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Author Topic: Post your model for the early spread of R1b across Europe  (Read 5580 times)
alan trowel hands.
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« on: May 05, 2012, 08:01:51 AM »

With constantly growing information and insights I think we are getting closer and closer to understanding R1b.  I dont think anyone has 100% nailed it but we are drawing closer to a consensus.  Based on the latest evidence here is my take on it


My favoured variant based on the DNA evidence would be that the spread began moved from the Adriatic Balkans/the west coast of the Black Sea or the western Anatolian coast or thereabouts as L23* (am deliberately being vague) and then it followed a marine route around (and into) the south and west side of Italy (with L51* springing up around then) and on reaching the SE of France/NW Italy L11* occurred very soon after.  Very soon after L11* occurred in SE France/west Alps.  Very shortly after P312* occurred in the same area of SE France/western Alps.

From there a mixed group with a small quantity of L51*, L11* and much more P312* spread by sea to Iberia, in various directions through France  and the Low Countries.  The L21, U152 and Z196 mutations occurred during this spread in and around France.  The U152 maybe occurred first closest to the SE France/Alps area with L21 occurring among a P312* line travelling on a SE to NW trajectory through France.  An L11* line (possibly among others like P312) that had headed along the Danube and up the north flowing rivers of Europe and an outlying pocket of L11* that had reached the Baltic soon experienced the U106* SNP in a dominant lineage.  I need to tweak this model when I get more time.  That is the way I would interpret looking at Variance of various clades, distribution and phylogeny.  Clearly afterwards there may have been a lot of mixing between beaker communities.   I tend to see the evidence of the next phase as secondary expansion from pockets of beaker communities across Europe.  That of course is not the whole story and there was likely later movements of R1b clades but that is my tentative take on the initial phase.  I have deliberately ignored all archaeological and linguistic evidence in this model as I would like the DNA evidence to create the model and then only after that see how it fits the archaeology.   In terms of archaeology the initial spread must have been pre-beaker (if only slightly so) until it reached SE France.  Somewhere the beaker culture arose quickly among the immediate pre-beaker R1b group but I am going to hang my hat on SE France rather than Iberia as the radiocarbon dating is inconclusive and geographically it is an ideal position to reach all the beaker areas using the west Med. route to Iberia, the Rhone to Rhine/Loire etc routes and it fits the DNA evidence best.

Anyway that is my tentative model.  Please critique and post your own but please base it on the DNA evidence, not preconceptions.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 08:05:16 AM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2012, 09:36:34 AM »

and for anyone who feels this doesnt work due to earliest beaker dates being in Iberia, an extremely recent paper on beaker 'Demography and mobility in NW Europe in the third millennium cal BC' by Marc Vander Linden states:

Before the onset of processualism, the localization of the homeland of the Bell Beaker Phenomenon was considered the necessary departing point of any interpretation of the period, hence the multiplicity of existing propositions, from the lower Rhine (Lanting
and van der Waals 1976) to various regions of the Iberian Peninsula (Castillo 1928;Kunst 2001), as well as the French Midi (Clarke 1970) or Sicily (Guilaine2004). An apparent consensus has recently emerged in placing the Bell Beaker homeland, or at least the development of one of its key components, the maritime beaker, in the Portuguese Estremadura (e.g. Guilaine et al. 2004; Kunst 2001; Needham 2005; Salanova 2004). The argument rests mainly on radiocarbon dates. In a widely quoted paper, Muller and van Willingen re-evaluated the relatively limited14Cevidence for the entire Bell Beaker Phenomenon and systematically considered charcoal dates as unreliable because of the potential 'old wood' effect (Muller and van Willingen 2001). Although their
decision seems methodologically sound, by acting so, they created an imbalanced dataset since, for instance, charcoal dates constituted until recently the only source of information for the Netherlands (Drenth and Hogestijn 2001; Lanting 2007/2008;Lanting and
van der Plicht 1999/2000;Lanting and van der Waals 1976). Their statistical treatment of the resulting dataset is thus only informative of their criteria for selecting dates, but by no means of any past reality (Vander Linden 2006: 12). The Portuguese Estremadura has yielded consistently old dates, pointing to the emergence of the BellBeaker Phenomenon somewhere between 2700 and 2500 cal. BC, but similar old - and otherwise valid for any quality criteria - dates are also available for the rest of the Iberian peninsula, the
French Midi and the Netherlands (Vander Linden 2006:12-14, annex). The solution, or absence thereof, of the problem lies in the radiocarbon curve for the third millennium cal. BC, which shows a lengthy plateau between 2700 and 2500 cal. BC (see Raetzel-Fabian
2001). All the 'old' dates fall within this plateau and are therefore virtually undistinguishable from each other. All things considered, it is thus not possible
to assign a Portuguese origin, or any other one, for the Bell Beaker Phenomenon on the sole basis of the radiocarbon evidence. This bias in favour of the
Estremadura is actually the renewed expression of a marked preference for this area which goes a long way back in the Bell Beaker historiography (e.g. Castillo 1928). Because of the inherent limits to the use of the 14Cdating method for the third millennium cal. BC, any attempt at locating the BellBeaker homeland must therefore eventually rest upon explicit cultural and typological arguments (Vander Linden 2006: 14).



While the author goes on to discuss Holland, what caught my eye (and what I have long thought) is the early dates from the French Midi=the south of France.  That is a much better match for the variance and also geographically more likely if you are looking for a point where beaker could have come into existence in western Europe and radiated out from using the Rhone, Rhine, Med., Loire and Danube.  
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 09:48:54 AM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
Jean M
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2012, 10:43:26 AM »

Well obviously Alan your model will be far better than the one I constructed yonks ago based on archaeology, linguistics, genetics and anything else I can think of. That goes without saying. You are a man. :) 
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2012, 10:44:10 AM »

... (and what I have long thought) is the early dates from the French Midi=the south of France.  That is a much better match for the variance and also geographically more likely if you are looking for a point where beaker could have come into existence in western Europe and radiated out from using the Rhone, Rhine, Med., Loire and Danube.  

I don't know where L11, P312, U106, etc. arose, but I agree with you and RRocca's general theme that there was expansion of L11 based folks from SE France/the West Alps.

That doesn't mean that was the start for L11, though, or L51. It could be.  It would be nice to figure out where this started. If it was really Anatolia, the Lower Danube or even in the Steppes or Caucasus.  It may have been just L23* then.  I don't know.
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R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>S6365>L705.2(&CTS11744,CTS6621)
Maliclavelli
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2012, 11:14:24 AM »

I have just posted this on another thread, but it is appropriate also here. Of course only other aDNA will be able to say which is the right interpretation.


These are the FGS used by Behar et al. (2012b) for haplogroup K1a1b1e:

Sample Id: JQ703805
Unresolved Options:
Partial Descendants:
Private Mutations: T477C;
Topologically Missing:
Country: Scotland
Geography:
Ancestry:
Reference: Behar 2012b
Contact:

Sample Id: JQ704056
Unresolved Options:
Partial Descendants:
Private Mutations: A8521G; T16093C;
Topologically Missing:
Country: [unknown]
Geography:
Ancestry: [/clone="4529", unknown, but the mutation T16093C is also in JQ706057, probably from Siena, Tuscany]
Reference: Behar 2012b
Contact:

Sample Id: JQ704207
Unresolved Options:
Partial Descendants:
Private Mutations: C114T; G3705A;
Topologically Missing: C146T(L1'2'3'4'5'6);
Country: Ireland
Geography:
Ancestry:
Reference: Behar 2012b
Contact:

Sample Id: JQ706057
Unresolved Options:
Partial Descendants:
Private Mutations: T16093C;
Topologically Missing:
Country: Italy
Geography:
Ancestry: Italian  [clone Siena100]
Reference: Behar 2012b
Contact:

Sample Id: HQ176413
Unresolved Options:
Partial Descendants:
Private Mutations: T11204C;
Topologically Missing:
Country: [Italy]
Geography:
Ancestry:  [Italian: Gioiello Tognoni]
Reference: FamilyTreeDNA
Contact:

Conclusions: either I and this individual from Siena, Tuscany, are from Ireland or Scotland, or these last are from Italy. Someone could say that we all come from Stelae people and come from Russia.

This haplogroup is given about 6000 years old.

Beyond the mutation of our subclade (G9932A) we have all at least one mutation, then our common ancestress could be also older than 7500 years and if we'll find someone in Portugal or along the Ocean coast, we could also think that our ancestress was with those agriculturalists from Tuscany or "Grotta delle Arene Candide".
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 11:44:34 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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rms2
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2012, 01:25:34 PM »

I don't have a model fully formed in my mind. I do think the movement in general was southeast to northwest, but I am uncertain of the starting point. That is the real question, anyway, since we know where most of us are now. The rest is very controversial and hazy.

The fact that the Basque language is generally regarded as non-Indo-European (as opposed to, say, pre-Indo-European) confuses things, because, for good or ill, the origin of R1b seems irrevocably tied to the Basques. Otherwise, the connection between R1b and Indo-European languages would be as obvious as a hammer blow to the head.

Now there is confirmation of some kind of connection between R1b and Bell Beaker Folk. That should clinch the IE bona fides, but the R1a partisans will resist that tooth and nail until some ancient R1b is actually recovered from the Pontic-Caspian steppe.

But what if the P-C steppe isn't really the IE Urheimat in the first place?

(That's kind of a rhetorical question. No need to marshal the steppe Urheimat arguments.)

« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 01:26:25 PM by rms2 » Logged

Jean M
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2012, 01:52:58 PM »

The fact that the Basque language is generally regarded as non-Indo-European (as opposed to, say, pre-Indo-European) confuses things

I rather think that the Basques will have to give up the notion of themselves as 100% pure descendants of the artists of Lascaux. My latest thinking is that they seem to be as mixed as the rest of us: descendants not of one wave of people taking refuge in the shadow of the Pyrenees, but several. I have realised that I was wrong and you were right when you said that before the arrival of R1b in the region, the people there would have been mainly I2a1a (M26). That seems to have spread with Cardial Ware. I'm assuming that both R1b and Proto-Basque arrived in Gascony together from the Balkans. The Copper Age Artenac Culture is considered the origin  of the Aquitanians, who are considered the ancestors of the Basques. But that just leads to the question of the origin of the Artenac Culture, generally considered local.  
  
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 02:19:12 PM by Jean M » Logged
Maliclavelli
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2012, 02:24:59 PM »

Also DQ112894, published on Ian Logan spreadsheet and belonging to K1a1b1e, is Italian:
See:  T. Kivisild et al., “The Role of Selection in the Evolution of Human Mitochondrial Genomes”, Genetics Society of America, 2006: Eu25   Italian


EF657432, published in Herrnstadt et al., Reduced-median-network analysis of complete mitochondrial DNA coding-region sequences for the major African, Asian, and European haplogroups, Am. J. Hum. Genet. 70 (5), 1152-1171 (2002), was submitted by (08-JUN-2007) Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology 'Ernesto Quagliariello', University of Bari, Via Orabona 4, Bari 70126, Italy.





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Maliclavelli


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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2012, 02:36:36 PM »

The fact that the Basque language is generally regarded as non-Indo-European (as opposed to, say, pre-Indo-European) confuses things

I rather think that the Basques will have to give up the notion of themselves as 100% pure descendants of the artists of Lascaux. My latest thinking is that they seem to be as mixed as the rest of us: descendants not of one wave of people taking refuge in the shadow of the Pyrenees, but several. I have realised that I was wrong and you were right when you said that before the arrival of R1b in the region, the people there would have been mainly I2a1a (M26). That seems to have spread with Cardial Ware. I'm assuming that both R1b and Proto-Basque arrived in Gascony together from the Balkans. The Copper Age Artenac Culture is considered the origin  of the Aquitanians, who are considered the ancestors of the Basques. But that just leads to the question of the origin of the Artenac Culture, generally considered local.  
  

I tend to think the Basque language was already there with the I-M26ers before R1b arrived.

What I meant by R1b being irrevocably tied to the Basques is that their non-IE language is constantly used and regarded as the ultimate argument against R1b as a vehicle of early Indo-European. "The Proto-Indo-Europeans couldn't have been R1b, because the Basques are mostly R1b and speak a non-IE language!" So the story goes.
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« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2012, 02:58:15 PM »

The fact that the Basque language is generally regarded as non-Indo-European (as opposed to, say, pre-Indo-European) confuses things

I rather think that the Basques will have to give up the notion of themselves as 100% pure descendants of the artists of Lascaux. My latest thinking is that they seem to be as mixed as the rest of us: descendants not of one wave of people taking refuge in the shadow of the Pyrenees, but several. I have realised that I was wrong and you were right when you said that before the arrival of R1b in the region, the people there would have been mainly I2a1a (M26). That seems to have spread with Cardial Ware. I'm assuming that both R1b and Proto-Basque arrived in Gascony together from the Balkans. The Copper Age Artenac Culture is considered the origin  of the Aquitanians, who are considered the ancestors of the Basques. But that just leads to the question of the origin of the Artenac Culture, generally considered local.  
  

I tend to think the Basque language was already there with the I-M26ers before R1b arrived.

What I meant by R1b being irrevocably tied to the Basques is that their non-IE language is constantly used and regarded as the ultimate argument against R1b as a vehicle of early Indo-European. "The Proto-Indo-Europeans couldn't have been R1b, because the Basques are mostly R1b and speak a non-IE language!" So the story goes.

I've never understood this argument of Basque=R1b, therefore not IE.  Most, if not all of the Basque R1b is young.  Also, I don't think R1b has to come from the steppe to be IE speakers, even if you follow the Gimbutas/Anthony PIE model.  Even, R1a looks like it came to Europe from Anatolia based on the SNP patterns.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 02:58:40 PM by MHammers » Logged

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Jean M
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« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2012, 03:11:08 PM »

I tend to think the Basque language was already there with the I-M26ers before R1b arrived.

 Looks like a language from the age of metal. See Basques. I  haven't been updating that text, so it does not reflect my latest thinking, but I do talk there about the words for metal. There have been a couple of linguistic puzzles hitherto which could be resolved by supposing that Proto-Basque had its origins somewhere near PIE.  

However I see no supporting archaeological evidence so far.


« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 03:14:11 PM by Jean M » Logged
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« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2012, 03:17:46 PM »

Even, R1a looks like it came to Europe from Anatolia based on the SNP patterns.

That is because people have moved around a lot since 4000 BC. Some of the R1a1a in Anatolia could reflect fairly early IE arrivals e.g. the Mitanni. The present population of the steppe is not a reflection of who was there 4000 BC. Most of the R1a1a there now will  be Slavic.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 03:48:54 PM by Jean M » Logged
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« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2012, 05:26:06 PM »

Reading this hugely informative and learned thread, and others, I notice equally interesting posts from Maliclavelli, yet for whatever reason his/her contributions do not seem to attract many responses. Anyone able to enlighten me as to why that may be so?
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« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2012, 05:53:55 PM »

Even, R1a looks like it came to Europe from Anatolia based on the SNP patterns.

That is because people have moved around a lot since 4000 BC. Some of the R1a1a in Anatolia could reflect fairly early IE arrivals e.g. the Mitanni. The present population of the steppe is not a reflection of who was there 4000 BC. Most of the R1a1a there now will  be Slavic.

I'm talking about the levels above R1a1a from a "big picture" perspective.  Although the sample is small,  it shows a SE to NW/NE movement into Europe.  There is nothing to suggest a central Asian to the steppe with that pattern, though that could change.  Yes, some probably are IE incursions into Anatolia, I just think R1a was initially some kind of meso- or neolithic people who settled eastern Europe before they became part of the IE world.  I agree, though about R1a1a and after.  It seems to emerge out of eastern Europe, the Slavs being one of the later large movements.
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« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2012, 06:02:46 PM »

I just think R1a was initially some kind of meso- or neolithic people who settled eastern Europe before they became part of the IE world.  

I'd say the same in slightly different words. As far as anyone can make out, the first speakers of PIE were hunter-gatherers who had adopted pastoralism/farming from  their neighbours. That fits the archaeological picture among the riverine communities on the steppe. There was interaction between them and farming neighbours, which fits R1a1 combined with some Mesolithic and some Neolithic mtDNA in Andronovo. The latter is the nearest we have come so far to the DNA pattern at the eastern end of the Pontic-Caspian steppe. 
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 06:04:07 PM by Jean M » Logged
alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #15 on: May 05, 2012, 06:37:12 PM »

Well obviously Alan your model will be far better than the one I constructed yonks ago based on archaeology, linguistics, genetics and anything else I can think of. That goes without saying. You are a man. :) 

???? what does that mean??
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Jean M
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« Reply #16 on: May 05, 2012, 06:44:43 PM »

@ Alan

Don't worry about it. It's a joke among women.
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« Reply #17 on: May 05, 2012, 06:45:55 PM »

That is because people have moved around a lot since 4000 BC. Some of the R1a1a in Anatolia could reflect fairly early IE arrivals e.g. the Mitanni.

Sure, that is a possibility.  However, the dominant haplogroup of all three groups with the longest ties to the region once inhabited by Mitanni, the Assyrians, Armenians, and the Alawites of N Syria (also, some Druze, before migrating south, to their present location, relatively recently), is R-M269.  The Druze and Alawite modals, among non-European populations, are the most similar to the AMH.  

Also, Mitanni words for their chariot-warrior caste, horse, and other words from the Kikkuli text (e.g. "danna"), have survived in Assyrian-Aramaic (marya, maryannu, susa*, dana).  The words mariya and mariyana are now associated with shepherding and agriculture.  

*ašušanni (Mitanni for horse-trainer).  "[V]owels and even whole syllables were often dropped in Neo-Assyrian at the beginning of words."  Dr. Simo Parpola, Assyriologist.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 07:44:12 PM by Humanist » Logged

alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2012, 06:48:56 PM »

@ Alan

Don't worry about it. It's a joke among women.

Eh..OK but it came across as a bit weird.  I am not a sexist sort of guy or someone who needs to be right.  I just want to see a range of opinions minus biases like nationalistic feeling etc.
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Jean M
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« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2012, 06:57:08 PM »

@ Alan

Of course you aren't a sexist Alan.

The joke was summed up in a cartoon I once saw of a group of business men around a conference table and one woman. The chairman is saying "That was quite a good idea, Miss Smith. Would one of you men like to propose it?"

It cracks me up, but I see that it was quite misplaced here. My apologies.
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2012, 07:29:48 PM »

.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 05:02:23 AM by alan trowel hands. » Logged
Richard Rocca
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2012, 08:25:36 PM »

@ Alan

Of course you aren't a sexist Alan.

The joke was summed up in a cartoon I once saw of a group of business men around a conference table and one woman. The chairman is saying "That was quite a good idea, Miss Smith. Would one of you men like to propose it?"

It cracks me up, but I see that it was quite misplaced here. My apologies.

The fact that that joke came to mind as a result of my post implies that you thought that my posting my version of a beaker model was some sort of parallel to that conference scenario.  All I posted was a variant (which is what I called it) of a beaker model which has always been one of only 2 possibilities since the ice age refugia idea has died.  Seeing the beaker model has some new evidence all I wanted was people's take on it.  The devil is in the detail and I am sure we all have different feelings on that detail and their own personal variants on the beaker model.  Maybe I am being touchy but it came across strangely.  Anyway, I appreciate the apology and I appreciate the work you do and service you provide to people interested in this area. 

Alan, while I slightly favor the Mediterranean route slightly over the Danube route, if I was scoring points based on aDNA, I would have the first few rounds all going to the Danube theory. This is based of course on the Late Neolithic Trielles and Otzi samples. However, there are still a lot of rounds to go, so I'm excited to see where this all goes.
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2012, 10:57:44 PM »

Reading this hugely informative and learned thread, and others, I notice equally interesting posts from Maliclavelli, yet for whatever reason his/her contributions do not seem to attract many responses. Anyone able to enlighten me as to why that may be so?
Dear Whoknows, but who knows you?
I am not a “she” but a “he”, exactly that Gioiello Tognoni K1a1b1e. Why do a few reply to me? For many reasons.
1)   Mine are scientific observations and to reply to me one should know enough to understand what I say, and evidently there are a few, also amongst many versed in other fields, who get this (see the famous Nordtvedt, Vizachero, Klyosov, or the popular Jean Manco etc.). But I have many friends here, first of all Richard Stevens, who invited me here after my banishments from Rootsweb, Dna-forums and lastly also Dienekes and Maju evidently don’t like me much. But Richard Rocca had the intelligence to not underestimate my theories.
2)   I am Italian, Tuscan, and evidently Wasp have always some prejudice against us “pizza” and “mandolino”. They cannot say to me “mafia” because I am a Tuscan and of Sicilian I have only the wife.
3)   But the most important reason is that my theories, which I think are winning along all the line, were against the believing of all, also of the plethora of geneticists and researchers who haven’t understood anything of this stuff so far.

On SMGF there are 24 “Wasp” probably K1a1b1e like me with the mutations
16224C
16311C
16519C
73G
263G
315.1C
477C
497T

I am waiting that someone test them for the coding region. After I think that my theory shall be recognized by everyone.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 11:00:44 PM by Maliclavelli » Logged

Maliclavelli


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« Reply #23 on: May 06, 2012, 01:05:59 AM »

I'm strangely reminded of the tale about a mother watching proudly as her son's regiment marched by.  She said to her neighbor: "Oh, just look -- they're all out of step, except my Johnny!"

Anyway, it's an open forum, and we're all entitled to respond to the people or ideas we find interesting.  And not to respond to nonsense; to respond only once to the same assertion, endlessly repeated; to decline to engage in interminable debate of notions we have already considered and dismissed.

And by the way, I play mandolin... or even (for my sins) my 1920s Luigi Giulietti accordion, when my wife is playing her mandolin.  I live in a large metropolitan area, and if people in our audience want "Torna a Surriento," they get it -- no problem.  Two of our three grandsons (all of whom I love) are Italian-American, on their mom's side.  Really -- Italy is not the problem, here.
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« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2012, 02:22:27 AM »

On Mitosearch there are two haplotypes like these ones:
A9ZQZ, Y6FRN
16224C 16311C 16519C 73G 263G 315.1C 477C 497T

I have put XWAU7 with also 16189C.

Another haplotype with 16259Y I haven’t put on Mitosearch because the heteroplasmy isn’t considered.

These all people have an ancestry from the Isles.

To Razyn I say that what he says Jean Manco has said frequently, also lastly on Dna-forums, and asked that an answer of mine were censured (she offended me, I replied with irony), but now is searching to save her theories with these last “Italian corridor”. I am grieving at her.

About your origin (Hulan, Holan? There was a Czech poet) I’ll say something definitive next.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 02:23:19 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

Maliclavelli


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MtDNA: K1a1b1e

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