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Author Topic: R1b-L21/S145 Subclades - time estimates and more  (Read 3072 times)
Mike Walsh
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« on: January 24, 2012, 04:12:09 PM »

The question was asked on another thread about the timing of relationship of Irish Type III and IV since they are now proven to be under Z253. I'm opening up this thread because I'll provide information on all the major subclades of L21.

I have calculated coalescence ages and intraclade TMRCA estimates but they are not as reliable as interclade TMRCA estimates. These are all using Ken Nordtvedt's method with 67 length haplotypes only.

Most Closely (recently) Related Subclades

Z253 & Z255 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 2.7 (3.2-2.1)  N=515

Z255 & DF21 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 2.8 (3.4-2.2)  N=573

Z253 & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 2.9 (3.4-2.4)  N=452

Z255 & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.1 (3.9-2.3)  N=367

1030A-Sc & Z255 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.1 (3.9-2.3)  N=581

Z253 & DF21 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 3.1 (3.6-2.6)  N=662

L513 & Z255 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 3.2 (3.8-2.5)  N=813

1030A-Sc & Z253 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.4 (4.0-2.7)  N=666

1030A-Sc & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA __ 3.4 (4.2-2.7)  N=518

Z253 & L513 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 3.4 (3.8-2.9)  N=898

1030A-Sc & 1511A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA __ 3.4 (4.2-2.7)  N=518

DF21 & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.5 (4.2-2.8)  N=510

1030A-Sc & DF21 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.6 (4.3-2.8)  N=724

L513 & DF21 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 3.7 (4.3-3.1)  N=956

DF23 & Z255 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 3.8 (4.8-2.8)  N=857

L513 & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.9 (4.6-3.2)  N=750

1030A-Sc & L513 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 4.2 (5.0-3.4)  N=964

Z253 & DF23 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 4.3 (5.3-3.4)  N=942

DF23 & DF21 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 4.4 (5.4-3.4)  N=1000

1030A-Sc & DF23 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 4.6 (5.7-3.5)  N=1008

DF23 & L513 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 4.9 (5.9-3.9)  N=1240

DF23 & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 5.3 (6.5-4.0)  N=794


Here is the answer on Irish Type III and IV, both of which fall under Z253 with some Iberians and other misc folks.

L226/T3 & 1310-T4 Interclade Z253* _ 2.7 (3.4-2.0)  N=231

more to come...

« Last Edit: January 26, 2012, 11:01:26 AM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>S6365>L705.2(&CTS11744,CTS6621)
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« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2012, 04:36:29 PM »

Here is a little more description of some of the key subclades.

Z255 Irish Sea / Leinster haplotype modal people. L159.2 is downstream and seems connected to 464X=2c2g. It is on both sides of the Irish Sea but it is also over in Scandinavia. I don't really see evidence for a Leinster origin STR-wise, but some key surnames, like Kavanaugh, are Leinster.

Z253 Irish III (L226) and Irish IV both fit under this along with L554 and some misc Z253* including some of Iberian descent.

1030A-Sc Traditional Scots modal but EthoAncestry used to say it was Pictish. Very heavy in Scotland and Ulster.

DF21 Old subclade that encompasses P314.2, DF21 and S190 and null425 Airghelli I. P314.2 is quite scattered. S190 might mark the Little Scots Cluster.

425n-A1 Airghelli I modal haplotype known for large group of 425=null people. Is also called Clan Colla and of course has a focus in the north of Ireland.

M222  North West Irish. Very prolific fairly clade. Supposed to be associated with the Nial of Nine Hostages but I can't see the connection looking in as an outsider. Very much Ulster and Scottish lowland focused but I think it is older in England.

DF23 Upstream of M222. Also contains Wales/SW England modal people.

L513 The 11-13 Combo group. Scattered over the Isles and also into Scandinavia and the continent. Some say Old Briton, some Flemish, some Gaelic and some Norman. Old enough to all of the above.

L69?/1113-A2 Airghelli II. A member of the L513+ 11-13 family. Focused on Monaghan and Armaugh.

L193/1113-A1 A member of the L513+ 11-13 family. Focused quite heavily on the Scottish Borders area with a number of surnames from the Scottish Border Reivers era. Lots of Elliott's, Little's, Sinclair's, Clendinning's, McClains' along with a few others. Pretty good sized group that appears to be young.

1115A-T2 Irish Type II, aka as South Irish although I can't say that it is restricted to the south of Ireland.

L226/T3 L226+, which falls under Z253. Irish Type III/Dalcassian. L226 seems to be very focused on Munster.

1310-T4 Irish Type IV/Continental falls under Z253. 1310-T4 is scattered all over Western Europe. Some say connected to the Normans.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2012, 11:29:12 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2012, 05:21:12 PM »

Did you notice Irish Sea, Irish III and Irish IV/Cont all have a common ancestor about 700 BC?   ... the same man for all three.


Z253 & Z255 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 2.7 (3.2-2.1)  N=515
...

L226/T3 & 1310-T4 Interclade Z253* _ 2.7 (3.4-2.0)  N=231
« Last Edit: January 24, 2012, 08:49:43 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2012, 06:03:40 PM »

L513 had another baby.  L705.2 was added to the ISOGG tree yesterday.  Cigars all around.
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« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2012, 10:34:46 AM »

L513 had another baby.  L705.2 was added to the ISOGG tree yesterday.  Cigars all around.
Yea!!! Now, I hope some day FTDNA will include this in their deep clade package.

L705.2 seems to run in a pair with L706.2 under L513. The coalescence age is 1.0k ybp with a one sigma range of 1.3-0.7k. The two sigma (95% confidence interval) is 1.5-0.5k.

Here are the large surname groups that match the STR signature:

Barrett (Co. Mayo, Ireland)
Banks (?)
Walsh/Welch/Welsh (Co. Kilkenny, Ireland)
Morgan (Monmouthshire, Wales)
Watkins (England)

Here are the onesie/twosie surnames:

Jones (Wales)
Adams (Shropshire, England)
Bergeron (La Rochelle, France)
Holmberg (Etela-Suomi, Finland)
Sunneson (Kalmar län, Sweden)
Munnerlyn (Ireland)
Morris (Monmouthshire, Wales)
Evans (Glamorganshire, Wales)
Phillips (England)
Stephens (?)
Smith (England)
Edwards (?)
Buckley (?)

It would seem most likely to be a Western England/Wales version of some kind of Old Briton, although that doesn't explain the folks from the Baltic Sea area.

Both these Barrett's and these Walsh's of Ireland have a Cambro-Norman tradition with a South Wales origin. We have a number of conflicting pedigrees so some of the options are Walynus/Valinesis, FitzStephen, de Clare, de Barri, Bareid, and Nest ferch Rhys (female-side.)
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« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2012, 03:23:07 PM »

Both these Barrett's and these Walsh's of Ireland have a Cambro-Norman tradition with a South Wales origin. We have a number of conflicting pedigrees so some of the options are Walynus/Valinesis...

I wonder if that one is just the Latinized place name with an "-ensis" ending -- I think that's locative, but Latin grammar is a dim memory.  Anyway, meaning "from Wales."  In which case Walsh and Valensis, or something close to that, would be pretty much the same name.

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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2012, 06:15:54 PM »

Did you notice Irish Sea, Irish III and Irish IV/Cont all have a common ancestor about 700 BC?   ... the same man for all three.

If that is the case then (assuming Irish Sea is Z253 negative) then that would mean Z253 is younger than 700BC. Is that a correct understanding? 

 I am having trouble picturing this, not to mention that they are descended from one man c. 700BC. 
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Heber
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« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2012, 08:38:28 AM »

Mike,
I created a strawman which attempts to explain the Phylogenic Tree of M269. Morbihan would appear to be a central hub in the four ages Atlantic, Megalithic, Copper, Bronze and Iron.
Of course I could also create a similar Rivers route which would include U106 and U152.
As always I am wary of the age estimates but it is the best I have to go with at the moment.

http://m.box.com/view_shared/d0nr7768zv18ht6tk28i

https://www.box.net/shared/pf653l1r181ry7r61ix4
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Heber


 
R1b1a2a1a1b4  L459+ L21+ DF21+ DF13+ U198- U106- P66- P314.2- M37- M222- L96- L513- L48- L44- L4- L226- L2- L196- L195- L193- L192.1- L176.2- L165- L159.2- L148- L144- L130- L1-
Paternal L21* DF21


Maternal H1C1



Mike Walsh
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« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2012, 06:27:19 PM »

I've created two charts that are graphic timelines for the large R-L21 subclades and clusters. Both charts show the one and two sigma confidence ranges using Ken Nordtvedt's Generations7 methodology using 67 length haplotypes only.

The MRCA chart shows only interclade node MRCA's for each pairing of L21's major subclades. For instance DF23's and L513's interclade MRCA is calculated. This would be an estimate of the time back to the one man who was the most recent ancestor for both lineages. Of course, he could be neither L513+ nor DF23+ and would be L21*. The older pairings let us fence in the possible minimum age of L21's MRCA.   On the other side, the interclade MRCA's for U152 & L21 and Z196 & L21 pairing would give us maximum ages for L21's MRCA.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/RL21Project/files/Haplogroup_R-L21_Subclades_MRCA_Timeline.jpg

The coalescence chart shows the intraclade time to coalescence for each of the major L21 subclades. These ages are helpful for assessing the earliest time of significant expansion. Of course, this would be post any bottleneck and post the actual TMRCA for the respective subclade.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/RL21Project/files/Haplogroup_R-L21_Subclades_Coalescence_Timeline.jpg

The confidence intervals (sigma ranges) do not account for errors in mutation rates. As you know, there are varied opinions on this. These are the standard rates that Ken uses.  He excludes some multi-copy markers like DYS464.

Given the best information I have, my opinion is that L21's MRCA was between 2900 and 2200 BC. The actual first L21 man was probably towards the earlier part of that age.

Many of the lineages of L21 apparently started to diversify into different areas in NW Europe during the period from about 2500 BC to 500 BC.

About 500 BC and on up until 1000 AD many of L21's subclades began to grow significantly.

There is no rocket science to this interpretation. I'm just reading the charts.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2012, 06:32:38 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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NealtheRed
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« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2012, 01:04:41 PM »

I've created two charts that are graphic timelines for the large R-L21 subclades and clusters. Both charts show the one and two sigma confidence ranges using Ken Nordtvedt's Generations7 methodology using 67 length haplotypes only.

The MRCA chart shows only interclade node MRCA's for each pairing of L21's major subclades. For instance DF23's and L513's interclade MRCA is calculated. This would be an estimate of the time back to the one man who was the most recent ancestor for both lineages. Of course, he could be neither L513+ nor DF23+ and would be L21*. The older pairings let us fence in the possible minimum age of L21's MRCA.   On the other side, the interclade MRCA's for U152 & L21 and Z196 & L21 pairing would give us maximum ages for L21's MRCA.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/RL21Project/files/Haplogroup_R-L21_Subclades_MRCA_Timeline.jpg

The coalescence chart shows the intraclade time to coalescence for each of the major L21 subclades. These ages are helpful for assessing the earliest time of significant expansion. Of course, this would be post any bottleneck and post the actual TMRCA for the respective subclade.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/RL21Project/files/Haplogroup_R-L21_Subclades_Coalescence_Timeline.jpg

The confidence intervals (sigma ranges) do not account for errors in mutation rates. As you know, there are varied opinions on this. These are the standard rates that Ken uses.  He excludes some multi-copy markers like DYS464.

Given the best information I have, my opinion is that L21's MRCA was between 2900 and 2200 BC. The actual first L21 man was probably towards the earlier part of that age.

Many of the lineages of L21 apparently started to diversify into different areas in NW Europe during the period from about 2500 BC to 500 BC.

About 500 BC and on up until 1000 AD many of L21's subclades began to grow significantly.

There is no rocket science to this interpretation. I'm just reading the charts.

Mike,

Thank you for posting the above files. I have to admit that I am not familiar with the statistical significance of such, however. When I open the second (coalescence) file, I notice a range of dates for Z255: from 400 AD to 800 AD.

Can Mike or someone explain what this means? I would like to translate some of this into layman's knowledge for my project.
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Y-DNA: R-Z255 (L159.2+) - Downing (Irish Sea)


MTDNA: HV4a1 - Centrella (Avellino, Italy)


Ysearch: 4PSCK



Mike Walsh
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« Reply #10 on: February 02, 2012, 09:50:07 PM »

When I open the second (coalescence) file, I notice a range of dates for Z255: from 400 AD to 800 AD.

Can Mike or someone explain what this means? I would like to translate some of this into layman's knowledge for my project.
Below are the actual results from Nordtvedt's method. The ranges listed below are one sigma or "most likely" ranges. The probability that the actual dates fall within these ranges is 68%. On the chart this is the light green area.

The two sigma ranges are not shown below although they are shown on the chart as the extended orange areas. Two sigma ranges might be considered "almost certain." The probability that the actual dates fall with in the two sigma ranges is 95%.

These ranges are based on some assumptions, including the mutation rates are correct, at least on average.  Another assumption is that the data sample is somewhat representative.

This is the straight forward estimate for the age to Z255's most recent common ancestor, a single man.
Z255 Intraclade MRCA _____________ 1.4 (1.5-1.3) _ N=215
There is a problem with intraclade calculations though. They can be biased by an extreme number of a particular lineage in the clade.  It is for these reasons that we look at the other results, particularly the interclade results.

This is an estimate of the time of coalescence. This represents the time the clade expanded and started diversifying.  
Z255 Intraclade Coalescence ______ 1.3 (1.5-1.2) _ N=215
The problem of bias is not so important in this result. We are not looking for the age of a single man just his family started to really grow. This time may actually be more important as this might be tied to major cultural expansions. One thing to note about this age is that it puts a floor or minimum on the age of Z255.

This is a an estimate of the most recent common ancestor of the lineage of Z255 AND Z253 people.  This individual would had to have been R-L21*. The reason I chose Z253 to pair with is that Z253 happens to be the subclade of L21 that is most closely related to Z255.
Z255 & Z253 Interclade L21* MRCA _ 2.7 (3.2-2.1) _ N=515
The cool thing about this age is that it puts a ceiling or maximum on the age of Z255, the SNP itself, not just the MRCA for Z255, but the actual first man with Z255+.

« Last Edit: February 03, 2012, 11:27:24 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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NealtheRed
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« Reply #11 on: February 02, 2012, 11:03:50 PM »

When I open the second (coalescence) file, I notice a range of dates for Z255: from 400 AD to 800 AD.

Can Mike or someone explain what this means? I would like to translate some of this into layman's knowledge for my project.
Below are the actual results from Nordtvedt's method. The ranges listed below are one sigma or "most likely" ranges. The probability that the actual dates fall within these ranges is 68%. On the chart this is the light green area.

The two sigma ranges are not show below although they are shown on the chart as the extended orange areas. Two sigma ranges might be considered "almost certain." The probability that the actual dates fall with in the two sigma ranges is 95%.

These ranges are based on some assumptions, including the mutation rates are correct, at least on average.  Another assumption is that the data sample is somewhat representative.

This is the straight forward estimate for the age to Z255's most recent common ancestor, a single man.
Z255 Intraclade MRCA _____________ 1.4 (1.5-1.3) _ N=215
There is a problem with intraclade calculations though. They can be biased by an extreme number of a particular lineage in the clade.  It is for these reasons that we look at the other results, particularly the interclade results.

This is an estimate of the time of coalescence. This represents the time the clade expanded and started diversifying.  
Z255 Intraclade Coalescence ______ 1.3 (1.5-1.2) _ N=215
The problem of bias is not so important in this result. We are not looking for the age of a single man just his family started to really grow. This time may actually be more important as this might be tied to major cultural expansions. One thing to note about this age is that it puts a floor or minimum on the age of Z255.

This is a an estimate of the most recent common ancestor of the lineage of Z255 AND Z253 people.  This individual would had to have been R-L21*. The reason I chose Z253 to pair with is that Z253 happens to be the subclade of L21 that is most closely related to Z255.
Z255 & Z253 Interclade L21* MRCA _ 2.7 (3.2-2.1) _ N=515
The cool thing about this age is that it puts a ceiling or maximum on the age of Z255.



Mike,

Much thanks again for this! So the age of expansion for Z255 is roughly 700 AD? I am a lot more interested in this Z253 connection as well now that a relationship has been established.
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Y-DNA: R-Z255 (L159.2+) - Downing (Irish Sea)


MTDNA: HV4a1 - Centrella (Avellino, Italy)


Ysearch: 4PSCK



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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2012, 05:19:30 AM »

The question was asked on another thread about the timing of relationship of Irish Type III and IV since they are now proven to be under Z253. I'm opening up this thread because I'll provide information on all the major subclades of L21.

I have calculated coalescence ages and intraclade TMRCA estimates but they are not as reliable as interclade TMRCA estimates. These are all using Ken Nordtvedt's method with 67 length haplotypes only.

Most Closely (recently) Related Subclades

Z253 & Z255 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 2.7 (3.2-2.1)  N=515

Z255 & DF21 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 2.8 (3.4-2.2)  N=573

Z253 & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 2.9 (3.4-2.4)  N=452

Z255 & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.1 (3.9-2.3)  N=367

1030A-Sc & Z255 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.1 (3.9-2.3)  N=581

Z253 & DF21 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 3.1 (3.6-2.6)  N=662

L513 & Z255 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 3.2 (3.8-2.5)  N=813

1030A-Sc & Z253 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.4 (4.0-2.7)  N=666

1030A-Sc & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA __ 3.4 (4.2-2.7)  N=518

Z253 & L513 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 3.4 (3.8-2.9)  N=898

1030A-Sc & 1511A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA __ 3.4 (4.2-2.7)  N=518

DF21 & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.5 (4.2-2.8)  N=510

1030A-Sc & DF21 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.6 (4.3-2.8)  N=724

L513 & DF21 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 3.7 (4.3-3.1)  N=956

DF23 & Z255 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 3.8 (4.8-2.8)  N=857

L513 & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 3.9 (4.6-3.2)  N=750

1030A-Sc & L513 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 4.2 (5.0-3.4)  N=964

Z253 & DF23 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 4.3 (5.3-3.4)  N=942

DF23 & DF21 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 4.4 (5.4-3.4)  N=1000

1030A-Sc & DF23 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 4.6 (5.7-3.5)  N=1008

DF23 & L513 Interclade L21* MRCA __________ 4.9 (5.9-3.9)  N=1240

DF23 & 1115A-T2 Interclade L21* MRCA ______ 5.3 (6.5-4.0)  N=794


Here is the answer on Irish Type III and IV, both of which fall under Z253 with some Iberians and other misc folks.

L226/T3 & 1310-T4 Interclade Z253* _ 2.7 (3.4-2.0)  N=231

more to come...



Are these numbers,"before present"?
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2012, 03:07:31 PM »

Are these numbers,"before present"?

I think the Excel files, from which Mike has cut and pasted these data, have a header over that column that says "Kybp," meaning [4.4 (5.4 - 3.4), or whatever other values are there] thousand years before present.  Probably, the header just doesn't copy.
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« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2012, 12:30:03 AM »

Are these numbers,"before present"?

I think the Excel files, from which Mike has cut and pasted these data, have a header over that column that says "Kybp," meaning [4.4 (5.4 - 3.4), or whatever other values are there] thousand years before present.  Probably, the header just doesn't copy.
Sorry. Yes, thousands of years before present.
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« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2012, 04:38:07 PM »

I think this chart is the best depiction I have of integrating the R1b-L21 phylogeny with a timeline based on interclade nodes and coalescence ages.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/RL21Project/files/Haplogroup_R-L21_Tree-Timeline.jpg

It is a descendancy tree for L21 subclade SNPs overlaid on a timeline. The triangles represent points of demarcation or separation where a lineage appears to have broken away from the rest of L21. Each triangle does not represent the MRCA for a particular SNP or cluster, but just when the ancestry for that SNP/lineage apparently was last related to any of the other large subclades/lineages.. so it is at the point that the lineage "broke away." I used interclade TMRCA calculations for multiple pairs of L21 subclades and varieties to come up with these points.

Stars or exploding blobs are intended to signify coalescence ages. This would be the time of initial expansion for a lineage. In the cases of our largest lineages, i.e. M222, DF21, L513, I tried to resize the stars slightly so that the would reflect their modern relative population.

All of the ages were calculated using Ken Nordtvedt's Generations7 methodology and as many 67 length haplotypes as I could find. The ages should be seen as approximations and are subject to mutation rate arguments.

I think we can overlay this timeline with archaeological and historical information and enhance our discussion of the origin and expansions of R1b-L21 and its subclades.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2012, 05:49:43 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2012, 07:12:29 PM »

I think this chart is the best depiction I have of integrating the R1b-L21 phylogeny with a timeline based on interclade nodes and coalescence ages.
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/RL21Project/files/Haplogroup_R-L21_Tree-Timeline.jpg

It is a descendancy tree for L21 subclade SNPs overlaid on a timeline. The triangles represent points of demarcation or separation where a lineage appears to have broken away from the rest of L21. Each triangle does not represent the MRCA for a particular SNP or cluster, but just when the ancestry for that SNP/lineage apparently was last related to any of the other large subclades/lineages.. so it is at the point that the lineage "broke away." I used interclade TMRCA calculations for multiple pairs of L21 subclades and varieties to come up with these points.

Stars or exploding blobs are intended to signify coalescence ages. This would be the time of initial expansion for a lineage. In the cases of our largest lineages, i.e. M222, DF21, L513, I tried to resize the stars slightly so that the would reflect their modern relative population.

All of the ages were calculated using Ken Nordtvedt's Generations7 methodology and as many 67 length haplotypes as I could find. The ages should be seen as approximations and are subject to mutation rate arguments.

I think we can overlay this timeline with archaeological and historical information and enhance our discussion of the origin and expansions of R1b-L21 and its subclades.

Mike-that is a very helpful chart.  In terms of interpretation, I think the key is to look upstream from the localised explosion in the historic or late prehistoric period.  What is crucial and may tell us something is the common link between later clades, not the later clades and late SNPs.  The striking thing to me is that many of these localised clades share common ancestry in the late Bronze Age period.  This gives a pretty clear signal that Z293, 513 and DF21and DF23 could have spread to there later scattered areas in the later Bronze Age long after L21.  That raises the question of where these upstream SNPs occurred first but that seems likely to be very hard to answer.  When maps are available for there upstream supergroups as a whole rather than the later clusters it will make it easier to speculate.  Interestingly these upstream SNPs tend to link areas in unexpected ways and do not easily fit the major historical period movements.  For that reason I would tend to think that they dispersed in prehistoric times, probably the Bronze Age if the dating method is correct, and then historic period clusters just kind of randomly happened within the greater distribution of the supergroups like Z293, DF21 etc.  What this refining of the L21 tree demonstrates is that the idea of a single 'main' L21 dispersal soon after the SNP is not looking so likely. 

MIke-why is M222 given such an early date on your tree? 
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« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2012, 10:48:12 PM »

Alan,

How would you interpret this with the anti-migrationist/no significant iron age "Celtic" invasion position?  Were Cunliffe and others right?

It looks like there is subclade cross channel movement in the iron age and up until Roman times.  Large population expansions under Roman rule, incoming Anglo-Saxons, and viking raids is interesting.  Which also begs the question, how many L21's came with the Saxons or vikings?
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« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2012, 06:36:17 PM »

... MIke-why is M222 given such an early date on your tree?  
Simply put, M222's lineage (not necessarily M222 itself) is distinctive and appears to have been an early break away.  We can see that in that the Gen7 interclade age between M222 and 23-15-WSW (Wales South West England) is quite old,  pushing back the age of DF23 to L21's time.

On the other hand, M222's coalescence is quite young. Apparently the "in-between" branches between M222's and much of DF23*'s other lineages died off leaving M222 as kind of lonely.  Nevertheless, it found a way to take off at a later date.  We can speculate about this.  If we wanted to, we could use this as evidence for Jean Manco's La Tene M222 hypothesis. We could say that M222 and many of his DF23* brothers could have hung out in Europe for quite a while.  M222's lineage decided to or had to migrate northwest and eventually found a great place in Ireland.  Unfortunately, many of his DF23* lineage brothers got squashed back on the continent, leaving us with some open space in this side of the L21 phylogenetic tree.

This is a little bit of a new concept to grasp, but we don't necessarily care about the MRCA of an SNP, we can more about the structure and timing of the branches in the tree.  SNP's are just markers on the branches. Actually, Ken N has been trying to educate us on this for some time.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2012, 06:41:12 PM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>S6365>L705.2(&CTS11744,CTS6621)
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« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2012, 07:16:50 PM »

I have thrown together a simple Anatole Klyosov Mutation counting system with corrections for back mutations, and added mutation rate calculator as an add-on section for MikeW's AllHts sheet.

Download and copy and paste the add-on section from my sheet into correct cell in Mikew's spreadsheet. Enable Macro's and then set the sheet to 67 Markers using the Red macro button.

Cells A5037 down to 5041 show the Number of Generations, Age before present at 25 yrs per generation, the number of mutations counted and the calculated overall mutation rate percentage at 67 markers. There are individual STR mutation Rates shown. Granular filter settings of individual HG's, clusters etc can be drilled down numbers above or below baseline Haplotype of the sheet. This could require a few seconds to several minutes to calculate the results in the above cells.

This is in beta and can be extended to 111 markers sheet later.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0By9Y3jb2fORNZjM0NWM3ODMtMmMyNi00ZmM1LTk4ZTYtMmFhMDc3MDI5ZDUy

Click File and then click download original and save it.
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148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
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« Reply #20 on: February 10, 2012, 10:07:51 PM »

I just noticed that Mike just expanded the number of rows in the latest sheet that he published. So the previous add-on is moot. Here is the modified version.

Edit:  Update- 1) Copy A5235 to CB5685 and paste into MikeW spreadsheet at A5235


https://docs.google.com/open?id=0By9Y3jb2fORNYjU4ZTVjMGYtOThlZS00ZDM0LWE5MDctY2MwNDA1YzQ4OThl
« Last Edit: February 11, 2012, 01:47:25 PM by Mark Jost » Logged

148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
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« Reply #21 on: February 13, 2012, 09:05:39 AM »

Alan,

How would you interpret this with the anti-migrationist/no significant iron age "Celtic" invasion position?  Were Cunliffe and others right?

It looks like there is subclade cross channel movement in the iron age and up until Roman times.  Large population expansions under Roman rule, incoming Anglo-Saxons, and viking raids is interesting.  Which also begs the question, how many L21's came with the Saxons or vikings?

I had wondered about the Scythians who supposedly conquered the land north of the Black Sea and farmed grain which was traded with the Greeks. Is it possible that many R1b1+ subclades were pushed west and northwest into Europe?
Perhaps central Europe was too heavily populated to move into, compared with northern coastal routes like Scandinavia. From there many could spread as far as Spain,and the Isles. Or maybe there were no R1b1 types there to start with?

(something from wiki) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scythia
After being defeated by the Chinese and driven from the Near East, in the first half of the 6th century BC, Scythians had to re-conquer lands north of the Black Sea. In the second half defeated of that century, Scythians succeeded in dominating the agricultural tribes of the forest-steppe and placed them under tribute. As a result their state was reconstructed with the appearance of the Second Scythian Kingdom which reached its zenith in the 4th century BC.

Edit: I guess 800 years ago would be too late for such an R1b expansion. Perhaps the expansion happened earlier, before the Scythians entered into the arera. (it's just an idea.)
« Last Edit: February 14, 2012, 10:06:31 AM by OConnor » Logged

R1b1a2a1a1b4


R-DF13**(L21>DF13)
M42+, M45+, M526+, M74+, M89+, M9+, M94+, P108+, P128+, P131+, P132+, P133+, P134+, P135+, P136+, P138+, P139+, P14+, P140+, P141+, P143+, P145+, P146+, P148+, P149+, P151+, P157+, P158+, P159+, P160+, P161+, P163+, P166+, P187+, P207+, P224+, P226+, P228+, P229+, P230+, P231+, P232+, P233+, P234+, P235+, P236+, P237+, P238+, P239+, P242+, P243+, P244+, P245+, P280+, P281+, P282+, P283+, P284+, P285+, P286+, P294+, P295+, P297+, P305+, P310+, P311+, P312+, P316+, M173+, M269+, M343+, P312+, L21+, DF13+, M207+, P25+, L11+, L138+, L141+, L15+, L150+, L16+, L23+, L51+, L52+, M168+, M173+, M207+, M213+, M269+, M294+, M299+, M306+, M343+, P69+, P9.1+, P97+, PK1+, SRY10831.1+, L21+, L226-, M37-, M222-, L96-, L193-, L144-, P66-, SRY2627-, M222-, DF49-, L371-, DF41-, L513-, L555-, L1335-, L1406-, Z251-, L526-, L130-, L144-, L159.2-, L192.1-, L193-, L195-, L96-, DF21-, Z255-, DF23-, DF1-, Z253-, M37-, M65-, M73-, M18-, M126-, M153-, M160-, P66-

12 24 14 10 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 18


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« Reply #22 on: February 15, 2012, 09:21:43 PM »

I just noticed that Mike just expanded the number of rows in the latest sheet that he published. So the previous add-on is moot. Here is the modified version.

Edit:  Update- 1) Copy A5235 to CB5685 and paste into MikeW spreadsheet at A5235


https://docs.google.com/open?id=0By9Y3jb2fORNYjU4ZTVjMGYtOThlZS00ZDM0LWE5MDctY2MwNDA1YzQ4OThl
What's this doing? Should I just copy some formulas into the spreadsheet? I mean, is this something the whole group would be interested in?
« Last Edit: February 15, 2012, 09:27:54 PM by Mikewww » Logged

R1b-L21>L513(DF1)>S6365>L705.2(&CTS11744,CTS6621)
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« Reply #23 on: February 16, 2012, 04:33:10 PM »


What's this doing? Should I just copy some formulas into the spreadsheet? I mean, is this something the whole group would be interested in?
I am beta testing this add-on for your spreadsheet Pages: AllHts (67 marker) and ExtHts (111marker).  I had hoped some would try it to see if it made sense to the use and opinons.

I have made a simple Mutation Counting using 'Anatole Klyosov' method with his mutation rates he has specified for 67 and 111 marker and his back mutation adjustment table to create his number of adjusted generations and his age using his 25 years per generation. This calculates on any filtering selected, SNP(s) and/or variety Cluster(s). I then added my 'Revised' Generation (Rgen:) and Ages (Rxage:) at 25,30 and 35 years per generation calculation using a simple mutation rate calcuation from the actual STR allele differences for the selected Filtering.

I just added a COVariance and Pearsons ρ (rho) on each marker in the filtered haplotypes and created a visual chart. This is my attempt to measure differences when adding or remove haplotypes from cluster which is similar to using GD's for best fit (a work in progress)

I am working on creating a 'Mutation Age by Rho' on the GDs between cluster haplotypes (for more than two hts) like Fluxus does to determine a cluster's TMRCA but havent had the chance to work on that yet.

Here is the beta excel spreadsheet (non-Google format) with the individual worksheet pages included that have been updated so far. Click the 'Download' button and save, then open and just copy the section as explained on each worksheet and paste into the your (MikeW's) spread sheet of any flavor assuming they are all layed out the same.

Remember this is my chicken code and could have flaws in logic since I am just a hack. Every thing is open for discussion or fixing.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0By9Y3jb2fORNNTc0YjNkNzctOTlkYy00Y2EyLWJjYjMtNzczMTMzYmQ1ZDc1

MJost
Logged

148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
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« Reply #24 on: February 17, 2012, 01:41:26 PM »

... MIke-why is M222 given such an early date on your tree?  
Simply put, M222's lineage (not necessarily M222 itself) is distinctive and appears to have been an early break away.  We can see that in that the Gen7 interclade age between M222 and 23-15-WSW (Wales South West England) is quite old,  pushing back the age of DF23 to L21's time.

On the other hand, M222's coalescence is quite young. Apparently the "in-between" branches between M222's and much of DF23*'s other lineages died off leaving M222 as kind of lonely.  Nevertheless, it found a way to take off at a later date.  We can speculate about this.  If we wanted to, we could use this as evidence for Jean Manco's La Tene M222 hypothesis. We could say that M222 and many of his DF23* brothers could have hung out in Europe for quite a while.  M222's lineage decided to or had to migrate northwest and eventually found a great place in Ireland.  Unfortunately, many of his DF23* lineage brothers got squashed back on the continent, leaving us with some open space in this side of the L21 phylogenetic tree.

This is a little bit of a new concept to grasp, but we don't necessarily care about the MRCA of an SNP, we can more about the structure and timing of the branches in the tree.  SNP's are just markers on the branches. Actually, Ken N has been trying to educate us on this for some time.

Mike, if I recall correctly your tree placed p314.2 in the AD range, not as old as was being suggested a few months back.  That puzzles me.  p314.2 was being discussed at one time as being maybe 3000 years old but now that sort of date is being suggested for DF21 as a whole.  I am a bit confused. 
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