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Author Topic: Very carefully built map of ht15 distribution in Europe  (Read 3665 times)
argiedude
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« on: October 25, 2009, 06:32:25 PM »



http://i88.photobucket.com/albums/k178/argiedude/R1b1b2393not12-result.gif

I've been working on this for the last few days. The lines may seem like they were quickly drawn but nothing further from the truth. They were painstakingly laid down. I had excellent data for almost everywhere except... France. I managed to extract as much info as possible from the ysearch samples, and because of that I reached the conclusion that, for example, southeast France has 60%+ ht15, and that the very high rates found in the Pyrenees probably fall sharply as soon as one enters southwest France.

There are tons of very interesting observations, I don't know where to start. I'll just leave this tidbit: west Norway has 30% ht15, east Norway has 20%. This was verified using 800 and 600 samples, respectively.

Keep in mind this is a map of ht15, not M269 or R1b1b2, so it doesn't include ht35 samples, which have a very different distribution than ht15. To tell them apart, I simply excluded all R1b1b2 samples that had 393=12, and afterwards made a slight adjustment to the remaining samples to account for the small amount of ht15 samples that would have the off-modal value 393=12 (simply adding 3% to all the results, since 393=12 makes up about 3% of L21, U152, or U106). Also keep in mind that I calculated all the areas in the map, not just Europe; because they all have ht15 at less than 5%, the map gives the impression that I didn't consider those regions.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2009, 08:29:00 PM by argiedude » Logged

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2009, 06:51:09 PM »



I've been working on this for the last few days. The lines may seem like they were quickly drawn but nothing further from the truth. They were painstakingly laid down. I had excellent data for almost everywhere except... France. I managed to extract as much info as possible from the ysearch samples, and because of that I reached the conclusion that, for example, southeast France has 60%+ ht15, and that the very high rates found in the Pyrenees probably fall sharply as soon as one enters southwest France.

There are tons of very interesting observations, I don't know where to start. I'll just leave this tidbit: west Norway has 30% ht15, east Norway has 20%. This was verified using 800 and 600 samples, respectively.

Keep in mind this is a map of ht15, not M269 or R1b1b2, so it doesn't include ht35 samples, which have a very different distribution than ht15. To tell them apart, I simply excluded all R1b1b2 samples that had 393=12, and afterwards made a slight adjustment to the remaining samples to account for the small amount of ht15 samples that would have the off-modal value 393=12 (simply adding 3% to all the results, since 393=12 makes up about 3% of L21, U152, or U106). Also keep in mind that I calculated all the areas in the map, not just Europe; because they all have ht15 at less than 5%, the map gives the impression that I didn't consider those regions.


Your map does not expand when clicked.  Same problem as when you posted those pie charts of R1b clades.
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argiedude
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2009, 08:07:14 PM »

The board automatically changes my tags from this:

[img]


to this:


[img width=85 height=60]

Obviously, I don't have a clue what's going on.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2009, 08:07:33 PM by argiedude » Logged

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2009, 08:36:43 PM »

The board automatically changes my tags from this:

[img]


to this:


[img width=85 height=60]

Obviously, I don't have a clue what's going on.

Can anyone fix this problem.  Its a shame when you consider the work thats gone into Argiedudes maps and charts.  Last time I had to visit another forum they had been posted on to view the charts.
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argiedude
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2009, 09:36:36 PM »

Alan, you can always try some stuff on the image itself, depending on your browser, like right-clicking and selecting some option, maybe your browser allows "view image" or something, in which case it will probably open in a new window without the forced width specifications.
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2009, 11:01:26 PM »

argiedudes maps have to be posted on the web somewhere first.

Try posting them to Shutterfly first, then provide a link.

http://www.shutterfly.com/
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argiedude
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2009, 11:37:59 PM »

Shutterfly seems to be a photo-sharing website. That's what I'm using, already > the image is already linked to a website.
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2009, 11:59:09 PM »

OK, can you post the url to the map instead of the actual map.

That might work!

That's my only other suggestion.

Hope that helps!
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2009, 06:11:38 AM »

Argiedude, I did what I did last time and looked at it on another forum.  Its a nice map and does show some interesting little quirks like the dip in frequency in west-central France that are puzzling.  There remains the general feeling for me that in western Europe we are seeing a dilution from the east caused by historic period movements although that is only one way of interpreting it I suppose. 

Also, your map picks out even more strongly the feeling that the real peaks correspond to well known population isolates, reflected by the fact these are exactly the places where otherwise extinct languages hung on last.  As these groups include Celtic speakers and unrelated Basque speakers, it is clear that the significant factor in these peaks is not Celtic or Basque but simply the isolation (we know from L21 that the areas are not directly connected with each other).

The most ineresting thing is that your map shows a tail leading through Hungary and Romania to the Black Sea, which could support those who fancy a steppes origin.  This is rather different from previous maps of R1b that show a narrow tail leading back to Turkey.  Why is this?  That is obviously a pretty important thing.     
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2009, 10:34:28 AM »

...... The most ineresting thing is that your map shows a tail leading through Hungary and Romania to the Black Sea, which could support those who fancy a steppes origin.  This is rather different from previous maps of R1b that show a narrow tail leading back to Turkey.  Why is this?  That is obviously a pretty important thing.     
Argiedude, great map!  Thank you.

Alan, this is the same point I am trying to understand.  I think the equivalent "ht35" map helps us get the story.   The Dinaric and Balkan Mountain ranges look like they would pose as an obstacle to migration out of the Balkan Peninsula into Central and Western Europe.     How does one get to the Hungarian Plains from the peninsula?  The Morava River up through Belgrade seems to be a decent path but I don't see much else.

Likewise, how does one get from Bulgaria and the Black Sea up the Danube River to the Hungarian plains.  Of course, the Danube Valley provides the route but there is a tough passage, the "Iron Gate" of the Danube.

We should also consider our U106(S21) brothers.  Michael M of the R-U106 project feels that the ancestral forms of haplotypes are found east of Germany, i.e. modern Poland.  My understanding is that is quite far from the Balkans, being not only north of the Hungarian Plains, but north of the Carpathian Mountains.  If Michael M is correct, consider that U106 is in the path of David Anthony's Proto-Germanic speaking peoples from the Steppes.   As an alternative U106 could have come around the western edge of the Capathians and on north into Poland from the Hungarian Plains.

Hopefully, whatever DNA story we find is a true pattern of genetic populations and not just a pattern of where DNA testing is heavy versus light (or unfortunately light versus not at all.)
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2009, 11:30:14 AM »

Here is the "pre-ht15" data from Vince V's ht35 project.  Thanks, Vince.

Hopefully, I'm getting this right, so please correct me quickly if you see an error.   Here is my understanding of who the people are SNP-wise, that we call "ht35".  

They are R-M269+ P310- folks so they are R1b1b2 but they do not test derived/positive for either P312(S116) or U106(S21), which both fall underneath P310+.

Vince V has categorized these pre-P310 folks into four groups:

A1 M269+ L23-
A2 L23+ L51-
A3 L51+ L11-
A4 L11+ P310-

You can think of A2 as being derived from A1, and A3 from A2, etc.

Here is a table of the people in the ht35 chart.
http://www.dna-forums.org/index.php?/topic/5895-ht35-project-update/page__st__220

It doesn't exactly clear things up for me since I see both Italy and the Ukraine in the A1 group.   That gives a pretty broad area for P310+ then P312+ and U106+ to be "born"

Which is easier or more likely in prehistoric times?  To go from the Ukraine to Italy or the other way around?   Perhaps a better answer is to come from somewhere else and spread both north (or west) to the Ukraine and west or (or south and west) to Italy?

umm...  Well, either way, that doesn't fix us in to a narrower geography for P312(SS16)'s origin, I guess other than where his "father" and "grandfathers" seem to hang out, which is east of Western Europe.    We do see grandpa A4 in Poland, Italy and Armenia.  I think the R-U152(S28) (downstream P312+) maps have a guy out in what I'd call Central Asia.

R-U152(S28) Map (don't forget to look to the east of the Caspian Sea)
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=116137979488210255883.00044e170d065ca91df35&z=4

Keep in mind that P312[S116, U152(S28)] and L21 expanded almost simultaneously.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2009, 03:15:28 PM by Mike » Logged

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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2009, 01:26:33 PM »

Reliance on these R-U152 maps is foolhardy.
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2009, 01:31:30 PM »

Mike writes: “It doesn't exactly clear things up for me since I see both Italy and the Ukraine in the A1 group”.

Mike, Ukrainian R1b1b2/L23- is exclusively Jews. As I think having demonstrated, adding to a thread of the same Argiedude on “Dienekes blog”,  we must answer to the question where those Jews come from. Who knows me knows that my idea is that they come above all from Italy, being Ashkenazim migrated from Italy to the Rhine Valley and then peopled East Europe. Of course Jews are thinking that they come from Middle East, but some last papers have demonstrated that R-L23- isn’t now present in Middle East and we can think that it wasn’t also in the ancient times. Vizachero says that the fact that it isn’t now doesn’t demonstrate that it wasn’t in the past. By some contributions I gave to the Argiedude’s thread on “Dienekes blog” I think having demonstrated that Italy has the high percentage of this haplogroup and only Italy has so far the haplogroup R-L23+/L150- that is the ancestor of all the subclades we find now above all in Europe. Of course each of us will draw his conclusions.
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2009, 03:32:19 PM »

Reliance on these R-U152 maps is foolhardy.
Is there another map of R-U152 distribution somewhere?
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2009, 04:12:52 PM »

The only unbiased R-U152 map you will find I’m afraid was done by argiedude on the thread Relative proportions of R1b1b2 groups in Y-Search at http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=8712.0.

R-U152 has been the subject of intense drama for quite awhile now. Sorry, but that is simply the way things have played out over the last several years.   
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argiedude
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2009, 09:08:27 PM »

I've edited the first post in this thread to include a direct link to the image.


Maliclavelli, thanks for that info about the Italian L23+ L150-. He's actually a member of our North Italy Project. That's very interesting.

The Greek results are perhaps the most curious. If you go to the Greece DNA Project, you'll see that 4 R1b samples with 393=13 have been deep tested and 2 are P312* and 2 are U152. So it seems that 393=13 is indicative of ht15 in Greece, as expected. There's only one catch. There's apparently an Albanian clade of R1b1b2 which is characterized by 393=13 and 385=11/11. It seems this clade is in fact ht35, despite having 393=13. I took this into account when making the map, eliminating the samples with 393=13 and 385=11/11 from Albania, Greece, and Macedonia. None of the 4 deep tested samples in the Greece Project had 385=11/11.

In 3 different studies, Crete had about 15% R1b1b2. None of these had haplotype info. But I found 4 R1b1b2 Cretan samples in ysearch and yhrd, and all 4 had 393=13, so I'm simply presuming they're ht15. None had 385=11/11.
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argiedude
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2009, 08:39:14 PM »



http://i88.photobucket.com/albums/k178/argiedude/R1b1b2393only12ht35-result.gif

Map of ht35.

The numbers with a slash in southeast Europe show first the overall ht35 percentage, and then the percentage of ht35 excluding samples of the Albanian ht35 cluster (393=13, 385=11/11). I took into account the influence of ht15 with off modal 393=12 or of ht35 with off modal 393=13.
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2009, 09:21:18 PM »

Thank you.

What are the total number of samples behind Armenia's high 25% number?
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argiedude
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2009, 10:45:48 PM »

Just 100. I'll bet their percentage of ht35 is around 15% like everybody else in that region.
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2009, 05:13:20 AM »

Argiedude, your map would seem to  indicate the Caucasus as the origin of R-ht 35, i.e. probably  R-L23+. But I'm inviting you to consider that, as I said many times in the past, there has been a diffusion from Italy of some YDNA with mtDNA U5b3 after the Youger Dryas and clearly the Caucasus is a refugee for genetic drift of every ancient haplogroup. I think that what is decisive is a map of R-L23- (you did that and I gave some contribution) and above all R-L23+/L150- (the Italian Romitti).
If the theory of an origin from the Caucasus were true, we should find many R-L23+/L150- there. I also invited Vizachero to show this cluster but I  had no answer so far, though he is testing for this SNP all the ht 35 in the "ht 35 project" of FTDNA.
P.S. But how have you calculated the percentage? Among the hg. R or among the sum of YDNA? If the latter is true, Turkey will have only ht 35, and this isn't credible, being there many other subclades of hg. R (Galatians, Romans something must have left).
Anyway if this is true, certainly Turkey and the Caucasus aren't the origin of the European subclades, from R-U106 and R S116.
You know that Middle East dosn't have R-L23- which Italy has at the highest percentage.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2009, 06:33:11 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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argiedude
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2009, 08:06:16 PM »

The French samples I used to make the ht15 map, from ysearch:



http://i88.photobucket.com/albums/k178/argiedude/FranceR1b1b2fromysearch.gif

There weren't any cases of non-European y-dna, but there was an M222. This would suggest there could be something like 20 or 30 samples that are really of British origin amongst the purported ysearch entries, which I believe are mainly of Canadians of French descent. This wouldn't be a terrible problem, as it would only represent about 5% of the entries, but... the single M222 is from Poitou-Charentes...

Poitou-Charentes is clearly the prime exit point from where the French went to Quebec. I saw that many samples from this region had origins as far back as the 1600's. I think it's possible that while most of the regions depicted really do reflect French from that region, in the case of Poitou-Charantes, and perhaps also Pays-de-la-Loire, Brittany, and maybe also Normandy and Aquitaine, a very important part of the samples are either British, or they're French but from anywhere in the country (for example, they know the port of exit their ancestors took to reach Quebec, but not where they were really from in France). So the coastal region has lots of problems. And this is the place that, oddly, seemed to have a lower rate of R1b than the rest. But then again, if these samples were to a large extent of British origin then their level of R1b should be higher, not lower than the rest of France.

I'd like to see if I can spot other telltale British clusters amongst these purported French samples. Can anyone tell me of some fairly common R1b haplotypes ONLY found in Britain? In particular, I'm thinking about a Scottish L21 cluster that's very common. It's L21, I think.

Maliclavelli, I'll continue this interesting stuff about L23 in that thread you made about it. And yes, this is really interesting, and thanks for noting all this stuff. I had no idea about the L23+ L150- sample, and it's in my North Italy Project! About ht35: the ht35 map shows the percentages over all the y-dna.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2009, 08:07:35 PM by argiedude » Logged

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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2009, 10:41:46 PM »

Interesting map argiedude.  Interesting that your map shows a fall in R1b1b2 along the lines of the advances of Linearbandkeramik in the Paris Basin and along the Cardial culures line of advance in Atlantic France south of the Loire.  Sort of a dent for people like me who fancy the early Neolithic advance as being responsible for R1b1b2's spread!  Superficially looks like R1b1b2 has been diluted along the main lines of Neolithic advance into France but that would take us back into having to think R1b1b2 was pre-Neolithic.  Maybe there is an explanation though.  What are the non-R1b1b2 y-DNA clades in these two areas of drop.  Is it down to E clades? It is also worth noting too that the higher R1b1b2 areas are also similar to the concentrations of beakers in France.
  

BTW, I would be careful about looking for 'British' clusters in France.  Given that the French sample is so much lower than the isles, it is entirely possible that a small British cluster could be as common in France without French examples even appearing on the databases and hence being though of as 'British'.    
« Last Edit: October 29, 2009, 11:07:55 PM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
argiedude
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2009, 11:00:04 PM »

alan, if we use a cluster that is known in Ireland or Scotland but very rare in England, then I think we can reasonably presume it's going to be extremely rare in France.

I'll get back to you about the non-R1b samples, tomorrow.
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2009, 11:15:25 PM »

alan, if we use a cluster that is known in Ireland or Scotland but very rare in England, then I think we can reasonably presume it's going to be extremely rare in France.

Not sure that is a safe assumption to be honest.  Probably the safest clusters to look for are the ones that look youngest.  There is not evidence of settlement between France and Ireland or Scotland in the 1000 year long period between the Celtic period c. 100AD and the Norman settlers c. 1100AD or later.  So, anything isles cluster whose origins fall in between those dates is probably a local isles one.
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2009, 07:57:24 AM »

The French samples I used to make the ht15 map, from ysearch:



http://i88.photobucket.com/albums/k178/argiedude/FranceR1b1b2fromysearch.gif

There weren't any cases of non-European y-dna, but there was an M222. This would suggest there could be something like 20 or 30 samples that are really of British origin amongst the purported ysearch entries, which I believe are mainly of Canadians of French descent. This wouldn't be a terrible problem, as it would only represent about 5% of the entries, but... the single M222 is from Poitou-Charentes...

I'm sorry, but you are divining 20-30 samples of British origin because of the presence of a single M222? Statements like that, without any apparent support, are reckless because they will be seized upon by those who want to advance the notion that L21 originated in the British Isles. And that view damages research prospects because it discourages testing by continental Europeans.

Have you looked for French haplotypes in the British Isles?

If you found a single C or O haplotype in western France, would that signal the presence there of a colony of Mongols?

I'm sorry, but I have been fighting an uphill battle against the dna forums "out-of-the-Isles" crowd since the very first L21 results came in.

Poitou-Charentes is clearly the prime exit point from where the French went to Quebec. I saw that many samples from this region had origins as far back as the 1600's. I think it's possible that while most of the regions depicted really do reflect French from that region, in the case of Poitou-Charantes, and perhaps also Pays-de-la-Loire, Brittany, and maybe also Normandy and Aquitaine, a very important part of the samples are either British, or they're French but from anywhere in the country (for example, they know the port of exit their ancestors took to reach Quebec, but not where they were really from in France). So the coastal region has lots of problems. And this is the place that, oddly, seemed to have a lower rate of R1b than the rest. But then again, if these samples were to a large extent of British origin then their level of R1b should be higher, not lower than the rest of France.

I'd like to see if I can spot other telltale British clusters amongst these purported French samples. Can anyone tell me of some fairly common R1b haplotypes ONLY found in Britain? In particular, I'm thinking about a Scottish L21 cluster that's very common. It's L21, I think . . .

Feel free to look, but I have not seen anything particularly British about the French R-L21*s we have in our project: no "Scots Modal" guys, etc.

Grenier has a couple of Englishmen at 4 or 5 away at 37 markers, but that's not unusual (or really all that close), and plenty of French have gone to Britain throughout history.


« Last Edit: October 30, 2009, 08:06:47 AM by rms2 » Logged

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