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Author Topic: R1b-L51 from the West  (Read 30035 times)
Mike Walsh
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« Reply #50 on: May 07, 2012, 07:19:47 PM »

.... Per Myres et al(2010) R1b-M269(xL23) is found as follows:

Macedonia (n=79) 5.063% (100% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)      

Kosovo(n=114) 7.89% (37.5% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)      
....)      
...
I have a feeling that the Western Balkans(i.e. Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia) would have a high variance for R1b-M269(xL23).

It is interesting that Kosovo has a relatively high number of M269xL23.

I thought I'd do some quick reading and found that in Roman times this was
Dardania. The region was inhabited by Illyrians, Celts and Thracians.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2012, 07:25:24 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #51 on: May 07, 2012, 08:12:20 PM »

Kosovo was part of the Ottoman Empire from 1455-1912. I don't know how much of a y-dna impression the Turks made, but it probably wasn't zero.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2012, 08:12:37 PM by rms2 » Logged

JeanL
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« Reply #52 on: May 07, 2012, 08:26:45 PM »

All I can say is that in the following subset of Europeans:

Romania-5
Italy-3,
Greece-2, 
Germany-2,
Switzerland-2
Hungary-1
Poland-1
Slovenia-1


The variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is 0.2706.

While on the following subset of West Asians:

Turkey-10
Iran-1
Tasabaran-1
Bashkirs-1


The variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is 0.2385

What I found interesting was how significant R1b-M269(xL23) is in the Western Balkans as a percentage of all R1b-M269 found there:

Western Balkans (n=633)

R1b-M269+ 58/633 or 9.16%

R1b-M269(xL23) 21/633 or 3.32%

R1b-M269(xL23) as a percentage of all R1b-M269+ 21/58 or 36.21%

For the record this is the distribution of the 21 R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes in the Western Balkans:

Kosovo-9
Serbia-5
Macedonia-4
Herzegovina-2
Bosnia-1


« Last Edit: May 07, 2012, 08:53:08 PM by JeanL » Logged
Mike Walsh
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« Reply #53 on: May 08, 2012, 08:29:14 AM »

All I can say is that in the following subset of Europeans:

Romania-5
Italy-3,
Greece-2,  
Germany-2,
Switzerland-2
Hungary-1
Poland-1
Slovenia-1


The variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is 0.2706.

While on the following subset of West Asians:

Turkey-10
Iran-1
Tasabaran-1
Bashkirs-1


The variance of R1b-M269(xL23) is 0.2385

I don't know how much we can make of such a limited of people and a limited number of STRs, I think you said 10. These academic studies are really frustrating in their limited depth of testing.

What I found interesting was how significant R1b-M269(xL23) is in the Western Balkans as a percentage of all R1b-M269 found there:

Western Balkans (n=633)

R1b-M269+ 58/633 or 9.16%

R1b-M269(xL23) 21/633 or 3.32%

R1b-M269(xL23) as a percentage of all R1b-M269+ 21/58 or 36.21%

For the record this is the distribution of the 21 R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes in the Western Balkans:

Kosovo-9
Serbia-5
Macedonia-4
Herzegovina-2
Bosnia-1

The northern parts of the Balkan Peninsula is fairly mountainous, right?   I don't know the terrain there.  Is this a good place for a group to find safety in isolation?

Also, what should we make of the results in the Western Balkans versus Eastern Balkans?  Is this related to the terrain, the cultures, or something else?
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 08:41:09 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #54 on: May 08, 2012, 10:39:29 AM »


I don't know how much we can make of such a limited of people and a limited number of STRs, I think you said 10. These academic studies are really frustrating in their limited depth of testing.

Mike, I’m not sure the number of people is limited. Given the scarcity of R1b-M269(xL23), one should expect to find a small number of people carrying that paragroup, even in large samples. I agree that they should had made use of all samples that were R1b-M269(xL23), and not just 31. Nonetheless, this gives a clear insight that the R1b-M269(xL23) paragroup in Europe (not including the Western Balkans, Crete, Russia, and Ukraine) appears to be more diverse and to have accumulated more variance than the one found in Turkey, Iran, Caucasus and Central Asia. I sincerely did not expect these results when I was running the test. I thought that just like R1b-L23(xL51), R1b-M269(xL23) was going to have more variance outside of Europe, but much to my surprise it didn’t. While, I would highly recommend to wait until more studies bring about more data, perhaps with more STRs, this is somewhat indicative that there might have been multiple migrations, and there is a possibility that say R1b-L23 folks might have wiped out their close(Say R1b-M269(xL23)) ancestors in Western Europe.


The northern parts of the Balkan Peninsula is fairly mountainous, right?   I don't know the terrain there.  Is this a good place for a group to find safety in isolation?

Also, what should we make of the results in the Western Balkans versus Eastern Balkans?  Is this related to the terrain, the cultures, or something else?

Yeah, I always hear of the Dinaric Alps as being a mountainous region. As for Eastern Balkans: Is there any info about the R1b-M269 subclades found in Bulgaria, Turkish Thrace, or Macedonian Greece?
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 10:42:37 AM by JeanL » Logged
Mike Walsh
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« Reply #55 on: May 08, 2012, 11:57:38 AM »


I don't know how much we can make of such a limited of people and a limited number of STRs, I think you said 10. These academic studies are really frustrating in their limited depth of testing.

Mike, I’m not sure the number of people is limited. Given the scarcity of R1b-M269(xL23), one should expect to find a small number of people carrying that paragroup, even in large samples......

My comment was just from a pure math, observational perspective. In one group you calculated variance for 10 STRs for 17 Europeans and in another for 13 West Asians, 10 of which were from Anatolia.

I'm just saying I've had bad luck with a limited number of STRs as far as seeing consistent results vis-a-vie haplogroup relative aging and consistency (one or two aberrant STRs impacting the results.)

While, I would highly recommend to wait until more studies bring about more data, perhaps with more STRs, this is somewhat indicative that there might have been multiple migrations, and there is a possibility that say R1b-L23 folks might have wiped out their close(Say R1b-M269(xL23)) ancestors in Western Europe.

I agree, we need more studies and data. I'd love to see more out of SE Europe, Anatolia and the Near East.  Of course, there'll never be enough.

and there is a possibility that say R1b-L23 folks might have wiped out their close(Say R1b-M269(xL23)) ancestors in Western Europe.

Where do you think R-M269 originated?

.... As for Eastern Balkans: Is there any info about the R1b-M269 subclades found in Bulgaria, Turkish Thrace, or Macedonian Greece?

I don't think we find much of the L11 downstream types there. I don't know.  I see some U152 and U106 in Romania.

http://www.familytreedna.com/public/Romania/default.aspx?section=yresults
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/bulgariandna/default.aspx?section=yresults
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/ArmeniaDNAProject/default.aspx?section=yresults
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/turkey/default.aspx?section=yresults
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 12:04:05 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #56 on: May 08, 2012, 12:06:30 PM »

Is anybody in touch with the Romanian (by descent anyway) guy who used to post as Alexandromir on DNA-Forums?  Kit #149471 at FTDNA.  My only direct contact with him was via PM there, in January.  He had plans (and funding) to do a substantial amount of "Carpathian" DNA sampling this summer, mainly in Romania, and maybe Hungary.
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« Reply #57 on: May 08, 2012, 12:17:48 PM »


Where do you think R-M269 originated?

I have no idea, but all I can say is that based on the data from Myres et al(2010) the variance for various paragroups shows the following pattern:

Paragroup----------------More variance======================>Least variance

R1b-M269(xL23) (n=30)---------Europe (n=17, var=0.2706)--------West Asia(n=13, var=0.2385)

R1b-L23(xM412) (n=210)--------Caucasus(n=32, var=0.3063)-------Anatolia(n=58, var=0.2828)---Western Europe(n=29, var=0.2759)---Eastern Europe(n=57,var=0.2070)-------Central Asia(n=34, var=0.1029)

R1b-M412(xL11) (n=14), 13 haplotypes are found European, only 1-found in Turkey, so I have no way of comparing variance.

R1b-L11(xS116,U106) (n=23) all found in Europe.

R1b-M269(xL23) is very significant in the Western Balkans, R1b-L23(xL51) is very significant in Northeastern Caucasus, and also Turkey. It is also significant in Bashkirs, but it has very low variance, which leads me to believe that it is very recent.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 12:20:37 PM by JeanL » Logged
Richard Rocca
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« Reply #58 on: May 08, 2012, 12:46:24 PM »

Is anybody in touch with the Romanian (by descent anyway) guy who used to post as Alexandromir on DNA-Forums?  Kit #149471 at FTDNA.  My only direct contact with him was via PM there, in January.  He had plans (and funding) to do a substantial amount of "Carpathian" DNA sampling this summer, mainly in Romania, and maybe Hungary.

His kit is in the FTDNA Romania project (http://www.familytreedna.com/public/romania), so the admins should be able to email him.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #59 on: May 08, 2012, 12:48:48 PM »

... R1b-M269(xL23) is very significant in the Western Balkans, R1b-L23(xL51) is very significant in Northeastern Caucasus, and also Turkey. It is also significant in Bashkirs, but it has very low variance, which leads me to believe that it is very recent.  

I'll point to an earlier reply.  L23xL11 seems to have significantly more diversity  in the eastern half of Europe + SW Asia than the western side - it looks like about 50% greater.  The below is using a decent sized set of STRs including with Heinila's "linear" ones broken out.

These are very broad numbers so this is just for an initial look.
...
 I just used the east/west divide as everything east of Germany, Austria, Cisalpine Gaul in the "east."  I included the Italian peninsula in the east, though, what I call the East Mediterranean. (EDIT: To be clear, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Scandinavia/Finland and N. Italy are in the "west" in my broad categories)

On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.50 [Linear 36]  (N=181)   
L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.53 [Mixed 49]  (N=181)   

L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)   

L23xL11 West________:  Var=0.97 [Linear 36]  (N=38)   
L23xL11 West________:  Var=1.13 [Mixed 49]  (N=38)   


SW Asia itself is pulling the "East" diversity higher.  Although the differences are not as great - maybe out 10% higher so perhaps just coincidentally higher.


L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.73 [Mixed 49]  (N=96)   
L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.76 [Linear 36]  (N=96)
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 12:52:26 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #60 on: May 08, 2012, 01:01:18 PM »



I was hoping more for data on paragroups R1b-M269(xL23), R1b-L23(xL51), and L1b-L51(xL11).

As for Romania, and Hungary, I have the data from Myres et al(2010) for both of those places. I have no data however for Bulgaria, or Turkish Thrace, or Eastern Greece.

Romania(n=330)

R1b-M269+ 40
R1b-M269(xL23) 9
R1b-ML23(xL51) 15
R1b-L51(xL11) 0
R1b-L11(xP312,U106) 0
R1b-U106(xU198) 4
R1b-U198 0
R1b-P312(xL21,U152) 4
R1b-L21(xM222) 2
R1b-M222 0
R1b-U152 6

Hungary(n=113)

R1b-M269+ 23
R1b-M269(xL23) 1
R1b-ML23(xL51) 7
R1b-L51(xL11) 1
R1b-L11(xP312,U106) 0
R1b-U106(xU198) 4
R1b-U198 0
R1b-P312(xL21,U152) 5
R1b-L21(xM222) 1
R1b-M222 0
R1b-U152 4

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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #61 on: May 08, 2012, 01:02:28 PM »

... On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

....
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)


SW Asia itself is pulling the "East" diversity higher.  Although the differences are not as great - maybe out 10% higher so perhaps just coincidentally higher.


L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.73 [Mixed 49]  (N=96)   
L23xL11 SW Asia_____:  Var=1.76 [Linear 36]  (N=96)


Well, on second thought I'm not sure the difference is insignificant between East Europe and SW Asia.  I broke out out Europe versus SW Asia from "East" so we could see the difference.

L23xL11 E Europe____:  Var=1.15 [Mixed 49]  (N=35)
L23xL11 E Europe____:  Var=1.08 [Linear 36]  (N=35)  


Then number of haplotypes is getting lower, 35, towards the danger zone, 25, but usually that has been good enough for consistent results.

I think SW Asia has significantly higher diversity than Eastern Europe.  Still, this is just a preliminary look. Nothing conclusive.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 01:06:09 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #62 on: May 08, 2012, 01:09:14 PM »


I'll point to an earlier reply.  L23xL11 seems to have significantly more diversity  in the eastern half of Europe + SW Asia than the western side - it looks like about 50% greater.  The below is using a decent sized set of STRs including with Heinila's "linear" ones broken out.

These are very broad numbers so this is just for an initial look.
...
 I just used the east/west divide as everything east of Germany, Austria, Cisalpine Gaul in the "east."  I included the Italian peninsula in the east, though, what I call the East Mediterranean. (EDIT: To be clear, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Scandinavia/Finland and N. Italy are in the "west" in my broad categories)

On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.50 [Linear 36]  (N=181)   
L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.53 [Mixed 49]  (N=181)   

L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)   

L23xL11 West________:  Var=0.97 [Linear 36]  (N=38)   
L23xL11 West________:  Var=1.13 [Mixed 49]  (N=38)   


Well that kind of contradicts the results of Myres et al(2010), where Western Europe(i.e n=29, var=0.2759) has more variance on L23(xL51) than Eastern Europe(i.e. n=57, var=0.2070). Moreover your sample size for Western Europe isn’t significantly greater than Myres et al(2010) (i.e. n=29). Also, why are you sampling together Eastern Europe with SW Asia? In any case, I’m sorry, but I’ll take the data collected randomly from studies over the data on the FTDNA projects any day. I don’t know why the discrepancy is arising, but certainly something is off here, when Eastern Europe has more variance than Western Europe on FTDNA Projects, but on the Myres et al(2010) study the opposite is the case.

« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 01:10:13 PM by JeanL » Logged
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« Reply #63 on: May 08, 2012, 01:17:00 PM »

Mike, if Western European R-L23 has generated all the European subclades and the Middle Eastern one nothing (but of course amongst them there are some subclades, which wouldn’t permit, after having been individuated, to put all them together), it is clear that they have more variance, but it doesn’t demonstrate anything.
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« Reply #64 on: May 08, 2012, 01:28:09 PM »


I'll point to an earlier reply.  L23xL11 seems to have significantly more diversity  in the eastern half of Europe + SW Asia than the western side - it looks like about 50% greater.  The below is using a decent sized set of STRs including with Heinila's "linear" ones broken out.

These are very broad numbers so this is just for an initial look.
...
 I just used the east/west divide as everything east of Germany, Austria, Cisalpine Gaul in the "east."  I included the Italian peninsula in the east, though, what I call the East Mediterranean. (EDIT: To be clear, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Scandinavia/Finland and N. Italy are in the "west" in my broad categories)

On the scale below, 1.0 = R-P312.

L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.50 [Linear 36]  (N=181)   
L23xL11 All__________:  Var=1.53 [Mixed 49]  (N=181)   

L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.61 [Mixed 49]  (N=131)   
L23xL11 East________:  Var=1.63 [Linear 36]  (N=131)   

L23xL11 West________:  Var=0.97 [Linear 36]  (N=38)   
L23xL11 West________:  Var=1.13 [Mixed 49]  (N=38)   


Well that kind of contradicts the results of Myres et al(2010), where Western Europe(i.e var=0.2759) has more variance on L23(xL51) than Eastern Europe(i.e. var=0.2070).

Not kind of, it does contradict what data you are tabulating from Myres.  You saw my comments earlier on those variances you calculated. 10 STRs is not enough to be reliable.  You once commented that you thought my criticism of Busby's methods were unbalanced versus Myres and Balaresque.  No, actually I think the Myres and Barlaresque data is way too limiting also.  Not enough STRs.  Those variance calculations based on 10 STRs are highly suspect.

Many people think my calculations based on 49 non-multicopy/non-null markers and on 36 "linear" markers are suspect.  I think they are right! to be suspicious, particularly on geographically based categories.  However, 10 STRs is just way too few.  10 could be enough, but this is the problem - An aberration or two in the data or STR behavior can provide inconsistent results.

Moreover your sample size for Western Europe isn’t significantly greater than Myres et al(2010) (i.e. n=29). Also, why are you sampling together Eastern Europe with SW Asia?

I just threw them together to get the number of haplotypes up and evaluate the general east vs west.  No matter, as you can see, I broke SW Asia out and just broke out East Europe (earlier today) as well now.  All of the data is posted on the P312 Yahoo Group.  I want people to tear into it so have a go. I think all of the R1b L11- data is from FTDNA, no Ysearch (except what Mac.. gave me), which I think the academics use occasionally.  I have no pet theories.  I was happy being a Cro-Magnon man. Being a Beaker guy is okay too and there is nothing wrong with a Cucuteni-Tripolye or Iranian farmer.

In any case, I’m sorry, but I’ll take the data collected randomly from studies over the data on the FTDNA projects any day. I don’t know why the discrepancy is arising, but certainly something is off here, when Eastern Europe has more variance than Western Europe on FTDNA Projects, but on the Myres et al(2010) study the opposite is the case.  

Let me paraphrase Dienekes..  He's said "STRs s%#$k".  I'll go with "not enough STRs s%#$k." The academics' use of short haplotypes is disappointing, to say the least.

Sample the data anyway you want.  The academics are getting better about use the greater depth of SNP results, but are still way behind with their use of short haplotypes.

I know enough about market demographics and statistics to tell you that we do not have a good cross-sectional randomly selected sample, period.  The academics don't. No one does. It's not anyone's fault. It just takes money.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 03:13:46 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #65 on: May 08, 2012, 01:50:42 PM »

Mike, if Western European R-L23 has generated all the European subclades
Can I disagree on a nuance?  Western European R-L11 has generated the bulk of the European R1b.

... and the Middle Eastern one nothing (but of course amongst them there are some subclades, which wouldn’t permit, after having been individuated, to put all them together), it is clear that they have more variance, but it doesn’t demonstrate anything.

I agree with you, I've demonstrated or proven nothing. I've just provided a few more puzzle pieces to consider.

The SW Asian R-L23 did produce descendants.... but at least the ones that stayed home (if it was home) had a tough time of it.  Struggling with one civilization after another in the Near East apparently was dangerous work.  On the other hand, packing up your tools and cattle and heading into the "backwards" (less advanced) territories of Europe may have been easier.  Perhaps the Italian Peninsula was a rough place too, but Cisalpine and Transalpine Gaul may have had greener grass.  The Isles, Amorica and Iberia may have been a picnic (or place of last refuge.)
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 03:07:47 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #66 on: May 08, 2012, 03:07:02 PM »

Mikewww writes: “Can I disagree on a nuance?” Yes, of course. You never offended me as someone is doing. You are expressing an idea and I have expressed another one. We both know that next proofs will decide who is right and who is wrong.

“Western European R-L11 has generated the bulk of the European R1”.
Yes, but from which L-51 was generated L-11? It seems clear that it was an European one (Italy or France, we are here and not elsewhere). And which R-L23 generated L-11? I think it is more likely to think to an European one. Why if it was an Eastern one, it didn’t generate it in Middle East?
Has European R-L23 come from Middle East? Perhaps, but which proofs have you? Are you sure that there was an R-L23 in Middle East when it was certainly in Europe if it generated here L11? Where are the proofs? It is all supposed, based on nothing. We shall see. Now we have an R1b1b2* (at least) in Europe 4600 years ago. Where is a similar sample in Middle East? Why who is testing ancient bones there doesn’t publish his results?
Look at the last paper on mtDNA I published on its thread. Times are more ancient than you are thinking, very more ancient.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 03:27:14 PM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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« Reply #67 on: May 08, 2012, 03:21:54 PM »

I was happy being a Cro-Magnon man. Being a Beaker guy is okay too and there is nothing wrong with a Cucuteni-Tripolye or Iranian farmer.

Well, I don't know about you, but I am neither a Cro-Magnon, nor a Beaker, nor anything else kind of guy. I'm an american, and that's about it. I definitely would like to know about European prehistory, as it is the place where my folks came from. However, that doesn't mean that if my folks came from Antartica 8000 years ago, I would commit suicide. On the contrary, I would then try to find out how my folks lived in Antartica 8000 ago.


I know enough about market demographics and statistics to tell you that we do not have a good cross-sectional randomly selected sample, period.  The academics don't. No one does. It's not anyone's fault. It just takes money.

What I care for the most, is consistency. Even if 10 STRs are used, if R1b-M269(xL23) consistently comes out with higher variance in x place, then chances are, they can’t all be flukes, especially if they are different randomly collected samples.  For example:

How do I know Basques are 80%+ R1b?

Because in multiple studies they have appeared as 80%+ R1b.

Do you know how many Basque folk have been studied?

Probably less than 2000, that isn’t even remotely close to half of a percent of the Basque population!

Why do I assert that ethnic Basques are 80%+R1b?

Because I trust that if multiple randomly collected samples of ethnic Basque yielded 80%+R1b, then it is very likely that it will be 80%+ in all the population.

The first big no-no when analyzing FTDNA should be, that the Basque DNA Project data used by folks like Klyosov was highly distinctive(R1b too low, E3b too high, J too high, even Q1a3a is found there) from what has been observed in academia(At least last time I checked).
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 03:29:39 PM by JeanL » Logged
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« Reply #68 on: May 08, 2012, 03:35:58 PM »

Mikewww writes: “Can I disagree on a nuance?” Yes, of course. You never offended me as someone is doing. You are expressing an idea and I have expressed another one. We both know that next proofs will decide who is right and who is wrong.

Thank you. I appreciate that.  I hope you see that I don't really care who is right or who is wrong, I just want to know what is right... what really happened.

“Western European R-L11 has generated the bulk of the European R1”.
Yes, but from which L-51 was generated L-11?

This is a difficult challenge. We do not what the ancestral alleles were for the L51 that generated L11. My guess is that they had 426=12, rather than 13, since L23 has 426=12 and L11 has 426=12 as do P312 and U106. I surmise that the L51 remnants we see today were there of a different branch than L11's ancestors.

It seem clear that it was an European one (Italy or France, we are here and not elsewhere).  

Why is that clear?  I'm not in Europe. I'm in Texas, but I'm pretty sure my ancestors came from Ireland and before that, possibly Wales.  People are mobile and we are talking about thousands of years of opportunity.

And which R-L23 generated L-11? I think it is more likely to think to an European one. Why if it was an Eastern one, it didn’t generate it in Middle East?

I don't know. The R-L11's L51* brothers may be gone, not able to survive.  A very, very high percentage of Y lineages go extinct. This should not be viewed as unusual.

Has European R-L23 come from Middle East? Perhaps, but which proofs have you? Are you sure that there was an R-L23 in Middle East when it was certainly in Europe if it generated here L11? Where are the proofs? It is all supposed, based on nothing.

As I've said, I have no proof, but the population genetics scientists use the phylogenetic tree positioning and diversity as a mechanisms to track migrations.  If L23xL11 is much more diverse than L11, and if L23xL11 is more diverse in SW Asia than in Europe, that's just the data we have. It could be red herring, but it might be instructive.

We shall see. Now we have an R1b1b2* (at least) in Europe 4600 years ago. Where is a similar sample in Middle East? Why who is testing ancient bones there doesn’t publish his results?  

We probably don't have more ancient DNA tested in the Near East because it costs money, there are government approvals and controls, logistics, and difficulties (i.e. wars) that may make this a bit of a challenge.  Perhaps we do have aDNA from the Near East in the way of King Tut. It isn't being released (um... governments) so it is not "official" but the indications are there.  There probably isn't that much R1b to found in the Near East anyway.  As I've said, it may have been a tough place to survive in.

Look at the last paper on mtDNA I published on its thread. Times are more ancient than you are thinking, very more ancient.  

Paternal lineages do not align very well with maternal lineages. This very easy to see just by looking at Y and mt haplogroup distribution maps.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 03:39:00 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #69 on: May 08, 2012, 03:53:59 PM »

I was happy being a Cro-Magnon man. Being a Beaker guy is okay too and there is nothing wrong with a Cucuteni-Tripolye or Iranian farmer.

Well, I don't know about you, but I am neither a Cro-Magnon, nor a Beaker, nor anything else kind of guy. I'm an american, and that's about it.

Okay, you are quite correct. I should have been more articulate in explaining I was happy thinking my deep paternal ancestry was of a Cro-Magnon type, or farmer, or plains man, or whatever, etc.  You might have to read between the lines, but all I was communicating was I don't care which ancestry it was, I'm just curious to know the truth.


I know enough about market demographics and statistics to tell you that we do not have a good cross-sectional randomly selected sample, period.  The academics don't. No one does. It's not anyone's fault. It just takes money.

How do I know Basques are 80%+ R1b?
Because in multiple studies they have appeared as 80%+ R1b.

Do you know how many Basque folk have been studied?
Probably less than 2000, that isn’t even remotely close to half of a percent of the Basque population!

Why do I assert that ethnic Basques are 80%+R1b?
Because I trust that if multiple randomly collected samples of ethnic Basque yielded 80%+R1b, then it is very likely that it will be 80%+ in all the population.

The first big no-no when analyzing FTDNA should be, that the Basque DNA Project data used by folks like Klyosov was highly distinctive(R1b too low, E3b too high, J too high, even Q1a3a is found there) from what has been observed in academia(At least last time I checked).

I'm not at all saying the FTDNA data is adequately representative of Eurasia. I've never declared or attempted to do scientific sampling of their data.  We just don't have enough data in the non-Isles areas, period.  The academics try to assemble the data, but end up cobbling it together and treating it inconsistently in the process... all the while some regions are just plain sorely under-represented.

Do you really have that same level of trust that all of the ethnicities of Kosovo have been as randomly, comprehensively scientifically sampled as the Basques?  What about all of old Yugoslavian territories and all of the Balkan Peninsula?

How about Iran or Moldavia?  These are multi-ethnic countries with a variety of terrains and history.  Sampling multi-ethnic territories requires a different standard that sampling an isolated, surviving culture like the Basques.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 04:53:06 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #70 on: May 08, 2012, 04:00:43 PM »

Mikeww writes: “We probably don't have more ancient DNA tested in the Near East because it costs money”.

From a letter of W. Hurst of the mtDNA K project at FTDNA:

Hi all,
As previously announced, there is a new scientific paper by Behar et al. (2012b) that transmitted 4,265 mtDNA full sequences to the GenBank database, with 4,222 of those sequences coming from FTDNA customers [tested again like clones by the Molecular Medicine Laboratory, Rambam Health Care Campus, Efron 9 st, Haifa 31096, Israel] who had previously consented to their use for science. Of those sequences, 460 were from haplogroup K, mostly from members of our K Project. All of the sequences were simultaneously used to create new and revised subclades on Build 14 of the PhyloTree. Eventually, FTDNA will change members’ subclade designations where appropriate […]
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« Reply #71 on: May 08, 2012, 04:04:02 PM »

Is anybody in touch with the Romanian (by descent anyway) guy who used to post as Alexandromir on DNA-Forums?  Kit #149471 at FTDNA.  My only direct contact with him was via PM there, in January.  He had plans (and funding) to do a substantial amount of "Carpathian" DNA sampling this summer, mainly in Romania, and maybe Hungary.

I sent him a pm, with a link to this thread.
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« Reply #72 on: May 08, 2012, 04:42:50 PM »

What I care for the most, is consistency. Even if 10 STRs are used, if R1b-M269(xL23) consistently comes out with higher variance in x place, then chances are, they can’t all be flukes, especially if they are different randomly collected samples.

Remember, in your R-L23* examples one group was only of 13 people and the other of 17 people. 10 of the 13 people in that group were all from Turkey so that wasn't very representative.

13 people with 10 STRs to represent all of SW Asia???

I'm glad you think that consistency has become more important.  Back on the Busby article "The peopling..." thread I had been complaining about how Busby (and for that matter I think Myres and Balaresque too to some extent) treated the data by region inconsistently you replied...
http://www.worldfamilies.net/forum/index.php?topic=10031.msg129923#msg129923
...
Of course it seems right that the Irish “resampled” variance is higher than it was on the Balaresque et al. sample, in fact, is not a question whether it should be higher or lower, it is a question whether it is more accurate  or not? My answer: yes it is by far more accurate as they actually took the time to resample 10000 random sets.

I agree that consistency is an element of accuracy which is why I don't think data by region should be treated different by region. There is a need for scientific design for the sampling process, one that can be cross-sectionally checked.

I agree that accuracy is needed.  If a result can't be repeated with consistency then we know at least some of the results are inaccurate.  Accuracy also requires precision, at least some.   There is little precision in 10 STRs.   I can start to get consistent, correlated (with phylogenetic tree) variance results when using over 25 STRs and over 25 haplotypes.

I think we could go back and forth on variance so let's do that over on the STR wars thread if you want to. People reading this thread probably have enough info to decide how to consider the data. So out of courtesy for others..
« Last Edit: May 08, 2012, 05:01:24 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #73 on: May 08, 2012, 04:47:30 PM »

Mikeww writes: “We probably don't have more ancient DNA tested in the Near East because it costs money”.

From a letter of W. Hurst of the mtDNA K project at FTDNA:
Hi all,
As previously announced, there is a new scientific paper by Behar et al. (2012b) that transmitted 4,265 mtDNA full sequences to the GenBank database, with 4,222 of those sequences coming from FTDNA customers ....

That's great stuff but what does it have to do with ancient DNA?  I think they are talking about current FTDNA customer samples.
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« Reply #74 on: May 08, 2012, 05:05:59 PM »

I'm not at all saying the FTDNA data is adequately representative of Eurasia. I've never declared or attempted to do scientific sampling of their data.  We just don't have enough data in the non-Isles areas, period.  The academics try to assemble the data, but end up cobbling it together and treating it inconsistently in the process... all the while some regions are just plain sorely under-represented.

Do you really have that same level of trust that all of the ethnicities of Kosovo have been as randomly, comprehensively scientifically sampled as the Basques?  What about all of old Yugoslavian territories and all of the Balkan Peninsula?

How about Iran or Moldavia?  These are multi-ethnic countries with a variety of terrains and history.  Sampling multi-ethnic territories requires a different standard that sampling an isolated, surviving culture like the Basques.

Well I’m not sure, I work with what I got, and like I said, I trust the randomly collected samples of scientific studies a lot more than the project at FTDNA. You can agree or disagree with that, all I’m saying is my opinion.
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