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Author Topic: Iberia and the Expansion of the Sons of P312  (Read 1480 times)
rms2
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« on: April 20, 2012, 08:43:02 PM »

Okay, I haven't exactly thought this all the way through, and I am sleepy (especially after drinking three glasses of Sangria - Ah! Iberia!), but does it seem that there is an Iberian connection for most of the sons of P312?

Look at the probable DF27 levels in Iberia. Even L21 and U152 have some estimable connections there.

So, could Klyosov be right?

Did P312, or that part of L11 destined to become P312, make its way along the Mediterranean coast to Iberia before expanding into the rest of western Europe?

(Have mercy on me, boys and girls!)
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« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2012, 09:16:13 PM »

I think he has R1b in north Africa before Iberia, which I don't see evidence for.
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rms2
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« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2012, 09:19:14 PM »

I think he has R1b in north Africa before Iberia, which I don't see evidence for.

Yeah, that's true.

Jean has some of our ancestors bouncing west along the Med coast, which I don't think Anatole would have a problem with, regardless of which bank it was.

Of course, Jean can correct me if I am wrong.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2012, 09:19:50 PM by rms2 » Logged

razyn
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« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2012, 10:04:12 PM »

Just in the interest of equal time for equal oceans, I'll vote for some sort of Volga-Vistula-Baltic Sea-Jutland w/portage-North Sea-English Channel-Bay of Biscay route for DF27, to arrive pretty early in present western France and Iberia (i.e. by boats, mainly).  Maybe also L21, and eventually L238.  If the other sons of P312 (and their U106 cousins) preferred to stroll the Danube valley, and/or use a Mediterranean route to Cadiz, I have no reason to dispute that.  (The discussion reminds me of catchy Sesame Street lyrics from roughly 40 years ago, whereby my kids were drilled on the nuances of Over, Under, and Through.)

I don't really think each language, cultural horizon, ceramic assemblage, etc. had to be wedded to a single haplogroup; but to suggest such tendencies makes for tidier, simpler, more comprehensible maps.  And there could be some truth in it.
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2012, 01:14:37 AM »

I think he has R1b in north Africa before Iberia, which I don't see evidence for.
Yes, that's the one I don't get.... hop scotching N. Africa to get to Iberia....

and, well, I still think P312 and U106 came overland more than by sea.
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« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2012, 01:44:50 AM »

I think he has R1b in north Africa before Iberia, which I don't see evidence for.
Yes, that's the one I don't get.... hop scotching N. Africa to get to Iberia....

and, well, I still think P312 and U106 came overland more than by sea.

Overland is more likely, imo.  I have advocated a Danubian route for R1b, but a route south of the alps through the Po valley and into southern France seems probable as well. 

Regarding Iberia, what are everyone's opinions on R1b's initial presence there?  Beaker colonists? Urnfield?  I tend to think the age estimates seen for various snp's support something earlier than Urnfield like Bell Beaker.  I'm not sure about the late neolithic inhabitants being R1b in Iberia, even if the beaker ceramics made it there early.

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« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2012, 02:34:38 AM »

I think he has R1b in north Africa before Iberia, which I don't see evidence for.
Yes, that's the one I don't get.... hop scotching N. Africa to get to Iberia....

and, well, I still think P312 and U106 came overland more than by sea.

Overland is more likely, imo.  I have advocated a Danubian route for R1b, but a route south of the alps through the Po valley and into southern France seems probable as well. 

Regarding Iberia, what are everyone's opinions on R1b's initial presence there?  Beaker colonists? Urnfield?  I tend to think the age estimates seen for various snp's support something earlier than Urnfield like Bell Beaker.  I'm not sure about the late neolithic inhabitants being R1b in Iberia, even if the beaker ceramics made it there early.



If I'm not mistaken, Cunliffe mentions the earliest Bell Beaker Archer's equipment is found in Eastern Iberia. I would see no problem with the sons of P312 as having an origins in Iberia, however, that nasty variance issue surfaces up and those more variant SNPs analyzed are found nowhere near Iberia. SRY2627 is very much a typical representation of what I mentioned.

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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2012, 03:56:44 AM »

IMO there were two routes to the Isles.
One by the maritime route from Anatolia via Crete, Thessaly, Balkens, Italy, Pillars of Hercules (or overland via Garonne), Tartessos, Galicia, Morbihan, Isles.
One by the river route from Anatolia, Balkens, Danube, Rhine, Rhone, Loire, Meuse, Seine, Morbihan, Isles.
The maritime migration was the first with the first wave from Anatolia to Crete. I don't think the migration was in one direction. It took one sailing season to go from The Black Sea to the Pillars of Hercules and back using the anti clockwise currents of the Meditteranean. The return trip was via the North African Coast.
The Phoeniciens followed this route later and had exchanges with the Celts at Tartessos.

A major hub in the Atlantic Facade was Morbihan especially for communication between  the Atlantic, The Isles and Iron Age Halstatt and Le Tene, connecting P312 to U106 and L21 to U152, and it was a major hub in the Atlantic, Megalithic, Copper and Bronze Ages. So P312 and L21 went via the Atlantic route and U106 and U152 via the River route.
However if you look at the coastal migration path from Anatolia the major hubs on the Iberian coast were Tartessian including Huevla and Rio Tinto  for copper mining, Tagus and Galicia. Much of the recent research and publications including Cunliffe & Koch, Moffat & Wilson and Klyosov also agree with this route.

I created a strawman which attempts to explain the Atlantic route.

http://m.box.com/view_shared/d0nr7768zv18ht6tk28i

https://www.box.net/shared/pf653l1r181ry7r61ix4

One of the major conferences on the subject was "Celtic from the West". The contributions of Cunliffe, Koch, McEvoy and Bradley are particularly interesting.

Here are some of the highlights:

Part 1. Archealogy

Celtization from the West,
the contribution of architecture.
Barry Cunliffe.
Fig 1.1 Relative density of ancient ‘Celtic looking’ place names. Hot spots on the atlantic Façade including Iberia..
Fig 1.3 Greek knowledge of the Celts in the age of Hecataeus and Herodotus. Largely confined to the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Greeks and Romans are not a reliable source for commentary on the Isles as much of their knowledge was second hand.
Fig 1.4 A cognitive geography of the Atlantic Zone as it might have been viewed by an Atlantic mariner, showing major rivers and inlets of Iberia and France.
Fig 1.5 Enclave colonisation. Europe in the period c 5500 - 4100 showing the two principal routes by which the Neolithic way of life spread through Europe from the southern Balkans, the overland spread via the Danube and North European Plain and the Mediterranean route by sea ultimately to the Atlantic coast of Iberia.
Fig 1.6 The distribution of megalithic tombs shows them to be essentially an Atlantic phenomenon. The earliest tombs  - passage graves dating c 4,500 - 3,500 BC - have a maritime distribution, suggesting that the beliefs and the technologies behind the construction was along the Atlantic seaways.
Fig 1.7 The distribution of jadeite axes from their source in the Western Alps across Europe. The distribution vividly displays the exchange networks then in operation.
Fig 1.8 The distribution of Maritime Bell Beaker in Atlantic Europe during the 3rd Millennium, the crucial nodes in this network were the Tagus estuary and the Morbihan, while major hinterland routes followed the navigable rivers. The map indicates the initial movements were maritime. Trade routes with Ireland and Southern Britain for copper and tin.
Fig 1.9 The extent of the Bell Beaker complex 2700-2200 BC. Major corridors of communication by sea and river. Mediterranean, Atlantic, Danube, Rhine,
Fig 1.10 The interaction of the Corded Ware and Bell Beaker Complexes c2500 BC. North European Plain.

The Celts from everywhere and nowhere. Raiumund Karl.
Different origins of Celtic cultural features with Linguistic Celtic origin along the Atlantic Façade, Archaeological ‘La Tene’ origin in central Europe and Historic ‘Druidic’ origin in the Isles.

Newly discovered inscriptions from the south-west of the Iberian peninsula. Tartessian. Amilcar Guerra.
An analysis of about 50 newly discovered stelae fromTartessian. Several photographs and sketches.

Part 2: Genetics.

Western Celts?
A genetic impression of Britain in Atlantic Europe. Ellen C. Royrvik.
Analysis of MC1R ‘red hair’ frequencies.
Map of Genetic variation in Europe.
Fig. 4.6 shows a Gaulish expansion leading to Iberia, Western France and the Isles.
Fig 4.7 shows a rough Highland and Lowland divide of the Isles with the south east more La Tene Gaulish and the West including Ireland representing a more pan Celtic profile.
Irish Genetics and the Celts. Brian McEvoy and Daniel Bradley.
Fig 5.1 Genetic contour map of Europe showing contours from Anatolia (SE) to the Isles (NW).
Fig 5.2 Genetic map of the Isles calculated from 300,000 SNPs spread across the autosomal genome showing Ireland, Wales, Scotland and England.
Fig 5.3 Contour map showing the geographic frequency distribution of the Irish Modal Haplogroup (IMH) and closely related Y-chromosones showing the NW Ireland hot spots.
Fig 5.4 Illustrative Genealogy of the Ui Neill dynasty (and derived surnames) from the 5th C to the present day.  Future testing will provide further insights as well as generating fresh debate on the Irish past.
A reanalysis of multiple prehistoric immigrations to Britain and Ireland aimed at identifying the Celtic contributions. Stephen Oppenheimer.
Fig 6.1 Map of Europe with frequency of ancient place names which were Celtic with hotspots in NW France, Iberia and the Isles.
Fig 6.2 Frequency distribution of genetic Haplogroup R1b. The densest gene flow follows the Atlantic façade, thus favouring Ireland which was then part of the continent.
Fig 6.3 Frequency distribution of genetic haplogroups Irb2 (M26) and Irb* (P37.2). The hotspots and possible homeland of Irb in the Balkens with Irb2 further to the West.
Fig 6.4 Frequency distribution of genetic haplogroup J2 (M12) in Europe showing expansion from the Balkens and hot spots in SE and NW Iberia. (Cruciani)
Fig 6.5 Frequency distribution of genetic haplogroup E3b1a2 in Europe with expansion from the Balkens. Cruciani.
Fig 6.6 Principal Componants Ananysis of Y Chromosones in Western Europe using R1b and R1a1 and I1b2 and I1a showing a gradient from Ireland via the Isles, Continent to Scandanavia.

Part 3 Language and Literature

Origen of the Celtic Languages. G.R. Isaac.
An analysis of the Indo European languages.
Tracking the course of the savage tongue. David N. Parsons.
Fig 8.1 British River names.
Fig 8.2-8.5 Various maps of ancient Europe showing occurrence of ‘~briga’, ‘~duno’, ‘~duro’,’~mag’ names. Many in Iberia.
Paradigm Shift? Interpreting Tartessian as Celtic. John T. Koch.
Fig 9.1 The Late Bronze Age and Early Iron Age in the south-western Iberian Peninsula: ‘warrior’ stelae, Phoenician colonies, and Tartessian inscriptions. Shows Keltoi Tartessos region.
Fig 9.1 Celtic Expansion from Halstatt/La Tele central Europe.
Fig 9.3 The Ancient Celtic Languages. Shows Halstatt, Early La Tene, Urnfield and Atlantic Bronze Age with sharp division of Goidelic, Brittonic and gaulish.
Tartessian Inscriptions: There follows over 70 detailed photographs and transcriptions of stelae many of them with depictions of warriors and their their epitaphs.
“Where the evidence of Tartessos and Tartessian changes the picture is in showing that one of the most dynamic regions influencing Ireland and Britain during the period c 1300 – c900 BC was probably itself Celtic speaking and also in contact with and receiving influences from non Indo European partners in the eastern Meditteranean and north Africa.
Tartessian Linguistic Elements: A detailed alphabet and index of names and analysis of the grammar follows.
Ancient References to Tartessos. A very interesting compendium of classical references to Tartessos from Greeks, Romans, Assyrians and Hebrews, ranging from Aristotle,Cicero, Hecataeus, Herodotus, Livy, Ovid, Pliny the Elder, Seneca, Strabo, Theopompus and biblical references from Genesis, Kings, Chronicles, Psalm, Jeremiah, Jonah.

The Problem of Lusitanian. Dagmar S. Wodtko.
The core region inhabited by Lusitanian’s seems to have comprised the lands between the Douro and Tejo in northern Portugal.

Celtic from the West
Cunliffe & Koch

This book is an exploration of the new idea that the Celtic languages originated in the Atlantic Zone during the Bronze Age, approached from various perspectives: pro and con, archaeology, genetics, and philology. This 'Celtic Atlantic Bronze Age' theory represents a major departure from the long-established, but increasingly problematic scenario in which the story of the Ancient Celtic languages and that of peoples called Keltoi 'Celts' are closely bound up with the archaeology of the Hallstatt and La Tene cultures of Iron Age west-central Europe. The 'Celtic from the West' proposal was first presented in Barry Cunliffe's Facing the Ocean (2001) and has subsequently found resonance amongst geneticists. It provoked controversy on the part of some linguists, though is significantly in accord with John Koch's findings in Tartessian (2009). The present collection is intended to pursue the question further in order to determine whether this earlier and more westerly starting point might now be developed as a more robust foundation for Celtic studies. As well as having this specific aim, a more general purpose of Celtic from the West is to bring to an English-language readership some of the rapidly unfolding and too often neglected evidence of the pre-Roman peoples and languages of the western Iberian Peninsula. Celtic from the West is an outgrowth of a multidisciplinary conference held at the National Library of Wales in Aberystwyth in December 2008. In addition to 11 chapters, the book includes 45 distribution maps and a further 80 illustrations. The conference and collaborative volume mark the launch of a multi-year research initiative undertaken by the University of Wales Centre for Advanced Welsh and Celtic Studies CAWCS]: Ancient Britain and the Atlantic Zone ABrAZo]. Contributors: (Archaeology) Barry Cunliffe; Raimund Karl; Amilcar Guerra; (Genetics) Brian McEvoy & Daniel Bradley; Stephen Oppenheimer; Ellen Rrvik; (Language & Literature) Graham Isaac; David Parsons; John T. Koch; Philip Freeman; Dagmar S. Wodtko.

The Scots, A Genetic Journey
Moffat & Wilson

“Now it appears that S145 (L21) also travelled along these (Atlantic) trading routes. The marker probably originated in southern France or northern Iberia and people carrying it came to Ireland and western Scotland. This was not a wave of migration but a series of small movements over time, probably in the millennium between 2,500 BC and 1,500 BC”.

R1a and R1b history:
Anatole Klyosov

 http://www.turkicworld.org/turkic/60_Genetics/Klyosov2010DNK-GenealogyEn.htm

The part that I found interesting was the following extract which concords with the recent Moffat and Wilson book, "The Scots, A Genetic Journey" and Cunliffe and Koch, "Celtic from the West".

"From the Anatolia, which the carriers of R1b1b2, together with their agglutinative language, reached 6,000 ± 800 years ago (Klyosov, 2008a, b), they continued moving westward toward Europe by two routes. One route went through the Balkans, where the haplogroup R1b1b2 is recorded at about 4,000 years ago (a formal calculation gives 4050 ± 890 years ago). In Sardinia, it dates from the 5,025 ± 630 years ago, Sicily 4,550 ± 1020 years ago, in Italy 4,125 ± 500 years ago, in Slovenia 4,250 ± 600 years ago. Another route went through the Middle East (the common ancestor of the modern carriers of the haplogroup R1b1b2 in Lebanon dates back to 5,300 ± 700 years ago, among the modern Jews 5,150 ± 620 years ago), then on across the North Africa (Algerian Berbers 3,875 ± 670 years ago) to the Atlantic Ocean and on to the Iberian Peninsula (3,750 ± 380 years ago), and further on to Europe (Klyosov, 2009a).

It is very likely that carriers of R1b1b2 reached Iberia 4,800-4,500 years before present, but then they had passed a “population bottleneck”, and reappeared again (through a few survived DNA-lineages) 3,750 ± 380 years ago. This is when a common ancestor of the present-day Basques lived.

Approximately 3,600 years ago that haplogroup is noted in the British Isles. This is the movement of Beaker culture - from the Iberian Peninsula in the British Isles and on the European continent. They are the ancestors of the Proto-Celtics and Proto-Italics, and, probably, Proto-Picts and other “Proto”-R1b1b2 peoples in Europe
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 04:13:09 AM by Heber » Logged

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R1b1a2a1a1b4  L459+ L21+ DF21+ DF13+ U198- U106- P66- P314.2- M37- M222- L96- L513- L48- L44- L4- L226- L2- L196- L195- L193- L192.1- L176.2- L165- L159.2- L148- L144- L130- L1-
Paternal L21* DF21


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Jean M
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2012, 05:55:00 AM »

Regarding Iberia, what are everyone's opinions on R1b's initial presence there?  

Well you know my view - Copper Age. I see R1b moving up the Danube to the Carpathian Basin, splitting up along the way, with some people moving into Illyria and others (The Stelae People)  through Illyria to Northern Italy and then taking the coastal route to Iberia. Another route led out of the Carpathian Basin to the head of the Danube, settling north of the Alps. Both routes eventually led to the British Isles, but L21 appears to be on the overland route, don't you think?

There is Bell Beaker material in Morocco. I don't have a date for it, but Bell Beaker is of course later than the first arrival of copper technology in Iberia, so presumably it represents exploration across the Strait of Gibraltar long after the first arrival in Iberia. 
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 06:08:14 AM by Jean M » Logged
rms2
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2012, 06:32:45 AM »

Bodies of water can be obstacles, but they also can be ways around and past other, more formidable, obstacles. In other words, the Med has long been a connector more than a divider, and it is possible to float some pretty heavy stuff and thereby transport it far more easily by water than over land. I don't see why some R1b couldn't have coasted along the northern shore of the Med (or the southern shore or both) all the way west to Iberia.

I'm not saying that is what happened, but it very well could have happened, especially given the apparent maritime nature of some of R1b's distribution in the North Atlantic.

Like I said when I started this thread last night, I haven't thought this all the way through (we can do that together), but my impression of late is of a lot of P312 SNP diversity in Iberia as opposed to other places, which are generally much more of one thing than they are of another.

I realize Iberia is probably overwhelmingly DF27 or even Z196, but there seems to be a lot of all the rest of the P312 gang there, as well. I realize that could be because Iberia is an historical cul-de-sac, the bag end of the European Peninsula, where things tend to collect.
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Jean M
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« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2012, 07:39:32 AM »

I realize that could be because Iberia is an historical cul-de-sac, the bag end of the European Peninsula, where things tend to collect.

Yes - all the later migrations muddy the waters. We can expect the long-distance trading routes across the whole Bell Beaker range to mix things up a bit. This trade intensified in the Late Bronze Age. From approximately 1300 to 700 BC prestigious items were exchanged over long distances. The major centres were southern England and Ireland, northwestern France, and northwestern Iberia.

Urnfield extended into north-eastern Iberia. In the later Iron Age there seem to have been movements of Celts from Gaul into Iberia, giving their name to the Gállego River, etc. (See The Celts in the Iberian Peninsula.) In the 6th C AD there was migration from SW Britain to Galicia, creating a colony called Britonia. In historic times there are long ties between England and Portugal dating from the marriage of Philippa of Lancaster to Joao I, which came in handy in the Peninsula Wars.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 07:46:40 AM by Jean M » Logged
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« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2012, 07:48:21 AM »

I just dont know at present.  The main out of Iberia windows were the Magdalenian (now defunct) and the bell beaker phenomenon.  There were also Bronze Age trade connections but I dont see that as the major source of the overwhelming amount of L21 in the Celtic fringe.  I would be extremely wary of maps of megalithic tombs too.  There are far more differences than similarities including date, burial customers, basic material culture etc.  There were probably contacts and some ideas spreading but I dont think we should get carried away.  So, if there is any out of Iberia model that is capable of explaining the P312 phenomenon it can only be beaker.  However, it remains to be seen if beaker really did originate in Iberia (dating recently been questioned again) and more importantly some believe that the real beaker spread of importance was some sort of secondary take off point east of Iberia from (for want of a better word) hybrid beaker-corded ware groups.  So, the problem with tying P312 with beakers remains that the beaker phenomenon remains as problematic an issue that the DNA ones.  

One thing I would feel strongly is that I feel it is very hard to believe that P312 and U106 originated in Iberia and Poland respectively when they have an immediate close ancestor in L11.  That is hard to make sense of.  Its not impossible but clearly a more intermediate origin point is easier to envisage.  Also, variance does not seem to support an Iberian origin or a Med. route and there remains the question of the massive geographical leap between the areas L23 is concentrated (Asian Minor, Caucuses and SE Europe) and Iberia.  It still seems easier for me to envisage L11 somewhere in central Europe.  
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rms2
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« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2012, 08:00:41 AM »

. . .  

One thing I would feel strongly is that I feel it is very hard to believe that P312 and U106 originated in Iberia and Poland respectively when they have an immediate close ancestor in L11.  That is hard to make sense of.  Its not impossible but clearly a more intermediate origin point is easier to envisage.  Also, variance does not seem to support an Iberian origin or a Med. route and there remains the question of the massive geographical leap between the areas L23 is concentrated (Asian Minor, Caucuses and SE Europe) and Iberia.  It still seems easier for me to envisage L11 somewhere in central Europe.  

That is an excellent point that had slipped my mind.
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« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2012, 08:36:38 AM »

. . .  

One thing I would feel strongly is that I feel it is very hard to believe that P312 and U106 originated in Iberia and Poland respectively when they have an immediate close ancestor in L11. That is hard to make sense of.  Its not impossible but clearly a more intermediate origin point is easier to envisage.  Also, variance does not seem to support an Iberian origin or a Med. route and there remains the question of the massive geographical leap between the areas L23 is concentrated (Asian Minor, Caucuses and SE Europe) and Iberia.  It still seems easier for me to envisage L11 somewhere in central Europe.  

That is an excellent point that had slipped my mind.

And that's why knowing that the first carrier of U106 was DYS390=24 is important: it reinforces the notion that these SNPs probably sprang up within a short time period and in short proximity of one another.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 08:37:05 AM by Richard Rocca » Logged

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« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2012, 09:29:01 AM »

. . .  

One thing I would feel strongly is that I feel it is very hard to believe that P312 and U106 originated in Iberia and Poland respectively when they have an immediate close ancestor in L11. That is hard to make sense of.  Its not impossible but clearly a more intermediate origin point is easier to envisage.  Also, variance does not seem to support an Iberian origin or a Med. route and there remains the question of the massive geographical leap between the areas L23 is concentrated (Asian Minor, Caucuses and SE Europe) and Iberia.  It still seems easier for me to envisage L11 somewhere in central Europe.  

That is an excellent point that had slipped my mind.

And that's why knowing that the first carrier of U106 was DYS390=24 is important: it reinforces the notion that these SNPs probably sprang up within a short time period and in short proximity of one another.

Do we know that, or do we assume it based on a "modal" that is itself a reconstruction, from the examples we know, of the descendants that survive?  I don't think we have a lot of aDNA that tells us the original allele count of U106; may be mistaken about that.  I suspect it's more of a "best guess," like a lot of this science to date.  Some of which will prove to have been correct.
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« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2012, 09:42:57 AM »

If I were a hunter I’d say that I get you all in my bag.
   
You are talking and talking about R-U106, R-P312, but nobody is minding to R-L51, which is the ancestor of they all? It is 4% in Central-North Italy and nowhere at the same level. A little bit more than elsewhere in Switzerland and Germany, where the first migration from Italy happened.
A friend of mine has just spoken to me of a friend of his: Malagodi. He is in the “ht 35 Project”, tested for M269 and negative for P310 and P311. He is clearly an R-L51 and I have invited him to test for this SNP. Have you given a glance to his values? A GD of 23 out of 67 markers from the “modal” of R-L51 (you know that I think that the modal is an artifice, only the most diffused values, with no warranty they are the original ones). DYS19=13, DYS437=17, DYS455=10, DYS442=10, DYF496S1=12, DYS487=14, etc.

If I were a hunter I’d say that I get you all in my bag.   
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« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2012, 10:09:41 AM »

Do we know that, or do we assume it based on a "modal" that is itself a reconstruction, from the examples we know, of the descendants that survive?  I don't think we have a lot of aDNA that tells us the original allele count of U106; may be mistaken about that.  I suspect it's more of a "best guess," like a lot of this science to date.  Some of which will prove to have been correct.

Agreed. We don't have any confirmed U106 aDNA. The common ancestor argument seems a lot stronger. It looks like both P312 and U106 are part of a huge population expansion that happened relatively quickly.  
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« Reply #17 on: April 21, 2012, 11:06:03 AM »

I think he has R1b in north Africa before Iberia, which I don't see evidence for.
Yes, that's the one I don't get.... hop scotching N. Africa to get to Iberia....

and, well, I still think P312 and U106 came overland more than by sea.

Overland is more likely, imo.  I have advocated a Danubian route for R1b, but a route south of the alps through the Po valley and into southern France seems probable as well.  

Regarding Iberia, what are everyone's opinions on R1b's initial presence there?  Beaker colonists? Urnfield?  I tend to think the age estimates seen for various snp's support something earlier than Urnfield like Bell Beaker.  I'm not sure about the late neolithic inhabitants being R1b in Iberia, even if the beaker ceramics made it there early.

Using Ken Nordvedt's methodology, I've got 95% confidence# that the interclade L11* man who is the ancestor of both U106 and P312 lived between 3200BC and 1800BC. Since that's an interclade age I have no reason to fudge that back in time because of expectation of non-representative samples.  The most probable date is 2500 BC with 68% confidence between 2800BC and 2200BC.

This chart displays interclade ages for most of the larger L11 subclades.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/R-P312Project/files/Haplogroup_Timeline_R-L11_Subclades.gif
(You do have to join the Yahoo Group to get it but you can turn the viewing options to "web  only" so that you don't get any email messages.)

That's not early Neolithic for sure and I think that is too late for Urnfield.  I think that leaves us with the Dairymen and the Beaker folks to consider.

None of this means P312 couldn't have expanded, to a great extent, from Iberia, I just think the early P312 or the pre-P312 L11* guys got there mostly overland.

Look at U106. U106 does not appear to be a Mediterranean seafarer. As far south as I can see U106 coming from would be Cisalpine Gaul (northern Italy and the Alps) or along the Danube.

# I am assuming germ-line mutation rates are appropriate versus evolutionary.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 11:29:38 AM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>S6365>L705.2(&CTS11744,CTS6621)
Richard Rocca
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« Reply #18 on: April 21, 2012, 11:11:13 AM »

If I were a hunter I’d say that I get you all in my bag.
   
You are talking and talking about R-U106, R-P312, but nobody is minding to R-L51, which is the ancestor of they all? It is 4% in Central-North Italy and nowhere at the same level. A little bit more than elsewhere in Switzerland and Germany, where the first migration from Italy happened.
A friend of mine has just spoken to me of a friend of his: Malagodi. He is in the “ht 35 Project”, tested for M269 and negative for P310 and P311. He is clearly an R-L51 and I have invited him to test for this SNP. Have you given a glance to his values? A GD of 23 out of 67 markers from the “modal” of R-L51 (you know that I think that the modal is an artifice, only the most diffused values, with no warranty they are the original ones). DYS19=13, DYS437=17, DYS455=10, DYS442=10, DYF496S1=12, DYS487=14, etc.

If I were a hunter I’d say that I get you all in my bag.

L51+L11- can be calculated based on the supplementary data Busby provided, and L51+L11- seems a lot more French to me. I've added the 1KG Tuscany samples in as well:

PopulationL51+L11-
Alpes De Haute Provence6.5%
France (Central)6.3%
Ireland East6.3%
South Central France5.6%
West Sicily5.2%
South West France4.5%
Alps4.6%
Poland South4.5%
Central Portugal4.1%
Tuscany (1KG)3.9%
North Italy3.1%
Italy (Central)2.9%
Italy North2.4%
South East France2.2%
Switzerland (Lower Rhone)2.0%

PS - If someone could check my math (Mikewww?), I would appreciate it.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 11:22:08 AM by Richard Rocca » Logged

Paternal: R1b-U152+L2*
Maternal: H
Maliclavelli
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« Reply #19 on: April 21, 2012, 12:19:49 PM »

L51+L11- can be calculated based on the supplementary data Busby provided, and L51+L11- seems a lot more French to me. I've added the 1KG Tuscany samples in as well:

PopulationL51+L11-
Alpes De Haute Provence6.5%
France (Central)6.3%
Ireland East6.3%
South Central France5.6%
West Sicily5.2%
South West France4.5%
Alps4.6%
Poland South4.5%
Central Portugal4.1%
Tuscany (1KG)3.9%
North Italy3.1%
Italy (Central)2.9%
Italy North2.4%
South East France2.2%
Switzerland (Lower Rhone)2.0%

PS - If someone could check my math (Mikewww?), I would appreciate it.
Your data are anyway interesting. Of course I should check them, which are in contrast with the map of Argiedude, based also upon my researches. The haplotypes published on “ht 35 project” seem uniform if compared to this of Malagodi, and we should exam their variance. Also if it were true, it didn’t exclude an origin in Italy and a diffusion Northward. This should be examined by other analyses. Anyway also from this it seems to me that we are in Europe: I have always said that Italy, Spain, France is the same for me. But, please, don’t speak anymore of Middle East. If hg. R came from Asia, it came many thousands of years ago and all the European R is European.
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MtDNA: K1a1b1e

GoldenHind
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« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2012, 01:50:57 PM »

. . .  

One thing I would feel strongly is that I feel it is very hard to believe that P312 and U106 originated in Iberia and Poland respectively when they have an immediate close ancestor in L11. That is hard to make sense of.  Its not impossible but clearly a more intermediate origin point is easier to envisage.  Also, variance does not seem to support an Iberian origin or a Med. route and there remains the question of the massive geographical leap between the areas L23 is concentrated (Asian Minor, Caucuses and SE Europe) and Iberia.  It still seems easier for me to envisage L11 somewhere in central Europe.  

That is an excellent point that had slipped my mind.

It hadn't slipped mine.

If I remember correctly, Vince V once said P312 and U106 were born within a very few generations of each other, and Nordtvedt has said he believes they were born very close to each other. Maybe they are both wrong, but I tend to defer to their opinions.

I proposed some time ago that the most likely origin point for P312 was somewhere west of the Black Sea, probably somewhere along the Danube. I haven't seen anything to change my mind.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 02:07:31 PM by GoldenHind » Logged
Heber
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« Reply #21 on: April 21, 2012, 01:56:51 PM »

The Balkens was on the Maritime and River routes so it could be a logical splitting point. Belgrade for example was a large Celtic settlement on the Danube and had easy access to the sea.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 02:08:48 PM by Heber » Logged

Heber


 
R1b1a2a1a1b4  L459+ L21+ DF21+ DF13+ U198- U106- P66- P314.2- M37- M222- L96- L513- L48- L44- L4- L226- L2- L196- L195- L193- L192.1- L176.2- L165- L159.2- L148- L144- L130- L1-
Paternal L21* DF21


Maternal H1C1



alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #22 on: April 21, 2012, 03:00:33 PM »

. . .  

One thing I would feel strongly is that I feel it is very hard to believe that P312 and U106 originated in Iberia and Poland respectively when they have an immediate close ancestor in L11. That is hard to make sense of.  Its not impossible but clearly a more intermediate origin point is easier to envisage.  Also, variance does not seem to support an Iberian origin or a Med. route and there remains the question of the massive geographical leap between the areas L23 is concentrated (Asian Minor, Caucuses and SE Europe) and Iberia.  It still seems easier for me to envisage L11 somewhere in central Europe.  

That is an excellent point that had slipped my mind.

And that's why knowing that the first carrier of U106 was DYS390=24 is important: it reinforces the notion that these SNPs probably sprang up within a short time period and in short proximity of one another.

Do we know that, or do we assume it based on a "modal" that is itself a reconstruction, from the examples we know, of the descendants that survive?  I don't think we have a lot of aDNA that tells us the original allele count of U106; may be mistaken about that.  I suspect it's more of a "best guess," like a lot of this science to date.  Some of which will prove to have been correct.

The Poland/eastern Europe thing is based on variance which indicates U106 is far older east of Germany.  Variance however would seem to place p312 oldest in France or Germany.  The only doubt I have is that it might look different once it can be calculated when its all broken down into clades
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« Reply #23 on: April 21, 2012, 03:01:53 PM »

I think much of this is based on the assumption that what is now catagorized as DF27* in Iberia is an older form of P312. Firstly, we don't know that DF27* in Iberia is any older than DF27* in northern Europe. Secondly, DF27* in Iberia may ultimately turn out to be primarily some as yet unidentified subclade under DF27 which is comparatively young, such as M153.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 03:02:55 PM by GoldenHind » Logged
rms2
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« Reply #24 on: April 21, 2012, 03:58:18 PM »

I wasn't assuming that at all. I was just looking at the varieties of P312 present in Iberia.

I am pretty sure no modern men carry old nodal forms of y haplogroups minus any modern, downstream SNPs.
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