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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #25 on: May 04, 2012, 01:48:25 PM »

Malagodi has been tested for 67 markers and you may put him in your spreadsheet. He gets other interesting mutations in very slow markers, and this demonstrates, I think, that the orther values "mutated around the modal".
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« Reply #26 on: May 04, 2012, 01:51:34 PM »

There are many R-L51 I found on SMGF and put on ySearch, but of course, beyond DYS426=13, they haven't been SNP tested.
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« Reply #27 on: May 04, 2012, 02:02:57 PM »

We do have L51* folks identified, but I think they are more of a remnant subclade than a scattering.  Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just providing some information.  Will do more.  I need to look up some of the Ysearch IDs associated with the kits.

By remnant, I agree, they seem to have had success only in S. France and N Italy. Their offspring on the other-hand went in all directions. The fat that France is central to western Europe would explain the similar variance that Busby calculated.

I want to add a cautionary note related to the notion of descendancy.  The L51* modern folks are clearly just modern folks.  It is definitely true that the father of the first L11+ man was a L51* man, but as we know he lived long ago.  Of course, where is a big question.

Frequency is not necessarily a great indicator of origin so a higher frequency in the south of France or north of Italy is another piece to the puzzle, but it is not conclusive as is nothing I'm going to say here is either.

I mentioned earlier that Peter H has put me on to a trail of thinking.  We are just speculating, here, right?  I don't know if this is correct but it is another alternative.  Let me throw in the caveats that I criticize everyone else on - 1) one STR is not enough, albeit 426 is very slow and 2) a paragroup may not be a valid group to analyze statistically as it is missing a large portion of its population.

The speculative alternative is based on the notion that 426=11 is the ancestral value for M269. It is the modal for M269xL23.  A mutation step of 1, 426=12, is the modal for L23xL51.  At the same time, the clear modal for P312, U106 and L11 as a whole is 426=12 so the hypothesis is that 426=12 is the ancestral for L11. That leaves modern L51xL11 as the odd man out with 426=13.

At the same time you can find among L23xL51 very WAMH-like haplotypes. They would, of course, have 426=12, like L11. Hence, this speculation is that the first L51+ man inherited 426=12 from his L21xL51 ancestral lineage. Most of the first L51+ guys' early branches died off.  One that survived, albeit relatively weakly, took the 426=13 mutation that we see today.  Of course, one of the early L51+ 426=12 lineages had a little better luck and produced first L11 man.

In this scenario, we don't where the L51+ 426=12 that was pre-L11 came from.  Since we are speculating, as I think most of you know, Peter H has noticed (and its true) that some of the WAMH like folks that are L23xL51 people are Assyrians or Armenians.  Granted these are modern people, so this could be just convergence.   One thing that is interesting about the L23xL51 that are WAMH-like, after you get away from Anatolia and the Assyrians, you find a couple of guys in Switzerland. Yes, there are people from Greece, Kosovo and Italy too that fit this bill.

« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 02:06:34 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #28 on: May 04, 2012, 02:08:05 PM »

Please ignore, question already answered.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 02:26:17 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #29 on: May 04, 2012, 02:41:38 PM »


I want to add a cautionary note related to the notion of descendancy.  The L51* modern folks are clearly just modern folks.  It is definitely true that the father of the first L11+ man was a L51* man, but as we know he lived long ago.  Of course, where is a big question.

Frequency is not necessarily a great indicator of origin so a higher frequency in the south of France or north of Italy is another piece to the puzzle, but it is not conclusive as is nothing I'm going to say here is either.

I mentioned earlier that Peter H has put me on to a trail of thinking.  We are just speculating, here, right?  I don't know if this is correct but it is another alternative.  Let me throw in the caveats that I criticize everyone else on - 1) one STR is not enough, albeit 426 is very slow and 2) a paragroup may not be a valid group to analyze statistically as it is missing a large portion of its population.

The speculative alternative is based on the notion that 426=11 is the ancestral value for M269. It is the modal for M269xL23.  A mutation step of 1, 426=12, is the modal for L23xL51.  At the same time, the clear modal for P312, U106 and L11 as a whole is 426=12 so the hypothesis is that 426=12 is the ancestral for L11. That leaves modern L51xL11 as the odd man out with 426=13.

At the same time you can find among L23xL51 very WAMH-like haplotypes. They would, of course, have 426=12, like L11. Hence, this speculation is that the first L51+ man inherited 426=12 from his L21xL51 ancestral lineage. Most of the first L51+ guys' early branches died off.  One that survived, albeit relatively weakly, took the 426=13 mutation that we see today.  Of course, one of the early L51+ 426=12 lineages had a little better luck and produced first L11 man.

In this scenario, we don't where the L51+ 426=12 that was pre-L11 came from.  Since we are speculating, as I think most of you know, Peter H has noticed (and its true) that some of the WAMH like folks that are L23xL51 people are Assyrians or Armenians.  Granted these are modern people, so this could be just convergence.   One thing that is interesting about the L23xL51 that are WAMH-like, after you get away from Anatolia and the Assyrians, you find a couple of guys in Switzerland. Yes, there are people from Greece, Kosovo and Italy too that fit this bill.


All of your cautions are valid and should go without saying. However, as you know, none of this should be hypothesized without looking at other factors:

1. Yes, modern L51* is scattered, but the scattering is very lopsided and heavily in favor of France and Italy. As for the outliers, they are just that, "outliers". If we tested 1000 guys from Yemen, I'm sure every SNP on the planet would be represented.
2. All P312 branches seem to be Franco-something or other: U152 is Franco-Italian, L21 is Franco-British, DF27 is Franco-Iberian.
3. As you have seen, U152 has higher variance than even P312* and of course U152 has its center in south-central Europe. In a swift migration scenario, you think L51 was far behind? Like I've said, I've seen zero evidence of a non-European origin for L51 and aparently neither did Natalie Myres and co.
4. The linguistic similarities between Celtic and Italic are such that a shared ancestry has been debated for decades (proto-Celto-Italic). Both of these languages left a trace in Iberia as well.
5. Guess which ancient language is considered both Celtic and Italic, albeit a little more Celtic than Italic? Ligurian. Guess where Ligurian was spoken? Yup, S.E. France and NW Italy.

There is just too much smoke close to the Rhone and the Western Alps to think this all a coincidence.
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« Reply #30 on: May 05, 2012, 09:12:25 PM »

Here is my L51* (aka S167 and M412) frequency map based on Busby et al. (2011) data.  


Click here to see the larger map: http://www.u152.org/images/stories/L51_Map_with_Neolithic_Path_003.png
....

This is a question that I don't have a strong opinion, but it is challenge to what type of frequency should be considered.  

The question is: Would it be more valuable to look at R1b subcomponents, i.e. R-L51*, as percentage of total R1b rather than as of the total population?

I remember that Vince Vizachero created a couple of diagrams in the old ht35 thread where he showed the frequency of various types of R1b (such as L11+ versus L11-) as percentage of total R1b, not the total population.   What this does is highlight the mix of R1b across the geographies. If you think, like I do, that frequency can be misleading and is of less value than diversity then it helpful to look at the the mix of the subclades of R1b against total R1b.

R1b in Eastern Europe and in SW Asia is of very low frequency so when the Myres data came out and I tried to depict how R1b subclades were spread across Europe I used a series of pie charts by region (broad ones) where the items like L11* were shown as percentage of R1b.  I wonder if that would change our perspective?  It would amplify where small components, like L51*, show up but R1b is a bit light.

Since I don't think absolute frequency is that important, I lean towards this method of visualization as being valuable.   I do like your frequency maps and appreciate the work. It is very helpful.  It's just that there are many ways to display data.  Some forms of display (charting) may give you answers to different questions than what are being asked....   good, bad, or ugly - I think about this kind of stuff in my profession.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 09:15:54 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #31 on: May 06, 2012, 11:24:57 AM »


I want to add a cautionary note related to the notion of descendancy.  The L51* modern folks are clearly just modern folks.  It is definitely true that the father of the first L11+ man was a L51* man, but as we know he lived long ago.  Of course, where is a big question.

Frequency is not necessarily a great indicator of origin so a higher frequency in the south of France or north of Italy is another piece to the puzzle, but it is not conclusive as is nothing I'm going to say here is either.

I mentioned earlier that Peter H has put me on to a trail of thinking.  We are just speculating, here, right?  I don't know if this is correct but it is another alternative.  Let me throw in the caveats that I criticize everyone else on - 1) one STR is not enough, albeit 426 is very slow and 2) a paragroup may not be a valid group to analyze statistically as it is missing a large portion of its population.

The speculative alternative is based on the notion that 426=11 is the ancestral value for M269. It is the modal for M269xL23.  A mutation step of 1, 426=12, is the modal for L23xL51.  At the same time, the clear modal for P312, U106 and L11 as a whole is 426=12 so the hypothesis is that 426=12 is the ancestral for L11. That leaves modern L51xL11 as the odd man out with 426=13.

At the same time you can find among L23xL51 very WAMH-like haplotypes. They would, of course, have 426=12, like L11. Hence, this speculation is that the first L51+ man inherited 426=12 from his L21xL51 ancestral lineage. Most of the first L51+ guys' early branches died off.  One that survived, albeit relatively weakly, took the 426=13 mutation that we see today.  Of course, one of the early L51+ 426=12 lineages had a little better luck and produced first L11 man.

In this scenario, we don't where the L51+ 426=12 that was pre-L11 came from.  Since we are speculating, as I think most of you know, Peter H has noticed (and its true) that some of the WAMH like folks that are L23xL51 people are Assyrians or Armenians.  Granted these are modern people, so this could be just convergence.   One thing that is interesting about the L23xL51 that are WAMH-like, after you get away from Anatolia and the Assyrians, you find a couple of guys in Switzerland. Yes, there are people from Greece, Kosovo and Italy too that fit this bill.


All of your cautions are valid and should go without saying. However, as you know, none of this should be hypothesized without looking at other factors:

1. Yes, modern L51* is scattered, but the scattering is very lopsided and heavily in favor of France and Italy. As for the outliers, they are just that, "outliers". If we tested 1000 guys from Yemen, I'm sure every SNP on the planet would be represented.
2. All P312 branches seem to be Franco-something or other: U152 is Franco-Italian, L21 is Franco-British, DF27 is Franco-Iberian.
3. As you have seen, U152 has higher variance than even P312* and of course U152 has its center in south-central Europe. In a swift migration scenario, you think L51 was far behind? Like I've said, I've seen zero evidence of a non-European origin for L51 and aparently neither did Natalie Myres and co.
4. The linguistic similarities between Celtic and Italic are such that a shared ancestry has been debated for decades (proto-Celto-Italic). Both of these languages left a trace in Iberia as well.
5. Guess which ancient language is considered both Celtic and Italic, albeit a little more Celtic than Italic? Ligurian. Guess where Ligurian was spoken? Yup, S.E. France and NW Italy.

There is just too much smoke close to the Rhone and the Western Alps to think this all a coincidence.

I would tend to agree with that.  Some really important part of the R1b spread into Europe relates to that area of SE France. NW Italy, perhaps Switzerland.  I think if I completely take off my archaeologists hat, the DNA evidence alone does keep pointing to the early importance of that area and its crucial role in the dispersal of R1b in western Europe.  You have kind of convinced me of the striking pattern of L51* with your map that R1b may have entered that area when L11* was not yet dominant (or perhaps just coming into existence.  I am kind of surprised that this interesting pattern was not really emphasised before for L51* but a picture (well map really) says as much as 1000 words.  It just jumps out as significant to me. 

It is tempting to interpret your map as a marine movement from somewhere east of Italy moving around the south of Italy and up its west coast and islands to a major settlement at the Ligurian area.  However, we do not have variance calculations on an area by area basis and the distribution doesnt tell us direction or phasing.  It is possible that L51 could have reach Liguria from the north Alpine area coming down the Rhone and then dispersed southwards (perhaps in a movement also including downstream clades). Mike mentioned that the L51* variant most likely to be ancestral to L11* is found in Switzerland and I do recall there is a minor concentration of L11* there on the Myres maps.  If that were true then the missing link is between L23* in SE Europe (and thereabouts) to some largely dissapeared L51* lineage in the north Alpine area. 

So, IMO we still have a missing link issue although I think your map is helping to refine the issue.  I have an open mind on a central European, Med or both route for R1b into Europe.
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« Reply #32 on: May 06, 2012, 04:09:57 PM »

....  You have kind of convinced me of the striking pattern of L51* with your map that R1b may have entered that area when L11* was not yet dominant (or perhaps just coming into existence.  I am kind of surprised that this interesting pattern was not really emphasised before for L51* but a picture (well map really) says as much as 1000 words.  It just jumps out as significant to me.  

I think we need to be cautious with frequency maps. The visualization may be powerful, but not necessarily on target.  This is no criticism of Richard R, just that we are often looking at partial depictions of the data.

Since I don't think absolute frequency is that important, I lean towards this method of visualization as being valuable.   I do like your frequency maps and appreciate the work. It is very helpful.  It's just that there are many ways to display data.  Some forms of display (charting) may give you answers to different questions than what are being asked....   good, bad, or ugly - I think about this kind of stuff in my profession.


.
So, IMO we still have a missing link issue although I think your map is helping to refine the issue.  I have an open mind on a central European, Med or both route for R1b into Europe.


I agree, totally.  Richard R's map helps refine the issues, but we still have a missing link.

« Last Edit: May 06, 2012, 04:12:48 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #33 on: May 07, 2012, 09:26:31 AM »

...
There is just too much smoke close to the Rhone and the Western Alps to think this all a coincidence.

I didn't mean to mis-communicate. I agree, the Lower Rhone and the Western Alps were obviously an launching areas for P312.

However, that doesn't mean L11 originated there or that the Lower Rhone was its first launching area. That is all I am saying.

How do you think U106 ties into this?

R1b Subclades Frequency Maps by Myres
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b_Subclades_Frequency_Maps_by_Myres_2010.png

We know U106 has a different distribution than P312 even though it is closely related to L51* and L11* also.  As I've said, I'm more interested in diversity than frequency. From what I can tell with long haplotypes and Myres' age estimates, U106 is older in Poland and along the Baltic.

I think it is possible that U106 is old in Switzerland and Austria.... possibly even over into SE France or N Italy but that is a bit of stretch.  It's possible, though.  It's just that from what data I've seen it is older well north and east of the Alps. I haven't looked at the U106 subclades as much. Any evidence of a southern origin?

1. Yes, modern L51* is scattered, but the scattering is very lopsided and heavily in favor of France and Italy. As for the outliers, they are just that, "outliers". If we tested 1000 guys from Yemen, I'm sure every SNP on the planet would be represented.

It appears you place a premium on frequency. That's fine, particularly for assessing where L51* may be point of pooling. L21 is very high in Ireland, also probably in some locations in the US, but I think we have to decipher that in context of potential destination or growth locations.

I hesitate to call R1b in SW Asia as "outliers" and therefore summarily dismiss them. (Oh boy, Maclivelli probably thinks I'm nuts - what's an outlier? what's an exception?)  

2. All P312 branches seem to be Franco-something or other: U152 is Franco-Italian, L21 is Franco-British, DF27 is Franco-Iberian.

I agree SE France was a hotspot for P312. The STR and SNP diversity there is high.

4. The linguistic similarities between Celtic and Italic are such that a shared ancestry has been debated for decades (proto-Celto-Italic). Both of these languages left a trace in Iberia as well.

5. Guess which ancient language is considered both Celtic and Italic, albeit a little more Celtic than Italic? Ligurian. Guess where Ligurian was spoken? Yup, S.E. France and NW Italy.

I have little to comment on the linguistics other than to concur that there is a clear link of this languages and there is a clear link of these locations to P312.

3. As you have seen, U152 has higher variance than even P312* and of course U152 has its center in south-central Europe. In a swift migration scenario, you think L51 was far behind? Like I've said, I've seen zero evidence of a non-European origin for L51 and aparently neither did Natalie Myres and co.

What do you mean by "you think L51 was far behind?"   Why would L51 not have been ahead?  What are you asking?

Lack of evidence is not evidence of absence.  I may be misreading the tables but I think I see at least one L51xL11 person is from Iran and one from Turkey.  Maybe that is not enough smoke to call a fire, but maybe its just an ember. An ember is still an ember.

Do you disagree with the proposal by Wells of the Central Asia "heartland" for Hg R, P and Q? This goes with Alan's thought that there is a missing link.

I found these two old charts based on the Myres data. I created the first one and Maju created the second.  Please correct me if I misunderstand the Myres notations but I have that M412=L51 and M529=L21 and that Maju had a typo on M529 as M259 (it should be M529/L21.)

These are just frequency maps, but with a different base than the total population. The base for the frequency ratios is either M269 (R1b1a2) or in my case M343 (R1b.)

R1b-M269 Substructure by Maju with Myres data
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b-M269_Substructure_V2_by_Maju_Myres_data.png
http://forwhattheywereweare.blogspot.com/2012/03/basque-and-gascon-y-dna-survey.html

R1b-M343 Substructure by MW with Myres data
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b-M343_Substructure_R1b-L11_Focus_by_MW_Myres_data.png

It is very clear that the haplogroup mix changes dramatically as we go east through East Europe to SW Asia, the Caucasus and even just to the north of the Caucasus.

I disagree with Maju's terminology in calling M269xL23 and L23xL51 "ancestral" as they modern groups and probably have their own downstream SNPs that haven't been discovered yet.  Still, whether there is a downstream SNP or not, M269xL23 and L23xL51 are different than M269 in Western Europe.

I think that we have to consider L23xL51 differently than L51xL11.   L23xL51 has high STR diversity and probably really is a set of subclades.  In other words, they are like 2nd or 3rd or 4th cousins that are probably 2nd or 3rd or 4th cousins to each other.  

The extant L51xL11 that we have found so far has low diversity. In fact, they all have 426=13 so they even have a common STR signature different than L23xL51 and different than L11.  From this perspective, we should think of these guys as L51xL11 13's, where the "13" is a subclade marker. In a family tree sense, they are more like 1st cousins or 2nd cousins to P312 and U106, but they are not 1st or 2nd cousins to each other, L51xL11 "13" folks are probably their own singular branch of the family.

That still leaves us with missing links between U106 and P312 within L11* and from L11 back through the elusive L51xL11 until we get to L23xL51.... which (L23xL51) really does appear old on the fringes of Europe and to the east.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2012, 12:55:23 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #34 on: May 07, 2012, 10:00:18 AM »

Mikewww says: “I think it is possible that U106 is old in Switzerland and Austria.... possibly even over into SE France or N Italy but that is a bit of stretch.  It's possible, though.  It's just that from what data I've seen it is older well north and east of the Alps. I haven't looked at the U106 subclades as much. Any evidence of a southern origin?”

You know that some years ago U106 was thought German and when it was found in Italy it was German and recent: what we call “Invasioni barbariche”, Germans “Völkerwanderungen” and you “Migrations of peoples”. Probably I was one of the first to say that it wasn’t said that U106 found in Italy didn’t come from what I call the “Italian Refugium”. Now we see that Italian U106 are above all of the most ancient  origin, DYS390=24 and no SNP downstream. Certainly there are also some more recent haplotypes, come probably with German peoples.
Austria had and has a huge presence of U106, and of course it was easy to think to Germans,  but also this isn’t said. They too may be ancient and before the German migration, above all if we think that my “Italian Refugium” was there: North Italy/Alps.
Then you ask where is the “missing link”. I have formulated a hypothesis, which of course  must be verified.
And otherwise we wouldn’t be able to explain the presence in South Poland of R-L51+, just the RRocca’s map. And more interesting would be a discourse about the mtDNA, discourse I have done here in other threads.
Also about this we are waiting for aDNA, that I presume will come soon.
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« Reply #35 on: May 07, 2012, 11:01:05 AM »

@Mike...

I don't know enough about U106, but when I eyeballed the Myres samples from Estonia (n=10) and Poland (n=9) they seemed to be an even split between L48 and non-L48 samples whereas the ones from England seem to be overwhelmingly L48. In that regard, I think the lack of SNP depth is misleading. I'm not sure if anyone has done a variance deep dive based on FTDNA Z-series SNPs. Certainly I think the first U106 carrier was DYS390=24, and I think most U106 folks will agree with that. The caution there is that DYS390=24 is the modal in several parts of Europe, including the south.

As for my placing a premium on frequency - I do and I don't. In the specific case of L51*, FTDNA samples are so scarce, that geographical variance/diversity is of no help and therefore frequency is very much in play. While I did notice that all surviving L51* are probably the result of a later founder based on the DYS426=13, the caution should be lessened somewhat by the fact that they represent the first DYS393=13, which of course is modal in WAMH.

By the way, I didn't call R1b in SW Asia an outlier, I called L51* in SW Asia an outlier which of course is a huge difference. I am well aware of L23* in the Caucasias, among Baskhirs, etc. Still, I have yet to see a European L23* sample test L584+, so I still think that we could see small incremental uptics in variance from Anatolia>Balkans>Southern Italy which will be separated by their own regional SNPs once full genome sequencing finds them.

All other discussion about P, Q, R, R1, R1b, etc. are just too far off topic as they probably happened thousands or even tens of thousands of years before L51.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2012, 11:04:47 AM by Richard Rocca » Logged

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« Reply #36 on: May 07, 2012, 11:14:45 AM »

...
There is just too much smoke close to the Rhone and the Western Alps to think this all a coincidence.

I didn't mean to mis-communicate. I agree, the Lower Rhone and the Western Alps were obviously an launching areas for P312.

However, that doesn't mean L11 originated there or that the Lower Rhone was its first launching area. That is all I am saying.

How do you think U106 ties into this?

R1b Subclades Frequency Maps by Myres
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b_Subclades_Frequency_Maps_by_Myres_2010.png

We know U106 has a different distribution than P312 even though it is closely related to L51* and L11* also.  As I've said, I'm more interested in diversity than frequency. From what I can tell with long haplotypes and Myres' age estimates, U106 is older in Poland and along the Baltic.

I think it is possible that U106 is old in Switzerland and Austria.... possibly even over into SE France or N Italy but that is a bit of stretch.  It's possible, though.  It's just that from what data I've seen it is older well north and east of the Alps. I haven't looked at the U106 subclades as much. Any evidence of a southern origin?

1. Yes, modern L51* is scattered, but the scattering is very lopsided and heavily in favor of France and Italy. As for the outliers, they are just that, "outliers". If we tested 1000 guys from Yemen, I'm sure every SNP on the planet would be represented.

It appears you place a premium on frequency. That's fine, particularly for assessing where L51* may be point of pooling. L21 is very high in Ireland, also probably in some locations in the US, but I think we have to decipher that in context of potential destination or growth locations.

I hesitate to call R1b in SW Asia as "outliers" and therefore summarily dismiss them. (Oh boy, Maclivelli probably thinks I'm nuts - what's an outlier? what's an exception?)  

2. All P312 branches seem to be Franco-something or other: U152 is Franco-Italian, L21 is Franco-British, DF27 is Franco-Iberian.

I agree SE France was a hotspot for P312. The STR and SNP diversity there is high.

4. The linguistic similarities between Celtic and Italic are such that a shared ancestry has been debated for decades (proto-Celto-Italic). Both of these languages left a trace in Iberia as well.

5. Guess which ancient language is considered both Celtic and Italic, albeit a little more Celtic than Italic? Ligurian. Guess where Ligurian was spoken? Yup, S.E. France and NW Italy.

I have little to comment on the linguistics other than to concur that there is a clear link of this languages and there is a clear link of these locations to P312.

3. As you have seen, U152 has higher variance than even P312* and of course U152 has its center in south-central Europe. In a swift migration scenario, you think L51 was far behind? Like I've said, I've seen zero evidence of a non-European origin for L51 and aparently neither did Natalie Myres and co.

What do you mean by "you think L51 was far behind?"   Why would L51 not have been ahead?  What are you asking?

Lack of evidence is not evidence of absence.  I may be misreading the tables but I think I see at least one L51xL11 person is from Iran and one from Turkey.  Maybe that is not enough smoke to call a fire, but maybe its just an ember. An ember is still an ember.

Do you disagree with the proposal by Wells of the Central Asia "heartland" for Hg R, P and Q? This goes with Alan's thought that there is a missing link.

I found these two old charts based on the Myres data. I created the first one and Maju created the second.  Please correct me if I misunderstand the Myres notations but I have that M412=L51 and M529=L21 and that Maju had a typo on M529 as M259 (it should be M529/L21.)

These are just frequency maps, but with a different base than the total population. The base for the frequency ratios is either M269 (R1b1a2) or in my case M343 (R1b.)

R1b-M269 Substructure by Maju with Myres data
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b-M269_Substructure_V2_by_Maju_Myres_data.png
http://forwhattheywereweare.blogspot.com/2012/03/basque-and-gascon-y-dna-survey.html

R1b-M343 Substructure by MW with Myres data
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17907527/R1b-M343_Substructure_R1b-L11_Focus_by_MW_Myres_data.png

It is very clear that the haplogroup mix changes dramatically as we go east through East Europe to SW Asia, the Caucasus and even just to the north of the Caucasus.

I disagree with Maju's terminology in calling M269xL23 and L23xL51 "ancestral" as they modern groups and probably have their own downstream SNPs that haven't been discovered yet.  Still, whether there is a downstream SNP or not, M269xL23 and L23xL51 are different than M269 in Western Europe.

I think that we have to consider L23xL51 differently than L51xL11.   L23xL51 has high STR diversity and probably really is a set of subclades.  In other words, they are like 2nd or 3rd or 4th cousins that are probably 2nd or 3rd or 4th cousins to each other.  

The extant L51xL11 that we have found so far has low diversity. In fact, they all have 426=13 so they even have a common STR signature different than L23xL51 and different than L11.  From perspective, we should think of these guys as L51xL11 13's, where the "13" is a subclade marker. In a family tree sense, they are more like 1st cousins or 2nd cousins to P312 and U106, but they are not 1st or 2nd cousins to each other, L51xL11 "13" folks are probably their own singular branch of the family.

That still leaves us with missing links between U106 and P312 within L11* and from L11 back through the elusive L51xL11 until we get to L23xL51.... which (L23xL51) really does appear old on the fringes of Europe and to the east.


Mike

I dont disagree with any of that.  To be honest I was not really thinking of the L51* as ancestral as such.  I suspect they were a minor lineage that travelled with a mainly L11 or derived group.  However, that assumptions still makes L51* interesting as an idenfiable element in the sea of P312 and may perhaps gives us a proxy for a larger movement of L11 or P312 of which L51* was just a fellow traveler.  

If all of these hunches and assumptions are correct (and they may not be) then we do have a trace of the networks of movement.  The SE France-NW France NW Italy, Sciclly-Portugal-Holland-Ireland-outlying central European rises in frequency to bear a strong (if imperfect - but allow for 4000 years of history since then) resemblance to important Beaker nodes and connections- not the entire network but a lot of it.  

Are they early traces?  I actually suspect they are. My simple reasoning is that progressive fission as R1b moved would likely leave a pattern of more of a mix of lineages of ancestral and derived type nearer the origin point with subsets of subsets breaking off with the fission and leading to homogenous groups at the end points furthest away from the origin.

However, I totally agree that if L51* is predominantly a parallel clade rather than ancestral to L11 clades then the missing link of actual ancestral L51 and L23 before it remains to be found and defined.  

Skipping over the non-ancestral L51* (assuming that is what it is), is there any L23* whose STRs look particularly like L11's and if so where are they located?
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« Reply #37 on: May 07, 2012, 11:50:35 AM »

Another hint that L51* was a minority early traveller with L11 is the fairly strong resemblance between the distribution of L51* and U152 in Italy and Europe in general.
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« Reply #38 on: May 07, 2012, 12:34:05 PM »

Mikewww says: “I think it is possible that U106 is old in Switzerland and Austria.... possibly even over into SE France or N Italy but that is a bit of stretch.  It's possible, though.  It's just that from what data I've seen it is older well north and east of the Alps. I haven't looked at the U106 subclades as much. Any evidence of a southern origin?”

You know that some years ago U106 was thought German and when it was found in Italy it was German and recent: what we call “Invasioni barbariche”, Germans “Völkerwanderungen” and you “Migrations of peoples”. Probably I was one of the first to say that it wasn’t said that U106 found in Italy didn’t come from what I call the “Italian Refugium”. Now we see that Italian U106 are above all of the most ancient  origin, DYS390=24 and no SNP downstream. Certainly there are also some more recent haplotypes, come probably with German peoples.
Austria had and has a huge presence of U106, and of course it was easy to think to Germans,  but also this isn’t said. They too may be ancient and before the German migration, above all if we think that my “Italian Refugium” was there: North Italy/Alps.
Then you ask where is the “missing link”. I have formulated a hypothesis, which of course  must be verified.
And otherwise we wouldn’t be able to explain the presence in South Poland of R-L51+, just the RRocca’s map. And more interesting would be a discourse about the mtDNA, discourse I have done here in other threads.
Also about this we are waiting for aDNA, that I presume will come soon.


U106+, Z381-, Z18- is a pretty small group at the moment and I'm not aware of any with Italian descent, could you post some details of these kits please ?
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« Reply #39 on: May 07, 2012, 01:16:49 PM »

Skipping over the non-ancestral L51* (assuming that is what it is), is there any L23* whose STRs look particularly like L11's and if so where are they located?

This is Peter Hrechdakian's (of the R1b ht35 project) theory.  It would be better we hear from him or that we find his presentations/posts.

Here are the closest GD's to the L11* modal.  The GD at 67 is the last two digits.  About half of these guys are L584+. Not sure what to make of that.

f205749   Al-Jeloo   Iraq (Assyrian project)   10
fN51805   Arnwine   zzzUnkOrigin   13
f184555   Bahlavouni   Turkey (Armenian project)   13
f185690   Papazian   Turkey (Armenian project)   14
f177152   Burkholder   Switzerland   17
f213562   David   Iraq (Assyrian project)   17
f164219   Sinanian   Turkey (Armenian project)   18
fE12439   Fega   Albania   20
f162445   Panopoulos   Greece, Attica, Marathon, Mati   20
fN74713   Tchekidjian   Turkey (Armenian project)   20
f182296   Burckhalter   Switzerland   20
f84950   Ciulla   Italy   21
fN76689   Khalil   Egypt   21
f83616   zzzUnkName   zzzUnkOrigin   21
fE11319   Malagodi   Italy, Emilia-Romagna, Ferrara, Cento   23


This is a different way to look for "WAMHish" R-L23xL51 folks.  These all have 393=13 390=24 385=11,14

f205749   Al-Jeloo   Iraq (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   11   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f177152   Burkholder   Switzerland   13   24   15   10   11   14   12   12   12   13   14   15
f213562   David   Iraq (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
fN74713   Tchekidjian   Turkey (Armenian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   13   14   13   16
fN76689   Khalil   Egypt   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   13   13   13   19
fE11319   Malagodi   Italy, Emilia-Romagna, Ferrara, Cento   13   24   13   10   11   14   13   12   12   13   13   16
f77594   Constantini   Greece (Jewish project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f168028   Turzó   Hungary, Hajdú-Bihar Co., Szentpéterszeg   13   24   14   11   11   14   13   12   12   13   13   15
f73539   Bacchus   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f61835   Hurmis   Turkey (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f205003   Khoshabow   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f83734   Oshana   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f60631   Paul   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   11   14   13   16
fN93831   Solomon   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16


I'm not purposely trying to NOT show Western Europeans. Despite the much greater penetration of consumer DNA testing in NW Europe these kind of R-L23xL51 people are just not found to any great extent in the northwest.

Peter H points to the Assyrians.   I think our data is too light to really tell, but it is something else to evaluate.

Maliclevelli has brought Malagodi before.
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« Reply #40 on: May 07, 2012, 01:21:13 PM »

U106+, Z381-, Z18- is a pretty small group at the moment and I'm not aware of any with Italian descent, could you post some details of these kits please ?
Of course I don't know if some Italian has been tested for Z381 and Z18. I did mean for the most diffused SNPs known before this Z series.
But, if you know it, tell me who are these few tested.
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« Reply #41 on: May 07, 2012, 01:24:57 PM »

All other discussion about P, Q, R, R1, R1b, etc. are just too far off topic as they probably happened thousands or even tens of thousands of years before L51.

I think they are relevant in that they are other pieces to the puzzle.  The more pieces you can plug in, the more we have a chance to figure it out.

R1 is likely Central Asian. R1b-M343 is probably less than 18k ybp and by the time we get to R1b-M269, folks like FTDNA's Mike Hammers are saying 4-8K ybp.  If we find M269xL23 in SW Asia and we see V88 splitting off into Africa, then we are setting the logical base for an east to west expansion/migration at some time.  This is where the missing links appear (or don't appear) - from SW Asia to Western Europe.
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« Reply #42 on: May 07, 2012, 01:40:29 PM »

All other discussion about P, Q, R, R1, R1b, etc. are just too far off topic as they probably happened thousands or even tens of thousands of years before L51.

I think they are relevant in that they are other pieces to the puzzle.  The more pieces you can plug in, the more we have chance to figure it out.

R1 is likely Central Aisian. R1b-M343 is probably less than 18k ybp and by the time we get to R1b-M269, folks like FTDNA's Mike Hammers are saying 4-8K ybp.  If we find M269xL23 in SW Asia and we see V88 splitting off into Africa, then we are setting the logical base for an east to west expansion/migration at some time.  This is where the missing links appear (or don't appear) - from SW Asia to Western Europe.

It's not that it's not relevant, it's that nobody (sans Gioiello) is arguing against M269xL23 coming from the east. I (and Myres) put the first L51 in Europe and I think there will be some clearly European sub-clades of L23*. Everything before that certainly looks eastern to me.
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« Reply #43 on: May 07, 2012, 01:41:23 PM »

I’ll study your spreadsheet but it seems to me it has a few meaning. Malagodi is going to be tested for L51 c/o Igenea for my invite and I think he will be certainly of this haplogroup.
The others: the most part are Armenians or of ancient Armenian descent, others are of the Balkan cluster (L23), some of the L277 now abolished by FTDNA but they have this SNP. How can you put all them together?
If you are searching for the ancestor of L11, the unique is Malagodi, who is of the upstream SNP. All the others are so far. But if you did know my haplotype and of my relatives and that of Giorgio Tognarelli and also Romitti, certainly we, like L23, are closer.
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« Reply #44 on: May 07, 2012, 01:41:45 PM »

U106+, Z381-, Z18- is a pretty small group at the moment and I'm not aware of any with Italian descent, could you post some details of these kits please ?
Of course I don't know if some Italian has been tested for Z381 and Z18. I did mean for the most diffused SNPs known before this Z series.
But, if you know it, tell me who are these few tested.

Six that I know of.

Vince Tilroe is one, after that we have two with English ancestry, one Scotish, one German and a brickwalled American with an English surname.

There are also three who haven’t tested Z18, two of these are brickwalled but have typically British Isles names and the other Polish.

Testing is limited at the moment though, possibly because of the dominance of L48 in U106.
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« Reply #45 on: May 07, 2012, 02:29:42 PM »

This is Peter Hrechdakian's (of the R1b ht35 project) theory.  It would be better we hear from him or that we find his presentations/posts.

Here are the closest GD's to the L11* modal.  The GD at 67 is the last two digits.  About half of these guys are L584+. Not sure what to make of that.

f205749   Al-Jeloo   Iraq (Assyrian project)   10

That is interesting. 

It is difficult for Assyrians to trace their ancestry, thanks to all of the upheavals of the last several centuries (e.g. Arabs, Mongols, Kurds, etc.), but, based on what Nicholas Al-Jeloo has been able to gather, his paternal line may be from Arbil, in N Iraq.

UNESCO » Culture » World Heritage Centre

Quote
Erbil Citadel Town, which is situated dramatically on top of an artificial, 32-meters high earthen mound, and visually dominating the expansive modern city of Erbil, is believed to have been in continuous existence for 7000 years or even more. Thus, it may be regarded as the oldest continuously inhabited settlement in the world.  Because of its past fortifications and steeply inclined mound, which is at some locations nearly 45 degrees, it has managed to survive numerous sieges and fierce attacks.  The existing fabric, however, goes back to several hundred years but is, nevertheless, of extreme vernacular architectural and urban interest, not only for Iraq but also for humanity at large.

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« Reply #46 on: May 07, 2012, 02:51:28 PM »

Skipping over the non-ancestral L51* (assuming that is what it is), is there any L23* whose STRs look particularly like L11's and if so where are they located?

This is Peter Hrechdakian's (of the R1b ht35 project) theory.  It would be better we hear from him or that we find his presentations/posts.

Here are the closest GD's to the L11* modal.  The GD at 67 is the last two digits.  About half of these guys are L584+. Not sure what to make of that.

f205749   Al-Jeloo   Iraq (Assyrian project)   10
fN51805   Arnwine   zzzUnkOrigin   13
f184555   Bahlavouni   Turkey (Armenian project)   13
f185690   Papazian   Turkey (Armenian project)   14
f177152   Burkholder   Switzerland   17
f213562   David   Iraq (Assyrian project)   17
f164219   Sinanian   Turkey (Armenian project)   18
fE12439   Fega   Albania   20
f162445   Panopoulos   Greece, Attica, Marathon, Mati   20
fN74713   Tchekidjian   Turkey (Armenian project)   20
f182296   Burckhalter   Switzerland   20
f84950   Ciulla   Italy   21
fN76689   Khalil   Egypt   21
f83616   zzzUnkName   zzzUnkOrigin   21
fE11319   Malagodi   Italy, Emilia-Romagna, Ferrara, Cento   23


This is a different way to look for "WAMHish" R-L23xL51 folks.  These all have 393=13 390=24 385=11,14

f205749   Al-Jeloo   Iraq (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   11   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f177152   Burkholder   Switzerland   13   24   15   10   11   14   12   12   12   13   14   15
f213562   David   Iraq (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
fN74713   Tchekidjian   Turkey (Armenian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   13   14   13   16
fN76689   Khalil   Egypt   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   13   13   13   19
fE11319   Malagodi   Italy, Emilia-Romagna, Ferrara, Cento   13   24   13   10   11   14   13   12   12   13   13   16
f77594   Constantini   Greece (Jewish project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f168028   Turzó   Hungary, Hajdú-Bihar Co., Szentpéterszeg   13   24   14   11   11   14   13   12   12   13   13   15
f73539   Bacchus   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f61835   Hurmis   Turkey (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f205003   Khoshabow   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f83734   Oshana   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16
f60631   Paul   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   11   14   13   16
fN93831   Solomon   Iran (Assyrian project)   13   24   14   10   11   14   12   12   12   14   13   16


I'm not purposely trying to NOT show Western Europeans. Despite the much greater penetration of consumer DNA testing in NW Europe these kind of R-L23xL51 people are just not found to any great extent in the northwest.

Peter H points to the Assyrians.   I think our data is too light to really tell, but it is something else to evaluate.

Maliclevelli has brought Malagodi before.

It is very blurry but it does give the impression that the reason for a 'missing link' might be some sort of jump by sea from Aegean area around the south tip of Italy.  In fact if you think about it the 'missing link' if it remains may be the most compelling evidence of this and maybe we are chasing moonbeams looking for the L23 trail through central Europe.  Only the Swiss guys point to alternatives but they share variants of the same surname.  
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« Reply #47 on: May 07, 2012, 03:04:20 PM »


Peter H points to the Assyrians.   I think our data is too light to really tell, but it is something else to evaluate.

I will concur with that.   Sixty-seven marker haplotypes from Druze and Alawites would be a terrific start.
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« Reply #48 on: May 07, 2012, 04:00:55 PM »

All other discussion about P, Q, R, R1, R1b, etc. are just too far off topic as they probably happened thousands or even tens of thousands of years before L51.

I think they are relevant in that they are other pieces to the puzzle.  The more pieces you can plug in, the more we have a chance to figure it out.

R1 is likely Central Asian. R1b-M343 is probably less than 18k ybp and by the time we get to R1b-M269, folks like FTDNA's Mike Hammers are saying 4-8K ybp.  If we find M269xL23 in SW Asia and we see V88 splitting off into Africa, then we are setting the logical base for an east to west expansion/migration at some time.  This is where the missing links appear (or don't appear) - from SW Asia to Western Europe.

It's not that it's not relevant, it's that nobody (sans Gioiello) is arguing against M269xL23 coming from the east. I (and Myres) put the first L51 in Europe and I think there will be some clearly European sub-clades of L23*. Everything before that certainly looks eastern to me.

You may very well be right, but the implication that goes with L51 is that L11 was first in SE France too.  

In the Busby data tables I see L11* lightly scattered to places like:
Ukraine
Estonia
Slovakia (2 Sets)
Crete
Central Italy
South Italy
East Sicily

Maliclevelli, there you again - Italy makes the list, although Ukraine had a larger number.... still all very light.
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« Reply #49 on: May 07, 2012, 04:02:46 PM »


R1 is likely Central Aisian. R1b-M343 is probably less than 18k ybp and by the time we get to R1b-M269, folks like FTDNA's Mike Hammers are saying 4-8K ybp.  If we find M269xL23 in SW Asia and we see V88 splitting off into Africa, then we are setting the logical base for an east to west expansion/migration at some time.  This is where the missing links appear (or don't appear) - from SW Asia to Western Europe.

Well aDNA now sets the earliest date of R1b-M269 in Europe to 4500 ybp, as for R1b-M269xL23, it is found in Europe too. Per Myres et al(2010) R1b-M269(xL23) is found as follows:

Germany (n=274) 1.09%  (2.13% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Switzerland (n=175) 1.14% (2.17% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Slovenia (n=102) 0.98% (5.55% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Poland (n=202) 0.495% (4% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Hungary (n=113) 0.88% (4.35% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Russia (n=1037) 0.289% (6% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Ukraine (n=504) 0.198% (3.45%  of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Bashkirs (n=586) 1.706% (5.24% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Bosnia (n=78) 1.282% (100% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Serbia (n=113) 4.42% (45.45% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Herzegovina (n=141) 1.418% (50% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Macedonia (n=79) 5.063% (100% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Kosovo(n=114) 7.89% (37.5% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Romania(n=330) 2.727% (22.5% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Italy (n=282) 1.063% (2.86% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Greece (n=185) 1.081% (8.33% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Crete(n=193) 2.072% (12.12% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Northeast Caucasus* (n=374) 0.535% (3.45% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

*R1b-M269(xL23) is only found in Lezgis (n=31) with a frequency of 3.225% (20% of all R1b-M269+ in sample) , and Tabasarans (n=43) with a frequency of 2.325% (5.88% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)      .

Northwest Caucasus (n=695) 0% (0% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

South Caucasus (n=278) 0% (0% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Central Asia-Pakistan and Kazakhstan (n=199) 0% (0% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Jordan (n=222) 0.45% (12.5% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Iran (n=150) 2.667% (33.33% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Turkey (n=611) 1.963% (13.19% of all R1b-M269+ in sample)     

Here is the variance calculation for R1b-M269(xL23) from Myres et al(2010), unfortunately they did not sample the 10 STRs for many of the Balkan populations which are relatively rich in R1b-M269(xL23). (A total of 21 haplotypes of R1b-M269(xL23) weren’t tested for the 10 STRs 1 from Bosnia, 5 from Serbia, 2 from Herzegovina, 4 from Macedonia, 9 from Kosovo).

The European R1b-M269(xL23) 10 STR sample consist of:

Romania-5
Italy-3,
Greece-2, 
Germany-2,
Switzerland-2
Hungary-1
Poland-1
Slovenia-1
Germany-1*


*The authors did include all the German haplotypes, however I did not include 1 in my calculations due to the fact that it was missing the value for DYS19.

European R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes that were not included in sample are:

Kosovo-9
Serbia-5
Macedonia-4
Russia-3
Herzegovina-2
Bosnia-1
Ukraine-1


The West Asian R1b-M269(xL23) 10 STRs sample consist of:

Turkey-10
Iran-1
Tasabaran-1
Bashkirs-1


West Asian R1b-M269(xL23) haplotypes that were not included in sample are:

Jordan-1
Iran-3
Turkey-2
Lezgis-2
Bashkirs-9



Anyhow the variance of R1b-M269(xL23) using 10 STRs is as follows:

Europe (n=17) 0.2706

West Asia (n=13) 0.2385

It seems that R1b-M269(xL23) has more variance in Europe than in West Asia, at least for the Myres et al(2010) dataset. 

Anyone's got any info about the variance of R1b-M269(xL23) in the Balkans. I wish Myres et al(2010) would have included the 21 Balkanic sequences that were left out, as to do a comparison of Balkans vs.West Asia. I have a feeling that the Western Balkans(i.e. Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia) would have a high variance for R1b-M269(xL23).
« Last Edit: May 07, 2012, 08:37:46 PM by JeanL » Logged
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