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rms2
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« Reply #25 on: August 05, 2012, 05:08:07 PM »

Diversity equalls origin.Z156 diversity in Ireland is highest.

If that's true, then many prehistoric Amerindians were R1b of various kinds.

And do people with English, Scots, and Anglo-Norman surnames count as "Irish" for purposes of determining "origin"?
« Last Edit: August 05, 2012, 05:10:26 PM by rms2 » Logged

eochaidh
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« Reply #26 on: August 05, 2012, 05:41:49 PM »

This is the first time I've ever seen diversity NOT win the day! A house of cards must be falling :)
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Mark Jost
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« Reply #27 on: August 05, 2012, 06:06:03 PM »

I'd not seen any TMRCA estimates for R-U106> Z156 and Z305/Z306  Okay, I'm a non swimmer in the deep end of the pool, but in April I made a stab at TMRCA using Klyosov's formula and the haplotypes in Charles Moore's 111 Sandbox spreadsheet from earlier that month.

I only used 67 markers. I treated DYS464c=16 as modal, And I only used the first McMullen and McMillan entries.
For Z156 I counted 542 mutations in 41 haplotypes
TMRCA = (542/41/.12)25 = 2754 years.

I also looked at all the tested and assumed Z305/Z306 entries and counted 330 mutations in 33 haplotypes
TMRCA = (330/33/.12)25 = 2083 years.

Anyone with corrections or alternatives please jump in.

I just finished modifying MikeW earlier Gen7.1 which used KenN's Gen7, to the new Gen111T engine with mods to the various Internal Excel variance formula's such as Var, VarP and TTest,2,3; this weekend. Using 'Cleaned' 111 marker U106 HTs from MikeW's U106 spreadsheet. My number of 111 haplotyoes is, I am sure, much smaller.

YrsPerGen*   Count   Coalescence Age   Generations   StdDev   YBP   + - YBP   Founder's Age   Generations   StdDev   YBP   + - YBP   Max   LTSD   VAR
30   N=17   Clade B: U106>Z156 All  GB Coal.=   88.8   19.1   2,663.1   573.1   GB=   94.3   19.7   2,829.6   590.8   3,420.3   NA   21.6

YrsPerGen*   Count   Coalescence Age   Generations   StdDev   YBP   + - YBP   Founder's Age   Generations   StdDev   YBP   + - YBP   Max   LTSD   VAR
30   N=13   Clade B: U106>Z305 All  GB Coal.=   75.2   17.6   2,255.1   527.4   GB=   81.4   18.3   2,443.1   548.9   2,992.0   NA   18.3


MJost
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148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
eochaidh
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« Reply #28 on: August 05, 2012, 06:14:17 PM »

Diversity equalls origin.Z156 diversity in Ireland is highest.

If that's true, then many prehistoric Amerindians were R1b of various kinds.



This will be the new argument against diversity!
« Last Edit: August 05, 2012, 06:14:38 PM by eochaidh » Logged

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rms2
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« Reply #29 on: August 05, 2012, 06:14:41 PM »

This is the first time I've ever seen diversity NOT win the day! A house of cards must be falling :)

Diversity cannot be the sole determinant of a haplogroup's or subclade's origin. That should be obvious.

An area that receives input from different sources is likely to have higher haplotype diversity than even some of those source regions. So, history has to be part of the profile. That is why we don't make too much out of the R1b haplotype diversity in North America, for example.

Z156 is represented in Ireland by people with English, Scots, and Anglo-Norman surnames, with perhaps one Gaelic Irish surname among them, Boylan.

Should Z156 haplotype diversity for Ireland, with an eye to determining that subclade's place of origin, include the haplotypes of persons with non-Irish surnames, in other words, persons whose ultimate origin is likely not Irish?
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rms2
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« Reply #30 on: August 05, 2012, 06:28:27 PM »

This is the first time I've ever seen diversity NOT win the day! A house of cards must be falling :)

Diversity cannot be the sole determinant of a haplogroup's or subclade's origin. That should be obvious.

An area that receives input from different sources is likely to have higher haplotype diversity than even some of those source regions. So, history has to be part of the profile. That is why we don't make too much out of the R1b haplotype diversity in North America, for example.

Z156 is represented in Ireland by people with English, Scots, and Anglo-Norman surnames, with perhaps one Gaelic Irish surname among them, Boylan.

Should Z156 haplotype diversity for Ireland, with an eye to determining that subclade's place of origin, include the haplotypes of persons with non-Irish surnames, in other words, persons whose ultimate origin is likely not Irish?



Even that one Gaelic surname, Boylan, is not exclusively Z156 or even U106.

There are other Boylans who are L21+.
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eochaidh
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« Reply #31 on: August 05, 2012, 06:36:36 PM »

Z156 may have been in Ireland long before surnames. Perhaps Z156 found among those with English and Scots names comes from the Irish movement to Scotland and Wales. Or, Irish Z156 may have adopted non-Irish names to improve their status.

I'm just using arguments I've seen before on these forums.
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rms2
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« Reply #32 on: August 05, 2012, 06:37:41 PM »

Z156 may have been in Ireland long before surnames. Perhaps Z156 found among those with English and Scots names comes from the Irish movement to Scotland and Wales. Or, Irish Z156 may have adopted non-Irish names to improve their status.

I'm just using arguments I've seen before on these forums.

Better to argue something that fits the case and makes sense, or at least something you actually believe is true.
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rms2
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« Reply #33 on: August 05, 2012, 06:44:07 PM »

It's likely that even the L21 haplotype diversity in Ireland has been inflated through the presence of English, Scots, and Anglo-Norman haplotypes.
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Jdean
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« Reply #34 on: August 05, 2012, 07:09:05 PM »

There is an STR pattern for Z156:

DYS392=13 or 14 which indicates R1b
DYS492=13 which indicates U106
then
DYS390=>24 and DYS464c=16 (thank you Charles Moore)

Its not perfect but when unscientifically eyeballing the data in the U106 project at FTDNA, I was surprised how good a set of indicators these are for Z156 and its subclades, and they do not include many non Z156.

DYS390=23 is closely associated with Z301 and its subclades, but again not perfect.

It will also catch an awful lot of Z18+ people
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« Reply #35 on: August 05, 2012, 07:27:01 PM »

There is an STR pattern for Z156:

DYS392=13 or 14 which indicates R1b
DYS492=13 which indicates U106
then
DYS390=>24 and DYS464c=16 (thank you Charles Moore)

Its not perfect but when unscientifically eyeballing the data in the U106 project at FTDNA, I was surprised how good a set of indicators these are for Z156 and its subclades, and they do not include many non Z156.

DYS390=23 is closely associated with Z301 and its subclades, but again not perfect.

It will also catch an awful lot of Z18+ people

Hmmm...You're right.  So are there any STR values modal to Z18+ that could be used to filter them out?
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« Reply #36 on: August 05, 2012, 07:40:04 PM »

There is an STR pattern for Z156:

DYS392=13 or 14 which indicates R1b
DYS492=13 which indicates U106
then
DYS390=>24 and DYS464c=16 (thank you Charles Moore)

Its not perfect but when unscientifically eyeballing the data in the U106 project at FTDNA, I was surprised how good a set of indicators these are for Z156 and its subclades, and they do not include many non Z156.

DYS390=23 is closely associated with Z301 and its subclades, but again not perfect.

It will also catch an awful lot of Z18+ people

Hmmm...You're right.  So are there any STR values modal to Z18+ that could be used to filter them out?

Lots, to late to post about them tonight, I've just driven 900 miles :)

If you look on the main page of the project they are all laid out, some more successful than others.
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« Reply #37 on: August 06, 2012, 11:44:36 AM »

The Z156 diversity does not include people with English or Scottish surnames. Then again diversity only works if it is found outside of Ireland. No subclade can have an Irish origin. LOL



Z156 may have been in Ireland long before surnames. Perhaps Z156 found among those with English and Scots names comes from the Irish movement to Scotland and Wales. Or, Irish Z156 may have adopted non-Irish names to improve their status.

I'm just using arguments I've seen before on these forums.
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rms2
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« Reply #38 on: August 06, 2012, 03:51:02 PM »

The Z156 diversity does not include people with English or Scottish surnames . . .


What did you have left, then?

One haplotype?
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« Reply #39 on: August 06, 2012, 04:06:39 PM »

Nelson Mandela was only one man that changed a Nation.There are others that I could mention. It is known as the power of one.
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« Reply #40 on: August 06, 2012, 04:15:49 PM »

Nelson Mandela was only one man that changed a Nation.There are others that I could mention. It is known as the power of one.

Great, but you can't squeeze diversity out of one haplotype.

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« Reply #41 on: August 07, 2012, 06:21:10 AM »

There are enough Irish Z156 tested to check the diversity.There are thousands of Irish L21 and L21 is not allowed to have an Irish origin.
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rms2
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« Reply #42 on: August 07, 2012, 11:13:12 AM »

There are enough Irish Z156 tested to check the diversity.There are thousands of Irish L21 and L21 is not allowed to have an Irish origin.

I've looked at the Z156 who list Ireland as place of ancestral origin. All but one or two of them have surnames that are evidently English or Scottish in origin. The rest of Z156 (a subclade of Z381) includes English, Germans, at least one Belgian, etc.

It isn't that "L21 is not allowed to have an Irish origin". We looked at that idea early on and concluded that it isn't likely that L21 originated in Ireland. It got there long long before U106 or Z156 did, but it probably did not begin there. For one thing, thus far there hasn't been a single Irishman tested for DF13 who has gotten a negative result. That could change, but so far Ireland appears to be a solid block of DF13 and DF13+ subclades.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2012, 11:13:38 AM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #43 on: August 07, 2012, 11:34:41 AM »

So you chose to ignore the U106 SNPs.
If you are right then there is only 300 years between U106 SNPs.


I'd not seen any TMRCA estimates for R-U106> Z156 and Z305/Z306  Okay, I'm a non swimmer in the deep end of the pool, but in April I made a stab at TMRCA using Klyosov's formula and the haplotypes in Charles Moore's 111 Sandbox spreadsheet from earlier that month.

I only used 67 markers. I treated DYS464c=16 as modal, And I only used the first McMullen and McMillan entries.
For Z156 I counted 542 mutations in 41 haplotypes
TMRCA = (542/41/.12)25 = 2754 years.

I also looked at all the tested and assumed Z305/Z306 entries and counted 330 mutations in 33 haplotypes
TMRCA = (330/33/.12)25 = 2083 years.

Anyone with corrections or alternatives please jump in.

I just finished modifying MikeW earlier Gen7.1 which used KenN's Gen7, to the new Gen111T engine with mods to the various Internal Excel variance formula's such as Var, VarP and TTest,2,3; this weekend. Using 'Cleaned' 111 marker U106 HTs from MikeW's U106 spreadsheet. My number of 111 haplotyoes is, I am sure, much smaller.

YrsPerGen*   Count   Coalescence Age   Generations   StdDev   YBP   + - YBP   Founder's Age   Generations   StdDev   YBP   + - YBP   Max   LTSD   VAR
30   N=17   Clade B: U106>Z156 All  GB Coal.=   88.8   19.1   2,663.1   573.1   GB=   94.3   19.7   2,829.6   590.8   3,420.3   NA   21.6

YrsPerGen*   Count   Coalescence Age   Generations   StdDev   YBP   + - YBP   Founder's Age   Generations   StdDev   YBP   + - YBP   Max   LTSD   VAR
30   N=13   Clade B: U106>Z305 All  GB Coal.=   75.2   17.6   2,255.1   527.4   GB=   81.4   18.3   2,443.1   548.9   2,992.0   NA   18.3


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« Reply #44 on: August 07, 2012, 02:23:40 PM »

Count   Coalescence Age   Generations   SD-Gen   YBP   + - YBP   Founder's Age   Generations   SD-Gen   YBP   + - YBP   Max   VAR
N=320   Clade A: U106 All  GA Coal.=   102.3   20.5   3,067.9   615.1   GA=   102.6   20.5   3,077.5   616.1   3,693.6   24.9
N=191   Clade B: U106>Z305 All  GB Coal.=   99.0   20.2   2,970.0   605.2   GB=   99.5   20.2   2,985.7   606.8   3,592.5   24.1
N=125   Clade B: U106>L48 All  GB Coal.=   97.5   20.0   2,926.0   600.7   GB=   98.3   20.1   2,949.6   603.2   3,552.8   23.7
N=17   Clade B: U106>Z156 All  GB Coal.=   88.8   19.1   2,663.1   573.1   GB=   94.3   19.7   2,829.6   590.8   3,420.3   21.6
N=26   Clade B: U106>L47 All  GB Coal.=   84.4   18.6   2,532.7   558.9   GB=   87.8   19.0   2,634.0   570.0   3,203.9   20.5
N=44   Clade B: U106>Z18 All  GB Coal.=   80.8   18.2   2,422.7   546.6   GB=   82.6   18.4   2,479.0   553.0   3,032.0   19.6
N=11   Clade B: U106>Z159 All  GB Coal.=   75.0   17.6   2,250.7   526.9   GB=   82.5   18.4   2,475.8   552.6   3,028.4   18.2
N=13   Clade B: U106>Z305 All  GB Coal.=   75.2   17.6   2,255.1   527.4   GB=   81.4   18.3   2,443.1   548.9   2,992.0   18.3
N=41   Clade B: U106>Z8 All  GB Coal.=   72.9   17.3   2,186.9   519.4   GB=   74.7   17.5   2,241.6   525.8   2,767.4   17.7
N=9   Clade B: U106>Z343 All  GB Coal.=   65.6   16.4   1,967.3   492.6   GB=   73.8   17.4   2,213.3   522.5   2,735.7   16.0
N=63   Clade B: U106>U198 All  GB Coal.=   69.4   16.9   2,083.4   506.9   GB=   70.6   17.0   2,117.0   511.0   2,628.0   16.9
N=8   Clade B: U106>Z1 All  GB Coal.=   51.8   14.6   1,555.2   438.0   GB=   59.2   15.6   1,777.4   468.2   2,245.6   12.6
N=4   Clade B: U106>Z12 All  GB Coal.=   41.4   13.0   1,241.1   391.3   GB=   55.2   15.1   1,654.8   451.8   2,106.6   10.1
« Last Edit: August 07, 2012, 09:58:03 PM by Mark Jost » Logged

148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
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« Reply #45 on: August 07, 2012, 04:13:42 PM »

Count   Coalescence Age   Generations   SD-Gen   YBP   + - YBP   Founder's Age   Generations   SD-Gen   YBP   + - YBP   Max   VAR
....

Thanks, Mark for doing this work. I'm not sure everyone realizes you do this as a courtesy for all of our benefit and your results doesn't necessarily reflect your own haplogroup.

I think this is in your posting on the U106 group but I couldn't find it. What are the interclade ages and 1 sigma ranges for

1. Z381 and Z18 (which puts a floor on U106's age and a ceiling on Z156's)

2. Z156 and Z301 (which puts a slightly lower ceiling on Z156's age)

3. L1 and Z305xL1 (which puts a floor on Z156's age)
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« Reply #46 on: August 07, 2012, 07:20:24 PM »

Count   Coalescence Age   Generations   SD-Gen   YBP   + - YBP   Founder's Age   Generations   SD-Gen   YBP   + - YBP   Max   VAR
....

Quote

I think this is in your posting on the U106 group but I couldn't find it. What are the interclade ages and 1 sigma ranges for


Ok, here is what I pulled from my posted chart on U106. I added SDGenerations the calculations produced which is SD (1 Sigma =68.27%) which I added to the excel Dash Board view.

Note: I am suspect of an Interclade calculation if one of the two clades is not under 7-10% variance and it has a small n.

Quote

1. Z381 and Z18 (which puts a floor on U106's age and a ceiling on Z156's)


111(100) Markers Sheet Mutation Rate: 0.24323
Interclade GAB: U106* for Z18 All & Z381 All
N=44 Clade A: Z18
N=217 Clade B: Z381
YrsPerGen  TRUE-TMRCA  Founder  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP   +- YBP
30 98.3  7.0  2,949.9  210.4

Quote
2. Z156 and Z301 (which puts a slightly lower ceiling on Z156's age)

Interclade GAB: U106* for Z301 & Z156
N=192 Clade A: Z301
N=31 Clade B: Z156
YrsPerGen  TRUE-TMRCA  Founder  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP   +- YBP
30  107.1  7.3  3,211.9  219.5

Quote
3. L1 and Z305xL1 (which puts a floor on Z156's age)


Interclade GAB: U106* for Z305+ L1+ only & Z305+ xL1
N=10 Clade A: Z305+ L1+ only
N=18 Clade B: Z305+ xL1
YrsPerGen TRUE-TMRCA  Founder  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP   +- YBP
30  76.6   6.2   2,299.3   185.7

U106 File link:
http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/4I8hUH3B1cG7q7E_vJHLZ9fXAQ4-MAmFiKmcTFP5cJsj_OxnBmOTLQrmCoBgy-UoySN04wcqHlXkVr4v3HnktqTXjlyibg/U106withSubclades-IntracladeFounder08022012.pdf

I dont know if these Interclades sound reasonable or not.

MJost
« Last Edit: August 07, 2012, 09:57:35 PM by Mark Jost » Logged

148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
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« Reply #47 on: August 07, 2012, 08:38:07 PM »

Count   Coalescence Age   Generations   SD-Gen   YBP   + - YBP   Founder's Age   Generations   SD-Gen   YBP   + - YBP   Max   VAR
....

Quote

I think this is in your posting on the U106 group but I couldn't find it. What are the interclade ages and 1 sigma ranges for


Ok, here is what I pulled from my posted chart on U106. I added SDGenerations the calculations produced which is SD (1 Sigma =68.27%) which I added to the excel Dash Board view.

Note: I am suspect of an Interclade calculation if one of the two clades is not under 7-10% variance and it has a small n.

Quote

1. Z381 and Z18 (which puts a floor on U106's age and a ceiling on Z156's)


111(100) Markers Sheet Mutation Rate: 0.24323
Interclade GAB: U106* for Z18 All & Z381 All
N=44 Clade A: Z18
N=217 Clade B: Z381
YrsPerGen  TRUE-TMRCA  Founder  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP   +- YBP
30 98.3  7.0  2,949.9  210.4

Quote
2. Z156 and Z301 (which puts a slightly lower ceiling on Z156's age)

Interclade GAB: U106* for Z301 & Z156
N=192 Clade A: Z301
N=31 Clade B: Z156
YrsPerGen  TRUE-TMRCA  Founder  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP   +- YBP
30  107.1  7.3  3,211.9  219.5

Quote
3. L1 and Z305xL1 (which puts a floor on Z156's age)


Interclade GAB: U106* for Z301+ L1+ only & Z305+ xL1
N=10 Clade A: Z301+ L1+ only
N=18 Clade B: Z305+ xL1
YrsPerGen TRUE-TMRCA  Founder  Generations  StdDevInGen  YBP   +- YBP
30  76.6   6.2   2,299.3   185.7

U106 File link:
http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/4I8hUH3B1cG7q7E_vJHLZ9fXAQ4-MAmFiKmcTFP5cJsj_OxnBmOTLQrmCoBgy-UoySN04wcqHlXkVr4v3HnktqTXjlyibg/U106withSubclades-IntracladeFounder08022012.pdf

I dont know if these Interclades sound reasonable or not.

MJost

Thanks, Mark. No one knows what is reasonable. We are just trying to figure that out.

I see the interclade for Z18 & Z381 (where L48 sits) is 2.9K ybp while I see Z381 descendants Z156 & Z301's (where L48 sits) is 3.2K ybp. Of course, this can not be, but I see where within a sigma and a half so I suppose all is still consistent in the calculations.

Still this is saying much of U106 just isn't that old, if  you assume the germ-line mutation rates are okay.

Is that a typo where you have "Z301+ L1+" since L1 is under Z305 and not Z301?  I assume it is.  The interclade of L1 and Z305xL1 is a key for the Z156 folks as Z156 has to be older than that L1&Z305xL1 interclade MRCA.  I see that's only 2.3K ybp.

Again, this is not an exact science but it seems reasonable to view the TMRCA for Z156 is about 2-3K ybp.  That's the first millennium BC. If we assume that is correct, what does that mean about Z156?  I guess we should look at where we find it.  Well, we know there is some in Ireland.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2012, 08:41:02 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #48 on: August 07, 2012, 09:37:03 PM »

We have SNP based Z14 interclade calcs (using Ken's spreadsheet) that predate these !!
« Last Edit: August 07, 2012, 09:39:15 PM by Jdean » Logged

Y-DNA R-DF49*
MtDNA J1c2e
Kit No. 117897
Ysearch 3BMC9

Mark Jost
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« Reply #49 on: August 07, 2012, 09:55:43 PM »

Dang that was a typo I meant to correct on the post and forgot. I will edit both posts here.

Remember that KenN's Gen111T was set to use MarkoH's  summed mutation rates.

Each clade's Age estimate is calculated two ways, one: the Coalescence Age is the variance as an entire population (Variance of Whole Population (n)) divided by the sum of the mutation rates. And two: Founders Age is variance as a sample of the popluation (n-1).

111 markers is now the gold standard though. We cannot go back to 67 because the results are affected stepping downwards. Before 111 we only knew one side of the fence and now the 67 is not greener.

MJost
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148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
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