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Author Topic: A Change in Research Paradigm RE R1b?  (Read 2895 times)
rms2
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« on: March 02, 2012, 08:15:49 PM »

Look at this from Dienekes' blog:

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Our results indicate that approximately 58% of Serbian Y-chromosomes (I1-M253, I2a-P37.2, R1a1a-M198) belong to lineages believed to be pre-Neolithic. On the other hand, the signature of putative Near Eastern Neolithic lineages, including E1b1b1a1-M78, G2a-P15, J1-M267 and J2-M172 and R1b1a2-M269 accounts for 39% of the Y-chromosome.

I didn't post this because I am fascinated by Serbian y chromosomes (although I have nothing against them). I posted it because of the inclusion of R1b1a2-M269 in the list of "putative Near Eastern Neolithic lineages".

That strikes me as a major paradigm shift. I know that shift has been coming, and was foreshadowed in other papers, but it struck me to see it set out fair and square as a new working assumption.

How different this is from just a couple of years ago, when R1b1a2-M269 was always assumed to represent the descendants of Paleolithic hunter-gatherers.
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2012, 09:15:15 AM »

This isn’t at all true. The theory of the neolithization of Europe from Anatolia (and why to call it Middle East?) is due to Luigi Luca Cavalli Sforza (whom I call “Cavallo Sforzesco”) more than twenty years ago and many others. Also Colin Renfrew hypothesized that both R1b and Indo-European languages came from there (this more than twenty years ago too). Brian Sykes said that the Middle Easterners were only a 20% of the European genetic pool, and the idea that European R1b has come from Middle East has been supported on these forums by Vincent Vizachero and many others (practically pretty all). But see the meagre figure he has just done by putting LoPiccolo amongst the R-L584+, presupposing also that he was a Sicilian of Jewish (Sephardic) descent. The same LoPiccolo, who did his STRs at FTDNA for my input, has just written to me: “Looks like you were on the mark all along[,] Gioiello, but I do appreciate anyone who offered assistance”.
Practically the theory of an Italian Refugium, certainly of many Y and mt haplogroups, is mine, and I too didn’t believe to a Paleolithic Refugium of the Franco-Cantabrian Refugium of R1b, even though I haven’t ever excluded it and I have said also that if someone demonstrates that the Refugium was in the British Isles I wouldn’t have been surprised.
What about this paper? I have written something also on this forum about it. First the news should be that it recognizes some haplogroups as Mesolithic or Paleolithic: this is the news, and not that it continues to support the theory that R1b came from Middle East. But which proofs it has of this? None.
The R1b-s present in the Serbian people are either of recent European origin (R-U106, 1 R-152 etc. if I remember well not having the paper at hands) or are the well known called by me “Balkan cluster”, which first spoke Argiedude about, calling it “Albanian cluster”, and about it Argiedude and me have written tons of letters. My hypothesis was (and is ) that also the “Balkan cluster” came from Italy, and I put on ySearch from SMGF the haplotype of the Ligurian Risso, and I am waiting that someone tests it for the due SNPs. The “Balkan cluster” is proper of the Balkans, has many links with European clusters and nothing to do with the Middle Eastern R1b. But also the Balkans, of the knot-haplogroup R-L51+, get only a 0,3% against the Central-North Italian 4%, practically 0% in Anatolia and Middle East, no trace of R-L150- etc.
As I have said also recently to Vizachero on Dna-forums, till I have had  the possibility to write on it, Eastern R1b1*, which are the ancestors of the subclades, have YCAII=21-23, and not the 18-23 which generated all the subclades, then R1b1a2 and subclades weren’t born there but in Europe (I think in Italy, but Spain, France, the Isles are the same for me).
« Last Edit: March 03, 2012, 10:07:30 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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rms2
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« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2012, 07:43:07 PM »

I didn't say the idea that R1b was of Near Eastern Neolithic provenance in Europe has been proven true. I was simply struck by the fact that it appears to be the current paradigm, which certainly represents a change, since it is absolutely true that up until quite recently R1b was routinely regarded as the mark of Paleolithic hunter-gatherers.

I don't want to argue about the Italian Refugium. I respect and like you very much, Gioiello, but I haven't really seen anything convincing on that front.
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« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2012, 10:00:06 PM »

I didn't say the idea that R1b was of Near Eastern Neolithic provenance in Europe has been proven true. I was simply struck by the fact that it appears to be the current paradigm, which certainly represents a change, since it is absolutely true that up until quite recently R1b was routinely regarded as the mark of Paleolithic hunter-gatherers.

I don't want to argue about the Italian Refugium. I respect and like you very much, Gioiello, but I haven't really seen anything convincing on that front.

It would certainly be a boost if Cunliffe would address the more recent R1b developments in his new book.  I hope it's not a rehash of Britain being mostly populated pre-Bronze Age.
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2012, 12:12:35 AM »

...Eastern R1b1*, which are the ancestors of the subclades, have YCAII=21-23, and not the 18-23 which generated all the subclades, then R1b1a2...
Why do you repeatedly make such statements?

Modern R1b1* haplotypes are not ancestral to all of R1b1a2 by any sense of the imagination. Modern R1b1* haplotypes are simply remnants of a paragroup of lineages that survived until modern times.

How do you know what the "ancestral" haplotype is?
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2012, 02:22:00 AM »

Mike, why do you repeatedly make such statements?

I have explained many times this to you and it seemed to me that the last time was resolutive, seen that you didn’t reply. To you and to Rich Stevens I would say that mine are hypotheses and I am waiting for the aDNA which resolves this question, but it is a little bit strange that that R1b1* haplotype ancestor certainly of the subclades has survived only in Europe and none in Middle East. For this and for others I think that the origin was in Europe.

I make prevision. About LoPiccolo I have won on all the line and ridiculed Vizachero&company.
I am waiting the test about Javakhishvili, who has YCAII=21-23 and could be an R-M335 for his values. This would put in crisis my theory, because the European R-M335 have all YCAII=18-23. For this I presume that it is an Eastern R1b1*. See here
Is Javakhishvili R-M335?
« Last Edit: March 04, 2012, 02:23:39 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2012, 02:46:30 AM »

European Journal of Human Genetics 20, 313-320 (March 2012) | doi:10.1038/ejhg.2011.192
Neolithic patrilineal signals indicate that the Armenian plateau was repopulated by agriculturalists
Kristian J Herrera, Robert K Lowery, Laura Hadden, Silvia Calderon,Carolina Chiou, Levon Yepiskoposyan, Maria Regueiro, Peter A Underhill and Rene J Herrera
Abstract
Armenia, situated between the Black and Caspian Seas, lies at the junction of Turkey, Iran, Georgia, Azerbaijan and former Mesopotamia. This geographic position made it a potential contact zone between Eastern and Western civilizations. In this investigation, we assess Y-chromosomal diversity in four geographically distinct populations that represent the extent of historical Armenia. We find a striking prominence of haplogroups previously implicated with the Agricultural Revolution in the Near East, including the J2a-M410-, R1b1b1*-L23-, G2a-P15- and J1-M267-derived lineages. Given that the Last Glacial Maximum event in the Armenian plateau occured a few millennia before the Neolithic era, we envision a scenario in which its repopulation was achieved mainly by the arrival of farmers from the Fertile Crescent temporally coincident with the initial inception of farming in Greece. However, we detect very restricted genetic affinities with Europe that suggest any later cultural diffusions from Armenia to Europe were not associated with substantial amounts of paternal gene flow, despite the presence of closely related Indo-European languages in both Armenia and Southeast Europe.
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2012, 02:54:34 AM »

I'll say much more later, but it isn't said that the Armenian R-L23 (and all the Middle Eastern L23 are Armenian) has come from Middle East. Also this is a presumption. There are no R-L23 "Balkan cluster", the R-M269-s are only a few and belong to a unique haplotype (then come from elsewhere). The R-L23 could have come from Europe with the Indo-European Armenians who spoke an IE language and lived in the Balkans near Greeks.
The high variability of Armenian R-L23 is due only to the fact that they descend from the first R-L23, which in Europe (of course I think in Italy) generated all the subclades.

And this is all.
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2012, 07:08:06 AM »

Look at this from Dienekes' blog:

Quote
Our results indicate that approximately 58% of Serbian Y-chromosomes (I1-M253, I2a-P37.2, R1a1a-M198) belong to lineages believed to be pre-Neolithic. On the other hand, the signature of putative Near Eastern Neolithic lineages, including E1b1b1a1-M78, G2a-P15, J1-M267 and J2-M172 and R1b1a2-M269 accounts for 39% of the Y-chromosome.

I didn't post this because I am fascinated by Serbian y chromosomes (although I have nothing against them). I posted it because of the inclusion of R1b1a2-M269 in the list of "putative Near Eastern Neolithic lineages".

That strikes me as a major paradigm shift. I know that shift has been coming, and was foreshadowed in other papers, but it struck me to see it set out fair and square as a new working assumption.

How different this is from just a couple of years ago, when R1b1a2-M269 was always assumed to represent the descendants of Paleolithic hunter-gatherers.

I thought the Paleolithic hunter-gatherer hypothesis was dead and buried?
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« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2012, 12:08:50 PM »

Look at this from Dienekes' blog:

Quote
Our results indicate that approximately 58% of Serbian Y-chromosomes (I1-M253, I2a-P37.2, R1a1a-M198) belong to lineages believed to be pre-Neolithic. On the other hand, the signature of putative Near Eastern Neolithic lineages, including E1b1b1a1-M78, G2a-P15, J1-M267 and J2-M172 and R1b1a2-M269 accounts for 39% of the Y-chromosome.

I didn't post this because I am fascinated by Serbian y chromosomes (although I have nothing against them). I posted it because of the inclusion of R1b1a2-M269 in the list of "putative Near Eastern Neolithic lineages".

That strikes me as a major paradigm shift. I know that shift has been coming, and was foreshadowed in other papers, but it struck me to see it set out fair and square as a new working assumption.

How different this is from just a couple of years ago, when R1b1a2-M269 was always assumed to represent the descendants of Paleolithic hunter-gatherers.

Am I reading this abstract correctly when I notice R1a1a is included in pre-Neolithic lineages?
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« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2012, 12:52:02 PM »

Yes. Apparently in Serbia R1a1 is regarded as pre-Neolithic.

Honestly, I had always thought it represented the incursion of Slavs in the 7th century AD, but, hey, what do I know?
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« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2012, 12:54:35 PM »


I thought the Paleolithic hunter-gatherer hypothesis was dead and buried?

Among hobbyists like us on the various dna fora, pretty much, but it is still current in a lot of publications and in the minds of many.
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2012, 01:15:47 PM »

Yes. Apparently in Serbia R1a1 is regarded as pre-Neolithic.

Honestly, I had always thought it represented the incursion of Slavs in the 7th century AD, but, hey, what do I know?
Rich, now I am not able to read Dna-forums, but this morning  I have read an interesting posting of Jafety (i.e. Fehér) who announced a paper (peer review) in favour of the origin in Europe of R1a. Perhaps I was the first to hypothesize this many years ago (always on the Italian Refugiun near the Alps where I hypothesized the Younger Dryas refugium), after having read the first paper of Irene Pichler on the Tyroleans, where there were some R1a-s with DYS392=13. So far the only R-M420-s found are in Europe and Asia lacks completely this ancestor haplogroup from which all the others derive.
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« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2012, 01:24:01 PM »

Thanks, Gioiello. I wasn't aware of that. I don't keep up with R1a much. I quit posting over at the Eupedia y-dna forum mainly because of a cadre of R1a worshipers (most of whom are not R1a themselves, curiously). I wasn't banned there, and I never stirred up trouble; I just got tired of the constant "true Aryan" refrain.

Of course, I have no use for dna-forums and haven't visited there in probably three years or so.
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« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2012, 01:28:08 PM »

Yes. Apparently in Serbia R1a1 is regarded as pre-Neolithic.

Honestly, I had always thought it represented the incursion of Slavs in the 7th century AD, but, hey, what do I know?

The oldest R1a1 found thus far has been the Corded Ware samples from Germany. They date to 2600 BC, which is certainly pre-Slavic migrations.
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2012, 01:33:39 PM »

Of course, I have no use for dna-forums and haven't visited there in probably three years or so.
What a pity, because there, amongst many persons that to say I contemn it is to say a little, there are of course many clever persons who write interesting things and we shouldn’t ignore them.
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« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2012, 01:35:34 PM »

Yes. Apparently in Serbia R1a1 is regarded as pre-Neolithic.

Honestly, I had always thought it represented the incursion of Slavs in the 7th century AD, but, hey, what do I know?

The oldest R1a1 found thus far has been the Corded Ware samples from Germany. They date to 2600 BC, which is certainly pre-Slavic migrations.
But probably Germans lived much Northward and in Central Europe lived just Slavs.
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« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2012, 04:00:54 PM »

Yes. Apparently in Serbia R1a1 is regarded as pre-Neolithic.

Honestly, I had always thought it represented the incursion of Slavs in the 7th century AD, but, hey, what do I know?

The oldest R1a1 found thus far has been the Corded Ware samples from Germany. They date to 2600 BC, which is certainly pre-Slavic migrations.
But probably Germans lived much Northward and in Central Europe lived just Slavs.

And Serbia is some distance from Eulau in eastern Germany.

Serbia became Slavic speaking somehow, and we do know the Slavs moved into the Balkans in the 7th century AD. Anything is possible, but it is hard to imagine that Serbia was already full of "Paleolithic" R1a before the Slavs got there.

Maybe, but that seems a stretch.
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« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2012, 11:42:08 PM »

And Serbia is some distance from Eulau in eastern Germany.
Serbia became Slavic speaking somehow, and we do know the Slavs moved into the Balkans in the 7th century AD. Anything is possible, but it is hard to imagine that Serbia was already full of "Paleolithic" R1a before the Slavs got there.
Maybe, but that seems a stretch.
Of course Slavs (“Jug” does mean “South”) expanded in the Balkans after the fall of the Western Roman Empire, deleting there the Latin language spoken (no sympathy for them then), coming from East, but as you can see to-day “Jugoslavs” are mostly the descendants of the ancient Balkan peoples, and of course they will have brought with them some recent R1a, but in the Balkans like in all Europe there was also the most ancient R-M420 and subclades. Slav languages are very widely expanded to-day, but they have probably a little of the original Slav DNA. All Russians who speak Russian language are above all peoples assimilated. It is likely that the original Slav language was spoken in Central Europe and also the other satem languages were nearby. Of course I think that the fatherland of Indo-Europeans was between the Balkans and Central Europe, otherwise I wouldn’t have supported the Italian Refugium during the Younger Dryas.
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« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2012, 07:54:36 PM »

...Eastern R1b1*, which are the ancestors of the subclades, have YCAII=21-23, and not the 18-23 which generated all the subclades, then R1b1a2...
Why do you repeatedly make such statements?

Modern R1b1* haplotypes are not ancestral to all of R1b1a2 by any sense of the imagination. Modern R1b1* haplotypes are simply remnants of a paragroup of lineages that survived until modern times.

How do you know what the "ancestral" haplotype is?

Mike, why do you repeatedly make such statements?

I have explained many times this to you and it seemed to me that the last time was resolutive, seen that you didn’t reply. To you and to Rich Stevens I would say that mine are hypotheses and I am waiting for the aDNA which resolves this question, but it is a little bit strange that that R1b1* haplotype ancestor certainly of the subclades has survived only in Europe and none in Middle East. For this and for others I think that the origin was in Europe.

I make prevision. About LoPiccolo I have won on all the line and ridiculed Vizachero&company.
I am waiting the test about Javakhishvili, who has YCAII=21-23 and could be an R-M335 for his values. This would put in crisis my theory, because the European R-M335 have all YCAII=18-23. For this I presume that it is an Eastern R1b1*. See here
Is Javakhishvili R-M335?
I'm sure we are losing something in the language differences.

If all you are saying is it is your theory that "Eastern R1b1*, which are the ancestors of the subclades, have YCAII=21-23, and not the 18-23 which generated all the subclades, then R1b1a2..." then I comment that you could be right. It is definitely possible.

However, you typically use words to the effect that you have "demonstrated" this or that, when by no means have you have demonstrated that 18-23 or 21-23 are the ancestral values for the R1b1a2 (R-M269) Most Recent Common Ancestor. My guess is that person was 19-23 since it is so common across R-M269 lineages extant today. I have not demonstrated anything though, just made a guess.

Just because an R1b1* lineage or lineages are 21-23 or 18-23 at YCAII, doesn't demonstrate those are the ancestral value for the R1b1 Most Recent Common Ancestor.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2012, 07:56:21 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #20 on: March 06, 2012, 06:34:26 PM »

New R1a1a calculation part 1-

There might be some truth to R1a1a being pre-Neolithic or at least Neolithic in Europe.

I ran 22 R1a1a-L664's with 75 R1a1a-Z283's and Z93's (as a stand in for Z645) through Ken's Generations7 spreadsheet.  Here are the interclade and intraclade results.  The interclade age would represent the time of M417 before the lines to L645 and L664.  The L664's are mostly NW European (British Isles, Germany, Scandinavia).  The Z283 are Russian and Ukraine.  Z93 is Russian, Ukraine, Central Asia, India, and Caucasian.

Summary Table                 Midpt       2S max      2S min
M417 Interclade MRCA Age   9.2   10.7   7.6
Z645 (Z283/Z93) Clade MRCA   5.2   6.0   4.2
Clade Coalescence Age   4.3   5.3   3.5
L664 Clade MRCA Age   4.7   5.8   3.7
Clade Coalescence Age   3.6   4.7   2.6

The actual result midpoint was 7170 BC for M417 which close to the early SE European Neolithic timeframe.  However, it doesn't necessarily mean M417 was involved in that movement.
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« Reply #21 on: March 06, 2012, 06:49:09 PM »

Part 2

I didn't mention earlier, but I included all subclades and types under each sampled SNP. 

The next calculation was to find the Z645-Z851 interclade.  I used 25 Z93's with 54 Z283's.  Locations are noted above. 

Summary Table               Midpt      2S max       2S min
Z645 Interclade MRCA Age   4.5   5.4   3.7
Z283 Clade MRCA Age   4.0   4.7   3.1
Clade Coalescence Age   3.3   4.1   2.5
Z293 Clade MRCA Age   4.5   5.5   3.7
Clade Coalescence Age   3.7   4.6   2.9

The Z645 interclade midpt age was 2518 BC.  It is interesting that this is after the Centum languages spread to central Europe under the Gimbutas/Anthony models.  However, in the case of Z93 and its' central Asian distribution, the result works well for the antecdent cultures of the Indo-Iranians such as Poltavka, Sintashta, and Andronovo.   Poltavka begins from an eastern branch of the Yamnaya horizon in 2700.
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« Reply #22 on: March 06, 2012, 09:54:42 PM »

New R1a1a calculation part 1-

There might be some truth to R1a1a being pre-Neolithic or at least Neolithic in Europe.

I ran 22 R1a1a-L664's with 75 R1a1a-Z283's and Z93's (as a stand in for Z645) through Ken's Generations7 spreadsheet.  Here are the interclade and intraclade results.  The interclade age would represent the time of M417 before the lines to L645 and L664.  The L664's are mostly NW European (British Isles, Germany, Scandinavia).  The Z283 are Russian and Ukraine.  Z93 is Russian, Ukraine, Central Asia, India, and Caucasian.

Summary Table                 Midpt       2S max      2S min
M417 Interclade MRCA Age   9.2   10.7   7.6
Z645 (Z283/Z93) Clade MRCA   5.2   6.0   4.2
Clade Coalescence Age   4.3   5.3   3.5
L664 Clade MRCA Age   4.7   5.8   3.7
Clade Coalescence Age   3.6   4.7   2.6

The actual result midpoint was 7170 BC for M417 which close to the early SE European Neolithic timeframe.  However, it doesn't necessarily mean M417 was involved in that movement.

Thank you for posting these numbers, Mike. It underscores recent scholarship that suggests R1a1's origins and affinities with early IE are still debatable.
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« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2012, 12:41:35 AM »

I think by seeing where R1a1a might have been at a given time, will help us better understand what was happening with R1b.  Based on the R1a1a project site, the pre-M417 R1a looks like a post-younger dryas or neolithic expansion from SW Asia.  However, they went on to become more prolific once in Europe, unlike known neolithic groups E, F, and G.  There is also the east-west split with R1b.  All of this suggests  R1a arrived at a different time and place than the others.  I think a mesolithic movement out of central Asia from its' R1 root up to the Urals, then west to Europe might be an option that explains the differences.   The L664 branch has a NW/Baltic-Scandinavian affinity which might put the European R1a homeland near there among early forest cultures.  I noticed there is now a Russian in the project who is M417-.

The branch of R1a1a that seems to be associated with IE is Z645+, mainly in the form of Z283 and Z93.  However, I don't think they were predominant among the early PIE steppe people.  The Sredny Stog and Yamnaya physical types are different than the Corded R1a people.   They were more Cro-magnon like which suggest upper paleolithic origins unlike the more gracile Cordeds.

The Z283 branches are mostly confined to the regions east of Germany and north of the Balkans.  In other words, the old Corded-Ware territories that later gave rise to the Balts and Slavs.  The lesser amounts of R1a outside of this area can be explained by historical movements.  The regions to the south and west were probably full of R1b's and other former neolithic groups by 2500 (my Z645 interclade midpoint) and most likely by 2000 (Z283+ intraclade midpoint).   This, imo, is when the R1a-R1b east west split forms. R1b probably brought centum languages to the west, but the how, why, and what the relationship with R1a's can be debated.
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« Reply #24 on: March 07, 2012, 02:11:28 AM »

I don't know if you have read what I posted a few days ago here and on "Dienekes' Anthropology blog". To say what? That R1a1a (and much more the European R1a-M420) are more ancient than it is usually thought:

An interesting haplotype of R1a1a (M17) has been found in the paper of Gunjan Sharma et al., Genetic Affinities of the Central Indian Tribal Population, PLoS one,  February 2012:

DYS19=18
DYS385=14-17
DYS389=15-30
DYS390=28
DYS391=12
DYS392=14
DYS393=13
DYS437=17
DYS439=13
DYS448=22
DYS456=17
DYS458=17

At first sight it could seem we have found the R-M420 not found so far in India with its DYS492=14, which presupposes a 13, whereas all the other R1a1a haplotypes have 11 or 10 and 12 from 11, but this haplotype has been tested for M17, then it isn’t an R-M420. Also the extremely large variance of the other markers makes us think that this value 14 derives from a modal 11 (or what was the modal at the origin of this subclade). Then again all the discourses about “modal” and “variance”, as I have supported many times, are worth nothing.
But I think it would be something to say about the TMRCA of 10.97+/-1.86 kya (25 y for generation) even though calculated by the Zhivotovsky rate. It is clear that these R1a1a-s belong to different clades and the massive presence of the clade most usually found falsifies the calculation. It is clear that this haplotype is an outlier, but for this more interesting, because testifies all the mutation gone mostly for the tangent and not around the modal. If we calculate the intraclade between two of these haplotypes, for instance with this closer to the modal: 15, 11-14, 14-32, 24,10, 11, 12,14,10, 20, 15,16 we have 32 mutations. Also using the usual mutation rate of 0,0022, we have:
(454x32)/28=518
518x25=12,950
and I have used a generation of 25 years and not 32 as I use usually, and I haven’t considered  other mutations around the modal.

Conclusions? The ancientness of the haplogroups is much much more than it is usually thought.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2012, 02:14:05 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

Maliclavelli


YDNA: R-S12460


MtDNA: K1a1b1e

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