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Author Topic: A new order package? The R1b1a2 "Western" Deep Clade package  (Read 853 times)
Mike Walsh
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« on: June 08, 2012, 09:52:38 AM »

This is an idea I'd like to put on the table. My original concept does not need to be adopted but I want to get the conversation started to come up with more effective communications related to deep clade testing advice.

The increase in FTDNA's Universal Deep Clade package pricing may result in a reduction in orders.  Sometimes I wonder if these guys' pricing folks have a good market research on the supply/demand/pricing curves for these products. Nevertheless, with the plethora of SNPs and our ever growing knowledge of the Y DNA phylogenetic tree, the importance of tracking and sharing information among relevant hobbyist groups and project administrators is more important than ever.

Anyone who glances through public FTDNA projects for European geographic projects will notice there are a very large number of people who sit in a R1b1a2 predicted haplogroup status. My suggestion is that per haplogroup project, we could design a "package" of key SNPs and ask FTDNA to give a small price decrease if a customer wants to order a set of advanced order SNP tests.

For P312, this could work nicely.  The target testing group would be all of the R1b1a2 predicted or R1b1 predicted (possibly) from Western European countries, particularly with DYS492<>13.  We could look up the stats in Myres, but I'm pretty sure we could easily state that a very high percentage of R1b folks in the British Isles, France, Spain, Portugal; and probably the US and perhaps even Scandinavia and Germany, are P312+.  We could use this information in communications to the target audience.

The pseudo-package of advanced order SNPs would be P312, U152, L21 and DF27. That should add up to about $125 (4x29 + 9).   Perhaps the pseudo-package or project  price would be $109 or better, $99.  I don't know what FTDNA would accept but I think they will at least listen to the idea. I don't know how costly or complex it is for them to administrator packages/part numbers/their internal work order-testing system, but worst case project administrators could just place four different orders in this example.

It is true that an individual could go through a series of matching and one by one SNP testing steps to most effectively find their terminal SNP.  However, it is now very apparent to me from various communications I've had with hobbyists that a large proportion of hobbyists have a difficult time understanding the SNP labeling and the phylogenetic tree.  I don't blame them, but let's just say it is what it is.   "Right sized" packages are what they need.

Of course there could be other testing packages that are follow-ons.  There could be R1b1a2 492=13 package for U106 suspects. There could be an L21 package for L21+ people that includes DF21, DF49, L513, Z253, Z255 and DF13.

However, I don't want to lose sight of the large number R1b1a2 and R1b1 predicted people sitting out there that should do at least one round of SNP testing.


« Last Edit: June 08, 2012, 08:17:22 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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razyn
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2012, 12:48:40 PM »

we could design a "package" of key SNPs and ask FTDNA to give a small  if a customer wants to order a set of advanced order SNP tests.

The spam protection software of this site deleted a word in your post, which I suspect began with "dis" and ended with "count," and was what FTDNA might give a small one of.  (Other possibilities might include "shout of joy," etc.)

I just got back from meeting with a member of our tiny surname project who has just had his first 37 marker test, and wants to know what's next.  He's I2b1 predicted.  I told him to join that project, see what (green letter) tested person's STR markers are the closest match with his, see what terminal SNP they have, and order that one for $29.  I still think that's pretty good advice; but in further conversation he decided he'd rather go with Family Finder -- and I happened to have a coupon code for that (good for two more days), so he gets to order it for $179 using my coupon.
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Richard Rocca
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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2012, 01:01:20 PM »

I would wait to see how many levels of Z-Series SNPs are included in the new Deep Clade product before approaching FTDNA with an alternate product.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2012, 08:18:11 PM »

we could design a "package" of key SNPs and ask FTDNA to give a small  if a customer wants to order a set of advanced order SNP tests.

The spam protection software of this site deleted a word in your post, which I suspect began with "dis" and ended with "count," and was what FTDNA might give a small one of.  (Other possibilities might include "shout of joy," etc.)...

Yes, for some reason "dis.count" without the period gets deleted.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2012, 08:27:10 PM »

I would wait to see how many levels of Z-Series SNPs are included in the new Deep Clade product before approaching FTDNA with an alternate product.

That's part of the problem.  We are stalled out on the deep clade package. What you get now, is way out of date, but we don't know what we will get. People will order it anyway and come back P312* or L21* or whatever not knowing there was a better way.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2012, 09:48:22 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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Dubhthach
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« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2012, 03:53:45 AM »

One of problems I see is that often people in projects do not want to be told about possible upgrades. The vast bulk of Ireland project is R1b-M269 (predicted), I have had sent bulk emails before talking about deep-clade and apart from NDR (non-delivery reports) alot of the responses are of negative variety (why am I been contacted?, why should i pay FTDNA more? etc.)

At the moment my thinking is the next time I do a "bulk email" to M269er's I'll just send it to those in the project who are 111-STR markers. They obviously are showing some interst otherwise they wouldn't have upgrade to 111 markers.

Do we have any idea when FTDNA plan to upgrade the Deep clade package?
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wing_genealogist
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« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2012, 08:56:30 AM »

One problem with creating a "partial" Deep Clade package is the fact some folks who  order this package would test negative for all clades and may end up with bitter feelings.

Some U106 folks do not have DYS 492=13, and some P312 folk do have 492=13. Even though the percentage is quite small, it is definitely not negligible. And there will be some folk who are neither U106 nor P312 (so even expanding the test to include U106 would not be a perfect solution).

I do agree there is quite the logjam at R1b1a2 and exploring ways to move these folks forward is definitely in everyone's best interest.
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Y-DNA - R1b M157.2 (a private/family subclade of Z6/Z352) 111 markers tested

mt-DNA - J1c2g with the following private mutations: 315.1C 522.1A 522.2C C9974T C16256T (FMS tested and submitted to GenBank)

Autosomal - shows as a typical English ancestry. Tested with 23andMe, FTDNA
Mike Walsh
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« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2012, 09:14:48 PM »

One of problems I see is that often people in projects do not want to be told about possible upgrades. The vast bulk of Ireland project is R1b-M269 (predicted)...

I'm not sure who wants to receives bulk emails or not, but I can tell you they work.

When a bulk email goes out with a quote from someone FTDNA, like it did with L226 or DF13, a lot of people order.   Some order even if the bulk email is clear about who it applies to and not.  That's okay. I'm just saying we need to understand the influence of bulk emails.... or mass marketing.

A deep clade package is a safe mass marketing offer.  It is clearly applicable. Is it is always the most efficient? No, but identifying the optimal sequene for SNP testing is often subjective and complex.  Advanced order one at a time SNP testing is complex, too complex for the masses.  

The deep clade package, as it was, was a good recommendation. Now, it is not. It is out of date and will grow in expense.  Perhaps when the new package is fully documented and available we will see the expense is clearly worth it. I don't know.

Nevertheless, there are a lot, a lot of R1b1a2 predicted people who are 492=12 doing nothing that need to be SNP tested.    A "phase 1" package of testing for P312, L21, U152 and DF27 might be right on target. After those four tests, you are probably going to have a pretty good base for knowing what to do next.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2012, 09:16:38 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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