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rms2
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« on: January 11, 2009, 04:10:19 PM »

Do you have a copy of The Penguin Atlas of Ancient History, by Colin McEvedy? I have the 1988 edition, which I just pulled off the shelf again yesterday and began glancing at. There's a new edition out:
 
http://tinyurl.com/7xa8ey
 
I don't know what changes are in the new edition, though I would like to find out. Anyway, in the '88 edition, McEvedy has Indo-Europeans in Britain (but only in the East) by 2750 BC. His subsequent map for circa 1850 BC shows a major movement of "Celto-Ligurians" from the Continent into Britain. By his 1600 BC map, they are spread throughout Britain.
 
In the text that accompanies the 1850 BC map, McEvedy says, "The only firm datum seems to be that the British beaker folk came from the Rhine-Elbe region and not from Brittany, which favors the westward interpretation. The main reason for taking an exclusively westward view, however, is that the bell-beaker distribution map resembles the Celto-Ligurian world of a millenium later too exactly for coincidence, and, if the equation of beaker-folk with Celto-Ligurians is accepted, the expansion must have been westward, from the Indo-European zone" (p. 28).
 
By "westward" he means as opposed to the idea that the beaker-folk came from the west (i.e., the Atlantic facade) and moved northeast.

Why he makes no attempt to separate Celts from Ligurians I do not know, and it's too late to ask, because McEvedy passed away in 2005.
 
Prior to all of that, however, McEvedy has the western Indo-Europeans emerging from the "Danubian" complex. It seems to me - and I realize I could be wrong - the P312 and U106 "Super Groups" (pardon me for giving them such a grandiose title) probably emerged from the Danubian complex speaking a pretty much undifferentiated centum PIE or perhaps dialects that had already started to differentiate into Proto-Italo-Celtic on the one hand and Proto-Germanic on the other. U106 and its subsequent offshoots moved mostly north and east. Parts of P312 moved north and west. U152 probably remained in the heartland longer than the others and began to spread slightly later, perhaps with a stimulating shot of Cimmerian input (or maybe the original U152s were Cimmerians?).
 
A lot depends on the ability to firmly date P312, U106 and their subclades (within a reasonable confidence interval).
 
Anyway, the emergence of the beaker-folk from the "Danubian" complex matches almost exactly the conclusions of David Anthony in his The Horse, the Wheel, and Language, in which he has Proto-Italo-Celtic beaker-folk moving up the Danube Valley from the Hungarian Plain and Transylvania after about 2800 BC (pp. 361-367, especially p. 367). U106 would most likely have arisen among one of the Corded Ware/Battle Axe groups (pp. 367-368).
 
I'm not saying there was no fraying around the edges, no mixing, no Italo-Celt U106s or Germanic P312s, etc. Obviously all that mixing and fraying did occur, but it is necessary sometimes to paint with a broad brush in order to get the basic idea across without writing a tome the length of War and Peace. What I was talking about above were the general trends, the big currents rather than the rivulets.
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GoldenHind
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« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2009, 07:34:50 PM »

As you know, I do think the Beaker folk and Corded Ware cultures probably represent the introduction of R1b into Europe, and that they spoke an IE centum language at the time of their arrival. Ken N. is saying the MRCA of both P312 and U106 is about 4000 years ago, and that P312 and its major subclades developed almost immediately after that, and U106 a little later, 3500 ybp. However he warns there is a large confidence level. Personally I don't think we will know the answer to the history of P312 and U106 until we know WHERE they originated. If they arose in Asia, which I think is at least possible, their history could be very different than if they didn't develope until sometime after they arrived in Europe. The U152 in Kazakhstan makes an Asian origin possible. I would love to see some testing in that area for P312, U106 and subclades.
I believe you are aware that there is archaeological evidence for both the Beakers and Corded Ware in Denmark, which could explain why P312 and U106 appear to be equally divided there. At least that is one possible explanation.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2009, 12:56:58 AM »

I have read David Anthony's "The Horse The Wheel and Language..." and, Rich, your Proto-IndoEuropean/R1b-Centum/R1a-Satem Language split hypothesis makes general sense to me.  As added information for those who haven't read it, Anthony pinpoints, through a process of elimination, that the origination (or at least the first major expansion) of the PIE Languages are the (Pontic) Steppes between the Carpathian and Ural Mountains just north of the Black and Caspian Seas.  The timeframe PIE was spoken there was probably circa 4000 to 2500 BC.

The Greeks called the PIE homeland Western Scythia, but the timeframe PIE originated there is before the Greeks' Golden Age, hence our ancestors may have been long gone from Scythia by the time the Greeks called it that.

The theory is that PIE speakers from the Pontic Steppes swept westward in a couple of waves with their horses, cattle, weapons and maybe some lactase persisentence and particular disease resistances.  They were supposed to be first true horse riders (and mouth bits, etc.) and hence probably had both larger horse and cattle herds.

Anthony hypothesizes that there was a "true folk migration" (gene flow!) of Yamanaya horizon peoples in significant numbers into the lower Danube valley (Romania) and the Carpathian Basin (Hungary) and another branch south into Bulgaria. There was a "massive sustained flow of outsiders into a previously settled land". There was probably some "integration with the Corsofeni culture."

"Eastern Hungary" was occupied by "larger population of immigrants" from the Yamnaya culture. "This regional group could have spawned both pre-Italic and pre-Celtc. Bell beaker sites of the Csepel type around Budapest, west of the Yamnaya settlement region are dated about 2800-2600 BC. They could have been a bridge between Yamnaya on their east and Austria/Southern Germany to their west, through which Yamnaya dialects spreads from Hungary into Austria and Bavaria, where they later developed into Proto-Celtic. Pre-Italic could have developed among the dialects that remained in Hungary, ultimately spreading into Italy through the Urnfield and Villanovan cultures."

Anthony's group that expanded into Southern Germany/Austria sounds like Bell Beaker pre-Celts or maybe even proto-Celts to me! 

The quotes above are from the book. To be clear, Anthony does not in specify anything about the Y or mt DNA. He proclaims this to be primarily a cultural/language movement.

However, it's a nice fit for the move of R1b sub-clades westward, including the Italo-Celt affinity.  P312's MCRA is about 2000 BC, give or take 1000 years.  It could have been along for the ride up the Danube basin all the way into Western Europe, with remnants probably still behind in SE Europe as well as a branch that found a path south of the Alps into Italy.

What do you think?

P.S. - It helps me to look at this physical relief map of Europe. If you click on the countries of Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Austria and Germany you can see where the Carpathian Mountains caused a division in the westward flow of peoples.  It is easy to see how important the Danube River is as it stretches to its upper reaches in Southern Germany and Switzerland.   Back in Hungary, the Italic folks must have squeezed through passes in Slovenia to get on the south side of the Alps in Italy (at least if you follow the Anthony theory.)
http://www.freeworldmaps.net/europe/index.html
« Last Edit: January 13, 2009, 01:06:59 AM by mww » Logged

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GoldenHind
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« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2009, 05:11:35 PM »

For those who are self-imposed exiles from the other forum, I repeat this post here.
I am breaking my dictum and making a prediction based on only partial evidence.
I predict P312 and subclades (including L21 and U152) will turn out to be slightly more numerous in Germany than U106 and its subclades.
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Oisin
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« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2009, 12:38:00 PM »

As you know, I do think the Beaker folk and Corded Ware cultures probably represent the introduction of R1b into Europe, and that they spoke an IE centum language at the time of their arrival. Ken N. is saying the MRCA of both P312 and U106 is about 4000 years ago, and that P312 and its major subclades developed almost immediately after that, and U106 a little later, 3500 ybp. However he warns there is a large confidence level. Personally I don't think we will know the answer to the history of P312 and U106 until we know WHERE they originated. If they arose in Asia, which I think is at least possible, their history could be very different than if they didn't develope until sometime after they arrived in Europe. The U152 in Kazakhstan makes an Asian origin possible. I would love to see some testing in that area for P312, U106 and subclades.
I believe you are aware that there is archaeological evidence for both the Beakers and Corded Ware in Denmark, which could explain why P312 and U106 appear to be equally divided there. At least that is one possible explanation.

I think that P312 and U106 came out of the Basque refuge.Thats why both SNPs are spread all over Europe.R1b has been in Europe for the last 25,000 years according to the Scientists, or are there two R1bs.
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rms2
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« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2009, 06:54:20 PM »

I think that P312 and U106 came out of the Basque refuge.Thats why both SNPs are spread all over Europe.R1b has been in Europe for the last 25,000 years according to the Scientists, or are there two R1bs.

Not according to the scientists who participated in the Karafet et al paper of 2008, which estimated the age of R1 (M173), the ancestor of R1b (M343), at 18,500 years old.

R1b is not old enough to have been in Iberia during the last Ice Age. Its descendants, R1b1b2a1a (R-U106) and R1b1b2a1b (R-P312) aren't anywhere near old enough to have been in Iberia during the last Ice Age.

The arrow points into Iberia, not out of it.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2009, 06:57:45 PM by rms2 » Logged

rms2
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« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2009, 06:56:36 PM »

For those who are self-imposed exiles from the other forum, I repeat this post here.
I am breaking my dictum and making a prediction based on only partial evidence.
I predict P312 and subclades (including L21 and U152) will turn out to be slightly more numerous in Germany than U106 and its subclades.

I agree.
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vtilroe
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« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2009, 09:03:45 PM »

I think that P312 and U106 came out of the Basque refuge.Thats why both SNPs are spread all over Europe.R1b has been in Europe for the last 25,000 years according to the Scientists, or are there two R1bs.
If this were true, we should be able to find surviving European P312 and U106 haplotypes with diversity comparable to that of haplogroup "I".  If you know of any, please let us know!

I do think that the original P312 could be older than what the "new math" currently indicates, but every time I think there's one in the bag to support that, it turns out being P312 and U106 negative.

It's very frustrating!
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rms2
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2009, 09:26:42 PM »

I think that P312 and U106 came out of the Basque refuge.Thats why both SNPs are spread all over Europe.R1b has been in Europe for the last 25,000 years according to the Scientists, or are there two R1bs.
If this were true, we should be able to find surviving European P312 and U106 haplotypes with diversity comparable to that of haplogroup "I".  If you know of any, please let us know!

I do think that the original P312 could be older than what the "new math" currently indicates, but every time I think there's one in the bag to support that, it turns out being P312 and U106 negative.

It's very frustrating!

That's very true. Our Armenian who would have driven the age estimate back a bit turned out to be P312- after all.

I recently updated the R-P312* Map. It can be seen at the link in my signature below.

There have got to be some significant SNPs downstream of P312 in that group.
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GoldenHind
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2009, 10:57:57 PM »

In looking at the latest P312* map, I am struck by the concentration of P312* in Iberia along the northern coast. Assuming it's not just some odd sampling bias, I wonder what significance it might have?
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rms2
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2009, 02:26:26 PM »

In looking at the latest P312* map, I am struck by the concentration of P312* in Iberia along the northern coast. Assuming it's not just some odd sampling bias, I wonder what significance it might have?

I've been wondering about that, too. I'm not sure how to explain it. We have some members whose ancestors came from farther south but who either have not ordered L21 or who are still awaiting results.

One thing I think that is deceptive about R-P312* is that we still tend to look at it as one, monolithic thing, which is the same mistake that was made back when we were all "R1b1c*." R-P312* may be a number of different subclades that are currently obscured. Perhaps the R-P312* in Iberia will differ from the R-P312* in France and so on.
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2009, 03:15:29 PM »

In looking at the latest P312* map, I am struck by the concentration of P312* in Iberia along the northern coast. Assuming it's not just some odd sampling bias, I wonder what significance it might have?
I think you are talking about the territories of Galicia and Asturia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asturias
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galicia_(Spain)

I'm not sure what all of this means, but these were heavy Celtic areas.  They also were areas with megaliths (3000BC - 1200BC).  There were also kurgan mound (tumulus) graves found there.

Bell Beakers?

Of course, this is also the land of Míl Espáine, mythical progenitor of the Gaels.

Is this totally all wet?  When I look at R-L21* I see areas where there were a lot of P-Celtic speaking peoples... Gaul, Britain, SE Ireland.  When I look at R-P312*, it could be easy to see that at least some varieties of R-P312* were Q-Celtic speaking (Celtiberian, Gaelic).  Perhaps these varieties of R-P312* spread first and furthest... perhaps they were Bell Beaker proto-Celts.    Later, another wave, P-Celtic came along and came part way into Q-Celtic territory.   Of course, this doesn't explain R-L21* in Scandanavia, I don't think.... unless one branch integrated with the Germanic tribes at some point.
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rms2
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2009, 09:27:48 AM »

In looking at the latest P312* map, I am struck by the concentration of P312* in Iberia along the northern coast. Assuming it's not just some odd sampling bias, I wonder what significance it might have?
I think you are talking about the territories of Galicia and Asturia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asturias
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galicia_(Spain)

I'm not sure what all of this means, but these were heavy Celtic areas.  They also were areas with megaliths (3000BC - 1200BC).  There were also kurgan mound (tumulus) graves found there.

Bell Beakers?

Of course, this is also the land of Míl Espáine, mythical progenitor of the Gaels.

Is this totally all wet?  When I look at R-L21* I see areas where there were a lot of P-Celtic speaking peoples... Gaul, Britain, SE Ireland.  When I look at R-P312*, it could be easy to see that at least some varieties of R-P312* were Q-Celtic speaking (Celtiberian, Gaelic).  Perhaps these varieties of R-P312* spread first and furthest... perhaps they were Bell Beaker proto-Celts.    Later, another wave, P-Celtic came along and came part way into Q-Celtic territory.   Of course, this doesn't explain R-L21* in Scandanavia, I don't think.... unless one branch integrated with the Germanic tribes at some point.

Quite a few of those Spanish R-P312* are bunched up over toward the east end of the northern coast and not in Galicia and Asturia.

But I think the original Basques may have possibly been something other than R1b1b2, like, say, G2, and acquired their R1b1b2 via admixture with other western Europeans.
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« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2009, 04:49:32 PM »

Vince Vizachero posted a diagram on dna-forums (http://dna-forums.org/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=1708) showing relative branch lengths between MRCA estimates for L11, U106, P312, U152, and L21.

Branch lengths are shown in years, not generations.  Of course at those small intervals, the uncertainty factors are several times greater than the branch lengths themselves.

I think it is safe to say that U106 was pre/proto-Celtic, and P312 was pre/proto Germanic.  ;)

It also helps to explain why the modal haplotypes of all of these SNPs are virtually identical.
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« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2009, 04:58:44 PM »

The ISOGG tree has been revised as of March 10. 

http://isogg.org/tree/ISOGG_HapgrpR09.html

There is no longer an R1b1b2a1b.

The new P312:
R1b1b2a1a2   P312/S116

The new L21:
R1b1b2a1a2f   L21/S145


 


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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2009, 05:56:51 PM »

The ISOGG tree has been revised as of March 10. 
http://isogg.org/tree/ISOGG_HapgrpR09.html
There is no longer an R1b1b2a1b.
The new P312: R1b1b2a1a2   P312/S116
The new L21: R1b1b2a1a2f   L21/S145
Cool.  I guess I'm a R1b1b2a1a2f* now.

Does this mean that FTDNA will now adjust how they designate us?
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« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2009, 06:48:02 PM »

I don't know what you have on your tree, but my FTDNA tree is still 312, despite being L21+.  This new ISOGG tree creates a further divergence, maybe a rift, between the two trees which are at odds. 
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« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2009, 07:06:44 PM »


I think it is safe to say that U106 was pre/proto-Celtic, and P312 was pre/proto Germanic.  ;)



If you keep up this heresey, some people will be after you with a stake, a stack of brush and a match.
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vtilroe
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« Reply #18 on: March 11, 2009, 11:36:53 PM »

I don't know what you have on your tree, but my FTDNA tree is still 312, despite being L21+.  This new ISOGG tree creates a further divergence, maybe a rift, between the two trees which are at odds. 
That rift may exist for a while.
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« Reply #19 on: March 12, 2009, 10:17:17 AM »

The timing of the new ISOGG tree was interesting, just days before the FTDNA Conference in Houston.

http://www.familytreedna.com/documents/2008-conference-schedule.pdf

ISOGG will be there. 
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cmblandford
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« Reply #20 on: March 12, 2009, 04:17:25 PM »

Quote
That rift may exist for a while

Care to share why that would be?
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« Reply #21 on: March 12, 2009, 04:36:42 PM »

"If you keep up this heresey, some people will be after you with a stake, a stack of brush and a match."

Funny, get the pitchfork, tar and feathers! Seriously, though any of those previously asserted manifestations proclaiming one haplogroup Celtic and another group Germanic definitely need to be revisited.   

Glenn Allen Nolen
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vtilroe
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« Reply #22 on: March 12, 2009, 08:59:48 PM »

Quote
That rift may exist for a while

Care to share why that would be?
Just being pessimistic. I'm not implying anything.
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« Reply #23 on: March 15, 2009, 01:38:44 PM »

As someone posted on the Rootsweb site, there is now an R1b1b2a1b5* for the L21* FTDNA haplogroup.  There are 336 on ysearch and the FT personal pages include it. P312* is a1b*.   
There is nothing between b2a1b5c and R1b1c.   So b2b through b2h are gone. 
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Jafety R1b-U152
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« Reply #24 on: March 17, 2009, 09:22:43 AM »

Let me join this interesting conversation on the R1b origins.
First of all, I do not think R1 is Indo-European. Thus nor R1b, nor R1a is IE. I can make a lot of arguements but now my focus is on R1b.
(I hope I use the most recent classification...)
So, R1b1b2a1b (S116) seems to be Bell-Beaker. It's descendants cover the Bell-Beaker area and the time (2500 BC) is also optimal. It should have originated in the Basque area or wider Southern France, this is clear from the distribution of its descendants: 2 basque branches (M65,M153), Ibero-Atlantic M167, Alpine-Celtic S28/U152, and Scots-Irish L21. I explain the spread and the corresponding languages in two other topics of this site, please see more there.
The quite youngness of the Germanic R1b (U106) and Bell-Beaker R1b (S116) branches does not necessarily contradict and Iberian origin. Now the MRCA of M269 (R1b1b2) is given 7500 BC. This goes well with the Mesolitic Azilian, Tardenoisian and Sauveterrian cultures. The spread of these cultures can represent an early R1b1b2* migration. These hunter-gatherers were then later outnumbered by Neolithic (E-M78) settlers. A high population of R1b1b2 remained only in the S France/N Spain mountanious area. Neolithic peoples occupied the river valleys and plains, while our ancestors stayed in the mountainous areas. When metallurgy was invented and bronze introduced, the mountainous territory became better as contained more metals for weapons. So they could counquer the Neolithic farmers and take their wives. Some of them continued agriculture, others migrated further. This possibly happened with the Bell-Beakers of the early Bronze Age. The original place of the Germanic U106 branch is not (yet) clear.
For pre-M269, I suppose R1b1-P25 people were the Magdalenian cave painters.

What do you think on these?
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