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Author Topic: Should we have a push for Big Four SNP testing among L21* people?  (Read 1285 times)
Mike Walsh
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« on: February 18, 2012, 11:13:59 AM »

I read that an email distribution is going out to the French ancestry in the L21 project encouraging testing for DF23.  I think there are four big, old SNPs immediately downstream of L21 that all L21*/undifferentiated should consider.

DF23, L513, DF21, Z253 with Z255 possibly being a fifth.

Each of these four have people with large (greater than 20 @67 STRs) Genetic Distances (GDs) to their respective individual modals.

Below is a high level summary of these SNP's.

DF23+ tested&defacto=754 (includes M222)
DF23* tested=14; high GD:23 to DF23* Modal
DF23- tested=104, Firm Varieties:35 (39.3%) and Unassigned:35

L513+ tested&defacto=158 (includes L193, P66, L705.2)
L513* tested=64; high GD:24 to L513* Modal
L513- tested=77, Firm Varieties:28 (31.5%) and Unassigned:29

DF21+ tested&defacto=114 (includes P314.2, Z246, L720, S190
DF21* tested=52; high GD:21 to DF21* Modal
DF21- tested=149, Firm Varieties:42 (47.2%) and Unassigned:68

Z253+ tested&defacto=149 (includes L226, L554, L895)
Z253* tested=38; high GD:23 to Z253* Modal
Z253- tested=57, Firm Varieties:29 (32.6%) and Unassigned:24

The Firm Varieties % numbers in parenthesis represent the % of varieties/subclades in L21 that have been tested negative. This gives us some idea of the penetration of testing for these SNPs. A little more problematic is the some 800 plus L21* people that are unassignable to a variety. They have no one's shoulder to look over to see who has already tested with what results.

Geographically, each of these SNP groups are relatively widely dispersed as well. Z253 may be the winner here with folks from places like Spain and Switzerland as well as the Isles.

L513 is found in France, Germany and Scandinavia as well as the Isles.

DF21 is found Benelux and Scandinavia as well as the Isles.

DF23 is found in Germany, Scandinavia (through M222) as well as France and the Isles.
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Mike23
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2012, 03:07:22 PM »

I read that an email distribution is going out to the French ancestry in the L21 project encouraging testing for DF23.  I think there are four big, old SNPs immediately downstream of L21 that all L21*/undifferentiated should consider.

DF23, L513, DF21, Z253 with Z255 possibly being a fifth.
Hello Mike,

As far as I can see all likely DF23's from the France section of the L21 Project have been tested and found positive. The France section should be tested for other L21 subclades as it is possible that they may show origins in France and perhaps particular provinces.

Regards, Mike Hannan
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rms2
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2012, 06:00:12 PM »

Isn't L513 pretty much restricted to guys with that 11-13 combo at 406S1 and 617? If so, that should be easy to spot. If it's never been found in anyone outside that group, it would be kind of a waste for guys without those markers to test for it, wouldn't it?

Has anyone with the modal 10-12 ever been found to be L513+?
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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2012, 01:42:40 AM »

Isn't L513 pretty much restricted to guys with that 11-13 combo at 406S1 and 617? If so, that should be easy to spot. If it's never been found in anyone outside that group, it would be kind of a waste for guys without those markers to test for it, wouldn't it?

Has anyone with the modal 10-12 ever been found to be L513+?
We have found 406s1=10 L513+.

We have not found 617=12 L513+, but then there is very little testing of L513 for 617=12 guys for exactly the reason you've specified.  The perception is that if you are not 11-13 you can't be L513+.

My point is - you can't find what you don't look for.

We have several 617=14 L513+ and 617=15 L513+. If L513 was around long enough for 617=13 guys to mutate to 14 and even a second step to 15, certainly there must be some that mutated back to 12 as well, just one step.  L513 is old enough an early branch of 617=12 may be out there as well. If so, they could definitely be on the continent.

This one of the problems we have with exploratory SNP testing.  It's very important what kind of start an SNP has in early testing. Sometimes an SNP gets pigeon-holed because of a narrow or unlucky start.

The same as I think every P312+ person should test for L21, U152, etc. till they find their terminal SNP or determine they are true P312*,  I think the same for L21+ people. DF23, DF21, L513 and Z253 are all real possibilities. They are probably 2500-3000 years old so there is plenty of time for many variations. I think Z255 should be considered as well.

This is why it is so important for an SNP to get onto the Y DNA official trees as soon as possible... so it can be included in deep clade package testing and we'll then have a chance at truly understanding its extent with surprise results.

Let's put the shoe on the other foot.

People don't necessarily know this, but almost all of DF23+ is 481>=24. We do have one DF23*=23, which is still one greater than the L21 modal, 22.  Perhaps no one should test for DF23 unless they are 481>=23, which will rule out the majority of people since 22 is the modal for L21?  I disagree with that. DF23 should not be pigeon-holed as the "high 481" STR subclade.

By the same token, I don't think L513 or DF21 should be pigeon-holed, they old enough to have about anything.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2012, 02:01:57 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2012, 01:47:00 AM »

... As far as I can see all likely DF23's from the France section of the L21 Project have been tested and found positive. The France section should be tested for other L21 subclades as it is possible that they may show origins in France and perhaps particular provinces.
I agree. We don't know what we'll find.
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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2012, 07:36:01 AM »

I sort of agree, Mike, but I hate to send out a bulk email asking everyone in the project to test for something when I am pretty sure they are not going to be positive for it. I would feel like I was misleading people who are trusting me to offer them some sort of guidance (not that I am an expert). If we were paying for it, that would be a different story.

I haven't kept track of it, but I know there have been a lot of L513- results. The reason I don't order it for myself is because I think the odds are pretty great that I am L513-. So, if I know about an apparent limitation or indicator on a particular SNP, I feel it is only right that I share that information. For example, I would never suggest to someone that he test for L226 unless he were reasonably close to the Irish Type III haplotype.

I had not noticed what you just mentioned about DF23 and 481, but that is another factor that ought to be mentioned in any suggestion to our members about what tests to order.
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2012, 09:12:46 AM »

Okay, I just submitted a bulk email to the entire R-L21 Plus Project for FTDNA's approval. Here is the text of it.

Quote
***THIS IS A BULK EMAIL TO ALL OF THE MEMBERS OF THE R-L21 PLUS PROJECT***

Dear Friends,

The following new or relatively new SNPs are downstream of L21 and might be worthy of your consideration:

Z253, DF21, Z255, L513, and DF23

I have listed them in what I imagine is the order of the likelihood of your getting a positive result, without addressing myself to a specific individual haplotype, but that is just my opinion. In other words, I would start with Z253, if you have not tested for it already.

Obviously, neither I nor FTDNA can guarantee you a positive result on any of these SNPs.

With L513, you are more likely to get a positive result if you have 406S1=11 and 617=13 in combination (you need 67 str  markers to check this).

With DF23, you are more likely to get a positive result if your value at 481 is greater than 22, with values of 24 and higher apparently increasing the likelihood. Again, you need 67 str markers to check this.

To order one or all of these SNPs for testing, just go to your "myFTDNA" pages and click on "Order Upgrade" in the upper right. Scroll down and click on "Order an Advanced Test" (under the heading "Advanced Tests"). On the next screen, click the drop-down menu on the "Test Type" box and choose "SNP". Then, in the "Marker" box, type the name of the SNP. Click "Find". That SNP should come up, showing a $29 price. Click "Add" and then the little orange "Next" button in the lower right. After that, just complete the fields to order the test.

Good luck!

Note: Check your Haplotree page before ordering any new SNP tests. Make sure you haven't been tested for that SNP already.



I feel pretty good that what I wrote is the straight skinny and not misleading anyone. They should make their orders with their eyes wide open.
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Maliclavelli
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2012, 11:06:47 AM »

Mikewww writes: “We have several 617=14 L513+ and 617=15 L513+. If L513 was around long enough for 617=13 guys to mutate to 14 and even a second step to 15, certainly there must be some that mutated back to 12 as well, just one step.  L513 is old enough an early branch of 617=12 may be out there as well. If so, they could definitely be on the continent”.

Are you aware as how many time is necessary for a marker like DYS617 (MR: 4.13x10/-4 (Ballantyne)) to mutate from 12 to 13 and to 13 to 14 and to 14 to 15? This of course is a mutation for the tangent, whereas the most part of them will have been around the modal. And aren’t you surprised that the other markers will be above all around the modal? This mutation rate does mean a mutation every 2500 meioses and that the 1 who had that mutation has a new mutation and that the 1…has a new mutation is more difficult than to get the same number three times in a row at the "lottery".
Don’t you mind that our hg. R is more ancient than it is usually thought?
« Last Edit: February 19, 2012, 12:31:29 PM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2012, 11:15:58 AM »

Real quick because I have run out of time this morning -

Out of curiosity I did some checking on L513 testing. I might have missed some, but I found 60 L513- results since last August 2. Of those, 47 had 10-12 at 406S1/617. Two others had haplotypes that were too short to check 406S1 and 617. The other 11 had some other combination at those two markers.

So, it seems to me L513 has gotten a pretty fair trial by guys with the 10-12 modal combo. Since apparently no one who is 10-12 has yet been found who is L513+, it seems that combination is pretty much the kiss of death for L513. I wouldn't recommend testing for it to any 10-12 guy, unless he doesn't mind risking $29 on the real low probability of a positive result.

I kind of feel a little bad including L513 and DF21 in that bulk email I just submitted. Both of them have gotten a lot of testing already. I saw that just this morning in going back through the project's "Received Lab Results" pages.

I hope the guys check their Haplotree pages before ordering!
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« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2012, 11:31:50 AM »

It is one possibility out of 15,625,000,000 (if we exclude of course multi step mutations), but we have all the values from at least 10 to 15 and we can exclude multi step mutations. Of course R-L513+ arose (or has survived) amongst a man with DYS617=13, then the values from 11 to 15 are perfectly around the modal, like the values from 10 to 14 are around the modal 12.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2012, 11:32:29 AM by Maliclavelli » Logged

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Mike Walsh
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« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2012, 12:05:19 PM »

Real quick because I have run out of time this morning -

Out of curiosity I did some checking on L513 testing. I might have missed some, but I found 60 L513- results since last August 2. Of those, 47 had 10-12 at 406S1/617. Two others had haplotypes that were too short to check 406S1 and 617. The other 11 had some other combination at those two markers.

So, it seems to me L513 has gotten a pretty fair trial by guys with the 10-12 modal combo. Since apparently no one who is 10-12 has yet been found who is L513+, it seems that combination is pretty much the kiss of death for L513. I wouldn't recommend testing for it to any 10-12 guy, unless he doesn't mind risking $29 on the real low probability of a positive result.

I kind of feel a little bad including L513 and DF21 in that bulk email I just submitted. Both of them have gotten a lot of testing already. I saw that just this morning in going back through the project's "Received Lab Results" pages.

I hope the guys check their Haplotree pages before ordering!

RMS, I have been keeping track of negatives in the most logical way I know, by cluster. We should be tracking our coverage of SNP exploratory testing by firm cluster and subclade. That's what the initial reply #1 on this thread was all about.

DF23- tested=104, Firm Varieties:35 (39.3%) and Unassigned:35

L513- tested=77, Firm Varieties:28 (31.5%) and Unassigned:29

DF21- tested=149, Firm Varieties:42 (47.2%) and Unassigned:68

Z253- tested=57, Firm Varieties:29 (32.6%) and Unassigned:24

As you can see, DF23 has actually had better coverage (penetration of clusters with negative hits) for exploratory testing than L513 and Z253 with its 39% coverage versus L513's and Z253's each with about 32%.  The overall DF23- count of 104 is also higher than both L513 and Z253.

Fairness is in the eye of the beholder so I have no complaints about fairness.

I just think we should not pigeonhole SNPs into perceived STR signatures without a representative, thorough exploration. This is what I have against SNP prediction tools, at least for newer SNPs.

We don't know what we don't know.....   except I can say all four above are old clades as represented by variance and GD's.

P.S. The data is a available at http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/RL21Project/files/Haplotype_Data_R-L21All.zip  The file I have has many more people in it than the L21Plus project and I've incorporated negative/positive test information from WTY since it doesn't appear in haplotrees sometimes.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2012, 12:23:34 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2012, 12:23:17 PM »

Real quick because I have run out of time this morning -

Out of curiosity I did some checking on L513 testing. I might have missed some, but I found 60 L513- results since last August 2. Of those, 47 had 10-12 at 406S1/617. Two others had haplotypes that were too short to check 406S1 and 617. The other 11 had some other combination at those two markers.

So, it seems to me L513 has gotten a pretty fair trial by guys with the 10-12 modal combo. Since apparently no one who is 10-12 has yet been found who is L513+, it seems that combination is pretty much the kiss of death for L513. I wouldn't recommend testing for it to any 10-12 guy, unless he doesn't mind risking $29 on the real low probability of a positive result.

I kind of feel a little bad including L513 and DF21 in that bulk email I just submitted. Both of them have gotten a lot of testing already. I saw that just this morning in going back through the project's "Received Lab Results" pages.

I hope the guys check their Haplotree pages before ordering!
RMS, I have been keeping track of negatives in the most logical way I know, by cluster.  We should be tracking our coverage of SNP exploratory testing by firm cluster and subclade. That's what the initial reply on this thread was all about.

DF23- tested=104, Firm Varieties:35 (39.3%) and Unassigned:35

L513- tested=77, Firm Varieties:28 (31.5%) and Unassigned:29

DF21- tested=149, Firm Varieties:42 (47.2%) and Unassigned:68

Z253- tested=57, Firm Varieties:29 (32.6%) and Unassigned:24

As you can see, DF23 has actually had better coverage (penetration of clusters with negative hits) for exploratory testing than L513 and Z253 with its 39% coverage versus L513's and Z253's each with about 32%.  The overall DF23- count of 104 is also higher than both L513 and Z253.

Fairness is in the eye of the beholder so I have no complaints about fairness.

I just think we should not pigeonhole SNPs into perceived STR signatures without a representative, thorough exploration. This is what I have against SNP prediction tools, at least for newer SNPs.

We don't know what we don't know.....   except I can say all four above are old clades as represented by variance and GD's.

P314.2 is a case in point.  It seemed to have a distinctive STR signature but it turned out that this STR cluster (the MacMartin supercluster) is only a cluster within p314.2 and I understand the continental p314.2 people would not have been predicted looking at STRs. 
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« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2012, 12:44:49 PM »

Mikewww writes: “We have several 617=14 L513+ and 617=15 L513+. If L513 was around long enough for 617=13 guys to mutate to 14 and even a second step to 15, certainly there must be some that mutated back to 12 as well, just one step.  L513 is old enough an early branch of 617=12 may be out there as well. If so, they could definitely be on the continent”.

Are you aware as how many time is necessary for a marker like DYS617 (MR: 4.13x10/-4 (Ballantyne)) to mutate from 12 to 13 and to 13 to 14 and to 14 to 15? This of course is a mutation for the tangent, whereas the most part of them will have been around the modal. And aren’t you surprised that the other markers will be above all around the modal? This mutation rate does mean a mutation every 2500 meioses and that the 1 who had that mutation has a new mutation and that the 1…has a new mutation is more difficult than to get the same number three times in a row at the "lottery".
Don’t you mind that our hg. R is more ancient than it is usually thought?

Yes, I think it is valid to consider that there are arguments over mutation rates that affect the aging of these haplogroups.

I have found three guys that form their own little cluster that I now label 513-1113-M:

f25794   Miller - Unknown - L513+
f179222   Muller - Germany - predicted L513
f144701   Stone - Unknown - L513+

Their off-modal signature is very strong so I think they are related.
439>=13 389ii-i=15 464=15,15,17,18 456=15 576=17 438-13 406s1=11 617=15 487=14

These are the three 617=15  (3+ L21 modal and 2+ 11-13 modal.)  Notice one is in Germany. Possibly this is an old branch of L513 and L513 is nearly as old as L21.   

If we can have L513+ people who are 2+ the 11-13 modal at 617, then we can have -1, 12 (or the L21 modal) and maybe even -2 (11.)

We do have two 11-13 Combo people who are 617=14 so we know there are the +1 people.

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« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2012, 03:25:24 PM »

Real quick because I have run out of time this morning -

Out of curiosity I did some checking on L513 testing. I might have missed some, but I found 60 L513- results since last August 2. Of those, 47 had 10-12 at 406S1/617. Two others had haplotypes that were too short to check 406S1 and 617. The other 11 had some other combination at those two markers.

So, it seems to me L513 has gotten a pretty fair trial by guys with the 10-12 modal combo. Since apparently no one who is 10-12 has yet been found who is L513+, it seems that combination is pretty much the kiss of death for L513. I wouldn't recommend testing for it to any 10-12 guy, unless he doesn't mind risking $29 on the real low probability of a positive result.

I kind of feel a little bad including L513 and DF21 in that bulk email I just submitted. Both of them have gotten a lot of testing already. I saw that just this morning in going back through the project's "Received Lab Results" pages.

I hope the guys check their Haplotree pages before ordering!

RMS, I have been keeping track of negatives in the most logical way I know, by cluster. We should be tracking our coverage of SNP exploratory testing by firm cluster and subclade. That's what the initial reply #1 on this thread was all about.

DF23- tested=104, Firm Varieties:35 (39.3%) and Unassigned:35

L513- tested=77, Firm Varieties:28 (31.5%) and Unassigned:29

DF21- tested=149, Firm Varieties:42 (47.2%) and Unassigned:68

Z253- tested=57, Firm Varieties:29 (32.6%) and Unassigned:24

As you can see, DF23 has actually had better coverage (penetration of clusters with negative hits) for exploratory testing than L513 and Z253 with its 39% coverage versus L513's and Z253's each with about 32%.  The overall DF23- count of 104 is also higher than both L513 and Z253.

Fairness is in the eye of the beholder so I have no complaints about fairness.

I just think we should not pigeonhole SNPs into perceived STR signatures without a representative, thorough exploration. This is what I have against SNP prediction tools, at least for newer SNPs.

We don't know what we don't know.....   except I can say all four above are old clades as represented by variance and GD's.

P.S. The data is a available at http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/RL21Project/files/Haplotype_Data_R-L21All.zip  The file I have has many more people in it than the L21Plus project and I've incorporated negative/positive test information from WTY since it doesn't appear in haplotrees sometimes.

But Mike, if none of the confirmed L513+ varieties includes any individuals who are 10-12 at 406S1 and 617, and plenty of those who do have those values have been tested and are L513-, how many more have to be tested before we decide that 10-12 is a pretty good indicator that one is L513-?

Is it necessary, for example, to test for L226 all the possible clusters you have detected before we decide that that one is pretty much limited to Irish Type III?

I realize I am not keeping systematic track of the negatives (or the positives), nor do I plan to, but one thing I noticed is that when I clicked on a member's "myFTDNA" pages, if he belonged to the 11-13 Combo Project he was probably L513+; if he didn't, he probably wasn't.

Honestly, do you think it likely, at this stage, that someone with 10-12 is going to get an L513+ result?

I know anything is possible, but I don't want to recommend that members spend their hard-earned money on a test that is not likely to get them a positive result.

And most of our members are interested in getting a positive result, not merely a result.

Anyway, I submitted that bulk email and included L513 in it. I didn't tell members not to test for it; I just told them a positive result is more likely for those with the 11-13 combo.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2012, 07:29:20 PM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2012, 03:31:41 PM »



P314.2 is a case in point.  It seemed to have a distinctive STR signature but it turned out that this STR cluster (the MacMartin supercluster) is only a cluster within p314.2 and I understand the continental p314.2 people would not have been predicted looking at STRs.  

How long was that the case?

L513 has been around awhile now and has not expanded beyond 11-13 into 10-12 territory. There hasn't been a single 10-12 L513+.

I could be wrong - and if I am, fine - but I don't think there ever will be many, just the odd singleton, perhaps (if that).

Have we detected a cluster that is solidly 492=12 and yet U106+?
« Last Edit: February 19, 2012, 03:33:58 PM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2012, 11:37:36 PM »



P314.2 is a case in point.  It seemed to have a distinctive STR signature but it turned out that this STR cluster (the MacMartin supercluster) is only a cluster within p314.2 and I understand the continental p314.2 people would not have been predicted looking at STRs.  

How long was that the case?

L513 has been around awhile now and has not expanded beyond 11-13 into 10-12 territory. There hasn't been a single 10-12 L513+.

I could be wrong - and if I am, fine - but I don't think there ever will be many, just the odd singleton, perhaps (if that).
No, we have not found a 10-12 L513+, but this is may only be because we are NOT looking for 10-12 L513+.  There are many, many clusters to L21 that are 406s1=10 617=12 and most have NOT been tested for L513. Who knows, there may be a significant cluster, even if not volume-wise, perhaps geographic-wise that is L513?

We may never know if we pigeon-hole SNP predictions into past STR-based positive hits.

There has never been any extensive, broad push for L513 testing like there has been for L226 and Bennet Greenspan's support.

You are doing the same for DF23 and Z253 and that's fine.  I think it is justifiable for DF23 and Z253, but the odds of any single L21+ person in France being DF23 or Z253 is probably less than 50%.  We don't really know, though.

I'm just saying that it is just as justifiable to push for broad testing of L513, DF21 and possibly Z255.

By the same STR "historical positives" standard you are applying to L513, it is not logical to push for broad DF23 testing since no L21 modal, 22,  for DYS481 DF23* people have been found yet.

However, we WILL find DF23* people that have 481 equal to L21's modal.  We will also find L513 people that have 617=12 or L21's modal. It's not a question of if, but when and how much.

You can predict that there will be more of one and less of another, but we don't have much of a scientific way to predict this. This is purely intuition and perception.

Please forgive me that I'm a bit sensitive on this. I am L513 so I admit that. At least in my logic, I think that (and have seen that) STR's are somewhat unreliable and SNP testing is very good in separating fact from fiction. Given that, I think every L21* person should test for the old/large subclades of L21 before achieving the asterisk status or feeling like they have searched logically exhausted their testing.

I feel the same for P312*. They all should test for U152, L21 AND Z196, possibly DF19 as well.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2012, 11:52:04 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2012, 12:16:01 AM »

... I realize I am not keeping systematic track of the negatives (or the positives), nor do I plan to, but one thing I noticed is that when I clicked on a member's "myFTDNA" pages, if he belonged to the 11-13 Combo Project he was probably L513+; if he didn't, he probably wasn't.
As the project admin I can tell you this this is by design, with a lot of hard recruiting and money spent on upgrading to 67 then SNP testing.

That can not be generalized to say that because a positive correlation is true a negative correlation must also be true. Just because you are 11-13 you are probably L513+ doesn't infer, by any means, that if you are not 11-13 then you must not be L513+.

As Alan noted, I was completely fooled by the 11-13 guys that are P314.2+ L513-, though. The positive correlation is not even certain.

Quote from: rms2
Honestly, do you think it likely, at this stage, that someone with 10-12 is going to get an L513+ result?
Yes, I'm pretty sure of it. It may be very infrequent though. I don't know.  DF23* with 481=22 may be very infrequent too. We don't know.

Quote from: rms2
I know anything is possible, but I don't want to recommend that members spend their hard-earned money on a test that is not likely to get them a positive result.
To be consistent, you should add a cautionary email stating that if you are 481<=22 the odds are against you being DF23+. I didn't look, but how many of our French L21+ folks are 481=22, the L21 modal?

On the other hand, you couldn't say the same thing about DF21. There is no single STR that is off-modal among all DF21 people.  Perhaps DF21 is the first SNP every L21* firm cluster or unassigned individual should test for.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2012, 12:51:36 AM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
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« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2012, 12:26:54 AM »

Have we detected a cluster that is solidly 492=12 and yet U106+?
Your argument appears to be one of exception.

However, such exceptions can be found. There is a cluster of L48+ 425=null 492=12 people.

On the other side of the coin, there are quite a number of P312+ U106- 492=13 people. There is a strong cluster of U152+ L2+ 492=13 438=13 people.

The most noteworthy exception is the whole U152+ Z56+ clade. It is solid 492=14....  when STR based SNP predictors would probably have said they must be U106+.



« Last Edit: February 20, 2012, 12:27:29 AM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
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« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2012, 07:15:40 AM »

Mike,

The exceptions are minimal (unless you know of large numbers of 492=12 U106+ folks) and prove the rule. Of the thousands of U106+ guys, how many have 492=12? Given that small figure, would you solicit the 492=12 members of a project for which you are responsible to pay for U106 testing themselves, if U106 were like L513 and had to be ordered a la carte? (I might do it, but only with a warning that there is little chance of a positive result.)

I realize L513 is your personal terminal SNP and thus of real interest to you, but when I recommend something to members of the R-L21 Plus Project, I like them to have some real chance of success.

Marching through each and every L21 haplotype cluster or apparent cluster in the search for a possible L513+ is systematic and may be admirable science, but paying to be part of it isn't something I personally want to recommend to the average project member with 10-12 at 406S1 and 617, not when so many have already tested and come up empty.

Remember, I never said those with 10-12 have no chance of coming up L513+. But I do think at this point little chance or almost no chance would be a fair way to characterize their prospects. (That is why I don't order it myself. I have only so much dna money.)

By the way, I included the same sort of caveat for DF23 in my bulk email that I included for L513, and I made DF23 the last SNP listed in terms of likely chance of success.

Anyway, I included L513 in my bulk email and did not warn against testing for it. I just said that there is a greater chance of a positive result if one has 11-13 at 406S1 and 617.

Quote
. . .

With L513, you are more likely to get a positive result if you have 406S1=11 and 617=13 in combination (you need 67 str  markers to check this).

With DF23, you are more likely to get a positive result if your value at 481 is greater than 22, with values of 24 and higher apparently increasing the likelihood. Again, you need 67 str markers to check this.


. . .

When we were paying for so many L21 and Deep Clade tests, back in the heat and fury of very early L21 discovery, I did not mind at all taking chances with people whose haplotypes gave no indication or even counter indications of success. I wasn't asking them to put up their own money.

And that is the difference.

(But even then I tried to weed out those who obviously had almost no chance of being L21+.)

Hopefully FTDNA will add L513 to its Deep Clade soon and render this discussion moot.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2012, 07:46:49 AM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #19 on: February 20, 2012, 09:19:50 AM »

Mike,

The exceptions are minimal (unless you know of large numbers of 492=12 U106+ folks) and prove the rule. Of the thousands of U106+ guys, how many have 492=12? Given that small figure, would you solicit the 492=12 members of a project for which you are responsible to pay for U106 testing themselves, if U106 were like L513 and had to be ordered a la carte? (I might do it, but only with a warning that there is little chance of a positive result.)

I realize L513 is your personal terminal SNP and thus of real interest to you, but when I recommend something to members of the R-L21 Plus Project, I like them to have some real chance of success.

Marching through each and every L21 haplotype cluster or apparent cluster in the search for a possible L513+ is systematic and may be admirable science, but paying to be part of it isn't something I personally want to recommend to the average project member with 10-12 at 406S1 and 617, not when so many have already tested and come up empty.

Remember, I never said those with 10-12 have no chance of coming up L513+. But I do think at this point little chance or almost no chance would be a fair way to characterize their prospects. (That is why I don't order it myself. I have only so much dna money.)

By the way, I included the same sort of caveat for DF23 in my bulk email that I included for L513, and I made DF23 the last SNP listed in terms of likely chance of success.

Anyway, I included L513 in my bulk email and did not warn against testing for it. I just said that there is a greater chance of a positive result if one has 11-13 at 406S1 and 617.

Quote
. . .

With L513, you are more likely to get a positive result if you have 406S1=11 and 617=13 in combination (you need 67 str  markers to check this).

With DF23, you are more likely to get a positive result if your value at 481 is greater than 22, with values of 24 and higher apparently increasing the likelihood. Again, you need 67 str markers to check this.


. . .

When we were paying for so many L21 and Deep Clade tests, back in the heat and fury of very early L21 discovery, I did not mind at all taking chances with people whose haplotypes gave no indication or even counter indications of success. I wasn't asking them to put up their own money.

And that is the difference.

(But even then I tried to weed out those who obviously had almost no chance of being L21+.)

Hopefully FTDNA will add L513 to its Deep Clade soon and render this discussion moot.

I just recommend a more systematic, consistent approach.

To be frank, I don't think it is consistent to push DF23 when we know that all 481<=22 people so far are DF23-, plus DF23 has had a more thorough testing of 481=22 (L21 modal) people than L513 has of 617=12 (L21 modal) people. I'll repeat these #s on negative hits for the two SNPs.

DF23- tested=104, Firm Varieties:35 (39.3%) and Unassigned:35

L513- tested=77, Firm Varieties:28 (31.5%) and Unassigned:29

Of the French L21+ people I'm aware of, these are the ones with 481>=23.

f176268   Gontaut __ R-L21/L96   EW Aquitaine & Pyrenees
fE5171   Rotrou ___ R-L21   EW Fra North & Central
f73834   Landon ___ R-L21   EW Fra z unk
f127515   Dupuis____ R-L21   EW Fra North Atlantic
f160587   Bodine____ R-L21   EW Fra North Atlantic
f182980   Georgel___ R-L21   EW Fra Northeast
fN82517   Pontbriant R-L21   EW Aquitaine & Pyrenees

f18917   Brun _____ R-L21/DF23*   EW Fra North Atlantic
f57411   Fournier__ R-L21/DF23/M222   EW Fra North Atlantic
f78065   Lamphier__ R-L21/DF23*   EW Aquitaine & Pyrenees
fN92711   LeProvost_ R-L21/DF23*   EW Fra North & Central

Of course, the bottom set is already proven DF23+ while the top seven are have not been tested. These would be the prime candidates, from my perspective.

I can count 27 French L21+ who are 481<=22. Two are already tested DF23-, two are L513+ and one is Z255/L159.2+. Hopefully the latter three know they can't be DF23+.  Anyway, we are left with 22 French 481<=22 folks that could be tested for DF23. I think they should, but I think it would be a surprise if one comes out DF23+ since we have over a hundred 481<=22 people who are 100% DF23-.

Well, I've hit you pretty hard with this. Sorry. I realize you don't guarantee results and add in the appropriate caveats. Its no big deal anyway. No one is right and no one is wrong. We just do the best we can with what we are aware of and what we think. It's a volunteer business and you are the best haplogroup project admin out there!

What do you think about L96? We have a WTY M222, Kit f192014, who is negative for L96. Notice that f176268 Gontaut is a good is a good prospect for DF23. Wouldn't that be something if we found a DF23 brother for M222 in L96?

... Hopefully FTDNA will add L513 to its Deep Clade soon and render this discussion moot.
Here! Here!  I just hope the Z255 guys and FTDNA get their positioning with L159.2 figured out so Z255 can be placed in such a future deep clade package.

There are so many SNPs now I wonder if FTDNA will continue to package one universal offering.  
« Last Edit: February 20, 2012, 09:41:36 AM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
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« Reply #20 on: February 20, 2012, 09:50:56 AM »

Thanks, Mike. I agree; you're probably right.

Hopefully they'll all decide it's worth the risk of 29 bucks and will order L513.

I appreciate your mathematical expertise. (I need to find a convenient book to show me how to do some of these calculations. I was pretty good at math at one time, but it's been years and years since I took Statistics in college. Maybe there is a Statistics for Dummies book out there for me?)
« Last Edit: February 20, 2012, 09:51:36 AM by rms2 » Logged

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« Reply #21 on: February 20, 2012, 06:07:03 PM »

I dont suppose FTDNA would do a big four new SNP  package deal for people still stuck at L21*? 
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« Reply #22 on: February 20, 2012, 07:28:38 PM »

.... I need to find a convenient book to show me how to do some of these calculations....
Most of the math I'm doing is just add, subtract, divide, etc. The hard part is playing tricks in Excel to be able to quickly pick out just the haplotypes you want, be it the right geography, SNP + or - , haplogroup or whatever.  I guess the GD calculations are a little tricky too.

For variance I'm just using the built-in MS Excel variance for a partial population function.

The most advanced math I'm using is just Ken Nordtvedt's spreadsheet. I don't really understand his statistical model.  I just put another couple of tabs in front of it to make it easy to import large amounts of data from my haplotypes spreadsheets.

All of the hard work is really classifying people into the right clusters (which is speculative)  and looking up the county/province information from the city/village/parish info or whatever was put in the paternal origin field.  It's a pain to try to integrate WTY SNP results or those from deCodeMe, etc.  That's all manual.

BTW, saw the broadcast email for the project. Looks good.  Worst case, at least more people know these SNPs exist for L21.
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« Reply #23 on: February 20, 2012, 07:30:04 PM »

I dont suppose FTDNA would do a big four new SNP  package deal for people still stuck at L21*? 
I have heard they have done special stuff like that in the past. I don't know if they'd make any money on it, though.
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« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2012, 12:09:32 AM »

Here are the non-Isles European MDKA surnames and locations for the Big Four - DF23, L513, DF21, Z253 - and also Z255 subclades. The haplogroup/SNP testing is shown. The variety label is also shown. Some listed below are of a variety (STR signature) that has positive SNP results even though this particular kit may not have been.


FRANCE ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DF23:
f18917 __ Brun _________ R-L21/DF23* ______ 23-1411 ______ France, Poitou-Charentes
73834 ___ Landon _______ R-L21 ____________ 23-1421 ______ France
f191044 _ Corse ________ Predicted ________ 23-NW-44724 __ France
f57411 __ Fournier _____ R-L21/DF23/M222 __ 23-NW-unassi _ France, Poitou-Charentes, Charente-Maritime, Marans
f78065 __ Lamphier _____ R-L21/DF23* ______ 23-unassi ____ France, Languedoc-Roussillon
fN92711 _ Le Provost ___ R-L21/DF23* ______ 23-unassi ____ France, Basse-Normandie, Avranches

L513 & L705.2:
f85844 __ Bergeron _____ R-L21/L513/L705 __ 513-1113-B2 __ France, Poitou-Charentes, Charente-Maritime, La Rochelle
f72604 __ Couture ______ Predicted ________ 513-1113-B2 __ France, Haute-Normandie, Seine-Maritime, Rouen
f150405 _ Turpin _______ R-L21/L513 _______ 513-1113-FA __ France, Bassie-Normandie, Manche, Brécey

Z255 & L159.2:
f206686 _ Gaston ______ Predicted ________ 255-1830-IS* __ France
f55943 __ Schneider ___ R-L21/Z255/L159 __ 255-1830-IS-C _ France, Lorraine, Moselle, Montbronn


GERMANY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DF23/M222:
f24073 __ zzzUnk(Stroup R-L21/DF23/M222 __ 23-NW-1922 ____ Germany
f55501 __ Fortineux ___ R-L21/DF23/M222 __ 23-NW-389a14 __ Germany, Rhineland-Palatinate, Kaiserslautern, Otterberg
f115552 _ Everett _____ R-L21/DF23/M222 __ 23-NW-43714 ___ Germany, Baden-Württemberg, Stuttgart
f50389 __ Brune _______ R-L21/DF23/M222 __ 23-NW-unassi __ Germany
f156802 _ Fortineux ___ R-L21/DF23/M222 __ 23-NW-unassi __ Germany
f109460 _ Keltner _____ Predicted ________ 23-NW-unassi __ Germany, Baden-Württemberg, Mosbach
fN14949 _ Lominac _____ R-L21/DF23/M222 __ 23-NW-unassi __ Germany

L513:
f179222 _ Miller ______ Predicted ________ 513-1113-M ____ Germany
f113882 _ Müller ______ R-L21/L513 _______ 513-unassi ____ Germany, Thuringia, Saalfeld-Rudolstadt, Oberweißbach

DF21 & P314.2:
f208773 _ Reith _______ Predicted ________ 21-314-P ______ Germany, Lower Saxony, Hanover
f148632 _ Immler ______ R-L21_____________ 21-1722 _______ Germany, Bavaria 21-1722
f62278 __ Baumgaertner_ Predicted ________ 21-425n-A1 ____ Germany, Baden-Württemberg, Stuttgart, Heilbronn
f37416 __ Kern ________ Predicted ________ 21-425n-A1 ____ Germany

Z255 & l59.2:
fN47848 _ Adams _______ R-L21/Z255/L159 __ 255-1830-IS-A _ Germany, Lower Saxony, Hannover
f30522 __ Probst ______ Predicted ________ 255-1830-IS-B1_ Germany, Baden-Württemberg, Rhein-Neckar-Kreis, Hoffenheim


BENELUX ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

L513:
fN3933 __ Ammerlaan ___ R-L21/L513 _______ 513-unnassi ___ Netherlands, South Holland, Wilsveen
f184065 _ Jones _______ R-L21 ____________ 513-unnassi ___ Netherlands

DF21 & P314.2 & Z246:
fN28650 _ Conrardy ____ R-L21/DF21/P314* _ 21-314-P13-B __ Luxembourg, Pratz
fE9807 __ Kaptein _____ R-L21/DF21/Z246* _ 21-246-unassi__ Netherlands

Z253:
f76285 __ Woods _______ Predicted ________ 253-1310-T4 ___ Netherlands
f76285 __ Woods _______ Predicted ________ 253-1310-T4 ___ Netherlands


NORDIC COUNTRIES ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DF23 & M222:
fE2711 __ Berge _______ R-L21 ____________ 23-22 _________ Norway, Hordaland, Strandebarm
f200859 _ Gjon ________ R-L21 ____________ 23-22 _________ Norway
fN36461 _ Heihiller ___ R-L21 ____________ 23-22 _________ Norway
fN55657 _ Skaar _______ R-L21/DF23/M222 __ 23-NW-389b17 __ Norway, Vestlandet, Co. Rogaland, Utsira

L513:
fN67917 _ Ekholm ______ Predicted ________ 513-1113-B2 ___ Sweden, Södermanland, Stockholm
fN29541 _ Sunnesson ___ R-L21/L513/L705 __ 513-1113-B2 ___ Sweden, Kalmar län, Tibbhult

DF21:
fN5924 __ Måland ______ R-L21/DF21/P314* _ 21-1113-P13-B _ Norway, Rogaland, Hjelmeland
f61096 __ Hedrickson __ R-L21 ____________ 21-425n-A1-B __ Sweden, Värmland län, Fryksände

Z253:
f132118 _ Bankston ____ R-L21 ____________ 253-1117-F ____ Sweden
f98444 __ Bryan _______ Predicted ________ 253-1189-T3-B1_ Denmark
f162176 _ Falch _______ R-L21/Z253* ______ 253-unassi ____ Norway, Hordaland, Ølfernes

Z255 & L159.2:
fN14161 _ Olsson ______ R-L21/Z255/L159 __ 255-1830-IS* __ Norway, Nordland, Laksaa
fN82019 _ Synnset _____ R-L21/Z255/L159 __ 255-1830-IS* __ Norway, Sør-Trøndelag, Gauldal, Melhus
f125806 _ Duoos _______ R-L21/Z255/L159 __ 255-1830-IS-A _ Norway
f198811 _ Jørgensen ___ R-L21/Z255/L159 __ 255-1830-IS-A _ Norway, Nordland Co., Svolvær
f211524 _ UlvestadbakkenR-L21/Z255/L159 __ 255-1830-IS-D _ Norway, Vestlandet, Møre og Romsdal, Vatne
yKCUQZ __ Øverland ____ R-L21 ____________ 255-1830-G ____ Norway


OTHER NON-ISLES COUNTRIES
---------------------------------------------------------------------

DF23:
fN46295 _ Bonnet ______ R-L21 ____________ 23-1411 ______ Italy, Piedmont, Montoulles, Chambonsn (Waldensian French)

L513:
yDZRKP __ Unknown _____ R-L21/L513/L69/P66 513-1113-A2 __ Italy

Z253:
fE4785 __ Gerber ______ R-L21/Z253* ______ 253-1310 _____ Switzerland, Bern, Oberaargau, Herzogenbuchsee
fN93033 _ Amuchástegui_ R-L21/Z253* ______ 253-1211 _____ Spain, Basque Country, Biscay, Lea-Artibai, Markina
f58857 __ Archuleta ___ R-L21 ____________ 253-1211 _____ Spain, Basque Country, Guipuzcoa, Eibar
f128223 _ Calzada _____ R-L21 ____________ 253-1211 _____ Spain
f66434 __ Davila ______ R-L21/Z253* ______ 253-1211 _____ Spain
f82247 __ Garcia ______ R-L21 ____________ 253-1211 _____ Spain
f67597 __ Robles ______ R-L21 ____________ 253-1211 _____ Spain
f167768 _ Romero ______ R-L21 ____________ 253-1211 _____ Spain
f46334 __ Sampedro ____ R-L21/Z253* ______ 253-1211 _____ Spain, Cantabria, Matienzo
fN43805 _ Lenares _____ R-L21 ____________ 253-1518 _____ Spain
f58625 __ Guerra ______ R-L21/Z253*_______ 253-unnassi __ Spain
f143916 _ Rodriguez ___ R-L21/Z253________ 253-unnassi __ Spain
« Last Edit: February 21, 2012, 12:11:21 AM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>L705.2
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