P312** List - Brythonic?

[Castlebob]

There are currently 13 people who are P312**. Their surnames are:
Armstrong
McFarlane
Williams
Jenkins
Ellis
Ireland
Meek
Crosby
Hatton
Keyes
Reader
Hewitt
Fimbres

The first two may be of Kingdom of Rheged/Strathclyde Brythonic Celt stock, while
Williams & Jenkins are probably of Welsh Brythonic stock?
The Ellis member has a 17th C ancestor from N Wales. Crosby has Bristol (western England links in the early 18th C).
Ireland has ancestors from Lancashire in the early 18th C, while Meek is of Antrim stock.
Fimbres appears to be Spanish/French.
I appreciate that these may be split apart by further testing, but the common denominator for most of the above is that they are via the western side of these isles, so potentially Brythonic Celt stock.
Am I misguided in thinking there may be something in this?
Bob

[Mark Jost]

Bob thanks for the kit numbers. I ran an Interclade age and each founders ages. Very close numbers and "Isles based?".

MJost


67(50)Markers   Sheet Mutation Rate: 0.11113
 STRs not used: 385,389i,459,464,CDY,YCAII,395S1 & 413

L21 ALL (111Markers using 67)  
YrsPerGen*  Count
30   N=1048

Founder'sAge  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP  +-YBP  Max  VAR  SD
114.6  32.1  3,438.8  963.5  4,402.3  12.738  3.569


P312**   67 markers
YrsPerGen*  Count
30   N=9

Founder'sAge  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP  +-YBP  Max  VAR  SD
113.5  32.0  3,404.5  958.7  4,363.2  12.611  3.551
      

TRUE MRCA  InterClade AB Founder      
Pooled SD Clades  A & B  Interclade

YrsPerGen*
30

GAB: P312* for L21 ALL (111Markers) & P312**

Founder'sAge  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP  +-YBP  PooledVar  PooledSD

114.7  32.1  3,440.0  963.7  12.743  3.570

[Castlebob]

Thanks Mark,
Much appreciated. I'm solid on genealogical stuff, but an idiot on science-based work!
Cheers,
Bob

[Mark Jost]

Thanks Mark,
Much appreciated. I'm a complete duffer at this level of analysis. Can you tell me if there is any link & at what approx timescale? I'm solid on genealogical stuff, but an idiot on science-based work!
Cheers,
Bob

L21 son didnt move far from P312** father?

In a Z253 post, this subclade didnt move far from L21 dad either.

Speculation only.

MJost

[Castlebob]

Fascinating, Mark.
Interesting to see the close timeframe.
Bob

[Castlebob]

If you use use Ancestry's Surname Census tool, or similar, it's noticeable that many of the names mentioned earlier have their heaviest presence in Wales, Lancashire, Cumberland, Cheshire & central southern Scotland.
Obviously the introduction of trains allowed people more mobility, but the 1840 Census may be a reasonable indicator of the folk listed's traditional homeland.
Bob

[Diana Sotela]

I have  a question about your list.  Are you only counting from those who are from the isles and leaving out all the other Iberian P312+??

My father is Iberian and most of his matches are concentrated in N. Ireland and Wales.

[Castlebob]

No Diana,
The list is just those who have tested & are P312**. There are only 13 who tested as far as we have & are still negative. I gather a 14th is being tested now, but is likely to join our group.
Bob

[Diana Sotela]

What is P312** and tested how far?  You mean negative for everything below even DF27 and Z196 ?

[Diana Sotela]

Ah never mind I see Reader on the list and I know who that is.  Still in P312+ limbo.  There has to be undiscovered SNP between that and the next catagory below.

[Castlebob]

I notice that your relative (?) mentioned at the foot of your post is DF27+, Diana. The 13 listed are all DF27-.
Bob

[brianlm]

G'day Castlebob,
Do you have a kit number for the McFarlane in your list?
Many thanks,
Brian McFarlane

[Castlebob]

I've Private Messaged you, Brian. Hope it helps.
Cheers,
Bob

[stoneman]

If you want my opinion 6,800 would be a better TMRCA for P312. 10,000 for M269 after the Younger Dryas.


 

Bob thanks for the kit numbers. I ran an Interclade age and each founders ages. Very close numbers and "Isles based?".

MJost


67(50)Markers   Sheet Mutation Rate: 0.11113
 STRs not used: 385,389i,459,464,CDY,YCAII,395S1 & 413

L21 ALL (111Markers using 67)  
YrsPerGen*  Count
30   N=1048

Founder'sAge  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP  +-YBP  Max  VAR  SD
114.6  32.1  3,438.8  963.5  4,402.3  12.738  3.569


P312**   67 markers
YrsPerGen*  Count
30   N=9

Founder'sAge  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP  +-YBP  Max  VAR  SD
113.5  32.0  3,404.5  958.7  4,363.2  12.611  3.551
      

TRUE MRCA  InterClade AB Founder      
Pooled SD Clades  A & B  Interclade

YrsPerGen*
30

GAB: P312* for L21 ALL (111Markers) & P312**

Founder'sAge  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP  +-YBP  PooledVar  PooledSD

114.7  32.1  3,440.0  963.7  12.743  3.570

[Mark Jost]

If you want my opinion 6,800 would be a better TMRCA for P312. 10,000 for M269 after the Younger Dryas.

Counting SNPs? Again I dont think the proper usage study is in yet.

Even Anatole Klyosov has calculated

http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2012-08/1345920485
 ">
 > ...... Since both P312 and U106 have an "age" of about 4200 years,
 > their common ancestor lived (4200+4200+1200)/2 = 4800 years ago.



My (Anatole Klyosov) comment:
 
"This is not that much different" is an understatement. They are the same,
since even with the 10% margin of error they are 4800+/-480 and 4500+/-450
ybp. In fact, even within 5% margin of error they are still the same:
4800+/-240 and 4500+/-225 ybp."


MJost

[stoneman]

Does the fact that he is Anatole Klyosov make his calculations correct? Do you expect me to believe that one man who lived 4800 ybp is the ancestor of 300,000,000 R1b males? Even at 10,000 ybp it is hard to believe it.There is one Italian poster on this forum who isnt R1b-L11 and his line has survived for thousands of years.

[Mark Jost]

Founders calculation with or without L21 added xPredicted.

U106 (67M)         N=1339  YBP= 3,222.9 +-932.8  (3 Sigma Confidence = +-608.6)
P312 xL21 (67M)   N=1671  YBP= 3,678.6 +-996.5  (3 Sigma Confidence = +-664.4)
Pooled SD Interclade to known MRCA  (Assumed to be L11)  YBP=  3,638.3  +- 991.1


Here I used xPredicted and I added back all of L21 into P312 List with 5,647 Hts.
 
P312 xL21 & L21 (67M)   N=4647  YBP= 3,684.2 +-997.3  (3 Sigma Confidence = +-399.3)
Pooled SD Interclade to known MRCA  (Assumed to be L11)  YBP=  3,681.3  +- 996.9

This last pairing has three off modals at 449, 456 & CDYa. And same median diff's on 449 and CDYa.

No real difference between P312 with or with L21.

MJost

[Mark Jost]

Does the fact that he is Anatole Klyosov make his calculations correct? Do you expect me to believe that one man who lived 4800 ybp is the ancestor of 300,000,000 R1b males? Even at 10,000 ybp it is hard to believe it.There is one Italian poster on this forum who isnt R1b-L11 and his line has survived for thousands of years.

I look at the fact that there was a very low growth rate (daughtering out/Bottlenecks) until there was a very sharp upswing starting around 1000BC. Why was it estimated that events in which a significant percentage of the world populations is killed or otherwise prevented from reproducing? It appears that population growth in larger numbers began to expand in the Late Stone Age.

Things are not linear as you think.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b7/Population_curve.svg

MJost

[razyn]

Do you expect me to believe that one man who lived 4800 ybp is the ancestor of 300,000,000 R1b males?

That would seem to me a perfectly reasonable thing to believe.  It would require having an average of two surviving sons per generation (of 30 years) for 28 of the generations since 4800 ybp; and there have been about 160 such generations, so it's OK even if there were some famines, plagues, volcanoes, infertilities and so on.  And several other guys in Europe who were also fairly good breeders.

We are fortunate that most of the males living 4800 years ago weren't that successful.

[Mark Jost]

Do you expect me to believe that one man who lived 4800 ybp is the ancestor of 300,000,000 R1b males?

We are fortunate that most of the males living 4800 years ago weren't that successful.

...findings suggest that the Neolithic, or new Stone Age, period in Britain was much more violent than previously thought.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/060518-skulls.html

MJost

[Mark Jost]

Interesting map of population from 1AD with a world population of 150Million people.  End of Part 9.

http://waynesword.palomar.edu/lmexer9.htm

MJost

[seferhabahir]

Interesting map of population from 1AD with a world population of 150Million people.  End of Part 9.

http://waynesword.palomar.edu/lmexer9.htm

MJost

Here is another type of map from Year 1, with this one estimating 231 million people.

http://www.worldmapper.org/display.php?selected=7

An 80 million person discrepancy is noteworthy. What's the more realistic number?

[seferhabahir]

An 80 million person discrepancy is noteworthy. What's the more realistic number?

U.S. census estimates somewhere between 170 and 400 million in Year 1. See below

http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php

[Mark Jost]

Here is another type of map from Year 1, with this one estimating 231 million people.

http://www.worldmapper.org/display.php?selected=7

An 80 million person discrepancy is noteworthy. What's the more realistic number?

Thanks for sharing the strangest map I have ever seen. :)

Your correct in wondering the big swing in population estimates which seems that the same core of data isnt the same or atleast the way it is analyized.

Looking at the last chart shows several different studies but mostly in line with each other.  What I was interested in was the population of Europe, specifically Western Europe.  Here is one starting around 500 AD

Medieval Sourcebook:  Tables on Population in Medieval Europe

http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/source/pop-in-eur.asp

What is interesting is Eastern Europe scant populations and also the Isles as compared to the Continental where Germany/Scandinavia fell flat when comparing to France.


MJost

[Mark Jost]

Interesting map of population from 1AD with a world population of 150Million people.  End of Part 9.

http://waynesword.palomar.edu/lmexer9.htm

MJost

Looking at this map at around 1 AD sure seems to point to Coastal population initally.  This can not be far off in representation of L11 and its subclades?

Antiquity and Middle Ages
 
Main articles: Classical demography and Medieval demography
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

A dramatic population bottleneck is theorized for the period around 70,000 BC as a result of the Toba supervolcano eruption. From this time until the development of agriculture around the 11th millennium BC, it is estimated that the world population stabilized at about one million people, whose subsistence entailed hunting and foraging – a lifestyle that by its nature ensured a low population density. The total world population probably never exceeded 15 million inhabitants before the invention of agriculture.[20] By contrast, it is estimated that around 50–60 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire in the 4th century AD.[21]

MJost