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Author Topic: Very carefully built map of ht15 distribution in Europe  (Read 3895 times)
argiedude
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« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2009, 06:28:28 PM »

I made an updated version of the French map, for which I've pulled all the SNP-tested ht15 samples from the projects or ysearch that had a regional origin listed (instead of just France).



http://i88.photobucket.com/albums/k178/argiedude/FranceR1b1b2fromysearch2.gif

Remember that this carries the bias of the different dates at which these SNPs were introduced (tending to overrepresent SRY2627, U152, and U106, and underrepresent L21).

That huge pack of samples outside the map, with an arrow pointing to Poitou-Charentes, are all from... Poitou-Charentes. Notice one of them has the M222 I've noted before.

Already we can start to see patterns: L21 in northwest, SRY2627 in centralwest (very possibly southwest, too), U152 in southeast, U106 in northeast. It would seem the southwest is lacking in SRY2627, apparently so heavily present in centralwest France, but there are only 4 samples from southwest France, of which we would expect 1 or 2 to have been SRY2627, going by its presence in centralwest France, so this lack in southwest France could easily be random luck, and that's what I think it is. In the Adams study of Iberia, SRY2627 was found to constitute, as a percentage of the overall y-dna, 10% of Basques, 17% of Gasconny, 18% of Pyrenees, 23% of Barcelona, and 15% of Zaragoza, falling to 5% or less in all other regions (aka non-northeast Spain). A preliminary estimate of SRY2627 for Poitout-Charentes would be that SRY2627 is 22% of their y-dna, similar to northeast Spain, though on the high side. I obviously expect Aquitaine, in the middle of the two regions, to have a similar rate as its neighbors.

Also note the similarities with Basques in the southwest (Aquitaine) samples, which were all located in the southern part of Aquitaine (that's why I bunched them up at the bottom of the region). One has M153, the only one I found, a telltale R1b haplogroup from northeast Spain. Another one is P312*, but has a haplotype that I believe is part of a small cluster from northeast Spain, which includes, but is not limited to, M65 (390=23, 391=10, 385=11/11, 439=13, 389I=14).

For me personally, the most interesting thing is the implications for North Italy. The southeast samples seem to be heavily U152, even in the nearby areas of Bourgogne and Franche-Comte. I think southeast France has a very high rate of ht15, at least 65%, so this would mean U152 makes up about 50% of the y-dna of southeast France. In the North Italy Project, U152 makes up 50% of the ht15 deep-tested ht15 samples, and ht15 makes up 45% of North Italy's y-dna, so U152 is only around 20% of North Italy's y-dna. The real U152 hotspot isn't North Italy, it's southeast France.

One statistical curiosity: when looking at ysearch, I don't remember exactly, but I think 4 of 5 U152 samples were from southeast France, but when looking at the U152 Project, there were no U152 from southeast France, and most of the U152 were from northwest France! Gotta remember we're dealing with insignificant sample sizes; most estimates will be close to reality, but a good deal of them will not only be different, but very different.
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y-dna: R1b L21
mtdna: U5
rms2
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« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2009, 07:33:00 PM »

There are at least two R-L21* in the French Heritage DNA Project who did not test their SNPs with FTDNA and so do not show up with the green "R1b1b2a1b5" that flags R-L21 guys in FTDNA projects. They are Leprovost (Basse-Normandie), who tested with 23andMe, and Hamon (Pays-de-la-Loire), who tested with Ethnoancestry.

I also think the bias you mentioned due to the three-to-four-year lead those other subclades have on L21 is not insignificant. Another factor is that that lead was augmented by the fact that those were three or four years of good economic times. L21 was discovered just as the world economy went to hell in a handbasket.

Here's another thing: for some reason not all our L21+ guys create YSearch entries or, when they have them, update their haplogroup entries to R1b1b2a1b5 so that you can find them.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2009, 08:20:35 PM by rms2 » Logged

alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2009, 08:51:51 PM »

I have to agree with Rich.  The disadvantage continental L21 has in terms of numbers of people who have tested for it is huge.  Maybe someone has a stat for the total amount of L21 tests against the total amount of U152 or U106 etc tested (whatever the result) outside the isles.  That would be a really interesting stat and I would be surprised if L21 is not disadvantaged by several multiples.  The hit rate on France for L21 in near-blind testing strongly suggests it is grossly underestimated in public databases.  

I would also caution against seeing L21 as something of the NW quadrant of France.  There is also a big concentration in the Rhineland and nearby areas.  It seems very very likely that the gap between the Rhineland concentration and the NW French one is simply down to a lack of L21 testing in the area in between.  How many people have actually been tested for L21 in places like Alsace, Lorraine, Champagne, Centre, Burgunday etc?  Probably very few, maybe none in some of those areas.  A lot of the U152 and U106 was established by single test or deep clade testing before S116 and L21 were known and those who were negative for U152 and U106 simply remained on the huge undefined R1b1b2 pile.  I think the L21 concentrations of north-west quadrant of France and the Rhineland are probably linked by a band running from the Alsace, Lorraine, Champagne area although (perhaps) the north-east bordering on Belgium may remain low in L21 (The Belgic areas).

I would not rule out the posibility that L21 in France PEAKS in the north and west as it does in the isles.  It does give the impression in both these areas that they were later diluted in  more eastern areas by east-west movements, including (but not exclusively) the Germanic ones. So perhaps as in the isles, more of the pre-Roman lineages have survived in the NW  than elsewhere. This NW area is obvously far greater than Brittany and indeed very few of the NW French L21s are Bretons.  To be frank, anyone who still relates much of French L21 to British refugees is a fool.  However, I would be prepared to accept that France had a similar phenomenon as the isles in that areas in the NW escaped the brunt of the Germanic invasions more than others areas.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2009, 08:57:01 PM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2009, 09:10:27 PM »

I think Argiedue was right to have a go at this but how many non-isles tests that included L21 have been carried out compared to testing that included U152, U106 etc?  That would give a basis for an adjustment multiplication of the L21 totals in the database.  I think this sort of adjustment is needed to make all the totals comparible.  

Perhaps the starting point is how many deep clade tests were carried out when only U106 was known, how many were carried out when U105 and U152 were known and how many have been carried out since L21 has been added to the deep clade.  That would be a good basis for an adjustment figure,
« Last Edit: October 30, 2009, 09:13:42 PM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
argiedude
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« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2009, 06:02:47 PM »

Yeah, I think I got carried away, what I called a "tendency" for L21 to be underrepresented is a lot bigger than that. Though this map let's us start to see things, such as where U152 and U106 are more likely to be concentrated, when I started calculating percentages I went overboard. For example, in the case of Poitou-Charentes, I calculated that SRY2627 was 20% of the y-dna because it's 2/5 of deep-tested R1b, but it could well be that L21 is half of R1b in Poitou-Charentes, and SRY2627 only 1/5 of R1b. This would also make sense, as the frequency of SRY2627 would be gradually decreasing from its center in the Pyrenees, where it's already 20%. Aquitaine's R1b would have even less L21, maybe just a quarter of all samples, and Iberia only 1/10 of its R1b. That would more or less fit the results we're seeing. And southeast France, for which I said was mostly U152, the real picture could be more like 1/2 U152, 1/4 L21, and 1/4 other stuff.
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y-dna: R1b L21
mtdna: U5
alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2009, 10:02:05 PM »

Yeah, I think I got carried away, what I called a "tendency" for L21 to be underrepresented is a lot bigger than that. Though this map let's us start to see things, such as where U152 and U106 are more likely to be concentrated, when I started calculating percentages I went overboard. For example, in the case of Poitou-Charentes, I calculated that SRY2627 was 20% of the y-dna because it's 2/5 of deep-tested R1b, but it could well be that L21 is half of R1b in Poitou-Charentes, and SRY2627 only 1/5 of R1b. This would also make sense, as the frequency of SRY2627 would be gradually decreasing from its center in the Pyrenees, where it's already 20%. Aquitaine's R1b would have even less L21, maybe just a quarter of all samples, and Iberia only 1/10 of its R1b. That would more or less fit the results we're seeing. And southeast France, for which I said was mostly U152, the real picture could be more like 1/2 U152, 1/4 L21, and 1/4 other stuff.

I wonder if FTDNA could give figures for deep clade testing numbers before and after L21 was added.  That really would be a useful basis for adjustment. 

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GoldenHind
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« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2009, 10:55:48 PM »

I made an updated version of the French map, for which I've pulled all the SNP-tested ht15 samples from the projects or ysearch that had a regional origin listed (instead of just France).




Perhaps I am missing something, but your map shows no P312* in the Pas-de-Calais, Picardy and Lorraine, but the P312* map has an example in each of those departments.
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argiedude
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« Reply #32 on: November 04, 2009, 08:27:09 PM »

Goldenhind, I guess I just didn't pick them up. It calls my attention, though, I thought I looked at every R1b project.
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y-dna: R1b L21
mtdna: U5
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