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Author Topic: About the origin of hg. R again  (Read 7529 times)
Jdean
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« Reply #75 on: August 06, 2012, 08:20:33 PM »

Don't you think there is a paradox in giving this estimate [4000-8000] 4000@50%, considering we have some hobbyists claiming how accurate mutation modals/clocks are?
That's a lot of wiggle room! That is a big enough hole to drive a Mack Truck through.
As with any estimator, there are two issues:  one is precision and one is accuracy.

With either STRs or SNPs, precision is strictly dependent on the sum of mutation rates of the markers involved.

With only 37 or 67 markers, the 95% confidence interval is indeed very wide on a TMRC estimate.  That lack of precision doesn't mean the estimate is not accurate.


You have very good knowledge, you know the outline of the y-tree,you also have perhaps 1000's STR's data[37/67/111] and SNP data on many populations including R1b, you have computers for calculating and simulating theoretical mutation rates, you have extremely bright mathematicians to create fool proof models. Everything I concede to you, everything I put in your favor, every tool I give to you.

Rhetorical question??

 With what degree of accuracy/confidence level[50%-95%] would you be able to give the 12/37/67/111 STR's of the two recent samples found in Kromsdorf Germany[(ca. 2,800–2,000 BC]?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajpa.22074/abstract

Does that data exist ?
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vineviz
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« Reply #76 on: August 06, 2012, 09:19:21 PM »

Don't you think there is a paradox in giving this estimate [4000-8000] 4000@50%, considering we have some hobbyists claiming how accurate mutation modals/clocks are?
That's a lot of wiggle room! That is a big enough hole to drive a Mack Truck through.
As with any estimator, there are two issues:  one is precision and one is accuracy.

With either STRs or SNPs, precision is strictly dependent on the sum of mutation rates of the markers involved.

With only 37 or 67 markers, the 95% confidence interval is indeed very wide on a TMRC estimate.  That lack of precision doesn't mean the estimate is not accurate.


You have very good knowledge, you know the outline of the y-tree,you also have perhaps 1000's STR's data[37/67/111] and SNP data on many populations including R1b, you have computers for calculating and simulating theoretical mutation rates, you have extremely bright mathematicians to create fool proof models. Everything I concede to you, everything I put in your favor, every tool I give to you.

Rhetorical question??

 With what degree of accuracy/confidence level[50%-95%] would you be able to give the 12/37/67/111 STR's of the two recent samples found in Kromsdorf Germany[(ca. 2,800–2,000 BC]?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajpa.22074/abstract

The linked paper does not include any STRs that I can find.
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vineviz
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« Reply #77 on: August 06, 2012, 09:21:23 PM »

With what degree of accuracy/confidence level[50%-95%] .  . . .
By the way, confidence intervals are measures of precision not accuracy.
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acekon
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« Reply #78 on: August 06, 2012, 10:52:59 PM »

With what degree of accuracy/confidence level[50%-95%] .  . . .
By the way, confidence intervals are measures of precision not accuracy.

Everything I give to you; everything!

Will make it  more easy.

Again, only rhetorical.

You are specialist in [Ht-35]; in R1b you have the respect of many very intelligent ones,and it is now, 2012, current, not 4500 years in the past.

YSearch.org. user ID is 99SC2, my number. from, Silesia. I match first 12 from

1}Northern Germany
2}Denmark.

 Can you predict predict the last 25 sequence,from my match, in Northern Germany, without looking for it on YSearch?

Again only rhetorical.

If you do not like this example,  you choose any study of your liking, in progress, the information has not been released, and prove your confidence, without doubt?




« Last Edit: August 06, 2012, 10:55:33 PM by acekon » Logged

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vineviz
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« Reply #79 on: August 06, 2012, 11:07:50 PM »

If you do not like this example,  you choose any study of your liking, in progress, the information has not been released, and prove your confidence, without doubt?
I'm sorry, but I can't figure out what you are asking?  Are you asking me to compute the genetic distance between two haplotypes I can't see?
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acekon
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« Reply #80 on: August 08, 2012, 08:36:52 AM »

If you do not like this example,  you choose any study of your liking, in progress, the information has not been released, and prove your confidence, without doubt?
I'm sorry, but I can't figure out what you are asking?  Are you asking me to compute the genetic distance between two haplotypes I can't see?


Marker    DYS393/12_DYS390/24_    DYS19**/14_    DYS391/10_DYS385/11-14_

DYS426/12_DYS388/12_    DYS439/11_DYS389I/14_   DYS392/13_DYS389II***/31


Predicted 12 STR Marker Key, Kromsdorf Germany [ca. 2,800–2,000 BC]

Sample #1[  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  ]
Sample#2 [  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  ]

 Predicted 1-37 STR Marker Key, sample X, 2012. Northern Germany

[99SC2]  12_24_14_10_11_14_12_12_11_14_13_31
[    X   ]   12_24_14_10_11_14_12_12_11_14_13_31_ -_ - _ - _ - _ - _.....


STR notation key codes for map, instead of snp and letter codes

e.g/ R-M269=Marker DYS393/12_DYS390/24_ DYS19**/14......


http://vizachero.com/R1b1/R-Map.png



« Last Edit: August 08, 2012, 08:38:58 AM by acekon » Logged

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vineviz
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« Reply #81 on: August 08, 2012, 09:41:14 AM »

If you do not like this example,  you choose any study of your liking, in progress, the information has not been released, and prove your confidence, without doubt?
I'm sorry, but I can't figure out what you are asking?  Are you asking me to compute the genetic distance between two haplotypes I can't see?


Marker    DYS393/12_DYS390/24_    DYS19**/14_    DYS391/10_DYS385/11-14_

DYS426/12_DYS388/12_    DYS439/11_DYS389I/14_   DYS392/13_DYS389II***/31


Predicted 12 STR Marker Key, Kromsdorf Germany [ca. 2,800–2,000 BC]

Sample #1[  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  ]
Sample#2 [  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  _  ]

 Predicted 1-37 STR Marker Key, sample X, 2012. Northern Germany

[99SC2]  12_24_14_10_11_14_12_12_11_14_13_31
[    X   ]   12_24_14_10_11_14_12_12_11_14_13_31_ -_ - _ - _ - _ - _.....


STR notation key codes for map, instead of snp and letter codes

e.g/ R-M269=Marker DYS393/12_DYS390/24_ DYS19**/14......


http://vizachero.com/R1b1/R-Map.png





What is the question?
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #82 on: August 08, 2012, 10:45:57 AM »

What is the question?

The questions are many:
1)   that these two haplotypes could be taken for close relatives, and are two people lived at 4/5000 years apart
2)   that they could be really linked, i.e. Acekon the descendant of the Kromsdorf man, and their values be these at 4/5000 years apart
3)   that they may coincide for convergent mutations, but then the times of these haplotypes are longer and R-L23 more ancient than you think
4)   that your map, founded upon all these assumptions, is worth anything
5)   etc etc.
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Maliclavelli


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« Reply #83 on: August 08, 2012, 11:54:05 AM »

You, Acekon, have 13 differences with Neuberger (whom I put on ySearch from SMGF) out of 34 tested markers:

DYS458 14/16
DYS449 29/33
DYS464b 16/15
DYS464c 18/16
DYS464d 18/19
DYS460 11/10
H4 11/10
DYS456 15/16

What does mean this? That the markers which have the same values coincide from so long? Not, probably that they coincide for convergent mutations, then the distance between you and Neuberger is much more than the 13 differences.

You should reconstruct your previous values and those of Neuberger step by step in the past, and probably you would see that your MRCA is very far in the time.
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Maliclavelli


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vineviz
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« Reply #84 on: August 08, 2012, 12:13:48 PM »



The questions are many:
1)   that these two haplotypes could be taken for close relatives, and are two people lived at 4/5000 years apart

No reasonable person could be surprised or baffled that a 12/12 match is possible.  Indeed, most of us have this kind of low-resolution match.
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acekon
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« Reply #85 on: August 08, 2012, 12:30:23 PM »



The questions are many:
1)   that these two haplotypes could be taken for close relatives, and are two people lived at 4/5000 years apart

No reasonable person could be surprised or baffled that a 12/12 match is possible.  Indeed, most of us have this kind of low-resolution match.

This is why we kindly ask for your 37 STR key code for your map.
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acekon
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« Reply #86 on: August 08, 2012, 12:40:10 PM »

You, Acekon, have 13 differences with Neuberger (whom I put on ySearch from SMGF) out of 34 tested markers:

DYS458 14/16
DYS449 29/33
DYS464b 16/15
DYS464c 18/16
DYS464d 18/19
DYS460 11/10
H4 11/10
DYS456 15/16

What does mean this? That the markers which have the same values coincide from so long? Not, probably that they coincide for convergent mutations, then the distance between you and Neuberger is much more than the 13 differences.

You should reconstruct your previous values and those of Neuberger step by step in the past, and probably you would see that your MRCA is very far in the time.


Thank you Maliclavelli. But it is Callsen and Mueller[not listed] that I match at 12 "low" resolution markers[me@L150/Ht-35 project_ Callsen@R1b1a2a1a1b4 ]. At high resolution Callsen are very far apart [15/16].So who is Kormsdorf sample closer eg. [U98VT]? We do not know, perhaps if V.V. gives us the STR key codes for his map it might help?Or a 37 STR guesstimate of Kormsdorf  sample #1 & #2? Is this unreasonable?
   
   
FTDNA Tip note Y-DNA37  Peter Callsen, b. 1776 and d. 1845 R1b1a2a1a1b4
L21    2/29/2012.
   
« Last Edit: August 08, 2012, 01:04:14 PM by acekon » Logged

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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #87 on: August 08, 2012, 01:14:40 PM »

FTDNA Tip note Y-DNA37  Peter Callsen, b. 1776 and d. 1845 R1b1a2a1a1b4
L21    2/29/2012.


But you cannot compare yourself with Callsen, who is R-L21, whereas Neuberger is certainly R-L150 (like you and me): he has DYS461=11. Then you can compare with him, but the match on 12 markers is illusory, like would be illusory if Kromsdorf man would have the same 12 values: we know he lived 5800 years ago, but it may happen. We have seen that the ancient DNA of 7000 years ago gets almost the same values of to-day on the first 12 markers, but because one of my rules is that there is a "convergence to the modal as time passes", except when some mutations went for the tangent, what has happened between you and Neuberger: some values mutate around the modal, others go for the tangent.
But what you should pay attention, I think, is DYS464, which maintains a configuration also for thousands of years. One could think that, if we start from a "modal" 14 15 16 18, you have had only a mutation (DYS464d from 18 to 19), what has happened in the East European R-L150, whereas we Western ones have had DYS464d from 18 to 17: my 14 14 16 17 would presuppose also another mutation in DYS464b from 15 to 14. But ptobably the thing isn't linear. Also these markers have had mutations around the modal or for the tangent, and to reconstruct the passages would need, as I have said, to go step by step.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2012, 01:17:46 PM by Maliclavelli » Logged

Maliclavelli


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OConnor
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« Reply #88 on: August 08, 2012, 01:33:06 PM »

how uncommon is 393=12 in western European R1b subclades ?

I have been cursed with this 393=12 while being L21/DF13+

Ido have one 36/37 match with a Murphy.
I think I may be connected to the Murphy's
listed in the Murphy project. listed as "Haplotype C"
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/MURPHY%20DNA-All%20Spellings/default.aspx?section=yresults

393=12 and 464=15 15 16 16.
How many common str's does it take to be considered a cluster?

« Last Edit: August 08, 2012, 01:36:18 PM by OConnor » Logged

R1b1a2a1a1b4


R-DF13**(L21>DF13)
M42+, M45+, M526+, M74+, M89+, M9+, M94+, P108+, P128+, P131+, P132+, P133+, P134+, P135+, P136+, P138+, P139+, P14+, P140+, P141+, P143+, P145+, P146+, P148+, P149+, P151+, P157+, P158+, P159+, P160+, P161+, P163+, P166+, P187+, P207+, P224+, P226+, P228+, P229+, P230+, P231+, P232+, P233+, P234+, P235+, P236+, P237+, P238+, P239+, P242+, P243+, P244+, P245+, P280+, P281+, P282+, P283+, P284+, P285+, P286+, P294+, P295+, P297+, P305+, P310+, P311+, P312+, P316+, M173+, M269+, M343+, P312+, L21+, DF13+, M207+, P25+, L11+, L138+, L141+, L15+, L150+, L16+, L23+, L51+, L52+, M168+, M173+, M207+, M213+, M269+, M294+, M299+, M306+, M343+, P69+, P9.1+, P97+, PK1+, SRY10831.1+, L21+, L226-, M37-, M222-, L96-, L193-, L144-, P66-, SRY2627-, M222-, DF49-, L371-, DF41-, L513-, L555-, L1335-, L1406-, Z251-, L526-, L130-, L144-, L159.2-, L192.1-, L193-, L195-, L96-, DF21-, Z255-, DF23-, DF1-, Z253-, M37-, M65-, M73-, M18-, M126-, M153-, M160-, P66-

12 24 14 10 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 18


vineviz
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« Reply #89 on: August 08, 2012, 01:41:06 PM »

This is why we kindly ask for your 37 STR key code for your map.
I don't know what you mean by "key code".

The map is an illustration of the probable expansion path of R-M343.  There is no "code".
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #90 on: August 08, 2012, 01:46:35 PM »

393=12 and 464=15 15 16 16.
How many common str's does it take to be considered a cluster?
For what I have said before I think that DYS393=12 and DYS464= 15 15 16 16 are a clade within R-L21.
I'll study your case.
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Maliclavelli


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acekon
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« Reply #91 on: August 08, 2012, 01:50:17 PM »

how uncommon is 393=12 in western European R1b subclades ?

I have been cursed with this 393=12 while being L21/DF13+

Ido have one 36/37 match with a Murphy.
I think I may be connected to the Murphy's
listed in the Murphy project. listed as "Haplotype C"
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/MURPHY%20DNA-All%20Spellings/default.aspx?section=yresults

393=12 and 464=15 15 16 16.
How many common str's does it take to be considered a cluster?



Is it by co-incidence Gilpin and Strong from around Connaught, also have the 393-12 ht-35 variant? What about U98VT? It also has a 12, does Kromsdorf sample have a 12 or 13?
« Last Edit: August 08, 2012, 02:05:00 PM by acekon » Logged

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acekon
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« Reply #92 on: August 08, 2012, 01:58:36 PM »

This is why we kindly ask for your 37 STR key code for your map.
I don't know what you mean by "key code".

The map is an illustration of the probable expansion path of R-M343.  There is no "code".

Signature.

 When you put R-M269  and other branches of R,[combination of letters and snp's] on your map you can translate that into a common 37 STR signature carried by most?

The "Mean Average" signature of each label. For example would you use 393-12 or 393-13 for the R-M269 label on your map, and so on for 37 markers, instead of using very broad snp's or letters.

« Last Edit: August 08, 2012, 02:02:41 PM by acekon » Logged

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« Reply #93 on: August 08, 2012, 02:36:00 PM »


 I am 393-12 and 464 15-15-18-18 and L21-DF21-DF5.

My ysearch number is 7D6QQ.

What does this mean in terms of this thread?
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Seamas
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« Reply #94 on: August 08, 2012, 03:47:51 PM »

Selbie, I have already spoken about your haoplotype. Your DYS464= 15 15 18 18 should be explained starting by the modal of R-L21, which seemed to be 15 15 17 17. Then you would have had DYS464c from 17 to 18 and also DYS464d from 17 to 18, but you know that I doubt of the modal. 15 15 18 18 is found also in other haplotypes/haplogroups, but evidently it has a different meaning starting they from a different “modal”.
Anyway your haplotype seems particular amongst the R-L21 and also your DYS464 could derive from a different, more ancient modal as to the main R-L21 haplotypes.
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Maliclavelli


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« Reply #95 on: August 08, 2012, 04:39:41 PM »

393=12 and 464=15 15 16 16.
How many common str's does it take to be considered a cluster?
For what I have said before I think that DYS393=12 and DYS464= 15 15 16 16 are a clade within R-L21.
I'll study your case.
O’Connor, not only I think that you are of the clade of the Murphys, but also that with 103639 you have a very close relatedness, having out of 37 markers only 1 mutation in DYS576, MR of 0,011087, i.e very high.
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Maliclavelli


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OConnor
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« Reply #96 on: August 08, 2012, 06:01:24 PM »

I should have added that a second cousin on mine is also 36/37 with me, and listed on y-search 67K7J.(kit 72257) (We are separated by 3 generations)
Thank-you for taking some time and having a look Maliclavelli.



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R1b1a2a1a1b4


R-DF13**(L21>DF13)
M42+, M45+, M526+, M74+, M89+, M9+, M94+, P108+, P128+, P131+, P132+, P133+, P134+, P135+, P136+, P138+, P139+, P14+, P140+, P141+, P143+, P145+, P146+, P148+, P149+, P151+, P157+, P158+, P159+, P160+, P161+, P163+, P166+, P187+, P207+, P224+, P226+, P228+, P229+, P230+, P231+, P232+, P233+, P234+, P235+, P236+, P237+, P238+, P239+, P242+, P243+, P244+, P245+, P280+, P281+, P282+, P283+, P284+, P285+, P286+, P294+, P295+, P297+, P305+, P310+, P311+, P312+, P316+, M173+, M269+, M343+, P312+, L21+, DF13+, M207+, P25+, L11+, L138+, L141+, L15+, L150+, L16+, L23+, L51+, L52+, M168+, M173+, M207+, M213+, M269+, M294+, M299+, M306+, M343+, P69+, P9.1+, P97+, PK1+, SRY10831.1+, L21+, L226-, M37-, M222-, L96-, L193-, L144-, P66-, SRY2627-, M222-, DF49-, L371-, DF41-, L513-, L555-, L1335-, L1406-, Z251-, L526-, L130-, L144-, L159.2-, L192.1-, L193-, L195-, L96-, DF21-, Z255-, DF23-, DF1-, Z253-, M37-, M65-, M73-, M18-, M126-, M153-, M160-, P66-

12 24 14 10 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 18


vineviz
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« Reply #97 on: August 08, 2012, 06:41:03 PM »


 When you put R-M269  and other branches of R,[combination of letters and snp's] on your map you can translate that into a common 37 STR signature carried by most?
Yes, I suppose you could compute a modal haplotype for the extant members of each clade on the map.  But I don't think it would serve any relevant purpose to do so.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2012, 08:35:34 PM by vineviz » Logged
vineviz
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« Reply #98 on: August 08, 2012, 06:44:55 PM »

how uncommon is 393=12 in western European R1b subclades ?
Not very.  About 5-6% of western European R1b (e.g. R-U106 and R-P312) has DYS393=12.

http://www.kerchner.com/r1bproject/histograms/pages/000D393.htm
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #99 on: August 08, 2012, 09:22:32 PM »

how uncommon is 393=12 in western European R1b subclades ?
Not very.  About 5-6% of western European R1b (e.g. R-U106 and R-P312) has DYS393=12.

But you should ask:
1)   how many R-L21 are DYS393= 12?
2)    “                  “          DYS391= 10?
3)     “                  “         DYS464= 15 15 16 16?
4)     “                   “        H4= 10?
5)     “                 “          from DYS607 to CDYb 15 18 17 38 38?

The percentage from 5/6% would fall to “a few people of the same descent”.
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Maliclavelli


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MtDNA: K1a1b1e

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