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Author Topic: Have paternal (for R1b) lineages grown faster than the population?  (Read 785 times)
Mike Walsh
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« on: September 07, 2012, 09:44:06 AM »

The simple answer is yes and no.

Some paternal lineages grow much faster than the general population.  However, this is at the expense of other lineages. Y DNA lineages commonly go extinct. Probably, almost certainly, the vast majority of Y DNA lineages have gone extinct.

Ken Nordtvedt is a former member of the US National Science Board who is know for his strong mathematical capabilities. He's developed new math models for TMRCA calculations.

He focuses on Hg I, but here is a comment he posted yesterday. Its just something to keep in mind that the paternal lineage growth rate of certain lineages (the lucky ones so to speak) can far outpace general population growth.

On Rootsweb (Y-DNA-HAPLOGROUP-I):
Quote from: Ken Nordtvedt
Because y line extinction rates are so high, the observed growth rates of the few surviving y lines greatly exceeds the population growth rate. Here's an example. We trace what happens by pc simulation to an initial 1000 males.
Population growth rate is 1.5 percent per generation, and the p[n] probabilities
of having n male off spring are chosen accordingly. We let the population go
for 150 generations.

In one run the number of surviving lines of the initial 1000 is 18. 982 lines
went extinct. Here are the number of descendants of each of the 18 demographic
winners in that 150th generation. And to the right of each is the average
percentage growth rate of that winner's resulting descendant population.

122 3.2%
942 4.6%
166 3.4%
30 2.3%
105 3.1%
356 3.9%
455 4.1%
1021 4.6%
1677 4.9%
106 3.1%
290 3.8%
581 4.2%
158 3.4%
148 3.3%
17 1.9%
492 4.1%
1358 4.8%
70 2.8%

Total population for 150th generation is 8094.

Of course each PC simulation run with same initial conditions comes out
different in details, but overall the same general characteristics.
http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/Y-DNA-HAPLOGROUP-I/2012-09/1346972903

I was tempted to post this in the Origins and Expansions of the Indo-Europeans.. thread as this may apply to how the Copper/Bronze Ages worked. It apparently applied in later times in clan based Celtic cultures.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2012, 01:44:42 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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Richard Rocca
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2012, 09:55:46 AM »

I was tempted to post this in the Origins and Expansions of the Indo-Europeans.. thread as this may apply to how the Copper/Bronze Ages worked. It apparently applied in later times in clan based Celtic cultures.

I've often wondered that Mike. I know folks don't make much out of Y-DNA mutations, but they must serve a purpose. When I was looking at the 1KG data it seemed to me like there were a lot of R1b mutations along a certain part of the Y, and nobody could really explain why that was. Maybe there is a genetic advantage to the Y-DNA structure of R1b (or R1a, etc.) over others.
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inver2b1
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2012, 10:27:32 AM »

I was tempted to post this in the Origins and Expansions of the Indo-Europeans.. thread as this may apply to how the Copper/Bronze Ages worked. It apparently applied in later times in clan based Celtic cultures.

I've often wondered that Mike. I know folks don't make much out of Y-DNA mutations, but they must serve a purpose. When I was looking at the 1KG data it seemed to me like there were a lot of R1b mutations along a certain part of the Y, and nobody could really explain why that was. Maybe there is a genetic advantage to the Y-DNA structure of R1b (or R1a, etc.) over others.


Hasn't I been linked to a higher rate of heart disease? i wonder if this played a a role i how R1b came to dominate Europe.
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rms2
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« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2012, 11:42:58 AM »

There is also the issue of differences in sperm motility between y haplogroups.

These computations put paid to the idea that big y haplogroups got that way merely by arriving first and forming a permanent substrate without any other distinct reproductive advantages.

Late arrivals with advantages, as this info shows, can come to replace a previous set of y lineages in a fairly short time.
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Black Taylor
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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2012, 11:46:29 AM »

I was tempted to post this in the Origins and Expansions of the Indo-Europeans.. thread as this may apply to how the Copper/Bronze Ages worked. It apparently applied in later times in clan based Celtic cultures.

I've often wondered that Mike. I know folks don't make much out of Y-DNA mutations, but they must serve a purpose. When I was looking at the 1KG data it seemed to me like there were a lot of R1b mutations along a certain part of the Y, and nobody could really explain why that was. Maybe there is a genetic advantage to the Y-DNA structure of R1b (or R1a, etc.) over others.

I've wondered about the same thing in terms of evolutionary fitness of various Y mutations.  This blogger writes detailed posts on the same subject, if you have a spare hour it provides some food for thought:

http://rokus01.wordpress.com/2012/08/26/otzi-tells-it-all-on-recent-evolution-and-migration/

He has other interesting material on the blog as well.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2012, 12:18:03 PM »

I was tempted to post this in the Origins and Expansions of the Indo-Europeans.. thread as this may apply to how the Copper/Bronze Ages worked. It apparently applied in later times in clan based Celtic cultures.

I've often wondered that Mike. I know folks don't make much out of Y-DNA mutations, but they must serve a purpose. When I was looking at the 1KG data it seemed to me like there were a lot of R1b mutations along a certain part of the Y, and nobody could really explain why that was. Maybe there is a genetic advantage to the Y-DNA structure of R1b (or R1a, etc.) over others.

I really wasn't thinking along these lines, but it can not be ignored.  Well, it's a little embarassing.

Maciamo over on Eupedia (Click here) has dug up stuff on this. He cites "Identification of a Y chromosome haplogroup associated with reduced sperm counts".   (Click here)
I didn't read it but he says it shows.
Quote from: Maciamo
The haplogroup with the highest sperm count in the study was hg1, which unsurprisingly is R1b, followed by hg3 (R1a)

My father and mother procreated 3 sons and 2 daughters. I'm in on 4 sons, 0 daughters. My married son has one son and another on the way.  Anyway, my wife blames me and we are looking for a grand-daughter but have at least nine-ten more months of waiting.  My wife has read or was told that the motility, volume and timing are key and the man has something to do with that.

I thought I've read somewhere the mating of particular Y and mt Hgs makes a difference.  In other words, R1b and H together tend to produce more sons, at least that's what I remember.  I guess someone like FTDNA could look at their database and figure it out. ... what a mess that would be if they published something along these lines. Maybe certain male-female matches produces more sons and others produce more daughters.  I guess as long as it all evens out it works in the long run. LOL.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2012, 12:57:36 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2012, 12:55:21 PM »

I copied this from another thread, but there are cultural practices that can account for some paternal lineages growing faster than the norm.

Often people use medieval Irish society as a proxy for Celtic society, in general this isn't really recommended as obvious with advent of Christianity in the 5th century there were some changes. Some have argued that there was a shift from a more general "tribal" setting to that of one based on lineages. Anyways here's an extract from K.W. Nicholls seminal work: "Gaelic and Gaelicised Ireland in the Middle Ages"

Quote
One of the most important phenomena in a clan-based society is that of expansion from the top downwards. The seventeenth-century Irish scholar and genealogist Dualtagh Mac Firbisigh remarked that 'as the sons and families of the rulers multiplied, so their subjects and followers were squeezed out and withered away; and this penomenon, the expansion of the ruling or dominant stocks at th expense of the remainder, is a normal feature in societies of this type. It has been observed of the modern Basotho of South Africa that 'there is a constant displacement of commoners by royals [i.e. members of the royal clan] and of collateral royals by the direct descendants of the ruling prince;, and this could have been said without adaptation , of any important Gaelic or Gaelicized lordship of late medieval Ireland.
In Fermanagh, for example the kingship of the Maguires began only with the accession of Donn Mór in 1282 and the ramification of the family - with the exception of one or two small and territorially unimportant septs - began with the sons of the same man. the spread of his descendants can be seen by the genealogical tract called Geinelaighe Fhearmanach; by 1607 they must have been in the possesion of at least three-quarters of the total soil of Fermanagh, having displaced or reduced the clans which had previously held it. The rate which an Irish clan could itself must not be underestimated. Tulrlough an fhíona O'Donnell, lord of Tirconnell (d. 1423) had eighteen sons (by ten different women) and fifty-nine grandsons in the male line. Mulmora O'Reilly, the lord of East Brefny, who died in 1566, had at least fifty-eight O'Reilly grandsons. Philip Maguire, lord of Fermanagh (d. 1395) had twenty sons by eight mothers, and we know of at least fifty grandsons. Oliver Burke of Tirawley (two of whose became Lower Mac William although he himself had never held that position) left at least thirty-eight grandsons in the male line.  Irish law drew no distinction in matters of inheritance between the legitimate and the illegitimate and permitted the affiliation of children by their mother's declaration (see Chapter 4), and the general sexual permissiveness of medieval Irish society must have allowed a rate of multiplication approaching that which is permitted by the polygyny practised in, for instance, the clan socieities of southern Africa already cited.

In such a society it's no wonder that major lineages could multiple hugely over a very small period. 
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samIsaack
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« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2012, 01:42:26 PM »

I was tempted to post this in the Origins and Expansions of the Indo-Europeans.. thread as this may apply to how the Copper/Bronze Ages worked. It apparently applied in later times in clan based Celtic cultures.

I've often wondered that Mike. I know folks don't make much out of Y-DNA mutations, but they must serve a purpose. When I was looking at the 1KG data it seemed to me like there were a lot of R1b mutations along a certain part of the Y, and nobody could really explain why that was. Maybe there is a genetic advantage to the Y-DNA structure of R1b (or R1a, etc.) over others.

I really wasn't thinking along these lines, but it can not be ignored.  Well, it's a little embarassing.

Maciamo over on Eupedia (Click here) has dug up stuff on this. He cites "Identification of a Y chromosome haplogroup associated with reduced sperm counts".   (Click here)
I didn't read it but he says it shows.
Quote from: Maciamo
The haplogroup with the highest sperm count in the study was hg1, which unsurprisingly is R1b, followed by hg3 (R1a)

My father and mother procreated 3 sons and 2 daughters. I'm in on 4 sons, 0 daughters. My married son has one son and another on the way.  Anyway, my wife blames me and we are looking for a grand-daughter but have at least nine-ten more months of waiting.  My wife has read or was told that the motility, volume and timing are key and the man has something to do with that.

I thought I've read somewhere the mating of particular Y and mt Hgs makes a difference.  In other words, R1b and H together tend to produce more sons, at least that's what I remember.  I guess someone like FTDNA could look at their database and figure it out. ... what a mess that would be if they published something along these lines. Maybe certain male-female matches produces more sons and others produce more daughters.  I guess as long as it all evens out it works in the long run. LOL.

My Isaacs Grandparents had 13 children all together and ten of them were male! So I definitley can attest to R1b being highly successful and male producing. Almost all of my unlces have had at least one son as well.
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Black Taylor
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« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2012, 02:55:28 PM »

Another factor that can influence the number of male children a man will have is toxoplasma infection of his wife.  The parasite is associated with domestic cats and wild felines and infected women tend to have more male babies:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxoplasmosis

I am currently at work and should not be typing this at all...however I believe if you were to google gender birth ratios and toxoplasma infection you would find the original reference I read this in.

Toxoplasma infection is also interesting because it has a neurological effect on those of us with Rh- blood types.  I once read a Spanish study indicating significantly higher incidence of traffic accidents in Rh- individuals with white blood cell markers for recent toxoplasma infection.  Again, it would take a lot of googling to find that right now.

However it does make you think, if Rh- individuals are affected by toxoplasma such that they have more male babies, is there a reason why the maps of R1b and Rh- allele frequency are so similar?  The Basque population is an epicentre of both phenomena.  This seems to tie into the discussion on this thread of "alternative reasons" for R1b distributions. 

R1b map:
http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://robertlindsay.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/r1b-dna-distribution.jpg&imgrefurl=http://robertlindsay.wordpress.com/2009/08/09/the-proto-indo-europeans-and-their-early-descendants-proto-languages-and-homelands/&h=558&w=904&sz=231&tbnid=8QW3XfU8HSevQM:&tbnh=76&tbnw=123&zoom=1&usg=__vXhOHUr7bRIVQGSaC15_oRiV9Fw=&docid=9vm5-5gBWS6PLM&hl=en&sa=X&ei=LEJKUJ7QA4b8igKqsoAQ&ved=0CC8Q9QEwAg&dur=1770

Rh- map:
http://www.google.ca/imgres?um=1&hl=en&safe=off&rlz=1C1CHFX_enCA442CA442&biw=1280&bih=675&tbm=isch&tbnid=qbU7zaT0HvspdM:&imgrefurl=http://www.rationalskepticism.org/anthropology/is-race-real-t5936-3540.html&docid=eVzHkTvwe_v_xM&imgurl=http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/2862/rhnegativefreq.jpg&w=466&h=494&ei=sD9KUK6zC6rAiwKq54HABA&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=188&vpy=140&dur=4596&hovh=231&hovw=218&tx=138&ty=106&sig=109633024557062259824&page=1&tbnh=152&tbnw=143&start=0&ndsp=15&ved=1t:429,r:0,s:0,i:70
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Black Taylor
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« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2012, 03:01:45 PM »

Apologies for the weird formatting my last post seems to have come up in.
In my web browser (Google Chrome), the thread seems to have become three times wider on my screen.
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Black Taylor
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« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2012, 03:13:19 PM »

Here is a link to the study I originally read on toxoplasma and having more sons:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/t8l7j323rp17l5t1/?MUD=MP

Again, IF R1b entered into an area with a high frequency of Rh- blood type alleles, and Rh- status makes you more susceptible to toxoplasma infection (as it seems to do), then R1b could naturally come to dominate the male gene pool because all those infected women would be having more male babies.

Okay back to work.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2012, 10:48:28 PM »

Here is a link to the study I originally read on toxoplasma and having more sons:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/t8l7j323rp17l5t1/?MUD=MP

Again, IF R1b entered into an area with a high frequency of Rh- blood type alleles, and Rh- status makes you more susceptible to toxoplasma infection (as it seems to do), then R1b could naturally come to dominate the male gene pool because all those infected women would be having more male babies.

If this research is correct, this very simply and clearly explains the the high frequency but low diversity of R1b types among the Basques.
Quote
Basque seem to have the highest frequency of Rh- in the world
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2010/02/the-basques-may-not-be-who-we-think-they-are/

There does not appear to be much of a reason to think R1b types of male lineage were anything other than a late intrusion into the pre-Basque cultures.

We don't have to explain why the Basques are non-IE but high R1b, which is in opposition to the norm across Europe. A few elites could have produced a lot of sons in a receptive environment for male child proliferation.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2012, 10:54:44 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2012, 07:36:44 AM »

it seems to me that the Scandinavians who entered the Normandy area ended up speaking French. Why wouldn't the same happen if R1B types entered basque country?
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2012, 11:43:08 PM »

It turns out paternal surnames have a high rate of extinction too.

This was posted on Sept 7 on the Rootsweb Hg I Y DNA forum.
Quote from: Hans De Buele
To make the extinction of Y-lines tangible it is interesting to look at the declining number of paternal surnames.

In this respect also see the Galton-Watson process:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galton%E2%80%93Watson_process

The longer a society uses paternal surnames, the less variation in surnames this society has. As a result of this 22% of the Chinese is a Lee, Wang or Chang
« Last Edit: September 14, 2012, 11:48:19 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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