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Author Topic: R-L21: Three new subclades - Big Kahuna, DF13, and DF49, DF63  (Read 9129 times)
Mark Jost
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« Reply #25 on: April 21, 2012, 12:44:38 PM »

That is what I was thinking but I can not be sure. Maybe Greg can check with the Thomas.
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148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
seferhabahir
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« Reply #26 on: April 23, 2012, 01:34:29 PM »


DF63 (the 5% probability one) is now available for order from FTDNA.

DF13 (the 95% probability one) is not yet listed as available.
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Y-DNA: R-L21 (Z251+ L583+)

mtDNA: J1c7a

Jdean
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« Reply #27 on: April 23, 2012, 01:59:42 PM »


DF63 (the 5% probability one) is now available for order from FTDNA.

DF13 (the 95% probability one) is not yet listed as available.

I'm still waiting for my DF41 neg result to come through but I'm going to hold out for DF13, if I tested neg for DF63 I'd have to order it for piece of mind anyway :)
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Y-DNA R-DF49*
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Kit No. 117897
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seferhabahir
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« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2012, 11:56:43 AM »


DF63 (the 5% probability one) is now available for order from FTDNA.

DF13 (the 95% probability one) is not yet listed as available.

I think there are now eight or nine DF63 tests in the queue at FTDNA. Like I said on another forum, it's like betting 0-00 on the "roooolette" wheel (seems the real spelling is blocked on this site).
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Y-DNA: R-L21 (Z251+ L583+)

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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2012, 12:07:26 PM »


DF63 (the 5% probability one) is now available for order from FTDNA.

DF13 (the 95% probability one) is not yet listed as available.

I think there are now eight or nine DF63 tests in the queue at FTDNA. Like I said on another forum, it's like betting 0-00 on the "roooolette" wheel (seems the real spelling is blocked on this site).

Do we really know that the 5% probability estimate is a good estimate?  We've been wrong on predictions before.  We don't know what we don't know, which is why I advocate testing when it is available to provide a firm answer and if it fits your hobbyist spending plans.

I was told not to waste time testing my current terminal SNP. I had written it off as a lost cause by the time the result had come in.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2012, 12:09:05 PM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
Mark Jost
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« Reply #30 on: April 24, 2012, 02:17:00 PM »

I am a such a believer of SNP discovery, I put my money where my mouth is! My personal desire to find my Subclade SNP have been around since L21 was found in 2009 and I was previously P312 - xM222  in 2008. Sure it's a gamble.

There are almost 3500 people who have tested L21+ or newer.  1945 guys are sitting on the sidelines with their results to date. There about 33 die hard testers who are L21* or **. Prior to the 1000 Genome project data availability, it was hit or miss finding new SNP via the WTY project  and its Y location expansion testing. The efforts to extend the knowledge of subclades using haplotypes required extended length orders, again, lead by these leaders and those who documented the results. The 'Researcher' has made significant inroads of identifying new SNP's which upon review is unparalleled all thanks to the Genome project testing and access to their samples. I can only imagine what the "Researcher's" costs have been to date, not charging a dime to use end users. The new WTY '454' machine may out do everything else. We wait and see.



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148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
seferhabahir
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« Reply #31 on: April 24, 2012, 02:40:35 PM »

DF63 (the 5% probability one) is now available for order from FTDNA.

DF13 (the 95% probability one) is not yet listed as available.

I think there are now eight or nine DF63 tests in the queue at FTDNA. Like I said on another forum, it's like betting 0-00 on the "roooolette" wheel (seems the real spelling is blocked on this site).

Do we really know that the 5% probability estimate is a good estimate?  We've been wrong on predictions before.  We don't know what we don't know, which is why I advocate testing when it is available to provide a firm answer and if it fits your hobbyist spending plans.


For now, I can only go by what is on GregRM's chart where 2 out of 28 testers show DF63 and the rest don't. I guess that's technically 7%. Until more tests come in with some STR values, I would think that 5-10% is probably a reasonable rule-of-thumb, especially since DF13 seems to contain all the big 5 (or 6 if you count DF41).
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #32 on: April 24, 2012, 03:29:26 PM »

DF63 (the 5% probability one) is now available for order from FTDNA.
DF13 (the 95% probability one) is not yet listed as available.
I think there are now eight or nine DF63 tests in the queue at FTDNA. Like I said on another forum, it's like betting 0-00 on the "roooolette" wheel (seems the real spelling is blocked on this site).
Do we really know that the 5% probability estimate is a good estimate?  We've been wrong on predictions before.  We don't know what we don't know, which is why I advocate testing when it is available to provide a firm answer and if it fits your hobbyist spending plans.
For now, I can only go by what is on GregRM's chart where 2 out of 28 testers show DF63 and the rest don't. I guess that's technically 7%. Until more tests come in with some STR values, I would think that 5-10% is probably a reasonable rule-of-thumb, especially since DF13 seems to contain all the big 5 (or 6 if you count DF41).
My point is that whether it is 5% or 7%, or 11% or .01% - we really don't know.  The current hit rate is 7%, but that could be biased by a number of factors. At these low numbers tested, we don't have an adequate sample to do any true probability percentages.

We need much more exploratory testing, in my opinion, that's all.  I think GregRM had some other information as well, but still, I don't think we know too much yet about about DF63 and DF41 yet.  Sorry, not trying to sound critical, but if someone is just reading along I don't want them to think we know with any great deal of certainty that 5% is the probability.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2012, 04:47:26 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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cmblandford
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« Reply #33 on: April 24, 2012, 03:35:52 PM »

All data brings some information with it.  But if DF13 is really 95% then those who are L-21*now and DF13+ after the test will still be looking for a low percentage SNP to significantly refine the ancestry.  Re. L459 and Z245.  May as well test for DF63 now since L-21* DF13+ testers will be doing it again anyway.  With an unknown number of future SNP's to be found, delaying is just postponing the inevitable.  

Like golf, SNP hunting is the game for a lifetime.  I love it.  :-)

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Y-DNA:  R-DF13*


Surname Project:  Blandford

Kit:  ft115893   Ysearch:  EYSPZ


Earliest Known Ancestor:  Thomas Blanford; Dorset, England; born 1648


seferhabahir
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« Reply #34 on: April 24, 2012, 05:38:34 PM »

My point is that whether it is 5% or 7%, or 11% or .01% - we really don't know.  The current hit rate is 7%, but that could be biased by a number of factors. At these low numbers tested, we don't have an adequate sample to do any true probability percentages.

We need much more exploratory testing, in my opinion, that's all.  I think GregRM had some other information as well, but still, I don't think we know too much yet about about DF63 and DF41 yet.  Sorry, not trying to sound critical, but if someone is just reading along I don't want them to think we know with any great deal of certainty that 5% is the probability.

Fair enough. I actually agree with you that we don't have a large enough sample size to make definitive statements. It would be fascinating if a large proportion of L21* turned out to be DF63+, but I just don't think they will. I know gut feel is not a very good argument, so let's see how the early DF63 testers turn out. The first none 1000 Genomes data point (our latest WTY R-L21) turned up DF63- as you know.
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #35 on: May 02, 2012, 12:44:07 PM »

My understanding is that DF49 is now available for testing.

I don't think we should underestimate DF49.  The anonymous researcher tracking the 1000 HG project has this as upstream of DF23, which is upstream of M222.

We need at least one DF23+ M222- (DF23*) guy to test to confirm DF23 is a subclade of DF49.

I think any R-L21* person is a candidate for DF49.

We know that DF23 is old. DF23 has the highest interclade ages with the other large subclades of R-L21.  We know (or at least the researcher says) that DF49 is older than DF23.

The only common off-modal that can be found among a very high percentage of DF23 people is DYS481 where a high number is a potential indicator of DF23+ (as well as M222+ along with some other STR off-modals.)

481 is a fairly fast mover so I think it is possible to find DF49* people who have no commonality (STR-wise) with DF23 and M222 people.  

Any R-L21* person could be DF49.

« Last Edit: May 02, 2012, 12:52:16 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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eochaidh
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« Reply #36 on: May 02, 2012, 12:59:57 PM »

My understanding is that DF49 is now available for testing.

I don't think we should underestimate DF49.  The anonymous researcher tracking the 1000 HG project has this as upstream of DF23, which is upstream of M222.

We need at least one DF23+ M222- (DF23*) guy to test to confirm DF23 is a subclade of DF49.

I think any R-L21* person is a candidate for DF49.

We know that DF23 is old. DF23 has the highest interclade ages with the other large subclades of R-L21.  We know (or at least the researcher says) that DF49 is older than DF23.

The only common off-modal that can be found among a very high percentage of DF23 people is DYS481 where a high number is a potential indicator of DF23+ (as well as M222+ along with some other STR off-modals.)

481 is a fairly fast mover so I think it is possible to find DF49* people who have no commonality (STR-wise) with DF23 and M222 people.  

Any R-L21* person could be DF49.



Like the idiot that I am, I got talked into testing for L744. So, I'll hope another DF23+, M222- guy will test for DF49.
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mtDNA: T2g
Mark Jost
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« Reply #37 on: May 02, 2012, 01:38:06 PM »

DF63 in progress (slim chance to have this one anyway)

DF49 ordered

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148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
rms2
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« Reply #38 on: May 16, 2012, 08:40:59 PM »

We had 15 DF63 results come in yesterday, all negative.

I see one DF63 result before those, and it was also negative.

I might have missed somebody, but I don't think so.
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seferhabahir
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« Reply #39 on: May 16, 2012, 10:39:46 PM »

We had 15 DF63 results come in yesterday, all negative.

I see one DF63 result before those, and it was also negative.

I might have missed somebody, but I don't think so.

Mine was in that same batch but is still pending. I think my odds have gone up with all 16 to date testing negative. Somebody has to show up positive sooner or later, might as well be me.
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cmblandford
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« Reply #40 on: May 17, 2012, 03:46:32 AM »

Tested DF63-, I think I will test for DF13.  If that is negative I can pause for a while.  DYS481 is on modal (22) so DF49 may not be a good bet.  DF13+ will leave me about where I am now.  Feel like I must be getting somewhere, but where?

Wonder if Hamlet was L-21*, as I recall he always wondered about his father, or was it his mother.  Oh well .......  One thing is for  sure, I'm not Irish. 
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Y-DNA:  R-DF13*


Surname Project:  Blandford

Kit:  ft115893   Ysearch:  EYSPZ


Earliest Known Ancestor:  Thomas Blanford; Dorset, England; born 1648


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« Reply #41 on: May 17, 2012, 08:09:14 PM »

Three more DF63- results this evening. If I haven't missed anyone, we are 0 for 19 on DF63 thus far.
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cmblandford
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« Reply #42 on: May 22, 2012, 04:05:42 PM »

Any estimate as to when FTDNA will have DF13 SNP test available?
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Y-DNA:  R-DF13*


Surname Project:  Blandford

Kit:  ft115893   Ysearch:  EYSPZ


Earliest Known Ancestor:  Thomas Blanford; Dorset, England; born 1648


Mike Walsh
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« Reply #43 on: May 22, 2012, 04:25:05 PM »

Tested DF63-, I think I will test for DF13.  If that is negative I can pause for a while. ...
I think this is a good strategy.  It appears that the group of people who are L21+ DF13- may not be very big. If so, any new SNP "X" that is found as both positive and negative somewhere under DF13+ could be inferred as downstream of DF13+. Hence, no need to test...  might as well let the predicted to be larger group of DF13* do some of the exploration first.

On the other hand if you end up being DF13*, you've got a new terminal SNP.
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rms2
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« Reply #44 on: May 22, 2012, 08:40:40 PM »

Three more DF63- results this evening. If I haven't missed anyone, we are 0 for 19 on DF63 thus far.

Six more DF63- results this evening, and no positives.

That makes us 0 for 25 on DF63 so far.
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« Reply #45 on: May 22, 2012, 08:47:51 PM »

Three more DF63- results this evening. If I haven't missed anyone, we are 0 for 19 on DF63 thus far.

Six more DF63- results this evening, and no positives.

That makes us 0 for 25 on DF63 so far.

Ouch.  I think the anonymous researcher predicted about 5% of L21* to be DF63. It looks like that might even be a stretch. I hope someone hits DF63+ before it disappears into forgotten land.  It could be very important since it is the only known subclade of L21 that isn't thought to be DF13+.

I don't think this was intentional by FTDNA because my understanding is that testing for DF13 takes extra steps, but it would have been nice to have that first if it is the "Big Kahuna." From a top down testing perspective, it might have been beneficial to test for DF13 first.
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« Reply #46 on: May 22, 2012, 08:49:48 PM »

I see some early tests for DF49 have come in too. 

They do seem to confirm that DF49 is upstream of M222 and DF23. I wonder who the first DF49* person will be?
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seferhabahir
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« Reply #47 on: May 22, 2012, 09:36:04 PM »

Six more DF63- results this evening, and no positives.

That makes us 0 for 25 on DF63 so far.

Ouch.  I think the anonymous researcher predicted about 5% of L21* to be DF63. It looks like that might even be a stretch. I hope someone hits DF63+ before it disappears into forgotten land.  It could be very important since it is the only known subclade of L21 that isn't thought to be DF13+.

I don't think this was intentional by FTDNA because my understanding is that testing for DF13 takes extra steps, but it would have been nice to have that first if it is the "Big Kahuna." From a top down testing perspective, it might have been beneficial to test for DF13 first.

There's still hope (maybe). My DF63 result is not back yet, but I'm guessing I will end up DF63- and DF13- as well, retaining what will soon be a pretty rare L21** status.
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cmblandford
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« Reply #48 on: May 23, 2012, 04:22:07 PM »

Quote
retaining what will soon be a pretty rare L21** status.

That would be a very interesting placement.
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Y-DNA:  R-DF13*


Surname Project:  Blandford

Kit:  ft115893   Ysearch:  EYSPZ


Earliest Known Ancestor:  Thomas Blanford; Dorset, England; born 1648


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« Reply #49 on: May 23, 2012, 07:42:26 PM »

Two more DF63 results this evening, both negative.

We are 0 for 27 on DF63 so far.
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