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Author Topic: The L23 Split - L51 & Z2105  (Read 2214 times)
Richard Rocca
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« on: October 15, 2012, 10:27:52 AM »

If the current testing trend continues and all previous L23(xL51) turn out to be Z2105+, one thing becomes evident: most modern western European L23 lineages cannot derive from most modern eastern European L23 lineages, but rather they are both derived from a common ancestor.

This brings up some interesting R1b observations:
1. IMO, the western Balkans still offer the best branching point for M269 as it is the only place where M269(xL23) seems to have any meaningful frequency.
2. IMO, if the distribution of L11's close cousin L51* (probably belonging to the still unavailable for testing Z2111 group) tells us anything it is that it probably branched somewhere between northern Italy and southern France. Let's also not forget that variance shows that U152 is oldest among P312's children and its center of frequency is in the Alps.
3. Since Balaresque reported L23+ variance highest in Turkey (Caucasus not tested) and Myres reported L23* variance highest in the Caucasus, Z2105 should be somewhat older than L51. This could be telling us that the branching of L23 lineages were not as simple as just a bi-directional expansion from a single location.
4. So far, Armenian L23(xL51) has been the most tested group with 6 of 6 being L2105+.
5. The intriguing Albanian L23(xL51) cluster is also Z2105+. This is proven as one of its members, a Sicilian "Arberesh" which is an old Albanian ethnic minority, has tested Z2105+. This highlights how deceiving a single STR can be as some were saying it may be the true predecessor of L51 given its WAMH modal value of DYS393=13.

IMO, the Adriatic still seems to be the dividing point or the branching point of both L23 lineages with some expected but minimal overlap on either side (Italy and the western Balkans).

I'd like to hear what others have observed.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2012, 02:53:49 PM »

If the current testing trend continues and all previous L23(xL51) turn out to be Z2105+, one thing becomes evident: most modern western European L23 lineages cannot derive from most modern eastern European L23 lineages, but rather they are both derived from a common ancestor.
....
 This highlights how deceiving a single STR can be as some were saying it may be the true predecessor of L51 given its WAMH modal value of DYS393=13.

I generally agree with the points you made but I really can't say much other than to speculate.

I do want to make a point on common ancestry. Not much has really changed. It would have always been a mistake to view western R1b-L23 lineages as derived from eastern ones. Our eastern L23 haplotypes are also modern people. We just know there was one L23* MRCA a long time ago that both the western and eastern folks descend from.

An asterisk designation in a modern person really just means we haven't discovered their SNP path yet.

That is not to say Z2105 may be proving that eastern L23 is monolithic in regards to being separate. This appears to be the case.

I agree that a single STR can be deceiving and this may be the case or may not.

Richard, have you looked at the L51xL11 haplotypes from the studies? The ones I've seen in our projects are all 426=13. One STR can be deceiving, but this about as slow an STR as we can find. L51* appears to be a singular subclade to me with diversity in line with European R1b subclades in general.

Perhaps we need to get this guy in the R1b U106- P312- ht35 project tested?
31452    Heinrich Bergen (1745-1812) GM#43827    R1b1a2a1a    L51+

He could be L51*. I don't why he hasn't tested for L11, but he is 426=11. That's not 426=12 even. That's one more GD step away. One does not a trend make, but if Bergen of the Netherlands is L51* that would be interesting..... maybe that would probably bring Roukus back!  Maybe this a Dutch vs Italian argument. LOL.

...3. Since Balaresque reported L23+ variance highest in Turkey (Caucasus not tested) and Myres reported L23* variance highest in the Caucasus, Z2105 should be somewhat older than L51. This could be telling us that the branching of L23 lineages were not as simple as just a bi-directional expansion from a single location.
4. So far, Armenian L23(xL51) has been the most tested group with 6 of 6 being L2105+.

Part of this means we really don't have any reason to think that a flip occurred in L23* long, long ago from 390=12 to 13 in Anatolia and then the 390=13 went west.  

It looks like Z2105 will be a very old subclade.

« Last Edit: October 15, 2012, 11:25:50 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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Richard Rocca
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2012, 09:45:00 PM »

I do want to make a point on common ancestry. Not much has really changed. It would have always been a mistake to view western R1b-L23 lineages as derived from eastern ones. Our eastern L23 haplotypes are also modern people. We just know there was one L23* TMRCA a long time ago that both the western and eastern folks descend from.

An asterisk designation in a modern person really just means we haven't discovered their SNP path yet.

I think things have changed somewhat. If eastern L23+ lineages belonged to 100 sub lineages with high variance then the speculation could have been that the first to-be western European male lived among them and simply took his L51 west with him. That is still possible, however the fact that all eastern L23 might belong to just Z2105 makes that much less likely IMO.
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2012, 10:10:12 PM »

I must say it is true that the ignoring of the singificant M269* in the central Balkans and the fact that in Kosovo you have a rare combination of raised M269* and L23* is odd and is probably not highlighted often because it doesnt fit many people's models.  Taken at face value this would imply M269* happened in the Balkans and perhaps L23* too and that there was a thrust east first.  This is all at least possible in the genesis of Cuc-Tryp and its subsequent dispersal west and south from the western edges of the steppes when aridity hit.  I am actually fairly convinced that the dispersal of that massive population was more important than the limited impact of steppes peoples. 
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2012, 11:31:14 PM »

I must say it is true that the ignoring of the singificant M269* in the central Balkans and the fact that in Kosovo you have a rare combination of raised M269* and L23* is odd and is probably not highlighted often because it doesnt fit many people's models.  Taken at face value this would imply M269* happened in the Balkans and perhaps L23* too and that there was a thrust east first.  This is all at least possible in the genesis of Cuc-Tryp and its subsequent dispersal west and south from the western edges of the steppes when aridity hit.  I am actually fairly convinced that the dispersal of that massive population was more important than the limited impact of steppes peoples.  

Perhaps this should be over in the Indo-European thread, but do you think it is likely or even possible that the Cucuteni-Trypillian people were some pre-PIE speaking people and therefore adopted full PIE fairly easily? If so, that would make it easier to accept R1a people from the steppes bringing full PIE and influencing C-T and R1b folks there but ultimately not dominating it paternal lineage wise.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2012, 11:32:17 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2012, 05:58:36 PM »

I must say it is true that the ignoring of the singificant M269* in the central Balkans and the fact that in Kosovo you have a rare combination of raised M269* and L23* is odd and is probably not highlighted often because it doesnt fit many people's models.  Taken at face value this would imply M269* happened in the Balkans and perhaps L23* too and that there was a thrust east first.  This is all at least possible in the genesis of Cuc-Tryp and its subsequent dispersal west and south from the western edges of the steppes when aridity hit.  I am actually fairly convinced that the dispersal of that massive population was more important than the limited impact of steppes peoples.  

Perhaps this should be over in the Indo-European thread, but do you think it is likely or even possible that the Cucuteni-Trypillian people were some pre-PIE speaking people and therefore adopted full PIE fairly easily? If so, that would make it easier to accept R1a people from the steppes bringing full PIE and influencing C-T and R1b folks there but ultimately not dominating it paternal lineage wise.

I wish I knew!  I just have never been happy the way it takes tortured complex models to explain IE in so much of Europe through steppe intruders.  I think the only thing that the sort of linguistic forensics that has been carried out tells us is that PIE evolved somewhere in eastern Europe or SW Asia in the late Neolithic in an area that had contact with horses, wheels etc prior to dispersal of IE.  Note that IEs dont have to have invented these things.  They just had to have words for them. I still feel that there may be some huge twists in this.  All we really know of eastern R1a was in the steppes c. 2000BC in Andronova and Sintasha (seen as ancestral to Indic and Iranian groups) and later.  Before that all we have is a corded ware guy in Germany c. 2600BC.  It is interesting to me that Anthony links Andronovo-Sintasha-Abashevo-Fatyanovo-Balanovo (eastern Corded Ware) chain. That ultimately provides a link back from R1a to Corded Ware.  I am not saying this means R1a entered the steppes and adjacent via the eastern extension of Corded Ware but can it be ruled out?   I dont think so.  It is not contradicted by the (very sparse) data points we have so far for R1a.  I would only scratch a line through this option B when there is some evidence that its wrong.  As I have posted before I give virtually no credence to skeletal evidence (which seem a bit more complex than previously thought anyway).         
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2012, 06:09:56 PM »

... if anyone thinks that is improbable or lacks evidence, it is no worse than the very low visibility massive leaps we are expected to believe for R1b.  Also, did a new paper by Anatole not also seem to be pushing towards the idea of R1a entering the steppes from central Europe?
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Jean M
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2012, 06:31:25 PM »

I just have never been happy the way it takes tortured complex models to explain IE in so much of Europe through steppe intruders.

No models were tortured during the making of my text. I guarantee all models safe from torture chez moi. In fact models can have a day off from striking poses, sink into an armchair and read a good book.

Seriously Alan - the spread of IE into Europe is easy. Three words: Secondary Products Revolution. (Plus copper metallurgy.) The details will be fussed over for yonks I dare say. But not everyone is as engrossed by the nitty-gritty of exactly how many people went along route X and how many along route Y as we are. The Big Picture is that the Copper to Bronze Age is the last time that we see a more or less uniform culture across Europe and therefore the most probable time for the spread of a new language, which splits into a language family.

The Iron Age is too late. The Neolithic - even the Late Neolithic - is too early (for linguistic reasons.) It is so simple really.

As for lunatic fringe ideas of where PIE took off from - what a waste of time. We have the tracks in the ground.
Quote
I am not saying this means R1a entered the steppes and adjacent via the eastern extension of Corded Ware but can it be ruled out?  

Yes it can. I have already pointed out that Afanasievo was a colony from the Repin culture at the east end of the steppe that pre-dated Corded Ware by over 700 years. From Afanasievo people entered the Tarim Basin. We have their mummies. They were R1a1a.

Corded Ware springs from Yamnaya, not the other way around. The dates are clear. Yamnaya 3300 BC. Corded Ware 2750 BC. The direction of influence is clear.  It really doesn't matter two hoots if Corded Ware contributed to Sintashta. The origin point was Yamnaya.  
« Last Edit: October 18, 2012, 08:06:14 AM by Jean M » Logged
razyn
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2012, 06:52:14 PM »

No models were tortured during the making of my text.

I for one am going to sleep better, knowing that.  Especially after reading your book, and all.  Anyway -- good one.
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princenuadha
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2012, 07:06:04 PM »

Quote from: Jean M
From Afanasievo people entered the Tarim Basin. We have their mummies. They were R1a1a.

I agree that the tocharians likely came from the Afanasievo culture but we don't know that the tarim mummies were tocharian! They could have been early Sintashta/Andronovo bearers to the area. Look at the stark contrast of West Eurasian ydna and East Eurasian Mtdna. Perhaps these western men migrated quickly before the western women.

I'm working on a thoery that involves this argument. I'll let you know if I manage to get some substance behind it.

BTW, I agree that the steppe and yamnaya were the source of IE. I am not at all certain that r1a1a didn't come from Central-Eastern Central Europe.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2012, 07:15:57 PM by princenuadha » Logged
Jean M
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2012, 07:14:13 PM »

Quote from: Jean M
From Afanasievo people entered the Tarim Basin. We have their mummies. They were R1a1a.
I agree that the tocharians likely came from the Afanasievo culture but we don't know that the tarim mummies were tocharian!

It doesn't make any difference what language they spoke for this particular piece of logic. The focus here is on R1a1a - right? The cultural trail is Repin > Afanasievo > Tarim Basin. At least for these particular mummies. Later other people entered the Tarim Basin from the spread of Andronovo. But not the particular mummies who were tested. It is a complex story. See Romgard 2008.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2012, 07:18:58 PM by Jean M » Logged
princenuadha
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2012, 07:18:57 PM »

Quote
Afanasievo > Tarim Basin (Tarim Mummies)

This is what I question.

I will read.
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Jean M
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2012, 07:22:46 PM »

I am not at all certain that r1a1a didn't come from Central-Eastern Central Europe.

If you mean Poland, that would be a very strange place for it to come from. Bear in mind that R1a had a common ancestor with R1b. The timing suggests that we look for that ancestor in an Ice Age refuge.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2012, 07:25:17 PM by Jean M » Logged
alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2012, 08:47:57 PM »

I just have never been happy the way it takes tortured complex models to explain IE in so much of Europe through steppe intruders.

No models were tortured during the making of my text. I guarantee all models safe from torture chez moi. In fact models can have a day off from striking poses, sink into an armchair and read a good book.

Seriously Alan - the spread of IE into Europe is easy.

The toughest nut in prehistory that has been chewed and fought over for generations is definately not easy!  That is incredible self confidence.  I think there has been a lot of good thinking put into this subject but its very far from intuitive as far as I am concerned.  The only thing I am happy with is that PIE originated in the eastern half of Europe and its fringes no earlier than the late Neolithic.  I think that is very hard to argue against.  I wouldnt feel confident much beyond that in terms of languages or DNA. 

The chain of cultures back from Sintashta (assocaited by some with the Indo-Aryans) through Abashevo to an origin that included a point when late eastern Corded Ware was in the mix was from Anthony himself.  Wiki quotes him in saying The pre-eminent expert on the Abashevo culture, A. Pryakhin, concludeded that it originated from contacts between Fatyanovo / Balanovo and Catacomb / Poltavka peoples in the southern forest-steppe

The Fatyanovo/Balanovo is eastern corded ware. 

I just question if this does not provide a chain of sorts from Corded Ware ultimately through to the Indo-Aryans and their R1a associations. As for Andronovo I have definately seen it interpreted as having roots in Sintashta.  If that was true that would complete some sort of linke all the way from eastern corded ware through Abashevo through Sintashta to Andronovo and Indo-Iranian.  I didnt even realise this until I read into it (including Anthony) recently and to me it does indicate a possible model B where R1a in corded ware filtered into the eastern steppes  through Abashevo.  I wonder if the origin of Corded Ware was in a people beyond the steppes but influenced by them.  It would make sense to me given that the chronology of Corded Ware indicates it did a thrust into Russia counter to the general flow going the other way.

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Jean M
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2012, 05:10:47 AM »

The chain of cultures back from Sintashta (associated by some with the Indo-Aryans) through Abashevo to an origin that included a point when late eastern Corded Ware was in the mix was from Anthony himself.

Yes I know. I've got the book. But it doesn't mean what the European Aryan Wanabees want it to mean. We need to get a grip on where Corded Ware came from. It is not some independent culture that sprang up on the North European Plain from people who had been living there since the Mesolithic. That old idea has crumbled for good in the face of the aDNA showing the LBK to be totally different from the Mesolithic people in the area, and the radiocarbon databases that show a huge gap before the arrival of the TRB. The TRB people were not local. They came from the Balkans. Nor are modern Scandinavians or Poles the direct descendants of the TRB people. Genetically they are different, as shown by the full genome of a TRB farmer. R1a1a appears on the North European Plain with Corded Ware.

« Last Edit: October 17, 2012, 05:16:26 AM by Jean M » Logged
Jean M
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2012, 05:30:46 AM »

The toughest nut in prehistory that has been chewed and fought over for generations is definitely not easy!  That is incredible self confidence.

No it is logic Alan. What I am urging you to do is step back from the detail and look at the Big Picture. We have a set of innovations that spread over Europe. PIE had words for those innovations. So we see a new language family spreading with those innovations. The detail of routes in a sense does not really matter as long as we can see the cultural origin point of the package of innovations, which fits the location of the PIE homeland as deduced by linguists. The logic slams down with a satisfying click. That is what Anthony has demonstrated.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2012, 07:12:03 AM by Jean M » Logged
Jean M
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2012, 05:51:04 AM »

Could I put in a plea here? This is the R1b and Subclades forum. It is not the best place to discuss R1a1a. The best place would be a forum on R1a1a in which experts on it congregate. Anthrogenica is shaping up well. The forum rapidly set up on Molgen to house refugees from the defunct DNA Forums was never actively moderated and has a spam problem I understand. People are now slipping away from it to Anthrogenica.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2012, 09:37:56 AM »

Could I put in a plea here? This is the R1b and Subclades forum. It is not the best place to discuss R1a1a. The best place would be a forum on R1a1a in which experts on it congregate. Anthrogenica is shaping up well. The forum rapidly set up on Molgen to house refugees from the defunct DNA Forums was never actively moderated and has a spam problem I understand. People are now slipping away from it to Anthrogenica.
I just asked Lawrence Mayka in the last week what is the best forum for R1a and he recommended the Genetic Genealogy molgen site.
http://eng.molgen.org/viewforum.php?f=77
There are more posts for R1a under the molgen site. I'll recheck. I see Lawrence posts in both. Since Anthrogenic doesn't have much momentum maybe they should jump over here to World Families R1a and subclades thread.
http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?board=2418.0
From an on-going continuity and support standpoint, I really have to compliment World Families and Terry Barton.  What makes me nervous about the the Molgen's, Anthrogenic's, etc. is their continuity. Let me use a more modern word. I doubt their sustainability. I don't want to see another "dna-forums" crash where all the history is eventually lost or inaccessible.  That is why I like World Families. Perhaps you could invite the folks over there to World Families R1a and Subclades.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2012, 09:40:52 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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Jean M
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2012, 10:15:40 AM »

@ Mike

At the moment the English version of Molgen is still pretty busy, and there certainly has been a lot of activity there on the R1a1a side. But as I say, people have been muttering for some time about the lack of moderation. So Anthrogenica is liable to win out long term. It is jointly owned and one of the aims was to ensure long-term sustainability. The last thing they want is a repeat of the DNA Forums debacle, in which one of the owners lost a lot of data.

Normally I wouldn't dream of advertising one forum from another. It is positively rude. But the reality is that the R1a1a experts are not posting here. I can't imagine what their reaction would be if I invited them to a forum that I don't own and have no stake in and no reason to promote, but I somehow think bewilderment would be uppermost. I'm unlikely to be posting here myself for much longer.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2012, 10:19:11 AM by Jean M » Logged
Terry Barton
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2012, 12:20:17 PM »

I would be happy to see a respected R1a researcher step up as Moderator of the R1a and Subclades Board.  It's not the site, it's the Moderator and involved users that build the useful Forum.

The R1b and Subclades Board came into being through the leadership and guidance of Rich Stevens and the many responsible researchers who post here.  I would be delighted to see the same happen for R1a

Please pass the word, as appropriate.

Terry
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2012, 04:00:20 PM »

... The R1b and Subclades Board came into being through the leadership and guidance of Rich Stevens and the many responsible researchers who post here. ...
Agreed.
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Jean M
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2012, 04:02:58 PM »

Seconded. I came here for rms2.
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2012, 06:51:56 PM »

Ditto :)
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2012, 09:32:32 PM »

The toughest nut in prehistory that has been chewed and fought over for generations is definitely not easy!  That is incredible self confidence.

No it is logic Alan. What I am urging you to do is step back from the detail and look at the Big Picture. We have a set of innovations that spread over Europe. PIE had words for those innovations. So we see a new language family spreading with those innovations. The detail of routes in a sense does not really matter as long as we can see the cultural origin point of the package of innovations, which fits the location of the PIE homeland as deduced by linguists. The logic slams down with a satisfying click. That is what Anthony has demonstrated.


So you are saying all of these people who have been studying this from many angles for generations have had some sort of collective logic bypass and cant see how clearcut and self evident it is?  I wish I had your self confidence!  Anthony has essentially tweaked Mallory.  He is probably broadly in the right ballpark zone for the time and the place of PIE although I dont think you can be as specific as some lingusits try to stretch the evidence to.  Anthony has provided a very convincing explanation of the cultures which likely gave root to the saetem languages.  However, neither really did more than dip a toe into the whole idea of the origins of the centum half of the story beyond some talk of Corded Ware and a very unconvincing attempt to link eastern European groups as proto-Celtic and Germanic.  Basically they brilliantly tell the eastern half of the story c. 2800BC onwards.  However the western part is missing.  My problem with the broad pattern of change view is this broad pattern of changes in parallel over large areas is seen throughout prehistory and often without any requirement or evidence for migration.   Broad vague social change and broad parallel changes in behavour, social structure etc is not clear evidence of migration. It might be but it might not be and it lowers the bar of evidence so low that it become a matter of opinion.  Anyway, I suspect we just wont agree on this one.  Agreement is not compulsary though!     
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2012, 09:33:00 PM »


At the moment the English version of Molgen is still pretty busy, and there certainly has been a lot of activity there on the R1a1a side.

Haha... yeah Molgen is real busy for R1a1a... busy for spam!! And as for insightful comments and debate: a desert (one or two comments a week)! The only time there is some lively intellectual discourse is when you post something Jean and 'stir the pot'.

It is such a shame about Dna-Forums. The discussions there were so free-wheeling and exciting. All the R's (R1b, R1a, R2 etc) were thrown in together so you would get great perspectives from 'outside the box'. Everyone from Dienekes to Polako to Larry Mayka to Klyosov: the whole spectrum commented there! And the great thing was those discussions went back to the beginning. Back to the days of bikini haplotypes and R1b in Spain, I-haplogroup in the Balkans, and R1a in the Ukraine. How nice and simple things were! And you could trace with every little bit of new information how peoples views evolved (or didn't) and how wrong some of us were on the issues (Ms Holly Hindsight!) And how (I think it was Stevo who started that 'idea' that R1b carried indo-european languages into Europe from the East. Ohhh... the flame wars began! Haha... fun times!



But the reality is that the R1a1a experts are not posting here.

And they won't be. Molgen despite its quietness and spam is the de facto home for us (R1a) for the forseeable future. It's tied in nicely with Family Tree (new SNP's and testing), the R1a subclades braintrust, and a strong contingent of Poles, and Russians.
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