogenetic definition include some lineages that are older than L21, U152 etc, it would be interesting to know how the variance of this group varies on an area by area basis in much the same way as L21 has been looked at.  If it travelled along the Med then we would expect a decrease in variance along the Med. from east to west (say from Italy to Iberia) and for all Med. S116* to have significantly more variance than all central/north European S116*.  However, if S116* moved along a Danubian route then we would expect central European S116* to have significantly more variance than all of the Med.
and also for central European S116* variance to decrease from east to west.

I suspect that there is not a sufficient sample in eastern Europe to alloow much better than a comparison of S116* in

1. Italy (as a more easterly Med.country)

2. Iberia (as the most westerly Med. area)

3. A south German/Austrian/Hungary sample to represent central Europe

4. You could also have an isles and a Scandinavian group which surely should have less variance. Maybe worth including because if their variance is higher than the above there is clearly something wrong.

NB France is too complicated (unless very carefully divided) o include as it includes both Med. areas and areas that link to west-cenrral Europe and areas linked to the northern European plain.

I feel some effort needs to be made to tease more information out of the S116* group as it is an important phyogenetic link and the most geographcially widespread group that coveres a wider area than other groups like L21 and S28 which seem to be more geographically patterned.  S116 must have occurred in a place where (hopefully) S116 is still present as a minority in an area which also has the parental upstream forms.  That stands to reason.  One overlap country would seem to be Italy but there may be others elsewhere.

So, I wonder if our more statsitically gifted list members would consider looking into this?

all the best,

Alan

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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2010, 02:51:14 AM »

Alan writes: “One overlap country would seem to be Italy but there may be others elsewhere”.

I read this yesterday on “Genealogy-dna” and if I hadn’t been banned I would have thanked you. I do it here.
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Maliclavelli


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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2010, 06:58:50 AM »

Alan writes: “One overlap country would seem to be Italy but there may be others elsewhere”.

I read this yesterday on “Genealogy-dna” and if I hadn’t been banned I would have thanked you. I do it here.


No need to thank me.  From my understanding of archaeology and of some of the dating arguements for R1b1b2 I do not see Italy as a likely origin point of R1b1b2 as a whole but it does seem a potentially important stepping stone linking SE and west and it seems a possible candidate for the location of the S116 mutation.  However, I also think there is a possibility that S116 occurred further east in the Balkans.
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2010, 08:30:41 AM »

As I am been saying from many years and as I have said also on this forum, I think having demonstrated that Italy has all the upstream haplotypes of R-S116, like no other country has. I thought that R-116 was born out of Italy from Italian predecessors, and if you think also it was born in Italy... for this I thanked you, and it isn't said you aren't right.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2010, 09:10:30 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

Maliclavelli


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rms2
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« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2010, 01:22:24 PM »

Italy could be the birthplace of P312; I won't deny that. I would be happy to find that was the case. But it seems to me we have to consider how poorly tested the Balkans are. SE Europe is kind of a black hole of y-dna data, especially R1b data. Correct me if I am wrong.

We have one L21+ with ancestry in Croatia. He has no matches at 37 markers (he has only tested to 37 markers), and his only exact match at 25 markers is with someone with his surname.

There are only 44 men in FTDNA's Ancestral Origins database with ancestry in Croatia. Probably only a handful of those are R1b of some kind.

Makes me wonder.
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2010, 01:42:32 PM »

If you remember, my oldest theory of the Italian Refugium was at the time of the North Adriatic submerged: then Italy, Balkans, and then Croatia, Adriatic Islands were the same thing.
Recently, writing to Costa Tsirigakis, I noted that Italy has also E1b1b1b2, E1b1b1b3, J1e and mtDNA X2b1 so ancient and different from all others that they are in Italy from many thousands of years.
Also the Adriatic islands are very meaningful.
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Maliclavelli


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RickA
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« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2010, 02:29:08 PM »


We have one L21+ with ancestry in Croatia. He has no matches at 37 markers (he has only tested to 37 markers), and his only exact match at 25 markers is with someone with his surname.


Interesting, Rich.  Of course it is not possible to calculate variance on a sample of 1, but this person's lack of close matches raises a question.  Might L21+ have existed within the P312+ population for some extended period of time before a specific L21+ individual somehow gave rise to the large set of descendants we see today in western Europe.  Your European L21+ map seems to show a strong pattern mainly to the N and W. I wonder if some of the seeming "strays" may be, rather than wanderers from a western origin,  remnants from some older L21+ dating to before the explosive event.

It may be of interest to look at some of the other far-flung L21+. Even if variance can't be calculated, unusual STR profiles (or their absence, on the other hand) may be informative.

This should apply to to other haplogroups, too.  Wasn't there a P312 of some type in Khazakstan? So, how about the P312, U152, U106, etc samples found in the east.  Do they look different enough from the European samples (variance aside) to be possible earlier remnants, rather than back-migrations?
« Last Edit: February 14, 2010, 02:30:05 PM by RickA » Logged

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2010, 07:37:22 PM »

If there is any STR difference between S116* and L21* then the oldest L21 would surely be the L21 whose STRs are more like S116* than L21. 
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rms2
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« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2010, 11:33:14 PM »

I don't think anyone can tell the difference between a P312* haplotype and an L21 haplotype, except in the case of certain easily identified clusters, like the R1b1b2 "North-South Cluster", which thus far is 100% P312*.

That P312+ Rick mentioned in Kazakhstan turned out to be R-L2*, and he is a Kipchak tribesman.

It could be that a good supply of eastern test results might alter our thinking a great deal.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2010, 11:34:09 PM by rms2 » Logged

Mike Walsh
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« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2010, 12:04:06 AM »

I don't think anyone can tell the difference between a P312* haplotype and an L21 haplotype, except in the case of certain easily identified clusters.....
I agree.  P312*, L21 and U152 are basically WAMH up and down the line.  Essentially they must have been one "tribe" at some point, rapidly expanding.
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RickA
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« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2010, 12:14:21 AM »

You're all right of course.  They're probably all too similar for this to be a very useful approach.  Back to the drawing board.
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2010, 02:29:38 AM »

It does not look like there is a handy trail of clade defining SNPs following on from L21 U152 etc at the same sort of rate that the sequence P310-S116-L21/U152 happened.  The great hope of further SNPs just downstream of L21 by a few centuries that could track L21s movement has not materialised. Personally my gut feeling is they never will.  There seems to have been some sort of demographic change after that quick sequence of SNPs and further clade defining SNPs and clusters do not appear until long after, in the historic era 1000s of years later.   

Looks like the only way of inferring the origin point and direction of spread of a clade remains looking at intraclade variance of the clade on an area to area basis despite the issues with intraclade dating.  Problem with that is clearly sample.  Its really not good enough on the continent. 

I think R1b1b2 studies will not progress while the sample from the countries to the east of Germany and Italy is so poor.  That creates a major missing link in the R1b1b2 story. 
« Last Edit: February 15, 2010, 02:39:41 AM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2010, 07:41:44 AM »

Tim Jansen (cheers Tim) has done the calculations I suggested and posted them on rootsweb.  If taken at face value they would support a route from the east through central Europe to Germany with the southern areas of Europe only receiving their S116* somewhat later.  Very different from my own guess.  However, the 67 marker sample representing each area seems to be absolutely tiny and the results a bit confusing depending on the method used.  I wonder if it would be better to use a larger sample but with less markers. 

It seems to me from the continental L21 experience that a tiny sample misses most of the variance and in the case of France the variance seems to still be growing relative to other better sampled areas as the French sample improves.  You sometimes hear that a big sample can actually reduce variance but the game of catch-up that we see from places like France each time L21 variance is calculated suggests that there must be a minimum sample number before most variance is picked up and that number is far higher than the S116* 67 marker sample. 
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rms2
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« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2010, 10:47:17 AM »

We just picked up another new Polish R-P312* in the R-P312 and Subclades Project this morning: Pilewski, Ysearch 6PNVS.

What is interesting is that he has only one fairly close match: another Pole with a different surname.

If you look at the R-P312* Map, you will see that there are quite a few E. Euro R-P312* guys:

http://tinyurl.com/yh7usxz
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2010, 11:26:07 AM »

.... If you look at the R-P312* Map, you will see that there are quite a few E. Euro R-P312* guys:
http://tinyurl.com/yh7usxz

I looked at the maps of again (thanks for you hard work on this Rich.)
Perhaps this is too simplistic, but visually, a few things stood out:

R-P312* has a higher relative presence in East Europe than R-L21*.

R-P312*'s presence in Scandinavia seems to be related to the eastern or Baltic parts whereas R-L21*'s presence in Scandinavia is more scattered and clearly has an Atlantic facing component.

R-P312*'s presence in the British Isles, relative to R-L21's, is more on the eastern side, England, whereas R-L21's presence in Ireland is much heavier.  Noticably, I don't see R-P312* in Wales.

R-L21*'s presence in the Armorican peninsula is significant whereas R-P312*'s is not.

R-P312*'s presence in Iberia and in the south of Europe, in general, is clearly more significant than R-L21's.  Of course, there are other P312+ L21- U152-  clades in Iberia besides R-P312*'s so P312+ L21- U152- in Iberia is fairly significant.

When you throw R-U152 into the mix, my general impression is that R-U152 matches R-P312* to a greater degree than R-L21, with the exception that there is more R-U152 in Italy and less in Iberia than R-P312*.
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rms2
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« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2010, 11:47:32 AM »

One of the problems we have is that not everyone who is R-P312* joins the R-P312 and Subclades Project and not everyone who is R-L21* joins the R-L21 Plus Project.

The admin of the Bretagne (Brittany) DNA Project is almost certainly R-P312* (he belongs to the R1b1b2 North-South Cluster), but he hasn't done the Deep Clade-R test yet, and there are plenty of other L21- R1b1b2 in that project.

There are several Dutchmen who are L21+ who have not yet joined the R-L21 Plus Project, at least three Danes who are L21+ who also have not yet joined, and there is thus far one Greek L21+, and he hasn't joined yet either. I've had FTDNA contact all these folks and invite them to join, but that hasn't worked so far. Maybe there's a language issue; I don't know. I'm also pretty sure there are some extra French L21+ out there who have not joined the project, but I haven't counted to see if there is a discrepancy between what we have and what's in the database.

I strongly suspect there is a boatload of R-P312* out there who are outside the R-P312 and Subclades Project. I just don't know who they are and how to reach them. If more people had up to date Ysearch entries, things would be a lot easier.
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« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2010, 12:22:53 PM »

It's been a good day for the R-P312 and Subclades Project so far: yet another Polish R-P312* just joined a few minutes ago. The ancestral surname is Cenkier (also given as Cezer), Ysearch C9KYF, from very near the Slovak border, probably in the Carpathians, judging from the position on the map.

This one also has no close matches at 37 markers (he has just 37 markers).
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GoldenHind
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« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2010, 03:53:35 PM »

.... If you look at the R-P312* Map, you will see that there are quite a few E. Euro R-P312* guys:
http://tinyurl.com/yh7usxz

I looked at the maps of again (thanks for you hard work on this Rich.)
Perhaps this is too simplistic, but visually, a few things stood out:

R-P312* has a higher relative presence in East Europe than R-L21*.

R-P312*'s presence in Scandinavia seems to be related to the eastern or Baltic parts whereas R-L21*'s presence in Scandinavia is more scattered and clearly has an Atlantic facing component.

R-P312*'s presence in the British Isles, relative to R-L21's, is more on the eastern side, England, whereas R-L21's presence in Ireland is much heavier.  Noticably, I don't see R-P312* in Wales.

R-L21*'s presence in the Armorican peninsula is significant whereas R-P312*'s is not.

R-P312*'s presence in Iberia and in the south of Europe, in general, is clearly more significant than R-L21's.  Of course, there are other P312+ L21- U152-  clades in Iberia besides R-P312*'s so P312+ L21- U152- in Iberia is fairly significant.

When you throw R-U152 into the mix, my general impression is that R-U152 matches R-P312* to a greater degree than R-L21, with the exception that there is more R-U152 in Italy and less in Iberia than R-P312*.
I have noticed most of these as well and suspect some of them may be significant, such as the greater presence of P312* in eastern Europe, its heavier distribution of in northern and eastern England and its virtual absence in Wales.
However I point out two cautionary warnings:
The data we have is hardly scientifically reliable;
As I have said many times, I think it's a mistake to consider P312* as an homogenous entity, as it is very likely hiding different as yet undiscovered subclades which may well have vastly different histories and distributions. As an example, Nordtvedt's R1b-Norse cluster, which is found throughout Scandinavia, currently falls under P312* but may well be defined by the newly discovered SNP L238 (though no one seems to be interested in offering testing for it).
« Last Edit: February 15, 2010, 04:03:35 PM by GoldenHind » Logged
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« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2010, 04:33:13 PM »

... As I have said many times, I think it's a mistake to consider P312* as an homogenous entity ....
I agree with you, I should have clarified P312* as a paragroup.  I didn't intend to imply it was a single clade.

Nevertheless, unknown P312 clades are brothers to L21, U152, M153 and SRY2627.  Their positioning is relevant.  Both U152 and unknown P312 clades appear to have a more easterly prevalence visa vie L21 both on the Europeean Continent in general and in the British Isles.  U152 seems to appear more significantly in Italy and unknown P312 clades/M153/SRY2627 all appear more frequently in Iberia than U152 or L21.

.... AND perhaps most important, these guys are all brothers, not distant cousins.  By that I mean, they arose and spread quickly.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2010, 04:35:57 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #19 on: February 15, 2010, 06:48:16 PM »

And U152 has had quite a headstart in testing and data collection on P312 and especially on L21, and that headstart came in good economic times, as well. Commercial testing for L21 started just as the world economy went down the tubes.

I know I sound like a broken record, but all that makes a difference.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #20 on: February 15, 2010, 10:26:31 PM »

And U152 has had quite a headstart in testing and data collection on P312 and especially on L21, and that headstart came in good economic times, as well. Commercial testing for L21 started just as the world economy went down the tubes....
Where do you think that understates the L21 vs U152 differences? 
Are you saying that you think L21 will appear more in Eastern Europe than we now see to where it will be at least as prevalent as U152?
Are you saying that you think L21 will appear more in Italty than we now see?
or Iberia for that matter?
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« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2010, 07:01:22 AM »

And U152 has had quite a headstart in testing and data collection on P312 and especially on L21, and that headstart came in good economic times, as well. Commercial testing for L21 started just as the world economy went down the tubes....
Where do you think that understates the L21 vs U152 differences?  
Are you saying that you think L21 will appear more in Eastern Europe than we now see to where it will be at least as prevalent as U152?
Are you saying that you think L21 will appear more in Italty than we now see?
or Iberia for that matter?

I don't know, but I think it's possible.

I don't think L21 will be as prevalent in Italy as U152 is, but I think more will show up there. I'm not sure about Iberia.

My sense of things is that the purchase of Deep Clade-R tests has slowed since the economic downturn in the fall of 2008. That is affecting what we see.

I do think L21 has more of a northwestern center of gravity than U152, but it is possible that the slowdown in Deep Clade-R testing is masking the reality. Recall that there is at least one L21+ in Greece. Maybe he is the descendant of a transplanted Frenchman or Scot, but we don't know that because he hasn't joined the project, and he does identify Greece as his place of ancestral origin.

For about three years, during good economic times, when people had extra income to spend on dna testing, U152 (first as S28) and U106 (first as S21) were the only games in town. That gave those clades a tremendous testing and data collection advantage.

It seems to me that y-dna tests from Eastern Europe are especially sparse, coming in in drips or drops or tiny trickles here and there. That is why time is an important advantage. It takes time to accumulate a few E. Euro results, since the pool of test subjects is comparatively low and the proportion of R1b1b2 there is lower than it is in Western Europe. And during the time when U152 and U106 were all there was, how many East European R1b1b2 guys got the dreaded asterisk and just quit SNP testing? I don't know, but some of them might be L21+.

We haven't really used our project's General Fund to test East Europeans much because of the risk involved (less return on investment). But we do have some tantalizing E. Euro results, and there may be more where they came from and perhaps some even farther east.

« Last Edit: February 16, 2010, 07:12:32 AM by rms2 » Logged

alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2010, 07:37:03 AM »

I think you can divide Europe into countries where presence/absence/prevallence probably is telling us soemthing real (British Isles, Iberia, Italy, Germany, Holland (and much of western Europe) and other areas where it probably tells us little due to the tiny sample.  I think probably Poland is the only part of eastern Europe with any sort of useful sampling - the whole east-central and Balkans areas (crucial in terms of prehistory) are so undersampled I do not think any conclusion is safe.  It seems in that area R1b is older but more scarce and that means very very little is being picked up in the tiny sample.   This huge area lies between the main downstream of P310 block in western Europe and the main upstream of P310 area.  Its absolutely crucial to our understanding of R1b1b2's early history.  Somehow, someday a decent sample (and the area is huge) of the unresolved R1b1b2 there will have to be subject to deep clade testing.  If it is not then there will remain a large missing link area in the R1b1b2 story between SW Asia and western Europe. 
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #23 on: February 16, 2010, 07:42:46 AM »

... As I have said many times, I think it's a mistake to consider P312* as an homogenous entity ....
I agree with you, I should have clarified P312* as a paragroup.  I didn't intend to imply it was a single clade.

Nevertheless, unknown P312 clades are brothers to L21, U152, M153 and SRY2627.  Their positioning is relevant.  Both U152 and unknown P312 clades appear to have a more easterly prevalence visa vie L21 both on the Europeean Continent in general and in the British Isles.  U152 seems to appear more significantly in Italy and unknown P312 clades/M153/SRY2627 all appear more frequently in Iberia than U152 or L21.

.... AND perhaps most important, these guys are all brothers, not distant cousins.  By that I mean, they arose and spread quickly.

As far as I undertand though there is a significant difference with the Iberian S116 subclades in that, unlike L21 and U152 which came hot on the heels of S116, the MRCA ancestor for those Iberian clades is far later.  Am I remembering this correctly?  If so, that implies that most Iberian R1b1b2 was S116* for a long period. 
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #24 on: February 16, 2010, 07:51:40 AM »

One thing that has puzzled me for ages is that L21 has a distribution in the isles (and perhaps France and Germany too) that suggests it was there before S116*.  Just because S116* has no identified downstream SNPs does not mean that it is more ancient in every location.  I think it is clear that L21 spread in a trajectory that led especially from SW Germany/east-central France across France towards the NW and by doing so may have by-passed (or at least been much weaker in the way it filtered in) areas to the north and south.
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