World Families Forums - Origins of European R1b: delusions vs. reality

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
July 31, 2014, 08:27:41 PM
Home Help Search Login Register

+  World Families Forums
|-+  General Forums - Note: You must Be Logged In to post. Anyone can browse.
| |-+  R1b General (Moderator: rms2)
| | |-+  Origins of European R1b: delusions vs. reality
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 Go Down Print
Author Topic: Origins of European R1b: delusions vs. reality  (Read 4862 times)
stoneman
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 141


« Reply #50 on: October 22, 2012, 03:48:35 PM »

Austria could be the place of origin of R1b and Ireland the birthplace of M222.
Logged
razyn
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 405


« Reply #51 on: October 22, 2012, 03:52:50 PM »


I've still got a copy of a chart from Dr Mike Hammer, FTDNA's Chief Scientist, showing R-M269 with a big black arrow going east to west across the middle of Europe. I think the arrow started somewhere around Hungary or Romania, but I'm pretty sure it was not meant to be explicit as to the starting point, just a general direction.

I think any FTDNA customer who is R1b can find that map by signing in, then from the "My FTDNA" page look under the YDNA menu tab, and select the eighth item, "Migration Maps."
Logged

R1b Z196*
Mike Walsh
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2963


WWW
« Reply #52 on: October 22, 2012, 04:44:28 PM »

Wow! I just mentioned that there was an actual chart that showed M269 as being from the Pontic Steppe. My ONLY intention was to show that the "Pontic Steppe" theory for M269 isn't just imagined.

I have no idea who made the chart. All I know is that if you go to Europedia and click on R1b, you'll find the chart.

Do I need an attorney at this point?

Of course not. Sorry, I didn't mean to be prosecutorial. I just asked the questions as to your point because your post was brief and wasn't in direct reply.  Yes, too, I agree that an alternative that has been proposed is an expansion for R1b out of the Steppes or at least the general region. That doesn't mean everyone on this forum is force fitting it, though. We are just speculating on the alternatives.

I personally think a launch pad for R1b west could have happened on almost any side of the Black Sea. Something was going on there, for sure.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2012, 05:32:50 PM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
Jaska
Member
**
Offline Offline

Posts: 27


« Reply #53 on: October 22, 2012, 06:10:18 PM »

Quote from: Mikewww
Do you have a firm position that you do know the origin of R1b and the timing of its expansions?
Me? No. I just noted that nobody seems to have any evidence for the steppe origin, nor as strong opinions as Polako thought.

I'm mostly interested in STR-haplotype trees; it would be important to reconstruct the founder haplotype for R1b based on the most basal R1b-branches and R1* and R1a. Then we could "root" all the R1b haplotypes and see where the most archaic ones are found. SNP's alone cannot tell which of the haplotypes containing certain SNP is the most archaic, but combining the SNP's and STR's we could gain very accurate reconstruction. I have done that for N1c1: http://www.mv.helsinki.fi/home/jphakkin/N1c1.pdf
Logged

Y-DNA: N1c1 Savonian
mtDNA: H5a1e
Mike Walsh
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2963


WWW
« Reply #54 on: October 22, 2012, 06:24:05 PM »

Quote from: Mikewww
Do you have a firm position that you do know the origin of R1b and the timing of its expansions?
Me? No. I just noted that nobody seems to have any evidence for the steppe origin, nor as strong opinions as Polako thought.

I agree. It's very speculative.

In my opinion, it is difficult to prove what route(s) R1b took into Europe and when. I think some of the options are being narrowed out, though... for instance, I don't think there is much of a chance that R1b extant today descended from R1b in Western Europe during Paleolithic times.

I'm curious about why Polako thinks there is strong evidence on a North African route. It's not impossible.

I'm curious as to why he picked the Fertile Crescent as an origin area as well.  In this I think we need to be discerning between Fertile Crescent component of the Near East, versus Northern Iran, Ancient Armenia and Trans-Caucasia, and the Anatolian Peninsula.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2012, 06:25:10 PM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
alan trowel hands.
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2012


« Reply #55 on: October 22, 2012, 06:37:10 PM »

The idea of steppe-envy among R1b people makes me laugh anyway.  Why on earth would someone find the most backwards place in Neolithic Europe more attractive than a Mesopotamian or Balkans one?  

Because having steppe cowboys with blond hair as ancient ancestors is a more interesting option for a lot of people.

Don't tell me you wouldn't have loved to see at least a couple of R1b results amongst all those R1a hits from the Siberian kurgans. Actually, that's a rhetorical question, because I already know the answer.

Well a lot of people must have really messed up priorities and values
« Last Edit: October 22, 2012, 07:56:07 PM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
alan trowel hands.
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2012


« Reply #56 on: October 22, 2012, 06:55:16 PM »

Nice to see a straight challenge from Polako. :)
So far no claims for the steppe origin seen here...

Quote from: Polako
Indeed, I'll ask that STR diversity of R1b clades not be mentioned in this thread, as it obviously doesn't qualify (see the Busby et al. paper for more details why STR diversity is not a reliable means of inferring the origins of Y-DNA haplogroups).
True, STR-diversity alone is meaningless, unless one can distinguish the STR-haplotypes as reconstructed lineages. Diversity should only be calculated by lineage; otherwise it is as pointless as calculating the common diversity for R1b and N1c.

Has anybody reconstructed the R1b STR-haplotype tree? Where are the oldest, basal haplotypes found? (The ones closest to the founder haplotype for R1b as a whole or some European subhaplogroup.)


Anatole Klyosov has done this for both R1a and R1b in papers this year.  Basically he places the early history of both in Siberia and really far east towards China almost. I find the sibling rivallry among R1a and R1b a bit funny to be honest, like two jealous brothers who cant get on and are bigger rivals to each other than anyone else. 
Logged
alan trowel hands.
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2012


« Reply #57 on: October 22, 2012, 07:03:41 PM »

Quote from: Mikewww
Do you have a firm position that you do know the origin of R1b and the timing of its expansions?
Me? No. I just noted that nobody seems to have any evidence for the steppe origin, nor as strong opinions as Polako thought.

I'm mostly interested in STR-haplotype trees; it would be important to reconstruct the founder haplotype for R1b based on the most basal R1b-branches and R1* and R1a. Then we could "root" all the R1b haplotypes and see where the most archaic ones are found. SNP's alone cannot tell which of the haplotypes containing certain SNP is the most archaic, but combining the SNP's and STR's we could gain very accurate reconstruction. I have done that for N1c1: http://www.mv.helsinki.fi/home/jphakkin/N1c1.pdf

Anatole's Klyosov's paper of this year actual indicates that R1a moved from Siberia and Xinxang west then passed through the Hymalyas then through Anatolia, the Balkans and only then finally passed through into the steppes, finaly crossing back into India yet again.  That may seem an incredible loop but that is what his methodology of STR analysis came up with.  He sees R1b as of similar origin but after travelling west it split at the caucasas with some heading south and some heading west through the steppes.  So he actually places R1b in and around the western steppes before R1a.  I have been meaning to post a thread linking to his 2012 papers on R1a and b to see if they stand up to criticism.  I vaguely recall there was more dismissal than critique when they came out. 
Logged
alan trowel hands.
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2012


« Reply #58 on: October 22, 2012, 07:08:29 PM »

Quote from: Mikewww
Do you have a firm position that you do know the origin of R1b and the timing of its expansions?
Me? No. I just noted that nobody seems to have any evidence for the steppe origin, nor as strong opinions as Polako thought.

I'm mostly interested in STR-haplotype trees; it would be important to reconstruct the founder haplotype for R1b based on the most basal R1b-branches and R1* and R1a. Then we could "root" all the R1b haplotypes and see where the most archaic ones are found. SNP's alone cannot tell which of the haplotypes containing certain SNP is the most archaic, but combining the SNP's and STR's we could gain very accurate reconstruction. I have done that for N1c1: http://www.mv.helsinki.fi/home/jphakkin/N1c1.pdf


Klyosov's analysis of R1b

http://www.scirp.org/Journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=19567

His analysis of R1a

http://www.scribd.com/doc/99488100/Haplogroup-R1a-as-the-Proto-Indo-Europeans-and-the-Legendary-Aryans-as-Witnessed-by-the-DNA-of-Their-Current-Descendants-A-Klyosov


I would tend to ignore his linguistic and cultural identifications but I find his analysis of the clusters etc very interesting
« Last Edit: October 22, 2012, 07:12:43 PM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
A_Wode
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 100


« Reply #59 on: October 22, 2012, 07:39:48 PM »

Quote from: Mikewww
Do you have a firm position that you do know the origin of R1b and the timing of its expansions?
it would be important to reconstruct the founder haplotype for R1b based on the most basal R1b-branches and R1* and R1a.

There is no R1* or R* found to date. With the right SNP tests these usually become R1b1-V88, R1a*, or R2.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2012, 07:42:54 PM by A_Wode » Logged
Jaska
Member
**
Offline Offline

Posts: 27


« Reply #60 on: October 23, 2012, 10:47:48 AM »

Quote from: alan trowel hands
Anatole Klyosov has done this for both R1a and R1b in papers this year.  Basically he places the early history of both in Siberia and really far east towards China almost. I find the sibling rivallry among R1a and R1b a bit funny to be honest, like two jealous brothers who cant get on and are bigger rivals to each other than anyone else.
Thanks! I was aware of his R1a papers but not about the new R1b paper.
Logged

Y-DNA: N1c1 Savonian
mtDNA: H5a1e
razyn
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 405


« Reply #61 on: October 23, 2012, 11:14:32 AM »

I was aware of it, but hadn't looked at it.  The haplotype data are from Zhong et al 2010, before the discovery of Z196 (subsequently trumped by the discovery of DF27), and the subclades that interest me aren't covered, beyond P312.  However, Klyosov talks about things (esp. on the Rootsweb Genealogy-DNA-L list) that are much more current than what is covered in this paper.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2012, 11:15:09 AM by razyn » Logged

R1b Z196*
alan trowel hands.
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2012


« Reply #62 on: October 23, 2012, 12:39:38 PM »

I was aware of it, but hadn't looked at it.  The haplotype data are from Zhong et al 2010, before the discovery of Z196 (subsequently trumped by the discovery of DF27), and the subclades that interest me aren't covered, beyond P312.  However, Klyosov talks about things (esp. on the Rootsweb Genealogy-DNA-L list) that are much more current than what is covered in this paper.

I am not remotely qualified to comment on his mathematics but I have to admire him giving it a real good brave go at it.  However, IMO he should stick to that and the geography and lay off the identification with cultures and languages because I think he always seems to damage his cred when he does that and its clearly way outside his comfort zone.  All said, I do admire him having a go at this and to be honest I no longer think of him as an R1a mad Kurganist.  I was taken aback when I read his R1a and R1b papers from this year and he actually placed R1b as the culture that entered the steppes (well on of the branches of R1b) from the east (the other going south throught the Caucuses and through Anatolia and then the Balkans.  He actually argued that R1a started in a similar very far to the east position as R1b (not surprising given they are both from R1) then moved south through the Himalayas and cross Anatolia before entering Europe at the Balkans and spreading east into the steppes.  I really didnt expect that and the fact he concluded that suggest to me he is open minded.  The only archaeological way I can intepret R1a doing that route into Europe is if it crossed into the Balkans with the Anatolian element of the Balkans Neolithic, a scenario that also seems possible and has been argued for R1b.  There are several cultures with strong Anatolian links in the east and central Balkans from c. 5200BC to significantly later. Ultimately there could be some sort of link with the dairy pastoralism that first crossed into Europe by this route around this time.  However, these links continued for quite some time so there could have been a long flow.  It is interesting to see Anatole putting a scenario for R1a that would also fit those cultural links.  I have long had a hunch that both were in the farming part of SE Europe in that kind of period.  I dont put any store at all by the distribution and frequency today and only really take seriously studies that look at the ages and phylogeny of clades and their geography. I suppose what Anatole is saying for R1a (and what many here were also thinking for R1b) is that these lines may have been brought in by a trickle of farmers who moved into the steppes, possibly from both SE Europe and also the east side of the Black Sea or even further east (when you read into the archaeology of the Neolithic steppes it is fiendishly complex and bordering on impossible to conclude much).  I think that is a possible although its also possible that both were on the steppes and marginal to farming, something that the lack of expansion in the early Neolithic implied by their trees may support.  In summary, anything still seems possible.

One thing that attracts me slightly to Anatole's R1a hypothesis is that it ties in with something about Anthony's model that tends not to be highlighted - that he places the roots of Saetem languages as part of a powerful westwards thrust from the steppes-farmer contact zone c. 2800BC by cultures with a definate Corded Ware element.  That would potentially fit into Anatole's idea of R1a entering the steppes from the west.         
Logged
Mike Walsh
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2963


WWW
« Reply #63 on: October 23, 2012, 01:14:16 PM »

....However, Klyosov talks about things (esp. on the Rootsweb Genealogy-DNA-L list) that are much more current than what is covered in this paper.

I am not remotely qualified to comment on his mathematics but I have to admire him giving it a real good brave go at it.  ....

One thing that attracts me slightly to Anatole's R1a hypothesis is that it ties in with something about Anthony's model that tends not to be highlighted - that he places the roots of Saetem languages as part of a powerful westwards thrust from the steppes-farmer contact zone c. 2800BC by cultures with a definate Corded Ware element.  That would potentially fit into Anatole's idea of R1a entering the steppes from the west.        

I think Anatole K's communication style is a bit eccentric and I don't know about all of his cultural/linguistic assignments. Just go with the caveat he is willing to speculate.

However, my interpretation is that his mathematics are very useful (with possible exception of his error ranges) and I think he is doing a good hard, honest look at all of the data available.  He tries to make conclusion based on the data and when new data comes in he is quite willing to adjust his conclusions. I guess I'm just saying I think his stuff is worth reading. You might have to put aside that some correlations with cultures may be off (or maybe not!) but he is looking quite hard at the genetic data and he is intelligent, no doubt.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2012, 06:23:47 PM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
Mark Jost
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 707


« Reply #64 on: October 23, 2012, 04:08:14 PM »

I combined almost 6,500 SNP Tested haplotypes under R1b-M343 from Mike's most recent spread sheets and calculated a Founder's Age of:


YrsPerGen=30  Count N=6,499   

Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP  +OR-YBP  Max-YBP  VAR  SD
127.3  33.8  3,818.8  1,015.3  4,834.1  14.146  3.761

(SNP tested L21, P312xL21, U106 and R1b-M343 haplotypes used)

The whole population (Coalescence Age) is exactly the same.

And a confidence level of 95.45% (3 Sigma) would be only +- 356 years range where the existing +-1,015 year range of the Founders age is at 100% confidence for a Max age of 4,834.

Hummmmmmmmm..........

MJost
Logged

148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
alan trowel hands.
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2012


« Reply #65 on: October 23, 2012, 04:49:06 PM »

....However, Klyosov talks about things (esp. on the Rootsweb Genealogy-DNA-L list) that are much more current than what is covered in this paper.

I am not remotely qualified to comment on his mathematics but I have to admire him giving it a real good brave go at it.  ....

One thing that attracts me slightly to Anatole's R1a hypothesis is that it ties in with something about Anthony's model that tends not to be highlighted - that he places the roots of Saetem languages as part of a powerful westwards thrust from the steppes-farmer contact zone c. 2800BC by cultures with a definate Corded Ware element.  That would potentially fit into Anatole's idea of R1a entering the steppes from the west.        

I think Anatole K's communication style is a bit eccentric and I don't know about all of his cultural/linguistic assignments. Just go with the caveat he is willing to speculate.

However, my interpretation is that his mathematics are very useful (with possible exception of his error ranges) and I think he is doing a good hard, honest look at all of the data available.  He tries to make conclusion based on the data and when new data comes in he is quite willing to adjust his conclusions. I guess I'm just saying I think his stuff is worth reading. You might have put aside that some correlations with cultures may be off (or maybe not!) but he is looking quite hard at the genetic data and he is intelligent, no doubt.


That pretty well summarises what I think.  I just wondered if there are any obvious weaknesses from a Mathematics point of view such as no. of markers, samples size or in the formulae he uses
« Last Edit: October 23, 2012, 04:50:58 PM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
Mark Jost
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 707


« Reply #66 on: October 23, 2012, 05:01:31 PM »

M222 Founders Age n=632 (for Reference)

YBP    +OR-YBP         +-3Sigma
1,656.2     668.7            326.4


Close to AK's Mutation Counting analysis 2012 paper.

"Multiple analyses of M222 haplotype datasets gave a time-span to its common ancestor of currently living M222 descen-dants of 1450 ± 160 years (Klyosov, 2010e)."

MJost
« Last Edit: October 23, 2012, 09:08:45 PM by Mark Jost » Logged

148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
Mike Walsh
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2963


WWW
« Reply #67 on: October 23, 2012, 06:29:04 PM »

...
YrsPerGen=30  Count N=6,499   

Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP  +OR-YBP  Max-YBP  VAR  SD
127.3  33.8  3,818.8  1,015.3  4,834.1  14.146  3.761

(SNP tested L21, P312xL21, U106 and R1b-M343 haplotypes used)...

The R1b-M343 data you used is from the M343xU106xP312 spreadsheet, right?

The only caveat I have at first glance is this is primarily a "western" biased sample.

Well, another caveat is that this is intraclade, not interclade.  Have you tried any interclades like between L23xL11 and L11?  It looks like the L23xL11 groups will just come down to a few subclades anyway.

Here are the early branches of R1b (M343):
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b_Descendancy_Tree.jpg

How many long R1b-M335 haplotypes are in the file? Perhaps we could do an interclade of M269 and M335 and then one of R1b-P297 and R1b-V88.  I wonder if the the very large number of L11 (P312+U106) people will impact this. This might be a time for multiple randomly re-sampled runs of L11 data. Do you know if/how Ken's engine accounts for an imbalance of data between the paired clades?
« Last Edit: October 23, 2012, 06:35:44 PM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
alan trowel hands.
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2012


« Reply #68 on: October 23, 2012, 07:46:00 PM »

I combined almost 6,500 SNP Tested haplotypes under R1b-M343 from Mike's most recent spread sheets and calculated a Founder's Age of:


YrsPerGen=30  Count N=6,499   

Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP  +OR-YBP  Max-YBP  VAR  SD
127.3  33.8  3,818.8  1,015.3  4,834.1  14.146  3.761

(SNP tested L21, P312xL21, U106 and R1b-M343 haplotypes used)

The whole population (Coalescence Age) is exactly the same.

And a confidence level of 95.45% (3 Sigma) would be only +- 356 years range where the existing +-1,015 year range of the Founders age is at 100% confidence for a Max age of 4,834.

Hummmmmmmmm..........

MJost

Crazy stuff.  Normally it comes out vastly older than that in interclades. 
Logged
Mark Jost
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 707


« Reply #69 on: October 23, 2012, 11:14:38 PM »

...
YrsPerGen=30  Count N=6,499   

Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP  +OR-YBP  Max-YBP  VAR  SD
127.3  33.8  3,818.8  1,015.3  4,834.1  14.146  3.761

(SNP tested L21, P312xL21, U106 and R1b-M343 haplotypes used)...

The R1b-M343 data you used is from the M343xU106xP312 spreadsheet, right?

The only caveat I have at first glance is this is primarily a "western" biased sample.

Well, another caveat is that this is intraclade, not interclade.  Have you tried any interclades like between L23xL11 and L11?  It looks like the L23xL11 groups will just come down to a few subclades anyway.

Here are the early branches of R1b (M343):
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b_Descendancy_Tree.jpg

How many long R1b-M335 haplotypes are in the file? Perhaps we could do an interclade of M269 and M335 and then one of R1b-P297 and R1b-V88.  I wonder if the the very large number of L11 (P312+U106) people will impact this. This might be a time for multiple randomly re-sampled runs of L11 data. Do you know if/how Ken's engine accounts for an imbalance of data between the paired clades?

Yes, the R1b-M343 and subclades data is what I used is from the M343xU106xP312 spreadsheet pulling only 67 marker haplotypes from the file that contains only M269 and outwards.

I updated what I previously posed, earlier today.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0By9Y3jb2fORNMUVUTF83LW9HN28/edit

My modification for Interclade is based on a STR standard deviation calculation of the
each clades Founder generation and each variance and SD. The Founders variance was calculated by Excel internal Var (Sample n-1) improving results.

Here is Ken vs my mod results using the same STRs AND rates with n=401:
 
Gen111T   GB coal=   113.6   GB Founder =  122.3
Mod   GB coal=   113.6   GB Founder =  113.9

Gen111T   GAB=   130.9         
Mod   GAB=   113.8         

I dont think we have to worry about sample size. But the idea of the "unbiased estimate" is that if we draw out a sample of n items from an unknown population and compute the variance for that sample using a ordinary (biased) variance equation then we take another sample of n and compute the variance for that sample, and so on, and then after some number of runs we take the mean of all these variances. It then gets deeper than this if considering an unbiased variance estimate is to use a "weighted" mean.

Where are the stats guru's when we need one.

MJost



Logged

148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
Mark Jost
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 707


« Reply #70 on: October 23, 2012, 11:28:26 PM »

Quote from: alan trowel hands. link=topic=11469.msg142058#msg142058

Crazy stuff.  Normally it comes out vastly older than that in interclades.  

L11, even M269 isn't that far from

U106 & P312 xL21(67M)
Interclade Gen: 121.2 GenSD: 33.0 TMRCA: 3,637.0  TMRCASD: 990.9

But the issue is not enough haplotypes down on the trunk of R1b.

I can increase quanties by using the first 37 markers but I feel 67 should be the mininum since we pull so many multi-copy marker out dragging it down to 24 at 37 markers.

As n increases the distance between the whole population and the sample of the population (Founder) decreases towards zero.

MJost
« Last Edit: October 24, 2012, 08:49:16 AM by Mark Jost » Logged

148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
Mike Walsh
Guru
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2963


WWW
« Reply #71 on: October 24, 2012, 12:40:53 AM »

I combined almost 6,500 SNP Tested haplotypes under R1b-M343 from Mike's most recent spread sheets and calculated a Founder's Age of:


YrsPerGen=30  Count N=6,499   

Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP  +OR-YBP  Max-YBP  VAR  SD
127.3  33.8  3,818.8  1,015.3  4,834.1  14.146  3.761

(SNP tested L21, P312xL21, U106 and R1b-M343 haplotypes used)

The whole population (Coalescence Age) is exactly the same.

And a confidence level of 95.45% (3 Sigma) would be only +- 356 years range where the existing +-1,015 year range of the Founders age is at 100% confidence for a Max age of 4,834.

Hummmmmmmmm..........

MJost

Crazy stuff.  Normally it comes out vastly older than that in interclades. 

Keep in mind the M343 estimate is the whole thing, which will be swamped (biased) by P312 and U106 in our sample.

Per Jaska's concern in another thread, we should separate out the different lineages and do interclade calculations, but we have relatively small samples from the non L11 branches, particularly at branching above (earlier than) L23.
Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
Arch Y.
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 292


« Reply #72 on: October 26, 2012, 04:10:47 AM »

What makes you confident that this pattern will not be repeated other than speculation?

Because it would be a complete turnaround from what we've seen to date, and wouldn't match the distribution and frequencies of M269 clades across West Eurasia. Sure, miracles do happen, but I think it's more useful to be pragmatic.

And I'm not particularly interested in proving the origins of M269 in the Near East, simply because I don't have much interest in M269. But the fact that many people are trying to force its presence in the ancient cultures of Eastern Europe does intrigue me, although I'm starting to think this has more to do with some sort of mass hallucination than any objective assessment of the relevant facts.

No, many people are not trying to force an R1b-western steppe link. If it's 50% of the folks that post here, I'd be surprised.

You nailed it right on the head! I don't see anywhere in these forums where some person has argued his or her point for a steppes origin for R1b has been absolutely proven beyond a doubt. If anything, far as I know, are the authors who argue for an origins of the Indo-European language from the steppe (and its old material at that).

Arch

Logged
Arch Y.
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 292


« Reply #73 on: October 26, 2012, 04:45:03 AM »

Austria could be the place of origin of R1b and Ireland the birthplace of M222.

Could be... you never know. I am still hooked on my Iberian pet theory, for at least SRY2627; however, I'm not opposed to looking at other options. Until something is compelling enough to make me change my mind, I think the Iberian theories have sufficient evidence for now. Though I would not be surprised if there were two major paths where SRY2627 crossed the Pyrenees or around them into the rest of Europe.

Arch
Logged
Curtis Pigman(Pigmon)
Old Hand
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 106


« Reply #74 on: October 26, 2012, 05:32:35 PM »

“The Iberomaurusians did not originate in the Near East nor the Egyptian Sudan. Neither did they come from Spain via the Strait of Gibraltar. They are probably Italian Epigravettians, who landed in Tunisia 24,000 years ago. From there, they spread towards the west (Morocco) and the east (the Egyptian Sudan), taking the place of the Aterian aborigines. Their ancestors were Aterians who, ca 50,000 years ago, possibly also making use of a marine regression, had reached the northern shores of the Mediterranean and had gradually replaced the original Neanderthal population of that area”.

@ Pigmon
Many thanks for this paper of 1985, which I didn’t know. This would explain many things. My theory of the Italian Refugium didn’t go back so much, not to the LGM but to the Younger Dryas. With many people here and on other forums who thought that R1b was a few thousands years old to go back to the Younger Dryas was already much. But this was the idea I wrote to Fulvio Cruciani about the R-V88+ in Africa.

You are welcome.  Here is a map from wikipedia showing the  R1b1c (R-V88)  in Cameroon and Chadic speaking areas of Africa:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haplogroup_R1b_%28Y-DNA%29

The article says the origin is Southwest Asia (Yemen? Sri Lanka? Thailand?):

Possible time of origin    less than 18,500 years BP[1]
Possible place of origin    Southwest Asia[2]
Ancestor    R1
Descendants    R1b1a (R-P297), R1b1b (R-M335), R1b1c (R-V88)
Defining mutations    1. M343 defines R1b in the broadest sense
2. P25 defines R1b1, making up most of R1b, and is often used to test for R1b
3. In some cases, major downstream mutations such as M269 are used to identify R1b, especially in regional or out-of-date studies
Highest frequencies    Western Europe, Northern Cameroon, Hazara, Bashkirs

"THE ANSWER IS OUT THERE!"
« Last Edit: October 26, 2012, 05:43:51 PM by Curtis Pigman(Pigmon) » Logged

R1b1a2a1a1b3c3a L2+ Z49+ Z142+ (L20-,L196-,and L562-)
ysearch.org ID ZHHCY

Website:  curtisnsissy.tripod.com
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 Go Up Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


SEO light theme by © Mustang forums. Powered by SMF 1.1.13 | SMF © 2006-2011, Simple Machines LLC

Page created in 0.132 seconds with 18 queries.