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Author Topic: About the origin of hg. R again  (Read 7726 times)
Maliclavelli
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« Reply #50 on: July 22, 2012, 01:04:22 PM »

A few years ago before discovery of R-L23 researchers referred to another classification called ht35.  It was found that within R1b the DYS393=12 was a very good proxy for this haplogroup and it still is for R-L23*.  To confirm Dieneke's idea that ht35 (now R-L23*) had a strong correlation to J2 in Europe, Vincent Vizzaccaro created maps for J2 and for DYS393=12.  These were on the unfortunately lost DNA-Forums; I don't know where his J2 map could be found but here is the DYS393=12 map: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dsGYkxd7z_E/Rb0OyyLLk5I/AAAAAAAAAB4/x0GGzLHjt6M/s1600-h/dys393%3D12_low.png  it is now part of his Italy DNA Project available at: http://italydna.blogspot.com/2007/01/r1b-in-italy.html

The point I'm trying to address here is that there does appear to be a correlation between J2 and R-L23* in southeast Europe and southern Italy.  Since I am totally lacking in J2 knowledge, I would be interested in ideas of when J2 entered these areas to get an idea of when this wave of R-L23* possibly entered these same areas.
I am the theorist of the Italian Refugium, above all of hg. R1b1 and subclades, what should I say? That hg. R1b1 expanded from Italy, and make you note that this superimposition happens just in Italy and not elsewhere, then it could be due to two different waves of migration (one from West: hg. R, and one from South-East: hg. J2) and the fact of its presence in altitude more than in the low land due to the pastoral society that we know was present almost in the 1st Millennium BC. We know that the founders of Rome were above all shepherds and all these Italian peoples descend from the Apennine culture.
It was of course a surprise for me what we knew from the 1000 Genomes Project, that you know tested in Italy only Tuscans, and they resulted 50% of hg. R but a 30% of hg. J, above all J2. I don’t know if this is the percentage of Tuscan gene pool, but 30% is very surprising, and I demonstrated in a post of mine that there were present practically all the subclades, lacking only a few, understandable given the minimum number of the tested people. And for this I thought that Tuscany (and Italy) has had something to do also with the origin of hg. J beside hg. R.
The Matese Region, where it seems, by the map posted by Acekon, that there is the highest percentage of J2 in Italy, gets many interesting haplotypes (for what I know) of J1 and E, which we don’t know if from recent (Roman Empire) immigration or present from very ancient times, so that I consider it a very conservative region of Italy.
But I say this for saying that our analysis needs not a general and ideological discussion but the exam of single cases, what I am trying to do also with many posts of mine about hg. E in Italy, my mtDNA K1a1b1e and many other analyses I have done also on this forum.
Finally I’d want to say to Jarman that I am R-L23/L150+ and I am following my origin (which brings me to a link with some samples in Modena Province published by Ferri), but my haplotype is rarer in Italy than that of my cousin Giorgio Tognarelli (R-L23/L150+ he too) which finds at least 100 similar Western European haplotypes in FTDNA.
I think that General Theories should spring from many single cases resolved, and it is what I am doing from many years.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2012, 01:49:20 PM by Maliclavelli » Logged

Maliclavelli


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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #51 on: July 22, 2012, 02:15:48 PM »

What are the latest calculations of the age of M269 'all' and also L23*?
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acekon
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« Reply #52 on: July 22, 2012, 03:32:30 PM »

Perhaps J2 in Etrusci came from Canaanites/Phoenicians in Levant?

Etruscans- 50% R1b and 30%J[J2?]-Elevated R1b and non Semitic language.
Canaan-Lebanon, and the western parts of Jordan and Syria
Pyrgi- ancient Etrusci port in Latium, central Italy

Elevated numbers of J2 in Levant, (Northwest Semitic, Canaan/Phoenician)
1] Lebanon       N951    29.4%    El-Sibai et al. (2009)
2] Syria    Syria    N554    20.8%    El-Sibai et al. (2009)
3] Jordan       N273    14.6%    El-Sibai et al. (2009)

Pyrgi Tablets, bilingual text  between Etrusci[R1b?] and Canaanites[J2?].

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrgi_Tablets


« Last Edit: July 22, 2012, 03:35:31 PM by acekon » Logged

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« Reply #53 on: July 22, 2012, 04:01:21 PM »

What are the latest calculations of the age of M269 'all' and also L23*?

I don't know if we have representative enough sampling to have any better estimates.  I'm comfortable with the statement that FTDNA's chief statement, Dr. Michael Hammer, made a couple of years ago - R-M269 is about 4-8k ybp old and moved in through Europe East to West.

I can definitely see (from anectodotal looks at the data) that R1b itself (R-M343 could be quite a bit older than R-M269.

Just based on long haplotypes at FTDNA projects, I think R-L23xL11 is older in SW Asia/Caucasus than in Europe, but that is not based on representative sampling.   We surely do not have an adequate survey of the Steppes all the way around the Black Sea to the East into SE Europe. This could be the critical area to understand.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2012, 04:04:09 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #54 on: July 22, 2012, 05:53:57 PM »

What are the latest calculations of the age of M269 'all' and also L23*?

I don't know if we have representative enough sampling to have any better estimates.  I'm comfortable with the statement that FTDNA's chief statement, Dr. Michael Hammer, made a couple of years ago - R-M269 is about 4-8k ybp old and moved in through Europe East to West.

I can definitely see (from anectodotal looks at the data) that R1b itself (R-M343 could be quite a bit older than R-M269.

Just based on long haplotypes at FTDNA projects, I think R-L23xL11 is older in SW Asia/Caucasus than in Europe, but that is not based on representative sampling.   We surely do not have an adequate survey of the Steppes all the way around the Black Sea to the East into SE Europe. This could be the critical area to understand.

Is steppes R1b generally upstream of L51?  I assume it is but I am not sure I have seen statistics. 

BTW, after Dienekes comments on that new paper (which is free on the web) I was looking at the Wiki page for Iran.  It has an incredibly complex history including an extermination of most of the population by the Mongols at one stage.  I wouldnt be too confident that much can be based on the present population. 
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ironroad41
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« Reply #55 on: July 22, 2012, 06:51:46 PM »

I agree with you again Alan.  How in the heck are we to interpret prior genetic composition  from todays alleles.  Look at the US today, how would we reconstruct history from the current distribution of Hgs????  I think that maliclavelli and rms2 are correct.  Its one case at a time and you focus on that which you think you most understand.  The crossroads of history are too complex. 
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #56 on: July 22, 2012, 11:10:13 PM »

Perhaps J2 in Etrusci came from Canaanites/Phoenicians in Levant?
Etruscans- 50% R1b and 30%J[J2?]-Elevated R1b and non Semitic language.
Canaan-Lebanon, and the western parts of Jordan and Syria
Pyrgi- ancient Etrusci port in Latium, central Italy
Elevated numbers of J2 in Levant, (Northwest Semitic, Canaan/Phoenician)
1] Lebanon       N951    29.4%    El-Sibai et al. (2009)
2] Syria    Syria    N554    20.8%    El-Sibai et al. (2009)
3] Jordan       N273    14.6%    El-Sibai et al. (2009)
Pyrgi Tablets, bilingual text  between Etrusci[R1b?] and Canaanites[J2?].
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrgi_Tablets

Acekon, unfortunately what you say is just what everyone shouldn’t ever say. Without a knowledge of history (and all the other linked sciences) our analyses aren’t worth anything.
Etruscans hadn’t anything to do with Phoenicians nor with Asia Minor in historic times as I have explained infinite times also on this blog: I have broken in pieces, if you permit me to say so, all the papers, also of illustrious geneticists, who tried to demonstrate this link.
Etruscans and Phoenicians were allied against Greeks, the common enemy to control the sea, and the Pyrgi Tablets (two in Etruscan and one in Phoenician) are just a treatise of alliance. Phoenicians had colonies in Sicily and in Sardinia, but you should know that Phoenicians were a few and also in war used mercenaries and probably their genetic impact, in spite of what many write, was minimum, but they hadn’t anything to do with Etruria. They were allied also with Rome before its expansion to South Italy and the incorporation of the Greek towns made it become the first its enemy (“delenda Carthago”).
And that the genetic exchange was always in one way (from East to West) is another prejudice to discredit: probably the few R-M18 found in Lebanon came from Sardinia and not the other way around.
Probably the J2 found in Lebanon and in Etruria came from a third source, i.e Asia Minor, and Asia Minor wasn’t ever a Semitic land and it isn’t either now, in spite of its Semitic religion.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2012, 12:36:12 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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Jean M
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« Reply #57 on: July 23, 2012, 04:42:18 AM »

What are the latest calculations of the age of M269 'all' and also L23*?

The calculations I have were made some time ago. They vary.

For M269:  
4-8000 ya (Vince Vizachero, cited by Michael Hammer in a lecture)
5-8000 ya (Arredi et al 2007)
6500-8500 ya (Tim Janzen) - That was the most recent I have, but not from 2012.

For L23
5700 y.a. +/- 2110 (V.V.)  
6500-8000 y. a. (T.J.)

R1b1a2a* (L23) is found in eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Turkey and Circum-Urals (Myres 2010)  

[edit] Corrected typos in dates!
« Last Edit: July 24, 2012, 03:07:47 AM by Jean M » Logged
Maliclavelli
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« Reply #58 on: July 23, 2012, 07:57:23 AM »

The calculations I have were made some time ago. They vary.

For M269:  
4-800[0] ya (Vince Vizachero, cited by Michael Hammer in a lecture)
5-800[0] ya (Arredi et al 2007)
6500-8500 ya (Tim Janzen) - That was the most recent I have, but not from 2012.

For L23
5700 y.a. +/- 2110 (V.V.)  
6500-8000 y. a. (T.J.)

R1b1a2a* (L23) is found in eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Turkey and Circum-Urals (Myres 2010)  

If the R-L51 found in Valencia Region and Central Portugal (see the RRocca’s map of R-L51) arrived, as I think, with the agriculturalists from Italy (Zilhao and many others) 7500 years ago, then the ancestor R-L23 is older even than what T. Janzen says, which is already more than what was thought till a few time ago. And probably arrived in Iberia above all R-P312 in its first mutation. Then I’d add to the Janzen calculation a few hundreds or thousands of years more.
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Maliclavelli


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« Reply #59 on: July 23, 2012, 08:03:31 AM »

What are the latest calculations of the age of M269 'all' and also L23*?

The calculations I have were made some time ago. They vary.

For M269:  
4-800 ya (Vince Vizachero, cited by Michael Hammer in a lecture)
5-800 ya (Arredi et al 2007)
6500-8500 ya (Tim Janzen) - That was the most recent I have, but not from 2012.

For L23
5700 y.a. +/- 2110 (V.V.)  
6500-8000 y. a. (T.J.)

R1b1a2a* (L23) is found in eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Turkey and Circum-Urals (Myres 2010)  
To really appreciate the complexity of this question, read below and especially some of the comments:www.archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/GENEALOGY-DNA/2008-07/1216954630.
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Jean M
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« Reply #60 on: July 23, 2012, 08:26:49 AM »

To really appreciate the complexity of this question ...

I think most readers here are well aware of the complexity of the question. What it boils down to is that you can argue away any date that you don't like. Playing around with statistics won't actually get us solid answers that logical persons will have to accept, whether they like it or not.

Ancient DNA holds out hope of eventually supplying solid links between dates and haplogroups. In the meantime, people who want to get at the truth are applying logical deduction to whatever data is available. So far the dates supplied from germline rates appear a better fit to  events over the last couple of millennia than those generated by the "evolutionary effective" rate.  

  
« Last Edit: July 23, 2012, 08:29:40 AM by Jean M » Logged
acekon
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« Reply #61 on: July 23, 2012, 08:59:57 AM »

Perhaps J2 in Etrusci came from Canaanites/Phoenicians in Levant?
Etruscans- 50% R1b and 30%J[J2?]-Elevated R1b and non Semitic language.
Canaan-Lebanon, and the western parts of Jordan and Syria
Pyrgi- ancient Etrusci port in Latium, central Italy
Elevated numbers of J2 in Levant, (Northwest Semitic, Canaan/Phoenician)
1] Lebanon       N951    29.4%    El-Sibai et al. (2009)
2] Syria    Syria    N554    20.8%    El-Sibai et al. (2009)
3] Jordan       N273    14.6%    El-Sibai et al. (2009)
Pyrgi Tablets, bilingual text  between Etrusci[R1b?] and Canaanites[J2?].
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrgi_Tablets

Acekon, unfortunately what you say is just what everyone shouldn’t ever say. Without a knowledge of history (and all the other linked sciences) our analyses aren’t worth anything.
Etruscans hadn’t anything to do with Phoenicians nor with Asia Minor in historic times as I have explained infinite times also on this blog: I have broken in pieces, if you permit me to say so, all the papers, also of illustrious geneticists, who tried to demonstrate this link.
Etruscans and Phoenicians were allied against Greeks, the common enemy to control the sea, and the Pyrgi Tablets (two in Etruscan and one in Phoenician) are just a treatise of alliance. Phoenicians had colonies in Sicily and in Sardinia, but you should know that Phoenicians were a few and also in war used mercenaries and probably their genetic impact, in spite of what many write, was minimum, but they hadn’t anything to do with Etruria. They were allied also with Rome before its expansion to South Italy and the incorporation of the Greek towns made it become the first its enemy (“delenda Carthago”).
And that the genetic exchange was always in one way (from East to West) is another prejudice to discredit: probably the few R-M18 found in Lebanon came from Sardinia and not the other way around.
Probably the J2 found in Lebanon and in Etruria came from a third source, i.e Asia Minor, and Asia Minor wasn’t ever a Semitic land and it isn’t either now, in spite of its Semitic religion.

You have posted the elevated level of R1b in Etruria, where did there language originate.Would you say the  Phillistines are an example of the West to East colonization, like R-M18?
« Last Edit: July 23, 2012, 09:01:16 AM by acekon » Logged

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« Reply #62 on: July 23, 2012, 09:12:42 AM »

To really appreciate the complexity of this question ...

I think most readers here are well aware of the complexity of the question. What it boils down to is that you can argue away any date that you don't like. Playing around with statistics won't actually get us solid answers that logical persons will have to accept, whether they like it or not.

Ancient DNA holds out hope of eventually supplying solid links between dates and haplogroups. In the meantime, people who want to get at the truth are applying logical deduction to whatever data is available. So far the dates supplied from germline rates appear a better fit to  events over the last couple of millennia than those generated by the "evolutionary effective" rate.
Quote

What to you mean by "germline" rates?  Birth data?  mutation rates don't give us dates.  It requires a model to apply the birth data generated.  How many of the slower mutators have been observed in studies?

Variance was a proposed model of the mutational process:  A WAG if you will based on the data then available.  To my knowledge it hasn't been verified with data?   It has had some strong advocates (bullies if you will) who shouted other approaches down, and belittled the Zhivotovsky approach - but didn't show why it was wrong!

Most estimates of the last millenia are fairly well understood, its when you go back 5 to 10 to 15 and so on millenia, that the problems occur.  Diversity is not a good current measure of time; neither is the drunkards walk as modelled by variance.

I'm not necessarily a proponent of the "evolutionary rate" either.  I assumed I understand how he got there, but at best it is poorly explained in his papers.

I'm not sure about Klyosov either, but I do agree with his consensus that you have to use slow mutators, the rates for which, are the most unknown.

If you think I should swallow every utterance of Wolff and Fraser, than I think you should stick to history.  JMHO. 

  

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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #63 on: July 23, 2012, 10:11:13 AM »

You have posted the elevated level of R1b in Etruria, where did there language originate.Would you say the  Phillistines are an example of the West to East colonization, like R-M18?

This is the percentage of the 1000 Genomes Project, but that Tuscany and the ancient zone peopled by Etruscans is high in hg. R is well known. Ferri’s paper on Modena Province found R at 67,7% and Garfagnana has till 75%.
About the origin of the Etruscan language we have spoken so much. I think that Etruscan is linked with Rhaetic and Camun and is born in Italy. The Lemnians were probably descendants of Etruscan from Italy.
Another myth to disprove is that of the Sea Peoples come from Aegean Sea only. Probably TWRS (Etruscans) SHKLSH (Siculs) and SHRDN (Sardinians) came from Italy.
PLSHT (Philistines) came probably from Aegean Sea (see the Greek Pelasgoi) and certainly took Aegean genes, we don’t know how many to-day.
R-M18, if born in Sardinia like a descendant of R-V88+, may have arrived in Lebanon during the Phoenician colonization of Sardinia, but don’t forget that Sardinians fought like mercenaries in all the Middle East at least from the 13th century BC.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2012, 04:42:29 PM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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« Reply #64 on: July 23, 2012, 07:08:50 PM »

What are the latest calculations of the age of M269 'all' and also L23*?

The calculations I have were made some time ago. They vary.

For M269:  
4-800 ya (Vince Vizachero, cited by Michael Hammer in a lecture)
5-800 ya (Arredi et al 2007)
6500-8500 ya (Tim Janzen) - That was the most recent I have, but not from 2012.

For L23
5700 y.a. +/- 2110 (V.V.)  
6500-8000 y. a. (T.J.)

R1b1a2a* (L23) is found in eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Turkey and Circum-Urals (Myres 2010)  

Cheers.  So still centred on about 3500-3000BC with a maximum stretch back to 6000-6500BC.  So, it still looks like M269 either didnt exist or was somewhere well off the main developed faming area in the early Neolithic. Although its circular I suppose the suggested dates and the lack of earlier deep prolific branching in R1b are mutually supporting and do fit together.  Is it really possible for M269 to have been in Anatolia or northern Mesoptamia or even Iran before L23* when it is so rare?  I would have thought farming would have led to an earlier take off.  I have just come to think more and more that the high L23* zone is a destination or point of early growth on entering a farming area rather than an origin point.  I cant speak for the whole of the middle east but I do think that L23* is an intrusion into Anatolia.  Had R1b been in a very early farming area like eastern Anatolia prior to L23* then it would have had more variance and early branching.  So that for me places R1b as overwhelmingly in a non-farming context until rather late.  R1bs shape prior to L23 is all wrong for it to have been in Anatolia or even Iran prior to L23 or certainly prior to M269.  I no longer think Anatolia is an option as the hiding place of R1b until L23/the copper age.  What do you think of the possibility that it was within a non-Yamnaya far western steppes culture bordering farming prior to the expansion of Yamnaya?         
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« Reply #65 on: July 23, 2012, 08:08:15 PM »

What are the latest calculations of the age of M269 'all' and also L23*?

The calculations I have were made some time ago. They vary.

For M269:  
4-800 ya (Vince Vizachero, cited by Michael Hammer in a lecture)
5-800 ya (Arredi et al 2007)
6500-8500 ya (Tim Janzen) - That was the most recent I have, but not from 2012.

For L23
5700 y.a. +/- 2110 (V.V.)  
6500-8000 y. a. (T.J.)

R1b1a2a* (L23) is found in eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Turkey and Circum-Urals (Myres 2010)  

Cheers.  So still centred on about 3500-3000BC with a maximum stretch back to 6000-6500BC.  So, it still looks like M269 either didnt exist or was somewhere well off the main developed faming area in the early Neolithic. Although its circular I suppose the suggested dates and the lack of earlier deep prolific branching in R1b are mutually supporting and do fit together.  Is it really possible for M269 to have been in Anatolia or northern Mesoptamia or even Iran before L23* when it is so rare?  I would have thought farming would have led to an earlier take off.  I have just come to think more and more that the high L23* zone is a destination or point of early growth on entering a farming area rather than an origin point.  I cant speak for the whole of the middle east but I do think that L23* is an intrusion into Anatolia.  Had R1b been in a very early farming area like eastern Anatolia prior to L23* then it would have had more variance and early branching.  So that for me places R1b as overwhelmingly in a non-farming context until rather late.  R1bs shape prior to L23 is all wrong for it to have been in Anatolia or even Iran prior to L23 or certainly prior to M269.  I no longer think Anatolia is an option as the hiding place of R1b until L23/the copper age.  What do you think of the possibility that it was within a non-Yamnaya far western steppes culture bordering farming prior to the expansion of Yamnaya?        

I think Jean M means 4-8000 ybp, right not 4-800. The 4000-8000 ybp by Michael Hammers for M269 fits nicely with the L23 estimate od 5700 ybp by Vince Vizachero or 6500-8000 ybp by Tim Janzen and even earlier that I get for L11 using Nordtvedt's tool and long haplotypes.  I get 4000-5000 ybp for the L11* man who was U106/P312's MRCA.
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R-L11_Subclades_Timeline.jpg

I think Tim J's estimates are a little long based on his propensity to use slow markers, but that's a whole can of worms so let's not go there.  

I'll just say that I think the U106-P312 interclade TMRCA is significantly younger than the L23 TMRCA. By that I mean about a 1000 years.

These estimates aren't much more precise than this and they really haven't changed that much. The longer haplotypes and more data are validating the earlier estimates, at least for R-M269.

Alan, I tend to agree with you that "R1bs shape prior to L23 is all wrong for it to have been in Anatolia or even Iran prior to L23 or certainly prior to M269.  I no longer think Anatolia is an option as the hiding place of R1b until L23/the copper age."  Remember Mt. Ida and the Mycenean Greek perspective is just that, Greek-centric. I don't think they talk about their pre-Greek cousins, the rest of the Indo-European pack, do they?

I don't know the terrain that well in Anatolia, but perhaps there are mountainous sections, particularly along the Caucasus, that could have been out of the way of the early Neolithic launches.  I just can't see how R1b was too close to the Levant and having missed the boat to be the seeds for the Cardial Wares and LBK expansions. R1b was slightly out of the way somewhere and even more strangely, skipped/skirted through to Egypt as R1b-V88 also.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2012, 10:34:37 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #66 on: July 23, 2012, 08:40:41 PM »

What are the latest calculations of the age of M269 'all' and also L23*?

The calculations I have were made some time ago. They vary.

For M269:  
4-800 ya (Vince Vizachero, cited by Michael Hammer in a lecture)
5-800 ya (Arredi et al 2007)
6500-8500 ya (Tim Janzen) - That was the most recent I have, but not from 2012.

For L23
5700 y.a. +/- 2110 (V.V.)  
6500-8000 y. a. (T.J.)

R1b1a2a* (L23) is found in eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Turkey and Circum-Urals (Myres 2010)  

Cheers.  So still centred on about 3500-3000BC with a maximum stretch back to 6000-6500BC.  So, it still looks like M269 either didnt exist or was somewhere well off the main developed faming area in the early Neolithic. Although its circular I suppose the suggested dates and the lack of earlier deep prolific branching in R1b are mutually supporting and do fit together.  Is it really possible for M269 to have been in Anatolia or northern Mesoptamia or even Iran before L23* when it is so rare?  I would have thought farming would have led to an earlier take off.  I have just come to think more and more that the high L23* zone is a destination or point of early growth on entering a farming area rather than an origin point.  I cant speak for the whole of the middle east but I do think that L23* is an intrusion into Anatolia.  Had R1b been in a very early farming area like eastern Anatolia prior to L23* then it would have had more variance and early branching.  So that for me places R1b as overwhelmingly in a non-farming context until rather late.  R1bs shape prior to L23 is all wrong for it to have been in Anatolia or even Iran prior to L23 or certainly prior to M269.  I no longer think Anatolia is an option as the hiding place of R1b until L23/the copper age.  What do you think of the possibility that it was within a non-Yamnaya far western steppes culture bordering farming prior to the expansion of Yamnaya?        

I think Jean M means 4-8000 ybp, right not 4-800. The 4000-8000 ybp by Michael Hammers for M269 fits nicely with the L23 estimate od 5700 ybp by Vince Vizachero or 6500-8000 ybp by Tim Janzen and even earlier that I get for L11 using Nordtvedt's tool and long haplotypes.  I get 4000-5000 ybp for the L11* man who was U106/P312's MRCA.
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R-L11_Subclades_Timeline.jpg

I think Tim J's estimates are a little long based on his propensity to use slow markers, but that's a whole can of worms so let's not go there.  

I'll just say that I think the U106-P312 interclade TMRCA is significantly younger than the L23 TMRCA. By that I mean about a 1000 years.

These estimates aren't much more precise than this and they really haven't changed that much. The longer haplotypes and more data are validating the earlier estimates, at least for R-M269.

Alan, I tend to agree with you that "R1bs shape prior to L23 is all wrong for it to have been in Anatolia or even Iran prior to L23 or certainly prior to M269.  I no longer think Anatolia is an option as the hiding place of R1b until L23/the copper age."  Remember Mt. Ida and the Mycenean Greek perspective is just that, Greek-centric. I don't think they talk about their pre-Greek cousins, the rest of the Indo-European pact, do they?

I don't know the terrain that well in Anatolia, but perhaps there are mountainous sections, particularly along the Caucasus, that could have been out of the way of the early Neolithic launches.  I just can't see how R1b was too close to the Levant and having missed the boat to be the seeds for the Cardial Wares and LBK expansions. R1b was slightly out of the way somewhere and even more strangely, skipped/skirted through to Egypt as R1b-V88 also.


I have been wondering if there was some corner of those areas that farming was not taken up or were so marginal or nomadic that they didnt receive the demographic boost of farming.  However, it just seems simpler to look to the steppes.  The distribution of M269 and derived clades in the east seems to strongly suggest its main zoone of prevallence in the middle east does tend to be around the east Anatolia, Caucuses, Armenia, NW Iran area which strongly suggests that that any route connecting the near east and areas to the north was not much futher east than than the  caucuses.  I notice that L23 does seem to rise among the IE groups of that area. Again I would repeat that as far as I am aware Anatolia and probably the other areas too were in the farming zone long before L23 existed.  I need to look a little further into the history of farming in the other parts of this area.
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Jean M
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« Reply #67 on: July 24, 2012, 03:08:36 AM »

I think Jean M means 4-8000 ybp, right not 4-800.

Yes. Sorry! Fixed.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2012, 03:08:46 AM by Jean M » Logged
Maliclavelli
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« Reply #68 on: July 24, 2012, 04:07:33 AM »

The calculations I have were made some time ago. They vary.

For M269:  
4-800[0] ya (Vince Vizachero, cited by Michael Hammer in a lecture)
5-800[0] ya (Arredi et al 2007)
6500-8500 ya (Tim Janzen) - That was the most recent I have, but not from 2012.

For L23
5700 y.a. +/- 2110 (V.V.)  
6500-8000 y. a. (T.J.)

R1b1a2a* (L23) is found in eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Turkey and Circum-Urals (Myres 2010)  

If the R-L51 found in Valencia Region and Central Portugal (see the RRocca’s map of R-L51) arrived, as I think, with the agriculturalists from Italy (Zilhao and many others) 7500 years ago, then the ancestor R-L23 is older even than what T. Janzen says, which is already more than what was thought till a few time ago. And probably arrived in Iberia above all R-P312 in its first mutation. Then I’d add to the Janzen calculation a few hundreds or thousands of years more.

I had already corrected it in my post.
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« Reply #69 on: August 06, 2012, 01:38:26 PM »

I think Jean M means 4-8000 ybp, right not 4-800.

Yes. Sorry! Fixed.

Don't you think there is a paradox in giving this estimate [4000-8000] 4000@50%, considering we have some hobbyists claiming how accurate mutation modals/clocks are?
That's a lot of wiggle room! That is a big enough hole to drive a Mack Truck through.


http://sovietrussia.org/big/src/12347989112024219.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKZg0exY_NE

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« Reply #70 on: August 06, 2012, 02:52:30 PM »

I think Jean M means 4-8000 ybp, right not 4-800.

Yes. Sorry! Fixed.

Don't you think there is a paradox in giving this estimate [4000-8000] 4000@50%, considering we have some hobbyists claiming how accurate mutation modals/clocks are?

No, I don't see the paradox. A four thousand year range is quite plausible. I haven't seen anyone claiming extreme precision with this stuff. Perhaps you've interpreted that way.  You realize that confidence ranges are given only as relates to the population surveyed and data, and the confidence ranges are exclusive of some of the mutation rate arguments (i.e. germ-line versus evolutionary.) You are aware of that, right?

To me, a 4k-8k range is quite instructive. It  fairly well eliminates some hypotheses like an expansion immediately following the LGM some 20K ybp, or even a Mesolithic expansion post the Colder Dryas event.
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acekon
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« Reply #71 on: August 06, 2012, 04:56:12 PM »

I think Jean M means 4-8000 ybp, right not 4-800.

Yes. Sorry! Fixed.

Don't you think there is a paradox in giving this estimate [4000-8000] 4000@50%, considering we have some hobbyists claiming how accurate mutation modals/clocks are?

No, I don't see the paradox. A four thousand year range is quite plausible. I haven't seen anyone claiming extreme precision with this stuff. Perhaps you've interpreted that way.  You realize that confidence ranges are given only as relates to the population surveyed and data, and the confidence ranges are exclusive of some of the mutation rate arguments (i.e. germ-line versus evolutionary.) You are aware of that, right?

To me, a 4k-8k range is quite instructive. It  fairly well eliminates some hypotheses like an expansion immediately following the LGM some 20K ybp, or even a Mesolithic expansion post the Colder Dryas event.

 IMO, one misinterprited str back mutation, or newly discovered snp can change a lot in a 4000 year time frame, of R-M269, and Europe.

 A lot of human history can happen in 4000 years or roughly 4/5 the age of L584, right?

 For example in the context of R1b and L584 which you questioned, in relation to Europe.

In human migration , for example. Where did the Philistines come from, and who were these foreign invaders[L584]? When did they settle in Levant[L584] what language did they speak, Indo-European, Afro-Asiatic?

{Pleshet or Peleset, were a people who appeared in the southern coastal area of Canaan at the beginning of the Iron Age (circa 1175 BC), most probably from the Aegean region,}

How many of these foreigners actually converted to the Jewish faith, as in the case of Itai HaGiti, King David's[1040–970 BCE] Philistine army general? Not all were hostile, they apparently they chose sides. Eventually, while David was out battling a tribe called the Amalekites, Saul and Jonathan were killed on Mt. Gilboa in a fight with the Philistines.

[And David said to Itai: 'Go and pass over.' And Itai the Gittite passed over, and all his men, and all the little ones that were with him".]2 Samuel Chapter 15: "(19-22)


In the case of the Edomites[R1b?], and forced conversion.

HYRCANUS, JOHN (JOHANAN) I{134 - 104 BC, died 104 BC.} who forcibly converted the Edomites.

Or in the case of voluntary conversion as in the case of Queen Helena[sons L584?] who became a convert to Judaism about the year 30 CE. It is not often that a queen decides to become a Jewess, but such was the case with Queen Helena of Adiabene, the capital of a rich country which extended over a part of the former Assyrian empire.


« Last Edit: August 06, 2012, 05:10:27 PM by acekon » Logged

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #72 on: August 06, 2012, 05:27:09 PM »

I think Jean M means 4-8000 ybp, right not 4-800.

Yes. Sorry! Fixed.

Don't you think there is a paradox in giving this estimate [4000-8000] 4000@50%, considering we have some hobbyists claiming how accurate mutation modals/clocks are?
That's a lot of wiggle room! That is a big enough hole to drive a Mack Truck through.


http://sovietrussia.org/big/src/12347989112024219.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKZg0exY_NE



I would add to what mike says that even the extreme outside of that range (6000BC for L23 and 6500BC for M269) is too young for them to have been among the early farmers in SW Asia.  Of course that is backed up by its lack of much branching and of course the fact it was not sweeped into Europe around then with the spread of farming.  Basically it seems to have been holed up outside (almost certainly to the north of) the early farming zone of the fertile cresent area somewhere.  However, there were probably a number of peripheral pockets outside the main farming zone on both sides of the Black and Caspian Seas.  Its a pretty specialist area to say the least.  The date range does not quite rule out the possibility that the secondary Neolithic spread of cattle pastoralism was involved but the downstream form and low variance of most R1b in Europe beyond the east and south-east just doesnt fit any very neat correlation with the spread of cattle dairying on a Europe-wide basis. I also dont think NW Anatolia (where dairying arose) as a likely spot for R1b to have been holed up.  Dienekes concluded that R1b was located east or north-east of G, the most common farming haplotype in ancient Neolthic DNA.  I think the origin of M269 has been narrowed down to an area somewhere between the mountains north of Mesopotamia in the south, the southern shore of the Black Sea in the north, the Caspian Sea in the east and western edge of the steppes in the north-west but I wouldnt bet anything on exactly where within that area.    
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vineviz
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« Reply #73 on: August 06, 2012, 06:27:11 PM »

Don't you think there is a paradox in giving this estimate [4000-8000] 4000@50%, considering we have some hobbyists claiming how accurate mutation modals/clocks are?
That's a lot of wiggle room! That is a big enough hole to drive a Mack Truck through.
As with any estimator, there are two issues:  one is precision and one is accuracy.

With either STRs or SNPs, precision is strictly dependent on the sum of mutation rates of the markers involved.

With only 37 or 67 markers, the 95% confidence interval is indeed very wide on a TMRC estimate.  That lack of precision doesn't mean the estimate is not accurate.
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acekon
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« Reply #74 on: August 06, 2012, 08:15:30 PM »

Don't you think there is a paradox in giving this estimate [4000-8000] 4000@50%, considering we have some hobbyists claiming how accurate mutation modals/clocks are?
That's a lot of wiggle room! That is a big enough hole to drive a Mack Truck through.
As with any estimator, there are two issues:  one is precision and one is accuracy.

With either STRs or SNPs, precision is strictly dependent on the sum of mutation rates of the markers involved.

With only 37 or 67 markers, the 95% confidence interval is indeed very wide on a TMRC estimate.  That lack of precision doesn't mean the estimate is not accurate.


You have very good knowledge, you know the outline of the y-tree,you also have perhaps 1000's STR's data[37/67/111] and SNP data on many populations including R1b, you have computers for calculating and simulating theoretical mutation rates, you have extremely bright mathematicians to create fool proof models. Everything I concede to you, everything I put in your favor, every tool I give to you.

Rhetorical question??

 With what degree of accuracy/confidence level[50%-95%] would you be able to give the 12/37/67/111 STR's of the two recent samples found in Kromsdorf Germany[(ca. 2,800–2,000 BC]?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajpa.22074/abstract
« Last Edit: August 06, 2012, 08:16:02 PM by acekon » Logged

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