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avalon
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« on: October 08, 2012, 08:31:20 AM »

It has probably been discussed before but what is the current thinking about the genetic impact of the Black Death in the 14C?

It was estimated to have killed 25-35 million people in Europe, including a third of the population of England. If we assume that the disease attacks a population in a uniform manner then it would have no impact on the haplogroup frequencies.

However, I would expect a contagious disease to spread more rapidly in densely populated areas such as towns and cities so the Y-DNA  in certain parts of England may have been more affected than others - Lincolnshire and Norfolk were the two most populated counties at this time. London was obviously the biggest town.

There is also the fact that closely related people in a specific geographic area may have carried genes (not necessarily y-dna) that made them more vulnerable or resistent to the Black Death. So by chance, some y-dna haplogroup carriers may have survived whilst others diminished.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2012, 08:34:32 AM by avalon » Logged
Dubhthach
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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2012, 10:24:27 AM »

Well i know in an Irish context it's usually said that it was the Cambro-Norman colony that suffered the most whereas the "Wilde Irishe"(eg. Gaelic Irish) suffered considerably less, no doubt due to lack of urban living. Of course disease such as the plague are always most dangerous in areas of High population density something that the likes of most of Ireland and areas like Wales and Scotland didn't really have in 14th century compared to France and South-Eastern England anyways.
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glentane
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2012, 11:52:56 AM »

Would a combination of Phytophthora blight and avaricious landlordism even things out over the rural/urban divide, in Ireland and Scotland? How could we tell? AFAIK there aren't any name lists.
Serious question, by the way, if a bit O/T.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2012, 11:54:49 AM by glentane » Logged
Jarman
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2012, 03:05:10 PM »

It was estimated to have killed 25-35 million people in Europe, including a third of the population of England. If we assume that the disease attacks a population in a uniform manner then it would have no impact on the haplogroup frequencies.

I expect I'll be challenged on this and I have trouble getting my head around it, but I believe statisticians will claim that if a population is distributed in a bell curve, a reduction of population will cut off the tails of the curve. Thus the rare gets rarer and diversity is reduced.
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avalon
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2012, 03:29:39 PM »

Well i know in an Irish context it's usually said that it was the Cambro-Norman colony that suffered the most whereas the "Wilde Irishe"(eg. Gaelic Irish) suffered considerably less, no doubt due to lack of urban living. Of course disease such as the plague are always most dangerous in areas of High population density something that the likes of most of Ireland and areas like Wales and Scotland didn't really have in 14th century compared to France and South-Eastern England anyways.

That's right. Wales in Medieval times was characterised by isolated farmsteads and small nucleated hamlets whereas England had more villages and towns, so being more urban, England may have suffered greater plague losses.

I am prepared to be proven wrong but I think the Black Death could potentially have caused considerable changes to Y Haplogroup frequencies if it targeted specific geographic areas.



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Dubhthach
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2012, 04:04:00 PM »

Article on History Ireland here about Plague in Ireland:
http://www.historyireland.com/volumes/volume9/issue4/features/?id=113582
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avalon
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2012, 04:15:38 PM »

It was estimated to have killed 25-35 million people in Europe, including a third of the population of England. If we assume that the disease attacks a population in a uniform manner then it would have no impact on the haplogroup frequencies.

I expect I'll be challenged on this and I have trouble getting my head around it, but I believe statisticians will claim that if a population is distributed in a bell curve, a reduction of population will cut off the tails of the curve. Thus the rare gets rarer and diversity is reduced.

But if the plague doesn't discriminate between Y--DNA haplogroups and attacks a population uniformly then the HG frequencies will statistically stay the same.

But hypothetically, what if the plague devasted 14C London killing 40% of the population and for whatever reason, be it poverty, hygiene or genetics, a particular Hg suffered disproportionate losses, this could alter the overall HG frequencies for London and for England wouldn't it?
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2012, 12:16:36 AM »

Well i know in an Irish context it's usually said that it was the Cambro-Norman colony that suffered the most whereas the "Wilde Irishe"(eg. Gaelic Irish) suffered considerably less, no doubt due to lack of urban living. Of course disease such as the plague are always most dangerous in areas of High population density something that the likes of most of Ireland and areas like Wales and Scotland didn't really have in 14th century compared to France and South-Eastern England anyways.

Is there any actual analysis that leads us to conclude that the Plague hit certain peoples harder?

The reason I ask is that my family heritage claims they (we) were especially hard hit. However, we were in a rural area and somehow some of us survived and proliferated.  I don't want to criticize my probable ancestors, but it almost sounds like we were just whining and since we had a pen in our hands, well, the squeaky wheel gets the grease.     The impoverished and illerate.. what happened to them? Was their plight easier or did they just not have the inclination or chance to write it down?

I don't really know, but I wonder about this and I'd like to understand the true evidence for the conventional wisdom.

Wales in Medieval times was characterised by isolated farmsteads and small nucleated hamlets whereas England had more villages and towns, so being more urban, England may have suffered greater plague losses.

I am prepared to be proven wrong but I think the Black Death could potentially have caused considerable changes to Y Haplogroup frequencies if it targeted specific geographic areas.

Can you prove you are right?
« Last Edit: October 09, 2012, 12:19:46 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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Dubhthach
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2012, 04:48:39 AM »

Well i know in an Irish context it's usually said that it was the Cambro-Norman colony that suffered the most whereas the "Wilde Irishe"(eg. Gaelic Irish) suffered considerably less, no doubt due to lack of urban living. Of course disease such as the plague are always most dangerous in areas of High population density something that the likes of most of Ireland and areas like Wales and Scotland didn't really have in 14th century compared to France and South-Eastern England anyways.

Is there any actual analysis that leads us to conclude that the Plague hit certain peoples harder?

The reason I ask is that my family heritage claims they (we) were especially hard hit. However, we were in a rural area and somehow some of us survived and proliferated.  I don't want to criticize my probable ancestors, but it almost sounds like we were just whining and since we had a pen in our hands, well, the squeaky wheel gets the grease.     The impoverished and illerate.. what happened to them? Was their plight easier or did they just not have the inclination or chance to write it down?


Your ancestry puts you in Kilkenny/Waterford right Mike? This was among the most densely "settled" part of the Cambro-Norman colony. It also suffered one of the highest demographic losses during the Black Death. Here's some extracts from the writings of John Clyn a friar in Kilkenny:

Quote
In this year and in the months of September and October bishops and prelates, men of church and of religion magnates and others and commonly all persons of both sexes gathered from all sides of diverse parts of Ireland, to the pilgrimage and the wading in the waters of St Moling in crowds and in multitudes so you might see many thousands of men assembling at the same place for many days. Some came from feelings of devotion other (the majority) from fear of plague the then prevailed beyond measure and that first began near Dublin at Howth and Drogheda.

...

It was not heard of from the beginning of the world for so many men to have died from plague, famine and other infirmities in such a time….The disease stripped vills, cities, castles and town of inhabitants of men, so that scarcely anyone would be able to live in them. The Plague was so contagious that those touching the dead or even the sick were immediately infected and died and the one confessing and confessor were together led to the grave……For many died from carbuncles and from ulcers and pustules that could be seen on shines and under the armpits some died as if in a frenzy from pain of the head and others spitting blood…………….

These cities of Dublin and Drogheda were almost destroyed and wasted of inhabitants and men so that in Dublin alone from the beginning of August right up to Christmas 14,000 men died.

“There’s scarcely a house in which only one died but commonly man and wife with their children and family going one way namely to crossing to death. Now I Friar John Clyn of the orders of Minors and convent of Kilkenny, have written in this book these noteworthy deeds that happened in my time, that I know by faithful eye witness or by worthy reliable report. And lest these notable records should be lost and the whole world as it were in a bad situation among the dead excepting death when it should come I have brought together in writing, just as I have truthfully heard and examined. And Lest the writing should perish with the writer and the work fail together with the worker, I am leaving parchment for the work to continue if by chance, in the future a man should remain surviving and anyone of the race of Adam should be able to escape this plague and live to continue this work”

Interesting article here on the "Crisis of the 14th century" for the "Lordship of Ireland" which contributed heavily to the "Gaelic Resurgence" of the late 14th and 15th centuries
Famine, War and Plague: In Search of a Medieval Crisis.
http://irishhistorypodcast.ie/2012/07/04/famine-war-and-plague-in-search-of-a-medieval-crisis/

Interesting extract in the following book  (A History of Bubonic Plague in the British Isles, University of Cambridge Press 1970) -- it details an account from the 17th century looking back to effects of Plague 300 years before

Quote
'it made great havoc of the Englishman in those Parts; especially about the Sea-Coasts: But as for those who were true Irishmen born, and dwelt in the hilly Countries, it scare just saluted them: So that they suffered but little or no loss thereby.'

http://books.google.ie/books?id=ATOlhaEvN3wC&lpg=PA435&ots=C_BmFWYs5I&dq=plague%20ireland&pg=PA48#v=onepage&q&f=false

-Paul
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rms2
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2012, 07:35:08 AM »

I noticed years ago that fleas don't bite me. Mosquitoes love me, but fleas don't. I can be sitting next to someone who is getting bit by fleas and never get bitten myself.

Since the Bubonic Plague was spread by flea bites, I have occasionally wondered if I didn't have some ancestors who survived in part because they didn't taste good to fleas.

Silly, I guess, but my y-dna 3rd great grandfather died of Yellow Fever, and that is transmitted by mosquitoes.
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OConnor
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2012, 09:14:51 AM »

I had wondered how many Scandinavians went to colonize Normandy and surrounding areas in France in the centuries before the plague of the mid 1300's?
Was there much of a people drain?

I am thinking that the real estate and climate in France was much more desireable than Norway and other parts of Scandinavia. Perhaps attracting many.

The plague killed perhaps 1/3 of the people in places like Norway.
Could these 2 happenings have altered the diversity of R1b types in Scandinavia that we see today?
« Last Edit: October 09, 2012, 09:21:08 AM by OConnor » Logged

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Castlebob
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2012, 09:45:06 AM »



That's right. Wales in Medieval times was characterised by isolated farmsteads and small nucleated hamlets whereas England had more villages and towns, so being more urban, England may have suffered greater plague losses.

I am prepared to be proven wrong but I think the Black Death could potentially have caused considerable changes to Y Haplogroup frequencies if it targeted specific geographic areas.


I know that the Black Death, plus other minor plagues , crop failures & floods saw the Anglo-Scottish Border ravaged. It created a population vacuum, later filled by a  marriage between a Cumbrian Dacre noble & a Scottish Douglas widow, that led to some Cumbrians moving north of the Border.
I wonder if old Britons were more vulnerable to a disease that  came from further east? I know that the Bushmen & Hottentots in South Africa died in numbers when European sailors from Britain & Holland came into contact with them. I gather the common cold was a major cause of health problems for the native tribes.
It'll be quite sad if many of the ancient peoples were eradicated.
Bob
« Last Edit: October 09, 2012, 09:46:03 AM by Castlebob » Logged

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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2012, 01:56:52 PM »

Well i know in an Irish context it's usually said that it was the Cambro-Norman colony that suffered the most whereas the "Wilde Irishe"(eg. Gaelic Irish) suffered considerably less, no doubt due to lack of urban living. Of course disease such as the plague are always most dangerous in areas of High population density something that the likes of most of Ireland and areas like Wales and Scotland didn't really have in 14th century compared to France and South-Eastern England anyways.

Is there any actual analysis that leads us to conclude that the Plague hit certain peoples harder?

The reason I ask is that my family heritage claims they (we) were especially hard hit. However, we were in a rural area and somehow some of us survived and proliferated.  I don't want to criticize my probable ancestors, but it almost sounds like we were just whining and since we had a pen in our hands, well, the squeaky wheel gets the grease.     The impoverished and illerate.. what happened to them? Was their plight easier or did they just not have the inclination or chance to write it down?


Your ancestry puts you in Kilkenny/Waterford right Mike? This was among the most densely "settled" part of the Cambro-Norman colony. It also suffered one of the highest demographic losses during the Black Death. Here's some extracts from the writings of John Clyn a friar in Kilkenny:

Quote
In this year and in the months of September and October bishops and prelates, men of church and of religion magnates and others and commonly all persons of both sexes gathered from all sides of diverse parts of Ireland, to the pilgrimage and the wading in the waters of St Moling in crowds and in multitudes so you might see many thousands of men assembling at the same place for many days. Some came from feelings of devotion other (the majority) from fear of plague the then prevailed beyond measure and that first began near Dublin at Howth and Drogheda.

...

It was not heard of from the beginning of the world for so many men to have died from plague, famine and other infirmities in such a time….The disease stripped vills, cities, castles and town of inhabitants of men, so that scarcely anyone would be able to live in them. The Plague was so contagious that those touching the dead or even the sick were immediately infected and died and the one confessing and confessor were together led to the grave……For many died from carbuncles and from ulcers and pustules that could be seen on shines and under the armpits some died as if in a frenzy from pain of the head and others spitting blood…………….

These cities of Dublin and Drogheda were almost destroyed and wasted of inhabitants and men so that in Dublin alone from the beginning of August right up to Christmas 14,000 men died.

“There’s scarcely a house in which only one died but commonly man and wife with their children and family going one way namely to crossing to death. Now I Friar John Clyn of the orders of Minors and convent of Kilkenny, have written in this book these noteworthy deeds that happened in my time, that I know by faithful eye witness or by worthy reliable report. And lest these notable records should be lost and the whole world as it were in a bad situation among the dead excepting death when it should come I have brought together in writing, just as I have truthfully heard and examined. And Lest the writing should perish with the writer and the work fail together with the worker, I am leaving parchment for the work to continue if by chance, in the future a man should remain surviving and anyone of the race of Adam should be able to escape this plague and live to continue this work”

Interesting article here on the "Crisis of the 14th century" for the "Lordship of Ireland" which contributed heavily to the "Gaelic Resurgence" of the late 14th and 15th centuries
Famine, War and Plague: In Search of a Medieval Crisis.
http://irishhistorypodcast.ie/2012/07/04/famine-war-and-plague-in-search-of-a-medieval-crisis/

Interesting extract in the following book  (A History of Bubonic Plague in the British Isles, University of Cambridge Press 1970) -- it details an account from the 17th century looking back to effects of Plague 300 years before

Quote
'it made great havoc of the Englishman in those Parts; especially about the Sea-Coasts: But as for those who were true Irishmen born, and dwelt in the hilly Countries, it scare just saluted them: So that they suffered but little or no loss thereby.'

http://books.google.ie/books?id=ATOlhaEvN3wC&lpg=PA435&ots=C_BmFWYs5I&dq=plague%20ireland&pg=PA48#v=onepage&q&f=false

-Paul
(DF41+)

Yes, my MDKA is from the Ballinteskin area of Co. Kilkenny. At the time of the Plague, his family was supposedly living at Castlehale, our ancestral home. This is only 2 km north of Ballinteskin so I think we have the right place. It's just west of Knocktopher. It stood on the northern edge of the mountain land, anciently known as the Walsh Mountains, with a wide outlook across the central plain of County Kilkenny.
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/Walsh_Mountains_of_Kilkenny_Map.gif

I don't know about the density of the settlements but this land is rural. It's about 25 km to the City of Kilkenny and about 35 km to the City of Waterford.  Even though this is rural, would it be considered densely settled? Maybe they went into town too much.

Perhaps their location was a saving grace. They say they were hit hard by the Plague. I'm sure it felt like it, but maybe they came out okay relative to others, though. They held their land and seemed to get along fine until Cromwell came along. That was a buzz saw.


« Last Edit: October 09, 2012, 05:03:27 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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avalon
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2012, 03:45:14 PM »

Well i know in an Irish context it's usually said that it was the Cambro-Norman colony that suffered the most whereas the "Wilde Irishe"(eg. Gaelic Irish) suffered considerably less, no doubt due to lack of urban living. Of course disease such as the plague are always most dangerous in areas of High population density something that the likes of most of Ireland and areas like Wales and Scotland didn't really have in 14th century compared to France and South-Eastern England anyways.

Is there any actual analysis that leads us to conclude that the Plague hit certain peoples harder?

The reason I ask is that my family heritage claims they (we) were especially hard hit. However, we were in a rural area and somehow some of us survived and proliferated.  I don't want to criticize my probable ancestors, but it almost sounds like we were just whining and since we had a pen in our hands, well, the squeaky wheel gets the grease.     The impoverished and illerate.. what happened to them? Was their plight easier or did they just not have the inclination or chance to write it down?

I don't really know, but I wonder about this and I'd like to understand the true evidence for the conventional wisdom.

Wales in Medieval times was characterised by isolated farmsteads and small nucleated hamlets whereas England had more villages and towns, so being more urban, England may have suffered greater plague losses.

I am prepared to be proven wrong but I think the Black Death could potentially have caused considerable changes to Y Haplogroup frequencies if it targeted specific geographic areas.

Can you prove you are right?

I must admit I am only speculating so no I don't have any analysis.

It seems logical though that it might hit urban areas harder and I have heard that England was more affected than Wales according to a BBC documentary.

Hypothetically though it could have hit a certain haplogroup harder if its members were more vulnerable to the plague or if they happened to live in a town that was very badly hit. I am surpised this hasn't been studied in more detail given that a third of the population died.
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A.D.
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« Reply #14 on: October 10, 2012, 11:35:42 AM »

A guy O'Brian in the U.S. was doing an investergation into why a heamophiliac treated with HIV infected blood did not get AIDS. He traced his ancestry back to Evasham(?) in England. This small town had noticably fewer deaths in the Black Death than surrounding areas and outsiders coming into Evaham had a higher % of deaths.
This is appaerantly down to a gene that does not allow viruses to connect to human cells. Don't know anything about the hg's involved but I think Evasham is in East Anglia or near, so maybe U-106 ?   
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2012, 12:26:31 PM »

I noticed years ago that fleas don't bite me. Mosquitoes love me, but fleas don't. I can be sitting next to someone who is getting bit by fleas and never get bitten myself.

Since the Bubonic Plague was spread by flea bites, I have occasionally wondered if I didn't have some ancestors who survived in part because they didn't taste good to fleas.

Silly, I guess, but my y-dna 3rd great grandfather died of Yellow Fever, and that is transmitted by mosquitoes.

I have heard blood groups effect things like this.  I have noticed that two people I know who are A negative are extremely attractive to midges and all sorts of insects.  Plain old O people seem to be left more alone. 
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Castlebob
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« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2012, 02:23:40 PM »

A guy O'Brian in the U.S. was doing an investergation into why a heamophiliac treated with HIV infected blood did not get AIDS. He traced his ancestry back to Evasham(?) in England. This small town had noticably fewer deaths in the Black Death than surrounding areas and outsiders coming into Evaham had a higher % of deaths.
This is appaerantly down to a gene that does not allow viruses to connect to human cells. Don't know anything about the hg's involved but I think Evasham is in East Anglia or near, so maybe U-106 ?   
Evesham is in Worcestershire, more on the western edge of England.
Cheers,
Bob
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