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Author Topic: R-L21: New SNP Z253 found in Iberians, ancestral for L226  (Read 59469 times)
rms2
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« Reply #175 on: March 11, 2012, 12:07:39 PM »

We just got a couple of newly-minted French R-Z253 (L226-): Bellieres and Le Bras, who are in the R-Z253 (L226-) category at the R-L21 Plus Project now.

So, now Z253 has broken into France. The first two of many?
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« Reply #176 on: March 12, 2012, 06:40:23 PM »

We just got a couple of newly-minted French R-Z253 (L226-): Bellieres and Le Bras, who are in the R-Z253 (L226-) category at the R-L21 Plus Project now.

So, now Z253 has broken into France. The first two of many?
France could be thick with Z253. With Z253 in Switzerland, Spain and the Isles, some had to get lost in France....   or maybe that was home.

I looked at the Z253 STRs and including the French and I thought I found a pattern, but it is so sketchy, people just need to test for the SNP.
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« Reply #177 on: March 12, 2012, 06:43:26 PM »

We just got a couple of newly-minted French R-Z253 (L226-): Bellieres ..
Has fE5371 Bellieres tested for L226?
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rms2
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« Reply #178 on: March 12, 2012, 08:00:45 PM »

We just got a couple of newly-minted French R-Z253 (L226-): Bellieres ..
Has fE5371 Bellieres tested for L226?

No, but his haplotype isn't anything like the L226+ haplotypes.
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #179 on: March 12, 2012, 08:54:55 PM »

We just got a couple of newly-minted French R-Z253 (L226-): Bellieres and Le Bras, who are in the R-Z253 (L226-) category at the R-L21 Plus Project now.

So, now Z253 has broken into France. The first two of many?
France could be thick with Z253. With Z253 in Switzerland, Spain and the Isles, some had to get lost in France....   or maybe that was home.

I looked at the Z253 STRs and including the French and I thought I found a pattern, but it is so sketchy, people just need to test for the SNP.


A pattern? Now Mike, you cant say something like that and then not tell us!
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JeanL
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« Reply #180 on: March 13, 2012, 03:11:31 PM »

From this recently published study:

http://mbe.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/03/12/molbev.mss091.abstract

On the supplementary table-S3a list the following frequencies for R-L21 in different Basques and nonBasque populations:

R-L21

Gascony

Bigorre: 3/44
Bearn: 8/56
Chalosse: 6/58

French Basque

Lapurdi/Baztan: 12/44
Lapurdi Nafarroa: 9/66
Zuberoa: 3/53

Navarra

Roncal and Salazar valleys: 11/53
Central Western Nafarroa:9/60
North Western Nafarroa: 5/51

Spanish Basque

Gipuzkoa: 9/47
SouthWestern Gipuzkoa: 13/57
Araba: 11/51
Bizkaia: 7/57
Western Bizkaia: 2/19

North Spain

Cantabria: 0/18
Burgos: 0/20
La Rioja: 6/54
North Aragon: 1/27
« Last Edit: March 13, 2012, 03:12:06 PM by JeanL » Logged
rms2
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« Reply #181 on: March 13, 2012, 07:15:00 PM »

Wow!

Those are some pretty respectable percentages among the Gascons and Basques.

Hmmm . . .
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alan trowel hands.
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« Reply #182 on: March 13, 2012, 08:02:16 PM »

From this recently published study:

http://mbe.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/03/12/molbev.mss091.abstract

On the supplementary table-S3a list the following frequencies for R-L21 in different Basques and nonBasque populations:

R-L21

Gascony

Bigorre: 3/44
Bearn: 8/56
Chalosse: 6/58

French Basque

Lapurdi/Baztan: 12/44
Lapurdi Nafarroa: 9/66
Zuberoa: 3/53

Navarra

Roncal and Salazar valleys: 11/53
Central Western Nafarroa:9/60
North Western Nafarroa: 5/51

Spanish Basque

Gipuzkoa: 9/47
SouthWestern Gipuzkoa: 13/57
Araba: 11/51
Bizkaia: 7/57
Western Bizkaia: 2/19

North Spain

Cantabria: 0/18
Burgos: 0/20
La Rioja: 6/54
North Aragon: 1/27


Kind of confirms that L21 is far higher among basques than most Iberian folks.  I am surprised by the low result in Cantabria.  Myres used Santander which is in Cantabria and got the Iberian peak there for L21 (he didnt test the Basques).  The project map also has a peak in the same zone
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IALEM
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« Reply #183 on: March 13, 2012, 08:23:41 PM »

I think it confirms what we already knew, that Basques are closer to Gascons than to Iberians, and that they are more representative of a SW France (ancient Aquitanian) population than Iberians. It is in concordance with the theory of a late arrival of Basques to modern Spanish Basque country.
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Y-DNA L21+


MDKA Lope de Arriçabalaga, born c. 1390 in Azcoitia, Basque Country

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« Reply #184 on: March 15, 2012, 10:10:34 PM »

We just got a couple of newly-minted French R-Z253 (L226-): Bellieres and Le Bras, who are in the R-Z253 (L226-) category at the R-L21 Plus Project now.

So, now Z253 has broken into France. The first two of many?

To be honest, I am pulling for Z253 on the Continent, and am pleased to see it is found in France, Switzerland, and Spain.

Mike's numbers say Z253 is a close cousin to Z255, so more Continentals can improve our chances at finding a common ancestor there!
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Y-DNA: R-Z255 (L159.2+) - Downing (Irish Sea)


MTDNA: HV4a1 - Centrella (Avellino, Italy)


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OConnor
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« Reply #185 on: March 19, 2012, 07:30:34 AM »

The reconquest of Spain from the Moors involved many groups including Normans.
Could most Spanish L21 like L226 have entered Spain at this time from France?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconquista
« Last Edit: March 19, 2012, 07:31:31 AM by OConnor » Logged

R1b1a2a1a1b4


R-DF13**(L21>DF13)
M42+, M45+, M526+, M74+, M89+, M9+, M94+, P108+, P128+, P131+, P132+, P133+, P134+, P135+, P136+, P138+, P139+, P14+, P140+, P141+, P143+, P145+, P146+, P148+, P149+, P151+, P157+, P158+, P159+, P160+, P161+, P163+, P166+, P187+, P207+, P224+, P226+, P228+, P229+, P230+, P231+, P232+, P233+, P234+, P235+, P236+, P237+, P238+, P239+, P242+, P243+, P244+, P245+, P280+, P281+, P282+, P283+, P284+, P285+, P286+, P294+, P295+, P297+, P305+, P310+, P311+, P312+, P316+, M173+, M269+, M343+, P312+, L21+, DF13+, M207+, P25+, L11+, L138+, L141+, L15+, L150+, L16+, L23+, L51+, L52+, M168+, M173+, M207+, M213+, M269+, M294+, M299+, M306+, M343+, P69+, P9.1+, P97+, PK1+, SRY10831.1+, L21+, L226-, M37-, M222-, L96-, L193-, L144-, P66-, SRY2627-, M222-, DF49-, L371-, DF41-, L513-, L555-, L1335-, L1406-, Z251-, L526-, L130-, L144-, L159.2-, L192.1-, L193-, L195-, L96-, DF21-, Z255-, DF23-, DF1-, Z253-, M37-, M65-, M73-, M18-, M126-, M153-, M160-, P66-

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IALEM
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« Reply #186 on: March 19, 2012, 08:19:50 AM »

The reconquest of Spain from the Moors involved many groups including Normans.
Could most Spanish L21 like L226 have entered Spain at this time from France?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconquista
It could be for L-21 in regions of Spain in which is found in low percentages. Also some English were involved in the Reconquista, for instance the first christian lord of the castle of Elda (The town I am living presently in SE Spain) was an English knight.
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MDKA Lope de Arriçabalaga, born c. 1390 in Azcoitia, Basque Country

JeanL
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« Reply #187 on: March 19, 2012, 11:10:03 AM »

In that case we should expect some significant portions of R-L21 in the Canary Islands, more specifically the Islands of Lazarote and Fuerteventura which were conquered by Normans such as Jean de Bethencourt, Maciot de Bethencourt, etc.
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OConnor
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« Reply #188 on: March 19, 2012, 05:38:44 PM »

I haven't read up on those Islands.
Perhaps there is, or perhaps there isn't any?

I have heard of one in Sicily.
Though I can't claim this person has a Norman ancestor.

It's just an open question of mine.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2012, 05:46:33 PM by OConnor » Logged

R1b1a2a1a1b4


R-DF13**(L21>DF13)
M42+, M45+, M526+, M74+, M89+, M9+, M94+, P108+, P128+, P131+, P132+, P133+, P134+, P135+, P136+, P138+, P139+, P14+, P140+, P141+, P143+, P145+, P146+, P148+, P149+, P151+, P157+, P158+, P159+, P160+, P161+, P163+, P166+, P187+, P207+, P224+, P226+, P228+, P229+, P230+, P231+, P232+, P233+, P234+, P235+, P236+, P237+, P238+, P239+, P242+, P243+, P244+, P245+, P280+, P281+, P282+, P283+, P284+, P285+, P286+, P294+, P295+, P297+, P305+, P310+, P311+, P312+, P316+, M173+, M269+, M343+, P312+, L21+, DF13+, M207+, P25+, L11+, L138+, L141+, L15+, L150+, L16+, L23+, L51+, L52+, M168+, M173+, M207+, M213+, M269+, M294+, M299+, M306+, M343+, P69+, P9.1+, P97+, PK1+, SRY10831.1+, L21+, L226-, M37-, M222-, L96-, L193-, L144-, P66-, SRY2627-, M222-, DF49-, L371-, DF41-, L513-, L555-, L1335-, L1406-, Z251-, L526-, L130-, L144-, L159.2-, L192.1-, L193-, L195-, L96-, DF21-, Z255-, DF23-, DF1-, Z253-, M37-, M65-, M73-, M18-, M126-, M153-, M160-, P66-

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OConnor
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« Reply #189 on: March 20, 2012, 08:05:58 AM »

In that case we should expect some significant portions of R-L21 in the Canary Islands, more specifically the Islands of Lazarote and Fuerteventura which were conquered by Normans such as Jean de Bethencourt, Maciot de Bethencourt, etc.

Lazarote
As of 2010, a total of 139,000 people lived on Lanzarote[2] which is an increase of 9.4% from 2006 (127,000).[3] The seat of the island government (Cabildo Insular) is in the capital, Arrecife, which has a population of 59,000.[2] The majority of the inhabitants (73.9%) are Spanish, with a sizable number of residents from other European nations, mainly British (4.0%), Germans (2.6%) and Irish (2.5%).[4] Other populous groups include immigrants from Colombia, Morocco, Ecuador, Western Africa, China and India, which constitute a large proportion of the remaining 15.6% of the population. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanzarote

I would guess that Lazarote could have some L21.
Though they could have Spanish, Irish, German, British or Norman roots.

There is a Canary Islands DNA Project.
http://www.familytreedna.com/public/Guanches-CanaryIslandsDNA/default.aspx?section=yresults
« Last Edit: March 20, 2012, 08:11:55 AM by OConnor » Logged

R1b1a2a1a1b4


R-DF13**(L21>DF13)
M42+, M45+, M526+, M74+, M89+, M9+, M94+, P108+, P128+, P131+, P132+, P133+, P134+, P135+, P136+, P138+, P139+, P14+, P140+, P141+, P143+, P145+, P146+, P148+, P149+, P151+, P157+, P158+, P159+, P160+, P161+, P163+, P166+, P187+, P207+, P224+, P226+, P228+, P229+, P230+, P231+, P232+, P233+, P234+, P235+, P236+, P237+, P238+, P239+, P242+, P243+, P244+, P245+, P280+, P281+, P282+, P283+, P284+, P285+, P286+, P294+, P295+, P297+, P305+, P310+, P311+, P312+, P316+, M173+, M269+, M343+, P312+, L21+, DF13+, M207+, P25+, L11+, L138+, L141+, L15+, L150+, L16+, L23+, L51+, L52+, M168+, M173+, M207+, M213+, M269+, M294+, M299+, M306+, M343+, P69+, P9.1+, P97+, PK1+, SRY10831.1+, L21+, L226-, M37-, M222-, L96-, L193-, L144-, P66-, SRY2627-, M222-, DF49-, L371-, DF41-, L513-, L555-, L1335-, L1406-, Z251-, L526-, L130-, L144-, L159.2-, L192.1-, L193-, L195-, L96-, DF21-, Z255-, DF23-, DF1-, Z253-, M37-, M65-, M73-, M18-, M126-, M153-, M160-, P66-

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ironroad41
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« Reply #190 on: April 21, 2012, 09:28:13 AM »

 I just tested positive for Z253 and so did the Clan Gregor moderator.  My haplotype is unlike any other tested so far.  My other handle is Mcg11.
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« Reply #191 on: April 21, 2012, 01:18:08 PM »

I just tested positive for Z253 and so did the Clan Gregor moderator.  My haplotype is unlike any other tested so far.  My other handle is Mcg11.
Congratulations.
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« Reply #192 on: April 23, 2012, 11:23:54 AM »

I looked at your age estimate for Z253 Mike, and I know it is consistent with your other work, but as I've noted before, I have a great deal of difficulty reconciling the haplotype I have z5hg3 (Ysearch) with your age estimates of this subclade.  I know I don't fit the mold, but I have been tested positive for this SNP.

Ironroad, here are the folks closest to you in the L21 file.  They are at GDs of 4 through 14 to you.  Notice they seem to fit in to Z253 varieties (clusters) so it appears like the STRs are aligning with Z253 for these folks.

f35981____ McGregor_________________ R-L21/Z253*__________________ 253-1223____________ Z5HG3___ Scotland, Tayside, Perthshire and Kinross, Kinloch Rannoch, Aulich
f62717____ Turner___________________ R-L21________________________ 253-1223____________ BXZDC___ zzzUnkOrigin
fN14578___ zzzUnknown_______________ R-L21________________________ 253-1223____________ ___ zzzUnkOrigin
f15796____ Sammons__________________ R-L21________________________ 253-1223____________ K3UA9___ England
f165405___ Darnell__________________ R-L21________________________ 253-1223____________ U3C86___ England
f166686___ Healy____________________ R-L21________________________ 253-1223____________ VUD7A___ Ireland
f86086____ Kiely____________________ R-L21/Z253*__________________ 253- unassigned_____ APPVH___ Ireland, Leinster, Co. Waterford, Ballynamult, Tooraneena Parish
f102526___ Mangum___________________ zzPredicted__________________ 253-1711-M__________ ___ zzzUnkOrigin
f178942___ Hall_____________________ R-L21________________________ zzL21unassigned_____ ___ zzzUnkOrigin


The first four of you (McGregor, Turner, zzzUnknown,  Sammons) are all 393=12 390=23 391=10 607=16 520=19. Darnell and Healy have the same signature except they are 393=13.  To me, this imples that the mutation to 393=12 was the most recent of the signature.

Do these geographic locations and surnames mean anything?
« Last Edit: April 23, 2012, 11:26:22 AM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #193 on: April 23, 2012, 12:20:02 PM »

I just tested positive for Z253 and so did the Clan Gregor moderator.  My haplotype is unlike any other tested so far.  My other handle is Mcg11.

Congrates on Finding your new SNP Mcg11!!!

What do you think about the Iberian connection?

Also how was last years wine?

MJost
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148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
ironroad41
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« Reply #194 on: April 23, 2012, 04:24:47 PM »

I looked at your age estimate for Z253 Mike, and I know it is consistent with your other work, but as I've noted before, I have a great deal of difficulty reconciling the haplotype I have z5hg3 (Ysearch) with your age estimates of this subclade.  I know I don't fit the mold, but I have been tested positive for this SNP.

Ironroad, here are the folks closest to you in the L21 file.  They are at GDs of 4 through 14 to you.  Notice they seem to fit in to Z253 varieties (clusters) so it appears like the STRs are aligning with Z253 for these folks.

f35981____ McGregor_________________ R-L21/Z253*__________________ 253-1223____________ Z5HG3___ Scotland, Tayside, Perthshire and Kinross, Kinloch Rannoch, Aulich
f62717____ Turner___________________ R-L21________________________ 253-1223____________ BXZDC___ zzzUnkOrigin
fN14578___ zzzUnknown_______________ R-L21________________________ 253-1223____________ ___ zzzUnkOrigin
f15796____ Sammons__________________ R-L21________________________ 253-1223____________ K3UA9___ England
f165405___ Darnell__________________ R-L21________________________ 253-1223____________ U3C86___ England
f166686___ Healy____________________ R-L21________________________ 253-1223____________ VUD7A___ Ireland
f86086____ Kiely____________________ R-L21/Z253*__________________ 253- unassigned_____ APPVH___ Ireland, Leinster, Co. Waterford, Ballynamult, Tooraneena Parish
f102526___ Mangum___________________ zzPredicted__________________ 253-1711-M__________ ___ zzzUnkOrigin
f178942___ Hall_____________________ R-L21________________________ zzL21unassigned_____ ___ zzzUnkOrigin


The first four of you (McGregor, Turner, zzzUnknown,  Sammons) are all 393=12 390=23 391=10 607=16 520=19. Darnell and Healy have the same signature except they are 393=13.  To me, this imples that the mutation to 393=12 was the most recent of the signature.

Do these geographic locations and surnames mean anything?

I can tell you about Turner, he is a NPE.  His father was apparently a brother to my ggggggf c. 1700 AD.  I did a TMRCA and it turned out close between him and me.  This was a brother of my direct ancestor who settled in NC c. 1690+.   I doubt if he has been tested Z253, but I'm sure he would be positive.

The others have no direct relationship to me that I am aware of.  I have done a TMRCA between the Clan Gregor Moderator and  myself and the Clan Gregor chieftain.  I used two approaches: for the moderator I compared 59 STR''s and used Chandlers and the set of 110 rates from 2011. I got c. 200 AD for Chandlers rates and c. 550BC for the 110 data set.  For the chieftain, I followed Busbys recommendation and only looked at the 13 slowest FtDNA markers which we differ at two: 388 and 495.   I got a TMRCA of c. 13k BC!! I personally believe that the Chief is of Hallstatt origin who migrated to what is now Belgium and then were ousted by the Romans and they migrated to Ireland, where they became what is now called South Irish and later Dal Riadans.

For the latter result to make any sense, some of the following has to be true: 1.  There were at least two waves of migration out of Iberia which eventually ended up in the British Isles.  The first had to be pretty early.   Robert L. Tarin, Jr. has collected a lot of data on Iberia.   The frequency of 393 = 12 in early Iberians is almost 9% while later groups of R1b show only a 3% level.  For some of us, I think we have carried that mutation for a long, long time?  Departure from Iberia could have been a complex route with even a stop in doggerland as a possibility.  This at the present time is pure speculation on my part.  That said, I will continue to argue that my haplotype is different than most R-L21's and began quite early in the R-L21 cycle.  JMHO
« Last Edit: April 23, 2012, 04:26:30 PM by ironroad41 » Logged
razyn
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« Reply #195 on: April 23, 2012, 07:04:05 PM »

The frequency of 393 = 12 in early Iberians is almost 9% while later groups of R1b show only a 3% level.  For some of us, I think we have carried that mutation for a long, long time?  Departure from Iberia could have been a complex route with even a stop in doggerland as a possibility.  This at the present time is pure speculation on my part.

According to the famously un-juried Wikipedia entry, "Doggerland became submerged beneath the North Sea, cutting off what was previously the British peninsula from the European mainland by around 6500 BCE."  Given that you are talking about a clade that didn't exist (to arrive in its Iberian point of departure) until a few thousand years later, what were they doing during their Doggerland stopover... doggerpaddling?

This is a wild exaggeration, but the idea is that the math of one theory can't possibly be bent to fit the other.  So one theory or the other is clearly (and badly) mistaken.  For the time being, anyway, I think it's Mike who has the more credible evidence.  Not that our voting on it is going to resolve the question -- but there is a question.
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« Reply #196 on: April 23, 2012, 07:16:31 PM »

....  I have done a TMRCA between the Clan Gregor Moderator and  myself and the Clan Gregor chieftain.  I used two approaches: for the moderator I compared 59 STR''s and used Chandlers and the set of 110 rates from 2011. I got c. 200 AD for Chandlers rates and c. 550BC for the 110 data set.  For the chieftain, I followed Busbys recommendation and only looked at the 13 slowest FtDNA markers which we differ at two: 388 and 495.   I got a TMRCA of c. 13k BC!! I personally believe that the Chief is of Hallstatt origin who migrated to what is now Belgium and then were ousted by the Romans and they migrated to Ireland, where they became what is now called South Irish and later Dal Riadans.....
Are the Gregor Moderator and Chieftain Z253?  If they aren't, your relationship to them has to be at least two thousand years ago.

As far as using only the 13 slowest markers, per Busby, I don't recommend that at all. That's just not enough markers and particularly since you are looking for relationships in the historical timeframe I don't think the linear duration of STRs will be a big problem in your analysis.

« Last Edit: April 23, 2012, 07:17:01 PM by Mikewww » Logged

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« Reply #197 on: April 23, 2012, 08:36:41 PM »

....  I have done a TMRCA between the Clan Gregor Moderator and  myself and the Clan Gregor chieftain.  I used two approaches: for the moderator I compared 59 STR''s and used Chandlers and the set of 110 rates from 2011. I got c. 200 AD for Chandlers rates and c. 550BC for the 110 data set.  For the chieftain, I followed Busbys recommendation and only looked at the 13 slowest FtDNA markers which we differ at two: 388 and 495.   I got a TMRCA of c. 13k BC!! I personally believe that the Chief is of Hallstatt origin who migrated to what is now Belgium and then were ousted by the Romans and they migrated to Ireland, where they became what is now called South Irish and later Dal Riadans.....
Are the Gregor Moderator and Chieftain Z253?  If they aren't, your relationship to them has to be at least two thousand years ago.

As far as using only the 13 slowest markers, per Busby, I don't recommend that at all. That's just not enough markers and particularly since you are looking for relationships in the historical timeframe I don't think the linear duration of STRs will be a big problem in your analysis.

@IronR, Mike shows the age of Z253 is around 400BC to 0AD leaving about 1500 years to L21?  Doggerland disappeared about 6,500 or 6,200 BCE. L11 is only about 4500 years old. I do not see Doggerland as a possible route.
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148326
Pos: Z245 L459 L21 DF13**
Neg: DF23 L513 L96 L144 Z255 Z253 DF21 DF41 (Z254 P66 P314.2 M37 M222  L563 L526 L226 L195 L193 L192.1 L159.2 L130 DF63 DF5 DF49)
WTYNeg: L555 L371 (L9/L10 L370 L302/L319.1 L554 L564 L577 P69 L626 L627 L643 L679)
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« Reply #198 on: April 24, 2012, 07:04:19 AM »

....  I have done a TMRCA between the Clan Gregor Moderator and  myself and the Clan Gregor chieftain.  I used two approaches: for the moderator I compared 59 STR''s and used Chandlers and the set of 110 rates from 2011. I got c. 200 AD for Chandlers rates and c. 550BC for the 110 data set.  For the chieftain, I followed Busbys recommendation and only looked at the 13 slowest FtDNA markers which we differ at two: 388 and 495.   I got a TMRCA of c. 13k BC!! I personally believe that the Chief is of Hallstatt origin who migrated to what is now Belgium and then were ousted by the Romans and they migrated to Ireland, where they became what is now called South Irish and later Dal Riadans.....
Are the Gregor Moderator and Chieftain Z253?  If they aren't, your relationship to them has to be at least two thousand years ago.

As far as using only the 13 slowest markers, per Busby, I don't recommend that at all. That's just not enough markers and particularly since you are looking for relationships in the historical timeframe I don't think the linear duration of STRs will be a big problem in your analysis.


The moderator is the chief is not, and therefore the Ian Cam are not.  I agree with your observation re: the time of the founding of Clan Gregor.  I do not need to worry about linearity in that time frame, just have to be careful to use unique mutational events and none of the faster or more complex dys loci, such as CDY a,b and 385a,b or the 464 series.  Within the 700 years or so, I am quite confident there have been no hidden mutations.  I try to keep my TMRCA estimates under 1K years to minimize that problem.  I believe it is OK to hop-scotch back in time as I did when I converged the Buchanans, MacMillans, R1b MacDonalds and Clan Gregor back to the South Irish in Ireland c. 50 to 200 BC.

Note:  supporting the concept of random mutations, one Ian Cam has a 426 mutation.  I usually don't include his haplotype in the set I analyze because it adds about 200 years to the TMRCA, since I have only about 40 independent entries.
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ironroad41
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Posts: 219


« Reply #199 on: April 24, 2012, 07:11:58 AM »

The frequency of 393 = 12 in early Iberians is almost 9% while later groups of R1b show only a 3% level.  For some of us, I think we have carried that mutation for a long, long time?  Departure from Iberia could have been a complex route with even a stop in doggerland as a possibility.  This at the present time is pure speculation on my part.

According to the famously un-juried Wikipedia entry, "Doggerland became submerged beneath the North Sea, cutting off what was previously the British peninsula from the European mainland by around 6500 BCE."  Given that you are talking about a clade that didn't exist (to arrive in its Iberian point of departure) until a few thousand years later, what were they doing during their Doggerland stopover... doggerpaddling?

This is a wild exaggeration, but the idea is that the math of one theory can't possibly be bent to fit the other.  So one theory or the other is clearly (and badly) mistaken.  For the time being, anyway, I think it's Mike who has the more credible evidence.  Not that our voting on it is going to resolve the question -- but there is a question.

I thought that "red flag" would catch your eye.  Yes there is a question of how you model all this.  As mike has said, even the experts can't decide on the appropriate model.  I spent a lot of time on the Busby paper this winter and also pondered again the Zhivotovsky conundrum.  At the present time, I don't see evidence that the Drunkards Walk model is a good model of the Y STR mutational process.  I would be interested in you presenting the "credible evidence" mike has and your reasons for the Variance/ASD diversity model as the best model of this process.

I believe it is healthy to review the basic assumptions implied in this work and compare it carefully to whatever data we have.  I would like to keep personal opinion out of the process.
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